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NFL MVP Race 2022-23: Latest Predictions After Updated Odds Entering Week 15

Dec 13, 2022
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts after a touchdown against the New York Giants during an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts after a touchdown against the New York Giants during an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

Top quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow were all expected to be among the contenders for NFL MVP at the start of the 2022 season. And those three are all in the race heading into Week 15.

However, a clear front-runner has emerged through 14 weeks, and it isn't one of that trio.

Jalen Hurts is putting together an incredible third season in the league to help the Philadelphia Eagles solidify their status as the top team in the NFL. They have gotten off to a 12-1 start, while no other team has lost fewer than three games.

Can the 24-year-old finish strongly over the final four weeks and earn his first NFL MVP, or will somebody else overtake him?

Here's a look at the latest NFL MVP odds entering Week 15, followed by predictions for how the race for the top award will unfold down the stretch.


Latest NFL MVP Odds

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: -175 (bet $175 to win $100)

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: +200 (bet $100 to win $200)

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow: +750

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa: +2000

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen: +2000

Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith: +8000

Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: +10000

Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: +10000

Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins: +10000

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: +10000

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey: +25000

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry: +25000

Dallas Cowboys LB Micah Parsons: +25000

Via DraftKings Sportsbook


Predictions

The NFL MVP doesn't always have to go to a player from the league's best team. But the dominance the Eagles have shown this season works in Hurts' favor.

Philadelphia won its first eight games of the year before falling to the Washington Commanders at home in Week 10. It has since gotten back on track, winning four straight including the lopsided victory over the New York Giants on Sunday.

Hurts has been one of the biggest reasons for the Eagles' success. Their offense wouldn't be performing nearly as well without him, especially because he's making plays happen with both his arm and his legs.

Through 13 games, the former Alabama and Oklahoma player has passed for 3,157 yards and 22 touchdowns, both already career highs. The Eagles got him a true No. 1 wide receiver when they traded for A.J. Brown in the offseason in a move that has paid huge dividends.

But Hurts' rushing ability takes his game to another level. He's run for 686 yards and 10 touchdowns, matching his total from last season. His next rushing score will break the franchise record for most in a season by a QB, which he set himself in 2021.

According to Tom Canavan of the Associated Press, the Houston native is the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for at least 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. But he's been quick to credit the players around him in Philadelphia's offense for the success.

"The most simple thing we've done is to try and grow and execute," Hurts said. "It's good that we prepared in a way that we've been able to execute at a high level. We just want to continue to do that. That's the name of the game."

Other quarterbacks, such as Mahomes, Burrow and Allen, are likely to put up some big numbers the rest of the way. Each is also the signal-caller for a top team that could make a run to a Super Bowl title.

However, none of them will have made the type of impact Hurts has this year.

The Eagles have a good chance to finish the season strong. They have remaining matchups against the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints, a pair of struggling teams. And they'll again face the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, two NFC East rivals they've already defeated once.

Hurts will continue to have impressive stats, and that will be more than enough to wrap up the NFL MVP race.


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Eagles' Jalen Hurts Jumps Patrick Mahomes in NFL MVP Odds, Peter King's Rankings

Dec 12, 2022
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles carries the ball during the first half of the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles carries the ball during the first half of the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

After another huge game against a division rival, Philadelphia Eagles star Jalen Hurts is now the betting favorite to win the NFL's Most Valuable Player award.

DraftKings lists Hurts at minus-115 to win the award ($115 bet to win $100), putting him ahead of Patrick Mahomes.

  • Jalen Hurts (-115)
  • Patrick Mahomes (+150)
  • Joe Burrow (+750)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (+2000)
  • Josh Allen (+2000)

Peter King of NBC Sports has a similar list on his MVP watch:

  1. Jalen Hurts
  2. Patrick Mahomes
  3. Joe Burrow
  4. Josh Allen
  5. Justin Jefferson

Hurts threw two touchdown passes and rushed for another during the Eagles' 48-22 win over the New York Giants on Sunday, helping the team improve to 12-1 on the season. Philadelphia now has the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL, while Hurts personally has 22 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns and just three interceptions.

With his numbers on the best team in football, it's hard to justify anyone else for MVP at this stage.

Mahomes still has a chance to overtake him late in the season after helping the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos to get to 10-3 on the year. The quarterback leads the NFL with 4,160 passing yards and 33 touchdowns despite losing top receiver Tyreek Hill in the offseason.

On the other hand, Mahomes threw three interceptions on Sunday and has 11 picks on the year. He also struggled to generate much offense in last week's loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

The are four weeks left in the regular season for Mahomes or someone like Joe Burrow to take over as the MVP favorite, but Hurts is the clear top option through Week 14.

Eagles Leaving Their Doubters with Little Ammo After Dominant Victory over Giants

Dec 12, 2022
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles carries the ball during the first half of the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles carries the ball during the first half of the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

It wasn't a stretch entering Week 14 to call the Philadelphia Eagles the best team in the NFC East. Or the best team in the NFC. Or the best team in the NFL. After all, the Eagles opened the season with eight straight wins—the best start in franchise history. At 11-1 heading into this week's matchup with the New York Giants, the Eagles were in the driver's seat for the top seed in the NFC.

