Bleacher Report's Expert Week 13 NFL Picks

Bleacher Report's Expert Week 13 NFL Picks
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1Buffalo Bills (8-3) at New England Patriots (6-5)
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2Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
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3Washington Commanders (7-5) at New York Giants (7-4)
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4Denver Broncos (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
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5Green Bay Packers (4-8) at Chicago Bears (3-9)
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6New York Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
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7Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Houston Texans (1-9-1)
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8Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) at Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
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9Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)
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10Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
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11Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8)
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12Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)
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13Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
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14Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
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15New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
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Bleacher Report's Expert Week 13 NFL Picks

Dec 1, 2022

Bleacher Report's Expert Week 13 NFL Picks

Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa

In the NFL, playoff contenders usually separate from pretenders after Thanksgiving as top teams push to clinch a postseason spot. As a result, you would think our betting experts have an easier job with their picks against the spread, but isn't the case. Nonetheless, they’re ready to help you get the bag as the 2022 campaign winds to a close..

NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, Kris Knox and Maurice Moton, editor Wes O'Donnell and B/R Betting host of "Winners Only Wednesdays" Greg Ivory have had back-to-back four-win weeks as a group, but they’ve shown the ability to rebound after rough stretches.

Aside from our consensus betting woes, O’Donnell continued his hot streak with a third consecutive week of at least nine correct picks against the spread. He goes into Week 13 atop the leaderboard, although Davenport and Moton are right on his heels.

Here's a look at the complete standings with last week’s records in parentheses. Now, let's get to our Week 13 selections.

1. O'Donnell: 92-82-6 (9-6-1)

2. Davenport: 91-83-6 (7-8-1)

3. Moton: 90-84-6 (8-7-1)

T-4. Ivory: 82-92-6 (5-10-1)

T-4 Sobleski: 82-92-6 (8-7-1)

6. Knox: 78-96-6 (3-12-1)

Consensus picks: 84-75-6 (4-7-1)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.

Buffalo Bills (8-3) at New England Patriots (6-5)

Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs

Editor's Note: Bills defeated the Patriots 24-10 on Thursday night.

DraftKings Line: Bills -3.5

Since the Buffalo Bills’ Week 6 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs, Josh Allen has thrown for six touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has a career 4-4 record against the New England Patriots as a starter. This season, Buffalo is 2-3-1 against the spread as a road favorite.

Did you rethink your Bills pick yet?

Moton strayed away from our consensus selection after he saw that Pro Bowl left tackle Dion Dawkins won't play because of an ankle issue. He believes the Patriots will fluster Allen with their sixth-ranked scoring defense and cover the spread.

"While our panel gave Buffalo the consensus nod, the Bills look shaky coming into this contest. Allen has turned the ball over at least once in four of the last five games, and he's thrown multiple interceptions in four outings this season. If the Bills signal-caller is a bit sloppy on Thursday night, New England will make him pay for it.

"Because of Allen's uneven play, the loss of Dawkins and the Patriots' strong defensive front, which ranks second leaguewide in sacks and fourth in quarterback pressures, New England puts Buffalo on upset alert."

Meanwhile, Ivory didn’t let Allen’s recent struggles scare him away from laying the points with Buffalo.

"According to the New York Post, there’s an illness going around the Bills' locker room, which begs the question whether all their starters are going to be available. Per Las Vegas Insider, 74 percent of the money is on the Patriots to cover the spread. This is the same Patriots team that scored 10 points (a field goal and a punt-return touchdown) against the New York Jets two weeks ago.

"The Bills are a good team this year, and I think they will overcome the illness going around the locker room. I’m fading the public and going with the Bills and the points. "

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Ivory: Bills

Knox: Bills

Moton: Patriots

O’Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

Consensus: Bills -3.5

Score Prediction: Bills 28, Patriots 20

Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts

DraftKings Line: Eagles -5.5

The Tennessee Titans haven’t dropped consecutive games since they opened the season 0-2. But the AFC South leaders face a tough task in avoiding back-to-back losses with this week's road game against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Tennessee can lean on its winning formula—a heavy dose of star tailback Derrick Henry—to chip away at the team with the NFL's best record. The Eagles have allowed at least 106 rushing yards in six of their last seven outings.

