NCAA Tournament

The 2020 NCAA men's basketball tournament is fast approaching.

Do you have your March Madness champion identified yet?

It's fine if you don't, since there's been so much turnover at the top of college basketball this season. But Selection Sunday will be here before you know it, so it's time to start assessing the field.

We'll get the ball rolling by examining the latest championship odds (courtesy of Caesars Palace), highlighting a couple of worthwhile wagers and predicting which school will be celebrating in early April.

                    

Top Championship Odds for March Madness

Kansas: +600

Gonzaga: +750

Kentucky: +1000

Baylor: +1100

Dayton: +1300

Duke: +1400

Louisville: +1400

Michigan State: +1500

San Diego State: +1500

Florida State: +1800

Arizona: +2500

West Virginia: +2800

Villanova: +3000

Oregon: +3300

Auburn: +3500

Ohio State: +3500

Maryland: +4000

Penn State: +4000

Michigan: +4500

Creighton: +5000

Houston: +5000

Texas Tech: +5000

                

Best Bets

Arizona: +2500

No, folks, we're not joking.

Sure, it hasn't looked great of late for the Wildcats, who have lost three straight—including a double-digit loss to unranked USC. But tournament foes will nevertheless have trouble matching the collective talent of this team.

NBADraft.net sees three top-20 2020 draft picks on this roster: point guard Nico Mannion (sixth), wing Josh Green (15th) and big man Zeke Nnaji (17th). All three are freshmen, so their production can ebb and flow. But when they all have a rhythm, good luck keeping them in check.

Nnaji tops the team in points (16.2) and rebounds (8.6). Mannion leads the way in assists (5.3). Green is first in steals (1.6), second in boards (4.6) and third in scoring (11.9). If they get enough supporting shooting, their stars and top-20 defense could make for a lethal combo in the tourney.

              

Creighton: +5000

The Bluejays are coming in hot, having won 10 of their last 12 games and defeating four ranked teams in the process. If they're merely serviceable on defense, they can take down anyone.

It's all offense, all the time with Creighton. Four different players average more than 11 points per game. Three of them also shoot better than 40 percent from distance: Ty-Shon Alexander (17.0 points, 40.2 three-point percentage), Marcus Zegarowski (15.9, 40.7) and Mitch Ballock (12.0, 43.3). Together, the trio has 239 triples, which would tie for 104th as a team total.

"When we're loose and just having fun, it's a thing of beauty," Ballock told reporters.

An explosive offense can carry a club in this tournament, and Creighton's is basically a bundle of dynamite. KenPom.com slots the Blue Jays fifth in the nation in offensive efficiency.

                  

Houston: +5000

KenPom sees Houston as the 11th-best team in the country. So, when oddsmakers aren't charging 11th-best-team-in-the-country prices, that's always going to catch our attention.

Granted, the American Athletic Conference isn't exactly the best league in college basketball, and maybe the increased competition level of March Madness will be more than the Cougars can handle. But if you're talking about a 22-7 team with top-25 efficiency marks on offense (21st) and defense (22nd), don't you have to at least consider pouncing on +5000 odds?

Under head coach Kelvin Sampson, Houston has developed a notable toughness and avoided glaring weaknesses. Guards Marcus Sasser and Caleb Mills can erupt at any time. Chris Harris Jr. and Brison Gresham form a dominant shot-blocking duo at the center spot. Nate Hinton helps with spacing and rebounding from the wing.

Houston leads the nation with a 56.7 percent rebound rate, per TeamRankings.com, and has five different players averaging at least nine points. As ESPN's Kyle Soppe noted in January, the past five national champs have all had top-25 rebound rates and at least five players clearing nine points a night.

                 

Championship Prediction: Kansas

Don't be fooled into thinking the best predictions are the boldest. Accuracy is the key in the prognosticating game, and the Jayhawks simply look a cut above the rest this season.

There isn't a better guard-big man combo in college basketball than Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike. Three ESPN scribes recently laid out their top picks for the John R. Wooden Award; all three had Dotson in their top five and two had Azubuike, too.

"I'll take Kansas guard Devon Dotson in that third spot," Myron Medcalf wrote. "He's amazing and underrated. ... At No. 4, I've got his teammate Udoka Azubuike, who is averaging a double-double and 2.6 BPG. He's an unstoppable force who has changed the best team in the country."

Kansas ranks seventh in offensive efficiency and second on the defensive end. No one else has top-10 marks on both sides.

If there's a knock on this team, it might be a lack of three-point shooting. But that doesn't matter if teams have no answer for Dotson's skill and decision-making, or Azubuike's brute force at the basket. If Isaiah Moss and Christian Braun are hitting their shots, they might take care of any spacing issues themselves.

The 2020 college basketball season has been defined so far by its unpredictability.

