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Rose Bowl 2021: Final Odds and Prediction for Notre Dame vs. Alabama

Jan 1, 2021
A sign promoting the Rose Bowl Game is seen outside the Rose Bowl Stadium Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Pasadena, Calif. No. 13 Southern California became the sixth Pac-12 team to opt out of a bowl game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020 citing a recommendation from team doctors and discussions with players. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
A sign promoting the Rose Bowl Game is seen outside the Rose Bowl Stadium Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Pasadena, Calif. No. 13 Southern California became the sixth Pac-12 team to opt out of a bowl game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020 citing a recommendation from team doctors and discussions with players. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)

In yet another twist in an already strange college football season, this year's Rose Bowl won't be played in sunny Pasadena and fragranced by the smell of fresh roses from the nearby parade.

Rather, the game serving as the College Football Playoff semifinal between Notre Dame and Alabama will be played in Arlington, Texas, at the AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. 

"Just this once," the Pasadena City Council will allow the Texas semifinal game to call itself the "Rose Bowl Game" as the Tournament of Roses relocates the game to Texas, a week after the council met in closed session to debate the issue. 

It's just the second time in history the Rose Bowl won't be played in California, the first coming on New Year's Day 1942, when the game was played at Duke.

The Fighting Irish and Crimson Tide, however, aren't as concerned about where they're playing as who they're playing. Let's break down how you can tune in to the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day, as well as what you should watch for when you do. 

     

Rose Bowl 2021

Date: January 1, 2021

Time: 4 p.m. ET

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX 

Matchup: CFP semifinal between Notre Dame and Alabama

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN

Odds: Alabama (-20.5); Over/Under 66.5

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

     

Alabama spent the full five weeks after the College Football Playoff poll released its rankings in the top spot. 

The rest of the order of the top four spots shifted slightly during that time—Notre Dame, for instance, found itself ranked No. 2 in the first four weeks before finishing at No. 4—but the four teams themselves never changed: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame. 

Notre Dame, of course, fell to the bottom of the Top Four after losing to Clemson 34-10, causing the Tigers to leapfrog the Fighting Irish in the final rankings. Notre Dame clung to its place in the top four, edging out Texas A&M, which finished No. 5, and Oklahoma, No. 6. 

It's no surprise, then, that Notre Dame is such an underdog in this matchup between No. 1 and No. 4. In fact, underdog may not even cover it; the 20.5-point spread between the two teams is the largest in the history of the College Football Playoff. 

It's hard to bet against the Crimson Tide and their surgical consistency. Quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver DeVonta Smith are Heisman Trophy finalists; Smith was also named AP Player of the Year and SEC Offensive Player of the Year. Jones, meanwhile, has the best passer rating in the country. 

Alabama's offense was historic even by its own standards; during the regular season, the Crimson Tide averaged 49.5 points per game. In the SEC Championship Game, Alabama memorably dropped 52 points and 605 yards of total offense on Florida. 

Meanwhile, in the ACC title game, Notre Dame mustered just 10 points to Clemson's 34 and only 263 yards of total offense to Clemson's 541. 

It's not a direct parallel, of course, and Fighting Irish head coach Brian Kelly has insisted his team belongs in the semifinal. 

Alabama, however, will be the final judge of that on Friday. 

Prediction: Alabama 42, Notre Dame 21

      

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Notre Dame vs. Alabama: Odds and Score Prediction for Rose Bowl 2021

Jan 1, 2021
FILE - In this Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, file photo, Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) runs against Florida during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game in Atlanta. Smith has been named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. The Heisman will be awarded Jan. 5 during a virtual ceremony as the pandemic forced the cancellation of the usual trip to New York that for the presentation that usually comes with being a finalist.  (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson, File)
FILE - In this Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, file photo, Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) runs against Florida during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game in Atlanta. Smith has been named a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. The Heisman will be awarded Jan. 5 during a virtual ceremony as the pandemic forced the cancellation of the usual trip to New York that for the presentation that usually comes with being a finalist. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson, File)

The Alabama Crimson Tide have had their way with most of their opponents in the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff.

Nick Saban's program boasts a 4-1 record at this stage, and it could add another victory Friday against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Friday marks the first time the Crimson Tide will play in the Rose Bowl during the playoff era. That leaves the Fiesta Bowl as the only one of the New Year's Six bowls that the SEC champion has not played in during that time.