On the flip side, the Titans must beware of a spirited performance from wide receiver A.J. Brown, whom they traded to the Eagles on Day 1 of the 2022 draft. O’Donnell thinks the Pro Bowl wideout will help his team win and cover the spread by a touchdown.

“I should take the points here. The Titans have lost only one game all season by four or more points (Week 2 at Buffalo). They know how to grind out games and are coming off a tough home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, which should motivate them to right the ship immediately.

“But Philadelphia is 5-1 at home ATS this year, and Brown is taking on his old team for the first time. Even if this game is close all the way through, a quick-strike touchdown could cover the spread. I'll take that chance with the Eagles' big-play offense. Don't be surprised if Brown is the one to deliver the knockout blow.”

Predictions

Davenport: Titans

Ivory: Eagles

Knox: Titans

Moton: Titans

O’Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Eagles

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Titans 21

Washington Commanders (7-5) at New York Giants (7-4)

Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones

DraftKings Line: Commanders -2.5

Don’t expect a flashy, high-scoring matchup between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants this week. However, this game has enormous playoff implications.

All four NFC East teams have a winning record, although the 7-5 Commanders are at the bottom of the division. If the 7-4 Giants don't snap out of their midseason slump, though, they'll fall to the cellar in the division.

We gave the consensus nod to a well-coached Big Blue squad, but Davenport thinks the clock has struck midnight for the Giants as they turn into late-season pumpkins while the Commanders surge with Taylor Heinicke under center.

“It feels weird to be laying points on the road with the Commanders, but here we are," he said. "This is a matter of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Commanders are one of the hottest teams in the league, having won six of their seven. The Giants, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four.

"Washington ranks eighth in the NFL in run defense, which could spell trouble for a Giants team that relies heavily on Saquon Barkley. Add in the all-time greatness that is Taylor Heinicke (moment of reverent silence), and you have the ingredients for a Washington win.”

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Ivory: Giants

Knox: Giants

Moton: Giants

O’Donnell: Giants

Sobleski: Giants

Consensus: Giants +2.5

Score Prediction: Giants 23, Commanders 21

Denver Broncos (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson

DraftKings Line: Ravens -8.5

Last week, the Baltimore Ravens squandered another fourth-quarter lead, losing 28-27 to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite their troubling pattern of blown leads, 78 percent of the public placed bets on them to get right back on track with a convincing win over the bumbling Denver Broncos.

You can count Moton among those who picked the Ravens to win by at least a touchdown and a field goal.

“After their upset loss to the Jaguars, the Ravens will refocus and look dominant at home against the league’s lowest-scoring team. Denver’s defense could possibly keep the score tight, but last week, it gave up a pair of touchdowns to the Carolina Panthers, who trotted out quarterback Sam Darnold for his first start of the 2022 season.

“Though Lamar Jackson has thrown only two touchdown passes and an interception over his last three games, he can find success on the ground in a matchup with the Broncos’ 19th-ranked run defense. The dual-threat signal-caller has rushed for 755 yards and three scores in 11 games.

“The Ravens could keep the Broncos’ putrid offense out of the end zone, so they may only need to reach paydirt a few times and make a field goal or two to cover this 8.5-point spread. Baltimore’s second-ranked ground attack mows down Denver in a decisive home win.”

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Ivory: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Moton: Ravens

O’Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Ravens

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Broncos 9

Green Bay Packers (4-8) at Chicago Bears (3-9)

Christian Watson
Christian Watson

DraftKings Line: Packers -4.5

This NFC North showdown has lost its luster, as both teams are a long shot to make the playoffs with records well below .500. On top of that, both starting quarterbacks will likely receive questionable tags because of injuries.

Packers signal-caller Aaron Rodgers went into hi Week 12 matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles nursing a fracture in his right thumb, and he left the game because of a rib injury. In the early kickoff window, Bears quarterback Justin Fields watched his team from the sidelines with a separated shoulder.

Even if Rodgers doesn't play, Moton is fairly confident Jordan Love can move the ball with the emergence of rookie second-round wideout Christian Watson, who scored on a 63-yard touchdown pass from the third-year signal-caller against the Eagles.

