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SEC Championship 2020: Final Odds, Preview, Prediction for Alabama vs. Florida

Dec 19, 2020
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass as Michigan defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson (97) rushes during the second half of the Citrus Bowl NCAA college football game, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2020, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass as Michigan defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson (97) rushes during the second half of the Citrus Bowl NCAA college football game, Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2020, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Up until a week ago, the SEC Championship Game could have been billed as one of the games of the season. 

Saturday's contest between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators could still earn that title, but the hype around the game diminished a bit when the SEC East champion suffered its second loss in Week 15. 

Alabama's dominance throughout its SEC schedule and Florida's recent defeat are reflected in the odds for the clash at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Nick Saban's Crimson Tide are a 17-point favorite against the seventh-ranked team in the country, and based off what we saw from Florida's defense in the defeat to the LSU Tigers, a margin of victory of that size is possible for the top-ranked squad. 

          

SEC Championship Game Odds

Spread: Alabama (-17)

Over/Under: 74.5

Money Line: Alabama (-1000; bet $1000 to win $100): Florida (+600; bet $100 to win $600)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

      

Preview

The disparity on the moneyline may be more indicative of how Alabama is viewed in comparison to Florida. 

The two SEC division winners are separated by six positions in the College Football Playoff rankings, but the Gators have been given little chance to leave Atlanta with the victory. 

Alabama won its last six trips to the SEC Championship Game. Its last defeat at the event occurred in 2008 against a Florida squad led by Tim Tebow and coached by Urban Meyer

Dan Mullen and Kyle Trask are not the coach-quarterback combination that Florida had 12 years ago, and they are coming off a performance that did damage to their national reputation. 

Florida was favored by 24 points to beat LSU at home and it lost outright. The team's second loss of the season likely cost it a shot at the playoff. 

The Gators allowed 418 total yards to a LSU offense led by a freshman quarterback. The damage to its defense could be much worse with Mac Jones leading an experienced Alabama offense against it. 

Alabama averages 49.5 points and 537.8 yards per game, both of which are significantly higher than Florida's totals. The Gators also allow 44 more total yards per game in comparison to the SEC West champion.

In Florida's two meetings with Top 25 foes, it conceded 69 points to the Texas A&M Aggies and Georgia Bulldogs. 

Unless the Gators undergo a transformative turnaround on the gridiron on Saturday, they are going to allow a large amount of yards to Alabama.

No defense has been able to contain Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith, as the Alabama offense put up over 40 points on all but one of its opponents. 

The only way Florida can keep pace with Alabama is if Trask and Kyle Pitts match its offensive production, but the lack of a dominant running back, like Harris, could be its downfall. 

The Gators do not have any players with more than 100 carries or 500 rushing yards. No Florida player had more than eight rushes against LSU.

If Florida fails to dominate in both aspects of the offensive game, it could be subjected to a few short drives, especially if the Alabama defense takes Pitts away.

The Gators may have a chance to cover the 17-point spread in the fourth quarter, but not even Texas A&M or Georgia could remain close with the Crimson Tide for four quarters.

Prediction: Alabama 49, Florida 27

         

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com

   

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One week remains until the 2020 Heisman Trophy race officially ends, and Alabama quarterback Mac Jones is leading the way. For nearly a month, Jones and Florida quarterback Kyle Trask have shared front-runner status...

SEC Championship 2020: Alabama vs. Florida Breakdown, Predictions

Dec 14, 2020
Florida quarterback Kyle Trask (11) throws a pass as LSU linebacker Andre Anthony (3) rushes during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020, in Gainesville, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
Florida quarterback Kyle Trask (11) throws a pass as LSU linebacker Andre Anthony (3) rushes during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020, in Gainesville, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Who knew a single shoe could take the shine off the SEC Championship Game? 

When Florida defensive back Marco Wilson tossed an LSU player's cleat 20 yards downfield in the fourth quarter of Saturday night's game—eventually leading to a game-winning field goal for the Tigers—every last bit of hope the Gators had of making the College Football Playoff went with it. 

The loss deflates some of the intrigue around Saturday's title game in Atlanta, but the Gators are still in contention for a New Year's Six bowl game and have a chance to play spoiler to Alabama's undefeated season and CFP aspirations.

Even with a loss to the Gators, though, it's hard to believe Alabama—the most dominant team in the country this season—would miss the playoff completely. 

Ahead of the showdown, we're breaking down the key matchups that will decide who walks out of the Mercedes-Benz Stadium with the SEC championship trophy in hand. 

        

Key Matchups

Alabama Offense vs. Florida Defense

The Crimson Tide are arguably the only team in the country with two legitimate Heisman contenders in quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver DeVonta Smith.

