MLB Odds & Betting

Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America, and we are on fire.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame.

• 2021 NRFI record: 52-25 (67.5%)
• Last Week: 20-9 (69.0%)
• As posted on Twitter @TroyHermo

What a week it has been, NRFI nation. We went 20-9, splitting our first extreme multi-unit "whale hunts," and I came to the realization I need to tighten it up units-wise or the juice will be our bankroll noose.

Nobody wants that.

I've got the research down, I have the information ready, and I'm hitting at a profitable percentage. Now it's time to execute big games. Become a big-game hunter, if you will. I've decided all Hermo Hammers will be two units. Normal plays will be 0.5-1.5 units, and plays of the month or big-game hunts will be four units. Keep it consistent, and we will keep it profitable. That's what everyone wants.

I want to help you become a better gambler, and that's deciding what unit matches your budget. I will explain that below in the bankroll and unit section. The Hermo standard.

Speaking of standard, this is our standard operating procedure. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.

But first, what you came here for: the locks, the hammers, the info you can't go without, especially on an NRFI Night in America.

        

NRFIs of the Week: The Hermo Hammer Locks

2-Unit Hammer: Cincinnati Reds (Jeff Hoffman) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler) -104

The return of Walker NRFI Ranger.

Walker Buehler, the legend in the making, has a 1.80 lifetime first-inning ERA. In three starts against the Cincinnati Reds, he has a 3-0 NRFI record—giving me and NRFI nation confidence he will cool off the Reds bats in the top half of the inning.

The bottom half will be the sweat. Mookie Betts is 2-for-2 versus Jeff Hoffman with two home runs. However, I'm not going to overlook Hoffman's success this year: perfect 4-0 in NRFI chances with a 0.00 first-inning ERA. We ride the hot hand and let Walker handle the rest.

Fun stat: In four starts, Buehler has faced the minimum 12 batters in the first inning. Vibey.

        

2-Unit Hammer: Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales) at Houston Astros (Cristian Javier) -107

The Scoop

• Cristian Javier is 13-0 in NRFI opportunities.
• Marco Gonzales has a 3.33 career first-inning ERA. Last year, he posted an impressive 2.45 ERA, and he sports a 3-1 NRFI record with a 4.50 first-inning ERA in 2021.
• In Javier's last start against the Mariners, he struck out the side in the first inning.
• Gonzales has a 5-3 NRFI record when facing the Astros.

   

1-Unit Play: Minnesota Twins (Kenta Maeda) at Cleveland (Aaron Civale) -124

The Scoop

• Kenta Maeda is as comfortable as can be in a Twins uniform in the first inning. In 2020, he had a fantastic 2.45 first-inning ERA. He is even better with a perfect 0.00 ERA in four starts in 2021. The top five batters in the Cleveland lineup hit a combined .204 versus Maeda.
• Aaron Civale, or as I called him last year "Cigar Civale," led me and NRFI nation to some big wins last year. Has a 3.12 career first-inning ERA.

   

YRFI of the Day (Yes, I Play the Opposite of the NRFI If the Stats Are Right)

Detroit Tigers (Jose Urena) at Chicago White Sox (Lucas Giolito) +102

The Scoop

• Jose Urena has struggled in the first in his career with a 5.44 ERA. Last year, that was especially on display with a 10.80 first-inning ERA. While he has only a 4.50 ERA this year, he does not look confident. The Chicago White Sox's red-hot bats will continue to roll, as they average 0.8 runs in the first, which ranks third in MLB, according to TeamRankings.com.
• Lucas Giolito, despite showing great poise and brilliance in 2020, had a 6.00 first-inning ERA. For his career, it's not any better: 6.24. You'd think the ace would turn it around, but in four 2021 starts, it sits at a whopping 11.25.

   

Bankroll Management and Deciding What a Unit Should Be: The Hermo 3 Percent Rule

Rule No. 1: No max bet should ever exceed 3 percent of your monthly wages. This will help you find your base unit measurement.

