Sports Betting

The 2021 Major League Baseball postseason began with a bang on Tuesday, as the Boston Red Sox sent the New York Yankees home with an impressive 6-2 victory in the American League Wild Card Game. 

On Wednesday, the National League take center stage when the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers host the St. Louis Cardinals with a spot in the divisional series on the line. 

With three of the four divisional-round matchups set, here's how things stand in the MLB playoffs right now. 

THE 2021 MLB PLAYOFFS ARE SET 😤 pic.twitter.com/TkkpY33yud

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 3, 2021

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2021 MLB Division Series Matchups (Best-of-5)

American League: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

American League: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros

National League: St. Louis Cardinals/Los Angeles Dodgers winner vs. San Francisco Giants

National League: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers

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World Series Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers (+390; bet $100 to win $390)

Houston Astros (+440)

Tampa Bay Rays (+500)

San Francisco Giants (+550)

Chicago White Sox (+700)

Boston Red Sox (+850)

Milwaukee Brewers (+900)

Atlanta Braves (+1200)

St. Louis Cardinals (+2000)

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

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Key Storyline: Dodgers Depth

One of the biggest reasons the Los Angeles Dodgers have gone 255-129 over the past three seasons is their roster depth. No team in MLB has been better at accumulating more talent than the defending World Series champions. 

Coming into this postseason, though, that depth is going to be tested. Clayton Kershaw and Max Muncy are both dealing with arm injuries. 

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has already said Kershaw is unlikely to pitch in the postseason. 

While this is a significant blow to Los Angeles' pitching staff, the team has already gotten accustomed to playing without the three-time Cy Young winner. He missed more than two months during the regular season with forearm inflammation. 

The Dodgers are still stacked in the rotation with Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias in the top three spots. Scherzer, who has a 1.98 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 68.1 innings since being acquired on July 30, will start against the Cardinals on Wednesday night. 

Muncy dislocated his elbow in Sunday's regular-season finale. The first baseman hasn't been ruled out for the playoffs, but Roberts told reporters there's a "glimmer of hope" he could return later if they continue to advance. 

The Muncy injury is probably more significant than Kershaw's because it could force Cody Bellinger into a prominent role. The 2019 NL MVP was the second-worst hitter in terms of MLB wOBA this season with a minimum of 350 plate appearances.  

One thing that could help to ease the pain of Muncy's absence is if Mookie Betts can return to his usual form. The five-time All-Star had a down season by his standards with an .854 OPS and 23 homers in 122 games. 

The Dodgers will still be running out a lineup with Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Corey Seager. That group is capable of scoring runs in bunches, but the loss of Muncy, Bellinger's season-long struggles and Betts' down season gives them a smaller margin of error in their quest to repeat. 

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Team to Watch: Milwaukee Brewers

It was easy to be overshadowed in the NL this season with the Dodgers and Giants seemingly unable to lose down the stretch in their battle to win the West Division, but the Milwaukee Brewers have the potential to be a postseason giant this October. 

The Brewers are the only team in MLB that can match Los Angeles' top three starting pitchers. Corbin Burnes is a front-runner for the NL Cy Young after a dominant regular season. 

Corbin Burnes has left his mark

• 28 total starts
• 18 quality starts
• 0.94 WHIP (2nd in MLB)
• 2.43 ERA (lowest in MLB)
• 234 strikeouts in 167 innings (12.6 K/9) 1st in MLB

All on a $608,000 salary. A true
home-grown ace. Call him Cy Young pic.twitter.com/NhYDH1vfpS

— IKE Brewers Podcast (@IKE_Brewers) October 4, 2021

Brandon Woodruff, who will start Game 2 against the Atlanta Braves, had a 2.56 ERA and 211 strikeouts in 179.1 innings. Freddy Peralta took a massive leap forward in his fourth MLB season with a 2.81 ERA and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 28 appearances. 

The Brewers will need that rotation to carry them because the lineup is a potential issue in the postseason. Only four of their eight regular position players posted above-average OPS+ totals during the regular season. 

While Bellinger was the second-worst hitter in MLB according to wOBA, Jackie Bradley Jr. managed to be even worse with a .224 mark that included a .163/.236/.261 slash line and 34 OPS+.   

The bullpen also took a huge hit after they clinched the NL Central title on Sept. 26. It was revealed that Devin Williams fractured his right (pitching) hand punching a wall during the celebration in the locker room. 

Williams' absence likely puts a lot more pressure on closer Josh Hader, who wasn't asked to pitch more than one inning in any game during the regular season. He has historically been able to get at least four outs when tasked with doing so, but the additional burden in the playoffs could make him vulnerable to a bad outing. 

