The big-spending Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear betting favorite to win the 2022 World Series ahead of Opening Day on Thursday.
L.A. owns a $277.1 million payroll, which is $24 million than any other MLB team and more than double the league average ($134.5 million). That alone ensures it's a championship-or-bust season for Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw and Co.
Here's a look at some of the other top contenders based on the odds at Caesars Sportsbook (via ESPN's David Purdum):
All the remaining clubs have odds of 20-1 or higher to open the campaign.
The Dodgers already featured perhaps the most complete roster in baseball when the lockout ended in March, but that didn't stop them from adding more star power.
They signed Freeman, who helped lead the Braves to last season's World Series title, to a six-year, $162 million contract in free agency and then completed a blockbuster trade to acquire eight-time All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel from the White Sox.
Given the Dodgers won 106 games last season and added one of MLB's best players over the past decade to their lineup, it'd be impossible to consider anyone else the favorite.
That said, it's a bit surprising to see the reigning champion Braves with odds more than double L.A.'s.
Atlanta won the title without the electric Ronald Acuna Jr., who suffered a torn ACL in July and is expected to return in early May, and was able to acquire Matt Olson to replace Freeman at first base.
The Braves also get Marcell Ozuna back from suspension and re-signed Eddie Rosario, who delivered several clutch hits during last year's playoff run.
Add in a possible midseason return from Mike Soroka (Achilles) to bolster the starting rotation, and a title defense isn't out of the question.
While L.A. and Atlanta seem like the class of the National League, the American League carries a far more wide-open feel into the new season.
The extra playoff spot—the are now six berths in each league for the three division winners and three wild cards—should benefit the teams in the AL East, which figures to see a tight four-club race between the Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays and Boston Red Sox.
Chicago and Houston are also threats for the pennant, but one sleeper to watch is the Minnesota Twins, who own 50-1 World Series odds.
The Twins started slow last season, but they played above .500 (29-27) from the beginning of August and then made several key additions during the offseason.
That group of arrivals was headlined by Carlos Correa and also included Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Sonny Gray and Dylan Bundy. They also just added starter Chris Paddack in a trade with the San Diego Padres on Thursday.
If the dynamic but oft-injured Byron Buxton can put together a healthy season atop Minnesota's order, the team could emerge as a contender.
The MLB season is scheduled to get underway Thursday at 2:20 p.m. ET when the Brewers visit the Chicago Cubs.
The 2021 Major League Baseball postseason began with a bang on Tuesday, as the Boston Red Sox sent the New York Yankees home with an impressive 6-2 victory in the American League Wild Card Game.
On Wednesday, the National League take center stage when the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers host the St. Louis Cardinals with a spot in the divisional series on the line.
With three of the four divisional-round matchups set, here's how things stand in the MLB playoffs right now.
2021 MLB Division Series Matchups (Best-of-5)
American League: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
American League: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros
National League: St. Louis Cardinals/Los Angeles Dodgers winner vs. San Francisco Giants
National League: Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
World Series Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers (+390; bet $100 to win $390)
Houston Astros (+440)
Tampa Bay Rays (+500)
San Francisco Giants (+550)
Chicago White Sox (+700)
Boston Red Sox (+850)
Milwaukee Brewers (+900)
Atlanta Braves (+1200)
St. Louis Cardinals (+2000)
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Key Storyline: Dodgers Depth
One of the biggest reasons the Los Angeles Dodgers have gone 255-129 over the past three seasons is their roster depth. No team in MLB has been better at accumulating more talent than the defending World Series champions.
Coming into this postseason, though, that depth is going to be tested. Clayton Kershaw and Max Muncy are both dealing with arm injuries.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has already said Kershaw is unlikely to pitch in the postseason.
While this is a significant blow to Los Angeles' pitching staff, the team has already gotten accustomed to playing without the three-time Cy Young winner. He missed more than two months during the regular season with forearm inflammation.
The Dodgers are still stacked in the rotation with Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias in the top three spots. Scherzer, who has a 1.98 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 68.1 innings since being acquired on July 30, will start against the Cardinals on Wednesday night.
Muncy dislocated his elbow in Sunday's regular-season finale. The first baseman hasn't been ruled out for the playoffs, but Roberts told reporters there's a "glimmer of hope" he could return later if they continue to advance.
The Muncy injury is probably more significant than Kershaw's because it could force Cody Bellinger into a prominent role. The 2019 NL MVP was the second-worst hitter in terms of MLB wOBA this season with a minimum of 350 plate appearances.
One thing that could help to ease the pain of Muncy's absence is if Mookie Betts can return to his usual form. The five-time All-Star had a down season by his standards with an .854 OPS and 23 homers in 122 games.
The Dodgers will still be running out a lineup with Will Smith, A.J. Pollock, Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Corey Seager. That group is capable of scoring runs in bunches, but the loss of Muncy, Bellinger's season-long struggles and Betts' down season gives them a smaller margin of error in their quest to repeat.