Seven schools have held the No. 1 ranking in the AP Top 25 poll, including Kansas, which is currently in the top spot. The Jayhawks moved to No. 1 for the second time this season when they beat Baylor, the previous No. 1, on Feb. 22.

Last week, nine ranked teams lost to unranked opponents, which led to only Kansas, No. 5 San Diego State, No. 9 Maryland and No. 18 Iowa staying in the same spot in the rankings this week, according to the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com).

That's been par for the course this season, as teams have struggled to hold top spots in the rankings, with plenty of unranked teams scoring upset wins.

Considering how wild and erratic the regular season has been, March Madness could be filled with upsets and shocking victories this year.

Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament takes place March 15. Here's a look at the rest of the upcoming schedule, followed by some early predictions.

        

2020 NCAA Tournament Schedule

March 17-18

First Four games in Dayton, Ohio

      

March 19-20

First-round games at eight different sites

          

March 21-22

Second-round games at eight different sites

          

March 26-27

Sweet 16 games in Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles and New York City

           

March 28-29

Elite Eight games in Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles and New York City

            

April 4

Final Four in Atlanta

          

April 6

National championship game in Atlanta

           

Predictions

Virginia makes some noise again in March

Last year, the Virginia Cavaliers were dominant. They went 29-3 during the regular season and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, then won six straight games to capture the first national championship in program history.

It hasn't been as easy for Virginia this season. It has lost seven games, all of which came between Dec. 22 and Feb. 8. However, the team has bounced back since then, winning seven straight games to build momentum heading into the ACC tournament.

In March, the Cavaliers' low-scoring, defensive-minded style of play typically yields positive results. They have notched at least one NCAA tourney win in six of the last seven years, and they've reached the Sweet 16 three times during that stretch.

Plus, Virginia has several key players back from last year's championship squad. Its two leading scorers, Mamadi Diakite (13.6 points per game) and Kihei Clark (10.7), both started in last year's national championship game.

The Cavaliers may not win another national title, but as a likely mid-tier seed, they should make another decent run and continue their recent string of program success.

               

Kansas makes best run as a No. 1 seed

Only three teams have defeated Kansas this season, and all of them were quality opponents: Duke, Villanova and Baylor.

The Jayhawks also avenged the loss to the Bears when they played them again a month later, notching an impressive Big 12 road victory.

On Saturday, Kansas plays at Texas Tech in its final game before the Big 12 tournament, and it should win to improve to 28-3. That should put it in control of its own destiny for not only a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tourney, but also the No. 1 overall seed.

Considering how well the Jayhawks have played of late—they've won 15 straight games and not lost since Jan. 11—they appear to be in good shape to win the Big 12 tournament for the third time in five seasons. And once they reach March Madness, they typically fare well, after reaching at least the Elite Eight three straight years from 2016-18.

Led by Devon Dotson (18.2 points per game) and Udoka Azubuike (13.1 points and 10.3 rebounds per game), Kansas will be a dangerous No. 1 seed during March Madness that could continue its stellar play and roll through the early rounds.

If any No. 1 seed could make a run to the Final Four and beyond this year, expect it to be the Jayhawks.

          

Northern Iowa becomes this year's Cinderella

With no automatic qualifiers yet handed out by conference tournaments, it can be a bit difficult to predict potential Cinderella teams this early in March. However, Northern Iowa has a strong chance of being this year's surprise team in the NCAA tourney.

The Panthers have had March Madness success before. They reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 9 seed in 2010, and they won their first-round games in each of their past two appearances in 2015 and 2016.

Ben Jacobson is in his 14th season as Northern Iowa's head coach, so he knows what it takes to guide a team to postseason success.

This season, the Panthers are 25-5 and have clinched the regular-season championship in the Missouri Valley Conference. They won 16 of their first 18 games, which included an impressive road victory over Colorado on Dec. 10.

Sophomore guard AJ Green is a talented scorer averaging 19.7 points per game. If he gets hot during March Madness, then it could lead to a deep tournament run for Northern Iowa.

The Panthers should certainly have that chance, as they'll likely win the MVC tournament and have momentum entering the NCAA tourney, where anything can happen.

Every year leading up to Selection Sunday, every Division I men's basketball team in the nation hopes to get a bid to the NCAA tournament.

Teams that win their respective conference tournaments and/or are ranked in the AP Top 25? They're definitely in.

Those that aren't virtual locks to get into March Madness? They are known as "bubble teams."

Here's an early look at four teams projected to be on "bubble watch" looking to nab one of the 36 at-large bids to the Big Dance.

