Preview/Prediction

How many starting quarterback jobs are up for grabs entering NFL training camps? That's up for debate, but we do know that at least three teams—the Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints and Washington Football Team—haven't publicly stated they've got a starter locked in. 

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers have made declarations about veterans slated to serve as starters, but Andy Dalton, Cam Newton and Jimmy Garoppolo are likely to have rookie first-round picks breathing down their necks in each of those spots. 

With training camps now on the horizon, let's make some predictions regarding each of those six potential or inevitable battles. 

     

Chicago Bears: Andy Dalton vs. Justin Fields

Despite the fact that they traded up to select Justin Fields 11th overall in April's draft, the Bears continue to insist they're rolling with Dalton.

On the surface, that seems ludicrous because, at 33, Dalton is a backup-caliber player with an 84.8 passer rating the last four seasons, and Fields looks ready to rock coming out of Ohio State. But consider a few factors: 

1. The Bears didn't immediately start No. 2 overall selection Mitchell Trubisky in 2017.

2. Matt Nagy's Kansas City Chiefs didn't immediately play No. 10 overall pick Patrick Mahomes that same year. 

3. Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace might figure they can buy themselves more time from an employment standpoint if they slow-play the transition to Fields. 

4. Critically, the Bears open the regular season with a prime-time road game against reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and the fierce Los Angeles Rams.

I don't believe they'll want to throw Fields to those wolves, so they'll likely hold off for early September, let Dalton bomb against the Rams in Week 1 and then finally succumb to the pressure and start Fields in a low-pressure spot in Week 2 at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. 

Winner: Dalton, but not for long

     

Denver Broncos: Teddy Bridgewater vs. Drew Lock

It's possible a trade for Aaron Rodgers or Deshaun Watson could bring a sudden end to this battle, but for now we can only focus on who's on the roster. 

Bridgewater is the safe choice with lots of starting experience and a reputation for making smart decisions, but that's also the boring choice because his ceiling is clearly defined, and he might lack the game-changing ability you want in a starting quarterback. 

Lock is on the other end of the spectrum. He's got the arm talent but hasn't proved to be trustworthy after posting the highest interception rate in the AFC as sophomore in 2020. 

The trade for Bridgewater indicates the front office is losing patience with Lock, but the reality is it's a lot easier to conceal gunslinger-related flaws when the sample size is relatively small and tainted by a lot of snaps against second- and third-teamers during training camp and the preseason. 

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio told the media last month this is a coin flip, but I get the feeling they'll gamble first on Lock's potential by giving him one last shot. 

Winner: Lock, with a short leash

          

New England Patriots: Cam Newton vs. Mac Jones

This one's particularly complicated since we've never seen Bill Belichick with a rookie first-round pick at the quarterback position. Because the Pats appear to be all-in for a Super Bowl run and a rookie quarterback has never won a championship as a starter, you might expect Belichick to take the safer route with the former MVP, especially considering he said in June that Newton is "way ahead of where he was" during the 2020 offseason. 

He also told the media on draft night that "Cam's our quarterback."

However, Newton struggled so much as a passer in 2020 and has been so ineffective and untrustworthy the last few years that it's easy to wonder if he might actually represent the larger risk than the pro-ready Jones coming out of the SEC. For what it's worth, Jeff Howe of The Athletic reported last week that Jones took more first-team reps than Newton at at least one minicamp practice and "was the best QB on the field" in consecutive sessions.

Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer believes the No. 15 overall selection "has done enough in the spring to merit a real competition with Cam Newton in the summer." And I keep thinking that it would be odd for Belichick to throw away a first-round pick in an all-in year on a player who won't make a difference during said season. 

Let's go out on a limb.

Winner: Jones

          

New Orleans Saints: Jameis Winston vs. Taysom Hill

On the surface, you'd think the 2015 No. 1 overall pick and 2019 league passing yardage leader would have the advantage over a gadget player with extremely limited passing experience like Hill in this spot, but Sean Payton has shown us time and again that he loves Hill. 

