2022 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: February 22 Projection of the Field of 68
On Saturday afternoon, the selection committee for the 2022 NCAA men's basketball tournament revealed what its top 16 seeds would have been if the tournament had begun then, with Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona and Kansas on the No. 1 seed line.
Of course, that top 16 only held its form for, oh, three hours before the sport did its thing and the upsets started pouring in. Auburn lost at Florida. No. 10 overall seed Texas Tech won at No. 16 overall seed Texas. No. 11 Tennessee lost at Arkansas not long after No. 12 Illinois won at Michigan State. So even though the committee's top 16 was a nice starting point, things have changed.
Not only did Auburn's loss to Florida force an adjustment along the No. 1 seed line, but it was also huge for the bubble, vaulting the Gators back into the mix for a bid. Oregon had a similar opportunity later at Arizona, but the Ducks squandered an early 12-point lead and remained well on the wrong side of the projected cut line.
For each of the four regions, we will discuss one team in better shape than it was one week ago and another that—though still in position to dance—perhaps isn't as safe as we thought.
Before that, we will start with the bubble, like we always do. And after the region-by-region breakdowns, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order they are. At the end is a list of seeds by conference as a handy reference guide.
One quick "glossary" note: When we take deeper looks at specific teams' resumes, you'll see NET, RES and QUAL. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee and the metric from which quadrant records are derived. RES is the average of the team's resume metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record). QUAL is the average of the quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, KenPom.com and Sagarin).
NET rankings are updated daily here. The others are masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik.
Last Five In
Last Team In: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
19-8, NET: 57, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 58.7
Last week, Notre Dame needed overtime to survive a home game against Boston College before squandering yet another opportunity for a key win in a 79-74 loss at Wake Forest. The Fighting Irish do still have that incredible nonconference home win over Kentucky, but there is not much on their resume despite a 12-4 record in the ACC. Winning these final four regular-season games—vs. Syracuse, vs. Georgia Tech, at Florida State, vs. Pittsburgh—is just about non-negotiable.
Second-to-Last In: Indiana Hoosiers
16-10, NET: 43, RES: 54.0, QUAL: 38.0
If Notre Dame does fall out of the field, Indiana's flimsy resume will look even worse. The Hoosiers have home wins over Purdue and Ohio State, but their third-best win was a neutral-site game against the Fighting Irish. And while none of their 10 losses are terrible, five losses per quality win isn't a great ratio. In order to enter the Big Ten tournament on the good side of the NCAA tournament bubble, the Hoosiers likely need to go 3-1 the rest of the way. Unless they plan on winning their season finale at Purdue, that means victories in the next nine days vs. Maryland, at Minnesota and vs. Rutgers.
Third-to-Last In: North Carolina Tar Heels
20-8, NET: 42, RES: 37.0, QUAL: 36.0
What a whirlwind of a week for the Tar Heels. A home loss to Pittsburgh on Wednesday left them with more Quadrant 4 L's (one) than Quadrant 1 W's (zero). But between Saturday's road win over Virginia Tech and Michigan's temporary climb back into the NET top 30 to make a December home win look even better, North Carolina all of a sudden had a pair of Quad 1 victories. Neither is a marquee victory, but now people need to actually look at its resume and solid metrics before dismissing UNC to the NIT for its dearth of Q1 wins. That said, the Heels may still need to win their season finale at Duke.
Fourth-to-Last In: Memphis Tigers
15-9, NET: 44, RES: 54.0, QUAL: 36.7
Had Memphis won at SMU on Sunday, it would've been a low No. 9 seed or a high No. 10. Instead, the Tigers were outscored 27-3 in a 10-minute stretch in the second half of a blowout loss, leaving them teetering on the bubble once again. So long as they win their next three vs. Temple, vs. Wichita State and at South Florida, though, the season finale vs. Houston figures to be a game for seeding as opposed to one they need to win in order to dance.
Fifth-to-Last In: San Francisco Dons
22-7, NET: 29, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 35.0
San Francisco might have the most deceptive blind resume in the country. As of Sunday morning, the Dons were 4-4 in Quadrant 1, but three of those wins (UAB neutral, Davidson neutral and at Santa Clara) only just barely qualified. They also have two Quadrant 2 wins (vs. Santa Clara, vs. Fresno State) that are narrowly on the better side of that cut line. So they could be one data refresh from falling to 1-4 vs. Q1 and 5-1 vs. Q2 with bad losses to Grand Canyon and Portland.
