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NRFI Night in America: Hammer Locks and Some Mean Leans

Jun 29, 2021
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff watches a throw to a Colorado Rockies batter during the first inning of a baseball game Thursday, June 17, 2021, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff watches a throw to a Colorado Rockies batter during the first inning of a baseball game Thursday, June 17, 2021, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America, and we are on fire.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI—yes-run first inning.)

  • 2021 NRFI record: 109-66 (62.3 percent)
  • 2021 YRFI record: 24-24 (50.0 percent)

As posted on Twitter @TroyHermo

What a bad few weeks it has been for NRFI Nation. Went 1-5 on this column's picks last week. It's been nearly impossible to cap the games now that sticky stuff has been banned. Some pitchers have tailed off, and the confidence of a nation betting on six outs has never been lower (at least not this season).

But...even in the darkest of times, I still believe we can find value on any card. The numbers and my new stat sheet, "The Map" (which can be found at my Twitter) still can find winners even in this market.

Let's dive in with three NRFIs and two YRFIs. It's NRFI Night in America. America's game. America's bet. Six outs, no runs, all glory. The quickest way to a baseball betting payday.

Hermo tip when betting NRFIs: If the first-inning draw has better juice, always take it. You are a smart sports investor, and you don't fall for traps. First-inning draw is essentially a NRFI, and you get more coverage in case it ends 1-1. Better juice, too? It's a no-brainer. Always check. Make the books do their jobs. Take advantage of mistakes.

You all know what to do and where to go by now. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.

   

NRFI Night in America: The Hermo Hammer Plays

2-Unit NRFI Play: Chicago Cubs (Zach Davies) at Milwaukee Brewers (Brandon Woodruff) -121

The Hermo map:

Zach DaviesPitcher StatsBrandon Woodruff
  
5-4 (4.31)2021 Record (ERA)6-3 (1.89)
4.14 (139)Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS)3.34 (62)
4.46Carrer Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.05
2.25 (12)2020 1st-Inning ERA (GS)0.69 (13)
4.582020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st3.69
7-52020 NRFI Record12-1
3.38 (16)2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS)4.80 (15)
4.122021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.06
13-32021 NRFI Record11-4
1.13 (8)/5.63 (8)2021 Home/Away 1st-Inning ERA (GS)2.57 (7)/6.75 (8)
4.15 (8)/4.50 (8)2021 Home/Away ERA (GS)2.32 (7)/1.55 (8)
N/AERA vs. Opponent3.06
N/ANRFI Record vs. Opponent8-1
4.65Ballpark ERA3.48

      

The Scoop

Brandon Woodruff's 4.80 first-inning ERA doesn't tell the whole story. That is inflated by a Coors Field stinker in which he gave up five runs. Happens to the best pitchers. He is 11-4 on the year, including 3-0 versus the Cubs.

Woodruff's numbers against the top five Cubs batters make me like this one even more:

  • Joc Pederson: 3-for-8 (.375), 2 HR
  • Kris Bryant: 2-for-20 (.100), 0 HR
  • Anthony Rizzo: 3-for-20 (.150), 0 HR
  • Javier Baez: 1-for-16 (.063), 0 HR
  • Willson Contreras: 1-for-10 (.100), 0 HR
  • Joc is the only one we have to worry about, and he was 2-for-18 (.111) over the past seven days going into Monday's game.

  • Zach Davies is set to face his old team the Brewers for the first time. See it as a revenge game.
  • He's been pitching great and is coming off the Cubs' combined no-hitter.
  • He's shut out his side of the first inning 10 times in a row.
  • He's in form, and if we can get a good "under umpire" matchup, I will like this play even more.

      

1-Unit NRFI Play: Tampa Bay (Rich Hill) at Washington Nationals (Joe Ross)

The map:

Rich HillPitcher StatsJoe Ross
  
6-2 (3.52)2021 Record (ERA)4-7 (4.12)
3.94 (177)Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS)4.18 (71)
4.15Career Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.24
2.25 (8)2020 1st-Inning ERA (GS)#N/A
4.132020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st#N/A
6-22020 NRFI RecordN/A
1.20 (15)2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS)5.14 (14)
3.532021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.64
13-22021 NRFI Record11-3
1.13 (8)/1.29 (7)2021 Home/Away 1st-Inning ERA (GS)3.60 (5)/6.00 (9)
3.50 (8)/3.55 (7)2021 Home/Away ERA (GS)5.74 (5)/3.21 (9)
4.08ERA vs. OpponentN/A
3-2NRFI Record vs. OpponentN/A
2.53Ballpark ERA3.60
2-0Ballpark NRFI Record24-11
  • Joe Ross is a "Ross Boss" at home with a 24-11 NRFI record at Nats Park.
  • Top five in Washington lineup projected versus Rich Hill are very favorable for NRFI:
    • Kyle Schwarber: 1-for-9 (.111), 0 HR
    • Trea Turner: 0-for-2 (.000), 0 HR
    • Juan Soto: N/A
    • Josh Bell: 2-for-7 (.286), 0 HR
    • Josh Harrison: 2-for-6 (.333), 1 HR