Team to Watch: Milwaukee Brewers
It was easy to be overshadowed in the NL this season with the Dodgers and Giants seemingly unable to lose down the stretch in their battle to win the West Division, but the Milwaukee Brewers have the potential to be a postseason giant this October.
The Brewers are the only team in MLB that can match Los Angeles' top three starting pitchers. Corbin Burnes is a front-runner for the NL Cy Young after a dominant regular season.
Brandon Woodruff, who will start Game 2 against the Atlanta Braves, had a 2.56 ERA and 211 strikeouts in 179.1 innings. Freddy Peralta took a massive leap forward in his fourth MLB season with a 2.81 ERA and 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings in 28 appearances.
The Brewers will need that rotation to carry them because the lineup is a potential issue in the postseason. Only four of their eight regular position players posted above-average OPS+ totals during the regular season.
While Bellinger was the second-worst hitter in MLB according to wOBA, Jackie Bradley Jr. managed to be even worse with a .224 mark that included a .163/.236/.261 slash line and 34 OPS+.
The bullpen also took a huge hit after they clinched the NL Central title on Sept. 26. It was revealed that Devin Williams fractured his right (pitching) hand punching a wall during the celebration in the locker room.
Williams' absence likely puts a lot more pressure on closer Josh Hader, who wasn't asked to pitch more than one inning in any game during the regular season. He has historically been able to get at least four outs when tasked with doing so, but the additional burden in the playoffs could make him vulnerable to a bad outing.
Christian Yelich has been consistently inconsistent in 2021. He had an OPS over .800 in March/April, June and August, but the outfielder also had a sub-.700 OPS in May, July and September. If he can harness the good energy and block out the bad, it will go a long way toward helping the Brewers reach their first World Series since 1982.
Underrated Team: San Francisco Giants
It's very strange to see a team that outlasted the reigning World Series champions in the NL West and led MLB with 107 wins during the regular season to be an underdog, but that's been the story of the San Francisco Giants in 2021.
Five of their regular position players are aged 33 or older. Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani have had decent seasons in the past, but neither seemed likely to anchor one of the best rotations in MLB.
Even Kris Bryant, their big trade-deadline acquisition, didn't play like a superstar in San Francisco. He had a solid .262/.344/.444 slash line with seven homers and 22 RBI in 51 games.
Nothing about the Giants on paper added up to them being a juggernaut, yet here we are. It still seems like there's skepticism about their title chances. They only have the fourth-best World Series odds, per FanDuel.
One drawback for the Giants is they would have to play the Dodgers in the NLDS if Los Angeles beats St. Louis in the Wild Card Game. But San Francisco won their regular-season series 10-9.
The secret to the Giants' success has been great depth in every facet of the game. The rotation had four starters with ERAs between 2.81 and 3.83, a loaded bullpen and a lineup that has 10 players who hit at least 10 homers (11 if you factor in Bryant's time with the Chicago Cubs; he has 25 this year).
The Dodgers, Brewers and Chicago White Sox have bigger names at the top of their starting rotations. The Astros, Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox have lineups that can score runs in bunches.
Nothing about San Francisco's roster is sexy, but all of the pieces fit together so well. After being underestimated all season, the Giants are more than capable of putting a bow on their magical 2021 with a World Series title.
Must be 21+ and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, Colorado or Tennessee. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. See sportsbook.fanduel.com for details.
Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.
What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)
2021 NRFI record: 137-90 (60.3 percent)
2021 YRFI record: 60-58 (50.8 percent)
As posted on Twitter, @TroyHermo
NRFI NATION! I've been on FIRE with first-inning props over the last two weeks, sporting an 11-4 NRFI and 5-3 YRFI record. When the fall breeze is flowing, and pitchers are locked into the race for the playoffs, NRFIs become hot again.
Which brings us to today.
Today may be the best NRFI card all year. I've told you of the magical day where all the NRFIs hit (or at least 75 percent of them). Today could be that day. I have nine games being an NRFI or lean NRFI and my monster Hermo Hammer of the year.
You all know the drill by now. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.
Let's dive right into this loaded card.
5-Unit Massive Hermo Hammer of the Year
San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler) [-115]
The Scoop
Walker "NRFI" Buehler has been an NRFI legend since the moment he came into the league. In 92 career starts, he has a 1.86 first-inning ERA. To put into perspective, greats like Nolan Ryan had a 4.18 first-inning ERA, and Randy Johnson had a 3.22 career first-inning ERA. We are truly witnessing first-inning greatness.
This year is no different—Walker has a 1.74 first-inning ERA and a 25-6 NRFI record. He only faces an average of 3.54 batters in those innings, so most of his losses are on fastball mistakes that went yard. The Padres' spirits are depleted going into this game after being eliminated from playoff contention. Buehler also has a career 1.66 ERA against the Padres, making my confidence in this NRFI of the year even greater.
