Tua Tagovailoa 'Rattled' in 3-Turnover Game as Dolphins Fall to Brock Purdy, 49ers
Dec 5, 2022
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 04: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium on December 04, 2022 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
The San Francisco 49ers have a pretty scary defense. Just ask Tua Tagovailoa.
The Miami Dolphins quarterback threw two interceptions, lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, was sacked three times and left Sunday's 33-17 loss to the Niners with an ankle injury.
Talk about a tough night at the office.
Tagovailoa has been excellent at protecting the ball this season and had gone 193 pass attempts without an interception, per the FOX broadcast (h/t The Sporting News), before throwing picks on back-to-back throws against San Francisco.
NFL Twitter was surprised to see Tagovailoa struggle so much to protect the ball against the 49ers:
Tua Tagovailoa was rattled early versus the 49ers. First really bad game of the season that I can think of. He'll be okay, but San Francisco came up with a formula that some teams will try to replicate (try as they have some special defensive personnel).
Can’t make excuses. Tua didn’t play well. Not having starting tackles obviously didn’t help, but he missed lots of throws. Defense couldn’t take advantage of rookie backup QB in. Oh, and Niners defense is sick. A game like this was bound to happen. Let’s see how Miami responds.
A huge part of Tua's breakout that wasn't being discussed enough IMO is how much the OL was improved. Armstead's presence was enormously positive for the O and Tua. No Armstead = big problems. https://t.co/ChVfuD85GK
This Tua performance is worse than I expected it would be. The early-game hits have clearly made him jumpy. Accuracy, timing, and trust in the offense have all fallen away. The Niners are pressing, sending heat, and daring Tua to beat them vertically -- so far, he hasn't.
It wasn't all bad for the young quarterback; he also threw for 295 yards and two scores, including a 75-yard strike to Trent Sherfield on the game's first play from scrimmage. And after his 45-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill early in the fourth quarter, the Dolphins only found themselves down 23-17 despite Tagovailoa's struggles.
But Robbie Gould's field goal with just 2:03 remaining, and Tagovailoa's fumble on the ensuing drive that was taken to the house by Dre Greenlaw, wrapped things up for the Niners.
While Tagovailoa faltered, Niners backup quarterback Brock Purdy—who was thrust into action after Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a foot injury in the first quarter and was unable to return—had an excellent game considering the circumstances, finishing 25-of-37 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
It might be unfair to say that Purdy outplayed Tagovailoa, but he certainly managed the game well, helping his team win the turnover battle 4-1. That ultimately was the difference between the teams, as Miami's turnovers led to 13 points.
In the NFL, we usually see playoff contenders separate from pretenders
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2022 NFL MVP Odds: Who Can Catch Patrick Mahomes Entering Week 13?
Nov 29, 2022
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - NOVEMBER 27: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Arrowhead Stadium on November 27, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jason Hanna/Getty Images)
The
2022 NFL MVP award race is starting to really heat up following an exciting
Week 12 slate.
A handful of realistic contenders have established themselves as favorites with two-thirds of the campaign in the books, but there is still plenty of time for a dark horse to ascend the ranks.
With that in mind, let's look at the latest odds for the top-five MVP candidates and evaluate what each has accomplished to earn this lofty status. You can also find some outside contenders who still have a glimmer of hope at making history by earning this honor.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 27: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles points against the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (-160)
Patrick Mahomes already has one MVP in his trophy case and currently has the inside track to a second.
The 27-year-old has guided the Kansas City Chiefs to a 9-2
record—the best in the AFC heading into Week 13—while completing 66.1 percent
of his passes for 3,585 yards and 29 touchdowns against eight interceptions.
It's arguably Mahomes' most impressive campaign yet, given the challenges the Kansas City offense had to face after trading Tyreek Hill early in the offseason.
If the Chiefs keep winning and Mahomes can continue his current pace for the remainder of the season, his team will earn the top seed in the conference, and he'll finish with a record-setting 5,540 yards in addition to a whopping 45 touchdowns.
