MLB Odds & Betting

A little over two weeks into the 2019 MLB regular season, the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are co-favorites to win the World Series. 

Neither the Astros nor the Dodgers lead their respective division, but they're each +600 (bet $100 to win $600) to be the last team standing this year. The New York Yankees (+650) and Boston Red Sox (+700) follow closely behind.

The opinion in Vegas generally tracks with forecasts elsewhere. On Baseball Prospectus, the Astros own the highest World Series title odds (17.7 percent) and the Dodgers are second (13.3 percent). Houston is the top team on FanGraphs (21.7 percent) as well, with Los Angeles in third (14.7 percent).

The Astros are riding a nine-game winning streak and swept the red-hot Seattle Mariners in Seattle over the weekend.

The Dodgers are trending in the opposite direction. They defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 7-1 on Sunday to snap a six-game losing streak. Clayton Kershaw is making his 2019 debut Monday night against the Cincinnati Reds, which should provide a boost.

Bettors clearly remain confident in the Dodgers over the long term despite their shaky start, and the same is true of the Yankees. But one has to wonder whether New York falls down the pecking order this time next week.

Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, Luis Severino, Dellin Betances and Troy Tulowitzki are all on the injured list. Betances is out for at least six weeks, while Severino won't throw a ball whatsoever for at least six weeks.

At full strength, the Yankees have one of MLB's best rosters. But they likely won't be able to cope with that number of injuries to key players.

Bryce Harper is going to put on a show for Philadelphia Phillies fans if Las Vegas is to be believed. 

Caesars shared the latest odds for Major League Baseball's primary individual awards for the 2019 season, and Harper checks in as the favorite to land the National League MVP at +600 (bet $100 to win $600).

Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout is the favorite to win the American League MVP at +125, Boston Red Sox pitcher Chris Sale is favored to win the AL Cy Young at +250, and Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer and New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom are favored to win the NL Cy Young at +300.

Trout is just 27 years old but is already well on his way to becoming one of the best players in baseball history. The seven-time All-Star and six-time Silver Slugger has two MVPs on his resume and does everything with highlight-reel grabs in center, a batting average better than .300 in each of the last three seasons and at least 27 home runs in six straight years.

He posted 39 long balls and 24 stolen bases in 2018.

Harper also has an MVP on his resume (2015) and could see an increase in production based on the protection around him in the Phillies’ lineup. He led the league with 130 walks in 2018 but will have new Philadelphia additions in Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and J.T. Realmuto around him in the order.

That could lead to more pitches to hit and MVP-level production for the former Nationals outfielder.

As for Sale, a Cy Young is about the only thing missing in his career. He helped the Red Sox win the World Series last year and is a seven-time All-Star but continues to just miss on the highest individual award for pitchers.

He finished in the top six in voting seven different times.

The NL Cy Young figures to be the tightest race given these odds after deGrom held off Scherzer last year. The Mets ace won the award with a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 269 strikeouts, while the Nationals ace finished in second with a 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 300 strikeouts.

Fortunately for Scherzer, he has three Cy Youngs already before just missing last year.

If the San Diego Padres finalize their reported deal with Manny Machado, they figure to be a bigger factor in the National League West in 2019. 

Per ESPN's Doug Kezirian, Westgate SuperBook has the Machado signing increasing San Diego's World Series odds from 80-1 to 50-1. Meanwhile, its over-under win total jumps from 76.5 to 79.5.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported on Tuesday that Machado and the Padres have come to an agreement on a 10-year, $300 million contract, the largest free-agent deal in North American sports history. Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown added that the deal will include an opt-out after five years.

After news of an agreement broke, though, San Diego executive chairman Ron Fowler told The Athletic's Dennis Lin that a deal had yet to be finalized and that the two sides are "continuing discussions."

It may be too early for Padres fans to officially celebrate, but all signs point to a deal getting done. And what a boost it'd be for San Diego.

Machado is coming off a season in which he earned his fourth career All-Star selection, hitting .297/.367/.538 with 37 home runs, 35 doubles, three triples and 107 RBI in 162 games between the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Dodgers last year. A midseason deal to L.A. last year familiarized him with the N.L. West, as he hit .273/.338/.487 with 13 home runs, 14 doubles and 42 RBI in 66 games for the Dodgers.

He may have just four career appearances at Petco Park (8-for-18, .444 average), but his track record speaks for itself.

San Diego is a team in need of an offensive boost. Last year, the Padres ranked 28th in both average and runs scored while finishing 24th in home runs. Those are all areas in which Machado's bat should provide help.

The Padres are currently in the midst of a 12-year playoff drought. They have not posted a winning record since 2010 and have finished no higher than fourth in the N.L. West since 2014. Signing Machado may not solve all of their problems, but it seems to have increased their odds of being competitive this season.