Week 3 of an NFL season is crucial because few teams can climb out of a major hole created by a slow start...
Week 2 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over-Under Predictions for Sunday
Sep 19, 2020
Los Angeles Rams defensive end Aaron Donald, right, chases Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott during an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)
The Atlanta Falcons defense did not inspire much confidence in Week 1, as it was gashed for 38 points and 383 total yards by the Seattle Seahawks.
Dan Quinn's side does not get a respite in Week 2 in its matchup with a Dallas Cowboys offense that was supposed to be one of the most explosive in the NFL. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Co. managed just 17 points in a loss to the Los Angeles Rams, but they have high expectations to score in bunches Sunday.
The largest over/under total for Week 2 has been assigned to the Falcons' visit to AT&T Stadium, and there are signs the matchup could hit a high total.
The expectations are much lower for the Buffalo Bills, but they could be in line to take advantage of a second straight AFC East contest and produce a sizable amount of points Sunday.
Although the Cowboys put up 17 points in Week 1, they posted 380 total yards and benefited from a steady dose of Elliott on the ground.
Elliott may be the key factor to push the total over Sunday if he adds a few receptions to his already high workload out of the backfield.
The Dallas running back caught three of his four targets for 31 yards and a score against the Los Angeles Rams, and he could be used more often across the middle with tight end Blake Jarwin out injured.
If Elliott keeps a linebacker or safety occupied in the passing game, Prescott could have one-on-one matchups to exploit through Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb against a Falcons passing defense that conceded299 yardsin the Week 1 loss to Seattle. Twenty-five of the 39 passes thrown by Prescott went in the direction of his top three receivers in Week 1.
Dating back to Week 12 of 2019, the Falcons have allowed over 20 points to all but one of their opponents.
In the same span, the Matt Ryan-led offense eclipsed the 20-point mark on six occasions in seven games.
Ryan targeted each of his top three receivers on 12 occasions in Week 1, and he could find some mismatches with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage against a Dallas defense that let Rams quarterback Jared Goff throw for 269 yards.
If Ryan mixes up his targets again and receives a decent dose of Todd Gurley out of the backfield, the Falcons could have enough firepower to make up for any defensive shortcomings and match Dallas' production.
Buffalo at Miami (Over 41)
Buffalo's 404-yard Week 1 performance flew under the national radar a bit because that total occurred against the New York Jets. The Bills could be in for a similarly high total in Week 2 against another weaker AFC East foe, though.
In their two games against Miami in 2019, the Bills eclipsed the 30-point mark and produced 729 total yards. Although Miami made defensive improvements in the offseason, it may take some time for the chemistry to come together with no preseason reps.
Miami showed some defensive lapses in its opening loss to New England, and it could face another tough task on the ground against Buffalo. The Dolphins allowed 217 rushing yards as part of their concession of 357 total yards.
The Bills have a mobile quarterback in Josh Allen, and the addition of Zack Moss to the backfield led by Devin Singletary makes them a tougher team to defend. If that three-pronged attack opens up the Miami defense and Allen is able to drop a few deep passes in to Stefon Diggs and others, Buffalo could once again have its way with the Dolphins defense.
For the over to hit, the Dolphins need to score a touchdown or two. That is possible if they drop their turnover count from the three they had in Week 1. If that happens, the Dolphins should provide enough support for the over to hit on one of the smallest totals of Week 2.
NFL Week 2 Picks: Final Predictions and Over-Under Odds Before Thursday Night
Sep 17, 2020
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) passes against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half of an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020. (AP Photo/Josie Lepe)
Bettors of the world, how are your wallets looking after Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season?
If you backed the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints, they should be in great shape. But if you went big on the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then not so much.
Another week brings another round of money-making opportunities, though, so let's not waste any more time celebrating our victories or lamenting our defeats. Instead, let's get to the latest lines from DraftKings, provide a score prediction for each contest and lay out three of our strongest hunches.
NFL Week 2 Point Spreads and Over/Under Totals
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6) | O/U 43
San Francisco 49ers (-7) at New York Jets | O/U 42.5
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) at Miami Dolphin | O/U 41
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | O/U 49.5
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) | O/U 41.5
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) | O/U 48.5
Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts (-3) | O/U 48
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-9) | O/U 42
Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles | O/U 45.5
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) | O/U 53
New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-5.5) | O/U 42.5
Washington at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) | O/U 46.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at Los Angeles Chargers | O/U 47.5
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Houston Texans | O/U 52
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-4) | O/U 45
New Orleans Saints (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders | O/U 50.5
Week 2 Score Predictions
Bengals 23, Browns 20
49ers 28, Jets 10
Bills 21, Dolphins 16
Packers 24, Lions 20
Steelers 28, Broncos 42
Buccaneers 31, Panthers 24
Vikings 24, Colts 21
Titans 24, Jaguars 13
Rams 27, Eagles 24
Cowboys 34, Falcons 27
Giants 20, Bears 14
Cardinals 31, Washington 10
Chiefs 28, Chargers 20
Ravens 34, Texans 27
Seahawks 29, Patriots 20
Saints 34, Raiders 24
Strongest Hunches for Week 2
49ers Will Cover With Ease
The 49ers certainly didn't look like the 13-win, defending NFC champions in their Week 1 loss to the Cardinals. This is their chance to correct that.