Yu "Don't got to sweat this one" Darvish is having a great NRFI year:
-23-6 NRFI Record
-3.41 first-inning ERA
-3.96 batters faced average in the first inning.
Not convinced?
His lifetime ERA against the Dodgers is 2.18, and his career ERA at Dodgers Stadium is 3.47. NRFI killers Mookie Betts and Max Muncy have a combined average of .153 (4-for-26).
Weather conditions are expected to be a perfect 65 with a light fall breeze. NRFI of the year. The Hermo Hammer to end all Hermo hammers.
4-Unit Hermo Hammer: Miami Marlins (Trevor Rogers) at New York Mets (Marcus Stroman)
The Scoop
Trevor Rodgers:
-21-3 NRFI record
-1.88 first-inning ERA in 24 starts
-12-1 NRFI record on the road with a 0.69 first-inning ERA.
Marcus Stroman:
-28-4 NRFI record
-1.44 first-inning ERA
-13-2 NRFI record at home with a 1.26 first-inning ERA
The stats speak for themselves on this one. Two First-Team All-NRFI selections this year. Full confidence.
2-Unit Hermo Hammer: Oakland Athletics (Chris Bassitt) at Seattle Mariners (Yusei Kikuchi) [-120]
The Scoop
Bassitt was enjoying one of the best NRFI seasons of his career before the horrific line drive injury on August 17. In his first start back last week, Bassitt once again cashed the NRFI to bring his 2021 NRFI record to 20-6. His first-inning ERA is one of the best in the league at 2.77, and his first-inning ERA of 3.00 is far above average.
Yusei Kikuchi is a home-only NRFI ride type of pitcher. He has a 2.77 first-inning ERA in 13 starts at home compared to 5.06 on the road. He has a 20-9 NRFI record and is still one of my favorite pitchers to ride in the league NRFI-wise. In nine career starts against Oakland, Kikuchi has a 3.19 ERA. What's not to like?
2-Unit Hermo Hammer: Milwaukee Brewers (Brandon Woodruff) at St.Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) [-135]
The Scoop:
Brandon Woodruff is either really on or really off, but when he's on, he can provide some of the least sweaty victories you'll see. He's sporting a 21-9 NRFI record this year with a career ERA of 3.09 against the Cardinals and a 3.86 ERA at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are hot, but if anyone can cool them down (at least for one inning), it's Woodruff. Expect him to have his best stuff tonight.
Adam Wainwright is the Benjamin Button of NRFI pitchers. The 40-year-old is still producing more NRFI wins and a better NRFI ERA than most aces in the league with a 26-5 record and a 2.90 first-inning ERA. He gave up four runs in the first last time out against the Brewers, but at home where he has a 2.00 first-inning ERA, I think he will bounce back. In two starts at home against the Brew Crew at Busch Stadium, he sports a 2-0 NRFI record.
1-Unit Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler) at Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton) [-125]
The Scoop
Zack Wheeler:
27-4 NRFI record in 2021
2.90 first-inning ERA in 2021
3.27 career ERA vs. the Braves
Charlie Morton aka "Uncle NRFI:"
24-7 NRFI record in 2021
2.05 first-inning ERA in 2021
Two seasoned guys that should get the job done and will be pivotal in making this day special with parlays. NL MVP front-runner Bryce Harper scares me, as he's 7-for-17 (.412) lifetime off Uncle Charlie NRFI.
Other NRFI leans
New York Yankees (Jameson Taillon) at Toronto Blue Jays (Hyun Jin Ryu) [+110]
Jameson Taillon has been solid NRFI-wise with a 3.76 first-inning ERA this year. It's his first start since September 6, though, so I don't know what to expect from him. Hyun Jin Ryu can get the job done, but Aaron Judge hits over .300 against left-handers, and the Yankees are dialed in. That's why it's just a lean, but this will be in parlays on this monumental day.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Luke Weaver) at San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb) [-120]
This is purely off instinct, but Luke Weaver has a 2.25 first-inning ERA this year, giving up only one home run in 12 starts in the first inning. Webb is 17-7 NRFI on the year but is coming off two NRFI losses in a row. He's better at home than on the road, so hopefully, that will help this lean cash.
Hermos Corner: It's a Long Way to the Top If You Want to Hit 60 Percent
Like the AC/DC classic, "It's a Long Way to the Top (If You Wanna Rock 'n' Roll)," the same can be said about hitting that illustrious 60 percent win mark at the end of the season.
That's the goal.
Most people who make a living off sports gambling are hitting in that 60-65 percent range. It should be the goal of every capper, but damn is it hard. It takes looking at yourself in the mirror and saying, "Something's not working—we have to change this."