Like most of their other forays into the final four, Alabama is an overwhelming favorite—the biggest of the 2020-21 bowl season. If the Crimson Tide play the way they did for most of the regular season, they could cover the spread and help the game go over.

                      

Rose Bowl Odds

Spread: Alabama (-19.5)

Over/Under: 66

Moneyline: Alabama -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100); Notre Dame +575 (bet $100 to win $575)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

             

Score Prediction

Alabama 52, Notre Dame 17

Alabama averaged 14.5 more points per game than Notre Dame during the regular season.

The Crimson Tide enter Friday's game at AT&T Stadium off three straight 50-point performances and with two Heisman Trophy finalists in tow.

In Notre Dame's two games against the Clemson Tigers, they let up 74 points. The major difference between those performances was its offensive output. The Irish mustered just 10 points in the ACC Championship Game after putting up 47 on home soil in November.

If the Rose Bowl plays out similarly to the teams' respective conference championship game tilts, Alabama could have the victory locked up well before the fourth quarter.

One of the keys for Alabama will be scoring early. It produced 35 first-half points in the SEC Championship Game and totaled 118 points in the first two periods of its past three wins.

The Crimson Tide have not been wasteful with their drives, and they possess incredible quick-strike potential, with Mac Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith in a class above most of their opponents. Smith had a long reception of more than 30 yards in seven of Alabama's 11 games. Three of those top plays were over 50 yards. In four of his past five games, Harris recorded at least one run of 25 yards or more.

If Alabama batters the Notre Dame front seven with a healthy dose of Harris and then goes over the top for a few big passing plays to Smith, it could open up a substantial advantage by halftime.

Notre Dame scored three points in its lone playoff appearance, which ended in defeat against Clemson at the 2018 Cotton Bowl. Until Notre Dame proves it can score in bunches at the highest levels, it is hard to trust the team to do significant damage.

There is always a chance the Fighting Irish play the perfect game and come close to pulling off the upset. However, even if Brian Kelly's side turns in a masterclass outing against Alabama, it may not be able to slow down Harris and Smith for 60 minutes.

When Alabama was challenged in SEC play, it found an extra gear on offense to put away the Georgia Bulldogs and keep the Florida Gators at a safe distance.

With so much going in the Crimson Tide's favor, it is hard to predict against them, and with the spread inside three touchdowns, it seems reasonable for them to cover.

As long as the Alabama continues to score at a high pace, the over should be the best bet because you would have to rely on Notre Dame scoring 10-15 points, which it has done in every game this season.

                     

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

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Rose Bowl 2021: Odds, Daily Fantasy Tips for Notre Dame vs. Alabama

Dec 31, 2020
FILE - In this Dec. 5, 2020, file photo, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws during the first half of an NCAA college football game against LSU in Baton Rouge, La. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton, File)
FILE - In this Dec. 5, 2020, file photo, Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws during the first half of an NCAA college football game against LSU in Baton Rouge, La. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton, File)

Mac Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith are expected to be involved heavily for the Alabama Crimson Tide at the Rose Bowl. 

The offensive trio has not been slowed down by any challengers throughout the 2020 college football season, and they could add the Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense to the list of units it has run through. 

Given their importance to the Crimson Tide and the team's ability to produce a high total of points, Jones, Harris and Smith should highlight any daily fantasy roster, whether it be for a single game or for a full New Year's Day or national semifinal slate. 

To win those contests, you also need to add lower-salaried players to your roster. A search of Alabama's depth chart could help you with that.

As for Notre Dame, there should not be much trust it can keep pace with Alabama at full strength, but if it attempts to do so, it will be through the Ian Book-led passing game.

      

Rose Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Alabama (-20)

Over/Under: 65.5

Money Line: Alabama (-1115; bet $1,115 to win $100); Notre Dame (+600; bet $100 to win $600)

      

Daily Fantasy Tips

Use Depth Around Alabama's Offensive Stars

A majority of daily fantasy players should select at least two, or all three, of Alabama's offensive stars. 

The numbers Jones, Harris and Smith put up over 11 games are too hard to pass up from a volume perspective. 

Jones threw for 3,739 yards and 32 touchdowns, Harris ran for 1,262 yards and 24 scores and Smith caught 17 touchdown passes. 

