2022 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: January 11 Projection of the Field of 68

One day removed from a college football national championship featuring two SEC teams, could we interest you in a 2022 men's NCAA tournament projection featuring a pair of SEC teams on the No. 1 seed line?

The league hasn't produced a single No. 1 seed since Kentucky carried an undefeated record into the 2015 dance, and you have to go all the way back to 1980 to find the last time two SEC teams landed on the top line. However, we've got Auburn and LSU alongside Baylor and Gonzaga as the No. 1 seeds if the season ended today.

For each of the four regions, we'll discuss one team in much better shape than it was three weeks ago and another that—though still in position to dance—perhaps isn't as good as we once thought.

Before that, we'll start with the bubble, like we always do. And after the region-by-region breakdown, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order that they are. At the end is a list of overall seeds by conference as a handy reference guide.

One quick "glossary" note before we dive in: When we take deeper looks at specific teams resumes, you'll see NET, RES and QUAL. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee, and the metric from which the Quadrant records are derived. RES is the average of the team's Resume metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record). QUAL is the average of the Quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, KenPom and Sagarin).

NET rankings update daily and can be found here. The others can be found individually at their various sources, or masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik.

Last Team In: Saint Louis Billikens (10-4, NET: 65, RES: 58.0, QUAL: 62.3)

I've been doing bracket projections for more than enough years to know it's a mid-January tradition to feel like we're looking at the weakest bubble ever. So while I'm not going to say that's the case, it sure is difficult to come up with 36 worthy at-large teams right now.

With that in mind, welcome, Saint Louis!

The last-minute game scheduled between Saint Louis and Iona for this past Saturday ended up in a key victory for the Billikens, who previously scored somewhat noteworthy wins over Boise State and Richmond. None of their four losses were to teams currently outside the KenPom top 50, and three of the four losses were decided by five points or fewer.

It's a flimsy resume and they'll need to be careful to avoid bad losses in A-10 play in order to maintain it. But for now, it's good enough.

Second-to-Last In: Murray State Racers (12-2, NET: 46, RES: 40.0, QUAL: 70.7)

Much like Saint Louis, there's not much meat or potatoes to Murray State's resume. They do have Quadrant 1 wins at Memphis and vs. Chattanooga, however, neither result was all that great, and there's a bad neutral-site loss to East Tennessee State weighing them down. A loss to any non-Belmont OVC foe the rest of the way would effectively end the dream of an at-large bid.

Third-to-Last In: Florida Gators (9-5, NET: 51, RES: 79.0, QUAL: 32.7)

Florida has opened SEC play with back-to-back losses by double digits to Alabama and Auburn. The Gators have a big game against LSU coming up on Wednesday. Lose that one, and they'll be facing a serious uphill battle for a bid, thanks in part to that horrific 15-point home loss to Texas Southern back in early December. We'll see how much longer the solid Quality metrics can buoy the poor Resume metrics.

Fourth-to-Last In: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (13-3, NET: 47, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 55.7)

Wake Forest needed overtime to narrowly avoid what would have been a bad home loss to now sub-.500 Syracuse this past weekend. Coupled with a 22-point shellacking of Florida State earlier in the week, the Demon Deacons hang onto a spot on the right side of the bubble in advance of what could be a brutal two-week stretch. They host Duke on Wednesday and North Carolina on Jan. 22 with road games against Virginia and Georgia Tech in between.

Fifth-to-Last In: Marquette Golden Eagles (10-6, NET: 44, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 56.0)

The double-overtime home loss to Creighton on New Year's Day felt like a back-breaker for Marquette, but the Golden Eagles responded in a huge way with a 32-point win over Providence and a 28-point road win over Georgetown. Their Resume metrics were already solid thanks to the home win over Illinois and the wins away from home over West Virginia, Kansas State and Ole Miss. But they needed those blowout wins to bring the Quality metrics back to life.

First Team Out: Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-4, NET: 45, RES: 66.5, QUAL: 37.0)

Most bracketologists have Mississippi State in their projected fields right now, but I don't see it. The Bulldogs have decent metrics across the board, but you have to actually beat somebody at some point. They are currently 0-1 against Quadrant 1 and 0-3 against Quadrant 2.

