Early Predictions for the 2022 MLB Offseason

Major League Baseball's 2022 postseason isn't even finished yet, so by definition, it's still too early to be talking about the offseason.

But since it is right around the corner, we're going to risk making some predictions anyway.

These concern which six free agents will sign the most lucrative contracts, and with which teams. Yet we also threw in five other predictions that cover a manager hiring, a key opt-out decision, which players will and won't be traded and a possible mega-extension.

What did we base our predictions on? Reporting from insiders for the most part. But as always, we also ultimately followed our gut.

Prediction: Ron Washington

There's more than one managerial opening in MLB right now, but the best opportunity surely resides with the Chicago White Sox.

Tony La Russa announced on Oct. 3 that he will not be returning to the dugout in 2023. This was officially for health reasons, but the Hall of Famer's ouster might have happened anyway following a 2022 season in which his managing too often attracted scrutiny amid a disappointing 81-81 performance.

That many of the same players who spearheaded playoff runs in 2020 and 2021 are still in place on the South Side should nonetheless interest prospective candidates for La Russa's chair. As those go, general manager Rick Hahn knows what he wants:

Houston Astros bench coach Joe Espada has already interviewed for the gig, but what really gets our attention is a report from ESPN's Jesse Rogers that the White Sox have also reached out to Atlanta about third base coach Ron Washington.

Washington's reputation as a great motivator precedes him, and he'd bring instant credibility as a guy who managed back-to-back AL pennant winners with the Texas Rangers in 2010 and 2011 and helped Atlanta win the World Series in 2021. As such, the White Sox should absolutely hire him.

Prediction: He won't opt out

Nolan Arenado could have opted out of his contract after 2021, but his decision not to was understandable in the context of that year's good-not-great performance.

This time around? Different story. The 31-year-old played at an MVP-caliber level in 2022, notably setting career highs with a 154 OPS+ with 7.9 rWAR. Surely, the $144 million he's owed through 2027 is a substantial bargain for a player like that.

And yet, both Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jon Heyman of the New York Post have hinted that Arenado won't jump at the chance to head out into the open market. Following the Cardinals' early exit from the playoffs, even Arenado himself doesn't sound in a hurry to do so:

In addition to being comfortable with his surroundings, it could be that the seven-time All-Star simply values all the winning he's done in St. Louis. He's already enjoyed as many trips to the playoffs in two years with the Cardinals as he did in eight years with the Colorado Rockies.

Plus, sticking with his current contract might actually make sense for Arenado. As Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs wrote, "it seems unlikely that there's a $250 million deal out there for [Arenado]" based on his age and how he projects for the future.

Prediction: They won't be traded

When Arte Moreno, the Los Angeles Angels' owner since 2003, announced in August that he would be looking into selling the franchise, all sorts of speculation hell broke loose.

Namely, about the futures of 2021 AL MVP Shohei Ohtani and three-time MVP Mike Trout. Would one of them be traded? Would the other? Both?

These are still juicy questions even now, but more so in theory than reality. Especially where Ohtani goes, as Nightengale reported that the Angels don't have any interest in moving the two-way superstar after securing him at a $30 million salary for 2023.

If that is indeed the case, we feel comfortable taking a wild guess that Trout won't be going anywhere, either. Maybe if he demands a trade to a place where he has a better chance of winning after eight straight postseason-less years in Anaheim, but it's hard to imagine him doing that. It's just not his style.

Besides, an announcement of interest in a sale is a far cry from an actual sale. Unless Moreno is going to rush the process, perhaps it's possible that he'll try to go out with a bang by investing in one last contention push for 2023.

Player: Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

Acquiring Team: Los Angeles Dodgers

As for players who will get traded, we'll go out on a limb that the best will be Corbin Burnes.

Nobody is reporting that the Brewers will be shopping the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, but the possibility can't be ignored based on how extension talks between the two sides are going. Or not going, as Burnes told Adam McCalvy of MLB.com in September:

Burnes also had some loaded comments in reference to the surprise trade of Josh Hader: "For anyone who isn't on a long-term deal, once you get into your later years of arbitration, anything can happen. We saw it with Hader. We might see it this offseason."

Burnes, 27, made $6.5 million this year and is projected to earn $11.4 million in his penultimate year of club control in 2023. As they're otherwise well-stocked with pitching, it doesn't seem out of the question that the Brewers will sell high rather than pay him.

If so, we'll have our eye on the Dodgers as the No. 1 suitor for Burnes. Between their elite farm system and a lengthy list of impending-free-agent starters that includes Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney, they'll have both the means and the need to pursue Burnes if he becomes available.

Player: Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox

Contract: 10 years, $260 million

There are all sorts of possible contract-extension candidates out there, but Rafael Devers seems to be in the best position to cash in.

With the Red Sox coming off a 78-84 season and Devers now just one year from free agency, there's been some speculation that he would take the Mookie Betts route out of town this winter. Not so, says Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom:

Per Tom Westerholm of Boston.com, Bloom had previously elaborated in September by saying: "With Raffy, we are in a different position as an organization, where I think our talent base is in a much better spot. And we are not committed in the same way, financially, to as many players as we were at that time."

Bloom's views on the club's books and farm system check out, yet he'd better shift his valuation of Devers. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the club viewed Matt Olson's eight-year, $168 million deal with Atlanta as a model for a deal with the two-time All-Star.

To extend Devers, the Red Sox would surely have to beat the 10-year, $212 million deal that Atlanta did with fellow 25-year-old third baseman Austin Riley in August. If they're willing to make that leap, they should be able to get something done.

Destination: Boston Red Sox

Contract: 7 years, $210 million

In addition to a competitive offer, one thing that might entice Devers to stick with the Red Sox long-term is if they also lock up Xander Bogaerts.