Hill also put up solid numbers in a short run as a starter in place of an injured Drew Brees in 2020, but the reality is Winston's ceiling is way higher, and he's actually three-and-a-half years younger than Hill.

DraftKings gives him a pretty clear edge in terms of odds (Winston is -175; bet $175 to win $100), and I'm inclined to agree with them for now. Payton would be silly not to at least see if the 2015 Pro Bowler can finally put it all together with more support than he's ever had.

Barring a disastrous August, Winston should get the nod Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers. That said, I'd expect to see plenty of both players throughout the season. 

Winner: Winston

     

San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Trey Lance

The 49ers didn't keep Garoppolo around at a rate of $26.4 million to be a backup, which is one reason the odds are stacked against Lance starting from the get-go in 2021. The 49ers have stated publicly that Jimmy G is the starter, and Lance likely needs that time because he threw just 318 passes in college (none of which came at the FBS level and only 30 came in 2020). 

But I'm really starting to wonder about Lance. 

In May, Touchdown Wire's Mark Schofield wrote that the North Dakota State product "might start for the 49ers sooner than you think." And in June, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports stated that the 21-year-old "will be given every opportunity to rise up the team's depth chart." The early returns have been promising, and it's important to keep in mind that the 49ers can save nearly $25 million by picking Lance and dumping Garoppolo. 

Come September, if they feel they're going to hand it over to Lance in a matter of weeks anyway, it probably makes sense to just make the move immediately and pocket all of that cash. Let's test another limb.

Winner: Lance, and Garoppolo is traded or released

         

Washington Football Team: Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Taylor Heinicke vs. Kyle Allen

This is the ugliest camp battle, so much so that DraftKings doesn't even have odds listed despite the fact the team hasn't crowned anybody. The edge naturally belongs to Fitzpatrick because he signed a $10 million contract this offseason, but it's hard to imagine the brass is rooting for a 38-year-old journeyman who has never started a playoff game. 

Head coach Ron Rivera has spent plenty of time with both Heinicke and Allen in Carolina and Washington. Neither look like future stars, but Heinicke performed quite impressively in a playoff start against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in January, and Allen had some nice moments while starting in place of an injured Newton with the Carolina Panthers in 2019. 

The former is 28, the latter is 25. There's still some potential there. 

Still, Fitzpatrick is the safer option for a team that might just want to avoid a mess on offense while the defense takes care of business. Because they paid him handsomely this offseason, I figure they still roll with him early. But he's been extremely inconsistent throughout his career so expect multiple quarterbacks to start multiple games for the WFT in 2021. 

Winner: Fitzpatrick, but he won't hold on

         

Contract information courtesy of Spotrac.   

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.

      

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As NFL teams break for the final time before training camps get underway in earnest July 27, it's not unusual that a handful of veteran free agents don't yet have a home. It happens every year.

But the list of prominent vets still looking for work in 2021 is a bit jaw-dropping. There's a running back in Todd Gurley who was the league's Offensive Player of the Year in 2017. A cornerback in Richard Sherman who has been to five Pro Bowls. An edge-rusher in Justin Houston who has amassed 97.5 career sacks.

And they aren't even the cream of the crop.

Heading into 2020, Mitchell Schwartz was regarded by many as the NFL's preeminent right tackle. In 2019, in Kansas City's march to a championship, the 6'5", 320-pounder played 1,046 snaps—and didn't allow a single sack. That stellar year earned Schwartz his fourth All-Pro nod.

The back injury that robbed Schwartz of 10 games last year (and contributed to the Chiefs getting shelled in Super Bowl LV) got the 32-year-old released in the offseason.

The NFL can be cold sometimes.

Schwartz had surgery on his back in February, and he said to KCSP Radio in Kansas City (via Ed Easton Jr. of Chiefs Wire) that he's working toward full health before he moves on to the next chapter of his career.

"I gotta figure that out," said Schwartz. "I know some other teams have inquired, but again, just waiting to feel healthy. And once I feel healthy, then I can evaluate."