Postponements permitting, they have a home game against Alabama and road games against Florida, Kentucky and Texas Tech on the docket for January. A 1-3 record against that slate—3-3 if we can also assume home wins over Georgia and Ole Miss—would likely keep the Bulldogs right at the cut line heading into February.

Second Team Out: Louisville Cardinals (10-5, NET: 85, RES: 50.5, QUAL: 55.3)

Despite three losses to teams outside the KenPom Top 100 (Furman, DePaul and Western Kentucky) and four other close calls against teams outside the KenPom Top 100, Louisville somehow keeps hanging around. Back-to-back home games against Duke and North Carolina on Jan. 29 and Jan. 31, respectively, loom large.

Third Team Out: Virginia Tech Hokies (8-6, NET: 37, RES: 96.0, QUAL: 28.7)

NET and the Quality metrics love the Hokies, but that is fools' gold stemming from beating the six worst opponents on their schedule by a combined margin of 173 points, as well as blowing out St. Bonaventure by 39 in mid-December. That's their only win over a team with an at-large pulse, though, and they've already lost their only regular-season games against Duke and Wake Forest. Bringing up the Resume metrics is going to be tough.

Fourth Team Out: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (8-3, NET: 107, RES: 60.5, QUAL: 69.3)

The Bonnies have not played since that aforementioned beating they took at the hands of Virginia Tech, and their NET is most certainly not doing them any favors. However, those neutral-site wins over Boise State, Clemson and Marquette in the Charleston Classic are aging like a fine wine with all three of those teams in the bubble mix right now.

Fifth Team Out: TCU Horned Frogs (10-2, NET: 58, RES: 54.5, QUAL: 57.7)

TCU gave No. 1 Baylor a run for its money on Saturday, leading by as many as nine points early in the second half before the Bears went on a rampage. It was the expected result, but it was a big miss for the Horned Frogs, who thus far boast nothing better than a neutral-site victory over Texas A&M. Opportunities abound in Big 12 play, though, plus TCU will host LSU later this month in the SEC-B12 Challenge.

Fort Worth, Texas

No. 1 LSU vs. No. 16 Weber State
No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 Indiana

Buffalo, New York

No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 13 Iona
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Chattanooga

Greenville, South Carolina

No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Wagner
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Marquette

Indianapolis, Indiana

No. 2 Purdue vs. No. 15 Navy
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Memphis

On the Rise: Villanova Wildcats (Up Two Seed Lines)
11-4, NET: 7, RES: 12.5, QUAL: 5.3

When our previous bracket projection published, the Wildcats' two most recent games were the butt-kickings they took at Baylor and at Creighton. At that point, they were 7-4 with a great win over Tennessee and not much else. Plus, Xavier, Seton Hall and Providence were all staking their claim as the best team in the Big East.

Since then, however, Villanova has been on a tear, scoring home wins over Xavier and Creighton and road wins over Seton Hall and DePaul by a combined margin of 68 points.

What's most impressive about that run is it wasn't a product of catching fire from three-point range, as it so often has been for Villanova in recent years. Rather, the Wildcats are a modest 29-of-86 (33.7 percent) from distance during their four-game winning streak, so they might just be warming up.

There's a case to be made that Villanova should bounce back up to a No. 3 seed, if not a No. 2 seed. However, none of the teams currently in our top 12 have three losses, let alone four. Thus, let's wait to see if Villanova can win at Xavier this Wednesday before we get carried away here.

Fading Fast: Duke Blue Devils (Down Two Seed Lines)
12-2, NET: 13, RES: 27.5, QUAL: 12.3

Take out the cupcake games, and Duke is sitting at 3-2 with quality neutral-site victories over Gonzaga and Kentucky in November, an acceptable road loss to Ohio State and Saturday's eyesore of a home loss to Miami.

It was a surprising result to say the least, and a bad one for the Blue Devils, who won't have many opportunities to make up for it.

Based on current NET rankings, Duke only has three Quadrant 1 games remaining this season: at No. 47 Wake Forest this Wednesday, at No. 70 Florida State next Tuesday and at No. 34 North Carolina on Feb. 5.

