Matt Ryan

The hardest internal roster decisions for fantasy football managers to make boil down to three words: start or sit.

As simple and straightforward as it sounds, seasoned players know it's the type of tricky call that can wreck sleep schedules and spawn a seemingly endless loop of tinkering.

Do you really sit that early draft pick for that tough-on-paper matchup? Is it time to awaken to that sneaky sleeper you've been waiting to unleash against an exploitable defense?

Unfortunately, these decisions are team- and league-dependent, so we can't provide a catch-all, universal guide to roster management. What we can (and will) do, though, is provide a few helpful hints by way of our top start-or-sit recommendations for Week 7.

                

Start: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Detroit Lions)

One look at the game log might lead you to believe there's no telling whether you're going to get Matty Ice or Matty Ice-Cold any given week. But it's not as complicated (or unpredictable) as it seems.

Sure, Ryan recently sputtered through a three-week stretch where he delivered just one touchdown pass total. But in his other three outings, he averaged 364.7 passing yards and 3.3 touchdown tosses. Want to know his super-secret formula for success? He had a healthy Julio Jones in his monster outings and either no Jones or no Jones for a full half in the others.

Fantasy football can be simple like that, folks. Jones came back in a big way last weekend (eight receptions for 137 yards and two scores), and he's ready to keep rolling.

"Lean on me. You can lean on me throughout the game, everything—I'm ready to go," Jones told reporters. "It's a great feeling."

An almost equally great feeling is knowing Ryan now draws a Detroit defense allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, per Yahoo Sports. And, since Atlanta's aerial defense is even leakier (more fantasy points allowed per game to passers than anyone), this has serious shootout potential.

                  

Sit: Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Carr enters this contest red-hot and had the Raiders' passing offense steamrolling before their Week 6 bye. In his previous two outings before the break, he totaled 658 passing yards with five touchdowns against a single interception.

Why on earth, then, are we saying not to play him? Because he's going against a Tampa Bay defense that silences even the highest-caliber quarterbacks.

Drew Brees, a two-time AP Offensive Player of the Year, and Aaron Rodgers, a two-time MVP, have both gone head-to-head with the Bucs this season. These two Hall of Fame-bound signal-callers totaled 320 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions between them in the two contests.

Are you really ready to bet on Carr bucking the trend against a defense surrendering the third-fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks? How about if you knew there's a chance he'll be missing all five of his starting offensive linemen? And even if four of them do play—right tackle Trent Brown is definitely out—they will be doing so after missing practice since Wednesday?

Stay far, far away from the Raiders passing game in this one.

                

Sit: Jerick McKinnon, RB, San Francisco 49ers (at New England Patriots)

With Raheem Mostert headed to injured reserve, the door is theoretically open for McKinnon to grab hold of San Francisco's vacated RB1 designation.

McKinnon's trademark burst has been seldom-seen this season, which probably should've been expected considering he lost the past two campaigns to injury. While his 41 carries have delivered 211 yards, 55 of them came on a single play. Remove that from the equation, and you're left with a pretty pedestrian 3.9 yards per carry.

San Francisco also has a crowded running back group even without Mostert or Tevin Coleman. The Niners gave more work to rookie JaMycal Hasty (nine carries for 37 yards) than McKinnon (six for 18) last week, and now Jeff Wilson Jr. might re-enter the mix, too.

If that wasn't all worrisome enough, this matchup is absolutely brutal. The Patriots have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and it's somewhat surprising they're even that high. They've only given up one rushing touchdown and one receiving touchdown to running backs all season and haven't been scored on by the position since Week 2.

The Atlanta Falcons have NFL insiders wondering if quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones will be "shopped" ahead of the Nov. 3 trade deadline, per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano.

The duo reported Tuesday the Falcons could be heading toward a "near-complete teardown," with Ryan and Jones among the high-profile names to hit the trade block in such an instance.

Atlanta is 1-5 after posting a 7-9 record in each of the past two seasons.

The Falcons scored a 40-23 victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in their first game under interim head coach Raheem Morris, who was promoted from defensive coordinator after Dan Quinn's firing last week.

"It shows what we're capable of doing," Ryan told reporters. "We just have to find a way to be at that level week in and week out."

The biggest hurdle to any potential trades involving Atlanta's offensive stars is their contracts.