         

March Madness 2020 Schedule

Selection Sunday: March 15

First Four: March 17, 18

First Round: March 19, 20

Second Round: March 21, 22

Sweet 16: March 26, 27

Elite 8: March 28, 29

Final Four: April 4

National Championship: April 6

“There’s not a better three weeks in sports." 🙌

What does #MarchMadness mean to you? pic.twitter.com/7hTx4FDfGa

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 2, 2020

              

Last Four In

Texas

Barring an outright victory in the Big 12 tournament, the Texas Longhorns are one of the teams that should be on the right side of the bubble.

Riding high on a four-game win streak, including big victories over West Virginia and Texas Tech, the Longhorns are making a great case for their inclusion.

Texas is still without injured starters Jericho Sims and Jase Febres, but it likely only needs to win one of their last two games to get the call.

Andrew Jones, who made his return this season after sitting out most of last year due to leukemia, has been nothing short of inspirational just months after finishing his chemo treatment in August.

In the last four games, he is averaging 19.3 point per game and was named the co-Big 12 player of the week on Monday. If he can lead this team to a bid, it would add another layer to the tourney's history of Cinderellas.

               

Standord

What a difference a big win makes. After felling Colorado 72-64 this past Sunday, Stanford may have found its way back to the bracket.

The Cardinal's Tyrell Terry took home the Pac-12 men's basketball Freshman of the Week for dropping a career-high 27 points against Utah and 12 points against the Buffaloes.

If Terry and Oscar da Silva can help Stanford find a way to beat Oregon State (Thursday) or No. 13 Oregon (Saturday) to wrap up the regular season, they'll have enough momentum to squeak into the Dance.

Getting past the Beavers should be doable for the Cardinal, but should they defeat the Ducks and have a strong showing in the conference tourney, they'll definitely get an at-large bid.

                 

Cincinnati

Losing 68-55 to No. 21 Houston threw a big wrench in Cincinnati's plans for getting an invite for the tournament, but all hope is not lost.

The Bearcats' 79-67 win over South Florida was a much-needed victory. Led by Keith Williams' 30 points and Tre Scott's 21 points and 11 rebounds, Cincy was able to overcome a six-point deficit in the first half to stave off the Bulls. 

If the Bearcats can log another win against Temple and go deep in the AAC tournament, they will no doubt pad their NCAA resume enough for strong consideration when Selection Sunday arrives.

              

Yale

Yale (22-6) has the best record in the Ivy League Conference at 10-2, but if it doesn't win the conference tournament outright, it could be on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday.

The Bulldogs' signature win was the 54-45 thriller over Clemson in December.

The last two games of the regular season have Yale facing Dartmouth and longtime rival Harvard.

Tommy Amaker's Crimson bested the Bulldogs 78-77 last month and if they sweep the series, the latter's dreams for nabbing an at-large bid will likely be dashed.

If leading scorer Paul Atkinson can propel Yale to a 2-0 finish and a deep run in the Ivy postseason, the Bulldogs might find themselves off the bubble and in the tourney.

         

College basketball, your time in the spotlight starts now.

It's the month of March, meaning we're mere weeks away from the madness that is the NCAA men's basketball tournament. While there's plenty to be determined between now and Selection Sunday, there's relative stability at the top—thanks in no small part to Baylor surviving an overtime scare from Texas Tech on Monday.

After laying out all the must-knows of the 2020 tournament schedule, we'll spotlight our four favorites to be crowned as No. 1 seeds.

               

March Madness 2020 Schedule

Selection Sunday: March 15

First Four: March 17, 18

First Round: March 19, 20

Second Round: March 21, 22

Sweet 16: March 26, 27

Elite 8: March 28, 29

Final Four: April 4

National Championship: April 6

                  

No. 1 Seed Predictions

San Diego State

Somewhere, Kawhi Leonard is smiling proudly and maybe awkwardly laughing, too.

His old collegiate club is steamrolling basically every squad put in front of it. The Aztecs have a single blemish on their otherwise pristine 28-1 record—their lone loss was a three-point defeat at the hands of UNLV last month—and while some might knock their lack of competition in the Mountain West, no one should underrate this group.

KenPom.com grades San Diego State as the 11th-best offensive team in the country. The defense is the nation's seventh-most efficient. The Aztecs are one of only three programs—along with blue bloods Kansas and Duke—to hold top-12 efficiency ranks at both ends of the court.

The Aztecs have four players averaging double figures, led by junior point guard Malachi Flynn's 17.6 per game. The 6'1" playmaker also paces them in assists (5.1) and steals (1.8). Junior Matt Mitchell and senior Yanni Wetzell form a relentless frontcourt pairing, and junior Jordan Schakel can catch fire from distance at any time (63-of-145, 43.4 percent).

                 

Gonzaga

Just like last season, the Zags hold the top spot in KenPom's offensive efficiency rankings. And while the defense has dipped a bit (12th then, 39th now), the point production is so consistently dominant that it can carry a less-than-elite unit at the other end.