The Jets are not good. Their 27-17 loss to the Bills was even more lopsided than it sounds. New York's first points didn't come until there were three seconds left in the first half. By that point, Buffalo already had 21 points on the board. The Bills basically went into cruise control from there, and even then, they had a 17-point advantage before the Jets scored in the game's final minute.
This has get-right game written all over it for San Francisco. Its defense had trouble with a mobile quarterback in Kyler Murray and an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. New York has none of those things. Its offense featured a rusty-looking Jimmy Garoppolo (57.6 completion percentage). He'll get another week to find his rhythm then face a pass defense that no longer has Jamal Adams protecting its back end.
The Niners might not win the NFC again. Most Super Bowl losers don't get a chance to avenge their loss. But this team can and should roll over New York by a double-digit margin.
Cowboys and Falcons Will Blow Past the Over
If folks in Atlanta listen closely enough, they can still hear the fireworks from Sunday's 38-25 loss to the Seahawks. The game was basically a master class in aerial attacking, as Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards, and Russell Wilson went for 322 with the same number of incompletions and touchdowns (four each).
The fireworks were more subdued in the Cowboys' 20-17 loss to the Rams. Dak Prescott threw the game's only touchdown pass. Just 10 points were scored after halftime, but the two clubs combined for more than 800 yards of offense.
In other words, Dallas has the firepower to put a huge number in the scoring column, even if it didn't do that Sunday night. Atlanta has the explosive offense and leaky defense to find itself in high-scoring shootouts from week-to-week.
While 53 points is a healthy number—the highest over/under for Week 2—it still feels short of what these teams will ultimately post. When you can feel comfortable banking on at least 700 passing yards from the two quarterbacks, you're probably headed toward a total score in the 60s.
Cardinals Will Cruise to Double-Digit Victory
So, maybe we should've seen this coming, but the Murray-Hopkins connection has a chance to be special.
Granted, Hopkins could probably look good with any passer, but his Cardinals debut was ridiculous even by his standards. He turned his 16 targets into 14 receptions for 151 yards. The 14 catches were a new career-high, and the 151 yards matched his seventh-highest game total.
"We can be great," Murray told reporters. "I know we both have aspirations of being the best to do it. So that's where I hope to take this thing. We don't step into the building every day and try to get worse. We try to be the best that we can be. I'm glad that he's on our team."
Arizona seems like the kind of club that could dramatically outperform expectations. What that means for gamblers is it's time to go heavy on this team before oddsmakers figure out how good it is.
NFL Power Rankings Week 2: Latest Outlook and 2020-21 Super Bowl Odds
Sep 14, 2020
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) works in the p[ocket against the Atlanta Falcons during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
Save for the two games left on Monday night, Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season is already in the books.
Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have already thrown their hats into the MVP race, which each has won in the past two seasons. Aaron Rodgers, the 2011 and 2014 winner, suggested Sunday he could be in the running, too.
Cam Newton opened his New England Patriots career with a victory. Tom Brady couldn't do the same with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers already have their first loss after opening last season with an 8-0 start. The defeat was handed to them by the Arizona Cardinals, who didn't get their first win in 2019 until Week 5.
While it's never wise to overreact to one week of football—especially a season opener for teams who didn't get a preseason—this is still our first data point for the new campaign. Things have changed. Maybe not in a dramatic way, maybe not permanently, but teams are moving up and down the power rankings while Super Bowl odds are changing.
We'll get to both below, using the latest Super Bowl odds from Vegas Insider (as of 8:30 a.m. ET Monday).
NFL Power Rankings (Super Bowl Odds)
1. Kansas City Chiefs (+450)
2. Baltimore Ravens (+500)
3. New Orleans Saints (+1000)
4. Seattle Seahawks (+1200)
5. San Francisco 49ers (+1000)
6. Green Bay Packers (+3000)
7. New England Patriots (+4000)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (+2500)
9. Dallas Cowboys (+1200)
10. Buffalo Bills (+3000)
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1200)
12. Minnesota Vikings (+2500)
13. Tennessee Titans (+4000)
14. Houston Texans (+6000)
15. Los Angeles Rams (+5000)
16. Arizona Cardinals (+6000)
17. Philadelphia Eagles (+2500)
18. Indianapolis Colts (+2500)
19. Atlanta Falcons (+5000)
20. Los Angeles Chargers (+5000)
21. Denver Broncos (+4000)
22. Las Vegas Raiders (+4000)
23. Chicago Bears (+5000)
24. Miami Dolphins (+10000)
25. Detroit Lions (+8000)
26. Cincinnati Bengals (+17000)
27. New York Giants (+10000)
28. New York Jets (+15000)
29. Jacksonville Jaguars (+30000)
30. Washington (+30000)
31. Cleveland Browns (+5000)
32. Carolina Panthers (+15000)
Week 1 Stock Watch
Stock Up: Seattle Seahawks
Wow. While most probably had the Seahawks getting the better of the Falcons, their 38-25 triumph was surgically precise—even by Seattle's standards.