Changing my strategy early on and adapting my stat sheet, "The Hermo Map." into what it is today is why I have reached 60 percent here as the season draws to a close. Don't be afraid to change—last year I put way too much emphasis on the first-inning ERA and even still to this day struggle playing guys with high NRFI ERA, even though they are hitting the NRFI in the 70 percent range of starts.
You need to get out of your way sometimes to start winning again. Remember—it's a marathon, not a sprint, and there was plenty of times I went 0-for-3 on days, but at the end of the season, I'm still profitable.
Believe in yourself. Believe in the plan you make for yourself. Execute the plan. Make money investing in the sports you love. This is our week, the most NRFI loaded card, and I am blessed to go into battle with all of you.
Until next week, research pays, and the stats don't lie. Let's cash some tickets.
Follow along with me on Twitter @TroyHermo for my NRFI/YRFI inspired stat sheet "The Hermo Map."
Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.
What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)
Welp, back-to-back weeks with a hammer loss on the biggest night of the week. Our night. YRFI night in America. Followed the information, and it burnt us severely. I take full responsibility.
I also know, though, that sports betting is a marathon—not a sprint—and you have to take some losses on the chin to enjoy some hot streaks around the corner. I still trust the information more than I trust vibes, and when you get a game like we do today that has the information and vibes? Yessir!
Also, there is a rumor DraftKings will be boosting my selection today, and that has the Twittersphere buzzing about this can't-miss YRFI.
Hermo YRFI of the Week
1-Unit YRFI Play: New York Yankees (Andrew Heaney) at Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton) [+100]
-Andrew Heaney sports a 12-10 NRFI record this year, making him one of the more unpredictable arms in the majors betting-wise. Since putting on a Yankees uniform, he has a 3-1 YRFI record, giving up runs and homers in the first inning.
-Heaney has a well-below average 8.18 first-inning ERA this year, averaging 4.72 batters faced. Those lofty numbers make him a favorite for the YRFI almost every time he takes the bump. Heaney comes into a very unfriendly situation facing the No. 4 team in the league YRFI-wise, with the Braves averaging 0.69 runs a game in the first inning. At Truist Park, it's even higher: second best at 0.88. Almost a whole run!
-Braves bats have been on a tear lately. Here is 2-5 projected in the order last seven days:
Jorge Soler: 7-for-23 (.304) 2 HR
Freddie Freeman: 12-for-26 (.462) 2 HR
Austin Riley: 9-for-25 (.360) 2 HR
Dansby Swanson: 7-for-22 (.318) 0 HR
-Ozzie Albies, who I call "Mr. First Inning," has been struggling of late but is still 29-for-93 (.312) with two home runs this year in the first inning and 108-353 (.306), with 15 homers lifetime in the first inning. If he gets on base, one of these guys hitting over .300 the last seven days should drive him in to cash the YRFI.
-The Yankees are hitting a lot better as of late. Key leadoff hitter for the Yankees, DJ LeMahieu, has a really good history—not only against Charlie Morton (.348 average in 23 at-bats)—but decent numbers in Atlanta 11-for-33 (.333). Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo have the potential to knock him in, but if they can't, Giancarlo Stanton will be waiting in the cleanup spot. The slugger is 9-for-28 (.321) with a homer in his career against Morton.
Hermos Corner
Getting Family and Friends in on the Fun of Your Sports Action
Spouses, boyfriends and girlfriends, relatives and even friends have all likely asked why you are so mad at a sporting event or why that base hit or field goal was so important to you.
They fail to grasp the feeling of the thrill. The thrill of making a wager and having it come through...or the pure agony of defeat. It's the highs and lows we live for that make this hobby so much fun. Why not show them? Even if they are skeptical, there are fun ways to introduce others to sports wagering without them even realizing they are getting in on it.
Idea 1: Sharing Your Action
A possible reason others think you're acting weird could be your overreactions to measly plays. Before the game, explain the bets you have and the reasoning behind each one. It sets the tone and the narrative for the sporting event you're going to watch.
Most family members will be supportive, especially if you start spitting some Hermo Map facts like "Mr. Day Game" Matt Olson prop stats, Ozzie "Mr. First Inning" Albies, umpire Jerry Meals over specials; the list goes on and on.
Hopefully, they will look for it, and when it hits...you look like a genius, and the respect you get is unmatched. If the reaction is negative, especially with your partner, explain an incentive if you win. Olson is hitting .370 during the day, the over 1.5 bases is +145, we hit this we will get drinks after the game.
Now she has skin in the game without even having skin in the game. It's genius, and suddenly they're watching every AB like it's the last one on earth. The prop wins, she's happy, and suddenly, when the A's play during the day, she starts asking, "Do you have something on this?" It's a great feeling to share the knowledge and wins with the people you love.