Gonzaga has 29 wins in 31 tries. Other than losses against Michigan (at the Battle 4 Atlantis in November) and BYU (on the road against the 15th-ranked Cougars), the Bulldogs have usually bulldozed their opponents. Their average game is a 20.1-point win; San Diego State ranks second in average margin of victory at 16.2 points.

"Few teams anywhere can match their talent—there are four, maybe five pros on Mark Few's roster—and nobody can match their nation-leading adjusted offensive efficiency," ESPN's Jordan Schultz wrote.

The Bulldogs come at teams in waves with six double-digit scorers, five of whom have drilled at least 30 threes. Sophomore big man Filip Petrusev nearly averages a double-double (17.8 points, 7.8 rebounds), and senior guard Ryan Woolridge shines across the board (10.1 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.5 assists). The Zags sit second in field-goal percentage (51.5) and sixth from three (39).

               

Baylor

The Baylor Bears may have found their way to college basketball's center stage, but the spotlight didn't always center on Waco—or the players thriving there.

This is a self-made powerhouse to the core. Second-leading scorer MaCio Teague opened his college career at UNC Asheville. Third scorer and top shot-blocker and rebounder Freddie Gillespie joined the club as a walk-on transfer from Division III Carleton College (Minn.).

"It's something we mention probably every single day," Gillespie said, per Drew Davison of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "We have guys that transferred, came from JUCO—I came from D-3—guys that may have been overlooked. So we pride ourselves on working hard and doing the work that other people may think that they're too good for."

That hard work has translated to a 26-3 record (15-2 in the Big 12), along with college basketball's fourth-best adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bears may have the nation's top backcourt in Teague and Jared Butler, Gillespie anchors the interior and Mark Vital thrives in his glue-guy role.

             

Kansas

The Jayhawks are the nation's only team to rank among the 10 best in offense (eighth) and defense (first). It's no wonder, then, that they are KenPom's top team overall and the recipient of all 64 first-place votes in the latest AP poll.

But this team does have one massive question mark—the health of 7'0", 270-pound senior center Udoka Azubuike. The big man injured his ankle early in Kansas' 62-58 win over Kansas State on Saturday and spent the weekend in a walking boot.

"He didn't practice or anything," Kansas coach Bill Self said. "We'll see if he can do anything [Tuesday]. The status on him would still be considered questionable probably at best for Wednesday."

Azubuike might be the most important player in the country. He's averaging a double-double (13.1 points, 10.3 rebounds), shooting an absurd 74 percent from the field and contributing a career-best 2.6 blocks per game. Kansas' formula can't function without him.

Assuming this is only a minor ailment, though, the Jayhawks could be the top overall seed come Selection Sunday. They may not have much floor-spacing—Isaiah Moss is the only player among their top five minutes played shooting better than 34 percent from deep—but they have a behemoth in Azubuike, an electric point guard in sophomore Devon Dotson (18.2 points, 4.0 assists) and a disruptive wing rotation that all contributes to their third-place ranking in field-goal percentage against (37.6).

Saturday is Leap Day, and there are a bunch of teams on the bubble for the 2020 men's NCAA tournament looking to celebrate this weekend with a "leap forward" type of marquee victory as we head into March.

Believe it or not, there are conference tournaments starting Tuesday. That means Selection Sunday is rapidly approaching and teams are almost out of time to prove they belong in the Big Dance.

For many, it's a do-or-die weekend. Either they need a big win to vault into the projected field or they need to avoid a loss that could destroy their case for a bid. Either way, there are critical contests all around the country as we close in on the end of the regular season.

Without a handy-dandy guide, it's almost too much to try to keep track of which games are most important.

Ask and you shall receive.

We've broken this bubblicious weekend down into five digestible chunks to get you prepared for the biggest and/or most intriguing games in each window.

             

First Wave Saturday (Tips Before 3 p.m. ET)

While it's the smallest chunk of the day, this one has a little bit of everything and is certain to start the weekend off with a bang.

In the "Colossal Opportunity" category, we've got Providence at Villanova (noon ET).

The Friars had one of the worst Novembers imaginable, suffering four bad losses without anything resembling a quality win. But they have stormed back into the tournament mix with an incredible February, featuring road wins over Butler and Georgetown, as well as home victories against Creighton, Seton Hall and Marquette. If they can close out the month with a road win over Villanova, it would just about punch their ticket.

Then there's the "Just Stop the Bleeding" game with NC State hosting Pittsburgh (noon ET). Since the huge win over Duke, the Wolfpack have lost back-to-back games to Florida State and North Carolina. Beating Pitt wouldn't assure them a bid, but a loss might knock them back out of the conversation for good.

But the big bubble games in this window are Texas at Texas Tech (noon ET) and Florida at Tennessee (2 p.m. ET).