They have connected 83 times this season for 1,327 yards and 15 touchdowns, and Smith might have made his case as the best player in the country, regardless of position. 

Alabama's other skill players are no slouches, either. Running back Najee Harris has rushed for 1,083 yards and 22 touchdowns, and six others have at least 10 catches on the season. Only North Carolina has scored more touchdowns this season, and the Tide's 537.8 yards per game are the fifth best in the Football Bowl Subdivision. 

The Gators' defense, meanwhile, hasn't exactly set the world on fire, but it hasn't been awful, either. It has held four opponents under 20 points, but this weekend's loss to LSU, in which they gave up 37 points and 420 yards of offense, showed how vulnerable it can be. 

Unlike most teams Alabama has faced this season, Florida has the offensive horsepower to keep this game competitive, but the Gators will have to make enough stops to keep the Tide from hanging 60 on them.

           

Florida Offense vs. Alabama Defense 

Even with Alabama's vaunted passing attack, there has been no more potent throwing offense in the country than Florida's this season.

After a stellar junior season in which he threw 25 touchdowns, quarterback Kyle Trask has been on a completely different level in 2020, throwing for 371 yards per game, 40 touchdowns and just five interceptions. 

The 22-year-old has a bevy of weapons, including All-American tight end Kyle Pitts, who has reeled in 11 touchdowns on 36 catches, and do-it-all wideout Kadarius Toney with nine touchdowns of his own. Even more mind-boggling than that is the offensive balance the Gators possess, with eight players amassing more than 240 yards from scrimmage this season. 

On the other side, Alabama boasts a good—though not elite—defense that ranks 27th nationally in total yards allowed.

The Tide are, arguably, most vulnerable against the pass, but they are still only giving up 227 yards and one passing touchdown per game. They haven't faced an offense with nearly the level of weapons Florida possesses, though, and if Trask can find time in the pocket, he'll be able to dissect Alabama's secondary. 

        

Prediction

As it always does, Alabama will show up in a big way for the SEC Championship Game. The Tide haven't lost in one since 2008, and this year won't break that trend. Alabama 42, Florida 31. 

             

Follow Keegan on Twitter @ByKeeganPope. 

SEC Championship Game 2020: Early Preview, Predictions for Alabama vs. Florida

Dec 13, 2020
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) gets ready to run a play against Arkansas during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) gets ready to run a play against Arkansas during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)

The Alabama Crimson Tide come into the SEC Championship Game as the conference's lone hope to reach the College Football Playoff.

That scenario came into play Saturday, when the Florida Gators suffered their second loss of the regular season to the LSU Tigers.

Undefeated Alabama resides on top of the playoff rankings and would secure the top seed by beating the Gators in Atlanta.

Since 2009, Nick Saban's team has not lost in its six SEC Championship Game appearances, and given how dominant it looked this season, it is hard to argue against a seventh title happening.

                    

SEC Championship Game Information

Date: Saturday, December 19

Start Time: 8 p.m. ET 

TV: CBS 

Live Stream: CBSSports.com or CBS Sports app

      

Preview

Alabama has been the most dominant team in the FBS all season.

The Crimson Tide have won each of their 10 games by double digits, and they have rarely faced a challenge since beating the Georgia Bulldogs on October 17.

In its past six games, the SEC West champion outscored its opponents 301-53, and it held three of those opponents beneath three points. Bama was in cruise control in its regular-season finale, beating the Arkansas Razorbacks 52-3 in a game wherein it put up 38 first-half points.

Mac Jones, Najee Harris and DeVonta Smith form the best offensive trio in the nation, and it will be hard for the Gators to slow them down. On Saturday, Jones completed 24 of his 29 passes, Harris ran for a pair of scores and Smith returned a punt 84 yards for a touchdown.

Jones completed more than 70 percent of his pass attempts in eight games and has only thrown three interceptions. Harris is a 1,000-yard rusher, and Smith proved he could take over games by himself in the December 5 win over the LSU Tigers, during which he had 200 first-half yards.

Florida's defense has not been impressive in the games that have mattered most. It allowed 78 combined points in its losses to LSU and Texas A&M and let up 28 points to Georgia. If the Gators are susceptible to a high point concession again, they could leave Mercedes-Benz Stadium with three losses.

With Heisman Trophy contender Kyle Trask and tight end Kyle Pitts in tow, the Gators have a one-two punch that could do more damage to Alabama's defense than any previous opponent. But if Alabama matches anything Florida throws at it, the SEC Championship Game could be a coronation of the Tide as the No. 1 team in the country.

