N/A
Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America, and we are on fire.
What's an NRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "no-run first inning," in which you bet there will be zero runs scored in the first frame. (Unless you're betting a YRFI—yes-run first inning.)
As posted on Twitter @TroyHermo
What a bad few weeks it has been for NRFI Nation. Went 1-5 on this column's picks last week. It's been nearly impossible to cap the games now that sticky stuff has been banned. Some pitchers have tailed off, and the confidence of a nation betting on six outs has never been lower (at least not this season).
But...even in the darkest of times, I still believe we can find value on any card. The numbers and my new stat sheet, "The Map" (which can be found at my Twitter) still can find winners even in this market.
Let's dive in with three NRFIs and two YRFIs. It's NRFI Night in America. America's game. America's bet. Six outs, no runs, all glory. The quickest way to a baseball betting payday.
Hermo tip when betting NRFIs: If the first-inning draw has better juice, always take it. You are a smart sports investor, and you don't fall for traps. First-inning draw is essentially a NRFI, and you get more coverage in case it ends 1-1. Better juice, too? It's a no-brainer. Always check. Make the books do their jobs. Take advantage of mistakes.
You all know what to do and where to go by now. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI line can be found on DraftKings.
NRFI Night in America: The Hermo Hammer Plays
2-Unit NRFI Play: Chicago Cubs (Zach Davies) at Milwaukee Brewers (Brandon Woodruff) -121
The Hermo map:
| Zach Davies | Pitcher Stats | Brandon Woodruff | |||
| 5-4 (4.31) | 2021 Record (ERA) | 6-3 (1.89) | |||
| 4.14 (139) | Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 3.34 (62) | |||
| 4.46 | Carrer Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.05 | |||
| 2.25 (12) | 2020 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 0.69 (13) | |||
| 4.58 | 2020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 3.69 | |||
| 7-5 | 2020 NRFI Record | 12-1 | |||
| 3.38 (16) | 2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 4.80 (15) | |||
| 4.12 | 2021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.06 | |||
| 13-3 | 2021 NRFI Record | 11-4 | |||
| 1.13 (8)/5.63 (8) | 2021 Home/Away 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 2.57 (7)/6.75 (8) | |||
| 4.15 (8)/4.50 (8) | 2021 Home/Away ERA (GS) | 2.32 (7)/1.55 (8) | |||
| N/A | ERA vs. Opponent | 3.06 | |||
| N/A | NRFI Record vs. Opponent | 8-1 | |||
| 4.65 | Ballpark ERA | 3.48 | |||
The Scoop
Brandon Woodruff's 4.80 first-inning ERA doesn't tell the whole story. That is inflated by a Coors Field stinker in which he gave up five runs. Happens to the best pitchers. He is 11-4 on the year, including 3-0 versus the Cubs.
Woodruff's numbers against the top five Cubs batters make me like this one even more:
1-Unit NRFI Play: Tampa Bay (Rich Hill) at Washington Nationals (Joe Ross)
The map:
| Rich Hill | Pitcher Stats | Joe Ross | |||
| 6-2 (3.52) | 2021 Record (ERA) | 4-7 (4.12) | |||
| 3.94 (177) | Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 4.18 (71) | |||
| 4.15 | Career Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.24 | |||
| 2.25 (8) | 2020 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | #N/A | |||
| 4.13 | 2020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | #N/A | |||
| 6-2 | 2020 NRFI Record | N/A | |||
| 1.20 (15) | 2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 5.14 (14) | |||
| 3.53 | 2021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.64 | |||
| 13-2 | 2021 NRFI Record | 11-3 | |||
| 1.13 (8)/1.29 (7) | 2021 Home/Away 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 3.60 (5)/6.00 (9) | |||
| 3.50 (8)/3.55 (7) | 2021 Home/Away ERA (GS) | 5.74 (5)/3.21 (9) | |||
| 4.08 | ERA vs. Opponent | N/A | |||
| 3-2 | NRFI Record vs. Opponent | N/A | |||
| 2.53 | Ballpark ERA | 3.60 | |||
| 2-0 | Ballpark NRFI Record | 24-11 | |||
The Rest of the Card
Here are the maps, with the bold parts being the reasoning:
KC-BOS YRFI -141
| Brad Keller | Pitcher Stats | Nick Pivetta | |||
| 6-8 (6.39) | 2021 Record (ERA) | 6-3 (4.00) | |||
| 4.81 (73) | Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 5.93 (88) | |||
| 4.51 | Career Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.52 | |||
| 3.00 (9) | 2020 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 9.00 (2) | |||
| 4.33 | 2020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 6.00 | |||
| 10.13 (16) | 2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 6.00 (15) | |||
| 5.56 | 2021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 5.00 | |||
| 12.38 (8)/7.88 (8) | 2021 Home/Away 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 6.75 (8)/5.14 (7) | |||
| 7.97 (8)/5.05 (8) | 2021 Home/Away ERA (GS) | 4.57 (8)/3.40 (7) | |||
NYM-ATL NRFI +110
| Tylor Megill | Pitcher Stats | Charlie Morton | |||