It was MVP behavior from Russell Wilson, who had 322 passing yards and added 29 rushing. He had as many touchdown throws as incompletions (four), and his 88.6 completion percentage seems impossibly high considering he connected on throws of at least 17 yards to five different receivers.
"Just being himself," Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett remarked. "He's a premier player in this league for a reason."
Seattle's defense didn't have the strongest debut (Matt Ryan passed for 450 yards and a pair of scores), but it's worth noting the Seahawks had allowed just 12 points through three quarters.
They looked scary good, and Wilson looked as potent as any quarterback in this league. If you weren't mentioning the Seahawks in your Super Bowl LV discussions, this is your signal to start.
Stock Down: Cleveland Browns
Woof. Like the Seahawks, the Browns didn't officially do something unexpected. They were projected to lose to the Ravens, and they did.
But anyone hoping to find reasons for optimism after last season's 10-loss disappointment were once again left lacking.
The Browns didn't just lose; they were bulldozed by a 38-6 count. Their first drive ended with a Baker Mayfield interception, their first of three turnovers on the day. Their kicker, Austin Seibert, missed his only two attempts: a 41-yard field goal and an extra point. Their punter, Jamie Gillan, lost a fumble on a disastrous fake-punt call inside of their 30-yard line.
"We have to be concerned about the Browns," WKYC's Jim Donovan wrote. "You cannot make the kind of mistakes they made and expect to win anywhere."
Losing to the Ravens doesn't mean the Browns are destined to have a bad year, but they will if they can't clean up their execution in a hurry.
Stock to Monitor: San Francisco 49ers
As their NFC West rival Rams can attest, the 49ers aren't guaranteed a chance to make up for their Super Bowl loss or even earn a playoff spot. They didn't spoil that with Sunday's 24-20 loss to the Cardinals, but it quietly upped their difficulty level by a not-insignificant degree.
"The loss to the Cardinals could prove costly in the difficult NFC West," ESPN's Nick Wagoner wrote. "The Niners went 5-1 in NFC West games last year, including two close victories against Arizona. But if they're going to replicate that, they have zero margin for error."
The Seahawks won 11 games last season, but they had to play the nine-win Eagles on the road in the divisional round because the 49ers won the NFC West title. No team can afford to give up ground in this race, especially with Arizona and L.A. starting with impressive victories (the latter over the Dallas Cowboys).
The 49ers still might have the division's (if not the conference's) most talented roster, which is why their stock isn't budging yet.
But all the questions around their wide receivers only grew more glaring in Week 1. Granted, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk weren't around, but still—San Francisco's wideouts combined for just four receptions and 41 yards. It doesn't matter how good George Kittle or this rushing attack is—the Niners can't calculate a winning formula with those numbers.
Daily Fantasy Football Week 1: Top Picks, Lineup Advice for DraftKings, FanDuel
Sep 11, 2020
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) works in the pocket against the New Orleans Saints during the first half of an NFL football game, Thursday, Nov. 28, 2019, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
The Kansas City Chiefs kicked off the 2020 NFL season on Thursday night with a 34-20 win over the Houston Texans. The game featured plenty of strong performances from fantasy veterans like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but it was also a coming-out party for Chiefs rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The former LSU star rumbled for 138 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.
While Edwards-Helaire has received plenty of fantasy buzz ahead of Week 1, he still provided managers with value in daily fantasy sports (DFS) formats.
If you missed out on playing Edwards-Helaire in Week 1, don't fret. We're here to help you recover with some top value picks for the remainder of the opening-week slate. Let's dig in.
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons: $6,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
While younger quarterbacks like Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson have become the headliners in fantasy, some elder vets still carry a ton of DFS upside. The 35-year-old Matt Ryan, for example, is consistently one of the most prolific passers in the league. He's passed for at least 4,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in each of the past nine seasons.
This is partially due to the Atlanta Falcons having star wideout Julio Jones at the forefront of its receiving corps, and whenever Jones is healthy, Ryan is a sound play in fantasy. With the Seattle Seahawks coming to town, he's a tremendous play this week.
While the Seahawks did add Jamal Adams to their secondary in the offseason, they still possess a pass defense that is above average at best. Seattle ranked 27th against the pass and 22 in points allowed last season while producing a mere 28 sacks.
Matt Schaub started in place of Ryan when these two teams met last season, and he ripped off 460 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception. Expect Ryan to have similar numbers in the yardage department with an extra score or two tacked on. At his price, he can be a huge DFS bargain.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: $6,800 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
The Las Vegas Raiders made some notable additions to their receiving corps in the offseason, drafting the likes of Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards and signing Nelson Agholor and Jason Witten. However, their offense is still likely to run through Josh Jacobs and the ground game.
Head coach Jon Gruden may even be extra motivated to showcase Jacobs early in the season.
"When he wasn’t Rookie of the Year, I think Jon [Gruden] took it personally. Jon was upset about it. I think he wants to make people realize they made a big mistake," The Athletic's Vic Tafur told CBS Sports.
Jacobs should have a chance to shine in Week 1 against a Carolina Panthers defense that ranked 29th in run defense and 31st in points allowed last season. The Panthers did draft defensive help in Derrick Brown and Yetur Gross-Matos, and defensive tackle Kawann Short returns after missing all but two games last season, but don't expect them to suddenly have a top-five unit.
Jacobs should feast this week, and he's going to make many a fantasy manager happy to have him rostered.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers: $6,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
The beauty of DFS is that managers can play to matchups. Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen isn't going to be a high-end play every week now that Tyrod Taylor is under center instead of Philip Rivers. However, he is still the team's No. 1 receiver and will be worth starting when the matchups are favorable.
The Chargers are on the road in Week 1, but they'll be visiting the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that ranked 21st against the pass and 25th in points allowed last season.
With rookie quarterback Joe Burrow leading an underrated Bengals offense, Cincinnati should put up enough points to prevent L.A. from going into closeout mode with the run game early. This should provide Allen with opportunities throughout the game.
Adding to the likelihood that Allen sees a heavy workload is the fact that fellow wideout Mike Williams is dealing with a shoulder injury and is expected to be a game-time decision.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons: $4,300 Draftkings, $5,300 FanDuel
We've already discussed the matchup the Falcons face against a lackluster Seattle defense. As well as Ryan's, it also boosts the DFS value of pass-catchers like Jones, Calvin Ridley and tight end Hayden Hurst. The latter, in particular, could be a sneaky-good sleeper play, as he's still being undervalued.
Hurst hasn't done much in his NFL career, but he's also been stuck behind Mark Andrews on the Baltimore Ravens depth chart. Now that he's in Atlanta, he should be the primary pass-catching tight end and one of Ryan's favorite targets.
Expect Hurst to produce numbers similar to those of former Falcons starter Austin Hooper. Hooper had 75 catches for 787 yards and six touchdowns last season, putting him firmly in the second tier of tight ends after Travis Kelce and George Kittle.
That's where Hurst is likely to settle too, though he isn't being valued like it heading into Week 1.
Week 1 NFL Picks: Predictions and Advice for Season-Opening Vegas Odds
Sep 10, 2020
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes runs during an NFL football training camp practice Monday, Aug. 24, 2020, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
The NFL is back, which makes this money-making time in the wagering world.
A full 16-game slate for Week 1 offers a wealth of opportunities for gamblers, and our crystal ball is the trick to help you capitalize on them.
After laying out the latest lines from DraftKings, we'll provide a score prediction for each contest and break down three of the best bets on the board.
NFL 2020 Week 1 Point Spreads
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at Washington
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Indianapolis Colts (-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3)
Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Los Angeles Rams
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at New York Giants
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Week 1 Score Predictions
Chiefs 37, Texans 28
Eagles 24, Washington 13
Patriots 20, Dolphins 17
Packers 28, Vikings 20
Colts 19, Jaguars 12
Lions 31, Bears 20
Raiders 23, Panthers 21
Bills 20, Jets 16
Ravens 38, Browns 17
Seahawks 23, Falcons 16
Bengals 17, Chargers 13
49ers 31, Cardinals 27
Buccaneers 38, Saints 35
Cowboys 34, Rams 27
Steelers 23, Giants 19
Titans 24, Broncos 13
Advice for Week 1 Odds
Play the Over in Texans-Chiefs
You should plan for pyrotechnics when the season kicks off with Patrick Mahomes going head-to-head with Deshaun Watson.
Oddsmakers have braced for big scoring numbers by setting an over/under of 54.5. Considering the caliber of quarterbacks, though, that isn't enough.
When these teams locked horns last season, both Mahomes and Watson put three touchdowns on the board. While the final tally barely cleared this number (55), the first two quarters provided 40 total points.
This is the gameweek's highest over/under, so it may not jump off the page at first glance. But when Mahomes and Watson are trading early scores Thursday night, you will be kicking yourself for not jumping on this wager.
Take the Bucs and the Points
The New England Saints look scary-good on paper, and they might have a better year than Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
But doesn't this seem like the kind of game Brady will get just to send a message that he still has plenty in the tank and can win without Bill Belichick? And it's not like all Tampa has is a new quarterback. It still features the most ferocious receiving tandem in the league (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), plus it scored major upgrades at tight end (Rob Gronkowski) and running back (Leonard Fournette).
"Me coming to Tampa made perfect sense," Fournette told reporters. "I felt like they had all the keys I needed and vice versa. I can help the team out, and also they can help me."
The Bucs might have the horsepower to race to an NFC South title, especially if their defense maintains the momentum it built late last season. The Saints may emerge the superior squad in the end, but our projections have a motivated Brady and the Bucs winning this game outright.
Grab the Seahawks and Give the Points
The Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons aren't in the same weight class.
That's what the standings said last season, when the Seahawks won 11 games and the Falcons managed just seven victories. That's what the eye test continues to conclude, as B/R's expert consensus rankings placed Seattle fifth and Atlanta 14th.