The moral of the story is that San Francisco better win its season finale at San Diego on Saturday, and it better at least show up for Thursday's home game against Gonzaga. After those games, we will have a much better sense of what it needs to do in the WCC tournament to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998.
First Five Out
First Team Out: Florida Gators
17-10, NET: 49, RES: 52.0, QUAL: 42.7
The win over Auburn was massive and brought the Gators storming back into the at-large conversation. However, it was just their second win over a projected tournament team (Ohio State on a neutral floor), and they have five losses to teams that would not receive an at-large bid today—including an awful 15-point home loss to Texas Southern. To get into the field, Florida probably needs to go 3-1 the rest of the way, which means road wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt and a home win over Arkansas or Kentucky.
Second Team Out: SMU Mustangs
19-6, NET: 46, RES: 42.5, QUAL: 48.3
SMU's star guard Kendric Davis missed Wednesday's road game against Temple, which resulted in a bad loss for the Mustangs. But he was back for 27 points and four steals in Sunday's convincing home win over Memphis. Even if they lose at Houston next weekend, if they win their remaining home games against Tulsa, Cincinnati and Tulane, they would finish the regular season 22-7 with roughly a 2-2 record vs. Q1 and 5-5 vs. Q1/Q2. That might be enough.
Third Team Out: BYU Cougars
19-9, NET: 54, RES: 54.0, QUAL: 62.0
Saturday night's loss at Saint Mary's didn't eliminate BYU from the at-large conversation, but it did at least temporarily knock the Cougars out of the projected field. They must win their remaining home games against Loyola Marymount and Pepperdine. That would get them into the WCC tournament's No. 4 vs. No. 5 quarterfinal against San Francisco or Santa Clara. Either way, that will be effectively a must-win game.
Fourth Team Out: Belmont Bruins
24-5, NET: 55, RES: 55.0, QUAL: 61.7
It hasn't always been pretty or convincing, but Belmont has won 10 consecutive games since Jan. 24, keeping itself in the conversation in advance of Thursday's massive road game against Murray State. Should the Bruins lose, it's "auto bid or bust" territory. Even if they win, Belmont probably needs to beat Morehead State in the OVC semifinals before losing a rubber match with the Racers to feel good about a bid. But it's possible.
Fifth Team Out: VCU Rams
18-7, NET: 58, RES: 37.0, QUAL: 66.0
The predictive metrics are never going to paint VCU in a positive light because its offensive efficiency is dreadful. Yet the Rams have won 15 of their last 18, including a 20-point shellacking of Richmond on Friday night that certainly improved their metrics. Per KenPom win probabilities, there's only about a 12 percent chance that VCU will win its four remaining games. But in the one-in-eight chance that happens, the Rams would likely make the dance.
Also Monitoring: Dayton Flyers
19-8, NET: 52, RES: 59.5, QUAL: 46.7
Well, if Rutgers is in the projected field after its horrid play in November, it's about time we start talking about Dayton. Three Quadrant 4 losses from the first two weeks of the season are the ultimate eyesore, but the Flyers still have that incredible neutral-site win over Kansas and seven wins against the top two quadrants—and have climbed into the top 65 of all six metrics. Should they win out, they would secure the No. 1 seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament and make for an interesting bubble debate throughout championship week.
East Region (Philadelphia)
Greenville, South Carolina
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16 Colgate
No. 8 Wyoming vs. No. 9 TCU
Buffalo, New York
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 Toledo
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Chattanooga
Greenville, South Carolina
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Liberty
No. 6 USC vs. No. 11 Rutgers
Indianapolis, Indiana
No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Oakland
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Davidson
On the Rise: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (New to the Field)
16-10, NET: 80, RES: 51.5, QUAL: 64.7
The Scarlet Knights' ridiculous streak of victories over Associated Press Top 25 opponents came to an end at Purdue on Sunday afternoon, but what a run it was, as they knocked off Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois in succession. The first two put them on the at-large radar, the third moved them close to the cut line and the fourth vaulted them not only into the field but also ahead of the "First Four."
