NCAA Tournament

In theory, every AP Top 25 team should win in the first round of the men's NCAA tournament.

In reality, it never works out that way.

Last March, seven of the teams that finished the year in the AP Top 25 immediately got knocked out of the Big Dance: No. 7 Ohio State, No. 9 Texas, No. 15 Virginia, No. 16 San Diego State, No. 20 Purdue, No. 23 BYU and No. 25 Virginia Tech. In the tourney before that, six ranked teams went down in the first round. And 2018 was the (in)famous year when No. 1 Virginia lost to UMBC.

Even in 2000 and 2007—the only years in which all 20 teams seeded Nos. 1-5 advanced to the second round—there was still at least one loss by a ranked team each year.

So it's not a question of whether there will be a ranked squad that loses in the first round, but rather a question of how many and which ones.

With that in mind, we asked B/R app users to let us know which currently ranked team they think is most likely to lose its first game this March.

Obviously, this week's ranked teams won't necessarily be ranked on Selection Sunday. And, obviously, not knowing the first-round matchups for these squads is a critical missing variable. But these are the AP Top 25 teams with some of the biggest question marks.

           

Down in the Bayou

@nced_3: "LSU. Overhyped. Only significant wins are against Tennessee (later lost to them) and half a Kentucky team. ... Average nonconference schedule the only reason for their record."

It's not at all surprising that No. 19 LSU was the most liked response. (Aside from the one from the person who just wrote "One of them.") The Tigers entered Wednesday's game against Texas A&M having lost consecutively to Arkansas, Alabama and Tennessee—the latter of which wasn't even close.

Despite the recent skid, LSU leads the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency with an 81.5 rating that would be the best in KenPom history if the season ended today. (That record belongs to 2018-19 Texas Tech at 84.1.) No opponent has scored more than 70 points against LSU this season.

Of course, that was also true of Virginia in 2017-18 right up until that historic blowout loss to UMBC. And last year's leader in adjusted defensive efficiency (Memphis) didn't even make the NCAA tournament.

Moreover, with the exception of sixth-man extraordinaire Tari Eason, LSU leaves a lot to be desired on the offensive end. The Tigers are well outside the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency, liable to lose a 55-53 type of game in the NCAA tournament.

To LSU's credit, though, it has comfortably handled the caliber of opponent it would face in the first round if seeded in the Nos. 2-4 range. The Tigers beat each of Belmont, Liberty, Ohio and Texas State by a double-digit margin.

But if they continue to struggle and slip down to a No. 5 or No. 6 seed, yeah, that's going to be a popular spot for picking a first-round upset.

        

Boiler Up or Down?

@JuicyJuice69: Purdue. Can't get it done in conference, can't get it done in the tourney.

@biggs17: Pur-who? Ranked in the top 10 and still just as irrelevant as ever.

That's a harsh synopsis of a team that recently won a road game against the closest thing to a full-strength Illinois that we've seen all season.

But I, too, am starting to wonder if AP No. 6 Purdue can be trusted in March.

If the Boilermakers did lose right away, it certainly wouldn't be the first time they busted brackets by doing so. They lost as a No. 4 seed to North Texas just last year and lost as a No. 5 seed to Arkansas-Little Rock in 2016.

In both of those years, Purdue had a pretty dominant frontcourt, but the lack of a true point guard and the inability to force turnovers allowed what should have been an overmatched opponent to hang around just long enough to pull off an upset in overtime.

That sounds a lot like this year's Boilermakers, no?

They're more efficient on offense than usual, and their wide variety of three-point options will ultimately keep me from believing that they could lose to a No. 15 seed. But this is one of the worst defenses coach Matt Painter has ever had in West Lafayette—which makes no sense with Zach Edey's imposing 7'4" presence in the paint.

An off night from the perimeter against a turnover-averse team such as Vermont, Princeton or Oral Roberts could be a major problem.

          

Obligatory Duke Hate

Dozens of commenters: Duke

By an absolute landslide, No. 9 Duke was the most common answer.

But are the Blue Devils actually ripe for an upset, or are there just a bunch of haters hoping to watch Mike Krzyzewski ride off into retirement fresh off one of the most embarrassing losses of his career?

