National signing day should be a relatively anticlimactic time for Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans. That sentiment figures to change in the next cycle, but USC's 2022 recruiting class is incredibly thin in volume...
Former Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams Announces Transfer to USC
Feb 1, 2022
Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams (13) passes during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Texas Tech, Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021, in Norman, Okla. Oklahoma won 52-21. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)
Caleb Williams may have shifted the balance of power in the 2022 College Football Playoff race by announcing his transfer to USC, where he'll reunite with former Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley.
Williams confirmed the decision to ESPN's Pete Thamel on Tuesday.
"I wanted to go somewhere I
thought would provide me with the best development both on and off
the field. ... Getting to know Coach Riley and
gaining familiarity with his offense definitely played a part in my
selection, as well as already knowing some [of] the guys on the team," he said.
After closing out the 2021 regular season with a loss to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma experienced an exodus.
Riley left for USC, taking defensive coordinator Alex Grinch with him. Spencer Rattler, a preseason Heisman Trophy favorite, transferred to South Carolina. Jadon Haselwood and Austin Stogner departed as well.
That's to say nothing of the recruits who decommitted after Riley took the USC job.
While not unexpected, Williams' announcement Jan. 3 that he was entering the transfer portal turned heads:
The freshman quarterback left the door open to returning to the Sooners, explaining how entering the portal was the only way he could speak with other schools and remain within NCAA rules.
Wide receiver Theo Wease withdrew from the portal in December, opting to remain with Oklahoma.
Still, first-year head coach Brent Venables found himself having to recruit Williams back to Norman. Venables and athletic director Joe Castiglione issued a joint statement saying, in part, "We believe OU provides Caleb the best opportunity to develop as a player and realize his goals for college and beyond":
Statement from Joe Castiglione and Brent Venables on today’s announcement by Caleb Williams: pic.twitter.com/qGHlDqIDp2
Speaking with Thamel after Williams' announcement, his father, Carl Williams, laid out his son's priorities:
Carl Williams: “Professional development. We want Caleb to be ready to play when he becomes a pro. You go to college to get prepared for your career. His chosen career path is professional football. We want him to be prepared for when that time comes.”
With the NCAA's relaxing its transfer rules and allowing players to have one freebie, situations like this are more common. But Williams was something of an anomaly.
Joe Burrow and Justin Fields left Ohio State and Georgia, respectively, because they didn't see a path to the starting role. Jalen Hurts exchanged Alabama's shade of crimson for that of Oklahoma because he had been eclipsed by Tua Tagovailoa.
With Rattler gone, Williams was the entrenched starter for the Sooners. His status for 2022 wasn't in doubt, and QBs don't typically bolt a blue blood when they're poised to run the offense.
Similarly, coaches generally don't get a second bite at the apple when they fail to land a top-ranked prep passer, especially one who has proved himself at the FBS level.
Rather than listing the Power Five programs that were likely to pursue Williams, it was probably quicker to name the ones that wouldn't.
The only teams that shouldn't be willing to throw their returning/incoming starters overboard if they have a chance to land Caleb Williams are Alabama and Ohio State, end of list.
Williams was the No. 2 quarterback in 247Sports' composite rankings for the 2021 class, and he lived up to the hype at Oklahoma. He threw for 1,916 yards, 21 touchdowns and four interceptions and ran for 442 yards and six scores.
Rattler's rapid fall at Oklahoma is a cautionary tale about the folly of preseason expectations, but Williams is as close to a sure thing as the Trojans could get at quarterback. Reaching the playoff is bound to be the bar for success with the 6'1" signal-caller on the roster.
Venables, meanwhile, is left scrambling to find a solution at quarterback.
Nick Evers is a 4-star recruit and the No. 10 QB in 2022, per 247Sports' composite rankings. Oklahoma might have to use the transfer portal for its own benefit to replace Williams since fans will anticipate the kind of results that have been the norm in Norman.
As soon as he entered the transfer portal, USC was the logical destination for Williams if he left Oklahoma. Few coaches are better suited than Riley to prepare quarterbacks for the next level, so a reunion made sense.
Former USC quarterback Jaxson Dart's transfer to Ole Miss was the proverbial canary in the coal mine as well.