“Based what Rodgers called 'good news' on The Pat McAfee Show, he’s likely to play barring a setback," Moton said. "Meanwhile, Fields was limited in practice last week, but he didn’t suit up against the New York Jets. The Bears have a Week 14 bye, so they may hold him out for another game.

“Before Fields sat out last week, Chicago had lost four straight games. If the second-year signal-caller is limited, he might not use his legs as much, which would be a significant blow to Luke Getsy's offense. Without him, backup quarterback Trevor Siemian, who’s more of a pocket passer, will have a rough outing against the Packers’ fourth-ranked pass defense.

“In the event that Rodgers doesn’t play, Love showed he can get the ball to his playmakers. He went 6-of-9 for 113 yards and a touchdown in fill-in duty against the Eagles. Green Bay will decisively sweep its season series with Chicago regardless of Rodgers’ status."

Predictions

Davenport: Packers

Ivory: Packers

Knox: Packers

Moton: Packers

O’Donnell: Packers

Sobleski: Packers

Consensus: Packers -4.5

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 16

New York Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson

DraftKings Line: Vikings -3

Last week, the New York Jets opted to bench second-year quarterback Zach Wilson for 2018 fifth-round pick Mike White, which paid immediate dividends.

Gang Green’s offense shifted into high gear with White under center, racking up a season-high 466 total yards. White threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns with a 78.6 percent completion rate. More importantly, he elevated the presence of wideouts Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore, who finished with seven catches for 159 yards and three touchdowns combined.

Without running back Breece Hall (torn ACL), the Jets need to find success through the air. White gives them the best chance to exploit matchups on the perimeter with their young receiving duo. The Jets' Week 13 opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, have surrendered the most passing yards of any team this year.

O’Donnell acknowledged the Jets’ upgrade at quarterback, but he couldn’t find a strong reason to fade—in his words—the better overall football team.

“The Jets have lost only two games since Week 3, and both were to the rival New England Patriots in typical Patriots-Jets fashion. White was—check that, is—a fun story to root for. He boosts an offense that does have playmakers at its disposal, which Wilson has never has done, and it complements one of the league's best defenses nicely.

“But this is more about the Vikings, a team many consider to be pretenders despite their 9-2 record. With only three points to worry about and the potential for White to come back down to earth a bit, I'm rolling with the better overall team in this one.”

Predictions

Davenport: Vikings

Ivory: Vikings

Knox: Vikings

Moton: Jets

O’Donnell: Vikings

Sobleski: Jets

Consensus: Vikings -3

Score Prediction: Vikings 27, Jets 23

Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Houston Texans (1-9-1)

Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb

DraftKings Line: Browns -7

On Monday, the NFL officially reinstated Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, who served an 11-game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. More than two-dozen women who provided him with massage services accused him of sexual assault and misconduct.

Watson hasn’t played in a regular-season game since Week 17 of the 2020 campaign with the Houston Texans, though he did see action in Week 1 of the 2022 preseason, completing one out of five passes for seven yards.

As quarterback Jacoby Brissett shifts into a backup role, Watson will need to knock off some rust, so expect to see a lot of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground against the league’s worst run defense. Knox agreed with that thought and factored it into his reason for picking the Browns to cover the spread.

"I don't expect a major jump from the Browns offense in Watson's first game in nearly two years. Cleveland's game plan should look much like it did with Brissett under center—run first and run often. That's a recipe for success against a Texans defense that is surrendering nearly five yards per carry and ranks dead last in rushing yards allowed.

"Also, I'm not sure that the Texans—who currently hold the top 2023 draft slot—even want to win at this point in the year. Houston is 1-1-1 in the AFC South and 0-8 against non-divisional opponents. In all nine Texans losses, only the Chicago Bears won by less than a touchdown. I expect Cleveland to follow that trend and ride Nick Chubb to a two-score victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Texans

Ivory: Texans

Knox: Browns

Moton: Browns

O’Donnell: Browns

Sobleski: Browns

Consensus: Browns -7

Score Prediction: Browns 26, Texans 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) at Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett

DraftKings Line: Falcons -1

Bettors should give a lot of thought to a toss-up game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons.