Were Schwartz already 100 percent, he'd have a team—and a fat paycheck. The list of right tackles who are better than him is short. But assuming he'll be fully healthy (or close to it) by the start of the regular season, a handful of teams should be on the phone with Schwartz's agent to arrange a sit-down.

Including one that already has his number.

     

Kansas City Chiefs

This signing would be predicated on a couple of things: Schwartz's willingness to brush off the sting of his release, and his willingness to likely take a sizable pay cut.

In that radio interview, Schwartz indicated he isn't necessarily averse to either: "I will, for no reason, shut the door on the Chiefs; I'm sure we'll talk at some point. It's all hypothetical anyway. I think you keep all your doors open anyway, so I'm not gonna lock myself in one way or another. Guys don't usually take the 'hometown discount,' but my situation is different."

Kansas City took a chainsaw to the offensive line in the offseason, adding Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown in a trade with the Baltimore Ravens and signing guards Joe Thuney and Kyle Long and center Austin Blythe. The Chiefs will also get guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif back after he opted out of the 2020 season, and they re-upped tackle Mike Remmers, who stepped in for Schwartz last year.

Remmers isn't terrible. In just over 700 snaps last year, he didn't allow a sack. But he most assuredly isn't Schwartz. He's a journeyman veteran who is well past age 30. Long already hurt his knee and could miss all of training camp.

A reunion may not be especially likely, but that doesn't make it unwise.

         

Los Angeles Chargers

This one would be a tough pill to swallow for Chiefs fans—and a potential godsend for reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert.

The Chargers have already taken major steps to improve an offensive line that Pro Football Focus ranked as the NFL's worst in 2020. The team signed Pro Bowl center Corey Linsley to a five-year, $62.5 million free-agent contract and used the 13th pick in April's draft on Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater. But even with those improvements, PFF still ranked L.A.'s new-look line in the league's bottom half.

Yes, the Chargers have a veteran right tackle in Bryan Bulaga. But the 32-year-old has had significant injury issues—the 11-year veteran missed six games in his first season with the Chargers last year because of various ailments, including back trouble, and has missed time in three of the past four campaigns.

Finding the cash to sign Schwartz isn't an issue—the Bolts have just under $20 million in available cap space, the fifth-most in the league.

Signing Schwartz would give the Chargers options. And an insurance policy against either another Bulaga injury or Slater taking time to acclimate to the NFL.

If everyone stays healthy, Bulaga could kick inside to guard (he played the position at Iowa). A line featuring Slater, Bulaga, Schwartz, Linsley and Matt Feiler would be light-years better than the sieve Herbert played behind in 2020.

           

Jacksonville Jaguars

The hardest part about pulling this one off is obvious: selling Schwartz on going from the two-time defending AFC champion to a team that lost 15 consecutive games in 2020.

However, the Jags do have one compelling factor working in their favor: $38.5 million in cap space, the most in the league.

Money talks.

Jacksonville surely hopes it hit the quarterback jackpot with Trevor Lawrence, the most highly touted prospect at his position since Andrew Luck entered the league in 2012. But we've seen more than one promising young QB have his confidence crushed by an unending onslaught of pass-rushers.

The Jaguars allowed 44 sacks last year, the seventh-most in the NFL. Much of those struggles can be attributed to a pair of young tackles in Cam Robinson, 25, and Jawaan Taylor, 23, who have been inconsistent at best. The latter in particular struggled last year. In 1,037 snaps, he gave up a cringeworthy eight sacks, and no tackle in the league allowed more pressures than the 58 he surrendered.

If Schwartz is anywhere close to his 2019 form, he'd be a titanic upgrade over Taylor—and a veteran presence who could hopefully help coax improvement from the younger tackles.

      

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bringing Schwartz to the Steel City would require some creative cap management from Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert, as Pittsburgh has less than $7.4 million in wiggle room.

But if the team is serious about making one last run at a Super Bowl with Ben Roethlisberger under center, then Colbert needs to bust out his abacus and get to work.