Example: For $4,000 per month in wages, 3 percent would be $120. Let's say a max bet for the average bettor is five units, so divide $120 by five, and you get $24. So $24 is your base unit. So when I say one unit, you will be playing $24. This will keep the risk low and keep it at an affordable rate. I catch myself on really good matchups wanting to push the envelope. But it's best to stay the course and always go back to this system. If you want to bet more, make more.

Rule No. 2: Parlays are fun, but they should never be taken as serious investment opportunities. Max bet is 1 percent of monthly wages.

Example: For $4,000 per month salary, 1 percent would be $40. So you could do $5 Hail Mary parlays on NRFI Night in America. Parlays in the long run are not profitable. But they are fun in group settings, on holidays and on NFL Sundays to spice up the vibes. Just don't let it be everything in your portfolio. You would rather have a profitable 2-1 day then an unprofitable one because you got carried away and put a half-unit prayer in your can't-miss parlay.

Rule No. 3: No matter what I say or what you read from experts, do what's right for you.

I played blackjack one night with my dad and his friend Randy. We played with on old fisherman who had just got back from a six-month Deadliest Catch-style fishing trip. He was drunk and loaded. Playing table max all night. The guy would yell out "Yee-haw!" like a drunk cowboy when the table won. He was a vibe machine. The favorite thing I learned from him that night came after he doubled down on 12 and lost. He looked at me and said, "It's not about the money; it's about what's in your heart," and pounded his chest.

He cashed out that night for well over $5,000. Even if we screeched every time he made a bet with low odds, he gambled with his heart and came out a winner.

Let's win responsibly and remember this is always for fun. As a family. As a nation.

America's game.
America's bet.
Six outs to glory.
NRFI nation.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America, and we are on fire these past few days.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame.

NRFI nation: What a ride it has been these past two weeks. We are 32-16 in 2021 after we ripped off an 8-1 record at the end of last week. Vibes and followers in NRFI nation are off the charts and reaching new levels every day.

You know the drill by now. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.

Here are the four NRFI locks for Tuesday's slate. Let's keep the momentum rolling.

       

NRFI of the Week: The Hermo Hammer Lock

3-Unit Play: San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb) at Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler) -106

Love, love, love this matchup. We get one of the lowest-scoring first-inning offenses in the league in the Giants (0.4 runs per game) facing Zack Wheeler—who had a 0.82 first-inning ERA in 11 starts last season. This year Wheeler is at 6.00, but that's because he had a blown first inning on the road. In fact, Wheeler "The NRFI dealer" is a home NRFI pitcher.

Which brings us to my NRFI stat of the night: In 15 career starts at Citizens Bank Park, Wheeler has a 13-2 record in keeping his half of the first inning scoreless. Vibey. If you're not sold enough, he also has a career 7-0 NRFI record versus the Giants.

Logan Webb has a 3.86 career first-inning ERA, making him one of the more reliable NRFI pitchers in the NL West. So far this year, he hasn't allowed a first-inning run in two starts, giving me the utmost confidence he will pull through for NRFI nation.

        

Other Locks

2-Unit Play: Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes) at San Diego Padres (Chris Paddack) -137

The Scoop

• Corbin Burnes is an NRFI machine. In 16 career starts, he has a 1.69 first-inning ERA. Last year, it was 2.00, and in three starts this year he is perfect at 0.00.
• Chris Paddack has a 13-6 record of keeping his half of the first inning scoreless at Petco Park.
• Paddock holds a 3.73 career first-inning ERA through 41 starts.

     

1-Unit Play: Minnesota Twins (Matt Shoemaker) at Oakland Athletics (Sean Manaea) -122

The Scoop

• Shoemaker has a 3.82 career first-inning ERA. Last year it was even better at 1.50 through six starts. In 2021, he has been an NRFI star, remaining perfect in two starts.
• Shoemaker has a 10-5 NRFI record against the A's, including 6-3 at Oakland Coliseum.
• Manaea sports a 2.93 ERA in 98.1 career first innings.
• This would be a two-unit play if the wind weren't blowing out at 10-12 mph. Not vibey.

