2021 NHL Stanley Cup Final: B/R Staff Predictions

And then there were two.

One team has defied the odds and the experts' projections to go on a magical run to the Stanley Cup Final. The other team is the defending champion, showing its class and pedigree throughout the postseason before surviving a taxing semifinal series.

Both the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning have a chance to rewrite the history books. The Lightning can become the first team since the 2016-17 Penguins to repeat as Stanley Cup champions, while the Canadiens can become the first Canadian team to win a Stanley Cup since 1993—coincidentally, the last time the Habs lifted the Cup.

Will Carey Price be able to stifle the Lightning's skilled forwards? How much is left in Tampa Bay's tank after enduring a punishing and physically taxing series against the New York Islanders?

B/R's experts have broken down the series and provided their predictions.

Don't agree with their picks? Make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments section!

We've made it to the end of the most unique NHL season any of us will (hopefully) see in our lifetimes. Two teams are left standing, and they're both Atlantic Division foes. One team you might have predicted would be in the Stanley Cup Final, and one team shocked us all.

It's been a strange season, to say the least.

The Canadiens had a tumultuous season in the all-Canadian North Division. Coach Claude Julien was fired. Goalie Carey Price turned in a mediocre season by his standards. The Habs scored goals and they created chances offensively (they were No. 2 in Corsi, per Natural Stat Trick), but they gave Price no help in the defensive end and their special teams were so-so.

Fast forward to the postseason. They sneaked in as the fourth seed in the North Division playoffs only because the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks were so bad. In any other year, Montreal would have missed the playoffs entirely.

But no one can say the team didn't make the most of the opportunity. The Habs turned into a different team.

Their penalty kill has been especially staunch. Price has been otherworldly once again. The power play started clicking. The Habs effectively neutralized some of the most dangerous scoring threats in the NHL, starting with the Toronto Maple Leafs' top line.

Auston Matthews was held to just a single goal and four assists. His shooting percentage was 2.9 in that first-round series. Mitchell Marner didn't score at all, and fans have not been shy about their desire to jettison him out of town after that series.

In the semifinal round, Vegas Golden Knights forward Mark Stone was held without a single point. The Golden Knights have high-end forwards, including former Canadien Max Pacioretty, but the top six was completely ineffective.

Now, the question is whether or not all of that is going to work against a powerhouse like Tampa Bay.

The Lightning were largely considered the best regular-season team in the salary-cap era that had little to show for it until last season when Tampa Bay won the Stanley Cup in the bubble. Their repeat bid hasn't come easy, but this is still the same team it's been for years: The dangerous power play, the exceptionally deep lineup, one of the best goalies in the world in Andrei Vasilevskiy and the savvy coach in Jon Cooper.

Center Brayden Point recently put together a nine-game postseason goal streak. The power play lacks some punch when it doesn't have winger Nikita Kucherov, but Kucherov returned for Game 7 against the New York Islanders on Friday night. Barring disaster, he'll be ready for Game 1 on Monday night at Amalie Arena.

The Habs have been a buzz saw this summer, but Tampa Bay might be the force that stops them.

Prediction: Lightning in six.

The 2021 Stanley Cup Final matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens is certainly unorthodox. Most people expected, or at least could easily foresee, the Lightning returning to the Final for a second straight season. It's the Habs' presence that would have bewildered most two months ago.

The Lightning are a juggernaut. Already a great team given their success in 2020, they were resourceful, to say the least, in taking advantage of cap space made available by Nikita Kucherov's regular-season injury to not only keep the championship roster basically intact but also make a big deadline move for defenseman David Savard.

The prevailing narrative during playoff hockey is typically about physicality winning out. While that's not completely inaccurate, it is interesting that many players moving the needle for Tampa Bay don't fit the mold of big and brawny. Kucherov leads the team in points, with 27 in 18 games, while Brayden Point has tallied an absurd 14 goals. Yanni Gourde, who scored the lone goal in Game 7 against the Islanders, is one of the league's better forecheckers and net-front battlers despite his listed 5'9" frame.

They do have one of the bigger defenses in the league. Victor Hedman is great, but the depth beyond him is almost unfair. Ryan McDonagh, Mikhail Sergachev and Savard would be top-pairing defensemen on many teams. And while Andrei Vasilevskiy is sometimes unreliable on low-percentage shots, his total output is well above average.

The Canadiens are clear underdogs and got to the Final with some fortune, but their success has been earned.

It starts in net, where Carey Price is turning back the clock and playing possibly the best hockey of his life. It's not all him, however.

The Habs have found an identity in being a team that suppresses offense. It has become easier to sympathize with the first-round struggles of Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner, as Montreal went on to negate both Winnipeg's and Vegas' top scorers just the same. Even Mark Stone, one of the most consistent players in the league, was rendered invisible, with no points and only seven shots on goal in six games.