However, because of Rutgers' poor metrics and bad losses to Lafayette, Massachusetts and DePaul early in the season, its work is nowhere near finished.
The Scarlet Knights have road games remaining against Michigan and Indiana as well as home games against Wisconsin and Penn State. And if they don't win at least two, there's a good chance they'll be back on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the Big Ten tournament.
Fading Fast: Wyoming Cowboys (Down One Seed Line)
22-4, NET: 38, RES: 31.5, QUAL: 76.7
While it wasn't a catastrophic week, it certainly wasn't a good one for Wyoming, which is already struggling with the quality metrics.
The Cowboys lost by nine at 11-16 New Mexico last Tuesday and proceeded to win by just eight points at home against 10-15 Air Force on Saturday. As a result, they dropped from No. 31 to No. 48 on KenPom and plummeted out of the top 100 in BPI.
Fortunately for the folks in Laramie, the NET is still a plus, and so are the resume metrics. Wyoming has three Quadrant 1 wins and an 8-2 record against the top two quadrants, so it should be fine as long as it goes at least 3-2 down the stretch. Even 2-3 might be enough provided it isn't followed by an immediate exit from the MWC tournament.
Midwest Region (Chicago)
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Longwood/Norfolk State
No. 8 Murray State vs. No. 9 Seton Hall
Portland, Oregon
No. 4 Houston vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 North Texas
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 14 Wagner
No. 6 Michigan State vs. No. 11 San Francisco
Indianapolis, Indiana
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Princeton
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Creighton
On the Rise: Creighton Bluejays (Up Two Seed Lines)
18-8, NET: 62, RES: 42.5, QUAL: 64.0
Slowly but surely the metrics are starting to come around on Creighton, which recently won four consecutive games against the bottom three teams in the Big East.
But the reason the Bluejays vaulted from "play-in game" territory to a No. 10 seed was an 83-82 victory over Marquette on Sunday afternoon, which was a Quadrant 1 result until the following morning when the Golden Eagles slipped from No. 30 to No. 33 in the NET.
Regardless of where that game lands, Creighton has a season sweep of Marquette (a projected No. 6 seed), a road win over Connecticut, a home win over Villanova and—just in case it comes down to a battle between these two teams for the final spot—a 12-point win over BYU on a neutral floor.
Road games against St. John's and Providence this week could bump Creighton right back to the heart of the bubble if it loses both. For now, though, a 7-7 record against the top two quadrants looks mighty good compared to other bubble teams' marks.
Fading Fast: Michigan State Spartans (Down Two Seed Lines)
18-8, NET: 28, RES: 23.5, QUAL: 25.3
Not that long ago, Michigan State was a fringe candidate for a No. 1 seed. The Spartans started 15-3 with two losses on neutral courts against Kansas and Baylor. After a road win over Wisconsin on Jan. 21, I had Michigan State projected for the top No. 3 seed.
But after losses in four of their last five—with the lone win at home against falling-apart-at-the-seams Indiana—the Spartans would be lucky to even get a No. 6 seed.
They did at least show some heart in trying to battle back from a late 16-point deficit at home against Illinois. That was good to see after they melted down late in the second half of last Tuesday's loss at Penn State.
Still, it was two more losses for a team that is now around 25th in all the metrics. And this losing skid might not be over. MSU's next four are at Iowa, vs. Purdue, at Michigan and at Ohio State. The Spartans could conceivably lose all those games.
South Region (San Antonio)
San Diego, California
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Montana State
No. 8 Colorado State vs. No. 9 Wake Forest
Buffalo, New York
No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Memphis/Notre Dame
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Towson
No. 6 Marquette vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago
Fort Worth, Texas
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 UC Irvine
No. 7 LSU vs. No. 10 Michigan
On the Rise: Michigan Wolverines (Up Two Seed Lines)
14-11, NET: 34, RES: 42.5, QUAL: 28.0
Sunday's loss at Wisconsin got away from Michigan because it went ice cold for an eight-minute stretch of the second half. But the more important result of the past week was the Wolverines' five-point road win over Iowa.
They were our third-to-last team in one week ago, and going 1-1 in two games against the top half of Quadrant 1 was undeniably a step in the right direction. They now have three Quadrant 1 wins, six wins against the top two quadrants and only one particularly bad loss (vs. Minnesota).