       

1-Unit Play: St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin) +112

The Scoop

• In Wainwright's 16-year career, he has a 3.83 first-inning ERA. This year, he is perfect through three starts.
• Wainwright has a 12-4 record of keeping the Nationals scoreless in the first inning in his career.
• Patrick Corbin has a 5-2 record of keeping the Cardinals scoreless in seven starts. Corbin loves pitching at Nationals Park with a 20-6 NRFI record all-time.

   

NRFI Night in America

Join in on the new betting sensation that's sweeping the nation.
20 minutes, low juice, little sweat, we cash.
Six outs to glory.
No more waiting around to cash tickets.
Best bet in baseball. Best bet in sports. Best group of fans on the planet.
NRFI nation.

   

I've been asked how I do this research, and it's simple—just time consuming. Even you at home can become an NRFI nation handicapper. Research is the most important tool of investing in stocks and bonds, and it should be the most important tool with your sports gambling as well. Stats and records designed to give us an edge—like a pitcher's first-inning ERA—can tip us off about whether a player is comfortable starting games.

Here's the step-by-step procedure to become an NRFI legend the same way my dad taught me.

   

Handicapping NRFIs: The Hermo Way

Step 1: Follow @TroyHermo on Twitter for fun facts and scoops provided throughout the day.

Step 2: Dig to find out first-inning ERAs on Baseball Reference in the splits section.

Example: In today's card, Burnes has a 1.69 ERA in the first inning in 16 starts. That's unbelievable, even for such a small sample size. On the other hand, some players stick out YRFI-wise, including Julio Urias of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The poor guy has a 5.05 career first-inning ERA, was at 9.00 last year and in three starts this year is at 6.00. Big yikes.

Step 3: Something I majorly consider is career records in the first inning against opponents. For example, my NRFI stat of the night, which is Wheeler sporting a 13-2 NRFI record of keeping his half of the inning scoreless at Citizens Bank Park in 15 starts. Another great example is Nationals starter Patrick Corbin's 20-6 record at Nationals Park in keeping his half of the inning scoreless.

Step 4: Check the batter vs. pitcher stats on DailyBaseballData.com, and you can find really good tidbits of info that will push you to lock or push you to stay away.

Example: Atlanta Braves superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. is 1-for-3 with a home run against the New York Yankees' Jameson Taillon, so I'm going to stay away from this game as the Braves already rank No. 1 in runs in the first inning this year (1.2 per game), even if Acuna misses the game with an abdominal strain. They mashed four homers against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday.

Step 5: TeamRankings.com shows first-inning runs per game so we know who is killing NRFI nation this year.

Step 6: If you can't decide if it's a lock by this step, go to DailyBaseballData.com and click the weather tab. It shows what the wind and precipitation will be like for the games and where it's blowing.

Step 7: It's a lot of work, so if you ever feel like "I don't want to do this," just refer back to Step 1 and you are all set. I will do the work for you! I only select the best of the best matchups, and if the stats don't jump off the page, I stay away.

Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America, and we are locked in.

What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame.

This week has been unreal. As those who follow me on Twitter @TroyHermo know, we have been on fire. After our bankroll-depleting Clayton Kershaw loss last NRFI Night in America, I was devastated. But rebounding from setbacks has been a big part of my life. So I hit the stats even harder and went on a 14-4 NRFI run. I'm 20-10 on the season and ready for NRFI Night in America. What a card to dig through. Lots of investment opportunities for NRFI nation.

We are the most vibey sports betting nation on the planet. Betting NRFIs is the most patriotic thing you can do. It's America's bet on America's game, light juice, little sweat, we cash, no more waiting around for long baseball games. It's 20 minutes. Every pitch matters. Every at-bat is crucial. It's the perfect bet.

And don't forget that every Tuesday I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.

