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Ohio State vs. Alabama: NFL Draft Prospects Playing in CFP Championship 2021

Jan 6, 2021
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields warms up before the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football game against Clemson Friday, Jan. 1, 2021, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields warms up before the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football game against Clemson Friday, Jan. 1, 2021, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Alabama and Ohio State are two of the top college football programs in the country on an annual basis. That's part of the reason why they're going head-to-head in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game on Monday night.

And neither team is likely to stop being successful anytime soon, considering they currently have the top two 2021 recruiting classes in the country, according to the 247Sports' composite rankings, with the Crimson Tide having a slight edge over the Buckeyes for the top spot.

Another area in which both programs are successful? Sending players on to the NFL. There are plenty of former Alabama and Ohio State standouts making an impact at the next level, and some of the programs' current players are likely to soon join them.

Here's a look at some of the players participating in Monday's CFP National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami who are probable top prospects for the 2021 NFL draft, which is set to take place April 29-May 1 in Cleveland.

        

Alabama

  • Mac Jones, QB
  • Najee Harris, RB
  • DeVonta Smith, WR
  • Jaylen Waddle, WR
  • Alex Leatherwood, OT
  • Dylan Moses, LB
  • Patrick Surtain II, CB

Smith is the most exciting prospect on this list after becoming the first wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy since Michigan's Desmond Howard in 1991.

The 22-year-old has put up huge numbers (105 receptions for 1,641 yards and 22 total touchdowns), and he was ranked as the No. 4 overall prospect on ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.'s most recent big board.

Over his four-year career with the Crimson Tide, he has played consistently well, setting the stage for his huge 2020 season. It wouldn't be surprising if he's the first wide receiver taken in the 2021 draft.

Smith isn't the only Alabama receiver who's likely to be a first-round pick. Waddle (Kiper's No. 8 overall prospect) should also be taken with an opening pick, if he decides to leave school early.

The junior has played only four games this season and hasn't been in action since Oct. 17 because of a fractured ankle, but Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban indicated Tuesday there's a chance he could return for the national championship.

Jones has greatly improved his draft stock during his redshirt junior season, as he's now ranked No. 15 on Kiper's big board, which puts him fourth among quarterbacks.

The Alabama signal-caller, who finished third in Heisman Trophy voting, has passed for 4,036 yards, 36 touchdowns and four interceptions.

Harris (Kiper's No. 1 RB) and Leatherwood (No. 5 OT) are also Alabama offensive players who should garner a lot of interest early in the draft. On defense, Surtain (No. 1 CB) and Moses (No. 6 ILB) have been among the Crimson Tide's leaders, and they are exciting draft prospects as well.

Alabama has had at least three players selected in the first round of the NFL draft in each of the past four years. And with so many talented names likely to be heading to the pros after Monday's game, the Tide have a strong opportunity to keep that streak going.

             

Ohio State

  • Justin Fields, QB
  • Trey Sermon, RB
  • Chris Olave, WR
  • Wyatt Davis, OG
  • Shaun Wade, CB

Fields is the best prospect among this list, and he's still continuing to improve his draft stock as the season goes on.

The 21-year-old had an incredible showing against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, passing for 385 yards and six touchdowns to lead Ohio State to victory in the CFP semifinal.

Not only that, but Fields played through a rib injury he suffered during the game. It was a strong performance that showed why Kiper previously had him ranked as the No. 3 overall prospect in the 2021 draft class and the No. 2 quarterback behind only Clemson's Trevor Lawrence.

While Lawrence is widely expected to go to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, it's quite possible the New York Jets, who own the No. 2 overall selection, could consider drafting Fields should they decide they want to move on from Sam Darnold.

Sermon was Kiper's No. 3-ranked running back on his big board, and he's since had two huge showings for the Buckeyes. In the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern, he ran for 331 yards and two touchdowns, and he then rushed for 193 yards and a touchdown against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl.

If the 21-year-old finishes his college career with another big game against Alabama, it could lead to the Ohio State running back moving further up draft rankings heading into the offseason.

Olave (Kiper's No. 7 WR) and Davis (No. 2 G) are also offensive players for the Buckeyes who could be selected early in the 2021 draft, as each has impressed during their time at the school.