   

The Rest of the Card

Here are the maps, with the bold parts being the reasoning:

KC-BOS YRFI -141

Brad KellerPitcher StatsNick Pivetta
  
6-8 (6.39)2021 Record (ERA)6-3 (4.00)
4.81 (73)Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS)5.93 (88)
4.51Career Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.52
3.00 (9)2020 1st-Inning ERA (GS)9.00 (2)
4.332020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st6.00
10.13 (16)2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS)6.00 (15)
5.562021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st5.00
12.38 (8)/7.88 (8)2021 Home/Away 1st-Inning ERA (GS)6.75 (8)/5.14 (7)
7.97 (8)/5.05 (8)2021 Home/Away ERA (GS)4.57 (8)/3.40 (7)
  • Boston is the best first-inning team in scoring (0.8 runs per game).
  • Going up against Brad Keller, who has been awful in the first inning.
  • He averages 5.6 batters faced. Guy is a walking YRFI.

     

NYM-ATL NRFI +110

Tylor MegillPitcher StatsCharlie Morton
  
0-0 (4.15)2021 Record (ERA)7-3 (3.68)
0.00 (1)Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS)3.57 (273)
4.00Career Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.30
#N/A2020 1st-Inning ERA4.00 (9)
#N/A2020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.56
0.00 (1)2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS)1.23 (15)
4.002021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.20
1-0/N/A2021 NRFI Record7-2/4-2
4.15 (1)/N/A2021 Home/Away ERA (GS)3.88 (9)/3.41 (6)
  • Charlie Morton is an NRFI beast at home.
  • Tylor Megill is a young gun in the Mets organization who put up decent numbers in Triple-A and looked good in his first start.
  • Mets are one of the worst first-inning hitting teams (0.4 runs per game, 25th).

      

SD-CIN YRFI -155

Blake SnellPitcher StatsTony Santillan
  
3-3 (5.29)2021 Record (ERA)1-1 (3.29)
3.69 (123)Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS)9.00 (3)
4.19Career Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.67
0.00 (11)2020 1st-Inning ERA (GS)N/A
4.092020 Avg Batters Faced in 1stN/A
6.14 (15)2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS)9.00 (3)
4.202021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st4.66
0.00 (7)/11.74 (8)2021 Home/Away 1st-Inning ERA (GS)9.00 (2)/9.00 (1)
1.43 (7)/10.36 (8)2021 Home/Away ERA (GS)1.69 (2)/9.00 (1)
  • Blake Snell has been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
  • At home, Dr. Jekyll: 0.00 ERA in seven starts.
  • On the road, Mr. Hyde: 11.74 first-inning ERA.
  • Going up against the Big Red YRFI Machine. Jesse Winker, Nick Cash-tellanos and Joey Votto.

   

Hermo's Corner of Betting Advice

How to have sports action without a negative family and friends reaction. We've all been there. At a cookout, and someone has shamed you for having action on a game. They aren't wrong; there are lots of evils that come with gambling. But done correctly, gambling enhances and takes the sports we love to new heights.

Big moments become even more memorable, and with the right information, we can even make it profitable. It's that last part that's always the issue. Most likely this person had a bad experience or lost money gambling, so you have to show them it's not gambling and that it's more like investing.

Many adults have invested in stocks and understand the research that goes into that. So, talk their language. Give capper percentages, unit-size breakdowns, profits and losses for the week. Show the stats that go behind the picks.

If you have been following the column, two weeks ago we went over having three cappers in your pocket to give you consistently good information. That information is what makes the difference between "degenerate dart Dave" and "informative sports investor David." Don't ever be a DDD.

Best case is to get these doubters in on the action. Slipping into conversation NRFI stats or any stats followed by a prop on an app they can download and play—I've seen it work. Once they get the rush and feel for what we do, they understand.

