Edwin Diaz

One might say that the New York Mets have left nothing to chance with their offseason dealings, but that would imply that Steve Cohen is finished pulling from his $17.5 billion fortune to finance a payroll that's already in record territory.

What if he's not?

Even as is, the receipt for the Mets' free-agent shopping comes to a capital-G, capital-T Grand Total of $461.7 million. That's for six players with varying degrees of star power, headlined by three-time American League Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on a record-tying $43.3 million-per-year deal:

• Re-signed CF Brandon Nimmo for eight years, $162 million
• Re-signed RHP Edwin Díaz for five years, $102 million
• Signed RHP Justin Verlander for two years, $86.7 million
• Signed RHP Koudai Senga for five years, $75 million
• Signed LHP José Quintana for two years, $26 million
• Signed RHP David Robertson for one year, $10 million

According to FanGraphs, it all adds up to a projected Opening Day payroll of $335 million that towers over the Los Angeles Dodgers' record-setting $280.8 million Opening Day payroll from last season. And if anything, it undersells what the Mets are set to spend.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently floated $400 million as a possibility for the Mets' expenses for 2023, and they're already kinda-sorta there. For luxury-tax purposes, they're slated to open next season with a $349.6 million payroll. That's far beyond even the $293 million barrier that they call "the Cohen tax."

The bottom line, as summarized by David Lennon of Newsday:

Steve Cohen has invested roughly $430 million (including luxury tax) in #Mets for '23 season.

NFL salary cap: $208M
NBA salary cap: $123M
NHL salary cap: $82.5M

Cohen is changing the game when it comes to an owners' financial commitment to winning.

— David Lennon (@DPLennon) December 11, 2022

Say what you will about Cohen, so long as you don't say he's unserious about delivering the Mets' first World Series championship since 1986. He's not spending all this money just for kicks.

And yet the Mets still have more to do before they can declare themselves the winners of the 2022-23 offseason, much less the team to beat in 2023.

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The Mets Haven't Yet Crossed Off All Their Needs

That the Mets have already done so much on the offseason market isn't exactly surprising, and for two reasons.

It just wouldn't have made sense for Cohen—whose net worth dwarfs every other MLB owner's—to take his foot off the gas after what befell his team in 2022. His $282 million investment in payroll did yield 101 wins in the regular season—but only one in the playoffs. Suboptimal, as they say.

Otherwise, suffice it to say that you can't not go to work when you stand to lose Nimmo, Díaz, Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Adam Ottavino via free agency.

Cut to now, and the Mets have not only avoided disaster but also deflected it. Their rotation, in particular, is arguably upgraded even sans deGrom, Bassitt and Walker.

Here is a look at the Mets potential starting rotation for 2023 👀🍎 pic.twitter.com/hhfdorfDIX

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) December 11, 2022

In putting up a 1.75 ERA as a 39-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery, Verlander effectively etched another line in his Hall of Fame plaque. Quintana had a 2.93 ERA in his own right, while Senga and his "ghost fork" were responsible for a 1.89 ERA in Japan.

With Díaz—who struck out 118 of the 235 batters he faced in 2022—back in the closer's role and Robertson there to set up, the bullpen also looks solid. The offense, meanwhile, consists of the same Nimmo-, Francisco Lindor- and Pete Alonso-led group that tied for fifth in scoring last season.

Nonetheless, FanGraphs' WAR projections for 2023 still put the Mets (51.3) a hair behind the San Diego Padres (52.2). Break it down position by position relative to the average projection, and the Mets' shortcomings are easy to spot:

The Mets are fine on the pitching front, but those red bars at catcher, third base and designated hitter underscore a general need for at least one more bat. Maybe two, given that Mike Puma of the Post isn't wrong to have doubts about the outfield.

For that matter, SNY's John Harper likewise isn't wrong in thinking that even the bullpen "still needs work." Because why settle for solid when lights-out is better?

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If the Mets Want to Play It Safe

Though the Mets still have the option of plucking, say, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson or Carlos Rodón from the top of the free-agent market, let's assume for now that Cohen has already gone far enough to not go full "drunken sailor."

Fortunately, the next tier of the market still features two capable left fielders who would fit well on the Mets: Andrew Benintendi and Michael Brantley. Both are contact-oriented hitters the likes of which the Mets quite like, while Benintendi has the added benefit of being a Gold Glove Award defender.