Why not both?

A month ago, the idea of this Duke roster—replete with five potential first-round draft picks and one of the best players in the country (Paolo Banchero)—losing in the first round seemed impossible.

Then the Blue Devils lost at home to Miami, lost at Florida State and darn near lost at home to Clemson.

Now this team feels much more beatable.

In all three of those games, Duke didn't seem as interested as its opponent. In the two losses, it had a combined turnover margin of minus-22. Miami converted on a bunch of backdoor cuts. Banchero was a non-factor until the final eight minutes of regulation against Florida State. And in the close call against Clemson, Duke allowed 14 offensive rebounds (to an opponent that does not thrive in that department) and gave up a handful of transition dunks.

That's a lot of undisciplined/unmotivated stuff from a team that seemed to think it was going to out-talent its foes, only to get out-hustled by them.

Could that happen in the tournament, resulting in another 2012 Lehigh or 2014 Mercer?

I wouldn't pick it, but anything's possible.

                

Trojan Horse; Paper Tiger?

@BobbyBoucher87: USC

Incredibly, I didn't see a single response for No. 25 Davidson, No. 24 Illinois, No. 23 Iowa State or No. 22 Marquette. You would think those lowest-ranked teams would be the most popular answers among people actually trying to be correct.

But if I had to pick the one team from the AP Top 20 most likely to get bounced right away, No. 15 USC is the obvious choice.

For starters, USC's tournament resume is severely lacking. The Trojans' best win of the season was either the neutral-site game against San Diego State or the road game against Washington State, neither of which is anything impressive for a Top 20 team. Factor in the losses to Oregon and Stanford, and USC is staring down, at best, a No. 6 seed right now.

It could be one questionable loss away from plummeting to the bubble.

The bigger concern than the lack of quality wins, though, is that the Trojans rank among the worst in the nation at both free-throw shooting and forcing turnovers, in spite of that weak schedule. And that can be a recipe for disaster in March. Case in point: Ohio State forced just six turnovers and shot 9-of-18 from the charity stripe in its loss to No. 15 seed Oral Roberts last year.

To be fair, USC also struggled in both of those areas last year—not quite to this degree—and it absolutely destroyed its first three opponents to reach the Elite Eight. However, that team had the draft's No. 3 pick (Evan Mobley) in the paint and had him flanked by some senior guards. This year's team simply isn't as imposing or experienced.

          

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames. Statistics via KenPom.com and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted.

Every sport has postseason upsets, but nobody does unpredictable chaos quite like March Madness.

And on Tuesday afternoon, we asked our B/R app users which men's NCAA tournament upset they'll never forget.

Before we dive in, I'd like to note that we're focused on individual upsets, not necessarily the greatest multigame Cinderella stories.

For instance, 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU, 2018 Loyola Chicago and 2021 UCLA all making it to the Final Four as No. 11 seeds was incredible theater, but outside maybe George Mason shocking No. 1 seed Connecticut in the Elite Eight, there wasn't an individual upset or moment in those runs that we'll remember forever.

The same goes for Gonzaga's original "glass slipper" runs, Arizona beating three No. 1 seeds en route to the 1997 title and Steph Curry carrying No. 10 seed Davidson to the 2008 Elite Eight. (Although, his 40-burger in the opening-round upset of Gonzaga certainly warrants an honorable mention.)

With that disclaimer out of the way, here are the B/R app-user submissions that stood out:

          

The Bryce Drew Hook and Ladder

@JB0421: Valpo over Iowa St...Bryce Drew baby

@thurts: Valpo! Drew's winner.

I believe @JB0421 is accidentally combining Valparaiso's 1998 victory over Ole Miss and Hampton's 2001 victory over Iowa State, both of which were first-round stunners.

But for those of us in our mid-30s, that Valpo game was the O.G. March Madness mind-blower.

Valparaiso was a No. 13 seed, and it had multiple opportunities in the final few minutes to either tie or take the lead against the Rebels. But when Bryce Drew bricked a step-through three-point attempt with less than 10 seconds remaining in a two-point game, it sure felt like the upset was out of reach.

