College Basketball Predictions

Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away, but most fans of men's college basketball already have a good idea of which unlikely team(s) they consider capable of reaching the Sweet 16 and beyond.

We asked B/R app users for the team they think might be the Cinderella story of the 2022 men's NCAA tournament.

Two quick thoughts/observations before we dive in.

First, a lot of you need to recalibrate what you think counts as a surprising Sweet 16 run. Alabama and Arkansas were the most popular answers, but two wins by teams in the mix for No. 5 seeds wouldn't be a surprise at all. There were also nominations for UCLA, Duke, Texas Tech and Tennessee, each of which appeared in the selection committee's top-16 reveal this past Saturday. It would be more surprising if those teams failed to reach the Sweet 16.

Second, several users gave some variation of "I'll answer after I see the actual bracket," and good on you for doing the responsible thing, not talking yourself into a dark horse before even knowing the matchups.

That's the smart answer.

It's also the boring answer, and we're here to have some fun.

Here are the responses that stood out among the crowd.

                 

Save a Bracket, Ride a Cowboy

@jack_hart, @h2h003 and @karlBarx118: Wyoming

Wyoming is absolutely going to be my kryptonite in this year's bracket, provided the Cowboys do finish strong enough to make the dance.

The Cowboys entered Wednesday's game at Colorado State with a 22-4 record and a nice stockpile of low Quadrant 1 / solid Quadrant 2 victories. They also have a talented primary trio of Graham Ike (the frontcourt work horse), Drake Jeffries (the perimeter sniper) and Hunter Maldonado (the do-it-all 6'7" point-forward).

However, they got stomped 94-65 at Arizona in their only game against a stone-cold lock for the NCAA tournament. Wyoming is also ranked outside the top 100 in ESPN's BPI, which suggests that it would be expected to lose a neutral-site game against 12-15 Louisville and would only narrowly defeat 11-16 NC State.

If I had to pick a side today, though, I consider myself more of a Wyoming believer than a skeptic.

Ike strikes me as a more durable version of former Michigan State big man Nick Ward. Per KenPom, Ike leads the nation in both percentage of possessions used and fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Basically, they feed him relentlessly, and he does not shy away from contact in the slightest. Ward did that for around 18 minutes a game, but Ike has logged at least 36 minutes on nine occasions.

Sticking with the Spartan comparisons, Maldonado has a bit of a senior-year Denzel Valentine vibe going. Wyoming's point-forward is a little bit taller and nowhere near as dangerous from three-point range, but he is averaging better than 19 points, six assists and five rebounds per game. Of the 10 players in the past three decades to put up those numbers in a season, the only ones to do so at 6'5" or taller are Maldonado, Valentine and Penny Hardaway.

Add a fantastic three-point shooter like Jeffries and you've got a scary-good team that would likely land on the No. 8 or No. 9 line if the tournament started today.

            

#MACtion

@lukeboldon: Ohio

@D_ET: Toledo

@ASAPHERB: Kent State

@Raffle: Toledo Rockets

@bryantzwayer: Ohio Bobcats

The moral of the story here is you're going to want to keep an eye on the Mid-American Conference tournament, because it is liable to produce a Sweet 16-caliber team.

While there's no good way for me to prove it, I promise this section was decided upon before Tuesday night's action, when Ohio's Ben Vander Plas had 10 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds in a 26-point win over Central Michigan, Toledo went on the road to beat Western Michigan by 42 and Kent State extended its winning streak to nine games behind 42 points from Sincere Carry and a triple-double (17 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) from Malique Jacobs.

The to-be-determined MAC champ was already going to be a scary No. 12 or No. 13 seed, and Tuesday further drove that point home.

Of the bunch, the metrics marginally like Toledo the best, but all three have the type of lead guard an entire nation could fall in love with next month.

Carry has averaged 21.0 points and 4.4 assists during Kent State's nine-game winning streak. Mark Sears had scored in double figures in every game for Ohio prior to Tuesday and is one of the best free-throw shooters in the country. Toledo's Ryan Rollins has had 16 games with at least 20 points and has flirted with several triple-doubles.

As long as the MAC champ is one of these three teams, there's going to be a guy who can make the type of impact that Jason Preston did for Ohio in last year's dance.

               

That School Up North

@bkim7957: Well it's definitely not U of M. I wish.

@dahlsheep: Not the NIT bound university of Michigan

@Luke35: Watch out for Michigan

Unsurprisingly, a lot of people have opinions on Michigan right now. Perhaps you heard the Wolverines were in the news this week, and not because they're smack dab on the bubble.

While they certainly aren't a conventional Cinderella candidate, let's touch on the Wolverines since they were brought up a handful of times.

For starters, I don't anticipate the Juwan Howard suspension making much of a difference down the stretch. It will inevitably be a talking point regardless of which direction these final five regular-season games play out, but assistant-turned-temporary-head coach Phil Martelli racked up 444 wins during his time as the head coach at Saint Joseph's. It's not like Michigan is going to be without experienced leadership on the sideline.