Ryan, the 2016 NFL MVP, and Jones, a seven-time Pro Bowler, are both signed through the 2023 season, with the quarterback on a five-year, $150 million contract and the wide receiver having a three-year, $66 million deal.

Those types of contracts are difficult to move given the NFL's salary cap, particularly in Ryan's case since his cap hit is scheduled to skyrocket to $40.9 million in 2021, per Spotrac.

It's far more likely they can be moved in the offseason, when interested teams could also discuss restructuring options. Atlanta's rebuild may be in full swing by that point if its playoff drought extends to three years.

Both Ryan, 35, and Jones, 31, are likely past their peak seasons but could still make a major impact in the short term after a trade.

For now, the Falcons will attempt to keep turning their 2020 campaign around when they host the Detroit Lions at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday.

The Atlanta Falcons will be getting a new head coach and a new general manager, and they may end up with a new quarterback.

Team owner Arthur Blank said Monday that he would not be making—or preventing—changes under center, per D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

"I love Matt, much like I love Dan [Quinn] and I love Thomas [Dimitroff]. Matt has been a franchise leader for us. A great quarterback. One of the leading quarterbacks in the last 13 years in the NFL. So, I hope he's going to be a part of our plans going forward, but that will be a decision that I won't make."

Ryan, who is the only player in Falcons history to be named the NFL MVP, has three more seasons remaining on the five-year extension he signed in May 2018 and is owed a total of $74.75 million through the rest of his contract. The 35-year-old, in his 13th season, told PFT PM in July that he wants to play until he is at least 43. But Blank said Monday he doesn't know if that will happen in Atlanta.

"Matt has the ability to play at a high level even at this age, whether if that is going to continue or not, I'm not sure," Blank said. "I appreciate his willingness to consider doing that and the level that he's played for us, for 13 years, which has been incredible. So, I will....we'll have to see."

With the second pick in the upcoming NFL draft, the Falcons, who have produced 7-9 seasons in 2018 and 2019 after a Super Bowl run in 2016 and a playoff appearance in 2017, have the possibility to select Ryan's replacement in star college quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields or Trey Lance. Ryan has contributed to the Falcons' 0-5 start with 129-of-204 passing (63.2 completion percentage) and seven touchdowns, with 11 sacks and three picks.

"That's going to have be a decision, at the end of the day, part of it will be up to player and part of it will be up to the (new) coaching staff," Blank said. "Whether or not Matt can keep himself together and God willing, he'll be able to do that and play at the level he's capable of playing at."

Week 5 is projected to be the most lopsided week of the NFL season yet. 

Eight teams are favored by seven points or more, and there are an abundance of experts who believe those squads can win without facing much of a fight. 

Points are also expected to flow in from Thursday to Monday, with five matchups possessing an over-under above 50. 

The Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings are expected to score the most points Sunday, but one divisional showdown in the NFC could outpace two sides playing at CenturyLink Field. 

       

Week 5 Schedule and Odds

All Times ET; Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Thursday, October 8

Tampa Bay (-3.5) at Chicago (8:20 p.m., NFL Network) (Over/Under: 44.5)

     

Sunday, October 11

Buffalo at Tennessee (1 p.m., CBS) (N/A)

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-13.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 52)

Jacksonville at Houston (-6) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 54)

Las Vegas at Kansas City (-13) (1 p.m., CBS)

Arizona (-7) at New York Jets (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 47)

Carolina at Atlanta (-1.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U:54.5)

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Washington (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 45)

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (-7.5) (1 p.m., Fox)  (O/U: 44.5)

Miami at San Francisco (-9) 4:05 p.m., Fox)

Denver at New England (4:25 p.m., CBS) (N/A)

Indianapolis (-2) at Cleveland (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 46)

New York Giants at Dallas (-9.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 54)

Minnesota at Seattle (-7) (8:20 p.m., NBC) (O/U: 57.5)

      

Monday, October 12

Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans (-7.5) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 51)

Picks against the spread in bold

        

Expert Predictions

According to NFL Pick Watch, over 90 percent of experts have sided in one direction in 12 matchups. 

The Arizona Cardinals are the only unanimous favorite for their trip to MetLife Stadium to play the New York Jets. 

Tampa Bay is heavily favored to take its Thursday night clash over Chicago. That meeting will mark the first time Tom Brady and Nick Foles face off since Foles led Philadelphia over Brady's New England Patriots to a win in Super 52. 

Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Rams are among the teams with over 95 percent of the expert selections going in their favor. 