Neither the Longhorns nor the Volunteers are particularly close to the projected field, each ranking outside the top 60 in NET and KenPom. A win Saturday could change that in a hurry, though—more so for Texas than for Tennessee.

Not only could Rick Barnes' current program and his former program take a big step forward, they could inject Florida and Texas Tech with serious bubble trouble.

The Gators have been hovering around the No. 9-12 seed lines for the past two months and either need to avoid a misstep in Knoxville or win the season finale at home against Kentucky. Losing both would almost certainly knock them onto the wrong side of the projected cut line heading into the SEC tournament.

The Red Raiders just recently became a bubble team after losses to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. They are now 18-10 with only two particularly impressive wins—vs. West Virginia; Louisville on a neutral floor—and they will wrap up the regular season against Baylor and Kansas next week. They're still somewhat comfortably in the field for now, but a home loss to Texas could be a killer.

If Texas Tech and Florida both win, not much changes. Those two would likely enter the home stretch in the same position they're in today, and the two losing teams would remain out of sight, out of mind. If both lose, though, it's bubble chaos.

            

Middle Wave Saturday (Tips 3:30-7 p.m. ET)

There are 11 games in this window with potential bubble implications; however, most of them figure to be "Keep the Status Quo" affairs.

Five tournament hopefuls from the mid-major ranks compete in this window, but each of those bubble teams is playing a game it should win: East Tennessee State vs. Western Carolina (4 p.m. ET), VCU vs. George Washington (4 p.m. ET), UNC Greensboro at Chattanooga (4:30 p.m. ET), Northern Iowa at Drake (6 p.m. ET) and Richmond vs. Massachusetts (6 p.m. ET). All five of those opponents currently rank outside the KenPom top 150, so those are all must-win games.

On the major-conference side of things, we've got two SEC teams trying to stay alive with road games they should win. Mississippi State plays at Missouri (3:30 p.m. ET) followed by Arkansas at Georgia (6 p.m. ET). Neither of those teams is in the projected field at the moment, but wins would at least keep them within the first few spots among the outside looking in.

There's also a big opportunity for Oklahoma at West Virginia (4 p.m. ET). The Mountaineers have lost five of six, so the Sooners might be able to steal a huge Quadrant 1 win. However, despite its recent struggles, WVU is almost unbeatable in Morgantown, so Oklahoma will likely lose and remain on the bubble.

Thus, the real intrigue in this block of games is contained to the ACC, where Syracuse hosts North Carolina (4 p.m. ET), Notre Dame plays at Wake Forest (4 p.m. ET) and Virginia gets a home game against Duke (6 p.m. ET).

The argument for Syracuse still being in the hunt for an at-large bid is flimsy at best, but the Orange have stunned us before by sneaking in with a weak resume. They need to win out, though, so a home loss to the sub-.500 Tar Heels would be a deal-breaker.

Notre Dame's argument isn't any better, as the Fighting Irish are 3-9 against the top two Quadrants, with road games against Syracuse, Clemson and Georgia Tech serving as their "best" wins. But they are still in a decent enough place in the metrics—No. 56 in both NET and KenPom as of Wednesday afternoon—that a win in Winston-Salem followed by a home win over Florida State on Wednesday would make things much more interesting.

Virginia, on the other hand, is in solid shape for a bid and could effectively seal the deal with a home win over Duke. The Blue Devils have lost two straight road games (NC State and Wake Forest) and haven't looked great away from home in nearly two months. Of particular note for this game against Tony Bennett's pack-line D, Duke is 21-of-90 (23.3 percent) from three-point range on the road thus far in February. If that trend continues, it's hard to see how the Blue Devils score enough to win.

           

Late Wave Saturday (Tips 8 p.m. ET or Later)

The cream of the bubble crop for this weekend is Arizona State at USC (8 p.m. ET).

A month ago, this game barely would've been on the radar. USC was 17-4 and sitting pretty in the projected field; Arizona State was 12-8 and barely worth looking at. But the Sun Devils have caught fire with seven straight wins, surging into a projected No. 8 vs. No. 9 game for the NCAA tournament, while the Trojans have lost five of seven in the process of falling smack dab onto the bubble.

An Arizona State win would likely lock in the Sun Devils and would push the Trojans into a "Needs to show up in a big way for the Pac-12 tournament" predicament.

However, if USC is able to protect home court and get the W, it will be in good bubble standing heading into the season finale at home against UCLA, and it will force Arizona State into a situation where it probably needs to win both of its remaining home games against Washington and Washington State to feel secured of a bid. Either way, significant implications.

Elsewhere, Utah State at New Mexico (10 p.m. ET) is a big one, with the Aggies looking to finish the regular season on a seven-game winning streak. They were left for dead six weeks ago, but they've been treading water and benefiting from the many bubble teams that have shot themselves in the foot repeatedly during that time. If they win this one and avoid an immediate exit from the MWC tournament, they should be dancing.