And if they do win enough games the rest of the way to get into the tournament (at least two wins, maybe three), the Wolverines could be every bit as dangerous as the UCLA team that went First Four to Final Four last season.

However, it all depends on which versions of their likely one-and-done freshmen show up in March.

Both Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate can be major difference makers. The former had a career-high 19 points in a January win at Indiana. The latter went off for 28 points in a recent win at Iowa. And they put up 14 and 15, respectively, in Michigan's Feb. 10 blowout of Purdue.

But whether either freshman will show up on any given night is anyone's guess. Diabate has yet to string together three consecutive games with an O-rating of 100 or better, and Houstan has had just one such three-game streak—not coincidentally coinciding with Michigan's only three-game winning streak of the year.

As such, trusting both guys to show up in a big way throughout a tournament run seems like a great way to lose your bracket pool. However, there's no question that Michigan can compete with anyone when firing on a all cylinders.

               

The Nation's Longest Winning Streak

@sdsujack1999: South Dakota State. Best three-point shooting team in the country. Undefeated in conference play.

@papi_chulo7: Barring any conference tournament upsets, South Dakota State and Murray State have the potential to make a deep run.

@cole26: Murray State Racers! Great guards and got depth

@Ward4DPOY: Murray State

You might know (or correctly assume) that Gonzaga currently has the longest winning streak in the country.

But did you know the Zags are tied with both Murray State and South Dakota State for that honor? Each of those three teams has won 16 consecutive games dating back to before Christmas.

Are either the Racers or the Jackrabbits a legitimate threat to reach the second weekend, though?

For Murray State, my answer is a resounding yes. The Racers have won 23 of their past 24 games with the lone loss coming at Auburn by a respectable 13-point margin. During that time, they won at Memphis (while the Tigers were at full strength), at Belmont by 22 points and they beat fellow Cinderella candidate, Chattanooga, by double digits.

Yes, most of their wins (17 at last check) were either against Quadrant 4 or non-D1 competition, and, yes, they've had a few close calls as of late against what is predominantly a not-good Ohio Valley Conference this year. But most of the metrics paint Murray State as a team that should win its first-round game (if seeded properly as a No. 7 or No. 8) and a team that could give a No. 1 or No. 2 seed one heck of a scare for a spot in the Sweet 16.

South Dakota State is much more likely to end up as a No. 12 or No. 13 seed (provided it wins the Summit League tournament), but I already pity the No. 4 and/or No. 5 seed that has to figure out how to slow down this offensive assault.

The Jackrabbits are leading the nation in three-point shooting by a "Steph Curry vs. everyone else" sort of margin. They are currently sitting at 45.2 percent as a team; Purdue in second place at 40.3 percent. They could literally shoot 0-of-76 from three-point range against Oral Roberts on Thursday and still be slightly ahead of the Boilermakers.

All six Jackrabbits who have attempted at least 65 three-pointers have made at least 40 percent of them, and half of those guys are at 50 percent or better. Just ridiculous stuff.

They are terrible on defense, though. Like, outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency terrible.

But you know what? So was Oral Roberts last year. Anything's possible when the Summit League champ gets rolling.

              

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.

In theory, every AP Top 25 team should win in the first round of the men's NCAA tournament.

In reality, it never works out that way.

Last March, seven of the teams that finished the year in the AP Top 25 immediately got knocked out of the Big Dance: No. 7 Ohio State, No. 9 Texas, No. 15 Virginia, No. 16 San Diego State, No. 20 Purdue, No. 23 BYU and No. 25 Virginia Tech. In the tourney before that, six ranked teams went down in the first round. And 2018 was the (in)famous year when No. 1 Virginia lost to UMBC.

Even in 2000 and 2007—the only years in which all 20 teams seeded Nos. 1-5 advanced to the second round—there was still at least one loss by a ranked team each year.

So it's not a question of whether there will be a ranked squad that loses in the first round, but rather a question of how many and which ones.

With that in mind, we asked B/R app users to let us know which currently ranked team they think is most likely to lose its first game this March.

Obviously, this week's ranked teams won't necessarily be ranked on Selection Sunday. And, obviously, not knowing the first-round matchups for these squads is a critical missing variable. But these are the AP Top 25 teams with some of the biggest question marks.

           

Down in the Bayou

@nced_3: "LSU. Overhyped. Only significant wins are against Tennessee (later lost to them) and half a Kentucky team. ... Average nonconference schedule the only reason for their record."

It's not at all surprising that No. 19 LSU was the most liked response. (Aside from the one from the person who just wrote "One of them.") The Tigers entered Wednesday's game against Texas A&M having lost consecutively to Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee—the latter of which wasn't even close.