Dart threw for 1,353 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions as a true freshman and seemingly would've thrived under Riley's tutelage. By choosing to leave the program, it stood to reason he questioned whether he had the inside track to start in 2022.
When Riley arrived at USC, many believed it was a home run hire that will return the Trojans to national prominence, albeit in a few years. By adding Williams, they might be a playoff contender right out of the gate.
While the transfer portal has no shortage of options, the group of immediate-impact players is much thinner. Most notably, three big-name quarterbacks are still undecided...
It's never too early to look ahead. Sure, the celebrations are roaring on after Georgia's 33-18 triumph over Alabama in Monday's CFP National Championship, but we don't have time ...
Caleb Williams to Enter Transfer Portal; Staying at Oklahoma 'Definitely' an Option
Jan 3, 2022
Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams (13) during the first half of the Alamo Bowl NCAA college football game against Oregon, Wednesday, Dec. 29, 2021, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Spencer Rattler may not be the only quarterback to transfer from Oklahoma before the 2022 season.
Caleb Williams, who took over as the starting signal-caller during the 2021 campaign after Rattler struggled with consistency, announced he will enter the transfer portal:
Williams explained "according to NCAA rules, the only way I can speak with other schools and see who may offer the best preparation and development for my future career is by entering the portal. Staying at OU will definitely be an option as I begin this process."
His father, Carl, spoke with Pete Thamel of Yahoo Sports and discussed what the family is looking for with this move:
Carl Williams: “Professional development. We want Caleb to be ready to play when he becomes a pro. You go to college to get prepared for your career. His chosen career path is professional football. We want him to be prepared for when that time comes.”
Williams notably highlighted the "sudden changes this season sent shockwaves through Sooner Nation and were really hard for the whole team" in his statement.
That is putting it mildly.
Oklahoma started the 2021 season with Rattler on the short list of realistic Heisman Trophy candidates, Lincoln Riley as its head coach and national championship aspirations. However, narrow wins over Nebraska, West Virginia, Kansas State, Texas and Kansas suggested the ceiling was limited, and losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State dropped the Sooners from the College Football Playoff discussion.
Rattler lost his starting job and transferred to South Carolina, Riley took the head coach position with USC, and the program hired Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables as the new head coach.
Venables already has a major recruiting battle on his hands before he even coaches a game when it comes to keeping Williams aboard as the starting quarterback.
A former longtime Sooners assistant coach, Venables and athletic director Joe Castiglione released a statement saying they respect Williams' decision but still "believe OU provides Caleb the best opportunity to develop as a player and realize his goals for college and beyond."
Statement from Joe Castiglione and Brent Venables on today’s announcement by Caleb Williams: pic.twitter.com/qGHlDqIDp2
Frankly, whether the Sooners can keep Williams or not will likely go a long way toward determining how their 2022 campaign unfolds.
He threw for 21 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding six touchdowns on the ground and is someone who can hurt opposing defenses with his arm and legs. Williams figured to be the face of the program for the immediate future, especially with Rattler gone, and the Washington D.C. prep star already started living up to the expectations that accompanied him as a 5-star recruit in the 2021 class, per 247Sports' composite rankings.
Losing him would be a major blow for a program looking to return to the CFP discussion next season.
While we patiently await the 2021 College Football Playoff and national championship, the upcoming slate of games provides a delightful appetizer to the main course of bowl season...
Caleb Williams Benched as No. 8 Oklahoma Upset by No. 13 Baylor's Dominant Defense
Nov 13, 2021
Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams (13) scrambles for positive yards against the Baylor during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Ray Carlin)
The No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners suffered their first loss of the season Saturday, falling to the No. 13 Baylor Bears 27-14 at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas.
Both teams struggled to get much going offensively for most of the day, and Oklahoma freshman quarterback Caleb Williams was held in check, finishing with 146 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions through the air, plus 17 yards and one score on the ground.
Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley replaced Williams with Spencer Rattler in the second half, although Williams returned in the closing minutes when Rattler proved ineffective.
While some offensive fireworks were expected, Baylor held Oklahoma to just 260 total yards, including only 78 on the ground.
Baylor's ground game dominated by comparison, as the Bears rushed for 296 yards and held the ball for 35:19, while Oklahoma only possessed it for 24:41.
By virtue of Saturday's victory, Baylor is 8-2 overall and 5-2 in Big 12 play, while OU is 9-1 overall and 6-1 in the conference.
The College Football Playoff committee was already down on Oklahoma because of its inability to dominate, and now that the Sooners have a loss, their chances at a CFP berth are likely gone.
Notable Stats
Gerry Bohanon, QB, BAY: 12/21 for 117 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT; 9 CAR for 107 YDS, 2 TD
Caleb Williams, QB, OU: 10/19 for 146 YDS, 0 TD, 2 INT; 10 CAR for 17 YDS, 1 TD
Spencer Rattler, QB, OU: 4/6 for 36 YDS, 0 TD, 0 INT
Abram Smith, WR, BAY: 20 CAR for 148 YDS
Kennedy Brooks, RB, OU: 13 CAR for 51 YDS, 1 TD
Tyquan Thornton, WR, BAY: 4 REC for 41 YDS, 1 TD
Williams Struggles Mightily in Oklahoma's 1st Loss
There was Heisman Trophy buzz surrounding Williams ahead of Saturday's clash with Baylor, but just like Oklahoma's national championship hopes, they went up in smoke.
The talented freshman never looked comfortable or in sync at any point during the game, as Baylor's swarming defense constantly gave him problems.
It started on the Sooners' second offensive drive when Williams was intercepted on an ill-advised throw in Oklahoma territory:
Williams had a great run for a first down on a 2nd-and-16 play late in the first half, but he had his hand stepped on by a Baylor defender while getting tackled:
Right hand is clearly bothering Caleb Williams as OU heads to halftime. Worth monitoring. Maybe we see a Rattler cameo today?
He appeared to be favoring his hand when entering the locker room, and he continued to struggle when he came back out for the second half.
After having been intercepted only once this season entering Saturday's game, Williams was picked off for a second time early in the third quarter with Oklahoma trailing 10-7:
Williams seemingly tried to throw the ball away but failed to get it out of bounds, thus stalling another OU drive.
After Williams nearly lost a fumble on a sack late in the third quarter, the Oklahoma fans present in Waco began chanting for Rattler to enter the game:
It was ironic, since OU fans chanted for Williams several weeks earlier, which led to Williams taking the starting job from Rattler.
Skip Bayless of Fox Sports was among those who weren't thrilled with Riley's decision to pull Williams:
WRONG WRONG WRONG. Lincoln Riley just made the mistake of the year, replacing a struggling Caleb Williams with preseason Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler. So much for Caleb's Heisman chances. I believe he would've snapped out of it in the 4th quarter. Caleb>>>>>>>Rattler.
The move did not pay dividends for Oklahoma, as Rattler played poorly and was ultimately taken out of the game in the fourth quarter.
Saturday served as a reality check for Williams and the Sooners team as a whole after Oklahoma had narrowly avoided several near-upsets earlier in the season.
The loss to Baylor cost OU a chance at a national title, but a Big 12 title remains possible if the Sooners can regroup.
Baylor Rides Defense, Running Game to Upset Win
All eyes were on Williams and the electric Oklahoma offense entering Saturday's game, but Baylor proved why it boasts one of the best defenses in college football.
The Bears were all over Williams and the Sooners from start to finish, forcing two turnovers and preventing OU from finding any type of rhythm throughout.
Baylor set the tone from Oklahoma's first drive of the game by forcing a three-and-out and then intercepting Williams on the second drive, as it held the Sooners to just seven points in the opening half.
The dominance of Baylor's defense carried over to the second half, as the Bears put consistent pressure on Williams and nearly forced a turnover deep in Oklahoma territory late in the third quarter on a strip-sack:
With Williams struggling and perhaps nursing a hand injury, Oklahoma turned to Rattler at the end of the third quarter in hopes of creating a spark.
That didn't happen, as the Bears continued to wreak havoc on the Oklahoma offensive line and sacked Rattler on third-and-long on his first drive to force a punt:
Before Oklahoma scored a touchdown late in the fourth quarter during garbage time, Sam Khan Jr. of The Athletic tweeted a breakdown of the ridiculous production Baylor's defense provided Saturday:
While defense was the driving force behind Baylor's biggest win of the season, the Bears' running game also thrived, especially in the second half when the team rushed for over 200 yards.
The defining offensive play of the game for Baylor came early in the fourth quarter with the Bears clinging to a 10-7 lead.