There are also three late games involving teams with a faint bubble pulse: UCLA vs. Arizona (10 p.m. ET), Memphis at Tulane (8 p.m. ET) and South Carolina at Alabama (8:30 p.m. ET). UCLA is seeking a marquee win. Memphis is hoping to avoid yet another bad loss. And the Gamecocks-Crimson Tide game smells like a "Loser goes to the NIT; winner probably eventually does too" type of game, but it might be crucial for the victor.

Lastly, this probably isn't quite a bubble game, but Saint Mary's at Gonzaga (10 p.m. ET) should be a good one. The Gaels seem to be safely in, but if they get smashed in Spokane like they did in Moraga earlier this month (90-60), it's going to raise some eyebrows.

       

Sunday Afternoon (Tips Before 3 p.m. ET)

For as much action as there is Saturday, Sunday might end up being the more noteworthy day for the bubble picture. There are only seven games on the list, but they're all huge.

We'll start the day with Cincinnati at Houston (1 p.m. ET).

The Bearcats need this one, in large part because their resume currently consists of two Quadrant 1 wins and four Quadrant 3 losses. Last Sunday's home win over Wichita State kept Cincinnati narrowly in the projected field; winning at Houston would be a huge boost.

A Cincinnati win would also force us to question how certain we are about Houston's spot in the field. Recent losses to SMU and Memphis have done the Cougars no favors. Aside from a season sweep of Wichita State—a team very much on the bubble in its own right—what has Houston done this season?

If the Cougars win (which they should), they probably become a lock, and Cincinnati probably then would need to make it at least to the AAC semifinals before suffering its next loss in order to have a strong case for a bid.

Around halftime of that game, three others will begin. Rhode Island vs. Saint Louis, Indiana at Illinois and Xavier at Georgetown each tip off at 2 p.m. ET.

For Rhode Island, that's a must-win home game against a better-than-most-realize opponent. Saint Louis twice gave Dayton a run for its money, put up a solid fight against Auburn and has blown out Richmond and VCU in its only games against those bubble teams. A loss to the Billikens would mean the Rams need to win their subsequent home game against Dayton to have any hope.

For Indiana, that's probably more of an opportunity to improve seeding than a game it needs to win in order to dance. But that's assuming the Hoosiers will be able to win their home games against Minnesota and Wisconsin next week. If they blow this chance against the Illini and then give one (or both) of those subsequent games away, they might be in trouble.

And then Xavier at Georgetown is quite the bubble bonanza. The Musketeers are a projected No. 10 seed, while the Hoyas reside among the first four out. A Xavier win would uncomplicate matters slightly, as it would move closer to lock status while effectively knocking Georgetown out for good. But if the Hoyas win, both Big East squads may enter the final week of the regular season in the last four in.

            

Sunday Night (Tips After 3 p.m. ET)

Only three games in this window, but each one is potentially massive.

Wichita State plays at SMU (4 p.m. ET) in a game the Shockers absolutely cannot afford to lose. Their best win of the season thus far was either a home game against Oklahoma or a road game against Oklahoma State, neither of which is that impressive. They are 0-4 against Cincinnati and Houston, plus road losses to Temple and Tulsa. They're likely one more regular-season loss away from the NIT.

Then at 6 p.m. ET, it's Stanford hosting Colorado in another borderline must-win game for the bubble team. The Cardinal might be able to sneak in by going 1-2 down the stretch, but 2-1 would increase their odds drastically. Thus, if they're unable to win this home game against the Buffaloes, they may well need to win both of next week's road games against Oregon State and Oregon—which isn't likely.

Then to wrap up the weekend's bubble action, it's Minnesota at Wisconsin at 6:30 p.m. ET. The Golden Gophers are just about finished after blowing a big lead in a loss to Maryland on Wednesday night, but maybe, just maybe, they could still sneak in by winning out at Wisconsin, at Indiana and vs. Nebraska. That would put them at 16-14 and at least give them some semblance of hope heading into the Big Ten tournament.

So there you have it. Pop yourself about 20 hours worth of popcorn and prepare to watch some bubbles pop too. One way or another, we're going to have a different—hopefully clearer—picture of the NCAA tournament field come Monday morning. There are merely 30 or so important games standing between now and then.

                  

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.

During the 2018 offseason, the NCAA made the switch from Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) to the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) as the primary sorting means for the NCAA men's basketball tournament selection committee, and it was immediately championed as an incredible decision.

We still don't fully know how the NET is calculated—we've been told the factors considered, but no one knows how they're weighted—however, anything is better than the archaic RPI, right?

Some would argue that scoring margin and efficiency are factored too heavily into the NET rankings, though everyone can probably agree they ought to be included in some capacity.

