College Football Picks: Week 16 Predictions for Every Game

Conference championships will take center stage on the final weekend of the college football regular season.

All 10 leagues are slated to contest their title tilts Friday or Saturday. Three of the conferences—the ACC, Big Ten and SEC—will draw the most attention because of the impact the results will have on the College Football Playoff.

Though those games headline the slate, there are scattered contests in the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC and the final leg of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy between Air Force and Army.

Rankings are based on the Associated Press Top 25.

MWC Championship Game: Boise State (5-1) vs. No. 25 San Jose State (6-0), 4:15 p.m. ET

Led by former Texas A&M and Arkansas quarterback Nick Starkel, San Jose State is one of 2020's best stories. Perhaps it's fitting the first-time Mountain West Conference championship qualifier will go up against perennial power Boise State. This should be a relatively low-scoring game considering the pace of both offenses.

Boise State's defense has played better lately, but the Broncos have leaned on non-offensive touchdowns. San Jose State has only five giveaways and ranks 21st in kickoff coverage. If Boise State can repeat its magic (two kickoff return touchdowns, two punt return touchdowns, a fumble return touchdown and a blocked field goal return touchdown), that would change the game. It feels improbable to expect, though.

Prediction: San Jose State 24, Boise State 20

No. 24 North Carolina State (8-3), Idle

The Wolfpack are awaiting their bowl matchup.

MAC Championship Game: Ball State (5-1) vs. No. 23 Buffalo (5-0), 7:30 p.m. ET Friday

After falling to Miami (Ohio) on Nov. 4, Ball State has ripped off five straight wins. But can the Cardinals hold up defensively? They've struggled against the pass, and Buffalo's Kyle Vantrease is averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. And he's not even the focal point. Running backs Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks Jr. have combined for 1,535 yards and 23 touchdowns. This will be a major challenge for a Ball State defense ranked 81st in yards allowed per snap.

Prediction: Buffalo 45, Ball State 28

No. 22 Liberty (9-1), Idle

Liberty does not have a bowl tie, but several Power Five teams have opted out, so the Flames should play another game.

No. 21 Texas (6-3), Idle

The Longhorns are awaiting their bowl matchup.

AAC Championship Game: No. 20 Tulsa (6-1) at No. 6 Cincinnati (8-0), 8 p.m. ET

For prediction, see No. 6 Cincinnati.

No. 19 Miami (8-2), Idle

The Hurricanes are awaiting their bowl matchup.

No. 18 Iowa (6-2), Idle

The Hawkeyes are awaiting their bowl matchup.

Sun Belt Championship Game: No. 17 Louisiana (9-1) at No. 9 Coastal Carolina (11-0), 3:30 p.m. ET

For prediction, see No. 9 Coastal Carolina.

No. 16 North Carolina (8-3), Idle

The Tar Heels are awaiting their bowl matchup.

Big Ten Championship Game: No. 15 Northwestern (6-1) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (5-0), Noon ET

For prediction, see No. 3 Ohio State.

No. 14 BYU (10-1), Idle

The Cougars are awaiting their bowl matchup.

Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon (3-2) at No. 13 USC (5-0), 8 p.m. ET Friday

Because of coronavirus protocols, Washington (3-1) will not be able to play and Oregon will instead take on USC in a mostly even contest with one significant outlier. The Ducks have a strong secondary but have also committed 11 turnovers. And while the Trojans defense is unspectacular, the unit has 15 takeaways. If Oregon protects the ball, the result can swing its way. But the season-long trend is not favorable.

Prediction: USC 31, Oregon 24

Big 12 Championship Game: No. 12 Oklahoma (7-2) vs. No. 8 Iowa State (8-2), Noon ET

For prediction, see No. 8 Iowa State.

SEC Championship Game: No. 11 Florida (8-2) vs. No. 1 Alabama (10-0), 8 p.m. ET

For prediction, see No. 1 Alabama.

No. 10 Georgia (7-2), Idle

The Bulldogs are awaiting their bowl matchup.

Sun Belt Championship Game: No. 17 Louisiana (9-1) at No. 9 Coastal Carolina (11-0), 3:30 p.m. ET

Coastal Carolina handed Louisiana its only loss of the season, so the Ragin' Cajuns will be out for revenge. They've had an extra week to prepare for this highly efficient offense, too. But do you want to pick against the Chanticleers? They continually find ways to win, whether it's via a late score or defensive stand. Fatigue is a real concern—especially on defense—but Coastal Carolina can ride its offense to a league title.

Prediction: Coastal Carolina 38, Louisiana 34

Big 12 Championship Game: No. 12 Oklahoma (7-2) vs. No. 8 Iowa State (8-2), Noon ET

Iowa State edged Oklahoma 37-30 on Oct. 3. The Cyclones, however, hosted that contest and have performed better at home. They always play the Sooners close and should again, but Oklahoma has quietly put together a terrific defensive stretch, ceding 78 points in the last five games. That improvement combined with running back Rhamondre Stevenson's availability this time around makes OU the favorite.

Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Iowa State 27

No. 7 Indiana (6-1), Idle

The Hoosiers are awaiting their bowl matchup.