Last year, former Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah was selected by the Detroit Lions with the No. 3 overall pick. Wade likely won't go that early in 2021, but he's another Buckeyes corner with the potential to excel at the next level, and Kiper has him ranked as the No. 4 at the position.

College Football Championship 2021: OSU vs. Alabama Odds, Projected Winner

Jan 6, 2021
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) hands the ball off to running back Najee Harris (22) in the first half of the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game against Notre Dame in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Roger Steinman)
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) hands the ball off to running back Najee Harris (22) in the first half of the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game against Notre Dame in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Roger Steinman)

The odds for 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship give us two things we do not typically see. 

The first is the Alabama Crimson Tide as a single-digit favorite and the other is an over/under set at 75.5 points. 

The projected total for Monday's contest opened at 76, which is an unusually high number for a college football title game in any era. 

Alabama enters Hard Rock Stadium with the more dominant set of performances this season. While it is capable of pulling off another double-digit victory, the spread may be right on point for its matchup with an offense that came alive in the Sugar Bowl.

          

National Championship Odds

Spread: Alabama (-8.5)

Over/Under: 75.5

Money Line: Alabama (-286; bet $286 to win $100); Ohio State (+220; bet $100 to win $220)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

       

Projected Winner

Alabama 35, Ohio State 30

The spread is moving in Alabama's favor, as it jumped from 7.5 to 8.5 on Tuesday. 

That number is still low compared to the spreads posted in the Crimson Tide's favor for most of the season. Alabama was a 19.5-point favorite over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Rose Bowl and was favored by 20 or more points for the six games leading up to the SEC Championship Game. 

Alabama has proved throughout the season it is more than capable of blowing out even the toughest opponents on its schedule. In five games against Top 25 opposition, it has an average margin of victory of 19.4 points. The only ranked foe to finish within 10 points of the Tide was Florida. 

Alabama did not cover its Rose Bowl spread due to a late Notre Dame touchdown, but it was in total control of the contest from the start. The game felt more like a 35-point blowout than a 31-14 victory.

The Crimson Tide may not experience the same level of control Monday since Ohio State is coming off its best outing of the season. 

In two playoff games in the last two seasons, the Buckeyes have proved they belong among the nation's elite programs. They lost to Clemson by six points in last season's semifinal and walloped the ACC champion in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day. 

If Justin Fields plays close to the six-touchdown level he did at the Sugar Bowl, Ohio State should have an opportunity to win the game in the fourth quarter. 

Ryan Day's team also possesses a dominant feature running back in Trey Sermon. Alabama has not faced many of those in its meetings with Top 25 teams. Florida lacked a consistent running game and Notre Dame's Kyren Williams is a year or two away from being one of the top running backs in the country. 

Sermon has 524 rushing yards in his last two games, and if Ohio State feeds him on a regular basis, the Buckeyes could control the clock while taking some pressure off Fields to do everything himself.

Even if both offenses are clicking on Monday, there is still a chance the number of points flies under the projected total.

According to ESPN's David Bearman, there have only been two national championship games since 1998 that have gone over 76 points. 

Both teams are capable of putting up over 40 points, but all it takes is one or two stops in each half to put the under well in play. 

Two of Ohio State's last four games featured a total of 77 points, but one of those results was caused by a late surge from the Indiana Hoosiers. If the Buckeyes are tighter on defense, they should avoid a landslide of points in the final two quarters. 

Five of Alabama's last six games have gone under the projected national championship total. Only the SEC Championship Game produced a score that would have cleared Monday's over.

With that in mind, the under feels like the safest bet for the CFP National Championship. If Ohio State plays as it did on New Year's Day, taking it to cover could be a confident wager as well.

           

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

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Ohio State vs. Alabama: Latest Odds Advice for CFP National Championship 2021

Jan 5, 2021
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields warms up before the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football game against Clemson Friday, Jan. 1, 2021, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields warms up before the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football game against Clemson Friday, Jan. 1, 2021, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

The Alabama Crimson Tide typically play in close games in the College Football Playoff National Championship.

Nick Saban's program won its two titles in the playoff era by a combined eight points. One of its two title-game defeats was by four points. 

Alabama sits as a 7.5-point favorite over the Ohio State Buckeyes for the January 11 title clash at Hard Rock Stadium.

Based on Alabama's track record in three of its four National Championships and Ohio State's offensive performance at the Sugar Bowl, the pick that may make the most sense is for the Buckeyes to cover.

