Giannis Antetokounmpo

Keeping Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee is clearly the top priority for the Bucks, and Monday's reported move may help do just that.  

Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium reported Milwaukee acquired Jrue Holiday from the New Orleans Pelicans for Bledsoe, George Hill and draft compensation. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski noted the Pelicans will receive three future first-round picks and multiple pick swaps in the deal.

Marc Stein of the New York Times suggested the trade mortgaging so many future assets implies the Bucks "must believe" Giannis will sign his five-year supermax offer prior to the Dec. 21 deadline.

"The last two weeks have been filled with chatter that" he plans to do so, per Stein.

"He has about a month to decide on his supermax," ESPN's Brian Windhorst said of Antetokounmpo on the Lowe Post podcast prior to the Holiday trade (h/t RealGM). "I think he's going to decide a lot sooner. And I think there's a lot of warmth in Milwaukee right now. I'll just leave it at that."

According to The Athletic's Sam Amick, the Bucks' confidence on Antetokounmpo signing an extension was "high" even before Monday night's reported deals.

Frankly, what Giannis decides will likely determine the course of the next decade or so for the Bucks.

On one hand, they will be title contenders for years to come if the two-time MVP decides to sign the supermax. His presence alone makes the Bucks one of the best teams in the league, and he is also someone who could attract free agents looking for an opportunity to play for a ring.

However, the future will look quite bleak if he leaves following the 2020-21 campaign.

Not only is Milwaukee not exactly seen as a destination for other superstars if he isn't there, but the draft capital the Bucks gave up to acquire Holiday would also put a dent in rebuilding efforts. Even Holiday has a player option for 2021-22 and could depart following the upcoming season, which would leave the team with even fewer difference-makers.

That is a stark difference between the two scenarios, which makes it all the more notable that Tim MacMahon of ESPN reported an executive from another team said of the Holiday trade, "Giannis had to approve it. That's all that matters."

If playing with Holiday makes Antetokounmpo more likely to sign the supermax, giving up so many future assets will absolutely be worth it.

The Milwaukee Bucks are all-in.

On Monday, Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium reported the Bucks were trading Eric Bledsoe, George Hill and draft compensation to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for Jrue Holiday.

ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski added more details, noting New Orleans will receive three future first-round picks and multiple pick swaps in the deal.

Just more than an hour later, Milwaukee was back at it. Wojnarowski reported the Bucks acquired Bogdan Bogdanovic and Justin James from the Sacramento Kings in exchange for Donte DiVincenzo, Ersan Ilyasova and D.J. Wilson.

That is a lot to give up for Holiday and Bogdanovic, but the Bucks have one of the best rosters in the Eastern Conference as a result. Here is what the updated depth chart and roster may look like after the blockbuster trades:

• PG: Jrue Holiday, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Frank Mason III
• SG: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Jrue Holiday, Kyle Korver, Sterling Brown, Khris Middleton
• SF: Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown, Kyle Korver, Justin James
• PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Thanasis Antetokounmpo
• C: Brook Lopez
  

There is no doubt Holiday is a talented player who can provide veteran leadership on both sides of the floor for a championship contender.

The two-time All-Defensive selection averaged 19.1 points, 6.7 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 steals while shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 35.3 percent from three-point range in 2019-20 and can generate looks for himself, hit from the outside when Antetokounmpo draws double-teams and defend the opponent's best perimeter playmaker.

Meanwhile, Bogdanovic is coming off a season in which he averaged 15.1 points while shooting 44.0 percent from the field, including 37.2 percent from beyond the arc. The 28-year-old is a career 37.4 percent three-point shooter. Like Holiday, Bogdanovic will help take some attention away from Antetokounmpo.

Still, these trades are about more than just acquiring Holiday and Bogdanovic.

Antetokounmpo is set to enter free agency following the 2020-21 campaign, and convincing him to stay is the biggest priority for the Bucks. Wojnarowski and Marc Stein of the New York Times suggested this trade was part of those efforts:

As for the actual lineup in 2020-21, there is plenty to like as it's currently constructed.

Giannis is arguably the top player in the league, and there is plenty of shooting around him for when opponents form a wall around the basket to cut off his penetration.

Bledsoe is also someone who has struggled in the postseason of late, so Holiday is likely a better option in what is shaping up to be a championship-or-bust campaign.

Still, the Bucks could use some depth in the backcourt behind Holiday and Bogdanovic, especially if they plan on going small at times with Antetokounmpo as the de facto big man. Fortunately for them, they still have plenty of time in the offseason to acquire just that.

When Giannis Antetokounmpo was preparing for the 2013 NBA draft, he did not envision himself as a ball-dominant player in the mold of Kobe Bryant.

Speaking to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski in a special edition of the Woj Pod, Antetokounmpo discussed a meeting with the Atlanta Hawks during the draft process that showed his predilection for being a pass-first player.