Those numbers should lock up the MVP hardware, but he does have some close competition over the final third of the campaign.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+350)
Jalen Hurts made the NFL MVP race much more interesting after a scintillating performance this past weekend. The rising Philadelphia Eagles superstar helped his team move to a league-best 10-1 after dissecting the Green Bay Packers defense during their Sunday Night Football matchup.
Hurts shined under the bright primetime lights even though he only completed 16-of-28 passing attempts for 153 yards. While two of those throws went for scores, the 24-year-old did most of his damage on the ground.
He finished with a career-high 157 rushing yards on 17 totes, sparking Philadelphia's offense to a hard-fought 40-33 victory.
The showing created plenty of buzz around Hurts' MVP chances and saw his odds improve rather significantly after he entered Week 12 at +550.
Should Hurts' squad finish with the league's best record and he has a few more heroic performances up his sleeve, the third-year quarterback could usurp Mahomes as the year's MVP.
Best Favorite Bet: Patrick Mahomes
The Contenders
FILE - In this Nov. 1, 2020, file photo, Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow reacts as he leaves the field following the team's NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans in Cincinnati. Through the halfway point, top overall draftee Burrow and No. 6 selection Justin Herbert of the Chargers drew mentions as candidates for offensive rookie. (AP Photo/Bryan Woolston, File)
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+500)
The Miami Dolphins waffled constantly on whether to commit to Tua Tagovailoa over the first two seasons of his career. The organization finally went all-in on the fifth overall pick in 2020 this offseason, bringing in superstar wideout Tyreek Hill and bolstering a shoddy offensive line to assist the young signal-caller's development.
The moves have paid off as Tagovailoa has emerged as one of the league's top players at his position.
Unfortunately, missed games have hurt his chances of becoming the league's MVP this season.
Tagovailoa endured a scary head injury against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, briefly exiting the game before reentering. He then had his head slammed into the turf in the first half of the following week, suffering a concussion that caused him to miss the remainder of the contest as well as the next two.
The 24-year-old picked up right where he left off after returning, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions over the last five games.
While Tagovailoa's emergence as a franchise quarterback has been a great development for Miami, it's likely he'll have to stay healthy and put together another sterling campaign in 2023 to earn his first MVP award.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+1400)
Josh Allen was neck-and-neck with Mahomes as an NFL MVP favorite heading into the start of the 2022 season. While his Buffalo Bills have remained in the league's upper echelon, Allen hasn't done quite enough to sit atop the hierarchy.
The 26-year-old came close to winning an MVP in 2020 when he finished second after a breakout year, but his stats this season more closely resemble his 2021 performance: a strong year but one where he failed to even rate in the top three for voters.
Through 11 games, Allen is on track for a career-high in passing yardage (4,919) with the same number of touchdowns (36) as he had last year. The quarterback is completing a slightly higher percentage of his passes (63.9 percent vs. 63.3 percent), but his turnovers have also gone up, as his 11 interceptions put him on track for a career-high 17 this season.
Allen has continued to terrorize defenses when he's scrambling and has already amassed 561 yards and five scores on 81 carries. Should he remain on this trajectory, the quarterback would easily eclipse his previous career high of 763 rushing yards. Those elite running capabilities could help earn the signal-caller some extra MVP votes.
If the fifth-year veteran catches fire and leads Buffalo to an undefeated finish or close to it while lifting his own game to another level, he could potentially shrink the gap on the odds table. If not, Allen will likely narrowly miss out on an MVP award yet again.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+1400)
Joe Burrow established himself as an elite quarterback in only his second season, returning from a torn ACL that cut his rookie year short to lead the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl.
While Cincinnati struggled out of the gate this year with a 2-3 record, Burrow has had the offense firing on all cylinders since mid-October. Over the last six games, the 25-year-old has guided his side to five wins and lit up opposing defenses for 1,844 passing yards and 14 touchdowns while adding another three scores on the ground.
It's a noticeable improvement from Burrow's early performances—he threw for 1,316 yards but had only nine touchdowns against five interceptions through Week 5—but the turnaround likely came too late for the third-year star to earn an MVP award.