On one hand, the Falcons have lost three of their last four games. They're squaring off with a Steelers squad that has won two of its last three contests.

Beyond the recent win-loss trends for these teams, Moton emphasized how well the Steelers match up against the Falcons.

“The Falcons must win games with their ground attack. Going into Week 13, they have accumulated the second-fewest yards through the air, so don’t expect them to take advantage of the Steelers’ porous pass defense, which has allowed the most touchdowns (23) and the third-most passing yards per game. Marcus Mariota doesn’t even have one of his top pass-catching targets in tight end Kyle Pitts, who’s out for the season with a torn MCL.

“Pittsburgh’s sixth-ranked run defense can slow down Atlanta’s fourth-ranked rushing attack, though. If defensive coordinator Teryl Austin’s guys sell out to stop Mariota, Cordarrelle Patterson, Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier on the ground, Pittsburgh can pull out a victory.

“As for the Steelers offense, rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett hasn’t thrown an interception in any of his last three games, and he's averaging 200 passing yards per contest. For comparison, Mariota is averaging 170.5 passing yards per outing.

"Pittsburgh should have some success against the Falcons’ 28th-ranked pass defense. Rookie second-round wideout George Pickens may have a breakout game in a road victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Ivory: Steelers

Knox: Steelers

Moton: Steelers

O’Donnell: Steelers

Sobleski: Falcons

Consensus: Steelers +1

Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Falcons 20

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence

DraftKings Line: Jaguars -1

Neither one of these teams look playoff-ready, but we can see the progress in both clubs over the past few weeks.

Prior to their 28-25 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving, the Detroit Lions had won three straight games. After that loss to the Bills, Lions offensive tackle Taylor Decker said, "This isn't the f--king same old Lions.”

Even though Detroit gives up the most points and yards of any team, its defense has developed a knack for forcing turnovers. The Lions have recorded eight takeaways over the past four weeks, which has helped them go 3-1 in November.

Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars have also made strides. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence led his team to a 28-27 victory with a signature performance against the Baltimore Ravens last week (29-of-37 passing for 321 yards and three touchdowns). If running back Travis Etienne Jr. shakes off his foot injury to play, the Jaguars will give Detroit’s defense all it can handle and more Sunday.

Lawrence caught Sobleski’s attention last week. He thinks the second-year signal-caller has turned the corner just in time to carve up the Lions defense.

“Lawrence changed from mild-mannered Bruce Banner through the first portion of the season into the Incredible Hulk during his last three contests. While claiming two victories during that stretch, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick completed 76.9 percent of his passes for 815 yards with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

"Lawrence has turned on the light bulb under center, as evidenced by Sunday's comeback victory over the Ravens. Although the Jaguars trailed by nine points in the fourth quarter, Lawrence threw a touchdown pass to Marvin Jones Jr. with only 14 seconds remaining and then converted a game-winning two-point attempt.

"While Jacksonville radiates positivity because of its transcendent talent behind center, the Lions own the league's worst defense. Expect Lawrence to put his teammates in position to make plays and to make some on his own.”

Predictions

Davenport: Jaguars

Ivory: Lions

Knox: Lions

Moton: Jaguars

O’Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Jaguars

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Jaguars 34, Lions 31

Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)

Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa

DraftKings Line: 49ers -4

In a classic case of the teacher vs. the protégé, Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel will lead his squad into a marquee matchup against his former team, the San Francisco 49ers. He served as a run game coordinator and offensive coordinator under Kyle Shanahan between 2017 and 2021.

McDaniel has elevated the Dolphins’ passing attack with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa throwing pinpoint balls to wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. He also helped bolster the ground game with the addition of Jeff Wilson Jr., whom Miami acquired from San Francisco on Nov. 1.

The Dolphins’ balanced attack will pose a tough challenge for the 49ers’ No. 1-ranked defense in points and yards allowed. San Francisco’s bread-and-butter run game also has some question marks with Christian McCaffrey battling “knee irritation” (in Shanahan’s words) and Elijah Mitchell on injured reserve with a knee injury.

Because of those factors, our crew took the points with Miami, but Ivory sided with San Francisco.