Christian Yelich has been consistently inconsistent in 2021. He had an OPS over .800 in March/April, June and August, but the outfielder also had a sub-.700 OPS in May, July and September. If he can harness the good energy and block out the bad, it will go a long way toward helping the Brewers reach their first World Series since 1982. 

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Underrated Team: San Francisco Giants

It's very strange to see a team that outlasted the reigning World Series champions in the NL West and led MLB with 107 wins during the regular season to be an underdog, but that's been the story of the San Francisco Giants in 2021. 

Five of their regular position players are aged 33 or older. Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have had decent seasons in the past, but neither seemed likely to anchor one of the best rotations in MLB. 

Nothing to see here, just Kevin Gausman breaking Tim Lincecum's franchise record for K/9 in a season (minimum 20 starts). pic.twitter.com/0UrSjsMcPc

— Andrew Baggarly (@extrabaggs) October 2, 2021

Even Kris Bryant, their big trade-deadline acquisition, didn't play like a superstar in San Francisco. He had a solid .262/.344/.444 slash line with seven homers and 22 RBI in 51 games. 

Nothing about the Giants on paper added up to them being a juggernaut, yet here we are. It still seems like there's skepticism about their title chances. They only have the fourth-best World Series odds, per FanDuel. 

One drawback for the Giants is they would have to play the Dodgers in the NLDS if Los Angeles beats St. Louis in the Wild Card Game. But San Francisco won their regular-season series 10-9. 

The secret to the Giants' success has been great depth in every facet of the game. The rotation had four starters with ERAs between 2.81 and 3.83, a loaded bullpen and a lineup that has 10 players who hit at least 10 homers (11 if you factor in Bryant's time with the Chicago Cubs; he has 25 this year). 

The Dodgers, Brewers and Chicago White Sox have bigger names at the top of their starting rotations. The Astros, Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox have lineups that can score runs in bunches. 

Nothing about San Francisco's roster is sexy, but all of the pieces fit together so well. After being underestimated all season, the Giants are more than capable of putting a bow on their magical 2021 with a World Series title.  

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Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)

2021 NRFI record: 125-80 (61.0 percent)
2021 YRFI record: 54-52 (50.9 percent)
As posted on Twitter, @TroyHermo


The NRFI has returned. It's back.

The NRFI last week got hot and I, aka "Hermo Maps," took full advantage. Now I'm back above 60 percent, which is where you want to stand at the end of the year. I went 6-0 in NRFIs last week and 5-2 with YRFIs, so overall 11-2 in first-inning props. When the cool air mixes in with pitchers trying to get their clubs into the playoffs and hitters feeling the effects of a grueling 162-game season, the NRFIs start to come back.

In honor of the return of America's favorite bet, I went on the hunt for a huge Hermo Hammer© NRFI we can all feel confident in playing. A hammer so large, not even Thor himself would be worthy of carrying.

Are you ready for this one, NRFI nation? 

For too long we've had to ride the YRFI trend and be disappointed by hot hitters not being ready to play. 

The best part?

The books still haven't woken up to the shift in the force. YRFIs (at least from last week) were still the perennial favorite. I received most of my NRFI wins at plus money or -115, and I hope for the common bettor it stays that way. These props should never be above -125, and that's a hill I'm willing to die on.  

Let's dive into my NRFI of the month and finish August on a great note. 

And you all know how it's done by now. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every YRFI and NRFI line can be found on DraftKings. 

The Hermo Hammer NRFI of the Month

2-Unit Hermo Hammer: Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler) [-115]

I don't call him Walker "NRFI" Buehler for nothing!

Buehler, 27, is already an NRFI legend in my book. In 87 career starts, he has a 1.86 first-inning ERA at a time when most pitchers average around 4.00. In those innings, he averages 3.86 batters faced, which is quite impressive.

Buehler this year is no different: 1.73 first-inning ERA in 26 starts and a smoking 3.61 batters faced. His NRFI record this year is 21-5, with most of his losses being solo homers that were fastballs high in the zone. He's had more control of late, and being in the comfortable setting of Dodger Stadium is a boost. Both Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman are 1-for-5 against Buehler, and he has a 2.92 career ERA against the Braves in two starts. 

Charlie Morton comes into this matchup having the best NRFI season of his career: 20-6 with a 1.75 first-inning ERA at the ripe age of 37. Morton and Rich Hill are like NRFI Benjamin Buttons. What also helps the hammer is that Dodgers' projected leadoff man Trea Turner is 1-for-6 lifetime against Uncle Charlie. No batter in the Dodgers lineup with four or more at-bats has hit over .300 lifetime against Morton. 

The weather report calls for light winds and overall perfect conditions that shouldn't affect ball loft. A good thing for keeping the ball in the park.