Best Contender Bet: Josh Allen
The Dark Horses
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - NOVEMBER 24: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings reacts during the first half against the New England Patriots at U.S. Bank Stadium on November 24, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
The NFL MVP award is generally considered an honor reserved
for quarterbacks, especially in the modern era.
Forty-five of the 66 league MVPs have played the quarterback position, including each of the last nine winners and 14 of the past 15.
Despite this, there are a pair of skill-position players with a chance to break the mold in 2022.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (+10000)
A wide receiver has never taken home the NFL MVP award, and it seems it would take a truly special campaign from one for that to change. Cooper Kupp only finished third after winning a rare Triple Crown last year, but Justin Jefferson does have an outside chance at pulling off something no player has ever done before.
The Minnesota Vikings star was on pace to become the first wideout to ever eclipse the 2,000-yard receiving mark before a disappointing 33-yard outing against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11 hurt his chances of making history.
Jefferson rebounded on Sunday with a 139-yard showing, putting him on track for a still-impressive 1,904 yards after 17 games. That almost certainly won't give him an MVP nod, but if the 23-year-old somehow tallies up a ton of yards and snatches a few more scores over the final six games, he could improbably rise to the top of voter's lists.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (+25000)
While 18 backs have earned MVP honors since the creation of the award, none have done so since Adrian Peterson in 2012. That isn't likely to change a decade later, but Nick Chubb has the best chance of any back to snap the signal-caller streak this season.
The Cleveland Browns star may not be leading the league in rushing yards or touchdowns through 12 weeks, as his 1,039 yards place him behind both Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry, and his 12 scores put him second to Jamaal Williams. However, he has helped keep his franchise in playoff contention despite playing for an offense that has been starting a backup in Jacoby Brissett.
It will take a herculean effort by Chubb down the stretch to earn MVP odds, but he does have the talent to pull off this miraculous feat.
Best Dark-Horse Bet: Justin Jefferson
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Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Tua Tagovailoa's Fantasy Trade Advice Ahead of Deadline
Nov 9, 2022
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - AUGUST 27: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins takes the field prior to the preseason game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Hard Rock Stadium on August 27, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)
The fantasy football trade deadline is fast approaching, leaving managers with a difficult decision on whether to sell high or keep riding the wave with the Miami Dolphins' prolific offense.
Tyreek Hill comes into Week 10 on pace to set the NFL's single-season receiving record and is the top wideout in PPR formats by a massive margin. Jaylen Waddle, meanwhile, is fifth among all wideouts in scoring through the first nine weeks of the season.
Tua Tagovailoa's overall performance has been impacted by injuries, but he is sixth among quarterbacks in per-game scoring.
Here's a look at how to value all three players as the deadline approaches.
Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa has been perhaps the best value pick at the quarterback position all season. He was barely getting drafted in 12-team leagues in the preseason and is now slotted in as an every-week start.
As far as trade value goes, Tagovailoa is a firm hold because he's generally properly rated. He has 35 total rushing yards on the season, so he's never going to be able to compete with a Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts as far as top-end value. That said, the Dolphins offense is explosive enough he should have a floor of around 15 points and get into the mid-20s on most weeks.
Tyreek Hill
What are you doing? Don't you dare think about trading Tyreek Hill.
He's a fantasy monster, capable of dropping a 40-point week every time he lines up on the field while also being consistent enough to give you a double-digit floor.
And guess what? Hill has actually had bad touchdown luck this season. He's managed to be the top-scoring fantasy wideout despite having only three touchdowns and having a six-game stretch without a score before finally finding the end zone last week in Chicago.
Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson are the only players in Hill's stratosphere from a fantasy perspective.
Jaylen Waddle
If you're going to sell high on a Dolphins player, Waddle's the guy. He's wildly talented and is a clear every-week start for the rest of the season, but the odds of him finishing as a top-10 option are slim.
The Alabama product is tied for 24th in targets per game, finding himself hanging out with the likes of Christian Kirk and Courtland Sutton. While Waddle is the most talented player in that trio, he's reliant on big plays, and much of his target average is being propped up by the whopping 19 he received in Week 2.