Idea 2: Family Parlays
Nothing more fun than getting everyone together to come to a consensus on a parlay for the day. Holiday NBA parlays or an NFL Thanksgiving parlays are some of my favorites. Family and/or friend constructed parlays give EVERYONE in the house something to root for. Even the kids in the house who have no idea what's going on catch on. Get chants going, get loud and build long-lasting memories with the family through sports gambling.
Idea 3: Family Prop Nights
Whether it's a birthday or even just a BBQ, find a game that's going to be on the slate and print off prop sheets for it. Have everyone put in $20 and choose nine props, and whoever hits the most props wins the pool. The same would work in an office setting. Suddenly that game is everything to everyone.
Every pitch matters. Every catch and reception count. Everyone is rooting for something, making it way more fun. I've seen so many people get into this hobby because of office or family pools for the Super Bowl.
"Wait, these things actually exist?" Yes, they do, brother, and they are awesome.
Idea 4: The Significant Other Play of the Day or Parlay
Similar to the family parlay, this can be done frequently with your partner. Give them a dollar and have them choose 5-7 games blind. It gives them some skin in the game with the reward that they get a new purse, tools, something of value to them if it comes in. You can even tee them up with 10 games you like and have them choose from the list.
Just know I understand. My wife thankfully likes baseball but is not a big fan of sports otherwise. I appreciate it when she comes into my world for a bit, but I also understand that gambling isn't for everyone, and nobody should be forced into it.
Exposing them via the Four Ideas to see if they enjoy is the fun part and getting them to understand, "OK, I see why you like this."
In the end, sports gamblers control their own destiny—unlike with other forms of gambling. We have the stats and the information in front of us, we are not pushing a button. People need to know there are better ways to get that dopamine, and one of them is playing the sports we love and watch every day.
The bigger the betting scene gets, the bigger the revenue for the sports leagues will be. This industry will be ever-growing, and there will come a time when your friend wants in.
I hope these ideas help you share our wonderful hobby of sports investing with your friends and family. Start with small games and then introduce them to the book. Together we can grow sports investing to mainstream investing.
Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.
What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning" in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)
What a bad week for the YRFI and the Hermo map. Almost felt like the NRFI was back for a second. In many of those matchups, I lost miserably, and the YRSI (yes-run second inning) came through. That's why sports gambling is so tough. It can look so good on paper, you will miss it by a swing, and it cashes with ease the next inning.
That's why laying juice is so rough on big YRFI favorites. Speaking of juice, at the bottom of the column I go into "When the juice is on the loose" and explain when playing volatile prop bets at high juice just isn't worth it and the percentages you would have to hit to profit long-term. The math will surprise you. Playing props with below -150 juice is the way to go. Props at -220 or above—they are just not a long-term investment you want to make.
With today's card, I found one juicy YRFI for everyone that has the stats and the ballpark to back it up. Buckle up because we're jumping back on the Big Red YRFI Machine.
And don't forget, whether it's YRFI or NRFI lines, you already know this is the spot to check out for the best analysis.
Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every YRFI and NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.
Hermo Lock of the Week: The Big Red YRFI Machine
2-Unit YRFI Hammer: Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks) at Cincinnati Reds (Vladimir Gutierrez) [-125]
Kyle Hendricks has had a rough time in the first inning this year. Despite sporting a 17-7 NRFI record for the season, he has a 7.50 first-inning ERA and averages 4.6 batters faced in the first inning. Meaning there is always danger when Hendricks is starting. To make the YRFI even juicer: Hendricks struggles at Great American Ballpark with a 6-5 NRFI record and 6.16 ERA in his career. Hitters who see Hendricks well in the Reds lineup:
No Jesse Winker? No problem.
And bettors may be surprised if the Cubs cash this bet before the Reds step to the plate.
But Rafael Ortega is 11-for-21 (.524) in the first inning this year for the depleted Cubs. Frank Schwindel has been hitting well, and Patrick Wisdom and Matt Duffy are threats to hit rookie Vladimir Gutierrez, who is 7-7 NRFI-wise this year with a 7.07 first-inning ERA. This is a YRFI that might sneak under everyone's radar with "Da Wink" on the injured list, but I think the Reds are still in a great position to cash in the homer-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark.
Leans
YRFI: Atlanta Braves (Huascar Ynoa) at Miami Marlins (Sandy Alcantara) [+105]
"Mr. First Inning" Ozzie Albies is 7-for-18 (.389) off Alcantara, and if he gets on base it's usually trouble for keeping the Braves off the board in the first frame.
The Braves are the No. 3 YRFI team in MLB.
Why is this only a lean? Alcantara has not allowed a first-inning run in six of his last seven starts.
YRFI: Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes) at St. Louis Cardinals (Adam Wainwright) [+115]
"Beware of the Birds" special. The Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt is 6-for-13 (.462) versus Burnes, and the Cards have been hot, cashing YRFIs to the tune of 6-3 in their last nine games.