If you place each player in your lineup, you will need a depth option to differentiate your squad from other competitors. 

John Metchie III had four catches for 62 yards in the SEC Championship game, and he produced over 100 yards in two games during the first half of the campaign. 

However, Metchie may be too popular a choice as Alabama's No. 2 wideout to separate yourself from the pack. 

Slade Bolden and Miller Forristall are probably the best depth options to include alongside the top quarterback, running back and wide receiver. 

Bolden picked up six receptions over the last two games, and Forristall recorded 72 yards in the same span. 

Neither player will be targeted a lot, but if they take advantage of their targets, they could be lineup difference-makers around the three standouts. 

         

Choose Michael Mayer From Notre Dame's Passing Attack

If Notre Dame keeps up with Alabama, Book needs to be at his best in the aerial attack. 

Freshman tight end Michael Mayer has been a consistent target of the senior quarterback, and he may be utilized in the short passing game across the middle. 

In four of the last five games, Mayer has averaged over 10 yards per catch. He had five receptions for 51 yards in the ACC Championship game defeat to the Clemson Tigers. 

Mayer could be the perfect value piece to play with an Alabama stack since he should not have a high salary compared to his teammates. 

The first-year player ranks third on the team in receiving yards and touchdown catches. He is second in receptions to Javon McKinley. 

McKinley and Ben Skowronek may be more popular options to pair with Book in a contrarian stack, or as complements to two of Alabama's stars, but Mayer should give you the best value if you make the popular choice of an Alabama stack.

          

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com

Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com for details

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Bowl Games 2020-21: Full Schedule and Predictions for College Football Playoff

Dec 31, 2020
Alabama running back Najee Harris (22) runs against Florida during the second half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Atlanta. Harris has been selected to The Associated Press All-America first-team offense, Monday, Dec. 28, 2020. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Alabama running back Najee Harris (22) runs against Florida during the second half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Atlanta. Harris has been selected to The Associated Press All-America first-team offense, Monday, Dec. 28, 2020. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

The seventh iteration of the College Football Playoff features four familiar programs. 

The Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers are both making their sixth appearances, and they could be on a collision course for their fourth playoff final meeting. 

Standing in the way of that potential showdown are the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Ohio State Buckeyes, who have a single national semifinal win between them from the Buckeyes' title-winning season that started the playoff era. 

Alabama and Clemson looked dominant in their final playoff tune-ups on conference championship weekend, and if their opponents do not improve on their mistakes from December 19, the SEC-ACC clash could be set up in the January 11 National Championship.

       

College Football Playoff Schedule

Friday, January 1

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame (4 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

       

Predictions

Alabama 52, Notre Dame 17

The main question going into the Rose Bowl is how many points will Alabama win by.

Nick Saban's program has outclassed every challenger that has come in front of it this season, and it has a 4-0 record against ranked opposition. 

Since returning from a two-week layoff to start November, the Crimson Tide reeled off four double-digit victories, held two opponents to three points and produced 50 points in three straight games. 

If you go further back on their schedule, the Crimson Tide produced at least 40 points in all but one of their 11 games. 

None of Alabama's opponents have been able to stop the offensive trio of Mac Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith. Jones and Smith are Heisman Trophy finalists, and Harris finished fifth in the award voting. 

Notre Dame is coming off an ACC Championship Game loss to Clemson in which it failed to contain the Tigers' top three offensive stars. 

The Fighting Irish conceded 34 points and allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw for over 300 yards, Travis Etienne to run for more than 100 yards and Amari Rodgers to eclipse the 100-yard receiving mark. 

Alabama has the potential to inflict much more pain on the Notre Dame defense with its offensive triumvirate that could put up the fourth 50-point score in the national semifinal round. 

The Crimson Tide also have a history of easily beating their semifinal opponent. All four of their semifinal victories, including one over Clemson, have been by double digits. 

Notre Dame could make life hard on Alabama if the Ian Book-led offense matches the SEC champion score for score, but it was unable to deliver such an impact in its second meeting with Clemson. 

           

Clemson 34, Ohio State 23

The Sugar Bowl should be the closer of the two semifinals. 

A year ago, Clemson and Ohio State played in one of the few final four clashes to be decided by a single-digit margin. 