Running back Abram Smith dashed 75 yards down the field and into the Oklahoma red zone, setting the stage for a Baylor touchdown to extend the lead to 17-7:
Based on how well Baylor's defense was playing at the time, that was essentially an insurmountable lead, and it allowed the Bears to run as much clock as possible in the final quarter.
Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon largely struggled as a passer in the game, going just 12-of-21 for 117 yards with one touchdown and one pick, but Oklahoma couldn't handle him as a runner either, as evidenced by his 107 yards and two scores on the ground.
The Bears seemingly figured out the formula to beating Oklahoma and perhaps showed other teams the blueprint for the remainder of the season.
What's Next?
Baylor will attempt to continue rolling next Saturday when it goes on the road to face the unranked Kansas State Wildcats.
Meanwhile, the Sooners will look to bounce back from a devastating loss next Saturday when they host the unranked Iowa State Cyclones.
Spencer Rattler Replaces Caleb Williams at QB for Oklahoma vs. Baylor
Nov 13, 2021
Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler (7) warms up before an NCAA college football game against Texas Tech, Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021, in Norman, Okla. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)
After being benched early in the season because of on-field struggles, Spencer Rattler is back in at quarterback for Oklahoma.
The sophomore replaced Caleb Williams late in the third quarter of Saturday's game against Baylor. Williams was 8-of-17 for 84 yards and two interceptions before being benched.
Before head coach Lincoln Riley made the move, Sooners fans were chanting for Rattler to be put in the game.
Per Jason Kersey of The Athletic, Williams did have his throwing hand stepped on earlier in the game. It's unclear if his issues were related to an injury because of that incident.
Coming into Saturday, Williams had been playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in three games as the starter. The freshman was 56-of-73 for 875 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Williams threw more interceptions in three quarters against Baylor than he did in his first seven games combined.
Rattler was the Sooners' starting quarterback for the first six games of the season. He was completing 74.3 percent of his passes during that span but had three touchdowns and three interceptions in three games before being benched midway through an Oct. 9 contest against Texas.
The 21-year-old entered this season as one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. He was fantastic as a redshirt freshman in 2020 with a 67.5 completion percentage, 3,031 yards and 28 touchdown passes in 11 games.
Despite getting occasionally inconsistent play under center this season, Oklahoma (9-0) entered Saturday as one of four undefeated FBS teams (Georgia, Cincinnati, University of Texas San Antonio).
The Sooners are also ranked No. 8 in the College Football Playoff standings.
Per Jason Kersey of The Athletic, Williams did have his throwing hand stepped on earlier in the game. It's unclear if his issues were related to an injury because of that incident.
There is a time and place for long-winded analysis. But when you're trying to learn about the entire AP Top 25, hundreds of words on each ranked team might not be enjoyable to read...
Michigan State, Alabama or Oklahoma: Who Should Be in Top 4 of 1st CFP Rankings?
Oct 31, 2021
Michigan State's Kenneth Walker III celebrates his touchdown against Michigan during the second quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)
The selection committee for the College Football Playoff will be releasing its first Top 25 rankings of the 2021 season Tuesday night, and, buddy, there are going to be some arguments.
Not about Georgia at No. 1, of course. The Bulldogs were already the unanimous No. 1 team in the AP poll before squeezing the life out of Florida for a 34-7 victory on Saturday afternoon. Thanks to a Nakobe Dean pick six just before halftime, Georgia's defense/special teams has now scored four touchdowns while allowing its opposition to score just five. The Dawgs are officially in 2001 Miami (10 touchdowns scored against 12 allowed) and 2011 Alabama (five scored against nine allowed) territory of absurd dominance on D.
Beyond that, though, the order of Nos. 2-7—no matter what it is—will be highly controversial. Alabama, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Oregon all have an argument for debuting in the Top 4, but only half of them can do so.
Before we dive into the cases for and against each of those six teams, let's be sure to point out that—while certainly more important than the AP poll—these initial rankings still don't really matter.
When all four teams that debuted in the Top 4 actually made it into the playoff last year, that was very much the exception to the rule. In the first six years of the CFP, only 13 of the 24 national semifinalists debuted in the Top 4. The vast majority of them (21 of 24) did start in the Top 7, but Ohio State famously went from No. 16 to national champion in 2014. Oklahoma also vaulted from a starting spot at No. 15 into the Top 4 the following year.