What a catch by Andrew Benintendi 👏 pic.twitter.com/JOl0h1fsiY

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 14, 2022

If the Mets are comfortable shifting Jeff McNeil, the reigning National League batting champ, into a super-utility role, they could otherwise tab somebody else to play second base. To this end, Jean Segura and Adam Frazier are two more high-contact hitters with effective gloves.

Eduardo Escobar seems less well-suited for a super-utility role, but former Met Justin Turner would be a sensible target if they would rather have someone else at third base. He doesn't have much in the way of power anymore, but he can still do patience and contact.

Then there are various platoon options, including Brandon Drury, Evan Longoria and J.D. Martinez from the right side and Matt Carpenter and David Peralta from the left. Each was quite good against opposite-side pitching in 2022:

• DH Matt Carpenter: 204 wRC+ vs. RHP
• UTIL Brandon Drury: 160 wRC+ vs. LHP
• 3B Evan Longoria: 124 wRC+ vs. LHP
• DH J.D. Martinez: 175 wRC+ vs. LHP
• LF David Peralta: 116 wRC+ vs. RHP

As for relievers, Ottavino is still out there. But if the Mets would rather save money, Michael Fulmer might do just as well in the right-handed specialist role that Ottavino filled in 2022. Righty batters hit just .188 against the former Mets prospect last season.

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If the Mets Want to Go for Broke

Yet even as unlikely as another seismic move may seem, at this point we should all know better than to put such a move past the Mets.

To wit, there are still persistent whispers that they are in on Correa:

Steve Phillips on MLB Network: #Giants and #Twins the favorites for Carlos Correa but the #Yankees and #Mets could "dabble" as well.

— Joe Pantorno (@JoePantorno) December 12, 2022

This would require convincing Correa to move from shortstop to third base in deference to Lindor, yet the word last offseason was that he would be willing to make that move for the "perfect situation." With the right offer, the Mets could perhaps be that team.

Just think of a Correa-Lindor partnership on the left side of the infield. In addition to two of Puerto Rico's finest, they have six All-Star nods, three Gold Gloves and 339 home runs between them. They're also just 28 and 29 years old.

The Mets could otherwise kick the tires on All-Star center fielder Bryan Reynolds, who wants out of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Especially if they were to put No. 1-ranked catching prospect Francisco Álvarez on the table, the Mets could meet Pittsburgh's reported "[Juan] Soto-type" asking price.

Heck with it. Let's throw another superstar-caliber hitter out there: Rafael Devers.

The Boston Red Sox want to extend the slugging third baseman, but the frankly insulting offer they made Xander Bogaerts before he left for San Diego bodes ill for extension talks that haven't been going well to begin with.

Should the writing on the wall that Devers isn't going to stay with Boston beyond his walk year in 2023 get even easier to read, the Mets would be an ideal trading partner if the Red Sox decide it's time to go the Mookie Betts route. If not Álvarez, the Mets could dangle well-regarded (and, notably, MLB-ready) third base prospect Brett Baty.

If Correa and Reynolds are far-fetched ideas, then Devers is surely a farther-fetched one. Yet it doesn't seem like a reach to label the odds of one of these things happening as "non-zero." And, well, can anyone really blame us for thinking so big?

Cohen and the Mets clearly have the resources to make big things happen. And with him and team so firmly in the mood to make such things happen, it would be a disappointment if they stopped before absolutely nothing was left to chance.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

Record-breaking New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge reportedly headlines a group of nine MLB players expected to receive contracts of at least $100 million this offseason.

One player, New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz, already joined the nine-figure club by signing a $102 million extension. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported other members of the group expected to join Diaz and Judge via free agency, which opens Thursday at 5 p.m. ET:

• SS Trea Turner (Los Angeles Dodgers)
• SS Carlos Correa (Minnesota Twins)
• SS Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox)
• SS Dansby Swanson (Atlanta Braves)
• OF Brandon Nimmo (New York Mets)
• SP Carlos Rodón (San Francisco Giants)
• SP Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)

Nimmo is the only name on the list that may catch some people by surprise given his modest counting stats across seven seasons with the Mets. He's recorded just 63 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 608 career appearances.

That said, the 29-year-old center fielder gets on base at a high rate (.385 career on-base percentage) and plays solid defense (six outs above average in 2022, per FanGraphs).

Agent Scott Boras said Wednesday a "majority" of teams have already called him about Nimmo.

"You are looking at a guy that there are no center fielders in our game that are available," Boras told reporters. "And then you add leadoff to that and then you add ... on-base percentage to that, and he's an excellent defender and then also he can play in New York. When you have those elements that are there, he becomes a very integral part of what we found for a team to win 100 games. He's a very proven commodity and there are very few that can replace him."