As is the case previously discussed with Rutgers, though, Michigan may be moving up, but it still has to prove it belongs in the field during a difficult closing stretch. The head-to-head game with the Scarlet Knights in Ann Arbor on Wednesday is massive, but even a win wouldn't seal the deal for Michigan. It would still need to win at least one of its final four games against Illinois, Michigan State and Iowa at home and then Ohio State on the road.
And after the fracas involving Juwan Howard at the end of Sunday's game, Michigan may need to go through some or all of that closing gauntlet without its head coach.
Fading Fast: Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (Down Two Seed Lines)
21-6, NET: 37, RES: 52.0, QUAL: 39.3
One month ago, Loyola-Chicago was in fantastic shape for an at-large bid.
The Ramblers were 14-2 with the two losses in close games on a neutral court against Michigan State and Auburn. They also had a solid neutral-site victory over San Francisco and respectable road wins over Vanderbilt and DePaul. I had them projected for a No. 7 seed at the time and probably would have been even higher on the Ramblers were it not for the selection committee's history of under-seeding teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. (See: Loyola-Chicago's No. 8 seed despite a No. 10 NET ranking just last year.)
Since then, though, they've been playing with fire and have now perhaps been burned too many times.
They lost a home game to Missouri State, road games to Drake and Bradley and then a home game against Drake on Saturday. It's not so much that any of them were bad losses but rather repeated blown opportunities to prove anything to the committee, as the Ramblers have gone 1-4 in their five toughest MVC games to date.
Loyola-Chicago may still get an at-large bid, but if it loses again before the MWC title game, I wouldn't bet on it.
West Region (San Francisco)
Portland, Oregon
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Nicholls State/Texas Southern
No. 8 Iowa State vs. No. 9 Boise State
San Diego, California
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Iona
No. 5 Connecticut vs. No. 12 Indiana/North Carolina
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 New Mexico State
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 San Diego State
Fort Worth, Texas
No. 2 Texas Tech vs. No. 15 South Alabama
No. 7 Xavier vs. No. 10 Miami
On the Rise: Texas Tech Red Raiders (Up One Seed Line)
21-6, NET: 8, RES: 11.0, QUAL: 11.7
Texas Tech was No. 10 overall in the top 16 reveal, but then the Red Raiders won at Texas for their sixth victory against the top half of Quadrant 1.
They are the only team in the country with at least five such victories, and it's hard to believe they weren't already a No. 2 seed considering their 3-1 record against the committee's bottom No. 1 seed (Kansas) and top No. 2 seed (Baylor). I believe that marquee victory at Texas was good enough for the Red Raiders to climb from No. 10 to No. 8 on the committee's overall seed list, even though neither of the two teams previously directly in front of them suffered a loss.
So, yes, moving Texas Tech up to a No. 2 means dropping Duke down to a No. 3 despite its 18-point win over short-handed Florida State on Saturday night. But if you're a Blue Devils fan, wouldn't you rather have the No. 3 seed in Philadelphia in Auburn's region as opposed to the No. 2 seed in San Francisco in Gonzaga's region?
Fading Fast: Xavier Musketeers (Down Two Seed Lines)
17-9, NET: 25, RES: 32.5, QUAL: 31.0
What's wild is that Xavier has only fallen to a projected No. 7 seed.
Despite less-than-great home losses to St. John's and DePaul during this 3-6 stretch, the Musketeers' resume looks good. All five of their Quadrant 1 wins are against the bottom half of Q1, but that's still a lot of upper-echelon victories. And those recent losses to DePaul and St. John's were Xavier's only missteps against teams not projected to dance.
If it continues to sputter to the finish line, though, things could get dicey—especially if the Musketeers lose their regular-season finale at home against Georgetown. And it bears mentioning that Xavier's only wins over surefire NCAA tournament teams were home games against Connecticut, Ohio State and Marquette.
The X-Men play at Providence on Wednesday and host Seton Hall on Saturday, both of which are more or less coin flips. Lose them both, and they might slide to the opposite side of a projected No. 7 vs. No. 10 first-round game.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
No. 4 Auburn Tigers (24-3, NET: 10, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 9.7)
Auburn was No. 2 overall in the selection committee's top 16 reveal, and committee chair Tom Burnett said there was a lot of discussion about whether Auburn or Gonzaga was more deserving of the top spot. But then the Tigers went out and lost to bubble-y Florida, and I had a tough time deciding whether Auburn or Baylor is more deserving of the fourth No. 1 seed.