So why aren't Seahawks' backers forced to lay more than 1.5 points here? Great question. In fact, you should probably go lock in the wager before oddsmakers give this line some more thought.
It's a road game for Seattle, sure, but Atlanta won't have fans in the stadium. Matt Ryan is a good quarterback, but Russell Wilson is more dynamic and able to improvise when things break down. The Seahawks are simply the better team. So if you get them while giving up less than a field goal, you have to do it.
2020 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Strategy and Cheatsheet for Opening Rounds
Aug 27, 2020
Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey (22) runs against the New Orleans Saints during the first half of an NFL football game in Charlotte, N.C., Sunday, Dec. 29, 2019. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)
While February and March are prime mock-draft months for the NFL, August is mock-draft month for fantasy football. The difference is that while real-world mocks are largely for entertainment and prognostication purposes, fantasy mocks can actually help fantasy managers have better seasons.
No, mock drafts aren't going to tell you who is a safe pick or where the best sleepers lie. However, they can help determine how players are being valued and in what range certain positions or players should be targeted.
For example, let's take a look at Kansas City Chiefs rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. There's been plenty of buzz surrounding the former LSU star—especially after Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season.
"He's on pace to have a big year, to be our primary ballcarrier," Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said, per NBC Sports' Peter King.
This buzz would naturally lead most fantasy managers to value Edwards-Helaire highly. However, by analyzing mock drafts, managers can get a better idea of just how highly they'll need to pull the trigger on him.
While rookies rarely enter the first-round conversation, that's exactly where mock drafts are putting Edwards-Helaire.
Here, we'll examine a simulated mock draft—ran with FantasyPros' Mock Draft Simulator—to gauge where Edwards-Helaire and other top fantasy targets are being valued in the early rounds. We'll also provide a cheat sheet on the top position players to target—no quarterbacks, and we'll dive into that topic shortly.
2020 NFL PPR Mock Draft, Rounds 1-2
1.01: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
1.02: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
1.03: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
1.04: Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
1.05: Michael Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints
1.06: Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
1.07: Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
1.08: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
As you can see, Edwards-Helaire is being valued alongside perennial fantasy all-stars like Davante Adams and Julio Jones. This isn't entirely surprising as, based on his projected role, Edwards-Helaire could be in store for a special season.
Just consider that Kareem Hunt was the Chiefs' every-down back as a rookie in 2017. He finished with 1,327 rushing yards, 455 receiving yards and 11 total touchdowns. This is the sort of season that Edwards-Helaire could theoretically have.
What's a little more surprising is that there's a heavy early run on receivers in this mock. While target-dominant receivers like Michael Thomas, Jones and Adams are regularly first-round fixtures, pass-catchers like Tyreek Hill, Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Allen Robinson are being targeted early here.
Because of the depth at wide receiver—No. 2 wideouts frequently top the 1,000-yard mark—early runs usually involve running backs. Here, we have mock managers doubling up on pass-catchers early.
This isn't the worst strategy in points-per-reception (PPR) formats, though I recommend grabbing at least one running back in the first two rounds. You can usually find a No. 1 receiver in the third or fourth round—Amari Cooper went in Round 4 in this mock—but every-down running backs usually don't last that long.
Of course, it's important to be flexible and to not force picks based on what's typical. In this mock, for example, the team that grabbed Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins early also landed Todd Gurley and Mark Ingram II in Rounds 4 and 5, respectively.
I also don't recommend targeting a quarterback in the first two rounds, and even in Round 3, Patrick Mahomes and Lamaar Jackson are the only two sensible targets. I'm an advocate of waiting until Round 5 or later for a signal-caller, as you can usually land an elite fantasy passer there—Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott were both fifth-round selections in this mock—but you're far less likely to get an elite running back or receiver past Round 4.
In fact, you can usually land quality quarterbacks much later in the draft. Matt Ryan was a seventh-round pick in this mock and Aaron Rodgers lasted until Round 11!
Unless you're getting one of the big three—Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Zach Ertz—it's also wise to wait on a tight end. Darren Waller, who had 1,145 receiving yards last season, went in Round 6 of this mock. Austin Hooper, who had 787 yards and six scores in 2019, went in Round 12.
As is the case at quarterback, you can usually land starting-caliber tight ends in the middle rounds. The focus in Rounds 1 and 2 should be on running backs and receivers—though Kelce, Kittle and, to a lesser extent, Ertz can be valued as wide receivers thanks to their roles in their respective offenses.
2020 Fantasy Early-Round Cheat Sheet
Running Back
1. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
2. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
3. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
4. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City chiefs
6. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
7. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
8. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
9. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
11. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
12. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
13. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
14. Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
15. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Wide Receiver
1. Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
2. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
3. Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
4. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
7. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
8. D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
9. Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
Tight End
1. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
2. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
3. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
4. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
5. Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
2020 NFL Predictions: Fantasy Studs and Duds at Every Position
Aug 17, 2020
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) throws a pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 29, 2019, in Tampa, Fla. The Falcons won the game 28-22 in overtime. (Jeff Haynes/AP Images for Panini)
There's more to a successful fantasy season than a strong draft. Managers must work the waiver wire, shuffle lineups and figure out which matchups to exploit. However, in-season management can be made much easier by knowing which players to draft and which to avoid.