   

NRFI of the Week: The Hermo Hammer Lock

5-Unit Play: Cleveland (Shane Bieber) at Chicago White Sox (Lucas Giolito) -162

Cy Biebs had a 0.75 first-inning ERA in 2020 and has a 3.41 lifetime first-inning ERA. In eight matchups against the White Sox, he is 6-2 NRFI-wise. NRFI nation loves that.

Bieber had a rough start to 2021, giving up two first-inning runs at the Detroit Tigers on Opening Day. Ouch. He came back strong in his second start, looking like the old Cy Biebs, and it gives me full confidence in this one.

Giolito's stats are rough. He has a 5.86 career first-inning ERA. His 6.00 first-inning ERA in 2020 is shocking considering how dominant he was. This year in two starts he is perfect in the first inning with five strikeouts and looks like the ace he was last year. In seven career starts against Cleveland, Giolito sports a 6-1 NRFI record.

   

4-Unit Play: Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks) at Milwaukee Brewers (Brandon Woodruff) -118

The Scoop

• Hendricks had a 1.50 first-inning ERA in 2020.
• Hendricks has an 18-6 NRFI record versus the Brewers.
• Woodruff's first-inning ERAs: 2.76 career, 0.69 in 2020, 0.00 in two 2021 starts. Unstoppable and lockable.

   

2-Unit Play: Washington Nationals (Stephen Strasburg) at St. Louis Cardinals (Jack Flaherty) -117

The Scoop

• Strasburg has a 3.98 career first-inning ERA.
• Strasburg threw six shutout innings in his 2021 debut.
• Flaherty is a NRFI nation fan favorite with a 2.92 career first-inning ERA.
• Flaherty has a 1-1 NRFI record in 2021, but expect him to get things turned around in his first home start.

   

1-Unit Play: New York Yankees (Jameson Taillon) at Toronto Blue Jays (Hyun Jin Ryu) -106

The Scoop

• Taillon has a 4.01 career first-inning ERA, but this year in one start he is perfect.
• Ryu in five starts against the Yanks has a 4-1 NRFI record.
• Ryu's first-inning ERAs: 3.88 career, 2.25 in 2020, 0.00 in two 2021 starts.

Those stat lines are what every NRFI bettor loves to see.

NRFI Night in America.
America's bet, for America's game.
Six outs. No runs. Cash it.
NRFI nation's time is now.

   

Follow me on Twitter @TroyHermo and in the B/R app Betting community section every day for my NRFI locks.

2021 NRFI record: 20-10
2021 Hermo Hammer Lock record: 1-1

The Washington Nationals are opening a sportsbook at Nationals Park for the 2021 season. 

The team announced Monday a multiyear deal with BetMGM that includes the addition of a sportsbook at their home stadium, as well as a mobile app for fans to place bets while inside the stadium.

We're excited to announce @BetMGM as our Official Sports Betting Partner!#NATITUDE pic.twitter.com/r3V8vHp1xp

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) January 11, 2021

According to the Washington Post's Scott Allen, BetMGM will have betting windows and kiosks to place wagers at the stadium. Per the team's release, the sportsbook won't be accessible to fans inside the ballpark. Those in attendance and around Nationals Park will have the option of betting through BetMGM's app.

The partnership also includes branding opportunities for BetMGM in the stadium and on social media.

This will be the first such sportsbook at an MLB stadium, though Allen noted Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. already houses one for William Hill.

MLB struck a deal with MGM Resorts International in November 2018, breaking down the wall between the sport and legalized sports gambling. The Detroit Tigers were the first team to capitalize on the development last July after agreeing to a deal with PointsBet.

A federal lawsuit filed by daily fantasy sports bettors against the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox for stealing signs during games has been dismissed, per The Athletic's Daniel Wallach. 