So far, the game with the biggest split is Indianapolis' trip to Cleveland, as the Browns have 52 percent of the picks going their way.

        

Picks

Carolina at Atlanta (Over 54.5)

Carolina comes into Week 5 off its best offensive performance of the season. 

The Panthers produced a season-best 31 points and 444 total yards to defeat Arizona, and now they get to face Atlanta's struggling defense. 

The Falcons conceded over 400 total yards in each of their last three contests, and they have been unable to stop any passing attack.

That bodes well for the growing connection between Teddy Bridgewater and Robby Anderson, which produced 99 yards in Week 4. 

Mike Davis and Reggie Bonnafon also formed a decent one-two punch out of the backfield with 137 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards. Davis may have a heavier workload against Atlanta since Bonnafon was placed on the practice squad injured list with an ankle injury, per ESPN.com's David Newton. 

Bridgewater could call on Davis, or other running backs, to break down Atlanta's porous passing defense, which has allowed the most touchdowns and second-most yards in the NFL. 

Carolina has only allowed 908 passing yards on defense, but it conceded the fifth-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks at 71.7. 

The high success rate for opposing quarterbacks may allow Matt Ryan to torch the Panthers secondary with his wealth of options, led by Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. 

Ryan led the Falcons offense to over 300 total yards in every game this season, and they scored 25 points or more in their first three games.

If all of those trends come to fruition Sunday, the Panthers and Falcons may produce the highest-scoring game of the weekend.

        

Minnesota at Seattle (Over 57.5)

With the way Seattle's offense and defense have been playing so far, it is hard not to take the over in its games, no matter how high the total is. 

The Seahawks eclipsed the 30-point mark in each of their four victories and have conceded the most total yards in the NFL. 

Minnesota is coming off its third 30-point outing of 2020 against Houston in which it put together its second straight 400-yard game. 

The majority of Seattle's defensive concessions have come through the air, as it has allowed 1,604 passing yards compared to 303 rushing yards. 

Kirk Cousins likely will not match Russell Wilson's pocket production, but if he finds a way to throw for around 250 yards, like he has in three of four games, the Vikings can flex a balanced offense and be competitive on the road. 

The key factor for Cousins' success, and for the over to hit, is his avoidance of turnovers. Week 4 marked the first time the Minnesota quarterback did not throw an interception this season. 

If Cousins makes a few completions in third-down or long-yardage situations, and continues to receive help from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison in the ground game, the Vikings should hit a decent point total. 

Seattle will likely be responsible for the bulk of the points since Wilson has thrown for 1,285 yards and 16 touchdowns. 

If the Seahawks produce a high total again, all the over would need is 20-25 points out of the Vikings, which is very doable against Seattle's defense.

       

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference  

Atlanta Falcons receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will be available for Monday's game against the Green Bay Packers.

Tom Pelissero of NFL Network reported the wideouts are good to go.

Jones missed last week's game against the Chicago Bears while nursing a lingering hamstring injury. Ridley was listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

The Falcons entered Week 4 among the most desperate teams in the sport, sitting at 0-3 after back-to-back embarrassing comeback losses. Having Jones and Ridley in the lineup should give them enough offensive firepower to compete with a Packers team that may be without Davante Adams for the second straight week.

Jones has recorded 11 receptions for 181 yards through his first two games played in 2020. Ridley has overtaken Jones as Matt Ryan's top target, but both remain clear WR1s in fantasy formats because of the Falcons' high-octane offense. Ridley has racked up 21 grabs for 349 yards and four touchdowns, going over the 100-yard mark the last three weeks.

Russell Gage may see a downtick in work with Jones back in the lineup.

Week 4 got off to an interesting start Thursday night. The Denver Broncos and third-string quarterback Brett Rypien managed to outlast former third overall pick Sam Darnold and the New York Jets. While it wasn't an exciting matchup on paper, it proved to be a thrilling kickoff to the week.

The excitement level is likely to only build from here.

Sunday brings some pivotal matchups, like the 2-1 Indianapolis Colts against the 3-0 Chicago Bears or the 3-0 Buffalo Bills against the 2-1 Las Vegas Raiders. The Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers are set to close out the week Monday night in a game that will feature the fireworks of two prolific offenses.

As a reminder, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans has been postponed until Oct. 25 because of a COVID-19 outbreak. The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs game has also been postponed after Patriots quarterback Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19.