"Tua is outplaying Jimmy G in every category, including protecting the ball," he said. "It’s almost shocking to see the Dolphins getting four points here given their high-scoring offense, but once I noticed that 83 percent of the public is on the Dolphins to cover (h/t Las Vegas Insider), it immediately points me to Kyle Shanahan as an offensive mastermind who can overcome some of Jimmy G's mistakes. Also, I've got to mention that 49ers defense is nothing to be played with. Give me the Niners minus the points."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Ivory: 49ers

Knox: Dolphins

Moton: Dolphins

O’Donnell: Dolphins

Sobleski: Dolphins

Consensus: Dolphins +4

Score Prediction: Dolphins 23, 49ers 22

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8)

D.K. Metcalf
D.K. Metcalf

DraftKings Line: Seahawks -7.5

Since beating the Carolina Panthers in Week 6, the Los Angeles Rams have lost five straight games. Along the way, the reigning champions have lost key players such as All-Pro wideout Cooper Kupp (high ankle sprain), quarterback Matthew Stafford (concussion), starting wide receiver Allen Robinson II (foot) and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald (high ankle sprain). Kupp is on injured reserve, and Robinson will miss the rest of the season.

The Rams have too many significant injuries to make a late-season surge. If Stafford doesn’t play and Bryce Perkins makes his second career start, Los Angeles would have an uphill battle with the Seattle Seahawks, who boast the league's fourth-ranked scoring offense.

Nonetheless, Knox and Ivory gave the nod to the Rams against the spread. The former explained why Los Angeles can cover in a divisional matchup.

“There's no logical reason for the Rams to hang in this one," Knox said. "Los Angeles is nearly done for the season, and the fact that Stafford, Donald and Kupp could all be shut down for the year certainly doesn't help L.A.'s postseason chances. However, this is a desperate Rams team that is quite familiar with its division foe. I think Los Angeles makes this a much closer game than most expect.

“Los Angeles is allowing fewer than four yards per carry, while Seahawks rookie star Kenneth Walker III has been bottled up on the ground in his last two outings (43 rushing yards and two touchdowns). While I trust Geno Smith to carry the offense, I don't trust the Seahawks—who have at least one turnover in every single game—to avoid mistakes. I'll take a chance on the home team to cover a pretty large line for a divisional game.”

Predictions

Davenport: Seahawks

Ivory: Rams

Knox: Rams

Moton: Seahawks

O’Donnell: Seahawks

Sobleski: Seahawks

Consensus: Seahawks -7.5

Score Prediction: Seahawks 30, Rams 20

Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)

Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert

DraftKings Line: Chargers -1.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the NFL's most enigmatic teams this season. They went on a three-game winning streak in October, but they had consecutive losses in September and November and have a minus-30 point differential.

One thing hasn’t changed about the Chargers, though: their poor run defense. That doesn’t bode well for them with Las Vegas Raiders tailback Josh Jacobs coming off a 229-yard, two-touchdown rushing performance against the Seattle Seahawks.

Since these teams played in Week 1, the Raiders offense has shifted from a pass-heavy unit to a group that leans heavily on Jacobs’ legs, which has worked out in their favor. Head coach Josh McDaniels had to adjust without tight end Darren Waller (hamstring) and wideout Hunter Renfrow (oblique), who have been on injured reserve for three weeks.

Davenport gave the nod to the Raiders because of their favorable matchup on the ground. He thinks they have the better of two subpar defenses.

“Trusting the Raiders feels a bit like buying into Lucy's insistence that she won't pull the ball back from Charlie Brown at the last second this time. But the path to victory is there for the Raiders this week. That path is riding Jacobs against a Chargers run defense that ranks 28th in the NFL.

“The Raiders should be able to move the ball more or less at will here. While their defense isn't good, I trust Vegas to get a key stop at home more than the Bolts. Raiders win their third straight in a squeaker, and head coach Josh McDaniels' seat cools off a bit more.”

Bettors should keep in mind that Jacobs isn’t a lock to play because of a calf injury. He won’t practice much while getting “around-the-clock treatment”, per NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. With that said, Jacobs went into Week 12 with a questionable tag because of that calf and racked up a career-high 303 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.