Waddle has double the amount of games with five or fewer targets (four) than games he's been targeted 10-plus times (two). He's the type of high-variance player who could win you a week but also put up a dud in the playoffs.
Sell him now for a true WR1 on a prolific offense if possible.
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Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa Jersey from Record-Tying Game vs. Ravens in Pro Football HOF
Nov 4, 2022
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) in action during the second half of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Tua Tagovailoa's historic performance against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 has been immortalized by the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
The Miami Dolphins quarterback's jersey from the 42-38 victory is on display in Canton, Ohio.
🗣New to the Pro Football Hall of Fame
The jersey that @MiamiDolphins QB @Tua wore when he threw a record-tying four touchdowns in the fourth quarter against Baltimore on September 18 is now in display in Canton. pic.twitter.com/TZZKmAUq8S
Tagovailoa's jersey sits next to the one his Miami teammate Jaylen Waddle wore when he broke the NFL record for most receptions by a rookie in Week 18 of the 2021 season.
The Dolphins trailed 35-14 entering the fourth quarter against the Ravens, but then Tagovailoa tied an NFL record with four touchdown passes to help Miami erase the deficit.
Most TD passes in 4th quarter of a game:
Tua Tagovailoa 4 Sage Rosenfels 4 Vinny Testaverde 4 Joe Montana 4 Ken Stabler 4 pic.twitter.com/C0NeklJfar
Tagovailoa finished the game 36-of-50 for 469 yards and tied a franchise record with six touchdown passes.
The last quarterback to throw at least six touchdown passes in a game was Patrick Mahomes in Week 11 of the 2018 season. The NFL record for touchdown passes in a game is seven, shared by eight players, including Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Nick Foles.
Tagovailoa's showing against the Ravens served as a breakout game for himself as well as the Dolphins. He has thrown for at least 350 yards in two games this season after posting three games with at least 300 yards in the previous two years combined.
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Tua Tagovailoa Says Dolphins Are 'Not Afraid to Talk About Super Bowls'
Nov 2, 2022
DETROIT, MI - OCTOBER 30: Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) calls out signals during an NFL football game between the Miami Dolphins and the Detroit Lions on October 30, 2022 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Tua Tagovailoa isn't mincing words—the Miami Dolphins believe they can win a title this season.
"I think throughout OTAs and throughout training camp, we could see the potential that we had as a team, offensively and defensively," he told reporters Wednesday.
"We're not afraid to talk about Super Bowls here. We're not afraid to talk about going to a playoff game, having the opportunity to go to one, and then hopefully winning one.
"I would say I have full belief that we are capable [of winning a Super Bowl]."
The 5-3 Dolphins have featured one of the NFL's most dangerous offenses when Tagovailoa has been healthy, highlighted by the dynamic wideout duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. And the addition of edge-rusher Bradley Chubb in a trade deadline deal should seriously bolster the defense.
Expectations are high for these Dolphins, even as they look to track down the top two teams in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) and their AFC East rivals, the Buffalo Bills (6-1). After an offseason of moves that also included bringing aboard offensive tackle Terron Armstead and linebacker Melvin Ingram, the Dolphins are loaded up for a playoff push.
"I've always just viewed it as always just trying for us to put together the best team we can," Dolphins general manager Chris Grier told reporters regarding the various moves. "So for us, I think we have a lot of good players. I think Mike [McDaniel] and this coaching staff have done a great job of working with these guys, implementing their scheme and doing things that give us a chance to win. I'm not into predictions and everything, but I do think we have a good team that has a chance to compete and win some games in the future."
The Dolphins will have two games they'll expect to win in the next two weeks, against the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns, before a Week 11 bye. But games against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, Bills, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and the New York Jets down the stretch will represent major tests.
Yes, the Jets—currently 5-3, and 40-17 winners over these Dolphins in Week 5, albeit with Tagovailoa sidelined—will be a major test. Hard to believe that a Week 18 matchup between the Dolphins and Jets could have major playoff implications, but the 2022 season has been full of surprises.
Whether the Dolphins can finish the campaign atop the NFL world remains to be seen. Tagovailoa, at least, is a believer.