Here are the career numbers at Dodger Stadium for the Braves' first five projected hitters:

1. Albies 6-for-26 (.231), 1 HR
2. Soler 0-for-12 (.000), 0 HR
3. Freeman 35-for-113 (.310), 6 HR
4. Riley N/A
5. Swanson 6-for-34 (.176), 0 HR

If we get past Freeman, we cash this NRFI. That simple. 

        

Another 'Mean' NRFI Lean for Your Card

Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) at Seattle Mariners (Yusei Kikuchi)  [-120]

Lance "NRFI Pants" McCullers has been an NRFI machine for the Astros this year with a 17-5 NRFI record and 2.86 first-inning ERA. Kikuchi, a much better NRFI pitcher at home, sports a 3.27 first-inning ERA in 11 starts at T-Mobile Park compared to 4.85 on the road.

      

Hermo's Corner

Stop Chasing and Start Planning

Chasing. It's why 99 percent of us can't make it in this industry.

We lose, we get mad, we double our losses on the next game. Sometimes with little to no research at all. Lose. Get mad and start the process until the bankroll goes cold. 

Sound like you? You're not alone.

It's why only 1 percent of people who gamble on sports make a living off it. The 1 percent have the discipline to not chase and drown themselves. They pick their spots and, most importantly, use safe and fair unit sizes.

Above all, though, they plan.

They have a strategy and never divert from the plan. Start treating sports gambling as an investment and less of a gamble and you will have more success. As previously mentioned, write down and track your bets, rank your bets so you know what the best selections are, and always look for the best information.

Say you do five games a day with one hammer. It forces you to select the best games on the card. Maybe your plan is one huge hammer a day on the game you like the most. Whatever it is, stick to it. Find a strategy that works long-term.

Maybe try different strategies out for a month at a time. Whatever it is, stick with it, never get impulsive and, most importantly, believe in the plan. Every pick justified, every dollar invested you feel confident about.

Remember these two phrases: "Don't force or you will remorse" and "If any bet is in doubt, leave it out."

With football coming around the corner, a lot of gamblers chase Sunday losses into Monday Night Football, making it one of the most bet on sporting events of the week. If you don't like the game, though, don't play it. Save what little money you have left and plan out next week. 

Remember, 60 percent is considered a good season. You're gonna lose 40 percent of the time. 

Don't lose yourself over one week. This hobby is a marathon, not a sprint, and I believe every one of us has it in us to break the 1 percent stigma, that 99 percent of us can't win cuz we're human. With the right guidance and a little luck, we can all make money in this space. Responsibly and the right way. The Hermo way. 

Safe units. Researched picks. Investing mindset, not gambling. Having fun making money on the sports we love.

Let's have a great week, NRFI nation. 

Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning" in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)

• 2021 NRFI record: 117-79 (59.7 percent)
• 2021 YRFI record: 45-47 (48.9 percent)
• As posted on Twitter, @TroyHermo

   

What a bad week for the YRFI and the Hermo map. Almost felt like the NRFI was back for a second. In many of those matchups, I lost miserably, and the YRSI (yes-run second inning) came through. That's why sports gambling is so tough. It can look so good on paper, you will miss it by a swing, and it cashes with ease the next inning.

That's why laying juice is so rough on big YRFI favorites. Speaking of juice, at the bottom of the column I go into "When the juice is on the loose" and explain when playing volatile prop bets at high juice just isn't worth it and the percentages you would have to hit to profit long-term. The math will surprise you. Playing props with below -150 juice is the way to go. Props at -220 or above—they are just not a long-term investment you want to make.

With today's card, I found one juicy YRFI for everyone that has the stats and the ballpark to back it up. Buckle up because we're jumping back on the Big Red YRFI Machine.

And don't forget, whether it's YRFI or NRFI lines, you already know this is the spot to check out for the best analysis.

Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every YRFI and NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.

        

Hermo Lock of the Week: The Big Red YRFI Machine

2-Unit YRFI Hammer: Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks) at Cincinnati Reds (Vladimir Gutierrez) [-125]

Kyle Hendricks has had a rough time in the first inning this year. Despite sporting a 17-7 NRFI record for the season, he has a 7.50 first-inning ERA and averages 4.6 batters faced in the first inning. Meaning there is always danger when Hendricks is starting. To make the YRFI even juicer: Hendricks struggles at Great American Ballpark with a 6-5 NRFI record and 6.16 ERA in his career. Hitters who see Hendricks well in the Reds lineup:

• Jonathan India: 3-for-6 (.500)
• Nick Castellanos: 4-for-13 (.308)
• Joey Votto: 13-for-34 (.382), 4 HR

No Jesse Winker? No problem.

And bettors may be surprised if the Cubs cash this bet before the Reds step to the plate.