However, in recent weeks, whispers of doubt started to creep around the Eagles. There was the double-digit loss to Washington in Week 10. A listless comeback win over a bad Colts team the following the week. A win over the Packers the week after that in which Philly allowed 33 points. Maybe the Eagles were mortal, after all.

Then again, maybe not.

Sunday's blowout victory over the G-Men marked the second successive week in which the Eagles trounced a team with a winning record. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense did whatever they pleased. The Philadelphia defense shut the Giants down until the game was out of hand.

And as the Eagles head into the final month of the regular season, the NFC is their conference. Everyone else is just living in it.

Earlier this week, Bleacher Report's own Brad Gagnon wrote that these next few weeks are critical for the Eagles. It is a chance to make a statement that the NFC East belongs to them—or squander their lead in the division.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs the ball for a touchdown during the third quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs the ball for a touchdown during the third quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

"Philly was outplayed in back-to-back ugly performances against the Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts in November," Gagnon wrote. "It has rebounded in the win column but is about to launch a three-game road trip that includes matchups with the tough New York Giants and tougher Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles could blow their two-game lead in the NFC East, especially if they lose in Dallas on Christmas Eve."

Maybe the Eagles read Gagnon's column, because they spent most of Sunday's game demonstrating quite clearly how not wide open their division is.

The engine that has been driving the Eagles all season long is quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is one of the leading candidates to be named the NFL's MVP. As Zach Berman wrote for The Athletic, after coaching Hurts collegiately at Alabama, Giants head coach Brian Daboll said he fully expected to have his hands full with the third-year signal-caller.

"I think one word that defines Jalen is 'consistency,'" Daboll said. "He's always hungry. He's one of the best leaders I've ever been around, and he was young at that particular time. But he had leadership. He had toughness. He was all day football. He knew how to relate to everyone in his unit. I would just say the mental toughness that he has—and his ability just to focus on the next thing, not worry about what happened last game, the last play—comes from a football family. And he really means a lot to me."

Hurts didn't disappoint.

As has been the case so many times this season, Hurts did just about whatever he wanted, whenever he wanted. On the ground, he picked up 77 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. Through the air, he threw for 217 yards and two scores on 21-of-31 passing with a passer rating of 109.2.

Not bad for a quarterback who supposedly can't throw the ball. And after another stellar effort, Hurts told reporters he hasn't forgotten the skeptics who doubted his viability as a passer.

"I carry my scars everywhere I go. I don't forget," Hurts said.

It's a continuation of a tear that Hurts has been on dating back to the game against Green Bay.

As great as Hurts has been, he has benefited from all the talent around him. Leading into Sunday's game, Giants defensive coordinator Don Martindale admitted to reporters that his team would be hard-pressed to slow down wide receiver A.J. Brown, who has been outstanding since joining the Eagles in a trade during the 2022 draft.

"He is a…it's like they got T.O. [Terrell Owens] back there playing again," Martindale said. "He is a problem. We went against him when he was with Tennessee. He is a big, physical receiver, that you have to fight every play. I told [Giants defensive backs coach] Jerome Henderson if he was a defensive player, he'd be an outside 'backer. That's how physical he plays at wide receiver."

Sure enough, Brown caught four passes for 70 yards and a score, becoming the first Eagles wideout since Jeremy Maclin in 2014 to surpass 1,000 yards in a season. DeVonta Smith added five receptions for 64 yards and a score. Running back Miles Sanders exploded for 144 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries, becoming the first Eagles running back since that same 2014 season to surpass 1,000 yards.

It's not just a matter of an offense full of firepower and an MVP-caliber quarterback. Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus ranks the Eagles' offensive line as the best in the NFL. The Eagles defense is allowing less than 300 yards per game and just 19.1 points per contest. The team leads the league in takeaways, sacks and turnover differential, too.

The Eagles are loaded. There are no glaring weaknesses—something that cannot be said about many of the NFC's other contenders.

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: A.J. Brown #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after a touchdown during the second quarter of the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 11: A.J. Brown #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after a touchdown during the second quarter of the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on December 11, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

The Dallas Cowboys are essentially "Eagles Lite." Dallas is a good team (Sunday's ugly win over the hapless Texans notwithstanding), but its offense isn't as explosive nor its defense as stifling as Philly's. After losing to the Lions in Detroit, the Minnesota Vikings (who the Eagles pummeled in Week 2) have allowed 400-plus yards in five straight games. The San Francisco 49ers dominated the Buccaneers on Sunday, but the Niners are still on their third-string quarterback and lost top wideout Deebo Samuel on Sunday.

The Seahawks, Giants and Commanders are all nice stories, but the odds of any of those teams going into Philly and winning a playoff game are slim to none.

Does this mean Eagles fans should start pricing airfare to Arizona in February? No, that's not how the NFL works. All it takes is one bad game, one injury to a key player to derail a season.