Just don't go overboard, and always follow the information. If you ever feel guilty playing something, best to reevaluate your units and choices. If I can make my anti-gambling in-laws believe in the map and NRFI Nation, I can make anyone a believer.

America's game. America's bet. Six outs to glory. Research pays, and the stats don't lie. Let's get some W's.

Mattress Mack Makes $2M Astros World Series Bet; Would Be Record $22M Payout

Jun 23, 2021
HOUSTON, TX - FEBRUARY 17: Houston business owner Jim Mattress Mack McIngvale poses for a portrait at his store Gallery Furniture in Houston, Texas on February 17, 2021. Gallery Furniture opened up its doors to help people with food and shelter during the power outages. (Photo by Mark Felix for The Washington Post via Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX - FEBRUARY 17: Houston business owner Jim Mattress Mack McIngvale poses for a portrait at his store Gallery Furniture in Houston, Texas on February 17, 2021. Gallery Furniture opened up its doors to help people with food and shelter during the power outages. (Photo by Mark Felix for The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Houston retail magnate Mattress Mack is back with another major bet that would earn him the highest reported payout in U.S. sports betting history if it hits.

Jim McIngvale dropped $2 million on the Houston Astros to win the World Series (+1000) at William Hill Sportsbook. If the Astros are celebrating at the end of October, Mack will earn $22 million.

After winning $2.75 million on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Super Bowl victory, Mack has run into a bit of a cold streak at the sportsbooks. His $1 million bet on the University of Houston to win the Final Four was a dud. His $2.4 million wager on Essential Quality to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby also flopped.

Now he's going back to his hometown ballclub to try to get back in the win column.

Aaron Rodgers Odds: Broncos, Raiders Still Favored For Packers QB amid Trade Rumors

May 25, 2021
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 24: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers walks across the field in the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field on January 24, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN - JANUARY 24: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers walks across the field in the second quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field on January 24, 2021 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

The Denver Broncos are the oddsmakers' clear favorite to land Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers if he's traded before the start of the 2021 NFL season.

DraftKings Sportsbook provided updated betting lines Tuesday for Rodgers' future, with a return to the Packers still listed as the most likely outcome, followed by a trade to the Broncos or Las Vegas Raiders:

Where Rodgers will open the new campaign has become a hot-button topic since ESPN's Adam Schefter reported in late April the reigning NFL MVP had "told some within the organization that he does not want to return to the team."

The 37-year-old Cal product hasn't publicly requested a trade, but he confirmed during an interview with longtime SportsCenter anchor Kenny Mayne, who hosted his last edition of the show Monday, there's a disagreement with the organization about "philosophy:"

"With my situation, look it's never been about the draft pick, picking Jordan [Love]. I love Jordan; he's a great kid. [We've had] a lot of fun to work together. Love the coaching staff, love my teammates, love the fan base in Green Bay. An incredible 16 years. It's just kind of about a philosophy and maybe forgetting that it is about the people that make the thing go. It's about character, it's about culture, it's about doing things the right way."

Green Bay selected Love in the first round of the 2020 draft without informing Rodgers about the intention to add his potential heir apparent.

The nine-time Pro Bowl selection declined to say during his interview with Mayne how he wanted to resolve the lingering issues with the franchise:

"I think sometimes people forget what really makes an organization. History is important, legacy of so many people who've come before you. But the people, that's the most important thing. People make an organization, people make a business and sometimes that gets forgotten. Culture is built brick by brick, the foundation of it by the people, not by the organization, not by the building, not by the corporation. It's built by the people.

"I've been fortunate enough to play with a number of amazing, amazing people and got to work for some amazing people as well. It's those people that build the foundation of those entities. I think sometimes we forget that."

Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson reported in early May that Rodgers "remains adamant that he won't return to the team under the current stewardship of general manager Brian Gutekunst," but the leader of the Packers' front office has been steadfast in his own stance.

"We're not going to trade Aaron Rodgers," Gutekunst said April 29 after the team drafted cornerback Eric Stokes in the first round of the draft.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have been unable to find a long-term answer at quarterback. Rodgers could step in and transform the team into a championship contender in much the same way Peyton Manning did during the final years of his career after his long tenure with the Indianapolis Colts.

Mark Schlereth, a former Denver offensive lineman and current 104.3 The Fan radio host, posted on the first day of the draft that a Rodgers-to-Broncos trade was “close to a done deal,” but nothing has materialized.