Because given how Pittsburgh's offensive line is constructed, the Steelers have a better chance of finishing last in the AFC North than first.

To be blunt, their line is a hot mess, especially on the edges. Right tackle Zach Banner tore his ACL in the season opener last year and has started just two games. Left tackle Chukwuma Okorafor, who took over for Banner in 2020, is a replacement-level talent who had an overall grade at PFF last year south of 60.

At this stage, Roethlisberger has all the mobility of a flagpole. Putting the 39-year-old behind the fourth-worst line in the league is a recipe for disaster. Put Schwartz at left tackle. Right tackle. Either way, he would be a gigantic upgrade.

If a reunion with the Chiefs is out, the Steelers could also offer Schwartz the opportunity to play for a good team.

         

Miami Dolphins

Mountains of words have been written about Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's prospects in his second season. Breakouts have been predicted. Mistakes on the practice field have been scrutinized into oblivion.

The Dolphins did a fine job of improving the weapons around him with the addition of receivers William Fuller V and rookie Jaylen Waddle. But there's an elephant in the room.

The offensive line in front of Tagovailoa is rather terrible. Miami allowed 34 sacks in 2020 and sported the league's fifth-worst line, per PFF. In that site's opinion, the 2021 iteration of that line is worse, as it sits 30th.

The Dolphins started a pair of rookies at tackle last year. First-rounder Austin Jackson gave up four sacks and committed five penalties, both tied for 19th in the league, in just under 850 snaps (41st), while second-rounder Robert Hunt allowed three sacks and committed eight penalties (seventh-worst) in 722 snaps (49th).

The finances would be tricky (Miami only has $5.3 million in cap space), and it's possible Hunt's play will improve in his second season.

But he could just as easily regress, and a young Dolphins line could use the veteran stability Schwartz would bring, especially when you consider that Tagovailoa is left-handed, so Schwartz would be guarding his blind side.

If Miami's serious about the playoffs, the team needs to get serious about Schwartz.

     

Advanced stats via Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted. Salary-cap info via Over the Cap.

The first games of the men's 2021 College World Series didn't disappoint, with NC State and Vanderbilt each forcing Stanford and Arizona into the losers' bracket Saturday.

The fate of the second half of the field will be determined through a pair of games Sunday, with Tennessee and Virginia facing off in a battle that began at 2 p.m. ET and Texas and Mississippi State handling the nightcap at 7 p.m. ET.

But as for those with one game already under their belt, their chance at a College World Series title is on the line in their next-ups. Here's a look at what's scheduled for Monday, as well as what to expect around the bracket:

     

College World Series Monday Schedule and TV Info

Elimination Game: Stanford vs. Arizona, 2 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Winners' Bracket: NC State vs. Vanderbilt, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

View the full College World Series bracket at NCAA.com.

     

Stanford vs. Arizona

These teams are far from strangers.

The Pac-12 opponents met earlier in May when the Wildcats were ranked No. 9 in the nation, and No. 16 Stanford claimed the series victory behind a standout performance from Alex Williams in the rubber game.

The 8-2 victory was even more striking at the time considering it followed a mismatched 20-2 loss on the Saturday of the series, which showcased a Wildcats team that was at the time the top offense in the conference. The lopsided loss was marked by 15 hits and 15 walks off six different pitchers, with the Wildcats scoring in six different innings.

But Vanderbilt quieted that fire-powered offense in the opening game of the College World Series on Saturday—though barely, as star Vandy pitcher Kumar Rocker was, well, rocked early, giving up three runs on four hits before settling in over 5.2 innings. It was thanks to the bullpen that the Commodores hung on for a 12-inning victory.

In Stanford's first outing Saturday, the Cardinal struggled behind Pac-12 Pitcher of the Year Brendan Beck. Beck was only credited with three runs, though NC State scored six throughout his tenure on the hill en route to a 10-4 win.

There's hope still for the Wildcats, who haven't lost two consecutive games since April. Stanford has been on a hotter run throughout the postseason, having dropped just two games while scoring at least nine runs in all five NCAA tournament wins.