Predictions

Davenport: Raiders

Ivory: Chargers

Knox: Chargers

Moton: Chargers

O’Donnell: Chargers

Sobleski: Raiders

Consensus: Chargers -1.5

Score Prediction: Chargers 34, Raiders 31

Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce

DraftKings Line: Chiefs -1.5

These teams squared off in last year's AFC Championship Game, and the Cincinnati Bengals came out on top to reach Super Bowl LVI. If Sunday’s contest matches that 27-24 playoff overtime thriller, fans should get their popcorn ready for one of the best showcases of the season.

The Bengals have won three consecutive games, including back-to-back road victories. They accomplished that without wideout Ja’Marr Chase, who’s been out since Week 8, and they were without running back Joe Mixon (concussion) last week as well. With some momentum and two recent wins over the Chiefs, Cincinnati should feel confident in its chance to win this game.

While most of our crew backed the Chiefs, Sobleski expects the Bengals to keep pace with Kansas City’s No. 1 scoring offense, though he also believes they’re more capable of getting a crucial stop late in the game.

“Hoo boy, this one should be a barnburner in southwestern Ohio. This pick is based on taking the points and trust in the Bengals offense to go punch-for-punch with Patrick Mahomes and Co. After all, we've seen it before—twice, to be exact. Cincinnati won both contests against Kansas City last season by scoring 61 combined points. The fact Chase is expected back from a hip injury this weekend only helps the Bengals' case.

“One or two defensive stops may be all it takes for either team to emerge victorious. The Chiefs are explosive, but the Bengals defense is even better in DVOA than it was a year ago, as The Athletic's Nate Tice noted Monday.”

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Ivory: Chiefs

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Chiefs

O’Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Bengals

Consensus: Chiefs -1.5

Score Prediction: Chiefs 31, Bengals 27

Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott

DraftKings Line: Cowboys -11

The Dallas Cowboys have lost only one game that quarterback Dak Prescott started and finished this season. Following their overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 10, the Cowboys have looked sharp against the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants.

With a 28-20 win over Big Blue on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys had a few extra days to prepare for the Indianapolis Colts, who are fresh off a 24-17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.

We’re split on a decision against the spread, though Moton called for a blowout in favor of Dallas.

“Bettors may fade the Cowboys with a double-digit line, but they’ve won five games by 12 or more points," he said. "Because of their seventh-ranked scoring offense and a defense that allows the second-fewest points per game, they can build big leads and blow out opponents.

“Furthermore, the Cowboys are 3-1 against the spread as home favorites. Even though they gave up a late touchdown to allow a backdoor cover for the New York Giants (+9.5) on Thanksgiving, the Colts’ 30th-ranked scoring offense doesn’t pose much of a threat. Indianapolis has failed to score more than 17 points in back-to-back games under interim head coach Jeff Saturday.

“Dallas will cruise to a win as running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard cut through a defense that’s given up 313 rushing yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks.”

Predictions

Davenport: Colts

Ivory: Colts

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O’Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Colts

Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Colts 14

New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

Tom Brady
Tom Brady

DraftKings Line: Buccaneers -4

Based on recent history between these NFC South rivals, the New Orleans Saints seem like the easy pick. But in Week 2, Tom Brady beat them during the regular season (20-10) for the first time as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. He also has a win against the Saints in the playoffs.

Moton factored in past results and injuries to make his pick, which deviates from the group consensus.

“Overall, Brady has a 2-4 record against New Orleans since he joined the NFC South,” he said. “Though the Buccaneers beat the Saints decisively in September, they don’t score enough (27th in points per game) for bettors to comfortably lay points with them in a matchup with a pesky division rival.

“Furthermore, Brady won’t have All-Pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to protect him from the Saints pass rush, which is tied for eighth leaguewide in sacks. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore also has a recent track record of locking up Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans, and he could return from an abdomen injury after a near two-month absence. The four-time Pro Bowler went through three limited practices last week but didn’t suit up against the San Francisco 49ers.

“Even if the Buccaneers come out on top, the Saints will make them work for it. This game will come down to a field goal either way.”

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Ivory: Buccaneers

Knox: Buccaneers

Moton: Saints

O’Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Buccaneers

Consensus: Buccaneers -4

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 21, Saints 16


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