Win all three and maybe they'll be back in projected No. 1 seed range heading into the final month of the regular season. Lose any of the three, though, and Duke might instead slip another seed line or two.

Greenville, South Carolina

No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16 Nicholls State / Winthrop
No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 9 Iowa

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Ohio
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Belmont

Portland, Oregon

No. 3 USC vs. No. 14 New Mexico State
No. 6 Connecticut vs. No. 11 Miami (FL)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Liberty
No. 7 Loyola-Chicago vs. No. 10 Minnesota

On the Rise: Miami (FL) Hurricanes (New to the Field)
13-3, NET: 80, RES: 24.0, QUAL: 82.7

The predictive/Quality metrics are not yet buying what the Hurricanes are selling, but when you cap off a nine-game win streak with a road win over Duke, you officially have our attention.

Miami racked up 15 steals in that victory over the usually sure-handed Blue Devils and scored on what felt like a combined total of 15 circus shots and/or back-door cuts. It was the 'Canes first Quadrant 1 win of the year, but they previously picked up Quadrant 2 victories over Clemson, Penn State, North Texas and Wake Forest—hence the impressive Resume metrics.

Can they keep it rolling for another two-plus weeks, though? There aren't many tough stretches in this year's ACC, but that road game against Duke was just the beginning of a five-game gauntlet for the Hurricanes. Between now and Jan. 26, they are scheduled to face Florida State twice, host North Carolina and play at Virginia Tech. Win at least two of those four and they'll be in great shape for a bid heading into the weak half of their conference slate.

Fading Fast: Iowa Hawkeyes (Down Two Seed Lines)
11-4, NET: 27, RES: 59.5, QUAL: 21.7

With a Keegan Murray-led offense that ranks among the most potent in the nation, Iowa is top 30 in all three Quality metrics, as well as the NET.

But who have the Hawkeyes beaten?

That one-point road win over Virginia in the ACC-B1G Challenge isn't even a Quadrant 1 result at this point, and their only other non-Q4 wins thus far were the home game against Maryland (Q3) and the neutral-site game against Utah State (Q2).

It's way too early in the year to call anything a must-win game, but Iowa will be in danger of falling out of the projected field if unable to win the home game against Indiana this Thursday.

Fort Worth, Texas

No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Howard / Texas Southern
No. 8 San Francisco vs. No. 9 Colorado State

Buffalo, New York

No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 5 Seton Hall vs. No. 12 UAB

Indianapolis, Indiana

No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Vermont
No. 6 Providence vs. No. 11 Florida / Wake Forest

San Diego, California

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Towson
No. 7 West Virginia vs. No. 10 Saint Mary's

On the Rise: Wisconsin Badgers (Up Three Seed Lines)
13-2, NET: 24, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 29.0

Wisconsin never makes it look easy, but it is putting together one heck of a tournament resume all the same.

Nine of the Badgers' past 10 wins have come by single digits—helping Johnny Davis look like a clutch hero time and again—including Sunday night's game at Maryland in which they blew a 21-point first-half lead before rallying for a one-point victory. They also won at Purdue and beat Iowa since our last update, surging up the seed list in spite of recent close calls at home against Nicholls State and Illinois State.

Wisconsin was blown out at Ohio State in mid-December, but perhaps things will be different when they welcome the Buckeyes to the Kohl Center on Thursday night. Win that one, and they'll be in the No. 1 seed conversation in a hurry.

Fading Fast: Colorado State Rams (Down Three Seed Lines)
11-1, NET: 41, RES: 23.0, QUAL: 59.3

Prior to taking a lengthy COVID-19 pause, Colorado State put together an impressive nonconference resume. Not only did the Rams go a perfect 10-0, but they also picked up quality wins over Creighton (neutral), Mississippi State (neutral) and Saint Mary's (home).

But they were noticeably rusty and out of sync after going 24 days between games played. They struggled at home against a bad Air Force team that was playing without three of its starters, and then they got destroyed 79-49 at San Diego State over the weekend.

Can the Rams stop the bleeding before their resume falls apart? A home loss to Utah State this Wednesday wouldn't be the end of the world, but drop any of the subsequent games against San Jose State, New Mexico or Air Force, and their projected bid will be hanging by a thread, at best.