The team did pass on the available quarterbacks with the ninth overall pick in the draft, instead opting for Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II, so the need for a QB is still there. As it stands, Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, who was acquired the day before the draft began, would compete for the starting job.

All of the other possible landing spots, including the Raiders, are long shots based on the current odds.

Champions League Results 2021: Top Scorers, Odds After Semifinal Leg-2 Scores

May 5, 2021
LONDON, ENGLAND - MAY 05: Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, Antonio Ruediger and Kurt Zouma of Chelsea celebrate victory during the UEFA Champions League Semi Final Second Leg match between Chelsea and Real Madrid at Stamford Bridge on May 05, 2021 in London, England. Sporting stadiums around Europe remain under strict restrictions due to the Coronavirus Pandemic as Government social distancing laws prohibit fans inside venues resulting in games being played behind closed doors. (Photo by Chris Lee - Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images )
LONDON, ENGLAND - MAY 05: Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, Antonio Ruediger and Kurt Zouma of Chelsea celebrate victory during the UEFA Champions League Semi Final Second Leg match between Chelsea and Real Madrid at Stamford Bridge on May 05, 2021 in London, England. Sporting stadiums around Europe remain under strict restrictions due to the Coronavirus Pandemic as Government social distancing laws prohibit fans inside venues resulting in games being played behind closed doors. (Photo by Chris Lee - Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images )

The 2021 Champions League final will be a battle of Premier League rivals.

Mason Mount and Timo Werner both scored to give Chelsea a 2-0 victory over Real Madrid on Wednesday, giving them a 3-1 advantage on the aggregate to advance in their semifinal clash. Chelsea will move on to play Manchester City, which cliched a 4-1 aggregate win over Paris Saint-Germain with a 2-0 triumph Wednesday.

Manchester City will enter the May 29 final in Istanbul as a -195 favorite (bet $195 to win $100) over Chelsea (+155), per DraftKings. Betting Manchester City to win outright in regulation seems like a much stronger option at -106, with the underdog Chelsea coming in at +300 to avoid extra time and win.

Champions League Top Scorers

  • 10: Erling Haaland (Borussia Dortmund)
  • 8: Kylian Mbappe (Paris Saint-Germain)
  • 6: Neymar (Paris Saint-Germain), Alvaro Morata (Juventus), Mohamed Salah (Liverpool), Olivier Giroud (Chelsea), Youssef En-Nesyri (Sevilla), Marcus Rashford (Manchester United), Karim Benzema (Real Madrid)
  • 5: Alassane Plea (Borussia Monchengladbach), Ciro Immobile (Lazio), Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich), Sergio Oliveira (Porto)

City has dominated the Premier League this season, carrying a 13-point advantage in the table heading into the weekend and a 19-point edge ahead of Chelsea.

That said, Chelsea will come into the final with some level of momentum after scoring a 1-0 victory over Manchester City in their last match April 17 in the FA Cup semifinals. The loss cost City a chance at winning a quadruple, something it will hope to avenge when the two sides make the trip to Turkey.

Chelsea also stands in the way of Manchester City locking up the Premier League. The two clubs are set to play Saturday at the Etihad Stadium in a preview of the UCL final. 

“Definitely for all of us and for the club and I am incredibly proud," manager Pep Guardiola told reporters. "We are in the final of the Champions League. Those are nice words [to say]. Now we will start to enjoy it. We need one step to win the Premier League and we have two or three weeks to prepare for the final." 

Of course, Manchester City has already made history in making it to the final for the first time in club history. The club has had its fair share of UCL disappointments in recent seasons, failing to advance in many cases despite having superior talent.

This is seemingly the year everything has come together for City, but it'll have a familiar foe staring them in the face in a few weeks. 

Chelsea played the spoiler for Bayern Munich in 2012, and history could repeat itself if the Blues can keep the scoring to a minimum. 

For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

WWE's The Miz Predicts Browns Will Go to Super Bowl During NFL Draft Live Stream

Apr 30, 2021
WWE Superstars Mike
WWE Superstars Mike

WWE Superstar and Cleveland area native The Miz is throwing his chips to the middle of the table: The Browns are headed to the Super Bowl.

The two-time WWE Grand Slam champion made an appearance on the NFL's draft-a-thon Friday and said he's ready for Cleveland to reach the "promised land."

"We don't even need anybody in the draft. We fixed everything in free agency. We are ready to go," he said during the broadcast.

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Browns at 16-1 to win Super Bowl LVI, tied with the Green Bay Packers for the seventh-best odds.