And looking at it from the opposite direction, 2020 was the first time that there was not at least one team that finished outside the Top 10 after debuting in the Top 4. 2016 Texas A&M was the only one to actually drop all the way out of the Top 25, but there's typically at least one team that fades considerably in November.
In other words, if you're a fan of one of these teams that isn't in the Top Four on Tuesday night, there's still plenty of time to get there.
With that in mind, let's try to figure out what the selection committee will decide this week.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama QB Bryce Young
Case For: Ridiculously good offense, and that loss to Texas A&M isn't anywhere near as bad as it looked at the time.
Quarterback Bryce Young is a bona fide Heisman Trophy front runner, leading an offense that has averaged 45.9 points per game this season. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. took a few weeks to get into the zone, but he averaged 160.5 yards of total offense and 2.5 touchdowns per game in October.
Aside from the final three quarters of the road game against Florida, the Crimson Tide have been virtually unstoppable.
And that three-point road loss to the then-unranked Aggies? That hardly seems unforgivable now that A&M is thriving and has bounced back into the AP Top 15. At any rate, that loss is much less of an eyesore than Oregon's loss to Stanford.
Jumping out to that 35-0 lead over Ole Miss before cruising to a 21-point victory was an impressive best win, too.
Case Against: Already lost one game, and hasn't looked like the Alabama of yore.
The committee isn't going to compare 2021 Alabama to any other iteration of this program, but there's no question that this hasn't been quite a vintage Crimson Tide team as far as game control is concerned.
Not only did they lose to a team that already had two losses, but they were considerably less than dominant in the wins over Florida and Tennessee. They owned the first quarter of the former and the fourth quarter of the latter. However, a now-.500 Gators team out-played them over the final 45 minutes and a now-.500 Volunteers team went into Tuscaloosa and legitimately hung with Alabama through the first 45 minutes.
None of that will matter if they win out, but it could be a justification for slotting Alabama outside the initial Top 4.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Case For: Undefeated with a pair of road wins over Power Five programs
Plain and simple, Cincinnati did exactly what we've been waiting for a Group of Five team to do to make things interesting.
When UCF ran the table in both 2017 and 2018, it did so against an uninspired schedule. The Knights didn't play a single road game against a ranked team, and (excluding the bowl games) only faced two mediocre Power Five programs, beating 4-8 Maryland the first year and 7-7 Pittsburgh the latter year.
But Cincinnati went on the road against preseason No. 17 Indiana and preseason No. 9 Notre Dame, winning both of those contests by double digits. Indiana has since fallen apart for a 2-6 overall record, but that 24-13 win at Notre Dame is still one of the most impressive victories by any team in this entire season.
Not only that but both the Pac-12 (Oregon) and the ACC (Wake Forest) are already down to just one team with any argument whatsoever for a spot in the Top 15. Might as well put an undefeated Cincinnati in the Top 4 alongside the best team from each of the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12.
Case Against: Only one game against a remotely noteworthy opponent and hasn't looked good lately.
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - OCTOBER 30: Jerome Ford #24 of the Cincinnati Bearcats rushes for a touchdown as Angelo Anderson #3 of the Tulane Green Wave defends during the second half at Yulman Stadium on October 30, 2021 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by
As awesome as the road win over Notre Dame was, what is Cincinnati's second-best win now that it looks like Indiana isn't any good? The home win over UCF sans Dillon Gabriel? The season opener at home against 4-4 Miami-Ohio?
The Bearcats will eventually need to face a pretty good SMU team (Nov. 20), plus either a rematch with the Mustangs or a showdown with Houston in the AAC championship. But the overall schedule thus far isn't that great, and two games against SMU is nothing compared to what the rest of these contenders will face the rest of the way.
And while there's only so much Cincinnati can do about the strength of its schedule, it should have at least played well in the recent wins over Navy and Tulane.
Sure, they were both road games, but 2-6 Navy had the ball with a chance to tie in the closing minute while a 1-7 Tulane team with a terrible defense held the Bearcats offense in check. The latter was a 14-12 game at halftime, and Cincinnati didn't exactly flex its offensive muscles after the intermission with just one drive of more than 40 yards.