If Alabama wins, it will likely be by double digits since few contenders have kept up with the team during its six-game winning streak in Atlanta. Four of those six wins were by double digits, and three came against the Gators.

Prediction: Alabama 49, Florida 28

                        

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith Guide No. 1 Alabama to 52-3 Win over Arkansas

Dec 12, 2020
Alabama punt returner DeVonta Smith (6) returns a punt for a touchdown against Arkansas during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)
Alabama punt returner DeVonta Smith (6) returns a punt for a touchdown against Arkansas during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)

Top-ranked Alabama finished an undefeated regular season Saturday with a 52-3 victory over Arkansas at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas.

The Crimson Tide, who'd already locked up a berth against Florida in next week's SEC Championship Game, improved to 10-0. They've outscored opponents 495-168 and will be a sizable favorite over the Gators as they look to secure another College Football Playoff appearance.

Arkansas dropped its fourth straight game to finish the campaign 3-7. The Razorbacks played one of the nation's toughest schedules with six contests against ranked opponents, including four meetings with foes ranked eighth or higher at the time they faced off.

              

Notable Performances

QB Mac Jones (BAMA): 24-of-29 for 208 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

QB Feleipe Franks (ARK): 8-of-10 for 90 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT; sacked 8 times

RB Brian Robinson Jr. (BAMA): 54 rushing yards, 3 TD

RB Najee Harris (BAMA): 46 rushing yards, 2 TD

RB Jase McClellan (BAMA): 95 rushing yards, 1 TD

WR DeVonta Smith (BAMA): 22 receiving yards; punt return TD

DL Christian Barmore (BAMA): 2 sacks

LB Will Anderson Jr. (BAMA): 2 sacks

LB Bumper Pool (ARK): 13 tackles

              

DeVonta Smith Belongs Alongside Mac Jones in Heisman Race

Smith, and the rest of Alabama's playmakers, have been overshadowed by Jones' success for most of the season. While the standout quarterback certainly deserves a place in the final Heisman conversation, the senior wide receiver also belongs in the discussion.

The Tide struggled for most of the first quarter, showing little explosiveness on offense and defensively allowing an overmatched Razorbacks squad to move the ball.

One play changed the game's entire vibe: Smith took in a punt deep in his own territory, made a couple of Hogs miss and sprinted past the rest for an 84-yard touchdown return.

It was reminiscent of two weeks ago when Alabama was still locked in a scoreless tie with No. 22 Auburn after 10 minutes before the 22-year-old Louisiana native burned the Tigers' secondary for a 66-yard touchdown reception. The Tide rolled from there as he later added a 58-yard score.

Smith entered Saturday's game with 80 receptions for 1,305 yards, which led the nation, and 15 touchdowns. He also added a rushing score.

His success shouldn't come as a surprise. He led the Crimson Tide in receiving yards last year (1,256) despite playing alongside two first-round draft picks, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, and he's fully embraced the role as the unquestioned top target in 2020.

The Heisman race may ultimately come down to which quarterback leads his team to the SEC championship next weekend, either Jones or Florida's Kyle Trask. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence also remains in contention for college football's top individual honor.

Perhaps a game-changing play or two by Smith would be enough to swing the pendulum in his favor, and he'd be just as deserving of a winner as any of those signal-callers.

               

Arkansas Offense Lacked Creativity Needed for Upset Bid

It takes a special performance to win a game as a four-touchdown underdog, and it's likely Alabama was going to walk away from Saturday's game with the win regardless of Arkansas' game plan.

That said, the lack of creative thinking within the Razorbacks' offensive attack Saturday left a lot to be desired. It was a basic, straightforward approach that had little chance of success against a Tide defense littered with future NFL players.

The best example came on their field-goal drive midway through the first quarter.

With 1st-and-goal from the 8-yard line, the Hogs were called for a false start and then threw three passes with Feleipe Franks, who struggled throughout the contest. The third-down play from the 9-yard line was thrown one yard beyond the line of scrimmage and had no chance to find the end zone, even if a catch was made.

If the Razorbacks were going to win the game, they needed a touchdown on that drive. A 3-6 team doesn't beat a national championship contender with field goals.

Arkansas was able to get a turnover on downs on the ensuing drive, and it's fair to wonder if the pressure starts to mount on Alabama if the Hogs are up 7-3 with the ball.

Running some trick plays, a little more misdirection and making a few calls that haven't already been put on tape this year wouldn't have guaranteed the Razorbacks could have stayed competitive for 60 minutes because of the Tide's sizable talent and athleticism advantage.

But it would have at least given the underdogs a chance and potentially injected a spark into an offense that otherwise lacked energy in their season finale.

            

What's Next?

Alabama and Florida will meet in the SEC title game next Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on CBS.