It's a close call, but we'll default to the projected SEC champion as opposed to the projected Big 12 runner-up while acknowledging there are a lot of "prove yourself" games left for both squads. Saturday will help further frame this No. 1 seed picture, as Baylor hosts Kansas and Auburn plays at Tennessee.
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks (22-4, NET: 5, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 5.7)
Kansas became the first team to reach 10 Quadrant 1 wins with a 13-point road victory over West Virginia on Saturday evening. But the Jayhawks are going to need about five more such wins to remain on the No. 1 seed line. As just mentioned, they have a massive road game against Baylor on Saturday. They also play at TCU next Tuesday and host Texas on March 5 in advance of a Big 12 tournament in which every game is a chance for a quality win.
With the way Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, David McCormack and Jalen Wilson have been playing, though, it sure feels like Kansas can beat anyone anywhere and is rapidly becoming one of the top candidates to win it all.
No. 2 Arizona Wildcats (24-2, NET: 2, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 3.0)
Arizona got a scare from Oregon on Saturday night, but it was nice to see it rally from an early deficit and also nice to get a glimpse of what the Wildcats can do in a close game. Prior to that, Arizona had played 13 consecutive games (12 wins) decided by at least nine points each.
As mentioned last week, there's a reasonable chance Arizona would supplant Gonzaga as the No. 1 overall seed if both teams win out, but the selection committee would most likely still award the West Region to Gonzaga since the South (San Antonio) and West (San Francisco) regional sites are basically equidistant from Tucson.
No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (23-2, NET: 1, RES: 11.5, QUAL: 1.0)
Gonzaga has won 16 consecutive games by double digits, and it's getting to the point where anything less than a Final Four appearance would be a major disappointment. But the Zags close the regular season with their two most difficult conference games: at San Francisco on Thursday and at Saint Mary's on Saturday. If that streak of wins by double digits continues through those two challenges, Gonzaga would probably end up with a No. 1 seed even with a loss in the WCC tournament.
Seeding by Conference
In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the top 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each team's overall seed, broken down by conference. "First five out" teams are included in italics.
AAC (2): 16. Houston; 45. Memphis; 70. SMU
ACC (5): 9. Duke; 35. Wake Forest; 38. Miami; 46. North Carolina; 48. Notre Dame
Big 12 (6): 3. Kansas; 5. Baylor; 8. Texas Tech; 17. Texas; 29. Iowa State; 36. TCU
Big East (7): 10. Villanova; 15. Providence; 20. Connecticut; 24. Marquette; 28. Xavier; 33. Seton Hall; 40. Creighton
Big Ten (9): 7. Purdue; 11. Illinois; 12. Wisconsin; 19. Ohio State; 22. Michigan State; 27. Iowa; 39. Michigan; 42. Rutgers; 47. Indiana
Mountain West (4): 31. Colorado State; 32. Wyoming; 34. Boise State; 41. San Diego State
Pac-12 (3): 2. Arizona; 14. UCLA; 23. USC
SEC (6): 4. Auburn; 6. Kentucky; 13. Tennessee; 18. Alabama; 21. Arkansas; 25. LSU; 69. Florida
West Coast (3): 1. Gonzaga; 26. Saint Mary's; 44. San Francisco; 71. BYU
Other (23): 30. Murray State; 37. Davidson; 43. Loyola-Chicago; 49. North Texas; 50. Chattanooga; 51. Iona; 52. South Dakota State; 53. Vermont; 54. Toledo; 55. New Mexico State; 56. Towson; 57. Wagner; 58. Liberty; 59. UC Irvine; 60. Princeton; 61. Oakland; 62. South Alabama; 63. Colgate; 64. Montana State; 65. Longwood; 66. Norfolk State; 67. Nicholls State; 68. Texas Southern; 72. Belmont; 73. VCU
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference, KenPom and Bart Torvik and accurate through the start of play Monday, unless otherwise noted. Records accurate through the start of play Tuesday.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.