Predicting the NBA's Top 5 Stars over the Next 5 Seasons

LeBron James has been the face of the NBA for nearly two decades. Even at 35, he still had enough left to secure his fourth NBA title in 2020.

At some point, though, he has to give way to the league's younger talent. Though he's looked ageless for some time, decline is inevitable. He's just over four years away from his 40th birthday. Between now and then, someone will pass him in the league's hierarchy.

Consider this top five an endeavor to predict who that will be.

Over the course of the next half-decade, these will be the best players in the league.

Plenty of statisticians, engineers and generally smart people around the internet have devised ways to statistically project what NBA players will do in the future, but looking forward will always rely on subjectivity.

That means this list is far from absolute. There are plenty of players in the league who could conceivably be one of the five best over the next five seasons. Back in 2015, no one could've predicted that Nikola Jokic would be sixth in wins over replacement player over the next five seasons.

Someone could come out of nowhere again. Veterans near the top of the league may have more staying power than anticipated. Some of those currently knocking on the door could be closer to knocking it down than we realize.

This slide serves as an acknowledgment of those possibilities and a hedge against the bet of the top five.

Players we could certainly argue should be included beyond this point include (in alphabetical order):

• Bam Adebayo
• Devin Booker
• Stephen Curry
• Kevin Durant
• Joel Embiid
• James Harden
• Kyrie Irving
• Kawhi Leonard
• Damian Lillard
• Donovan Mitchell
• Ja Morant
• Ben Simmons
• Jayson Tatum
• Karl-Anthony Towns
• Zion Williamson
• Trae Young

Now, let's get into the top five.

This slideshow opened with a discussion of LeBron's imminent decline, but the last 12 months made it clear he won't leave the mountaintop without a fight.

In his age-35 season, LeBron just led the NBA in assists per game and averaged double figures in that category for the first time in his career.

His postseason box plus/minus ("...a basketball box score-based metric that estimates a basketball player's contribution to the team when that player is on the court," according to Basketball Reference) was 10.6. Anything over 10 is considered "peak Jordan or LeBron"-level play.

His regular-season box plus/minus of 8.4 was higher than his mark in 2018-19 and the best on record for a player in an age-35 (or older) season.

His basic numbers—25.3 points, 10.2 assists, 7.8 rebounds, 2.2 threes and 1.2 steals—would be ridiculous for a star at any age. They should be unbelievable for someone transitioning into his late 30s, but it may be safe to say we take LeBron's production for granted.

He's been doing this so long that we've almost grown numb to it.

Even if he's not No. 1 over the course of the next five seasons, it's still hard to imagine him sliding out of the top five.

No one in NBA history totaled as many points, rebounds and blocks as Anthony Davis through their age-26 seasons. And you have to drop the qualifiers quite a bit just to add Shaquille O'Neal.

Now, with one title already to his name, AD is about to enter the bulk of his prime. At some point in the next five years, he'll more than likely take the torch from LeBron to lead the Lakers.

Davis' 26.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 blocks, 1.5 steals and 1.2 threes per game in 2019-20 suggest there isn't anything he can't do. But what's really scary is that he can still get better in a number of areas.

Post-ups aren't likely to be a staple of many offenses for the foreseeable future, but AD still used 5.1 possessions per game there in 2019-20. And his 0.9 points per possession on post-ups ranked below the 45th percentile. There's one area for improvement.

He can also get more effective from three-point range. He attempted a career-high 3.5 per game, but his 33.0 three-point percentage was well below average.

If Davis improves his efficiency in the post and from three, while continuing to develop as a playmaker, there's a good chance he makes this placement look low.

On the other end of the floor, Davis is already threatening No. 1 status. He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2020 and has led the league in blocks per game three times.

With LeBron setting up easy looks for him on offense for the next few years, Davis will be able to devote plenty of energy to anchoring L.A.'s defense.

Having Nikola Jokic above AD will surely ruffle some online feathers, but consider the following.

Jokic is two years younger. The two big men have the same box plus/minus over the last three seasons. Davis' team was actually worse with him on the floor in 2019-20, while the Denver Nuggets were significantly better with Jokic. And, perhaps most striking, users voted overwhelmingly for Jokic when his numbers were in a blind comparison against AD's.

Davis obviously has the edge on defense, but Jokic's shortcomings there are wildly overblown. He's never posted a below-average defensive box plus/minus. And in all five of his seasons, the Nuggets have allowed fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

He struggles when switched onto guards on the perimeter, and he'll never lead the league in blocks, but Jokic is generally in the right place, takes up plenty of space inside, dominates the defensive glass and has quick hands.

He's tied for third in NBA history among 7-footers in steal percentage.

But again, defense isn't where Jokic distinguishes himself. That happens on the other end, where he's one of the game's best offensive engineers and passers.

Few players across league history possess the kind of vision and passing ability Jokic has. That he runs the offense from the center position allows the Nuggets to essentially play positionless everywhere else.

He can hit the three (33.8 percent from there in the regular season and 41.6 in the playoffs), dominate in the post and even do damage in the mid-range.

Jokic is a truly dominant offensive player who actually provides value on the other end too. Over the last two seasons, the 25-year old has averaged 23.4 points, 12.0 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.2 threes and 0.8 blocks per 75 possessions.

Much has been made of Giannis Antetokounmpo's struggles from beyond the arc over the course of his career. And there's something to the criticism. His career percentage of 28.4 isn't even close to average.

When you examine the rest of his game, though, it becomes clear that's about his only weakness.

Over the last two seasons, in which Giannis won two MVPs, he's led the league in box plus/minus and averaged 31.1 points, 14.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.2 steals per 75 possessions.

Those are basically prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar numbers, plus more playmaking. And, like Jokic, Antetokounmpo is just 25 years old.

There's a reason "just wait till he adds a reliable jump shot" is such a common refrain. If that happens, Giannis will be utterly unstoppable.

Even without that, he led the NBA in points per 75 possessions in 2019-20 and got to the rim seemingly at will throughout the regular season.

His ability to guard multiple positions, swipe the ball and protect the rim on the other end made him the third player in league history to win MVP and Defensive Player of the Year in the same campaign (joining Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon).

The distinction between Giannis and Luka Doncic is similar to the one discussed with AD and Jokic. Giannis will provide more value on defense over the next five years, but Luka is on track to be one of the greatest offensive focal points of all time.

Like Stephen Curry and James Harden before him, Luka looks like the type of player you could drop onto just about any roster in the league and get a top-five offense.

In 2019-20, Luka's second season in the league, he led the Mavericks to the highest average for points per 100 possessions in league history. When he was on the floor, that number was a whopping 118.1.

Though coach Rick Carlisle and the shooters on the roster deserve credit for that mark, there's no doubt who the driving force behind it was.

Luka averaged 31.1 points, 9.5 assists and 3.0 threes per 75 possessions, with an above-average 58.5 true shooting percentage. Those numbers would be absurd in any era from a player of any age or experience level.

Doncic is 21.

It's impossible to know what kind of career forecast that production even gives us, because we've never seen raw numbers like this pouring in this early.

Like others on this list, there's still plenty of room for improvement too.

Luka is not afraid to shoot the three, and his form suggests he'll be fine, but his current career percentage of 32.1 is well below average. Improving that and his free-throw percentage takes Luka to another level.

He can also be better on defense. No one should expect Kawhi Leonard- or Paul George-level peskiness on the perimeter, but just using his 6'7" size and being in the right spots could go a long way.

If he's average on that end and continues his meteoric rise on offense, this spot on the list is well within his reach over the next five years.