Monday's must-win game figures to be a close one with both teams battling for their future in the tournament. But in the end, expect Arizona's high-powered offense—which boasts a fourth-best .329 team batting average—to win out.

Prediction: Arizona 5, Stanford 3

     

NC State vs. Vanderbilt

The Wolfpack's Cinderella run is on the line against Vanderbilt, though they certainly played like they belonged when they upended Stanford 10-4 on Saturday by powering out to a 6-0 lead, which was unlike the Commodores' late win over Arizona.

Jonny Butler was responsible for half of the Wolfpack's scoring, going 3-for-4 and bringing in five runs, the most by an NC State player in a College World Series game. He was one of two players to go yard in the outing along with Devonte Brown.

That offense should have the defense to back it when NC State takes the field against Vanderbilt on Monday. Sam Highfill should get the start on the hill, and the freshman has proved that he can hang on the big stage. He sent 16 consecutive batters down in Game 2 of the super regional series against top-ranked Arkansas and hasn't lost since April 3.

The Wolfpack's offense has helped the team lately, scoring at least six runs in all but two of its postseason games. But Vanderbilt's pitching staff is one of the best in the NCAA with a 3.37 combined ERA, ranking sixth overall. Jack Leiter and Rocker are the one-two punch of all one-two punches—Leiter leads the NCAA with 156 strikeouts and Rocker is just one behind him.

Head coach Tim Corbin acknowledged the impact of his aces after the tight victory that cemented their spot in the game against the Wolfpack.

"I thought they hung tough," Corbin said. "And the pitching allowed us to do that. If we don't pitch the way we do, then we don't get those moments."

With the off game already out of their system, the Commodores' pitching should be able to humble the Wolfpack to stay atop of Bracket 1.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 6, NC State 1

The eight remaining teams in the 2021 NCAA baseball tournament have been determined, and with a little help from Tennessee football product Peyton Manning and his legendary "Omaha" audible, the Vols and seven others squads are set to fight for the College World Series in Nebraska.

After surviving the regional and super-regional rounds, the eight remaining teams—Stanford, NC State, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Tennessee, Virginia, Texas and Mississippi State—will battle it out in a two-bracket, double-elimination tournament over the next two weeks. 

No, we didn't mistake anyone in that list: Top-seeded Arkansas was stunned by NC State in the super-regional despite beating the Wolfpack 21-2 in the first game of the series. 

Here's a look at all of the action, as well as what to expect before a winner is crowned and a look at the favorites in the tournament.

                

2021 CWS Schedule and TV Info (all times ET)

Saturday, June 19

Game 1: Stanford vs. NC State, 2 p.m. (ESPN)

Game 2: Vanderbilt vs. Arizona, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

       

Sunday, June 20

Game 3: Tennessee vs. Virginia, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)

Game 4: Texas vs. Mississippi State, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)

        

Monday, June 21

Game 5: Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser, 2 p.m. (ESPNU)

Game 6: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

         

Tuesday, June 22

Game 7: Game 3 loser vs. Game 4 loser, 2 p.m. (ESPNU)

Game 8: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)

         

Wednesday, June 23

Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 loser, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

        

Thursday, June 24 

Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 loser, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

          

Friday, June 25

Game 11: Game 6 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)

Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. Game 10 winner 7 p.m. (ESPN)

           

Saturday, June 26

Game 13 (if necessary): Game 11 winner vs. Game 11 loser 2 p.m. (ESPN)

Game 14 (if necessary): Game 12 winner vs. Game 12 loser 7 p.m. (ESPN2)

          

2021 College World Series Championship

Game 1: Monday, June 28, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)

Game 2: Tuesday, June 29, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

Game 3 (if necessary): Wednesday, June 30, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)

Full bracket via NCAA

             

Favorites

Of the eight teams in Omaha this year, more than half of them have lifted the trophy previously. Texas, Stanford, Virginia, Arizona and Vanderbilt have all won championships before, and Vanderbilt, Arizona and Virginia have won four of the last eight titles.