It's a team effort, but the plaudit should go to the Lehkonen-Danault-Gallagher line. They have been tasked with shutting down the opposition's top lines, and they have overwhelmingly succeeded. Brendan Gallagher is one of the league's best two-way wingers, while Phillip Danault is emerging as one of the league's best defensive centers.

The Lightning are the heavy favorites. It's a team loaded everywhere on the roster, and it has more than enough experience to not become unnerved in the moment. The caveat is that the best chance of any team beating them, as the Islanders almost did, is by slowing down play and turning the series into a war of attrition. With Montreal's shot-suppressing tendencies and an incredibly hot goalie, they have a clear, even if narrow, path to victory.

Prediction: Lightning in five.

OK, it's time for a mea culpa.

I picked the Maple Leafs to beat the Canadiens. I picked the Jets to beat the Canadiens. I picked the Golden Knights to beat the Canadiens.

So my credibility as a hockey writer—or, more specifically, a hockey predictor—is suspect.

But I feel pretty confident in making this next statement: The Tampa Bay Lightning are the best team in hockey.

And they probably have been for most of the past four years.

Lest anyone forget, they were a game away from the Stanley Cup Final in 2018 before losing two straight to the Washington Capitals in the conference final. They won a league-record 62 games before a historic collapse against the Columbus Blue Jackets in the first round of the 2019 playoffs.

And that disappointment girded them for a successful run at the title last season.

It's the same resilience and resolve that got them past a pesky, plucky New York Islanders team that refused to go quietly until the Lightning simply smothered them in a Game 7 on Friday night.

Blending that sort of mettle with world-class skill all over the ice makes them hard to beat when they flick the switch and simply decide that it's time to start playing their best hockey.

Impossible even.

Case in point: They handled two of the league's top four teams—the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes—in the initial two rounds of the playoffs after finishing third in the Central Division, losing just three times. They then handled the Islanders in a semifinal series for the second consecutive season, outscoring them by a 15-3 margin in four victories while losing three times by a single goal.

And in the past four series-clinchers—dating back to the Cup win last September—goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been scored on precisely zero times.

Naturally, none of this is to say the Canadiens don't belong in the fight.

They finished 18th overall in the regular season but have performed light years better than that since mid-May, eliminating teams that were 16, 12 and four slots above them across 56 games.

Carey Price is the best goalie in the league outside the state of Florida, and winger Cole Caufield should already be clearing space on his shelf for the Calder Trophy he'll probably win next summer.

But while Montreal is a worthwhile opponent. The Lightning are something else entirely.

A truly great team. And that's what'll matter.

Prediction: Lightning in five.

This Stanley Cup Final features a matchup no one expected when the playoffs began on May 15.

It's not surprising the Tampa Bay Lightning got this far. The defending Stanley Cup champions possess a star-studded lineup with considerable playoff experience.

Facing them are the Montreal Canadiens, who had the worst regular-season record of the postseason contestants. Few gave them a chance of getting past the opening round, let alone reaching the Cup Final.

The Lightning roster features Vezina Trophy finalist Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal, while their blue line is led by James Norris Memorial Trophy finalist Victor Hedman. Their forward lines include captain Steven Stamkos, former scoring champion Nikita Kucherov, high-scoring center Brayden Point and rugged two-way forward Alex Killorn.

Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Killorn and Hedman are this postseason's top-five scorers. Vasilevskiy leads all goalies with a .936 save percentage and four shutouts. The Lightning's goals-per-game average (3.22) and power-play percentage (37.7) rank second among the playoff clubs.

The Canadiens lack that type of star power except for Carey Price, who's reminding everyone why he's still an all-world goaltender. The 33-year-old netminder played a big role in the Canadiens' march to the Final. His .934 save percentage is second to Vasilevskiy's, while his 2.02 goals-against average ranks third overall.

Price's performance tells only part of the story. The Canadiens have a playoff-best 93.5 penalty-killing percentage. They have a strong defensive system featuring blueliners Shea Weber and Jeff Petry and two-way forwards Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher. Led by winger Tyler Toffoli and emerging stars Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, the Habs are fourth in even-strength scoring.

The Lightning can adjust their game to suit any style. They used their potent offense to outgun the Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes and went on to grind out a seven-game semifinal series victory over the tight-checking New York Islanders.

Nevertheless, the Bolts must not underestimate the Canadiens. They eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets and Vegas Golden Knights with their strong goaltending, quick transition game and ability to roll four lines, gaining strength and confidence as they go.

Everything points to a Lightning victory, but the Canadiens have defied the critics and beat the odds this spring. With faith in their system and Price's netminding, they could pull off one more upset.

Prediction: Canadiens in six.