              

National Championship Odds

Spread: Alabama (-7.5)

Over/Under: 75.5

Moneyline: Alabama (-305; bet $305 to win $100); Ohio State (+235; bet $100 to win $235)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

       

Odds Advice

Alabama was a covering machine until it reached the most difficult part of its schedule. 

The Crimson Tide failed to cover in the SEC Championship Game and Rose Bowl. They were favored by more than 15 points in each contest. 

Ohio State has the potential to put up a similar performance as the Florida Gators had on December 19.

The Buckeyes have the offensive firepower to keep up with the trio of Mac Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith, which could push the contest toward a high total. 

Justin Fields is coming off the best performance of his career, as he threw for 385 yards and six touchdowns. The return of Chris Olave aided Ohio State's big-play potential and that showed on the 56-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter that the wide receiver hauled in in stride. 

Olave is the best counter to Smith that the Buckeyes have, and if he can break down the Alabama secondary, the Buckeyes have a good chance to remain within one score. 

In the SEC Championship Game, Kyle Trask had two touchdown throws of 50 or more yards to Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes. If Ohio State exploits the same weaknesses with Olave and Garrett Wilson, it should be competitive for all four quarters.

Alabama's defensive performance in some games against tougher offenses suggests the Buckeyes will remain within one or two scores. 

In a three-game stretch in October, the Crimson Tide allowed 24 points each to the Texas A&M Aggies and Georgia Bulldogs and let up 48 points to the Ole Miss Rebels.

After the Georgia win, the Alabama defense held six straight opponents under 20 points, but five of those teams were unranked. 

Ohio State has not had a shutdown defense against Top 25 foes either, as it conceded over 20 points in three of its four Top 25 matchups.

That trend should continue, with an offense that averages 48.2 points and 535 yards per game lining up across from the Buckeyes defense. 

Alabama and Ohio State will score a good amount of points, but it may be difficult for them to hit the over if a few defensive stops are made. 

A single National Championship in the playoff era featured more than 70 points. That was Alabama's 45-40 win over the Clemson Tigers in 2016. 

The six previous title games averaged 64.8 points per game, so it could take two extraordinary offensive efforts for Monday's participants to eclipse the current total of 75.5 points. 

The lines could be altered by kickoff in six days, but for now, the best bet appears to be the under. If you believe Ohio State can keep pace with Alabama's offense, it would be worth betting on the Buckeyes against the spread with the Crimson Tide getting slightly more than a touchdown on the spread.

           

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

 If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
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Ohio State vs. Alabama: Odds, Top X-Factors for CFP National Championship 2021

Jan 4, 2021
Alabama tight end Jahleel Billingsley (19) reaches up to catch a touchdown pass in the first half of the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game against Notre Dame in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
Alabama tight end Jahleel Billingsley (19) reaches up to catch a touchdown pass in the first half of the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game against Notre Dame in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)

Mac Jones and Justin Fields have to pick out more than just their top wide receivers to achieve success in the College Football Playoff National Championship. 

Jones completed a pass to eight different Alabama Crimson Tide players in the Rose Bowl, while Fields found seven of his teammates in the Ohio State Buckeyes' Sugar Bowl victory.

With so much attention expected to be paid to DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave, the two quarterbacks need to utilize their other offensive weapons to gain an edge.

Over the last few weeks, Jones has relied on Jahleel Billingsley as a scoring threat. Fields' most important X-factors may be his tight ends, who he targeted on a frequent basis on New Year's Day.

         

National Championship Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Alabama (-7.5)

Over/Under: 76

Money Line: Alabama (-305; bet $305 to win $100); Ohio State (+235; bet $100 to win $235)

     

Top X-Factors

Jahleel Billingsley, TE, Alabama

Billingsley is listed as a tight end, but he looks like a wide receiver. 

The sophomore has used his athleticism to break free in certain matchups against Alabama's most-recent opponents. 

Dating back to the Iron Bowl on November 28, Billingsley has a touchdown reception in three of the last four games. 

In five of his six appearances, Billingsley recorded a catch of 15 yards or longer. He had a string of three straight games with a 20-yard reception or longer from November 21-December 5. 

Jones is expected to target Smith at a high rate, but he will have to spread the ball around to keep the Ohio State secondary honest. 