With this in mind, we are here to examine some potential studs and duds at key each fantasy position: quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end.
We'll try to avoid the obvious here—everyone knows that Lamar Jackson is worth drafting—and we'll dive into realistic expectations for each selection.
Quarterback Stud: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson are popular quarterback choices in fantasy, but Atlanta Falcons signal-caller Matt Ryan doesn't get nearly enough love. Ryan regularly produces on the stats sheet but has an average draft position (ADP) of just 79, according to FantasyPros.
This means that Ryan is trending as a sixth-round pick, and he's worth scooping up in that range. Just consider the fact that he gets to throw to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley and may have a sleeper tight end in Hayden Hurst.
Ryan threw for 4,466 yards and 26 touchdowns last season, and managers should expect similar numbers this season. Also, be sure to bump up your targeting range for Ryan if your league awards bonus points for 300-yard passing performances. Ryan had 11 such outings in 15 games last season.
Quarterback Dud: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson should be a viable fantasy starter this season, but his production probably won't sync up with his ADP of 42. No. 1 wideout DeAndre Hopkins is gone, and Watson was a bit of a boom-or-bust quarterback even with him in the lineup.
Watson only topped 300 passing yards three times in 2019, and he had four games with zero touchdowns.
Realistically, Watson should have a draft value closer to that of Ryan, and given the injury risk involved with receivers like Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, it wouldn't be a surprise if Ryan outperforms Watson—he had roughly 600 more passing yards in 2019, though Watson did produce 413 yards on the ground.
Running Back Stud: Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles second-year running back Miles Sanders holds an ADP of 19, but he has the potential to finish as one of the top running backs in fantasy this season. Just consider that he racked up more than 1,300 combined rushing and receiving yards last season while also splitting time with Jordan Howard.
Now that Jordan Howard is with the Miami Dolphins, Sanders should be in line for a featured-back role.
"I'm just excited to do whatever I can to help this team win, whether it's on the ground or if it's in the air," Sanders said, per Vaughn Johnson of the team's official website.
Sanders is a dangerous dual threat—he had 50 catches as a rookie—and he should have a good chance to top 1,500 scrimmage yards as the every-down back in Philadelphia.
Running Back Dud: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon has an ADP of nine. This is based on his final numbers of roughly 1,400 combined rushing and receiving yards.
Here's the problem, though: While Mixon has some PPR value—he had 35 catches in 2019—the Bengals also have Giovani Bernard in the backfield, and he's likely to steal some of the receiving work. Also, while Mixon racked up 1,137 rushing yards last season, he averaged a good-not-great 4.1 yards per carry.
Mixon's final numbers were based largely on volume, and it's unlikely that the offense is going to run through him now that Joe Burrow is in town. Mixon is still a viable starter, but he shouldn't be a first-round target.
While the hype that surrounded the Cleveland Browns last season has long been forgotten, the fact that Jarvis Landry is a solid fantasy receiver shouldn't be. Even with Cleveland's offensive struggles in 2019, Landry finished with 83 catches, 1,174 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
These are terrific numbers for a receiver who can be had in the fifth or sixth round, which is where Landry is trending. He currently holds an ADP of 67.
Landry should be a premier WR2 target, especially in PPR formats. He has caught at least 81 passes in each of his six NFL seasons.
Wide Receiver Dud: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
New Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs was a 1,000-yard receiver in each of the past two seasons. However, those campaigns were with the Minnesota Vikings and not with inconsistent Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
While Allen has flashed promise and has a heck of a throwing arm, he also completed just 58.8 percent of his passes. Buffalo ranked 26th in passing yards for the season. Additionally, the Bills have a receiver who will steal deep-threat looks from Diggs in 1,000-yard man John Brown.
With an average draft position of 58, Diggs could disappoint several fantasy owners this season.
Tight End Stud: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
Hurst is more of a sleeper than a surefire stud—he has an ADP of 131. However, he's joining a potent passing attack, working with a future Hall of Fame quarterback and taking on a role that made Austin Hooper a Pro Bowler in each of the past two seasons.
Hurst might even outperform Hooper, who had 787 yards and six touchdowns last season.
"They actually upgraded at the position by trading for Hayden Hurst," Senior Bowl director and ESPN analyst Jim Nagy tweeted. "If Hurst were in this year's draft, he'd be the first TE selected."
If you're looking to add a low-risk, high-reward player at tight end, Hurst is probably the draft target for you.
Tight End Dud: Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
Hooper left the Falcons for the Browns in free agency. While he will still likely be a starting-caliber fantasy tight end, he isn't likely to see the same production he did last year. Cleveland has tight end David Njoku on the roster, and the two are likely to split time under new head coach Kevin Stefanski.
Minnesota Vikings tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. each had fewer than 400 receiving yards under Stefanski last season.
Additionally, Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield will be getting the ball to the likes of Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Even if Njoku weren't on the roster, Hooper would likely see a dip in targets.