AAC Championship Game: No. 20 Tulsa (6-1) at No. 6 Cincinnati (8-0), 8 p.m. ET

Two outstanding defenses will take the field at Nippert Stadium, so the question is whether the offenses are comparable. Cincinnati's primary edge is quarterback Desmond Ridder, who's rushed for 526 yards and 11 touchdowns. Tulsa's Zach Smith, conversely, is a typical drop-back passer, and the Golden Hurricane have managed only four yards per carry.

Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Tulsa 17

No. 5 Texas A&M (7-1) at Tennessee (3-6), Noon ET

Can Texas A&M make the playoff? Its penchant for sneaking past inferior teams is concerning from a rankings perspective because it's easy justification for keeping Notre Dame, Ohio State and Clemson ahead of it. Beating up on a bad team in Tennesee will convince no one, but the Aggies need a comfortable win to boost their perception.

Prediction: Texas A&M 38, Tennessee 14

ACC Championship Game: No. 4 Clemson (9-1) vs. No. 2 Notre Dame (10-0), 4 p.m. ET

On Nov. 7, Notre Dame clipped Clemson 47-40 in double overtime. But the Fighting Irish are preparing for a far healthier team, and it's not simply Trevor Lawrence. The Tigers didn't have defensive tackle Tyler Davis or linebackers Mike Jones Jr. and James Skalski in that contest. It's no surprise Notre Dame rushed for 208 yards. Those players, plus the loss of Notre Dame center Jarrett Patterson (foot surgery), will be the keys to Clemson's flipping the result.

Prediction: Clemson 31, Notre Dame 24

Big Ten Championship Game: No. 15 Northwestern (6-1) vs. No. 3 Ohio State (5-0), Noon ET

Complain if you like about the Big Ten's bending its rules, yet Ohio State—based on results—is the proper representative from the East division. Northwestern has an outstanding defense that is allowing just 4.5 yards per snap (fifth in the nation). But on offense, the Wildcats are mildly threatening at best. Unless they can attack the Buckeyes vertically, Ohio State will pull away.

Prediction: Ohio State 34, Northwestern 17

SEC Championship Game: No. 11 Florida (8-2) vs. No. 1 Alabama (10-0), 8 p.m. ET

Counting out Florida after its loss to LSU would be foolish. Kyle Trask has been carving up defenses all season, and Alabama isn't immune to that possibility. But on the opposite side, the Gators have had no answers for competent passing games. Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith and John Metchie III will carry the Crimson Tide. Florida's hopes of an upset hinge on containing Alabama's pass rush because the Gators are unlikely to run the ball efficiently.

Prediction: Alabama 48, Florida 34

Conference USA Championship Game: UAB (5-3) at Marshall (7-1), 7 p.m. ET Friday

This outcome rests on the throwing arm of Marshall's Grant Wells. While helping the Thundering Herd start 7-0, he tossed 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Then in a 20-0 loss to Rice on Dec. 5, he threw five picks. Marshall allowed just 213 yards, though, and leads the nation with 4.1 yards allowed per snap. UAB has played only once since Halloween—a 21-16 win at Rice on Saturday—so expectations are a bit unclear. But Marshall should be able to lean on its elite defense.

Prediction: Marshall 27, UAB 13

Air Force (3-2) at Army (8-2), 3 p.m. ET

Army overwhelmed Navy on Saturday, setting up a winner-take-all showdown with Air Force. Both run defenses are superb, so this should be a low-scoring game. The Black Knights offense, however, has steadily dropped in production and efficiency in the last two months. The Falcons offense, meanwhile, is averaging 6.2 yards per snap and improving. Air Force will win the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy for the 21st time.

Prediction: Air Force 21, Army 14

Minnesota (3-3) at Wisconsin (2-3), 4 p.m. ET

When coronavirus issues led to a cancellation, it appeared the 113-year streak of Minnesota-Wisconsin would end. But this additional Big Ten week allowed the Paul Bunyan's Axe rivalry to continue. That's the detail that qualified this as a "best" matchup. The Badgers have fallen sharply since an impressive start and lost three straight, and the Golden Gophers have an average offense and atrocious defense. It'll probably be an ugly affair in Madison, where Wisconsin will carve out a defense-driven win.

Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 14

Nebraska (2-5) at Rutgers (3-5), 4 p.m. ET Friday
Prediction: Rutgers 24, Nebraska 19

Florida State (3-6) at Wake Forest (4-4), Noon ET
Prediction: Florida State 34, Wake Forest 31

Washington State (1-2) at Utah (2-2), 1:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Utah 27, Washington State 23

Mississippi (4-4) at LSU (4-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Ole Miss 45, LSU 38

Missouri (5-4) at Mississippi State (2-7), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Missouri 34, Mississippi State 17

Illinois (2-5) at Penn State (3-5), 5:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Penn State 38, Illinois 14

Stanford (3-2) at UCLA (3-3), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Stanford 24, UCLA 20

Arizona State (1-2) at Oregon State (2-4), 10:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arizona State 33, Oregon State 30