Cleveland added safety John Johnson III and cornerback Troy Hill on multiyear deals and defensive ends Takkarist McKinley and Jadeveon Clowney, defensive tackle Malik Jackson and linebacker Anthony Walker on one-year deals.

The Browns also added Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II with their first-round pick Thursday night. With defense being the major area of concern for the Browns, The Miz was certainly correct in pointing out that they addressed their top needs.

We'll have to see if his belief in his team is on the money.

   

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

Trevor Lawrence, Micah Parsons Named Early 2021 NFL ROY Betting Favorites

Apr 30, 2021
Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons holds a team jersey after the was chosen by the Dallas Cowboys with the 12th pick in the NFL football draft Thursday, April 29, 2021, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons holds a team jersey after the was chosen by the Dallas Cowboys with the 12th pick in the NFL football draft Thursday, April 29, 2021, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons are the early favorites for the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards after the first round of the 2021 NFL draft Thursday night.

DraftKings Sportsbook provided a look at the top contenders based on the initial betting odds:

Lawrence was the Jags' choice with the first overall pick. He's been a prized prospect since high school—247Sports rated him as the sixth-best college football recruit in its history—and only further enhanced his status as a future franchise quarterback during his time at Clemson.

The 21-year-old Tennessee native completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 10,098 yards with 90 touchdowns and just 17 interceptions across 40 appearances in three years with the Tigers. He added 943 rushing yards and 18 scores on the ground.

Now he takes over a Jacksonville offense that has enough talent for him to enjoy a strong rookie season.

Running back James Robinson is coming off a strong debut campaign in which he scored 10 touchdowns in 14 games, and the Jaguars used their other first-round pick on Lawrence's Clemson teammate Travis Etienne, who should bring a more dynamic element to the backfield.

The Jags also feature a potent receiver trio in Marvin Jones Jr., DJ Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys were frequently linked to one of the draft class' top cornerbacks, Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain II, leading up to the draft. They decided to trade down two spots when both of those DBs were off the board and still managed to nab Parsons, a well-rounded, instant-impact linebacker, at No. 12.

Parsons is the marquee arrival to a defense that ranked 28th in points allowed per game (29.6) last season and should play a large enough role to put up big numbers right away.

Neither Lawrence's nor Parsons' statuses as the initial favorites come as a surprise, but the battle for Rookie of the Year should really come into focus when training camp gets underway and it becomes more clear which first-year players are primed to take on a lot of snaps.

           

For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

Justin Fields Odds: Patriots, Panthers Favorites for QB After Bridgewater Trade

Apr 28, 2021
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields throws during an NFL Pro Day at Ohio State University Tuesday, March 30, 2021 in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Paul Vernon)
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields throws during an NFL Pro Day at Ohio State University Tuesday, March 30, 2021 in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Paul Vernon)

After trading Teddy Bridgewater to the Denver Broncos, the Carolina Panthers are now one of the betting favorites to select Justin Fields in the 2021 NFL draft. 

Per DraftKings.com, the Panthers and New England Patriots are tied at +300 odds (bet $100 to win $300) to take Fields in the first round on Thursday. 

The Panthers look to be in a good spot for one of the top quarterbacks in this year's class. It's widely assumed that the top three picks will be signal-callers, but there's no obvious candidate from No. 4 until their top selection at No. 8 overall that could be targeting a player at the position. 

The Atlanta Falcons, slotted fourth, could try to find Matt Ryan's replacement, but by recently restructuring his contract, they made it more difficult to move on from him after this season. His deal includes a $40.525 million dead cap number in 2022, per Spotrac.

The Cincinnati Bengals (No. 5) and Miami Dolphins (No. 6) have second-year quarterbacks they are still developing.

The Detroit Lions, picking seventh, could look for a long-term answer at the position, but ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano reported that people around the league expect them to take a wide receiver for Jared Goff. 

Of course, the Panthers have already made a move for a quarterback if they want to address another position. They sent second- and fourth-round picks in 2022 and a 2021 sixth-rounder to the New York Jets for Sam Darnold. 

Per Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports, Carolina intends to exercise Darnold's fifth-year option for the 2022 season.

Head coach Matt Rhule and general manager Scott Fitterer, who is entering his first season with the club, are taking over a Panthers roster still in the early stages of a rebuild. Finding a high-ceiling quarterback, like Fields, could expedite their path back to playoff contention in the NFC South. 