Despite the recent skid, LSU leads the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency with an 81.5 rating that would be the best in KenPom history if the season ended today. (That record belongs to 2018-19 Texas Tech at 84.1.) No opponent has scored more than 70 points against LSU this season.

Of course, that was also true of Virginia in 2017-18 right up until that historic blowout loss to UMBC. And last year's leader in adjusted defensive efficiency (Memphis) didn't even make the NCAA tournament.

Moreover, with the exception of sixth-man extraordinaire Tari Eason, LSU leaves a lot to be desired on the offensive end. The Tigers are well outside the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency, liable to lose a 55-53 type of game in the NCAA tournament.

To LSU's credit, though, it has comfortably handled the caliber of opponent it would face in the first round if seeded in the Nos. 2-4 range. The Tigers beat each of Belmont, Liberty, Ohio and Texas State by a double-digit margin.

But if they continue to struggle and slip down to a No. 5 or No. 6 seed, yeah, that's going to be a popular spot for picking a first-round upset.

        

Boiler Up or Down?

@JuicyJuice69: Purdue. Can't get it done in conference, can't get it done in the tourney.

@biggs17: Pur-who? Ranked in the top 10 and still just as irrelevant as ever.

That's a harsh synopsis of a team that recently won a road game against the closest thing to a full-strength Illinois that we've seen all season.

But I, too, am starting to wonder if AP No. 6 Purdue can be trusted in March.

If the Boilermakers did lose right away, it certainly wouldn't be the first time they busted brackets by doing so. They lost as a No. 4 seed to North Texas just last year and lost as a No. 5 seed to Arkansas-Little Rock in 2016.

In both of those years, Purdue had a pretty dominant frontcourt, but the lack of a true point guard and the inability to force turnovers allowed what should have been an overmatched opponent to hang around just long enough to pull off an upset in overtime.

That sounds a lot like this year's Boilermakers, no?

They're more efficient on offense than usual, and their wide variety of three-point options will ultimately keep me from believing that they could lose to a No. 15 seed. But this is one of the worst defenses coach Matt Painter has ever had in West Lafayette—which makes no sense with Zach Edey's imposing 7'4" presence in the paint.

An off night from the perimeter against a turnover-averse team such as Vermont, Princeton or Oral Roberts could be a major problem.

          

Obligatory Duke Hate

Dozens of commenters: Duke

By an absolute landslide, No. 9 Duke was the most common answer.

But are the Blue Devils actually ripe for an upset, or are there just a bunch of haters hoping to watch Mike Krzyzewski ride off into retirement fresh off one of the most embarrassing losses of his career?

Why not both?

A month ago, the idea of this Duke roster—replete with five potential first-round draft picks and one of the best players in the country (Paolo Banchero)—losing in the first round seemed impossible.

Then the Blue Devils lost at home to Miami, lost at Florida State and darn near lost at home to Clemson.

Now this team feels much more beatable.

In all three of those games, Duke didn't seem as interested as its opponent. In the two losses, it had a combined turnover margin of minus-22. Miami converted on a bunch of backdoor cuts. Banchero was a non-factor until the final eight minutes of regulation against Florida State. And in the close call against Clemson, Duke allowed 14 offensive rebounds (to an opponent that does not thrive in that department) and gave up a handful of transition dunks.

That's a lot of undisciplined/unmotivated stuff from a team that seemed to think it was going to out-talent its foes, only to get out-hustled by them.

Could that happen in the tournament, resulting in another 2012 Lehigh or 2014 Mercer?

I wouldn't pick it, but anything's possible.

                

Trojan Horse; Paper Tiger?

@BobbyBoucher87: USC

Incredibly, I didn't see a single response for No. 25 Davidson, No. 24 Illinois, No. 23 Iowa State or No. 22 Marquette. You would think those lowest-ranked teams would be the most popular answers among people actually trying to be correct.

But if I had to pick the one team from the AP Top 20 most likely to get bounced right away, No. 15 USC is the obvious choice.

For starters, USC's tournament resume is severely lacking. The Trojans' best win of the season was either the neutral-site game against San Diego State or the road game against Washington State, neither of which is anything impressive for a Top 20 team. Factor in the losses to Oregon and Stanford, and USC is staring down, at best, a No. 6 seed right now.

It could be one questionable loss away from plummeting to the bubble.

The bigger concern than the lack of quality wins, though, is that the Trojans rank among the worst in the nation at both free-throw shooting and forcing turnovers, in spite of that weak schedule. And that can be a recipe for disaster in March. Case in point: Ohio State forced just six turnovers and shot 9-of-18 from the charity stripe in its loss to No. 15 seed Oral Roberts last year.

To be fair, USC also struggled in both of those areas last year—not quite to this degree—and it absolutely destroyed its first three opponents to reach the Elite Eight. However, that team had the draft's No. 3 pick (Evan Mobley) in the paint and had him flanked by some senior guards. This year's team simply isn't as imposing or experienced.

          

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames. Statistics via KenPom.com and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted.