College Football Playoff 2020-21: Odds, Schedule and Predictions for Semifinals
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish's ACC Championship Game performance did nothing to suggest they will cover the enormous spread against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The top seed in the four-team playoff is favored by 19.5 points going into the Rose Bowl, which will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Alabama has been an offensive machine all season long, and it could do the same damage to Notre Dame's defense that the Clemson Tigers did in their 34-10 ACC Championship Game victory.
Clemson is a 7.5-point favorite for its semifinal game at the Sugar Bowl against the Ohio State Buckeyes. A year ago at the Fiesta Bowl, the Tigers beat the Buckeyes by six points.
If Dabo Swinney's squad flexes its muscles in a similar fashion as the ACC title game, we could see both favorites cover in the semifinals and set up the fourth Alabama-Clemson championship game of the playoff era.
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Alabama (-19.5) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
Date and Time: January 1, 2021; 4 p.m. ET, ESPN
Prediction: Alabama
Alabama put up 50 points in each of its last three contests.
The Crimson Tide's offensive machine produced two Heisman Trophy finalists in quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver DeVonta Smith. Running back Najee Harris finished fifth in Heisman voting.
In the SEC Championship Game, Harris ran for 178 yards and Smith brought in 184 of the 418 yards thrown by Jones.
None of Alabama's opponents have been able to contain the heralded trio. The Crimson Tide outscored their four ranked foes 187-107. The Florida Gators were the only one of the four to record more than 25 points.
Notre Dame appeared to be a formidable force going into the playoff until it was held to 10 points by Clemson on Saturday.
The loss to a full-strength Clemson squad with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback and its 30-3 loss to the Tigers two seasons ago in the playoff give us little confidence in Notre Dame's ability to hang with Alabama.
Before the ACC Championship Game, Notre Dame's defense was viewed as its strength since it limited the North Carolina Tar Heels to 17 points on November 27.
That performance ended up not being a good measuring stick.
Since the start of the 2018 season, Notre Dame is 1-3 against top-five programs and 1-2 versus Clemson in that span. If the Irish fail to remain competitive on New Year's Day, Alabama could cruise to a victory that covers the spread.
Alabama has four semifinal victories in five playoff appearances, and three of those wins were by 18 points or more.
No. 2 Clemson (-7.5) vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Date and Time: January 1, 2021; 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Prediction: Clemson
Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields will do battle for the second straight year in the playoff semifinals.
Lawrence still has running back Travis Etienne at his disposal. Etienne was Clemson's top receiver in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl, while the junior quarterback led the Tigers in rushing.
If the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft slings the ball as well as he did against Notre Dame, Clemson could have a much larger margin of victory than the 29-23 win over the Buckeyes last season.
Five Clemson players had at least three receptions in the ACC Championship Game, and Amari Rodgers led the group with 121 yards and a score off eight catches.
Clemson's abundance of offensive weapons will pose the toughest test to Ohio State's defense all season. The Indiana Hoosiers possessed the most dangerous offense of the Buckeyes' Big Ten foes, and OSU conceded 35 points in that game.
The Tigers are in a much higher offensive class than the Hoosiers, with at least one potential first-round pick in Lawrence and another first-round talent in Etienne.
Ohio State dominated the Big Ten Championship Game through its ground attack. Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon recorded 331 rushing yards in the 22-10 victory, but he may not have much success against a Clemson defense that limited Notre Dame to 44 rushing yards in the ACC Championship Game.
If Sermon is ineffective and Fields is unable to match Lawrence's passing production, Clemson could cruise into the National Championship Game.
Clemson's four previous semifinal victories had an average margin of victory of 21 points, and two of those wins have come over the Buckeyes.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.
Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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