Federal Judge Jed Rakoff issued the ruling on Friday, saying the connection between the alleged harm caused and conduct is "too attenuated":

#BREAKING: Federal judge dismisses with prejudice ‘sign-stealing’ scandal lawsuit brought by daily fantasy sports players against Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros and MLB. In 32-page ruling, Judge Rakoff says connection between alleged harm and conduct is “too attenuated.” pic.twitter.com/bb7Km0CFev

— . (@PrograsiveXPlus) April 3, 2020

Per Sports Illustrated's Michael McCann, Kristopher Olson, a DraftKings contestant, filed the 52-page complaint against the Astros, Red Sox and MLB linking the cheating scandal involving both teams to consumer rights. 

"Olson argues that MLB, the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox engaged in unlawful business practices at the expense of himself and other daily fantasy sports contestants," McCann wrote.

McCann also noted that Olson was among more than 100 people involved in the class-action lawsuit seeking a collective $5 million in monetary damages. 

Former Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Mike Bolsinger filed a civil lawsuit against the Astros in February, requesting they forfeit the $31 million in playoff bonuses from their run to the World Series. The right-hander hasn't pitched in an MLB game since allowing four runs in 0.1 innings on Aug. 4, 2017. 

Astros season-ticket holder Adam Wallach also filed a civil lawsuit in February for "deceptively overcharging" fans, alleging the organization "knowingly and surreptitiously engaged in a sign-stealing scheme" and "secretly put a deficient product on the field" for three seasons starting in 2017. 

MLB fined the Astros organization $5 million and suspended manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow for the entire 2020 season; Astros owner Jim Crane subsequently fired Hinch and Luhnow. 

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred told SportsCenter on March 25 that the investigation into the Red Sox is complete, but there has "been a delay in terms of producing a written report, just because I, frankly, have not had time to turn to it with the other issues."

Manfred noted he will have a report on the Red Sox out before MLB resumes play. The 2020 season has been postponed because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. 

On-field retaliation toward the Houston Astros feels inevitable following their sign-stealing scheme, so much so it's now commanding its own betting line. 

Alex Bregman (+350; bet $100 to win $350) is the odds-on favorite to be hit by a pitch first, and he's followed by Jose Altuve (+400), Carlos Correa (+400) and George Springer (+450), per SuperBookUSA:

This is getting wild ☠️ pic.twitter.com/NU8dvNJRzj

— br_betting (@br_betting) February 19, 2020

Upon completing its investigation, MLB confirmed the Astros utilized a replay room to illegally steal signs from opposing teams during the 2017 season. Houston defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series that year.

The sense of injustice throughout the league has been heightened by what many players view as a light punishment from MLB officials.

The Athletic's Evan Drellich reported MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred declined to suspend any Astros players because he expected any ban would be overturned on appeal. Manfred also explained to ESPN's Karl Ravech he was worried what kind of precedent he would've set by stripping the Astros of their 2017 title.

That has led to multiple players speaking openly about potentially meting out their own form of punishment when facing Houston this season, leaving new Astros manager Dusty Baker concerned about possible retaliation and what the league might do to deter it:

Dusty Baker is concerned about “premeditated retaliation” against the Astros. He wants league to step in. pic.twitter.com/GSFaHJhX9d

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) February 15, 2020

Houston begins its spring training slate Saturday against the Washington Nationals, and Opening Day is March 26 against the Los Angeles Angels.

The Los Angeles Dodgers were already a top contender for the World Series, but adding Mookie Betts and David Price has given the team an even better chance at taking home a championship. 

The Dodgers acquired the two All-Stars from the Boston Red Sox Tuesday in a three-team deal, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.

The move gave Los Angeles two of the best all-around players in the game between Betts and Cody Bellinger, while also adding another proven arm to the rotation alongside Clayton Kershaw. Unsurprisingly, it led to a significant shift in title odds:

Will Mookie bring a World Series crown to LA? 👀 pic.twitter.com/0FpYIWSHfR

— br_betting (@br_betting) February 5, 2020

After winning 106 games last season, the squad is primed to finally get over the hump to win a championship.

Still, the team isn't the odds-on favorite entering 2020, with the New York Yankees sitting at +350 ($100 bet wins $350) to win it all, per Caesars (via B/R Betting).