Otherwise, two intriguing storylines early in free agency will be whether the Yankees can keep pace in the Judge sweepstakes and which star shortstop signs first to set the market at the position.

New York can't afford to lose Judge and expect to remain a top-tier contender in the American League. He carried the club's offense for extended stretches in 2022 en route to setting the new AL home run record with 62.

As Boras alluded, there aren't many great options available in center field, and even the dropoff from Judge to Nimmo is rather significant. So the ability to re-sign the 6'7'' slugger is a make-or-break situation for the Yanks.

Meanwhile, all four of the top-tier shortstops available should surpass the $100 million mark if they're willing to sign long-term deals.

Swanson, who's often ranked fourth on the list and could sign first to help set the baseline for the others, finds himself in a similar situation to Freddie Freeman last offseason. He's spent his entire career with the Braves but hits the market without a new deal.

"Business is business, man. It's not always the fun part about the game," Swanson said last week on 92.9 The Game. "I wish it was just one plus one, but it never seems to be that way."

Freeman left to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Swanson may follow him out the Truist Park door, leaving Atlanta with a void at shortstop.

All told, a lot of money is going to get spent over the next few months and, given the high-end talent available, the clubs willing to open their checkbooks could put themselves at the forefront of the 2023 championship chase.

The New York Mets may want to find additional help to improve their roster for 2023, but the organization's top priority this offseason will be retaining its own key free agents.

Per SNY.tv's Andy Martino, the Mets are "prioritizing" re-signing Edwin Díaz and Brandon Nimmo over their other free agents.

It's interesting that Diaz and Nimmo appear to be at the top of New York's internal free-agent list.

Jacob deGrom could also hit free agency if he opts out of his deal as expected. He pitched well down the stretch with a 3.08 ERA in 11 starts, but he's also 34 and has only thrown 156.1 innings over the past two seasons combined.

Both Díaz and Nimmo figure to be two of the most sought-after free agents. Nimmo is arguably the best outfielder on the open market after Aaron Judge. The 29-year-old hit .274/.367/.433 last season. He posted on-base percentages over .400 three times in four years from 2018 to 2021.

Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported last week the Colorado Rockies have Nimmo on their "preliminary wish list" of players, with contract estimates in the range of $115 million-$120 million over five years.

Even though it sounds like the Mets plan to make an aggressive push to keep Nimmo, general manager Billy Eppler told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of The Show Podcast they would be comfortable moving Starling Marte from right to center field.

Díaz's free agency coincides with his career year in 2022. The right-hander had a 1.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 118 strikeouts and 32 saves in 61 appearances.

Teams have been more diligent about not spending big money on relievers. Only six closers had a salary of at least $10 million in 2022, including Díaz ($10.2 million).

Heyman reported last month that Díaz is looking to "break new ground" with his contract. Aroldis Chapman's five-year, $86 million deal with the New York Yankees is the richest deal for a closer in MLB history, per Heyman.

The Mets already project to have a $238.9 million payroll next season, per Spotrac, and owner Steve Cohen has shown a willingness to spend big in order to give the team a chance to win a World Series.

New York finished the 2022 season with 101 wins, second-most in franchise history. It lost in the NL Wild Card Series to the San Diego Padres.

The electricity in Citi Field as the trumpets of "Narco" by Blasterjaxx and Timmy Trumpet exploded over the PA system, his 118 strikeouts, an ERA of just 1.31, and 32 saves all defined Edwin Díaz in 2022.

Arguably the most captivating closer in baseball, the 28-year-old was a major part of New York's 100-win season, all while throwing just two different pitches, his arsenal being small but effective.

TIMMY TRUMPET LIVE FOR EDWIN DIAZ'S INTRO 🎺🎺🎺

Absolute scenes at Citi Field.

📽️: @joonlee | #LGMpic.twitter.com/fqiJReKX9j

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) September 1, 2022

His ability to stunt offense, silence bats and close things out for the Mets built confidence in the team and management. The theatricality of his walk-up only served to spark excitement in the ballpark.

For all that Díaz accomplished in 2022, a season in which he transformed into the best closer in MLB, the Mets must prioritize his contract and ensure he returns to an organization still chasing its first World Series title since 1986.

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High Risk, High Reward

There is reason to be hesitant in regards to paying Díaz a huge amount of money.

There is no guarantee that he can replicate the season he put together in 2022. We have seen closers rewarded based on expected output, only to fall into mediocrity and never quite reach the levels they had prior.