| 0-0 (4.15) | 2021 Record (ERA) | 7-3 (3.68) | |||
| 0.00 (1) | Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 3.57 (273) | |||
| 4.00 | Career Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.30 | |||
| #N/A | 2020 1st-Inning ERA | 4.00 (9) | |||
| #N/A | 2020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.56 | |||
| 0.00 (1) | 2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 1.23 (15) | |||
| 4.00 | 2021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.20 | |||
| 1-0/N/A | 2021 NRFI Record | 7-2/4-2 | |||
| 4.15 (1)/N/A | 2021 Home/Away ERA (GS) | 3.88 (9)/3.41 (6) | |||
SD-CIN YRFI -155
| Blake Snell | Pitcher Stats | Tony Santillan | |||
| 3-3 (5.29) | 2021 Record (ERA) | 1-1 (3.29) | |||
| 3.69 (123) | Career 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 9.00 (3) | |||
| 4.19 | Career Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.67 | |||
| 0.00 (11) | 2020 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | N/A | |||
| 4.09 | 2020 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | N/A | |||
| 6.14 (15) | 2021 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 9.00 (3) | |||
| 4.20 | 2021 Avg Batters Faced in 1st | 4.66 | |||
| 0.00 (7)/11.74 (8) | 2021 Home/Away 1st-Inning ERA (GS) | 9.00 (2)/9.00 (1) | |||
| 1.43 (7)/10.36 (8) | 2021 Home/Away ERA (GS) | 1.69 (2)/9.00 (1) | |||
Hermo's Corner of Betting Advice
How to have sports action without a negative family and friends reaction. We've all been there. At a cookout, and someone has shamed you for having action on a game. They aren't wrong; there are lots of evils that come with gambling. But done correctly, gambling enhances and takes the sports we love to new heights.
Big moments become even more memorable, and with the right information, we can even make it profitable. It's that last part that's always the issue. Most likely this person had a bad experience or lost money gambling, so you have to show them it's not gambling and that it's more like investing.
Many adults have invested in stocks and understand the research that goes into that. So, talk their language. Give capper percentages, unit-size breakdowns, profits and losses for the week. Show the stats that go behind the picks.
If you have been following the column, two weeks ago we went over having three cappers in your pocket to give you consistently good information. That information is what makes the difference between "degenerate dart Dave" and "informative sports investor David." Don't ever be a DDD.
Best case is to get these doubters in on the action. Slipping into conversation NRFI stats or any stats followed by a prop on an app they can download and play—I've seen it work. Once they get the rush and feel for what we do, they understand.
Just don't go overboard, and always follow the information. If you ever feel guilty playing something, best to reevaluate your units and choices. If I can make my anti-gambling in-laws believe in the map and NRFI Nation, I can make anyone a believer.
America's game. America's bet. Six outs to glory. Research pays, and the stats don't lie. Let's get some W's.
Welcome back to TGIFighting, where we preview the weekend's combat sports action and make wry observations about the relevant MMA news of the day. Ready? Let us proceed.
An Embarrassment of Trash Talk Riches
Trash talk is the oil that lubricates the MMA gears. It's what enables people to follow the sport, rather than simply watch the fights. It's the extra dimension that lends that inimitable pop to a matchup. It's an art as specific as the butterfly guard or the overhand right.
This week, we got a lot of good entries from some of the biggest names in the sport.
For instance, welterweight champ Kamaru Usman (19-1) pledged to put a "187" on someone named Nate Diaz (21-13). Usman is currently committed to a rather low-energy rematch with Colby Covington (16-2), leading Diaz to chide Usman that "you do what you're told to do, like a good champion." Covington or not, that's not an aspersion Usman is likely to forget, especially when it's attached to a golden goose like Diaz.
Elsewhere, middleweight champ Israel Adesanya (21-1) and the man he beat to win the title, Robert Whittaker (23-5), are building heat for their inevitable rematch. Whittaker told Australia's Daily Telegraph (h/t MMA Fighting) that Adesanya is "very touchable" and "not a god"—the audacity!—with Adesanya responding on Twitter, "I may not be a god, but I baptized you." Ouch.
Finally, we have someone who's not usually found on many trash-talking hot lists. Chan Sung Jung, aka the Korean Zombie (17-6), put aside his typical humility to throw shade at Max Holloway (22-6), saying the former featherweight champ "doesn't have punching power." If that helps make a fight between these two, with the winner being well positioned to contend for the strap once Brian Ortega (15-1, 1 NC) and champ Alexander Volkanovski (22-1) have settled their business, then Zombie just did a lot with a few simple words.