Mississippi's Ansu Sesay missed a pair of free throws, though, and the second miss got knocked out of bounds to Valpo with 2.5 seconds remaining. Jamie Sykes heaved the ball two-thirds the length of the floor to Bill Jenkins, who immediately found Drew running down the sideline for a wide-open three-pointer. The coach's son nailed what is still one of the five most memorable buzzer-beaters in tournament history.

         

Dunk City

@NateS22: Florida Gulf Coast beating Georgetown. What a team!

Max Abmas, Kevin Obanor and Oral Roberts matched this feat in 2021, but when Florida Gulf Coast made it to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed in 2013, it was the first time in tournament history that a team seeded that low made it that far.

What made that run so unforgettable wasn't the seeding, but rather the dunking.

The Dunk City Eagles didn't just beat No. 2 seed Georgetown in their initial tourney game that year. They dunked the Hoyas into oblivion.

Fast-break alley-oops. Back-door cuts. Rim-rattling putbacks.

You name it. They slammed it.

But the iconic one came with about two minutes remaining in a seven-point game when Brett Comer had the gall to flip a ball over his shoulder to a streaking Chase Fieler for a one-handed dunk.

After that 10-point win over Georgetown, FGCU put up 81 points in another 10-point win over San Diego State. The dunks in that one weren't quite as memorable, but there were plenty of them. They also built up an early 10-point lead over Florida in the Sweet 16, but the magical ride ran out of gas over the final 27 minutes.

          

Ron Hunter Falls Off His Stool

@DrMantisTobagan: Georgia State over Baylor. RJ Hunter drains a buzzer beater as his coach/dad falls out of his chair and injures himself. Wasn't the biggest upset but one of the most fun to watch on tv live.

Georgia State head coach Ron Hunter was coaching from a rolling stool on the sideline because he suffered a torn Achilles while celebrating his team's 38-36 victory (seriously) over Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt championship.

So, it wasn't that fall when he suffered the injury.

And it wasn't actually a buzzer-beater that his son hit from a good eight feet beyond the arc. Baylor still had 2.6 seconds left to get off a half-court heave. But it missed, and No. 14 seed Georgia State won 57-56 after finishing the game on a 13-0 run.

As our pal Mantis said, it wasn't the biggest upset in tournament history, but it was absolutely one of the greatest moments.

         

A Pair of Natty Stunners

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_K3UJUmHREQ

@mike_coyle10: Villanova over Gtown 1985

@joeandronaco: NC State vs. Houston 1983 NCAA finals

I wasn't even alive for either of these games, but they were two of the first 10 or so that came to mind when I pitched this topic.

The 1983 championship was the one that famously ended with Lorenzo Charles cleaning up a Dereck Whittenburg near-half-court heave with a dunk for the win at the buzzer, followed by head coach Jim Valvano frantically running around the court, looking for someone to hug.

Not only was it an iconic moment, but it was also a colossal upset.

NC State was a No. 6 seed that perhaps wouldn't have even made it into the Big Dance had it not knocked off two AP Top Five teams (North Carolina with Michael Jordan; Virginia with Ralph Sampson) to win the ACC tournament. Houston was the No. 1 team in the nation with Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon leading "Phi Slamma Jamma." But the Wolfpack managed to hold that sensational team to 52 points.

If that's not the biggest championship upset in NCAA tournament history, it's only because the biggest one came two years later.

Villanova was a No. 8 seed in the 1985 tourney, and it darn near lost its opening-round game against Dayton. But from there, the Wildcats pulled off five consecutive upsets, punctuated by one of the best shooting performances of all time. They went 22-of-28 from the field (78.6 percent) and 22-of-27 (81.5 percent) from the free-throw line for a 66-64 upset over No. 1 Georgetown.

          

Down Go the Dukies

@CeedeeTD: Lehigh (CJ McCollum) over Duke

@jzsc4ever: Zion and the super team not making the Final Four

@Sc00p__24: VCU over Duke

@DeadlyCupofJoe: South Carolina beating Duke on their way to the Final Four in 2016.

@CTJBP: Anything with Duke being bounced by a nobody. Go ahead there are a couple of choices.

I had a hunch there would be quite a few Duke submissions, but through the first eight hours of responses, y'all missed the most unforgettable of them all: No. 14 Mercer knocking out the Jabari Parker-led Blue Devils, followed by Kevin Canevari going viral for hitting the nae nae.