Most of the time, these teams sneak up on us. Before we're ready to acknowledge that a dark horse has become a legitimate contender, that club's resume often speaks for itself...
Michael Thomas Is Setting Records, but Julio Jones Is the NFL's Best WR
Aug 4, 2020
Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) lines up against the Arizona Cardinals during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 13, 2019, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
Julio Jones is a likely Hall of Famer. Michael Thomas set the single-season reception record last year. They're both incredible wide receivers.
Jones is slightly better.
Sure, Thomas was voted the fifth-best player and top receiver by his peers in the NFL Network's Top 100 countdown. Jones finished just 11th in the balloting and third among receivers, with DeAndre Hopkins eighth overall and second among receivers. Not to quarrel with the ultra-scientific Top 100 balloting procedure—players scribbling a bunch of names at their lockers like they are picking the high school homecoming court—but the countdown got things wrong. And with all due respect to Hopkins (the third-best receiver in the NFL and the best contested-catch target), as well as Tyreek Hill (fastest), Chris Godwin (best up-and-comer), Odell Beckham Jr. (most talented, frustrating, and best source of copy) and Allen Robinson II (most likely to make Christian Hackenberg, Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky look like real quarterbacks), the battle for the title of the best receiver in the NFL is a two-man race between Thomas and Jones.
To find out why Jones owns a slight edge over Thomas, let's break down their 2019 seasons using the statistical information at Sports Info Solutions and other sources.
Part 1: Raw Data
Michael Thomas led the league in targets (185), receptions (149) and yards (1,725). Jones finished second in targets (157), sixth in receptions (99) and second in yards (1,394). Thomas outscored Jones nine touchdowns to six. Jones averaged 14.1 yards per reception; Thomas 11.6. Thomas and Jones finished first and second in receiving first downs with 91 and 77.
Thomas led the NFL in Football Outsiders' DYAR metric, while Jones finished seventh. Thomas caught 80.5 percent of the passes targeted for him, a shockingly high rate usually reserved for running backs who catch nothing but screens and swing passes. Jones caught just 63.1 percent of his targets, a strong but unspectacular figure.
Thomas is coming off one of the most remarkable seasons in NFL history, so it's no surprise he blows the field away in terms of raw totals and basic analytics. Jones finished second to Thomas in many categories, but it was usually a distant second.
Of course, we all know Thomas catches lots and lots of short passes, while Jones is an all-purpose receiver and dangerous deep threat. For Jones to make up ground on Thomas, his advantage on throws down the field and in other situations will have to be significant.
Part 2: Air Yards
Let's break down Thomas' and Jones' numbers by how far their passes traveled in the air. Here are their breakdowns on passes zero to 15 yards downfield:
Julio Jones
105 targets (6th)
70 receptions (8th)
715 yards (9th)
6 touchdowns (tied for 5th)
52 1st downs (tied for 2nd)
Michael Thomas
153 targets (1st in NFL)
125 receptions (1st)
1,305 yards (1st)
7 touchdowns (tied for 3rd)
74 1st downs (1st)
Even if Thomas had not been targeted for a single deep pass last year, he would still have led the league in receptions and finished fourth in yards! Jones is by no means a slouch on short passes, especially if you filter out short-pass-gobbling tight ends: He ranked sixth in receptions and seventh in yards among wide receivers.
Now, here are their breakdowns on passes 15-plus yards down the field:
Julio Jones
52 targets (1st)
26 receptions (1st)
672 yards (2nd)
0 touchdowns
25 first downs (1st)
Michael Thomas
31 targets (25th)
22 receptions (3rd)
487 yards (14th)
1 touchdown
22 first downs (3rd)
Detroit's Kenny Golladay led the NFL in yards on deep passes (759) and finished second in first downs on deep passes (23).
Thomas holds his own as a deep threat, in part because he was effective on medium-length, 15-20-yard passes. Jones possesses a significant yardage edge, partly because he was tasked with challenging defenses on traditional "bombs" more often. On passes 25-plus yards down the field—the truly deep stuff—Jones made seven receptions on 17 targets for 245 yards, while Thomas caught three of just four targets for 110 yards. A difference of four receptions is a big deal when each nets around 30 yards.
So Jones wins this category, but Thomas clearly does a lot more than just catch quick hitches. For Jones to rank ahead of Thomas, he must do more than just haul in a few extra bombs.
Part 3: Third and Fourth Downs
Let's see how Thomas and Jones stack up when their teams need a third- or fourth-down conversion:
Julio Jones
Targets: 47 (tied for 3rd)
Receptions: 32 (tied for 2nd)
Yards: 493 (2nd)
First downs: 27 (2nd)
Touchdowns: 2
Michael Thomas
Targets: 44 (tied for 7th)
Receptions: 32 (tied for 2nd)
Yards: 387 (8th)
First downs: 24 (tied for 4th)
Touchdowns: 1
Cooper Kupp led the NFL in third-down targets (52) and receptions (37). Jones and Thomas finished tied in receptions, but Jones had a small but significant edge in first downs and yards. Thomas had a higher catch rate (71.1 percent to 68.0) and conversion rate (61.7 to 54.5) on third downs, but a much higher percentage of Jones' targets than Thomas' came in high-leverage situations.