It won't be easy against the Cy Young candidate Burnes, who has allowed a first-inning run just three times in his last 11 outings.
Hermo's Corner
When the Juice Is Too Much to Swallow, Just Say No and Focus on Value
Juice. It's delicious in beverage form and an absolute pain in the butt in a sports betting form.
For newbies: Juice is what the sportsbook charges you for that bet. The bigger the favorite and more action a wager gets on it, the more the sportsbook is going to juice it. It looks like "-120" next to your bet. For a $10 bet, that means laying $12 to win $10, so the book is charging $2 in "juice."
The higher the juice, the higher the risk and payout for the book. When playing especially volatile prop bets, it's best to stay away from anything remotely close to -150 and above. Here's why: It takes a ridiculous percentage to be profitable at the end of the year.
Juice and Percentages Needed to Be Profitable:
Remember when books were juicing NRFIs at -175? You would have to hit close to 70 percent of your games to profit long-term on that. So, when thinking about placing any bet, but especially props such as YRFIs, NRFIs and player props, look for the juice-friendly options. If it's too high and you have any doubts, then stay away. Your wallet and bankroll will thank me.
Also to the books: Let's keep it fair. A 50-50 prop should never be above -135, and I will die on this hill with the rest of NRFI nation. That's why I appreciate DraftKings letting me boost YRFIs for the nation week in and week out. No Winks, no problems. That's our mantra this Tuesday.
I'm proud of all of you, and I appreciate the messages to let me know that my column and the maps posted on Twitter have made a difference, not only for your bottom line but the fun you're having with this awesome hobby of ours: sports investing.
Let's have a day.
We want runs, we want hits, we want a perfect YRFI day in America.
Every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI night in America.
What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning" in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI: yes-run first inning.)
How 'bout the column last week? 3-0, and all were all no-doubters. Fifteen minutes easy cash. What first-inning bettors' dreams are made of.
It's been a weird week as the trend of YRFI seemed to stop, and I haven't been able to find a matchup off my "Hermo map" that has popped since Aug. 3.
Luckily for my first-inning warriors, I was able to dig deep on Tuesday's card and find some great selections. As always, make sure to check in on Twitter for updated plays and cards as well as Hermo maps, which are complete stat breakdowns of matchups for your viewing convenience. All free, all on my Twitter.
Who knows what stat you might find in the Hermo map that will push your very own leans into cold, hard locks. Don't let your leans stay leans, and don't ever bet a game blindly.
Hermo Lock of the Week: The Return of Mr. First Inning
2-Unit YRFI Hammer: Cincinnati Reds (Sonny Gray) at Atlanta Braves (Drew Smyly) +100
I always love playing a YRFI when a starter struggles in the first and has bad stats against the hitters in the meat of the lineup.
The Atlanta Braves are sending out Drew Smyly, who has a 11.57 first-inning ERA at Truist Park. Smyly averages 4.42 batters faced in the opening frame, and overall for the year has a below-average 5.68 first-inning ERA, making him a YRFI favorite.
He will be facing a red-hot Cincinnati Reds lineup in the top of the first. Nick Castellanos, who recently returned to the lineup after almost three weeks on the IL, has been very successful against Smyly. Castellanos is 6-for-13 (.462 average) with four doubles.
Leadoff hitter and on-base machine Jonathan India is 2-for-3 lifetime vs. Smyly before Jesse Winker—who went 9-for-19 (.474) last week—steps to the plate, followed by Castellanos. Joey Votto has cooled off on his home run hitting spree but remains a threat to cash the YRFI.
I've called Cincinnati the "Big Red YRFI Machine" this year when its offense is running 100 percent. It's worth noting Smyly barely escaped the Reds in the first inning last time as Votto narrowly missed a homer with two runners on. They are going to cash Tuesday.
If we go to the bottom of the first scoreless, I fully expect the No. 1 scoring team percentage-wise to come through with a run. The Atlanta Braves score a run in the first inning 34.8 percent of the time, per TeamRankings.com. And Sonny Gray has allowed a first-inning run in three of his last four starts.
It's a tough top of the lineup to face with "Mr. First Inning" Ozzie Albies, who is batting 28-for-82 (.341) in the opening frame this year, new addition Jorge "Soler Power" and 2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman, who exited Saturday's game with a respiratory infection and could return Tuesday. Also, Austin Riley has been on a tear of late, going 8-for-26 (.308) last week.
Word on the street is DraftKings might let me boost this one. So be on the lookout for the B/R Betting boost notification and hop on this juicy hammer with me.
1-Unit NRFI: Los Angeles Dodgers (Max Scherzer) at Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola)
I know what you're thinking.
First-ballot NRFI Hall of Famer Max Scherzer has an impressive 2.79 first-inning ERA in 20 starts and averages only 3.65 batters in the opening frame. He's matching up against the Philadelphia Phillies' Aaron Nola, who is always better at home than on the road NRFI-wise. He sports a 6-3 NRFI record at Citizens Bank, with two of those losses coming against the No. 1 and No. 2 YRFI teams in the league, the Braves and Boston Red Sox.