As far as Duke's first-round upsets go, though, losing to Lehigh as a No. 2 seed is the correct answer.

By Duke's standards, 2011-12 was a bad season long before the tournament loss. The Blue Devils were 18th on KenPom.com heading into that game and pretty much only ended up with a No. 2 seed because of November wins over Kansas and Michigan State.

They still should have been able to beat Lehigh, though.

Yes, the Mountain Hawks had CJ McCollum, and yes, he went wild in that game, racking up 30 points with six assists and six rebounds. But in terms of future NBA players, Duke had an 8-1 lead over Lehigh.

The Blue Devils simply picked the wrong time to have one of their worst shooting performances. Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry and Austin Rivers went a combined 4-of-19 from three-point range (21.1 percent)—a far cry from the 185-of-478 (38.7 percent) that they entered the night.

For my money, though, the most shocking Duke loss in the NCAA tournament came in the 2002 Sweet 16. Jay Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Chris Duhon all returned from the 2001 national championship team and entered that Dance as the favorite to win it all. But No. 5 seed Indiana erased a 17-point deficit for a 74-73 stunner.

        

The Ultimate Cinderella Story

@22VNU22: There's literally only one choice and it's UMBC

@AnalyticsFan508: How can it not be the 1 seed going down?

The only No. 16 seed to defeat a No. 1 seed was, of course, the most popular answer. And one of my greatest regrets in life was not going to this game, considering it was played about 10 miles from where I was living at the time.

In my defense, I was a little under the weather, my four-screen setup at home was awesome and I never in a million years would have dreamed that 31-2 Virginia could lose to a team that entered the tournament ranked 188th on KenPom.

In the five seasons leading up to that point, Tony Bennett's pack-line defense had been unflappable against subpar competition. The Cavaliers had won 62 consecutive games against teams ranked outside the KenPom top 80, with 56 of those wins coming by double digits. Their average margin of victory was 21.2 points.

During that same five-year stretch, UMBC played just six games against teams in the KenPom top 50, losing those six games by an average margin of 23.5 points.

But after playing to a 21-21 draw in the first half, the Retrievers simply could not miss in the second half. Against one of the most efficient defenses in KenPom history, they racked up 20 points in the first five minutes after the intermission and ended up scoring 53 second-half points in a 20-point blowout.

Even as things were spiraling out of control, I kept sitting there thinking, "OK, this is the part where Virginia finally wakes up and takes the game over." It wasn't until the Retrievers went ahead 61-44 with less than four minutes to go that I finally realized we were witnessing history.

          

If there's a topic you'd like to see covered for next week's community discussion, shoot me a DM on the B/R app: @KerranceJames.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.

NCAA President Mark Emmert told reporters Wednesday it would be a "great idea" to hold the championship games for Division I men's and women's basketball in the same city, although the potential change wouldn't come anytime soon.

"First of all, it’s up to the oversight committees and then the D-I Council if they really do that," Emmert said. "They made a joint decision, both men’s and women’s committees together, to not do anything between now and (2027) because of the commitments that have already been made to venues that are out there.

"It's a great idea conceptually; it’s a lot more complicated to do in reality."

The discussion comes after an August report stated the NCAA prioritized men's basketball "over everything else" to the detriment of women's sports, per The Athletic. One of the report's suggestions to improve the situation was to hold both men's and women's basketball Final Fours in the same city.

Another suggestion was to use the term "March Madness" for both men's and women's tournaments, which the NCAA announced it would do in September.

The sites for both events are already set through 2026.

The men's Final Four will be held in New Orleans at the end of the 2021-22 season, followed by trips to Houston, Phoenix, San Antonio and Indianapolis. The women's Final Four will be at Minneapolis this season before going to Dallas; Cleveland; Tampa, Florida; and Phoenix.

Having both events in a single city could improve the marketing for both events, although it could create logistical problems with more venues and hotel rooms needed for everyone involved.

Emmert still believes it is worth an attempt at some point.

"I certainly hope it’s worth a try as an experiment, just to try it once and see if we can pull it off," he said Wednesday.