In the Rose Bowl, Billingsley was one of four Alabama wide receivers beneath Smith on the stat chart to have at least three receptions and 30 yards. 

If Jones spreads the ball out again on January 11, Billingsley could be one of the top targets, especially in the red zone, who helps Bama create some separation on the scoreboard. 

        

Jeremy Ruckert, TE, Ohio State

Jeremy Ruckert is more of a traditional tight end than Billingsley, as he is listed as two inches taller and over 20 pounds heavier.

The junior tight end was an important piece of Ohio State's offensive outburst in the Sugar Bowl, as two of the three passes he caught went for touchdowns. 

In fact, just under half of the catches made by Ruckert have gone for six points. He has five touchdowns on 12 receptions.

If Fields utilizes Ruckert and Luke Farrell across the middle, he could extend drives and make some important red-zone throws that make the difference between touchdowns and field goals. 

Fields' top threat is Olave, who he should target the most, but the Buckeyes need more versatility in the passing game to deal with the Alabama defense. 

If Ruckert is used on a consistent basis, he could occupy the Alabama linebackers, which could then up open up more gaps in the running game for Fields and Trey Sermon. 

If Ohio State's offense becomes one-dimensional with most of the passing options taken away, the Buckeyes could be at a disadvantage they can't recover from.

        

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com

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College Football Championship 2021: Odds, Top Matchups in Ohio State vs. Alabama

Jan 2, 2021
Alabama defensive back Patrick Surtain II (2) runs during an NCAA college football game against LSU in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020. Surtain was selected to The Associated Press All-America first-team defense, Monday, Dec. 28, 2020. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)
Alabama defensive back Patrick Surtain II (2) runs during an NCAA college football game against LSU in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020. Surtain was selected to The Associated Press All-America first-team defense, Monday, Dec. 28, 2020. (AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Justin Fields had his way with the Clemson Tigers secondary to put his team into the 2021 College Football Playoff National Championship.

On January 11, Fields will face a much tougher test against the Alabama Crimson Tide, who possess a potential top-10 NFL draft pick at cornerback in Patrick Surtain II. He could be one of the difference-makers on the Alabama roster, as he should be matched up with Chris Olave.

The Olave-Surtain matchup is one of many intriguing individual battles to watch at Hard Rock Stadium.

Alabama's offensive stars have to deal with an Ohio State front seven that made Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne feel uncomfortable for most of the Sugar Bowl. If the Crimson Tide offensive line breaks open holes for Najee Harris, it could give the SEC champion the edge it needs to outperform the Buckeyes.

                    

Odds

Spread: Alabama (-7)

Over/Under: 76

Via DraftKings Sportsbook.

              

Critical Matchups

Chris Olave vs. Patrick Surtain II

Fields was much more effective with Olave at his disposal.

In the Big Ten Championship Game, with Olave missing for unspecified reason, Fields struggled to break down the Northwestern Wildcats defense and managed just 114 passing yards on 12 complete passes. On Friday, Fields hooked up with Olave for six catches, 132 yards and two of his six touchdown passes.

Olave is the closest talent Ohio State has to matching Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith, and it needs him to perform at a high level. Alabama corner Surtain, however, will be a tough matchup for the wideout. He allowed a single catch on two targets in the Rose Bowl:

Surtain could be the first defensive back off the board in the 2021 NFL draft, and a shutdown performance against Olave would help him cement that status. If Surtain takes Olave out of the game, Fields will have to call on Garrett Wilson and tight ends Jeremy Ruckert and Luke Farrell. Fields' connection with his tight ends helped Ohio State open up its advantage over Clemson, but they are not his top targets.

Were Olave nullified, it would force Wilson, Julian Fleming or the tight ends to step up, which they did not do when only two wide receivers caught passes against Northwestern.

                    

Najee Harris vs. Ohio State's Defensive Line

Harris recorded 303 rushing yards on 46 carries in his past two games.

The Alabama senior could be the most important offensive player to his team's success January 11, but he is set to face a tough interior unit. Ohio State's defensive line, led by Haskell Garrett, held Clemson to 44 rushing yards, recorded five tackles for loss and sacked Lawrence on two occasions.

A successful day for Harris would make the Big Ten champion pay more attention to him and potentially keep pressure away from Mac Jones.