Dodgers or Yankees? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/w2DI33ieW9

— br_betting (@br_betting) February 5, 2020

The Yankees went 103-59 last season despite being devastated by injuries. With key players like Luis Severino, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton back at full strength, the team should be even better this season, especially after adding Gerrit Cole at the top of the rotation.

The reigning champion Washington Nationals aren't quite as high on the list as you might expect at 18-1. While the loss of Anthony Rendon will hurt, the squad showed last year why it shouldn't be counted out.

At 25-1, the Boston Red Sox have fallen a bit without Betts but remain talented enough to compete with nearly anyone in baseball.

Here is a full look at the odds with less than two months until the start of the season.

       

Full Odds to Win 2020 World Series (via Caesars)

• Arizona Diamondbacks: 30-1
• Atlanta Braves: 14-1
• Baltimore Orioles: 1,000-1
• Boston Red Sox: 25-1
• Chicago Cubs: 18-1
• Chicago White Sox: 15-1
• Cincinnati Reds: 22-1
• Cleveland Indians: 35-1
• Colorado Rockies: 75-1
• Detroit Tigers: 1,000-1
• Houston Astros: 10-1
• Kansas City Royals: 250-1
• Los Angeles Angels: 20-1
• Los Angeles Dodgers: 4-1
• Miami Marlins: 1,000-1
• Milwaukee Brewers: 45-1
• Minnesota Twins: 18-1
• New York Mets: 15-1
• New York Yankees: 7-2
• Oakland Athletics: 20-1
• Philadelphia Phillies: 24-1
• Pittsburgh Pirates: 250-1
• St. Louis Cardinals: 12-1
• San Diego Padres: 22-1
• San Francisco Giants: 100-1
• Seattle Mariners: 250-1
• Tampa Bay Rays: 30-1
• Texas Rangers: 40-1
• Toronto Blue Jays: 150-1
• Washington Nationals: 18-1

The buzz probably hasn't worn off yet for the Washington Nationals and their fans after the team won its first World Series ever on Wednesday night, but the oddsmakers have already begun tallying the favorites for next season. 

Not shockingly, this year's runners-up, the Houston Astros, come in with the top odds at 4-1, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers (5-1), New York Yankees (5-1), Atlanta Braves (10-1), Boston Red Sox (10-1), Chicago Cubs (14-1), Nationals (14-1) and Philadelphia Phillies (16-1), per Caesars. 

Coming in at the bottom of the future odds for next season at 1000-1 include the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins and Kansas City Royals.

It isn't terribly surprising that the Astros would top the odds. They topped Major League Baseball with a 107-55 record this past season, led by an impressive core of Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. 

That collection of talent led one of baseball's best offenses. The Astros were third in the Majors in runs (920), third in homers (288), first in batting average (.274) and first in OPS (.848), and all of the above players will be back next season, barring trades. 

Starting pitchers Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are under contract for next season as well.

The real threat to Houston returning to the postseason for the fifth time in six years—and attempting to win their second title since 2017—may hinge on whether they can retain starting pitcher Gerrit Cole, the crown jewel in this offseason's free agency.

With Houston, Cole has gone 35-10 with a 2.68 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 602 strikeouts in 412.2 innings (65 starts) over the past two regular seasons. If he leaves, he'll be borderline impossible to replace for the Astros.

As for the defending champions, their odds may seem a little low. Oddsmakers may be factoring in Washington's incredibly hot streak to end the season, however. Keep in mind two factors—the Nationals were just 47-42 before the All-Star Break before catching fire, going 46-27 the rest of the way.

And much of their postseason success hinged on the otherworldly pitching performances of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The Nats were perfect in games started by that duo in the postseason. That's right—perfect:

The Nationals defeat the Astros 6-2 in Game 7 to win their 1st World Series in franchise history.