But hey, that's what a good piece of trash talk can do for you.
The Best Fights This Weekend Aren't in the UFC
The main card of UFC Fight Night 190, going down Saturday in Las Vegas, features five bouts. In the main event, Cyril Gane (8-0) and Alexander Volkov (33-8) vie to become a heavyweight title contender. With Gane sitting at No. 3 on the official UFC heavyweight rankings and Volkov at No. 5, the winner here will pass the velvet rope and enter the contender picture in a top-heavy division.
No other main card fighter in the event cracks the top 15. You know who might have noticed this little soft spot on the UFC calendar? The Professional Fighters League, for one, and Friday's PFL 6 card is pretty chock full of top-shelf talent and legitimate drama thanks to the promotion's tournament format. The main card airs on ESPN2.
The most transcendent non-UFC fighter today may well be women's lightweight Kayla Harrison (9-0), she of the two Olympic judo gold medals and a victims list that resembles an Andy Warhol painting. Yes, Harrison's strength of schedule may be weaker than you'd want to see, but it still says something that she's been competing against herself for a remarkable length of time. She has been known to cry tears of frustration when she doesn't get a stoppage, or even when the stoppage doesn't come quickly enough.
Harrison is back in the main event Friday, facing a well-traveled veteran in Cindy Dandois (16-6). If she can handle Dandois, her case grows as the only woman outside of Amanda Nunes (21-4) who can stake a claim as the world's best female fighter. Would that a world existed where those two could actually fight.
In the co-main event, you have former UFC champ Anthony Pettis (24-11) facing a dangerous opponent in Raush Manfio (12-3). Pettis is a -200 favorite to win, per DraftKings, but Manfio is a headhunter with seven knockout wins to his name. If Manfio can close the distance and keep Pettis from working in space, or if Pettis falls in love with his "Showtime" moves too early, this could be competitive. And if he can't, you've still got the makings of a highlight-reel contest, especially given that Pettis needs a stoppage win to advance to the next round of this season‘s PFL tournament.
Speaking of which, there’s legitimate drama further down the card, in the form of decorated featherweight Lance Palmer (22-4). You may not have heard of Palmer, but thanks to the two $1 million checks he's cashed as a repeat PFL tournament winner, he has earned a damn sight more money than UFC peers with triple the visibility.
Palmer does not always have the most crowd-friendly of styles, a ground-and-pound approach that sometimes misplaces the pound. But when he's rolling, he's formidable. The four-time Ohio State All-American will try to rebound from a big upset loss to old college wrestling rival Bubba Jenkins (16-4) back in April when he faces Movlid Khaybulaev (16-0, 1 NC). Under the tournament scoring system, Palmer needs a first- or second-round stoppage to stay alive this season. So just a tiny bit of pressure and a big reason to watch and see what unfolds. It's almost like PFL planned it this way.
The truth of the matter is that no other show can match the UFC's deep talent stocks. But if there's ever a weekend where another show can shine, it's this one.
UFC Fight Night 190: Hidden Gems
No need to further beat the dead horse that is this card's suckitude. But it's still the UFC, and as such, all is not lost. Is it worth five hours of your time? Nope. But it might be worth a few minutes.
On the main card, look for an intriguing action fight between featherweights Andre Fili (21-8) and Daniel Pineda (27-14). There's also a potential undercard firecracker between Tim Means (31-12-1, 1 NC) and Nicolas Dalby (19-3-1, 2 NC); this could be your Fight of the Night dark horse. The featured prelim bout is a showcase for two world-class grapplers in jiu-jitsu champion Raoni Barcelos (16-1) and sambo master Timur Valiev (17-2, 1 NC).
The card airs on ESPN+, the Worldwide Leader's subscription streaming service.
So as with any UFC card, there are some decent options. You just have to know where to look. At the same time, there's no reason to limit your MMA viewing to the Octagon. This weekend may demonstrate that more than any we've had in quite a while.
Stone Cold Lead Pipe Lock of the Week
Record to date: 12-4
Welcome back to the haven for conservative bettors. In keeping with the theme this week, let us move outside the UFC. In PFL, Harrison is a massive favorite, but odds of -2000 to win are simply not sporting.
Let's instead move to the Bellator cage, where UFC veteran and mustache advocate Tim Johnson (15-6) faces Valentin Moldavsky (10-1) for the interim heavyweight belt. Moldavsky is a -286 favorite to emerge on top, per DraftKings. Here's guessing Johnson is providing the sizzle in this matchup, while Moldavsky serves as the steak. Lock it in.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).
21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