Interestingly, Jones was more effective than Thomas on 3rd- and 4th-down-and-short: 18 first down catches for 250 yards for Jones with five or fewer yards to go; 14 first downs on 15 catches for 182 yards for Thomas. Jones' experience may give him an advantage on short conversions, or we may just be carving the data up a little too finely. Either way, Thomas may have better rate stats on third downs, but Jones has better bulk stats and is expected to do more in high-leverage situations, which in itself is illuminating.
Part 4: The Red Zone (Thomas Strikes Back!)
You probably know Jones is legendary among fantasy gamers for his end zone-is-lava tendencies, and that red-zone passing struggles have cost the Falcons playoff games. So you shouldn't be shocked to learn Thomas has an edge over Jones as a red-zone target. Let's examine how big that edge is:
Julio Jones
Targets: 17 (16th)
Receptions: 12 (10th)
Yards 63 (outside the top 20)
Touchdowns: 5 (tied for 12th)
First downs: 8 (tied for 8th)
Michael Thomas
Targets: 26 (1st)
Receptions: 20 (1st)
Yards: 179 (1st)
Touchdowns: 8 (tied for 1st)
First Downs: 14 (1st)
Baltimore's Mark Andrews and Detroit's Marvin Jones Jr. tied Thomas with eight red-zone touchdowns. Jones actually finished second to teammate Austin Hooper in red-zone targets (18) and touchdowns (six) for the Falcons. That said, Jones' red-zone numbers are better than his reputation suggests, and the Falcons' deeper corps of receiving targets nerfs his numbers a bit.
Move the ball up to the 10-yard line, and Thomas' advantage evaporates: He caught just four passes inside the 10 on nine targets for four touchdowns, while Jones caught seven passes on eight targets for five touchdowns. So, Thomas has the edge when catching short slants when there is room to maneuver, while Jones may have a tiny advantage when it's time to go up and get it in traffic. Or we're carving the numbers too finely again. Either way, Thomas clearly wins this category, but it's not quite a blowout.
Part 5: The "Um … Actually" Arguments
Drew Brees is a better quarterback than Matt Ryan, which contributes to Thomas' record-breaking numbers, right? Not really, because Teddy Bridgewater played five-plus games for the Saints last year, and Ryan is reliably among the league's top 10 quarterbacks and had an excellent season.
Jones shared targets last year with Pro Bowl tight end Hooper, Calvin Ridley and former Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman, while the Saints passing game funneled mostly through Thomas and Alvin Kamara. So Thomas' numbers are artificially inflated, right? Not really: After all, not having to share much of the load means Thomas doesn't have a complementary threat at wide receiver to draw away downfield coverage.
What's undeniably true is that Thomas' and Jones' statistics are shaped by their quarterbacks and schemes. Brees and Bridgewater are high-accuracy short passers, and Thomas and Kamara are their best weapons by far, so Thomas got about a dozen highly catchable short passes per game. Jones is the top target in a loaded vertical offense that's always playing catch-up because the defense is terrible, so his rate stats are weaker but his yards per catch are higher. But grading Jones or Thomas on some sort of curve based on their supporting casts isn't appropriate.
That said, parsing the data makes it clear how many of Thomas' catches come, say, on first down and within five yards of the line of scrimmage (a league-high 26 catches for 191 yards in that situation; Jones went 12-54). Such "long handoff" receptions aren't exactly fluff, but they are the type of plays most teams spread among multiple receivers.
That "replaceable" production is the final piece of our argument.
Part 6: Conclusion
Thomas may be the greatest short-reception target in NFL history. But short receptions are easy to scheme and generate, and receivers who are effective on shorter routes are relatively easy to find. The marginal value of Thomas' short receptions is not as large as his raw totals suggest. Jones, meanwhile, is an excellent receiver on shorter passes and is at least even with Thomas when it comes to a handful of critical situations, including 3rd-and-short or pass attempts near the goal line.
Jones has been one of the best all-around receivers in the NFL for nearly a decade. His career average of 15.2 yards per catch ranks sixth among active receivers, and the players ahead of him (DeSean Jackson, Josh Gordon, Kenny Stills, Mike Evans and T.Y. Hilton) have far fewer career receptions. Therefore, Jones may be the best deep threat of his generation, and deep threats who can stay consistently healthy and with the program are incredibly rare, giving Jones high marginal value because of his difficult-to-replicate production. Thomas, meanwhile, puts up solid numbers on 15-20-yard passes but cannot seriously be considered a "deep threat" because he is not used that way.
Thomas is younger and will obviously be better in a few years. He's a better fantasy option because of his high reception totals and Jones' low touchdown rates (which appear to be much more of a statistical quirk than a shortcoming). But if you need a go-to receiver to win one big game in 2020, chances are you would select the one who has earned a lifelong A grade in stretching the field and a B-plus on short routes over someone who gets an A+++ in the latter category but a B at best in the former.