But Rafael Ortega is 11-for-21 (.524) in the first inning this year for the depleted Cubs. Frank Schwindel has been hitting well, and Patrick Wisdom and Matt Duffy are threats to hit rookie Vladimir Gutierrez, who is 7-7 NRFI-wise this year with a 7.07 first-inning ERA. This is a YRFI that might sneak under everyone's radar with "Da Wink" on the injured list, but I think the Reds are still in a great position to cash in the homer-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark.

         

Leans

YRFI: Atlanta Braves (Huascar Ynoa) at Miami Marlins (Sandy Alcantara) [+105]

"Mr. First Inning" Ozzie Albies is 7-for-18 (.389) off Alcantara, and if he gets on base it's usually trouble for keeping the Braves off the board in the first frame.

The Braves are the No. 3 YRFI team in MLB. 

Why is this only a lean? Alcantara has not allowed a first-inning run in six of his last seven starts.

          

YRFI: Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes) at St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) [+115]

"Beware of the Birds" special. The Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt is 6-for-13 (.462) versus Burnes, and the Cards have been hot, cashing YRFIs to the tune of 6-3 in their last nine games.

It won't be easy against the Cy Young candidate Burnes, who has allowed a first-inning run just three times in his last 11 outings.

     

Hermo's Corner

When the Juice Is Too Much to Swallow, Just Say No and Focus on Value

Juice. It's delicious in beverage form and an absolute pain in the butt in a sports betting form.

For newbies: Juice is what the sportsbook charges you for that bet. The bigger the favorite and more action a wager gets on it, the more the sportsbook is going to juice it. It looks like "-120" next to your bet. For a $10 bet, that means laying $12 to win $10, so the book is charging $2 in "juice."

The higher the juice, the higher the risk and payout for the book. When playing especially volatile prop bets, it's best to stay away from anything remotely close to -150 and above. Here's why: It takes a ridiculous percentage to be profitable at the end of the year.

Juice and Percentages Needed to Be Profitable:

• 105: 51.2 percent
• 108: 51.9 percent
• 110 (most popular at books): 52.4 percent
• 115: 53.5 percent
• 120: 54.5 percent
• 125: 55.6 percent
• 135: 57.4 percent

Remember when books were juicing NRFIs at -175? You would have to hit close to 70 percent of your games to profit long-term on that. So, when thinking about placing any bet, but especially props such as YRFIs, NRFIs and player props, look for the juice-friendly options. If it's too high and you have any doubts, then stay away. Your wallet and bankroll will thank me.

Also to the books: Let's keep it fair. A 50-50 prop should never be above -135, and I will die on this hill with the rest of NRFI nation. That's why I appreciate DraftKings letting me boost YRFIs for the nation week in and week out. No Winks, no problems. That's our mantra this Tuesday.

I'm proud of all of you, and I appreciate the messages to let me know that my column and the maps posted on Twitter have made a difference, not only for your bottom line but the fun you're having with this awesome hobby of ours: sports investing.

Let's have a day.

We want runs, we want hits, we want a perfect YRFI day in America.

      

Juice percentages via Docsports.com.

Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning" in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)

• 2021 NRFI record: 115-78 (59.6 percent)
• 2021 YRFI record: 42-38 (52.5 percent)
• As posted on Twitter, @TroyHermo

        

How 'bout the column last week? 3-0, and all were all no-doubters. Fifteen minutes easy cash. What first-inning bettors' dreams are made of.

It's been a weird week as the trend of YRFI seemed to stop, and I haven't been able to find a matchup off my "Hermo map" that has popped since Aug. 3.

Luckily for my first-inning warriors, I was able to dig deep on Tuesday's card and find some great selections. As always, make sure to check in on Twitter for updated plays and cards as well as Hermo maps, which are complete stat breakdowns of matchups for your viewing convenience. All free, all on my Twitter.

Who knows what stat you might find in the Hermo map that will push your very own leans into cold, hard locks. Don't let your leans stay leans, and don't ever bet a game blindly.

       

Hermo Lock of the Week:  The Return of Mr. First Inning

2-Unit YRFI Hammer: Cincinnati Reds (Sonny Gray) at Atlanta Braves (Drew Smyly) +100

I always love playing a YRFI when a starter struggles in the first and has bad stats against the hitters in the meat of the lineup.

The Atlanta Braves are sending out Drew Smyly, who has a 11.57 first-inning ERA at Truist Park. Smyly averages 4.42 batters faced in the opening frame, and overall for the year has a below-average 5.68 first-inning ERA, making him a YRFI favorite.

He will be facing a red-hot Cincinnati Reds lineup in the top of the first. Nick Castellanos, who recently returned to the lineup after almost three weeks on the IL, has been very successful against Smyly. Castellanos is 6-for-13 (.462 average) with four doubles.