Here you will find the relevant scheduling and viewing information for the remaining Week 4 schedule, along with some of the top storylines.

                        

NFL Week 4 Coverage Map (from 506 Sports)

https://twitter.com/506sports/status/1311351004068282369

    

              

NFL Week 4 Schedule, TV and Live Stream

Sunday, October 4

1 p.m. ET

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Football Team: CBS, CBS Sports App

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CBS, CBS Sports App

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: Fox, Fox Sports Go

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans: Fox, Fox Sports Go

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: Fox, Fox Sports Go

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys: Fox, Fox Sports Go

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: CBS, CBS Sports App

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: Fox, Fox Sports Go

4:05 p.m. ET

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams: Fox, Fox Sports Go

4:25 p.m. ET

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders: CBS, CBS Sports App

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears: CBS, CBS Sports App

8:20 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers: NBC, NBC Sports App

                  

Monday, October 5 at 8:15 p.m.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: ESPN, ESPN App

             

Ravens Looking to Rebound

The Baltimore Ravens got blown out by the Chiefs on Monday night, and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson acknowledged that overcoming Kansas City will be a challenge.

"Our kryptonite," is what Jackson called Kansas City following the 34-20 loss.

Baltimore won't get another crack at the Chiefs until the postseason, at the earliest. The Ravens' task in the meantime is to prove to the rest of the NFL—and to themselves—that they are still one of the best teams in football.

The Ravens also have to keep pace with the 3-0 Steelers in the AFC North.

A big win over the Washington Football Team on Sunday would help to erase the bitter taste of the defeat to Kansas City from the Ravens' collective mouths. That shouldn't be a problem if Baltimore can get an early lead and fluster Washington quarterback Dwayne Haskins the way the Cleveland Browns did in Week 3.

Haskins was sacked three times and committed four turnovers against Cleveland. A similar stat line should result in an easy victory for the Ravens.

                 

Not Quite Must-Win Games for the Cowboys, Eagles

It's tough to call a Week 4 contest a must-win, but for a team sitting at 1-2 or 0-3, it often is. This isn't the case for the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, however, because the NFC East is the worst division in football.

If we assume Washington loses to Baltimore on Sunday, The Eagles can match its 1-3 mark with an upset over the San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys can take control of the division with a win over the visiting Cleveland Browns.

Here's the thing, though. Even if the Cowboys, the Eagles or both lose in Week 4, neither team is going to be more than two games back in the divisional race—and the New York Giants aren't likely to make up ground anytime soon.

This puts the Cowboys and the Eagles in a different position than, say, the Jets. New York fell to 0-4 on Thursday and could be looking up at the 4-0 Buffalo Bills come Monday.

                   

The Falcons Could Be at a Crossroads

The Falcons, meanwhile, are facing a must-win situation—and not necessarily for this season. While falling to 0-4 wouldn't end Atlanta's season, it would entrench head coach Dan Quinn on the hot seat.

Quinn is already there after Atlanta blew back-to-back double-digit fourth-quarter leads. A loss against a Packers team without wideout Allen Lazard and possibly without Davante Adams will likely put Quinn on a collision course with the unemployment line—though his players have steadfastly defended him.

"We did not finish for him," running back Todd Gurley said, per Will McFadden of the team's official website. "... This has nothing to do with him."

If the Falcons keep grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, it's hard to envision Quinn sticking around beyond this season. If that happens, the entire franchise could be headed in a new direction—as could 35-year-old quarterback Matt Ryan.

An upset win over the Packers would cool off Quinn's seat tremendously.

The Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams appear to have the easiest matchups in Week 4. 

The Ravens and Rams are both double-digit favorites on the spread, and they are viewed by most experts as the teams with the smallest chance to lose Sunday. 

Although they have the largest point spreads of the week, the games involving the Ravens and Rams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to Week 4 over/under lines. 

Eight of the 15 games scheduled to take place over the next four days have totals set above 50.

The Dallas Cowboys are expected to be involved in another high-scoring affair Sunday with the Cleveland Browns, but the projected total of 56 may be too high for both squads to achieve.  

The Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons are projected to score a bit more Monday night, as that matchup has the highest over/under of 56.5. 

Based off the way their respective offenses are playing, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan could go back and forth at times in what could potentially be the weekend's highest-scoring affair. 

