2022 NFL MVP Odds: Who Can Catch Patrick Mahomes Entering Week 13?
The 2022 NFL MVP award race is starting to really heat up following an exciting Week 12 slate.
A handful of realistic contenders have established themselves as favorites with two-thirds of the campaign in the books, but there is still plenty of time for a dark horse to ascend the ranks.
With that in mind, let's look at the latest odds for the top-five MVP candidates and evaluate what each has accomplished to earn this lofty status. You can also find some outside contenders who still have a glimmer of hope at making history by earning this honor.
NFL MVP odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Monday
The Favorites
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (-160)
Patrick Mahomes already has one MVP in his trophy case and currently has the inside track to a second.
The 27-year-old has guided the Kansas City Chiefs to a 9-2 record—the best in the AFC heading into Week 13—while completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 3,585 yards and 29 touchdowns against eight interceptions.
It's arguably Mahomes' most impressive campaign yet, given the challenges the Kansas City offense had to face after trading Tyreek Hill early in the offseason.
If the Chiefs keep winning and Mahomes can continue his current pace for the remainder of the season, his team will earn the top seed in the conference, and he'll finish with a record-setting 5,540 yards in addition to a whopping 45 touchdowns.
Those numbers should lock up the MVP hardware, but he does have some close competition over the final third of the campaign.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+350)
Jalen Hurts made the NFL MVP race much more interesting after a scintillating performance this past weekend. The rising Philadelphia Eagles superstar helped his team move to a league-best 10-1 after dissecting the Green Bay Packers defense during their Sunday Night Football matchup.
Hurts shined under the bright primetime lights even though he only completed 16-of-28 passing attempts for 153 yards. While two of those throws went for scores, the 24-year-old did most of his damage on the ground.
He finished with a career-high 157 rushing yards on 17 totes, sparking Philadelphia's offense to a hard-fought 40-33 victory.
The showing created plenty of buzz around Hurts' MVP chances and saw his odds improve rather significantly after he entered Week 12 at +550.
Should Hurts' squad finish with the league's best record and he has a few more heroic performances up his sleeve, the third-year quarterback could usurp Mahomes as the year's MVP.
Best Favorite Bet: Patrick Mahomes
The Contenders
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+500)
The Miami Dolphins waffled constantly on whether to commit to Tua Tagovailoa over the first two seasons of his career. The organization finally went all-in on the fifth overall pick in 2020 this offseason, bringing in superstar wideout Tyreek Hill and bolstering a shoddy offensive line to assist the young signal-caller's development.
The moves have paid off as Tagovailoa has emerged as one of the league's top players at his position.
Unfortunately, missed games have hurt his chances of becoming the league's MVP this season.
Tagovailoa endured a scary head injury against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3, briefly exiting the game before reentering. He then had his head slammed into the turf in the first half of the following week, suffering a concussion that caused him to miss the remainder of the contest as well as the next two.
The 24-year-old picked up right where he left off after returning, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns with zero interceptions over the last five games.
While Tagovailoa's emergence as a franchise quarterback has been a great development for Miami, it's likely he'll have to stay healthy and put together another sterling campaign in 2023 to earn his first MVP award.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+1400)
Josh Allen was neck-and-neck with Mahomes as an NFL MVP favorite heading into the start of the 2022 season. While his Buffalo Bills have remained in the league's upper echelon, Allen hasn't done quite enough to sit atop the hierarchy.
The 26-year-old came close to winning an MVP in 2020 when he finished second after a breakout year, but his stats this season more closely resemble his 2021 performance: a strong year but one where he failed to even rate in the top three for voters.
Through 11 games, Allen is on track for a career-high in passing yardage (4,919) with the same number of touchdowns (36) as he had last year. The quarterback is completing a slightly higher percentage of his passes (63.9 percent vs. 63.3 percent), but his turnovers have also gone up, as his 11 interceptions put him on track for a career-high 17 this season.
Allen has continued to terrorize defenses when he's scrambling and has already amassed 561 yards and five scores on 81 carries. Should he remain on this trajectory, the quarterback would easily eclipse his previous career high of 763 rushing yards. Those elite running capabilities could help earn the signal-caller some extra MVP votes.
If the fifth-year veteran catches fire and leads Buffalo to an undefeated finish or close to it while lifting his own game to another level, he could potentially shrink the gap on the odds table. If not, Allen will likely narrowly miss out on an MVP award yet again.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+1400)
Joe Burrow established himself as an elite quarterback in only his second season, returning from a torn ACL that cut his rookie year short to lead the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl.
While Cincinnati struggled out of the gate this year with a 2-3 record, Burrow has had the offense firing on all cylinders since mid-October. Over the last six games, the 25-year-old has guided his side to five wins and lit up opposing defenses for 1,844 passing yards and 14 touchdowns while adding another three scores on the ground.
It's a noticeable improvement from Burrow's early performances—he threw for 1,316 yards but had only nine touchdowns against five interceptions through Week 5—but the turnaround likely came too late for the third-year star to earn an MVP award.
Best Contender Bet: Josh Allen
The Dark Horses
The NFL MVP award is generally considered an honor reserved for quarterbacks, especially in the modern era.
Forty-five of the 66 league MVPs have played the quarterback position, including each of the last nine winners and 14 of the past 15.
Despite this, there are a pair of skill-position players with a chance to break the mold in 2022.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (+10000)
A wide receiver has never taken home the NFL MVP award, and it seems it would take a truly special campaign from one for that to change. Cooper Kupp only finished third after winning a rare Triple Crown last year, but Justin Jefferson does have an outside chance at pulling off something no player has ever done before.
The Minnesota Vikings star was on pace to become the first wideout to ever eclipse the 2,000-yard receiving mark before a disappointing 33-yard outing against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11 hurt his chances of making history.
Jefferson rebounded on Sunday with a 139-yard showing, putting him on track for a still-impressive 1,904 yards after 17 games. That almost certainly won't give him an MVP nod, but if the 23-year-old somehow tallies up a ton of yards and snatches a few more scores over the final six games, he could improbably rise to the top of voter's lists.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (+25000)
While 18 backs have earned MVP honors since the creation of the award, none have done so since Adrian Peterson in 2012. That isn't likely to change a decade later, but Nick Chubb has the best chance of any back to snap the signal-caller streak this season.
The Cleveland Browns star may not be leading the league in rushing yards or touchdowns through 12 weeks, as his 1,039 yards place him behind both Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry, and his 12 scores put him second to Jamaal Williams. However, he has helped keep his franchise in playoff contention despite playing for an offense that has been starting a backup in Jacoby Brissett.
It will take a herculean effort by Chubb down the stretch to earn MVP odds, but he does have the talent to pull off this miraculous feat.
Best Dark-Horse Bet: Justin Jefferson
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