Leadoff hitter and on-base machine Jonathan India is 2-for-3 lifetime vs. Smyly before Jesse Winker—who went 9-for-19 (.474) last week—steps to the plate, followed by Castellanos. Joey Votto has cooled off on his home run hitting spree but remains a threat to cash the YRFI.

I've called Cincinnati the "Big Red YRFI Machine" this year when its offense is running 100 percent. It's worth noting Smyly barely escaped the Reds in the first inning last time as Votto narrowly missed a homer with two runners on. They are going to cash Tuesday. 

If we go to the bottom of the first scoreless, I fully expect the No. 1 scoring team percentage-wise to come through with a run. The Atlanta Braves score a run in the first inning 34.8 percent of the time, per TeamRankings.com. And Sonny Gray has allowed a first-inning run in three of his last four starts. 

It's a tough top of the lineup to face with "Mr. First Inning" Ozzie Albies, who is batting 28-for-82 (.341) in the opening frame this year, new addition Jorge "Soler Power" and 2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman, who exited Saturday's game with a respiratory infection and could return Tuesday. Also, Austin Riley has been on a tear of late, going 8-for-26 (.308) last week. 

Word on the street is DraftKings might let me boost this one. So be on the lookout for the B/R Betting boost notification and hop on this juicy hammer with me. 

          

1-Unit NRFI: Los Angeles Dodgers (Max Scherzer) at Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola) 

I know what you're thinking.

First-ballot NRFI Hall of Famer Max Scherzer has an impressive 2.79 first-inning ERA in 20 starts and averages only 3.65 batters in the opening frame. He's matching up against the Philadelphia Phillies' Aaron Nola, who is always better at home than on the road NRFI-wise. He sports a 6-3 NRFI record at Citizens Bank, with two of those losses coming against the No. 1 and No. 2 YRFI teams in the league, the Braves and Boston Red Sox.  

I love the cold offensive stats with some of the bigger bats in the lineup such as J.T. Realmuto, who is 5-for-49. The bat to worry about is the new MVP front-runner, Bryce Harper (3-for-10 vs. Scherzer). Nola also has favorable matchups with Mookie Betts (1-for-7), new Dodger Trea Turner (7-for-38) and Max Muncy (0-for-8).

This gives me full confidence to send this NRFI for the crew. 

         

Hermo's Corner

Why the Best Bet You Can Make Is Sometimes the One You Don't

Finding balance while also enjoying the sports betting we love.

Let's talk about life.

It's wild, it's out of control, and half the time it feels like a blur. Sometimes we can lose sight of the important things—especially when sports gambling is a part of it.

There are so many games, so many opportunities, and in some seasons you can literally bet on an event every hour from noon to 10 p.m. It's easy to get addicted to having action when it's so accessible.

But you should never let your sports betting control you so much that you need action to overshadow your time with your family. Take it from me, who has been battling a rare Stage 4 adrenal cancer the past two-and-a-half years.

You won't remember your losing parlay from today, but you will remember that night out with your partner. You won't remember that you were one strikeout away from Lucas Giolito cashing your K prop bet, but you will remember that dance recital your daughter had.

Take the time to enjoy your life before you regret it. Sports should enhance our lives, not control them. If you find yourself neglecting your family over measly bets, then it's time to get your priorities straight.

And after you do bet, put the phone away. By creating a healthy balance, I guarantee you will not only find more happiness, but will also have more success because you won't find yourself craving action and forcing bets.

Be patient and play when you feel it's right. A healthy, clean gambling conscience is the key to winning.  Have an investing mindset, not a gambling one. Never chase and never lose sight of what's important. 

Stay blessed, everyone. 

As always, research pays and the stats don't lie. 

Let's have a great week. 

Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning" in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)

• 2021 NRFI record: 115-78 (59.6 percent)
• 2021 YRFI record: 42-38 (52.5 percent)
• As posted on Twitter, @TroyHermo

        

Is the NRFI Dead?

People keep asking me via DM, is the NRFI dead? The answer will always be the same.

No.

Right now? Yes.

The NRFI is not dead, it's just hibernating.

The man, the myth, the legend Mikey Locks and I were in agreement that there will often typically be a spike in NRFIs in the cooler months, and that begins to fade as the schedule approaches the All-Star break. Our fade began early based solely, I believe, on the Spider Tack ban. There was no capper in the country who could come up with a winning formula for a couple of weeks after the ban.

We will see NRFIs begin to pick up again around late August when the Fall Classic is approaching. At that point, NRFIs will be back to their 65 percent winning ways, and we will be back hammering bets week in, week out.