Vanderbilt is the most recent champion after defeating Michigan in 2019, the last championship held before the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Virginia won in 2015, the Commodores claimed another in 2014, and Arizona went undefeated in the tournament en route to the title in 2012. 

Kumar Rocker, who was named Most Outstanding Player en route to the Commodores' 2019 title, has starred again this year, with 20 strikeouts through 14.2 innings in tournament play. During the regular season, he went 13-3 with 155 strikeouts, which was second only to teammate Jack Leiter, who had 156 in 96 innings pitched. 

Stanford's Brendan Beck was named the Pac-12 Pitcher of the Year after he struck out 106 batters to lead the league, walking just 20 while limiting opposing hitters to a .188 average at the plate. 

𝗕𝗜𝗚 𝗣𝗘𝗥𝗙𝗢𝗥𝗠𝗔𝗡𝗖𝗘

Brendan Beck had himself a career day! The @StanfordBSB starter put up a career high 13 K's.#RoadToOmaha x 🎥 ESPNU pic.twitter.com/Ykdy0q7Pia

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) June 11, 2021

 

Mississippi State also boasts a conference MVP in Tanner Allen, who has earned SEC Player of the Year honors. He dominated the conference, ranking in the top 10 in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs, RBI, total bases and hits.

Overall, the lefty outfielder hit .392 through 60 games. 

Tanner Allen absolutely HAMMERED that!#RoadToOmaha x 🎥 ESPN pic.twitter.com/pPtoqAcajO

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) June 12, 2021

 

Virginia has been here before, though it has been on thin ice in the 2021 tournament. The Cavaliers dropped their first games of the regional and super-regional brackets but evaded elimination, thanks to a grand slam from freshman outfielder Kyle Teel in a winner-take-all outing against Dallas Baptist on Monday.

😱KYLE TEEL...GRAND SLAM😱@UVABaseball takes the lead, 5-2!#RoadToOmaha x 🎥 ESPNU pic.twitter.com/IWPQb1WJhJ

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) June 14, 2021

 

They also have a star on the bump in senior Andrew Abbott, who fanned 152 through 100.2 innings.

Even against a group of aces, the Arizona offense is sure to pack a punch. The Wildcats boast a .329 team batting average, ranking fourth in the NCAA. They're led by Branden Boissiere, a Pac-12 All-Conference selection whose .374 average has sustained 61 games and 246 at-bats, while his 92 hits rank fifth among all batters.  

Branden Boissiere breaks this game wide open with a bases clearing 3-RBI double!#RoadToOmaha x 🎥 ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/73MqYKrQga

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) June 14, 2021

 

Tennessee is vying for a title in its first College World Series appearance since 2005. That's the longest appearance drought of any teams in the bracket, with Stanford coming in second after last competing for the title in 2008. 

Texas, meanwhile, is making its record 37th appearance in the College World Series bracket. That's hardly a new record, though, since Miami (FL) is in second place with 25 appearances. 

           

Odds

Vanderbilt +275 (bet $100 to win $275)

Texas +325

Tennessee +350

Arizona +600

Mississippi State +650

Stanford +800

Virginia +1000

NC State +1200

Via DraftKings

             

For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.

Must be 21+ and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, Colorado or Tennessee. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. See sportsbook.fanduel.com for details.

Tonight and every Tuesday during the MLB season is NRFI Night in America, but this week I decided to change it up because of how hot the YRFI has been over the past week and the matchups on tap.

There were no NRFIs to be found. So, for the first time, it is YRFI Night in America. A meatball-palooza, if you will. Grab a bib because these meatballs are going to get messy.

What's a YRFI? It's a baseball betting proposition that stands for "yes-run first inning," in which you bet there will be a run in the first frame.

• 2021 NRFI record: 105-59 (64.0%)
• 2021 YRFI record: 17-19 (47.2%)

As posted on Twitter @TroyHermo.