Harris owns three 125-plus-yard performances against Top 25 sides and totaled six rushing touchdowns in five ranked matchups. The Rose Bowl marked the first time this season he did not score a rushing touchdown against a Top 25 foe.

If Harris is effective in the red zone, Alabama could have the edge in the scoring column and may be able to put away Ohio State before the fourth quarter.

               

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

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DeVonta Smith, Alabama Dominate Notre Dame, Advance to 2021 CFP Title Game

Jan 1, 2021
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) and wide receiver John Metchie III (8) celebrate Smith's touchdown catch as Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton (14) walks away in the first half of the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) and wide receiver John Metchie III (8) celebrate Smith's touchdown catch as Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton (14) walks away in the first half of the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

Alabama will compete in the College Football Playoff National Championship for the fifth time in six years after beating Notre Dame 31-14 in the Rose Bowl.

The Crimson Tide opened as a three-score favorite and delivered a dominant performance to justify that status.

For the Fighting Irish, this is yet another overwhelming defeat on the big stage. Despite that big win over Clemson in November, the gap between them and the Power Five elite seems to be as wide as ever. 

It was the Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith show. Harris went for 100-plus yards for the sixth time this season, and Smith tied a Rose Bowl record with three touchdown receptions.

Smith earned MVP honors on offense, while Patrick Surtain II was the defensive MVP.

In general, the night unfolded almost exactly as everybody expected the moment Alabama and Notre Dame were paired up in the semifinals. The Crimson Tide averaged 7.9 yards per play compared to 4.7 for the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame at least covered, so that was something.

           

Notable Performers

Mac Jones, QB, Alabama: 25-of-30, 297 yards, four touchdowns; five carries, 12 yards

Najee Harris, RB, Alabama: 15 carries, 125 yards; four receptions, 30 yards

DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama: seven receptions, 130 yards, three touchdowns

Ian Book, QB, Notre Dame: 27-of-39, 229 yards, one interception; 15 carries, 55 yards, one touchdown

Kyren Williams, RB, Notre Dame: 16 carries, 64 yards, one touchdown; eight receptions, 31 yards

            

Smith, Harris Prove Unstoppable

Notre Dame's first scoring drive required 15 plays to go 75 yards and ate 8:03 off the clock. Alabama responded by needing just six plays to go 84 yards in less than two minutes, 30 seconds. There's simply no respite against this offense.

Brian Kelly probably had flashbacks to the 2013 BCS National Championship Game when he watched Harris' 53-yard run in the first quarter.

That BCS title game is a helpful reminder of how Nick Saban has evolved. T.J. Yeldon and Eddie Lacy combined to run for 248 yards on 41 carries. In a previous iteration of the Alabama attack, Harris may have logged a similar workload.

Instead, Saban made sure to set up situations where the ball could wind up in Smith's hands.

We've seen what Alabama can look like with its foot on the gas (a 45-14 halftime lead against LSU). You got the feeling Saban was holding something back once it became clear his players were dialed in. When your offense is nearly getting a first down on every snap, you can seriously embarrass your opponent if you're committed enough.

It's theoretically possible to beat Alabama—Florida almost did it in the SEC title game. And this probably isn't even the best team Nick Saban has had in Tuscaloosa. Good luck trying to take down the Tide, though. 

            

New Year, Same Notre Dame

The CFP selection committee faced a conundrum when it put together its final rankings. On merit, Notre Dame was as deserving as any other contender for the fourth seed. But the Fighting Irish still looked to be below the level at which Alabama played during the regular season.

When Chris Tyree fumbled the opening kickoff, it set the tone for a story college football fans have seen numerous times before.

Falling behind by two scores was what Notre Dame couldn't afford to let happen.

The Irish offense is generally pretty deliberate, with that eight-minute drive that spanned the first and second quarters a prime example. A 14-point first quarter deficit required not only leaving that comfort zone but also getting defensive stops and turning those into points.

Friday's game was a total disaster, and Notre Dame never looked competitive. There wasn't a point after Smith's second touchdown when you thought a comeback might be in the cards.

At some point, Notre Dame's luck in New Year's Six bowls will turn around. When that happens is anybody's guess.

          

What's Next?

Alabama awaits the winner of the the Sugar Bowl between Ohio State and Clemson. The Crimson Tide will meet the victor on Jan. 11 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.