Style points are going to be crucial for Cincinnati to ultimately land in the playoff, and it hasn't gotten many as of late.
Michigan State Spartans
Case For: Last undefeated Big Ten team; just scored a massive win over AP No. 6 Michigan.
Let me first say how incredible it is that we're even having this conversation. At Big Ten media days in July, Michigan State was picked to finish in dead last in the Big Ten East, and Sparty was considerably behind both Rutgers and Maryland in that poll. Going from an expected seventh-place finish in their division to a certain spot in the current Top 7 is the type of thing that could make Mel Tucker a unanimous Head Coach of the Year.
Speaking of year-end honors, go ahead and lock in Kenneth Walker III for a spot among the Heisman finalists. The Wake Forest transfer was already leading the nation in rushing yards per game heading into a Week 9 gem against rival Michigan, in which he rushed 23 times for 197 yards and five touchdowns. He has been the heart and soul of the Big Ten's lone remaining unblemished team.
In addition to that come-from-behind 37-33 win over the Wolverines, the Spartans burst onto the scene in September with a 38-17 road win over then-AP No. 24 Miami. The Hurricanes are only 4-4 overall, but they do have wins over Pitt, NC State and Appalachian State, as well as close calls against North Carolina and Virginia. The committee is sure to view that as an impressive victory.
Case Against: Close calls against Nebraska and Indiana; major question marks in the secondary
The Spartans needed a Jayden Reed punt-return touchdown late in the fourth quarter at home against Nebraska just to force overtime and ultimately win that game. And against an Indiana team adjusting to a new starting quarterback (Jack Tuttle) in the middle of the season, Michigan State narrowly eked out a 20-15 victory, thanks in large part to a pick six of Tuttle in the first quarter.
Two close calls is better than the many that Oklahoma has had, and it's better than the losses that Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon have suffered. But for a team that did not have a win over a currently ranked opponent until that comeback win against Michigan, those razor-thin margins against two teams unlikely to even qualify for a bowl game were a bit concerning.
And even in that win over Michigan, Michigan State's Achilles' heel was on full display: less-than-mediocre pass defense.
The Spartans have a great pass rush, but they just allowed more than 400 passing yards against a Wolverines offense that had not previously topped 255 this season. MSU is now allowing 301.0 passing yards per game.
Granted, hemorrhaging passing yards on a regular basis never kept Oklahoma from reaching the playoff. But with so little separating No. 2 from No. 7 at this point, those defensive numbers against what wasn't a particularly daunting schedule prior to this weekend will be a major talking point for the committee.
Ohio State Buckeyes
COLUMBUS, OH - OCTOBER 09: Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson #32 reacts to scoring a touchdown during the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Maryland Terrapins at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on October 9, 2021.(Photo by Jaso
Case For:Offense is sensational and the defense appears to have improved a lot since mid-September.
At 49.3 points per game, Ohio State entered Week 9 as the highest-scoring offense in the country by a margin of more than a field goal per game.
C.J. Stroud was averaging well over 10 yards per pass attempt, TreVeyon Henderson was averaging nearly nine yards per rush attempt and each portion of the Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba three-headed receiving monster was well on its way to a 1,000-yard campaign.
Even on what ended up feeling like a down night against Penn State, the Buckeyes racked up 466 yards of total offense and scored 33 points against a mighty fine defense.
A national championship pitting this offense against Georgia's defense would be objectively fantastic.
And after getting shredded for 472 yards and six touchdowns on the ground through the first two games, Ohio State's defense has held its last six opponents to 383 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. As long as that continues, one could argue this is the most well-rounded team in the country.
Case Against:Lost to Oregon and has feasted on a diet of cream puffs.
Winning those Week 4-8 games by a combined score of 231-44 was quite the display of dominance, but are we really supposed to be impressed by steamrolling Akron, Rutgers, Maryland and Indiana? It's likely that only one of those teams will get to six wins this season, and that's probably going to come down to the regular-season finale between Maryland and Rutgers.
Take out those four games and you're left with the home loss to Oregon, the season opener against Minnesota that was a toss-up prior to a defensive touchdown late in the third quarter, the home game against Tulsa that was a one-score game until late in the fourth quarter and the Week 9 win over Penn State in which the Buckeyes uncharacteristically scored a touchdown on just one of six red-zone possessions.