Washington was 10-0 in games started by Max Scherzer & Stephen Strasburg during the playoffs, the best team record in games started by any duo in a single postseason in MLB history. pic.twitter.com/Bmja8c422q

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 31, 2019

None of this is to take away from the accomplishments of the Nats, or to suggest their title was flukey. But their lower odds suggest that bookmakers may be looking at this title as the case of a team that get red hot at the perfect moment behind a pair of aces that were excellent in the postseason, rather than a more sustainable formula for success going forward.

But nobody pegged the Nats to win the title this year, either. They'll surely embrace the underdog role again if it's cast on them.

Mattress Mack is hoping the hometown Houston Astros come through for him in a big way. 

ESPN's David Purdum reported in late September that Gallery Furniture owner Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale was running a promotion at his stores that would refund purchases of mattresses costing $3,000 or more if the Astros won the 2019 World Series.

As Houston won an MLB-best 107 games during the regular season, business was booming for McIngvale—which put potentially puts him on the hook for a hefty bill. He has, however, decided to try to protect himself with sizable wagers.

Purdum previously reported that Mattress Mack was looking to make approximately $10 million worth of bets on the Astros in order to protect himself from a massive loss. According to The Action Network's Darren Rovell, McIngvale has already placed $3.5 million on Houston.

On Thursday, he plans on placing another $1.5 million on the Astros at +220 odds (bet $100 to win $220).

.@MattressMack ain’t done 🚨🚨🚨

He's betting another $1.5 million on the Astros to win the World Series tomorrow. Will bring him to a total of $5 million on Houston winning it all.

(via @darrenrovell) pic.twitter.com/wdWsKwxlHB

— br_betting (@br_betting) October 2, 2019

Should the Astros be the last team standing, the bets would reportedly bring in approximately $11 million, per Rovell.

"My liability is a little bit north of $15 million," Mattress Mack told Rovell. "So I still have other bets to place. The World Series is a month from now so we’ll look at numbers after we know the Astros' next opponent."

McIngvale also noted that his stores' annual revenue ranges from $150 million to $200 million, per Rovell.

Houston enters the postseason as one of the favorites, thanks to a star-studded rotation that features the likes of 2019 MLB wins leader Justin Verlander (who threw a no-hitter last month), 2019 MLB strikeout leader Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke (who took a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his final regular-season start). Verlander (21) and Cole (20) each topped the 20-win plateau and are expected to finish 1-2, in some order, in AL Cy Young voting.

Houston's ALDS opponent has yet to be determined. The Astros will face the winner of Wednesday night's AL Wild Card Game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland Athletics.

After strong starts to the season, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are listed as co-favorites in the latest odds to win the 2019 World Series at 5-1:

Who’s the best bet to win it all? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/P8fdfpoUuY

— br_betting (@br_betting) May 6, 2019

Each team came into the year with high expectations after deep runs in the playoffs last year and have continued to play well. The Dodgers entered Monday with the most wins in baseball at 22-14, while the Astros have also played well at 20-14. 

Considering Los Angeles has reached the World Series in each of the past two years and Houston won it all two years ago, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if either brings home the trophy in October.

On the other hand, the odds don't all reflect the early results from the 2019 season.

The Tampa Bay Rays currently have the best winning percentage in the league at .636 with a 21-12 record, but their 12-1 odds to win a title are tied for just sixth best.

They remain behind the Boston Red Sox (10-1), which are just 17-18 to begin the year and five games back in the same division.

Oddsmakers are clearly banking on the defending champions to turn things around after a slow start and to once again contend for a title. It's hard to believe players like Chris Sale (1-5 with a 5.25 ERA) and Rick Porcello (2-3 with a 5.11 ERA) will struggle this much all year long.

The New York Yankees are also highly thought of with 6-1 odds to win it all. The team is a respectable 19-14 despite minimal or no contributions from injured stars like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Luis Severino.

If those players can get healthy, the Yankees could be dangerous in the second half of the season.

One thing everyone can agree on is that the Miami Marlins are deservedly a long shot to win it all (2,000-1 odds) after their 9-24 start to 2019.