But what it does mean is that 14 weeks into the 2022 NFL season, the Eagles are head and shoulders better than any other team in the NFC. Maybe in the NFL. We can try all day to poke holes in their seemingly impenetrable armor, but after watching them steamroll the Giants, a compelling case can be made that the only team with a real shot of preventing the Eagles from representing the NFC in Super Bowl LVII is the Eagles.

NFL Fans Troll Giants, Pursuit of Odell Beckham Jr. During Blowout Loss to Eagles

Dec 11, 2022
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) is pressured by Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (91) during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bryan Woolston)
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) is pressured by Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Fletcher Cox (91) during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bryan Woolston)

The New York Giants were so comprehensively beaten by the Philadelphia Eagles in a 48-22 smackdown Sunday, fans of the team got bored with the action on the field and started wondering if the performance would sour Odell Beckham Jr. on potentially signing with the team.

The general consensus, at least among salty Giants fans on Twitter, was that Beckham would choose to stay away:

There were, of course, far more interesting and relevant things from the actual game worth discussing. A beat-up defense was shredded to the tune of 437 yards from scrimmage and 253 yards on the ground, calling into question defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale's game plan on that side of the ball.

https://twitter.com/AntRichardson87/status/1602041579769942020

The offense was arguably just as poor, failing to consistently string together drives because of poor execution on third-down attempts (4-of-13).

Daniel Jones wasn't awful (18-of-27 for 169 yards and one score; four sacks taken; 26 rushing yards and one touchdown), but he didn't match the big-play output of his counterpart on the other sideline, Jalen Hurts, who threw for two touchdowns and rushed for another.

Jones, of course, doesn't have the weapons that Hurts possesses in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith out wide. The team's most dangerous playmaker, Saquon Barkley, was limited because of a neck injury and only had 11 touches (48 yards from scrimmage).

That is where a player like Beckham could help. But the veteran free agent is likely only going to go to a team where he could make a postseason run, and the 7-5-1 Giants are hardly even guaranteed to reach the playoffs after going 1-4-1 in their past six contests.

The Giants are trending in the wrong direction. It may cost them a reunion with Beckham. At the very least, Sunday's performance against the Eagles (12-1) was ugly, and it has people wondering if the Giants' hot start was simply a mirage.

NFC Exec Questions If Eagles Get 'Full Return' on A.J. Brown Because of Jalen Hurts

Dec 1, 2022
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 27: A.J. Brown #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates with Jalen Hurts #1 after a 6-yard touchdown pass during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - NOVEMBER 27: A.J. Brown #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates with Jalen Hurts #1 after a 6-yard touchdown pass during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

It's hard to find fault with anything the Philadelphia Eagles have done amid building a 10-1 record this season, but at least one executive from an NFC team has questions about their ability to maximize A.J. Brown with their current quarterback.

Speaking to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the anonymous executive questioned Jalen Hurts as a franchise quarterback who is capable of taking advantage of everything Brown can do.

"I don't really believe in Jalen Hurts like some others do—are you getting a full return on Brown considering the quarterback they have?" the NFC executive said. "That's a legitimate question."

There's no arguing the addition of Brown has opened up elements of the passing game that were missing for Hurts in 2021. The fourth-year wide receiver leads the team 831 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

Hurts has made huge strides as a quarterback from 2021 to 2022. He has increased his completion percentage by six points (61.3 to 67.3), rating by more than 18 points (87.2 to 105.6) and QBR by almost 20 points (48.5 to 68.2). His 17 touchdown passes in 11 games are one more than he had in 15 starts last season.

There has been a shift in how Hurts is succeeding recently. He's only thrown for 343 yards in the past two games, but has made up for it with 243 yards on 33 carries. His 157 yards on the ground against the Green Bay Packers in Week 12 were the most by a quarterback in Eagles history.

Hurts only had 26 rushing attempts in the previous four games before Week 11. The 24-year-old may never be regarded as one of the best pocket passers in the NFL, but the results this season have inspired confidence he can be a high-level starter for a long time.

Having a true No. 1 receiver like Brown has elevated Hurts' game. Not every elite wideout gets the opportunity to play with an elite quarterback, but if the pieces fit to make the team successful, no one is going to bat an eye.

Tom Brady Says Eagles' Jalen Hurts Is Playing at a 'Very, Very, Very High Level'

Nov 29, 2022
PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 27: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs with the ball against the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 27: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles runs with the ball against the Green Bay Packers at Lincoln Financial Field on November 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Tom Brady offered high praise to Jalen Hurts on his podcast Let's Go! after the Philadelphia Eagles' win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday:

"That's why that team is so successful. He's playing at a very, very, very high level, and they're a tough team to stop," Brady said of Hurts.

Hurts has emerged as an MVP candidate with 17 passing touchdowns and just three interceptions, adding 597 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. He's a major reason the Eagles are 10-1.

Brady has won three MVP awards himself and was second in voting last year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, although he's mostly succeeded with his passing rather than rushing. The 45-year-old has negative-six rushing yards through 11 games in 2022.

It's easy to see why Brady has been in awe of Hurts' all-around play.