Not caring whether a team won by a single point at the buzzer or by a 40-point blowout was the fatal flaw of RPI, and the NET generally gives a much better indication of which teams are best at basketball as opposed to which athletic directors were best at putting together schedules that would curry favor with the RPI.

That said, not every fan is enamored with the NET, because they root for teams that would be in much better tournament position—or they root against teams that would be in much worse shape—if the selection committee still used RPI.

Using RPI and NET rankings from the start of play Wednesday, let's look at a few teams (and one entire conference) that long for the days of yore when RPI reigned supreme.

                 

Auburn Tigers (RPI: 5, NET: 27)

Auburn has a 24-4 record, five Quadrant 1 wins and a combined 12 victories against the top two quadrants, so it might be hard to fathom why the Tigers are all the way down at No. 27 in the NET—a full 18 spots behind Florida State, which has marks of 24-4, five and 13, respectively. (It's even worse on KenPom.com, where Auburn is ranked No. 39.)

As far as the RPI is concerned, the Tigers belong in the mix for a No. 1 seed. They are instead teetering on the border between the No. 4 and No. 5 seed lines in the Bracket Matrix, reflecting the NET's lack of admiration for them.

Auburn can thank its mediocre margin of victory for that disparity.

The Tigers have won five overtime games (which count as one-point wins to the NET regardless of how wide the margin gets in the extra time) and have had three other Quadrant 3 contests (at South Alabama, vs. Iowa State, vs. Vanderbilt) decided by four points or fewer. Meanwhile, all four of their losses were by double digits against opponents that are, at best, on the NCAA tournament bubble.

Combine the year-to-date scoring margin of 8.0 points per game with the fact that all five of Auburn's Quadrant 1 wins have come against the bottom half of that group, and it's little wonder why the formerly 15-0 Tigers never got the respect that typically coincides with that type of start.

Auburn will get into the tournament comfortably, though. Others might not be so lucky. 

            

Cincinnati Bearcats (RPI: 26, NET: 54)

The ironic thing about Cincinnati's suffering under the NET this year is that this is the team I constantly brought up in previous seasons as most likely to try to "cheat" the scoring-margin system by destroying bad opponents.

In the first four games of the 2015-16 season, the Bearcats had an average winning margin of 42.3 points against dreadful competition. It was a similar story two years later when they played four of their first seven games at home against KenPom sub-300 opponents, winning those "contests" by 39.0 points.

They always seemed to be the primary team tricking KenPom's ratings into believing they were better than they actually were, and they somewhat proved it by repeatedly losing during the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament.

But this year, Cincinnati put together a much more formidable nonconference schedule, resulting in more losses and more close calls than usual. It only has two nonconference wins by more than 12 points, and it might miss the NCAA tournament because of it.

Even in AAC play, though, the NET is doing a disservice to Cincinnati. As ESPN's Mark Adams noted via Twitter on Monday, Cincinnati's 67-64 home win over Wichita State on Sunday resulted in a jump from 33 to 26 in the RPI and a drop from 53 to 54 in the NET.

The Bearcats also won their road game against the Shockers by just one point, defeated Houston by two and have played in seven overtime games, winning four and losing three. Two-thirds (18 of 27) of their games have been decided by single digits.

The four Quadrant 3 losses to Colgate, UCF, Bowling Green and Tulane are the main reason Cincinnati is smack dab on the bubble, but its affinity for playing in nail-biters isn't helping matters.

Two years ago, this 18-9 record against a top-15 strength of schedule and a spot just outside the RPI top 25 would have made the Bearcats a near-lock for the NCAA tournament. Ranking outside the top 50 in the NET might mean the NIT, though.

          

Furman Paladins (RPI: 42, NET: 78)
Akron Zips (RPI: 48, NET: 79)

As a rule of thumb, the NET has not been kind to the top mid-majors.

Northern Iowa's NET (46) is double its RPI (23). East Tennessee State's gap (39 vs. 29) isn't quite as wide, but that could be the difference between an at-large bid and a trip to the NIT if the Buccaneers falter in the SoCon tournament. Liberty (51 in NET; 58 in RPI) is the only one in the top 60 of either metric that's happy with the switch.

But the two mid-majors that are suffering the most are Furman and Akron.

Neither the 20-6 Paladins nor the 19-7 Zips have done anything that impressive. They have a combined record of 1-9 against the top two Quadrants, with Furman's home win over ETSU as the lone outlier in a sea of losses. That both rank in the RPI top 50 is a testament to why we needed a new metric.

Nevertheless, those two minimal-loss squads would have been in the at-large conversation two years ago. In all likelihood, the selection committee would have made note of their lack of quality wins and quickly moved on to other, more deserving candidates, but they would've at least received a cursory glance as top-50 teams.