If you want to believe in Ohio State as a title contender, it's not hard. But it's also not that hard to talk yourself into this being a borderline Top 10 team that made the most of a few of its games against sub-par competition.
Oklahoma Sooners
Case For: The only 9-0 team in the country hails from the third-best conference.
Undefeated in the Big 12 isn't quite as impressive as undefeated in the SEC or Big Ten, but it's still quite the achievement for the Sooners. And aside from that bizarrely slow start in the first half against Kansas in Week 8, they have been humming on offense since making the switch from Spencer Rattler to Caleb Williams at quarterback.
Perhaps more than anything else that could come from Tuesday night's rankings show, I want to hear selection committee chair Gary Barta say something about how it is handling its evaluation of Oklahoma based on the quarterback situation.
We can't sit here and say that Oklahoma would have more convincingly beaten Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia, Kansas State and Texas if Williams had been the starter back then. However, it'd be fair to acknowledge that this team has been different over the past month and make an effort to rank the Sooners based on their current state.
Case Against: Too many close calls and a surprisingly weak schedule.
Oklahoma's first five wins against FBS opponents were each by a one-possession margin. It was dreadful defense against Tulane and Texas; dreadful offense against Nebraska and West Virginia. Without suffering a loss, the Sooners slipped all the way from No. 2 to No. 6 in the AP rankings, and it often felt like they didn't even deserve to be that well off in the polls.
And making matters worse, Oklahoma has not yet faced a currently ranked opponent.
That's going to change in a big way down the stretch against Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State, but the Sooners had a painfully weak nonconference schedule and have thus far only faced the bottom 60 percent of the Big 12.
Again, they've looked good lately, winning three straight by multiple scores. But strength of schedule and those early margins have to matter, right?
Oregon Ducks
Oregon EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux
Case For: Road win over Ohio State, road win over Ohio State and road win over Ohio State.
The way that Oregon fans and Ohio State naysayers have been bringing up that Week 2 result in complaining about the AP rankings week after week, you'd think it was the only game that either team has played.
But there's no question it was a damn fine win.
Even though C.J. Stroud threw for nearly 500 yards, the Ducks defense did a sensational job of digging in its heels when the Buckeyes got to the fringe of field-goal range. And C.J. Verdell was a strong candidate for the "September Heisman" as a result of his 195 total yards and three touchdowns against the Ohio State defense.
The Ducks do have the worst loss (at Stanford) of any team in this conversation, but they also have the best win. Balancing those two outcomes will be tricky for the committee, but please do not assume that Oregon is going to rank ahead of Ohio State just because of that 12.5 percent of their respective resumes.
Case Against: The other six FBS games Oregon has played.
In addition to the loss to sub-.500 Stanford, Oregon needed a late touchdown to win its opener against Fresno State, had to erase a seven-point fourth-quarter deficit to take down Cal, had to climb out of an early 14-0 hole to beat UCLA, didn't pull away from winless Arizona until the fourth quarter and allowed 29 points against a Colorado offense that had been held to 14 points or fewer in five of its previous six games.
In other words, that one fantastic road win over Ohio State has been surrounded by a bunch of "meh."
Injuries and suspensions/ejections—especially on defense—have surely played a part in Oregon's inability to put together a complete game in the past month and a half. However, that doesn't change the fact that the Ducks have been consistently scraping by against a recent schedule that (aside from the road game against UCLA) a legitimate title contender would be expected to dominate.
Our Projection:
1. Georgia 2. Alabama 3. Ohio State 4. Oklahoma 5. Michigan State 6. Cincinnati 7. Oregon
I'm reasonably confident Oregon will check in at No. 7, but I truly have no idea how Nos. 2-6 will be arranged. Alabama and Ohio State will most likely be a package deal with the Crimson Tide one slot ahead of the Buckeyes because of their more difficult schedule. Though with the way they have been playing over the past month-plus, it would be very easy to argue that Ohio State is the second-best team in the country.
I do hope I'm wrong about Cincinnati and that the Bearcats get to begin the CFP rankings at No. 2 to match their current spot in the AP and Coaches polls. But a Group of Five team has never been ranked in the Top 6 by the CFP selection committee, so we should probably be prepared for Cincinnati to debut outside the Top 4.
What do you think we'll see on Tuesday night?
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter,@kerrancejames.