I love the cold offensive stats with some of the bigger bats in the lineup such as J.T. Realmuto, who is 5-for-49. The bat to worry about is the new MVP front-runner, Bryce Harper (3-for-10 vs. Scherzer). Nola also has favorable matchups with Mookie Betts (1-for-7), new Dodger Trea Turner (7-for-38) and Max Muncy (0-for-8).
This gives me full confidence to send this NRFI for the crew.
Hermo's Corner
Why the Best Bet You Can Make Is Sometimes the One You Don't
Finding balance while also enjoying the sports betting we love.
Let's talk about life.
It's wild, it's out of control, and half the time it feels like a blur. Sometimes we can lose sight of the important things—especially when sports gambling is a part of it.
There are so many games, so many opportunities, and in some seasons you can literally bet on an event every hour from noon to 10 p.m. It's easy to get addicted to having action when it's so accessible.
But you should never let your sports betting control you so much that you need action to overshadow your time with your family. Take it from me, who has been battling a rare Stage 4 adrenal cancer the past two-and-a-half years.
You won't remember your losing parlay from today, but you will remember that night out with your partner. You won't remember that you were one strikeout away from Lucas Giolito cashing your K prop bet, but you will remember that dance recital your daughter had.
Take the time to enjoy your life before you regret it. Sports should enhance our lives, not control them. If you find yourself neglecting your family over measly bets, then it's time to get your priorities straight.
And after you do bet, put the phone away. By creating a healthy balance, I guarantee you will not only find more happiness, but will also have more success because you won't find yourself craving action and forcing bets.
Be patient and play when you feel it's right. A healthy, clean gambling conscience is the key to winning. Have an investing mindset, not a gambling one. Never chase and never lose sight of what's important.
Stay blessed, everyone.
As always, research pays and the stats don't lie.
Let's have a great week.
One bettor spent the weekend holding his breath.
FanDuel fielded a 16-leg parlay, originally placed for $100, that incorporated weekend results from MLB, NBA and the French Open. When it finished successfully, the bettor won $393,000.
Of all of the different scenarios, the closest call was likely on Sunday, when Novak Djokovic was down two sets to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the French Open final. He battled back to secure the victory—and help this bettor on his way.
For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.
Must be 21+ and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, Colorado or Tennessee. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. See sportsbook.fanduel.com for details.
Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America, and we are on fire.
What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame.
As posted on Twitter @TroyHermo.
It was an awful week for NRFI nation all across the board—not just my plays. If you tuned in to my Twitter Spaces, you know I was expecting the YRFI to get hotter as the weather got warmer, but I wasn't expecting a complete change in NRFI fortune in May.
Thought we had at least until mid-June before the tides turned on us and we would have to become super selective. But alas, it was a 6-11 week, and it felt like I couldn't hit water falling out of a boat. That's going to happen when you play volatile first-inning props. You have to tighten up, watch out for red flags and believe in yourself. Just because a first-inning star such as Corbin Burnes gave up a run to the St. Louis Cardinals last week doesn't mean he's a no-play for the rest of the year (no matter how much it hurt).
We follow the stats, we follow the info, and if luck and talent beat us, then I can live with that. It's what we do with the losses that makes us different than most cappers. Instead of chasing and pushing games, the focus is more on ranking the value of the card. Finding small stats that can make the biggest differences. Information is power, and I'm finding new stats every day to help me find winners.
I will get NRFI nation out of this slump if it's the last thing I do. One game at a time. One stat at a time. One pitch at a time. My promise to you, NRFI nation, and all the "Hermo Hitters" out there who terrorize the books with my information. They got us last week. I got them this week. Let's go.
You know the drill by now. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.
NRFI Night in America: The Hermo Hammer Play of the Week
2-Unit Play: Houston Astros (Cristian Javier) at Oakland Athletics (Sean Manaea) -118
The Scoop
Cristian Javier
Sean Manaea
1-Unit Play: Milwaukee Brewers (Brandon Woodruff) at Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic) -143
The Scoop
Kris Bubic
YRFI of the Day: The Hermo Meatball Special
2-Unit Play: Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin) at Chicago Cubs (Zach Davies) -130
Patrick Corbin
This is what you love to see when handicapping a potential YRFI.
Zach Davies
To make matters worse for Corbin and Davies, the wind will be blowing out to left field at 14 mph—making Wrigley Field a launching pad.
Hermo's Corner of Gambling Advice
Getting Out of Slumps and Staying the Course
Losing is a part of life.
There's not a person on this planet who has never lost. Even the greats lose. It's how you deal with those losses that makes you who you are. You might lose a game with your partner, you might lose out on that job you really wanted, or in my case, you might go 6-11 in a week.