The last week has been really rough for NRFIs. I've always said when the weather gets warmer, the bats get warmer, too. Clear skies mean bombs away for lineups across the league. It's rare to get a card with no games that I like for an NRFI, but that's the case. That's right: zero plays. It was all major red flags. But YRFIs have been hot recently, so I followed the trend and found some juicy plays. Let's turn those red flags into green bills.

You know the deal by now. Every Tuesday, I'll sift through the first-inning stats and hitter analysis to give the best plays available on the card. You can also follow my daily plays in the B/R Betting community section. Odds for every NRFI/YRFI line can be found on DraftKings. 

         

The Hermo Hammer Play of the Week: A YRFI Meatball-Palooza

2-Unit Play: Pittsburgh Pirates (Tyler Anderson) at Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin) [-125]

The scoop

Tyler Anderson

• Anderson has an atrocious 5.96 career first-inning ERA in 94 starts, making him a YRFI machine. This year has been no different with a 5.25 first-inning ERA and 7-5 NRFI record.
• The 31-year-old lefty has a 5.46 ERA on the road compared to a 3.79 ERA at PNC Park this year.
• Anderson has a 2-2 career NRFI record versus the Nationals.
• The Pirates are the worst in the majors at holding their opponent scoreless in the first inning. They get scored on 46.9 percent of the time.

Patrick Corbin

• Corbin has struggled this year with an 11.25 first-inning ERA. His first-inning numbers are even worse at home with a 13.50 ERA in six starts at Nationals Park. He is averaging 5.2 batters faced in the first inning. Corbin's milkshakes and declining fastball have brought the bats to the yard.
• He is one of the few pitchers in the majors with a sub-.500 NRFI record (5-7), and his NRFI record against the Pirates over his career is only 5-3.
• Pittsburgh third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes is 6-for-10 with two home runs in the first inning this season, and he would be 7-for-10 with three homers if he would've touched first base after going yard against the Los Angeles Dodgers last week. The Pirates see the ball well in the first inning and are collectively 66-for-252 (.262) with six homers.

Keep an eye out for the umpire announcement around game time. I'll like this play even more if there's an ump who is prone to overs.

         

Other YRFI Meatballs I'm Considering For 1-Unit Plays

Texas Rangers (Kyle Gibson) at Houston Astros (Lance McCullers Jr.) [+100]

Kyle Gibson, or "Gibby" as I call him on Twitter, is an NRFI star at home (6-0 record this year). But on the road, it's a different story: He has a 15.19 first-inning ERA in six starts. He averages 4.6 batters faced in the first inning, which is just too much danger to not get me excited for a YRFI. And the Astros are 79-for-259 (.305) with 12 homers in the first inning this year, if you needed any further convincing.

New York Yankees (Jordan Montgomery) at Toronto Blue Jays (Hyun Jin Ryu) [-124]

Jordan Montgomery has a horrible NRFI record on the road with a 12.00 ERA in six starts. His overall away numbers aren't much better with a 5.52 ERA. His slow starts on the road seem likely to continue against Toronto. The Jays' first five batters are hot, especially in the Nos. 2 and 3 holes, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting a combined 21-for-47 (.447) with five home runs in the last seven days through Sunday. You've got to love the YRFI chance.

         

Hermo's Corner of Gambling Advice: Don't Force the Action

Today is a perfect example of seeing the warning signs and staying away from forced action that's giving you doubts. Remember this phrase: If your picks give you any doubt, leave them the hell out.

Nobody should be forcing action just to have action. That's when the books win. You are going up against some very smart people and very advanced computers. They make even the best sharps look stupid. You will never win while playing with doubt. Do your research, follow the three-capper system I talked about last week, keep the units affordable, stay the course, and we will be successful this year.

Now, having some stats to back up your plays such as a weekly batting stat, a ballpark angle (my new favorite) or a day vs. night statistic always helps. Find angles that will give you less doubt and bring you more success.

Remember, NRFI nation: Research pays; the stats don't lie; and when in doubt, leave it out. We are well on our way to greatness. Get ready to feast during the first-ever Hermo meatball-palooza.