               

NFL Week 4 Schedule

All Times ET; odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Predictions against the spread in bold.

Thursday, October 1

Denver at New York Jets (-1) (8:20 p.m., NFL Network) (Over/Under: 41)

       

Sunday, October 4

Baltimore (-13) at Washington (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 45.5)

Indianapolis (-2.5) at Chicago (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 43)

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-3) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 49)

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay (-7.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 43.5)

Arizona (-3.5) at Carolina (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 51.5)

Cleveland at Dallas (-4.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 56)

Minnesota at Houston (-4.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 54.5)

New Orleans (-4) at Detroit (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 54)

Seattle (-6.5) at Miami (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 53)

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13) (4:05 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 48)

New England at Kansas City (-6.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 53)

Buffalo (-3) at Las Vegas (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 52.5)

Philadelphia at San Francisco (-6) (8:20 p.m., NBC) (O/U: 46)

        

Monday, October 5

Atlanta at Green Bay (-7.5) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 56.5)

       

Expert Predictions

According to NFL Pick Watch, the Ravens and Rams have been projected to win their respective matchups by 100 percent of the experts who have submitted picks as of Thursday morning.

The Seattle Seahawks are the only other unanimous favorite in Week 4 for their trip to Hard Rock Stadium against the Miami Dolphins. 

The most contested predictions are for the Thursday night game between the Denver Broncos and New York Jets. 

Fifty-six percent of the experts believe the Broncos will go into MetLife Stadium on short rest and defeat the Jets with Brett Rypien at quarterback. Rypien is Denver's third different starter in four weeks. 

At the moment, Indianapolis is the only other team favored to win with less than 70 percent of the predictions in its favor. Sixty-five percent experts believe the Colts will defeat the Chicago Bears. 

        

Over/Under Predictions

Cleveland at Dallas (Under 56)

Taking the under for Sunday's game at AT&T Stadium has more to do with the ineffectiveness of the Cleveland offense than it does with Dallas' overall production.

Dallas' three games featured an average of 61.6 points, but that total is inflated by two results against Atlanta and Seattle. 

Cleveland has put up back-to-back 30-point performances, but they occurred against two of the weakest teams in the league, Cincinnati and Washington. 

The Cowboys' defensive advantage could come defending the pass against Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Dallas allowed 11 receptions and 70 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Both totals rank among the five best numbers in those categories. Chubb and Hunt combined for 11 receptions, and Hunt has scored twice through the air. 

If the Cowboys take away that aspect of the Browns offense, they could force the visitors out of a rhythm and into long-yardage situations. 

Cleveland went 5-of-14 on third-down conversions in its Week 3 win over Washington, and Baker Mayfield has not thrown for 300 yards in a road game since Week 4 of 2019 in Baltimore. 

If Dallas frustrates Cleveland on third down and forces Mayfield into uncomfortable situations, it could earn some key defensive stops throughout the game that limit the Browns' point total, and in turn, hurt the potential of the over hitting.

         

Atlanta at Green Bay (Over 56.5)

Green Bay scored 122 points in its first three games. Atlanta conceded 108 points in defeats to Seattle, Dallas and Chicago.

Those totals suggest a large chunk of points will occur in the Week 4 finale at Lambeau Field. 

Rodgers could take advantage of an Atlanta secondary that was one Seattle passing yard away from giving up three straight 300-yard passing performances to open the season. 

Three different Green Bay wide receivers have more than 160 yards, and the Packers did not appear to be affected by Davante Adams' absence in Week 3 at New Orleans. 

Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling stepped into larger roles, and Rodgers found more comfort in his tight ends. Three wide receivers and two tight ends have caught touchdown passes from Rodgers, and all but one of them has made multiple trips to the end zone.

On top of that production, Aaron Jones has run for 303 yards and four scores against Minnesota, Detroit and New Orleans. 

The Falcons were gashed for at least 125 rushing yards by the Cowboys and Bears in the last two weeks. 

Atlanta's offense may not be able to go head-to-head for four quarters with Green Bay, but there could be stretches in which Ryan answers Rodgers with scoring plays of his own. 

Green Bay's defense allowed New Orleans and Minnesota to put up 30-point performances, and it may have a hard time containing Calvin Ridley, who has caught 21 of his 35 targets for 349 yards and four touchdowns. 

If Ridley's production remains high and the Falcons receive support in the passing game from Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst, they should help the over hit in fairly comfortable fashion.

            

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.