Until then, we will continue enjoying the YRFI days of summer with the rest of you. There's nothing better than rooting for hits with the crew and vibing to two-out homers—something that used to deflate our days. Now that sort of action has us running around the house screaming in joy.

Like everything in nature, the NRFI comes and goes with the seasons. Teams start making pushes for the playoffs and starters become more focused. Games mean more in September. To those who can still find NRFIs in this climate, I salute you. I'm picking and choosing my spots and still getting heartbroken, but I know deep down it won't last forever.

And whether it's YRFI or NRFI lines, you already know this is the spot to check out for the best analysis.

Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.

There are multiple great selections this week, including a player-induced YRFI hammer pick that has so much data backing it making it a virtual lock, and plenty of leans to fill out those parlay cards for the "Hermo mean lean team."

It's the best day of the week. Our day. YRFI night in America.

        

Hermo Lock of the Week: "Mr. First Inning" Special

2-Unit YRFI Hammer: Atlanta Braves (Max Fried) at St. Louis Cardinals (Jon Lester) [-105]

- Max Fried has struggled in the first inning this year on the road with a 4-4 NRFI/YRFI record and a 7.88 FI (first inning) ERA. Thus far in 2021, Fried has a below-average 5.82 FI ERA and is averaging 4.7 batters faced in those innings. He's coming up against the Cardinals bats who seem to have found new life in the second half of the season. Look out for Nolan Arenado, who is 3-for-10 off Fried and 5-for-15 this last week, to put some pressure on the Braves early.

- One of the more surprising trades of the deadline was Jon Lester to the Cardinals. Lester has really struggled opening games to the tune of a 7.88 FI ERA and an average of 4.75 batters faced. Not vibey for NRFI bettors, but vibey for us today. Plus, he's going against a Braves lineup that has a history with him, and that includes new addition Adam Duvall, who is 11-for-36 (.306) with two home runs. Also the one and only NRFI killer, Mr. First Inning himself, Ozzie Albies.

- Albies is a first-inning hitting machine, batting 27-for-77 (.351) with two homers this year, and he is 106-for-337 (.315) with 15 home runs lifetime. Against Lester, he is 8-for-12 (.667) with a 1.631 OPS. Earning the nickname "Mr. First Inning," he is dialed in to start games.

That's why the Braves are the No. 3 team in the country YRFI-wise, averaging a staggering 0.71 runs per game in the first inning. Albies hits, and Freddie Freeman or Duvall hit him home. We cash, and all is right with the world.

Prayers up we get an "over"-leaning umpire with a wide zone to make this even juicier. Follow me on Twitter for updates on that end. I will have a full Hermo Map for this game and others, all posted throughout the day.

        

Other Leans on the Card

YRFI: Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler) at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin) [-105]

- Corbin has an 8.55 FI ERA and averages five batters faced in those innings, making him a candidate for YRFI Meatballer of the Year.

- The meat of the Phillies lineup has hit Corbin well: Alec Bohm is 4-for-10, Rhys Hoskins is 8-for-23 (although he's day-to-day) and Bryce Harper is 8-for-28.

- Juan Soto is 9-for-30 with two home runs off Wheeler.

          

NRFI: Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler) [-110]

- This is a stat-friendly NRFI spot, as Walker "NRFI" Buehler has a very impressive 2.14 FI ERA and averages only 3.66 batters faced in those innings. It makes him one of the front-runners to be on my first-team All-NRFI squad at the end of the season.

The only Astros player to have homered off Buehler is Carlos Correa, who is only hitting .143 lifetime at Dodger Stadium. Buehler is up against McCullers Jr., who over the course of his career has been an above-average NRFI pitcher with a career 3.64 FI ERA in 108 starts.

         

Hermo's Corner

Why Finding Trends with Props Is Key to Overall Success

Props are the most volatile bets in sports.

Innings, hits, home runs and the probability of hitting these bets make them challenging but also make them fun for stat-based sports investors like myself. I love finding a good trend and riding it till the rails fall off.

Example: For every day game the Oakland Athletics play this year (before 3 p.m. PT), I load up on Matt Olson player props. That's because my dad showed me the day-game splits. Look who is No. 1.

Olson is 58-for-152 (.382) with 17 homers this year during day games compared to 44-for-212 (.208) with eight home runs at night. These small things can make big differences in the outcomes of your props. I look for every possible angle, and receiving confirmation they are hitting over .300 in all of them makes it a prop lock.

My prop routine is to check splits during the week, check history versus a pitcher, history at the ballpark (if the home team, just recent stats of the current season), and lastly, I will look at day- and night-game splits. Taking the time to do these things has already paid huge dividends on my prop plays and has helped me be more selective.