"[Then-Hawks assistant coach Kenny Atkinson] had his laptop, had these Kobe clips. It was Lakers vs. Atlanta playing, and he told me, 'Come. Let's watch some clips.' I'm like, 'OK. Cool.' And I'm looking. He's like, 'What would you do in this situation?' Pass. 'What would you do in this situation?' Pass. 'What would you do in this situation?' Pass. He's like, 'You like to pass, huh?' Like, yeah! I'm a basketball player. There's five people guarding Kobe. I'm like, 'pass the ball!'"

It didn't take long for Giannis to develop some Kobe-esque tendencies. Antetokounmpo has increased his scoring average in each of his seven NBA seasons, averaging 29.5 points during his second consecutive MVP campaign in 2019-20.

As for the Hawks, they never got a chance to show Antetokounmpo whether they liked his answers. The Bucks selected Giannis at No. 15 in the 2013 draft, two picks ahead of Atlanta.

The Hawks took Dennis Schroder at No. 17.

Any moves the Miami Heat make this offseason will reportedly be done with an eye toward pursuing Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo in the near future.

According to ESPN's Zach Lowe, the Heat have decided that they "won't do anything that jeopardizes their chances with Antetokounmpo."

Lowe noted that Miami has interest in re-signing Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder, as well as signing All-Star center Bam Adebayo to a contract extension. The Heat may wait until next offseason to extend Adebayo, though, since it would allow them to maximize the salary-cap space they would need to sign Giannis.

Antetokounmpo is set to enter the final year of his contract in 2020-21, and if he decides to test the market, he would be one of the biggest prizes in the history of NBA free agency.

One factor that could help the Heat when it comes to wooing Giannis is the fact that his agent, Alex Saratsis of Octagon, is also Adebayo's agent.

Provided the Heat can find enough money to make both Giannis and Adebayo happy, perhaps the Saratsis clients would be interested in teaming up to form an Eastern Conference superpower.

Giannis and the Bucks entered the 2019-20 season as the favorites to represent the East in the NBA Finals after posting an NBA-best record of 60-22. The Bucks had the NBA's best record again last season at 56-17, but playoff success eluded them once more.

After falling to the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2018-19, the Bucks were eliminated by the Heat in the second round of the playoffs last season.

If Giannis takes a if-you-can't-beat-'em-join-'em approach, then the Heat make plenty of sense as a landing spot.

Even without Antetokounmpo, the reigning two-time NBA MVP, the Heat reached the most recent NBA Finals on the strength of All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Adebayo, plus a supporting cast that included Dragic, Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn and others.

The Heat took two games from the Los Angeles Lakers in the 2020 NBA Finals, and adding a player of Giannis' caliber could be what they need in order to create a dynasty.

While Antetokounmpo has enjoyed individual and team success with the Bucks during the regular season, they have not put a team around him capable of winning when the games matter most.

Perhaps that will change in 2020-21 and Giannis will be compelled to re-sign with Milwaukee, but if he decides he can't win championships there, Miami likely gives him the best opportunity to win multiple titles.

Will the return of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson catapult the Golden State Warriors back to the top of the Western Conference? Not with their roster of young, developing players.

Curry (hand) and Thompson (knee) sat out most or all of the Warriors' 15-win season, forced to watch from afar as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers won the title in the Orlando bubble. With Kevin Durant in Brooklyn with the Nets, Andre Iguodala in Miami with the Heat and Shaun Livingston retired, the Warriors need to build a new supporting cast around their dynamic backcourt.

The team did acquire forward Andrew Wiggins before the trade deadline from the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Warriors also got the No. 2 pick in the November 18 draft for their disappointing 2019-20 campaign. But their most valuable tool for adding talent this offseason may be the sizable trade exception generated when they sent Iguodala in trade to the Memphis Grizzlies on July 7, 2019.

The Limitations

The most the Warriors can take back in trade is a player earning up to $100,000 more than Iguodala's 2019-20 salary; the exact limit is $17,285,185.

The Iguodala trade was one of several complicated moves to orchestrate the sign-and-trade with the Nets for D'Angelo Russell (in return for Durant). The Warriors later moved Russell to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Wiggins and a 2021 first-round pick (top-three protected, unprotected in 2022).

Acquiring a player via sign-and-trade triggers a hard cap, which limited the Warriors to spending no more than $138.9 million this past season. That cap would typically expire on June 30, followed by a five-day league moratorium through July 5. Under normal circumstances, the Warriors would have had two days (July 6-7) to utilize the Iguodala trade exception's full value, precisely a year from the original trade with the Grizzlies.

Unfortunately, the NBA calendar is a bit of a mess. The 2020-21 year has no start date just yet, but Golden State will have at least a day or two to use the Iguodala trade exception before it expires. The Warriors can use it before the end of 2019-20 but can only add about $6.6 million before reaching the hard cap.