Now that they're both ranked outside the top 75, though, it is surely "auto bid or bust." 

         

The Top 6 Teams in the Atlantic 10

The A-10 is typically a lock for multiple bids. It sent at least three teams to the Big Dance 11 consecutive times from 2008 to 2018. And while it only got two teams in during the NET's debut year, two is still multiple bids.

That streak might end, though. Dayton is in the mix for a No. 1 seed, but Rhode Island and Richmond are the only other viable at-large candidates, and both are hovering around the bubble.

That would be a different story if we were still using RPI.

There are six teams in the A-10 with fewer than 10 losses, and all six have worse NET rankings than RPI rankings.

Dayton is No. 4, but it would've been No. 2 in the old system. Rhode Island (22 in RPI; 38 in NET), Richmond (32 and 50), Duquesne (77 and 95) and Saint Louis (49 and 72) are each roughly 20 spots worse in the NET than in RPI. And St. Bonaventure takes the cake with a bubble-worthy RPI rank of 69 and a never-going-to-be-remotely-considered 113th in the NET.

That sextet is a combined 121 spots worse in the NET, and there's no question it is having a negative impact on the conference's reputation.

For example, take Richmond's loss at St. Bonaventure this past weekend. It was interpreted by most as a possible at-large-bid-killing disaster, considering the Bonnies are well outside the top 100 in the NET. But as far as the RPI is concerned, that was merely a Quadrant 1 flesh wound.

The most likely culprit of this divide was a lack of quality nonconference wins.

Duquesne went 10-2 with neither a top-100 win nor a true road victory. Saint Louis is in the same boat, except it went 11-2 and did win one road game (at Boston College). St. Bonaventure had an impressive neutral-site victory over Rutgers, but it also had bad losses to Canisius, Siena and Ohio. And Richmond (lost to Radford) and Rhode Island (lost to Brown) didn't fare as well in the first seven weeks of the season as is expected from most at-large teams.

They each won at least eight nonconference games, but aside from Dayton, they didn't bring good resumes into league play. And since Dayton hasn't been willing to share the wealth at all, going 15-0 in A-10 games, the league's second and third tiers haven't gained traction.

        

The NET Lovers

There's also a flip side to this coin. If Cincinnati, Rhode Island and Richmond would all be comfortably in the field while Akron, Furman and Saint Louis would at least be somewhere in the conversation as top-50 teams, which teams in (or close to) the projected field would be in significantly worse shape under the old system?

For starters, almost the entire Big Ten is thankful for the NET.

We can't seem to write off Purdue (NET No. 37) or Minnesota (No. 44), even though they are both sitting at .500 overall. But in the RPI—where the Boilermakers are No. 96 and the Golden Gophers are No. 99—they would've been dead and buried at least two weeks ago.

And those are just the big ones. Ohio State, Illinois, Penn State, Michigan, Rutgers and Michigan State would each be 15-23 spots worse in the RPI.

Remember that note about the A-10's top six teams having a combined NET rank 121 spots lower than their RPI?

For the 14-team Big Ten, its combined NET rank is 323 spots higher.

The Big Ten has seven teams in the NET top 30, but it only has one team (Maryland) in the RPI top 30. That change would greatly hurt the conference as a whole because it would diminish the quantity of Quadrant 1 games.

In the NET, the top 12 teams in the Big Ten have a combined Q1 record of 68-92. Switch to RPI, and that plummets to 34-74. On a per-team basis, that's 4.3 fewer Quadrant 1 games and 2.8 fewer Quadrant 1 victories.

There would still be 10 Big Ten teams with a realistic chance for an at-large bid, but it would probably end up being a seven- or eight-bid league, at best.

We'll leave you with a few other non-B1G beneficiaries of the NET:

• Texas Tech (NET No. 21; RPI No. 60) is looking good for a No. 8 seed, but the Red Raiders would have been squarely on the bubble two years ago with this resume.
• Stanford (NET No. 31; RPI No. 64) is in the last-four-in/first-four-out range, but the Cardinal would barely even have an at-large pulse if RPI were the primary sorting metric—which makes sense, since they only have one particularly noteworthy win (vs. Oregon) and a couple of embarrassing losses.
• And while Auburn and Dayton would enter the No. 1-seed conversation if RPI were still our guide, Gonzaga (NET No. 3; RPI No. 14) and San Diego State (NET No. 5; RPI No. 11) would likely be battling for the last No. 2 seed instead of jostling for position on the No. 1 line.

By no means are we proposing that the RPI is a better metric or wishing it was back in our lives. In all of the above cases, the NET seems to be the better, more rational sorting tool. But hopefully you enjoyed this pseudo trip down memory lane in the never-ending quest to figure out who belongs in the NCAA tournament and where they should be seeded.

                                    

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.