It's going to happen on a daily basis, but you can't be scared of losing, because losing teaches you the most valuable things in life—and that's the bounce-back. Last year, I went on three losing streaks with NRFIs, and it's all because I was playing too many games and wasn't saying no to obvious red flags.
Losing streaks make you stare in the mirror and say, "You got this." You have the info, you have the power, don't be afraid. Just make sure you lean on the right indicators. I went on to hit six 10-unit Hermo Hammers to end the season because I noticed what was wrong and waited for better matchups.
Example from Monday: I really wanted to play the Washington Nationals' Jon Lester's first start back at Wrigley Field, knowing Lester had a 62-30 NRFI record there. Digging deeper, however, I saw he was only 12-9 in the last two years. And with the uncertain Adbert Alzolay on the mound for the Cubs, I stayed away. Lester allowed a sac fly in the first inning.
Pick and choose your spots. Stay motivated and only play what you feel is the best value. That's all you can ask of yourself. Don't chase; stay the path. Stay with the information. Always look for an angle rather than action, and you will be more successful at getting out of slumps. Even the best stock investors miss, but they are smart and know if they keep their head high and trust their info they will be successful in the long run.
Same here.
Over the season, we will be successful. We will be profitable. We will be 5,000 to 10,000 strong and a nightmare for the books. That's my hammer of the year and my promise to you.
Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America, and we are on fire.
What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame.
As posted on Twitter @TroyHermo.
NRFI nation, our night is finally here! Welcome to NRFI Night in America.
Nothing gets me more stoked than a venti Starbucks iced coffee, a nice sunny day in Las Vegas and a card packed full of NRFIs. It's like the NRFI gods knew Tuesday was our day and set us up with four great NRFI opportunities.
These days I wake up, point at the sky and thank my savior Jacob deGrom for another day of NRFIs. Speaking of deNRFI, we wish him a super speedy recovery from his 10-day injured list stint. Our wallets and my hammer will be ready for his return.
Coming off an 11-3 week, the momentum is starting to build. Every week I am more educated on new stats and figures and by people who provide information to my ever-growing list of ways to handicap first innings.
One of the main factors we have harnessed is the weather. The weather sometimes has the ability to change a game and the fate of NRFI nation with a simple gust of wind blowing out. Wind can also be helpful, such as when the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field.
These small pieces of information can tip you off when you're deciding if a game is hammerable. Nothing is more vibey than having two pitchers you love with great first-inning ERAs, great historical opponents' batting data and a gust coming in to ensure no fluke fly ball will go over the fence.
Here's how it works for those who are unfamiliar with this column. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.
NRFI Night in America: The Hermo Hammer Plays of the Week
2-Unit Hammer Play: Baltimore Orioles (John Means) at New York Mets (Marcus Stroman) -152
The return of John Means "NRFI Business."
After coming a wild pitch away from a perfect game versus the Seattle Mariners, Means is now a focal point in NRFI nation's arsenal of go-to pitchers.
Other Scoops
2-Unit Hammer Play: Chicago Cubs (Adbert Alzolay) at Cleveland (Shane Bieber) -162
The Scoop
Other Plays
1-Unit Play: Los Angeles Angels (Shohei Ohtani) at Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) -108
The Scoop
1-Unit Play: Seattle Mariners (Yusei Kikuchi) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Walker Buehler) -134
The Scoop
Hermo's Corner of Gambling Advice
If you at any time ever feel so down or mad after a loss, then you are investing too much into one game—you need to revaluate your units. Defeats should never deflate you; they should motivate you.
That's the difference between the real winners and losers in this business. The losers dwell on their losses, and the winners know losses are going to come but that what we do with those losses make us who we are.
Bouncing back is part of life, and you should be able to bounce back after Trout destroys you or a first baseman makes an error to kill your bet.
This should be fun, but if it starts affecting you too much, it's time to pause and reevaluate. I myself have gotten lost, mainly in college as a kid with bad unit management and out-of-control parlays. I had no discipline and would play half the card, always thirsting for action with late-night tennis.
While I did hit a 474-1, 10-leg tennis parlay, I lost it all by being reckless. You have to lose sometimes before you stare at yourself in the mirror and say the most important words:
I want to win.
I deserve to win.
I'm going to win.
Say those things to yourself every morning and give yourself that inner confidence needed to place your bets. Always look for an angle. And my biggest piece of advice: Only play what you want to play.
Just because somebody is on a hot run on social media doesn't mean they won't screw up, and if you find a stat or figure you think deserves to be bet against, then do it. It's important to trust your instincts. It's what will keep you the most profitable in the long run.
Remember: Bankroll management is everything. Keep parlays to a minimum. Follow the units, and we will be successful this year.
NRFI Night in America.
Six outs. No runs. Unlimited vibes.
America's game. America's bet. NRFI nation.