Remember, if there is a play in doubt, just leave it out. You will be beating yourself up if you play every prop that has solid data. If you find out someone is .175 at the ballpark and that scares you, just stay away. There's nothing better than watching that batter go 0-for-4 and knowing you had the information and the guts to stay away. Some of the best bets are the ones you don't make.

As always, research pays and the stats don't lie. I will see you all next week.

         

Look out on my Twitter page, @TroyHermo, for complete Hermo Stat maps of games and videos on player props and much more. Videos will also be posted in the B/R Betting community section of the Bleacher Report App.

Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI—yes run first inning.)

• 2021 NRFI record: 114-76 (60.0 percent)
• 2021 YRFI record: 38-34 (52.8 percent)
• As posted on Twitter @TroyHermo.

The YRFI days of summer continue. I said you would have to be super selective to hit NRFIs but never knew how selective. From hitting 67 percent of my NRFIs a month ago to sitting at 60 percent—it's tough sledding for all cappers. Only the strong survive these runs.

You have to remember historically the YRFI is the favorite bet. The first inning has the most runs scored out of any inning.

That means the NRFI is a dog.

A dog that the books were juicing heavily the first few months of the season. With a couple of amazing matchups, I feel we can have a profitable Tuesday and finally get some momentum. Finding value in even the toughest of cards takes mapping each game and looking at the pitching and hitting trends and ballpark intangibles. I found a couple of hammers and plenty of leans for your MLB betting card.

   

The Hermo YRFI Hammer of the Week

Toronto Blue Jays (Robbie Ray) at Boston Red Sox (Garrett Richards) [-160]

The Scoop

The Red Sox rank first in first-inning runs, scoring 0.8 runs per game.

Robbie Ray struggles against the Sox. He has a 6.32 ERA in four games against Boston and a 5.91 ERA in three games at Fenway Park.

Multiple Red Sox hitters have great stats against Ray: Rafael Devers has homered in his lone at-bat, Xander Bogaerts is 3-for-8 with a homer, and Alex Verdugo is 3-for-8.

Garrett Richards has an 11.57 first-inning ERA at Fenway this year, making him a YRFI lock any time he's at home. Richards has also averaged five batters faced in the first inning this year, which is one of the highest among starters in the majors.

Richards has a 5.37 ERA in 12 games against the Blue Jays. The meat of the Blue Jays lineup sees him well, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is 6-for-9 with a home run, and Teoscar Hernandez, who is 6-for-11 with a home run. Look for these two to help us cash that ticket before the Sox even get an at-bat.

   

The Hermo NRFI Hammer of the Week

Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) at Seattle Mariners (Chris Flexen) [-115]

The Scoop

Lance McCullers Jr. has a solid track record in Seattle with a 2.50 ERA in seven starts at T-Mobile Park. McCullers also has a 2.81 first-inning ERA and a 3.86 first-inning ERA on the road. The Mariners are the 26th-best team in first-inning runs, averaging only 0.4 per game. This is a good spot for McCullers to put up a zero for NRFI nation.

Flexen has been a huge NRFI surprise this year at home. He has a 1.64 ERA and 10-1 NRFI record compared to a 9.00 ERA and 4-3 NRFI record on the road. In fact, Flexen is dominant, posting an overall ERA of 1.89 in 11 starts at home. Facing the Astros earlier in the year, Flexen held them to one run in six innings, and the NRFI cashed.

   

Leans

YRFI: Washington Nationals (Erick Fedde) at Philadelphia Phillies (Matt Moore) [-140]

Bryce Harper is 6-for-15 with four homers versus Erick Fedde, Alcides Escobar (5-for-10, HR) and Ryan Zimmerman (4-for-9, 2 HR) see Matt Moore well, and Moore's last outing featured six earned runs in six innings.

YRFI: Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease) at Kansas City Royals (Brad Keller) [-130]

Brad Keller has had problems early in games this year (9.00 first-inning ERA), and in three starts against the Sox he has a 1-2 NRFI record and 5.65 ERA. Dylan Cease always has problems early on the road with a 9.00 first-inning ERA compared to 0.90 in Chicago.

   

Hermo's Corner

The Only Person You Have to Blame Is Yourself

Every gambler loves having a scapegoat. It's why so many search for plays from other people rather than play their own. When they lose, they have a scapegoat to blame and shame until they are ready to bet again.

When the tout is winning, they are a god, and when they lose, they are the villain who doesn't know what they're doing. It shouldn't be like that. Touts and people who give picks should always be suggestions. If you have a feel for a game and another tout in the circle of cappers you follow like it, use that as validation for your own picks.

Nobody can predict the weather or when a team is going to show up ready to play. Nobody can offer a 100 percent lock on anything. We are all going off stats and information. Using history to best help pick the future.

