5 High-Seed Teams Most at Risk of Losing Early in 2020 Men's NCAA Tournament

In a college basketball season that has seen upsets galore and constant shuffling at the top of the AP poll, the 2020 men's NCAA tournament promises plenty of parity.

Still, when it comes time to fill out a bracket, some higher-seeded teams will be safer bets for a deep March Madness run than others.

Ahead we've highlighted five high-seed squads that are most at risk of an early exit from the NCAA tournament. For the sake of this conversation, a "high-seed" team was any club projected for a top-four seed in the latest bracketology update from Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com.

Recent performance, roster construction and any notable weaknesses all played a part in handing out the high-risk labels.

Let's dive in.

Projected Seed: No. 4 in West Region

After a 2-3 start to Big East play, Creighton rattled off a 9-1 stretch to climb into the Top 10 in the AP poll.

However, St. John's trounced them 91-71 Sunday, which has raised eyebrows as the regular season winds down.

The Red Storm connected on a dizzying 14 of 22 three-point attempts, as guard Greg Williams Jr. led the way with 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting from beyond the arc.

Despite the ugly loss, the Bluejays are still projected for a No. 4 seed.

While they ran into a red-hot-shooting team in their most recent loss, Creighton has struggled all season with rebounding, and that has long been viewed as their Achilles' heel.

They rank 265th in the nation in rebounding margin and have just one player over 6'7" in the regular rotation: 6'11" senior Kelvin Jones, who plays 11.2 minutes per game.

The bracket projection from Lunardi puts the Bluejays in the same region where Iowa and star center Luka Garza hold the No. 5 seed. That would be an extremely tough draw for the undersized squad and could lead to an early exit.

Projected Seed: No. 3 in East Region

Duke started the season 15-1, with the lone blemish being a nonconference loss at home to Stephen F. Austin in November.

However, the Blue Devils have gone just 9-5 since, including an ugly 2-3 stretch in their last five games that has sent them sliding down the AP rankings.

Even before the recent rough patch, when they were ranked No. 7, they didn't look like the dominant force many expected them to be when they were perched atop the AP poll earlier this year.

"I think they're the most susceptible team in the Top 10 to losing on the first weekend," an anonymous coach told Seth Davis of The Athletic on Feb. 17.

Now they have dropped all the way to No. 12 in the AP poll, yet they are still projected for a No. 3 seed in the latest ESPN bracketology.

Making matters worse, two of their three recent losses were to teams—NC State (18-12) and Wake Forest (13-15)—that are not part of the projected NCAA tournament field.

Point guard Tre Jones (16.1 PPG, 6.2 APG) is a terrific facilitator, and freshman center Vernon Carey Jr. (17.6 PPG, .577 FG%) is a force inside, but the Blue Devils are lacking a consistent perimeter threat.

That could be their undoing in March.

Projected Seed: No. 4 in South Region

Point guard Payton Pritchard leads the way for an Oregon team that has emerged as the cream of the Pac-12 crop.

The senior is averaging 20.2 points per game and shooting 40.5 percent from beyond the arc.

The Ducks are 12-2 when he scores 20 points or more, compared to 10-5 when he finishes below the 20-point threshold.

Leaning heavily on one go-to scorer can be a double-edged sword during the NCAA tournament. It's nice to know where a good chunk of your offense will come from, but it can also leave a team scrambling if the go-to guy is having an off night.

While Oregon is a supremely athletic team capable of turning disruptive defense into easy offense, the Ducks are also not a physical squad, which could pose a problem if they can't control the tempo.

The Ducks are just 4-3 in their last seven games, with road losses to Stanford (20-9, projected No. 11 seed), Oregon State (15-13) and Arizona State (19-10, projected No. 10 seed) during that time.

It's also worth mentioning that Oregon is just 7-7 away from home this year, which could pose a serious problem during the NCAA tournament.

Projected Seed: No. 4 in Midwest Region

Penn State has dealt with a number of rough patches this season.

The Nittany Lions lost to a bad Ole Miss team for their first loss of the campaign Nov. 27 and then stumbled to a 2-4 start in Big Ten play, including a three-game losing streak in early January that briefly knocked them out of the AP poll.

However, they followed that losing streak with an eight-game winning streak that included road wins against Michigan (projected No. 6 seed) and Michigan State (projected No. 4 seed), and just like that they were back to No. 9 in the AP poll.

But they have stumbled once again.

They are 1-3 in their last four games with losses to Illinois at home and Indiana and Iowa on the road, and another tough test awaits when they host Michigan State on Tuesday.

The Nittany Lions have not been to the NCAA tournament since 2011, so this team is also lacking big-game experience. Lamar Stevens (17.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG) is a stud, but Penn State has simply been too inconsistent to trust in the NCAA tournament.

Projected Seed: No. 3 in South Region

Teams that live and die by the three-point shot are always a risky pick in the NCAA tournament.

Villanova ranks 31st in the nation with 797 three-point attempts, behind only Alabama (896), Notre Dame (816) and Virginia Tech (802) among major conference teams. Not one of those squads is projected to make the NCAA tournament.

"They're fine shooting 35 to 40 threes a game. The arbitrary nature can sometimes hurt them," an anonymous coach told Seth Davis of The Athletic.

In their most recent game last Saturday, they shot a dismal 5-of-30 from beyond the arc and suffered a 58-54 loss to Providence.

When they are hitting shots and slowing opponents defensively, this team is capable of beating anyone.

Saddiq Bey (15.9 PPG, 45.1 3PT%) and Collin Gillespie (15.4 PPG, 35.3 3PT%) are quality scorers, and they have five players averaging at least 10 points per game.

However, when their shots are not falling and they are forced to play catch-up, they are beatable. That makes them a risky pick to advance beyond the Sweet 16.

All stats courtesy of Sports Reference, unless otherwise noted.