In the playoff's six years, three semifinals have been decided by seven points or less. Ohio State has been involved in two of those games. The Buckeyes beat Alabama by a touchdown to advance to the 2015 National Championship.

The Big Ten champion can stay within a score of Clemson by keeping the ball out of Lawrence's hands for long stretches.

In its win over the Northwestern Wildcats, Ohio State called on running back Trey Sermon to do the heavy lifting on offense. Sermon finished with 331 rushing yards. 

If the Buckeyes put together a few long drives dictated by the run, they could keep Clemson from rattling off scoring drives. 

Ryan Day's side had the halftime lead at the 2019 Fiesta Bowl, but Clemson made some adjustments and took control in the second half. 

However, a second-half surge may not be needed out of Clemson if it continues to dominate the first half. It scored 24 of its 34 points in the ACC Championship Game before halftime.

Since Lawrence returned to the field on November 28, 79 of the Tigers' 131 points have come before halftime.

If Clemson strikes early again, it could create enough separation to take a few more risks at the start of the second half, whether it be through a long passing attempt from Lawrence or putting more pressure on Fields with blitzes. 

Clemson has not scored at the level of Alabama, so its winning margin could be a bit smaller. The Tigers have two 50-point performances while the Crimson Tide have three in the last three games. 

        

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com

DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris Top AP All-America Team; Trevor Lawrence 3rd Team

Dec 28, 2020
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) runs against Florida during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) runs against Florida during the first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2020, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

The No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide notched six Associated Press All-America first-team selections for the 2020 season, the most of any team, the AP announced Monday.

Quarterback Mac Jones, wideout DeVonta Smith, running back Najee Harris, offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood, center Landon Dickerson and cornerback Patrick Surtain II are Alabama's first-team selections.

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence—the overwhelming favorite to be the top overall selection in the 2021 NFL draft—was a third-team pick. Florida's Kyle Trask earned second-team quarterback honors.

Here is the full list of first-team All-America selections:

  • Quarterback: Mac Jones, Alabama
  • Running backs: Najee Harris, Alabama; Breece Hall, Iowa State
  • Tackles: Brady Christensen, BYU; Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
  • Guards: Aaron Banks, Notre Dame; Wyatt Davis, Ohio State
  • Center: Landon Dickerson, Alabama
  • Tight end: Kyle Pitts, Florida
  • Receivers: DeVonta Smith, Alabama; Elijah Moore, Mississippi
  • All-purpose player: Travis Etienne, Clemson
  • Kicker: Jose Borregales, Miami
  • Defensive ends: Rashad Weaver, Pitt; Tarron Jackson, Coastal Carolina
  • Defensive tackles: Daviyon Nixon, Iowa; Darius Stills, West Virginia
  • Linebackers: Zaven Collins, Tulsa; Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame; Joseph Ossai, Texas
  • Cornerbacks: Patrick Surtain II, Alabama; Shaun Wade, Ohio State
  • Safeties: Talanoa Hufanga, USC; Brandon Joseph, Northwestern
  • Punter: Pressley Harvin III, Georgia Tech

Alabama had eight All-America selections in total, as defensive tackle Christian Barmore and linebacker Dylan Moses made the third team.

Both Jones and Smith are Heisman finalists after superb 2020 seasons. Jones has been a revelation in his junior year, throwing for 3,739 yards, 32 touchdowns and four interceptions in 11 games while completing a whopping 76.5 percent of his passes.

Smith, a senior, lit up the SEC in 2020, catching 98 passes for 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns, averaging 15.4 yards per reception. He's a likely top-10 pick in the 2020 NFL draft, one of two receivers likely to be off the board quickly (LSU's Ja'Marr Chase is the other).

Lawrence and Trask were the other two Heisman finalists. While Lawrence played in just nine games, he threw for 2,753 yards with 22 touchdowns and four picks. Trask put up monster numbers in his 11 games with 4,125 yards, 43 scores and just five interceptions.

Of the other College Football Playoff finalists, Clemson had two All-America selections (Etienne and Lawrence), while Ohio State had three (Davis, Wade and second-team defensive tackle Haskell Garrett). Notre Dame placed five players on All-America teams: Banks and Owusu-Koramoah on the first team, offensive tackle Liam Eichenberg on the second team, and guard Tommy Kraemer and safety Kyle Hamilton on the third team.