Devers wants it to happen, and ditto for Boston manager Alex Cora. According to Chad Jennings of The Athletic, Cora said this of the four-time All-Star on Oct. 1: "I hope he's my shortstop for however long I want to manage."

It'll take a new contract to keep Bogaerts in Boston, as his offensive prowess alone justifies opting out of the three years and $60 million he has left on his current deal. The 30-year-old may not be in the market for a $300 million megadeal comparable to those of Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor, but $200 million would be a fair ask.

At the outset of 2022, Boston's recent signing of fellow All-Star shortstop Trevor Story looked vaguely like a preemptive move in anticipation of Bogaerts opting out and leaving town. Less so now, though, as Story's throwing issues stood out even among second basemen.

All the more reason for the Red Sox to want to keep Bogaerts around. And as Bloom said, the financial flexibility that wasn't there a couple of years ago is there now.

Destination: Chicago Cubs

Contract: 10 years, $325 million

The Minnesota Twins' signing of Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3 million contract in March was the mother of all surprises, but it's now clear that he has a new deal in mind.

As ESPN reported, Correa told the Puerto Rican newspaper El Nuevo Día on Wednesday that he will be opting out of his contract, saying: "With the year that I have had, my health and my being at the best moment of my career at 28, that is the right decision."

Perhaps it's not impossible that Correa will pursue another short-term deal, but the smart money is on him trying to at least match the 10-year, $325 million contract that Seager signed with the Rangers last December. He is, after all, still younger than Seager and coming off one of his finest offensive seasons.

Even at that price, Correa should have options. The San Francisco Giants could be in the market for a shortstop, according to Nightengale, and ditto for the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs, per another report.

The Cubs stick out, as they're a deep-pocketed team with relatively clean books that also reportedly pursued Correa last winter. This time around, signing him may be as simple as convincing him that a return to contention can happen in the near future.

Destination: Philadelphia Phillies

Contract: 9 years, $290 million

If there's one thing that puts Trea Turner at a disadvantage in a potential pursuit of a $300 million deal like Seager has and Correa may want, it's his age.

Though the 2022 season would have technically been Turner's age-28 campaign if he'd been born a day earlier, he's nonetheless 29 years old. That could limit how many years his next contract runs for, perhaps to a point where he'll have to (gasp!) settle for single digits.

Apart from that, the two-time All-Star is undeniably in a position to cash in. All he's done over the last four seasons is hit .311 with 162-game averages of 26 home runs and 35 stolen bases. By rWAR, he's been the second-best shortstop in MLB.

In addition to the Dodgers, the same teams that make sense for Correa also make sense for Turner. And none more so than the Phillies.

After all, they don't only need him for a shortstop position that posted just 0.6 rWAR this season. They also need him to take over in the leadoff role for Kyle Schwarber, who hit for a ton of power but otherwise bears responsibility for the spot's modest .306 OBP.

Destination: Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract: 5 years, $100 million

Nearly six years ago, the New York Yankees set the bar for relief pitchers by signing Aroldis Chapman to a five-year, $86 million contract.

That's the mark Edwin Díaz will be looking to beat following a campaign in which he posted a 1.31 ERA and struck out half the batters he faced. And he might beat it by plenty, as ESPN's Jeff Passan suggested in September that the two-time All-Star could be worth $100 million.

There's no shortage of bullpens that would benefit from having the 28-year-old flamethrower. Simply going off which ones struggled with win probability added in 2022, the Giants, Phillies, White Sox, Twins and Red Sox are fits for Díaz.

But if a team is going to spend $100 million on a closer, chances are that team will be a World Series contender that otherwise already has everything else. That's what has us thinking Dodgers.

With Craig Kimbrel having lost the job in September, the Dodgers don't even have a closer right now as they seek their second championship in three years. That, plus the fact that Kimbrel and others will be coming off the books this winter, makes them uniquely situated to make a splash for Díaz.

Destination: New York Mets

Contract: 3 years, $150 million

Jacob deGrom's potential date with free agency via the opt-out in his contract was a topic of conversation after the Mets were eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, but he understandably didn't want to talk about it:

Nevertheless, all the writing on the wall says that the two-time Cy Young Award winner will indeed opt into the open market. The man himself has said it's the plan, and a September report from Heyman indicated that's still the case.

Because he's 34 and injuries have limited him to just 26 starts over the last two seasons, there's no denying that deGrom will be a risky play in free agency. That's without even considering his price, which Heyman wrote could be $50 million per year.

Which teams have that kind of money to throw around? Not many, but the Mets are definitely one of them.

Owner Steve Cohen really is that rich, and he said in August that the team will do "whatever we can" to retain deGrom. If that involves one-upping the club's three-year, $130 million deal with Max Scherzer, then it's hard to see deGrom leaving Queens.

Destination: San Francisco Giants

Contract: 8 years, $288 million

Between his American League-record 62 home runs and various other league-leading marks, Aaron Judge has had himself some kind of walk year.

Where does he go next? Probably back to the Yankees, per Heyman's read of industry expectations. In September, Judge himself may have unsubtly hinted as much:

Yet Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner is nothing if not cautious, so it's fair to wonder how far beyond the club's ill-fated eight-year, $230 million offer he'll be willing to go. As he's already 30 and has been prone to injuries, it's not as if Judge is devoid of risk, after all.

If the answer to that question proves to be "not very," then there will be a window for Judge's hometown team to swoop in and grab him.

Suffice it to say that ESPN's Buster Olney isn't alone in seeing the Giants as a fit for the Linden, California native. They're set to have as much (or more) financial flexibility as anyone this winter, in part because they're frankly overdue to splurge on the kind of star they need to be building around.

Plus, it wouldn't hurt the Giants' chances that Judge would be allowed to grow a beard with them.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.