For the sake of illustration (using nonsense examples), on the day of the draft, the Warriors could legally trade the No. 2 pick to the New Orleans Pelicans for Jaxson Hayes ($4.9 million for 2019-20) but not for Lonzo Ball ($8.7 million) because of the hard cap.

They could agree instead to select at No. 2 (under the direction of the Pelicans), waiting until the end of the 2020-21 moratorium to execute a deal. Ball's $11 million for next season easily fits within the Iguodala trade exception, but the Warriors would need to rely on faith that Ball will pass a physical. If he fails, they would either be stuck with the player they took for the Pelicans or accept the trade even if Ball is not healthy.

The Needs

The Warriors still have their trio of stars in Curry, Thompson and Green. They also have Wiggins, set to earn $94.7 million over the next three years. Outside of Kevon Looney, their role players don’t have any championship experience (Jordan Poole, Marquese Chriss, Ky Bowman, Eric Paschall, Damion Lee, etc.).

"If they like Wiggins, then you get two or three veterans [with the trade exception]," a former Western Conference executive said. "If they don’t, go get a guy that better fits your system like Eric Gordon, Danny Green, JJ Redick or Joe Ingles."

The team could use a starting center and depth at nearly every position, especially at point guard. Golden State projects to be well over the luxury tax next season. The team will only have the taxpayer mid-level exception to spend (~$5.7 million) outside of minimum contracts.

That might be enough to lure a serviceable center like Tristan Thompson, but that may not be nearly enough to give the Warriors the kind of depth they need to compete at the highest level in the Western Conference. 

They may also get an important contributor at No. 2 in the draft.

"I would take James Wiseman [from Memphis] or Deni [Avdija from Israel] if they like Wiggins," he continued.

Other Top Trade Exception Targets

The Warriors' trade exception is large enough to acquire any single player on the Atlanta Hawks' roster, including center Clint Capela ($16 million for 2020-21). Golden State could also try to swap picks with the Hawks, giving No. 2 for No. 6 with one or more of Atlanta's emerging young players as a target (John Collins, Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, etc.).

The Boston Celtics might look to trade Enes Kanter if he opts into his contract's final year at $5 million. Boston, facing luxury taxes and roster count issues, could choose to compensate the Warriors for taking on the veteran center.

If the Phoenix Suns are looking to enter the offseason with sizable cap space, they may trade Kelly Oubre Jr. and his final year at $14.4 million. Would swapping down with the Chicago Bulls from No. 2 to No. 4 make sense in return for guard Tomas Satoransky, who will earn $10 million next season?

It’s unclear if any of the veterans listed by the executive will be available and at what price. Gordon is at $16.9 million for 2020-21 with the Houston Rockets, Green at $15.4 million with the Lakers, Redick $13.0 million with the Pelicans and Ingles $10.9 million with the Utah Jazz.

Others to consider: Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets at $11.5 million for next season), Josh Richardson (Philadelphia 76ers, $10.9 million), Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis Grizzlies, $15 million), Will Barton (Denver Nuggets, $13.7 million) and Dennis Schroder (Oklahoma City Thunder, $15.5 million), among others.

A combination from the New York Knicks in Taj Gibson ($9.5 million) and Reggie Bullock ($4.2 million) would provide veteran depth. If Evan Fournier opts into his final year with the Orlando Magic, his $17.15 million also fits within the exception.

Eyes on Giannis

The NBA has several hot-button issues to deal with, notably when and how will next season be played, and how will the league and players deal with the loss of income when games resume without fans. But once that business is taken care of, all eyes will turn to the Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The two-time NBA MVP can accept a supermax extension from the Bucks in the $235 million range. Per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, Antetokounmpo met with Bucks governor Marc Lasry in September, and they agreed to continue talks at a later date.

If Antetokounmpo chooses not to commit long-term with Milwaukee, the team can play out his contract with hopes he decides to stay with a new deal (also at the supermax), but the Bucks risk losing him as a free agent. Or the franchise could look to trade him first.

The Warriors would undoubtedly package Wiggins with the No. 2 pick, the Minnesota pick and just about everyone on the roster not named Curry, Thompson or Green. That may not be enough for the Bucks, but the Warriors can also use their trade exception to help get Eric Bledsoe off Milwaukee's books.

Bledsoe will earn $16.9 million for next season ($54.4 million over the next three years, though the final season is only $3.9 million guaranteed).

Does that make an Antetokounmpo trade more palatable to the Bucks? They'll first do everything in their power to get their All-Star to stay. It might take a big push from Antetokounmpo toward the Warriors (he shares an agent with Curry in Octagon's Jeff Austin), which is still a lot to assume.

Bank on the Warriors making overtures to the Bucks, if they haven't already.

Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter, @EricPincus.