Even when I spend hours on one game and look at all the different angles, a batter who is 1-for-22 lifetime versus a pitcher can hit two home runs to crush a bet. Then there are other times when what's on the field reflects the research, and you sweep the board.

Ride the good times with the bad. Just be comfortable with losing your bets and not blaming the people who are doing their best to do the impossible: predict the future. At least when I lose, you see all the work that went into it and it just wasn't our day. Would rather go down swinging then never swing at all. If the stats say it's right, and when you read the Hermo maps what I'm saying speaks to you—play it.

If you're on the fence, remember my favorite phrase that will get you out of endless gambling trouble: "If the pick is in doubt, leave it out."

The only person you have to blame for a loss is yourself. You first. Cappers second.

I believe in you. The real question is do you believe in yourself? Remember sports betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Only 1 percent do it for a living, and the rest are drowning like the rest of us. But if we make small, smart steps every day and follow the information, there's no reason we can't have a blast while making some side income as well.

Let's have a great week, NRFI nation. As always, research pays, and the stats don't lie.

   

All stats courtesy of TeamRankings and Daily Baseball Data.

The Milwaukee Bucks hadn't won an NBA title since 1971, and they hadn't even reached the NBA Finals since 1974. However, they ended their championship drought Tuesday night. Could it be the start of a dynasty?

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns have still never won an NBA title. Before this year, their only previous NBA Finals appearances came in 1993 and 1976. Can they get back to this point and try to win their first championship in 2022?

The Bucks and Suns should remain strong teams heading into the 2021-22 season, so perhaps one (or both) could get back to the NBA Finals for a second year in a row. But there's a lot of work for them to do before that can happen, and other teams around the NBA are sure to improve this offseason.

Here's a look at the early odds for the top contenders to win the NBA title next year, including how likely it is that either Milwaukee will repeat or that Phoenix will finally break through.

      

Top Odds to Win NBA Title in 2022

Brooklyn Nets: +200 (bet $100 to win $200)

Los Angeles Lakers: +600

Milwaukee Bucks: +850

Phoenix Suns: +1200

Los Angeles Clippers: +1300

Golden State Warriors: +1300

Utah Jazz: +1300

Philadelphia 76ers: +1600

Denver Nuggets: +2400

Dallas Mavericks: +3000

Complete list available at FanDuel Sportsbook

If the Bucks are going to make it back to the NBA Finals next year, they're likely going to need to again get past the Nets. This year, Milwaukee won a seven-game series against Brooklyn in the second round of the playoffs, overcoming a 3-2 deficit with back-to-back wins in Games 6 and 7.

The Nets will bring back their Big Three of James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. And as long as that trio is healthy, Brooklyn is going to be among the favorites to win the NBA title.

Still, the Bucks have already proved they're capable of beating the Nets in a postseason series. Milwaukee may not have as many big names, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has developed into a superstar, while others such as Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez are valuable supporting players.

And as Antetokounmpo alluded to after the Bucks' title-clinching Game 6 win over the Suns, the formation of superteams around the league has only motivated Milwaukee to succeed in the fashion that it has.

"I could've gone to a superteam ... but this is the hard way to do it, and I did it," Antetokounmpo said, per ESPN's Tim Bontemps.

So why not do it again? Antetokounmpo is a two-time NBA MVP and now an NBA Finals MVP, and the scary thing for other teams is that the 26-year-old may still be getting better. One of his only weaknesses in recent years has been his free-throw shooting, yet he went 17-of-19 at the line while dropping 50 points in Game 6 of the Finals.

There doesn't seem to be too many potential title contenders in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers may be one of the only teams that could challenge the Nets and Bucks. The path could be there for Milwaukee to have an opportunity to try to repeat as champions.

Things will likely be more difficult for the Suns in the Western Conference. They may not be as strong, either, if veteran point guard Chris Paul decides not to return. The 36-year-old has a $44.2 million player option for the 2021-22 season, but he could decide to hit free agency after his first season in Phoenix.

There are quite a few teams that will be looking to knock off the Suns in the West. That includes the Lakers, who fell to the Suns in the first round of the playoffs. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be back, so Los Angeles will be capable of a bounce-back showing.

The Jazz were the No. 1 seed in the West this year and should still be a strong team. The Nuggets and Clippers will be seeking revenge against the Suns and are poised for deep playoff runs. And the Warriors could get back to the postseason, especially if Klay Thompson stays healthy and returns playing at a high level.

It's possible we get a Bucks-Suns rematch in the 2022 NBA Finals. Both teams should be in no danger of missing the playoffs, and each now has the postseason experience to know what it takes to make it to the end.

However, it's much more likely that we see the Bucks back next year than the Suns. And there's a strong chance that Antetokounmpo and his teammates could be celebrating again in 2022.       

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