Aroldis Chapman and Craig Krimble come to mind.

Maybe Díaz falls into that discussion, and Mets fans lament the time the franchise gave a closer a ton of money that could have been better utilized elsewhere.

Or, maybe Díaz continues to ride his highly effective two-pitch arsenal to success. Perhaps he stomps to the mound, strikes six batters out in a row and fuels the Mets to the postseason success that eluded them this year.

If that is the case, New York should feel very good about its future.

Díaz had a lights-out 2022, striking out 17.13 batters per nine innings and allowing less than half of a home run in that same frame. Only two of his 10 inherited runners scored, proving he could pitch his way out of a jam and prevent the other team from capitalizing on hits.

He has great control, too, managing just two wild pitches in the 62 innings in which he appeared.

He won 75 percent of his games and had a minuscule ERA of 1.31, good for second in the Majors.

Díaz was the closest thing to a sure thing there was when it came time to close out a victory. He has earned the contract he will inevitably get; and if he can play up to it, the Mets are going to be in every game and face fewer scenarios in which a lead is blown and a win evaporates before their eyes.

Edwin Diaz is the best closer in baseball. It’s not an opinion. If you disagree you’re wrong. 🎺🎺🎺

— KFC (@KFCBarstool) July 30, 2022

Put some respect on his name. Edwin Diaz is the best closer in baseball and it’s not particularly close.

— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) July 27, 2022

There will be some who question whether the Mets should save that potential $100 million and throw it in the direction of underrated hitter Brandon Nimmo or ace Jacob deGrom.

Nimmo was a solid hitter and a major part of what the 100-win team looked to do offensively. He may not be a power hitter who is going to push the ball deep and out of the park, but his on-base percentage was a very good .367 and his OPS was .800, placing him among the top 50 hitters in the league.

He will be difficult to replace and the Mets should weigh the possibility of finding a way to sign Díaz and bring Nimmo back.

This brings us to the elephant in the room: Jacob deGrom and what will likely be a monster contract.

There is an argument to be made that the 34-year-old should take precedence this offseason. When healthy, he is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation and a guy who has earned a check with lots of zeros and commas.

Unfortunately for him, the key phrase in that statement is "when healthy."

When looking at the many pieces the Mets front office will have to maneuver to field a team best suited to win a title, it will have to weigh whether deGrom is worth the $40 million AAV, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, that he could attract from potential suitors.

Without doubt, he is the best pitcher available and has more than earned the right to opt-out of his current deal and test the market. In doing so, though, he is likely to bring an end to his run in Gotham because the idea of giving that sort of money to a guy who has only pitched in 74.7 innings over the last three years is hardly appealing.

Are the Mets likely to find someone like deGrom this offseason? No, but they could find a cheaper option who will appear more consistently and can score a few quality wins. Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and even Mets free-agent-to-be Chris Bassitt fit that description.

At the very least, an option who can put his side in a position for the $100 million man Díaz to march to the mound and earn another win for a team whose World Series aspirations have never been higher.

Coming off a stellar 2022 season, New York Mets closer Edwin Diaz is reportedly hoping to land a game-changing contract when free agency opens.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Diaz is looking to reset the market for closers with a record-breaking deal.

"Word is he’s looking to 'break new ground' off his amazing season, and presumably that means higher than Liam Hendriks’ record $18 million closer salary, which seems likely," Heyman wrote. "The Mets understandably do have him as a priority among their seven outstanding free agents."

Diaz established himself as one of the best closers in the majors this season with 32 saves, a 1.31 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and 118 strikeouts in 62.0 innings pitched. He gained popularity this season from his signature walkout song.

Heyman noted that Diaz could benefit from a thin closer market, as Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is the only proven veteran expected to be available on the open market this year. He also listed Diaz as the top priority for the Mets in free agency, over the likes of starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker.

Last month, ESPN's Jeff Passan said on The Pat McAfee Show that Diaz could "become the first 100-million-dollar closer." He noted that the 28-year-old is a marketable star who can increase interest from fans.

"I think part of it [is] when you factor in, if you're a baseball team, the idea that you can market your closer, that you can market the ninth inning as something that everybody wants to watch," Passan said. "I want someone to come up with an app that says, 'The closer is coming in right now, I want to watch him shove for one inning.'"

The Mets had a strong regular season but fell short of their title aspirations when the San Diego Padres bounced them in the National League Wild Card round. Retaining Diaz would go a long way to ensuring the team is back in position to aim for a better finish next season.