Fields threw for 2,100 yards and 22 touchdowns with a 70.2 completion percentage in eight games for the Buckeyes in 2020.

Best NBA Same-Game Parlay, Betting Props for 76ers vs. Bucks, Lakers vs. Mavs

Apr 22, 2021
Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo reacts to his shot in front of Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid during the first half of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Feb. 22, 2020, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo reacts to his shot in front of Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid during the first half of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Feb. 22, 2020, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

Four playoff contenders are preparing to tip off Thursday night, with both contests airing nationally on NBA on TNT. That can only mean it's time to fire up FanDuel and get some single-game parlay tickets lined up and ready to win.

The action gets started with the Philadelphia 76ers visiting the Milwaukee Bucks and then the Dallas Mavericks hosting the Los Angeles Lakers. 

Neither of these games are as straightforward as they appear on paper, however. The Sixers are coming off a three-point loss at home to the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, while the Lakers are still nursing a number of injuries to their star players. That just means it's time to rifle through the key ring and make sure all the locks are in order. 

Here's how we're getting ready to cash in.

     

Drinks on Them

Send a photo of your winning ticket to @BR_Betting on Twitter or Instagram for an opportunity to have your bet featured here.

     

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET on TNT

Spread: Bucks -8 (-112)

Moneyline: Sixers +270 (bet $100 to win $270)

Over/Under: 225 (-110)

The trick with the early game is the status of back-to-back MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak exited Monday's overtime loss against Phoenix with a left toe cramp, and at this point in the season, there's no question Milwaukee won't be taking any chances with him. As enticing as his props are on Thursday, it's best to stay away. 

    

Build Around This: Khris Middleton 3+ Made Threes (+178)

Middleton's deep ball has been a bit spotty of late, but his opportunities to sink his three-pointers remain at a high level. Over the last five contests, Middleton has attempted fewer than six three-pointers just once. His makes have hovered around 2-3 per game over that stretch, so if you feel more comfortable taking him at two-plus made threes (-182) go for it, but we're going to avoid the juice. 

     

Squad Ride Single-Game Parlays

  • Khris Middleton 3+ Made Threes, Khris Middleton 4+ Rebounds, Jrue Holiday 6+ Assists (+624, bet $100 to win $624)
  • Khris Middleton 3+ Made Threes, Jrue Holiday 6+ Assists, Jrue Holiday Under 18.5 Points, Sixers +8 (+2075)

      

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks 

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET on TNT

Spread: Mavericks -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Lakers +138 

Over/Under: 216 (-110)

Anthony Davis hasn't played since February 14. That streak is likely to reach an end Thursday. The all-world forward said he plans to retake the court against the Mavs after working through both calf and Achilles injuries over the last two months. Expect him to be on a tight minutes restriction and more of a fun sideshow as far as betting goes. He's far too unpredictable at this point to wager significantly on. 

     

Build Around This: Mavericks -3.5 (-110)

Andre Drummond said it best on April 13: You can't expect the Lakers to have much chemistry while a number of players remain injured. His quote was more geared toward finding a rhythm on offense, but we're going to take it at face value here. While Los Angeles continues to tinker with its rotation and make sure its top players are healthy for another postseason run, it's just too hard to trust the defending champions. Especially if Davis is going to be playing sporadically and testing out his leg. 

     

Squad Ride Single-Game Parlays

  • Mavericks -3.5, Over 216, Mavericks Double Result (+357)
  • Mavericks -3.5, Over 216, Kristaps Porzingis First Basket, Mavericks Double Result (+3478)

      

Let's Get Rich

While the TNT matchups provide the most fun on Thursday, there are too many great games across the league to just focus on the main course. We're going after the big lines and preparing to go yacht shopping once they hit.

  • First Basket Joel Embiid (+500)
  • First Basket Brandon Ingram (+550)
  • First Basket Jayson Tatum (+600)
  • First Basket Devonte' Graham (+750)
  • First Basket Anthony Davis (+500)

Payout: $10 to win $139,220 (+1392200)

    

Thursday's 3x2

Get your night started off right with the best bet in basketball. FanDuel is offering boosted odds for 3x2s on both nationally televised games. It's as simple a bet as you can find on the night. If both teams combine to hit two three-pointers in the first three minutes of the first quarter, you win. Odds are listed at +110 with a max bet of $50 for Sixers-Bucks and Lakers-Mavs each. Happy trailing out there. 

     

Must be 21+ and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, Colorado or Tennessee. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. See sportsbook.fanduel.com for details. 

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