Portland, Oregon

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Texas State
No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Creighton

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Oakland
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Murray State / Saint Louis

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Davidson

San Diego, California

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Princeton
No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 North Carolina

On the Rise: San Diego State Aztecs (Up Three Seed Lines)
10-3, NET: 40, RES: 35.0, QUAL: 35.3

San Diego State's aforementioned 30-point win over Colorado State ended up having an equal but opposite reaction for those two teams in the seeding mix. The Rams dropped three seed lines and the Aztecs climbed three seed lines, landing one spot on the overall seed list ahead of the team they just smashed.

Prior to that result, SDSU's resume consisted of three understandable losses away from home against KenPom top-30 opponents (BYU, USC and Michigan) and a nice 10-point win over Saint Mary's on a neutral court. In other words, no bad losses and only one remotely noteworthy win, which is a resume with "Bubble" written all over it.

By throttling previously unbeaten Colorado State, the Aztecs now have a little bit of breathing room above the cut line. If they were to lose the remaining road games against Colorado State, Fresno State, Boise State and Utah State but take care of business elsewhere, that might be enough for a bid.

Fading Fast: Alabama Crimson Tide (Down One Seed Line)
11-4, NET: 22, RES: 12.0, QUAL: 16.7

Alabama isn't exactly fading fast. Dropping one seed line over a period of three weeks is nothing.

It is a decrease, though, and that gives me an opportunity to point out something weird about this resume: The Crimson Tide have not yet played a single Quadrant 4 game, but they did lose to the worst opponent they have faced thus far. The 92-86 loss at Missouri this past Saturday was a brutal one for a team that already had questionable losses to Iona, Davidson and Memphis.

But Alabama also has marquee wins over Gonzaga, Houston and Tennessee, as well as a nice road win over Florida and a rapidly-gaining-value 32-point neutral-site victory over Miami.

Some teams would be in free-fall mode in projected seeding after a bad loss to Missouri. For Alabama, it was a minor speed bump, thanks to the "insulation" from all those good wins. And the Crimson Tide could get right back on track for a spot in the top three seed lines with a home win over either Auburn or LSU in the next 10 days.

No. 4: LSU Tigers (14-1, NET: 4, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 8.0)

We've got a tough call for the fourth No. 1 seed as a result of losses by both Duke and Kansas this past weekend.

Kansas still has a solid case as far as the metrics are concerned (NET: 9, RES: 9.0, QUAL: 5.7), but we can do better than a two-loss team with just two Quadrant 1 wins and a bad loss to Dayton.

UCLA has a great home win over Villanova and just the one loss to Gonzaga, but the Bruins are 20th in the NET right now. Fellow Pac-12 contender Arizona has better metrics, but just the one Quadrant 1 win (at Illinois).

So LSU gets the nod for a projected No. 1 seed for what is very likely the first time in my bracket-projecting career. The Tigers have four Quadrant 1 wins, two of which (vs. Kentucky; vs. Tennessee) have come in the past week. Per KenPom, they have the most efficient defense in the country, and it's not all that close.

No. 3: Auburn Tigers (14-1, NET: 6, RES: 2.5, QUAL: 10.3)

It's a crying shame that Auburn lost that double-overtime game against Connecticut in the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis, or else we could have been treated to a championship showdown between Auburn and Baylor. As is, that thriller against the Huskies is still the only game the Tigers have lost this season, and they have won four straight against Murray State, LSU, South Carolina and Florida by at least a dozen points each.

There's a great big "welcome to basketball season" game for SEC football fans on Tuesday night when Auburn travels to Alabama. A road win in Tuscaloosa would really cement the Tigers as one of the top contenders for the national championship.

No. 2: Gonzaga Bulldogs (12-2, NET: 5, RES: 28.0, QUAL: 2.0)

Gonzaga has played eight games against teams outside the KenPom top 200, winning each of them by at least 25 points. Hence the substantial difference between the Zags' Resume metrics and Quality metrics. They'll eventually face stiffer competition than usual in the WCC with BYU, Saint Mary's and San Francisco all in the running for a tournament bid, but they might/should still run the table to secure the No. 1 seed in the West Region.

No. 1: Baylor Bears (15-0, NET: 1, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 2.0)

Baylor is running away with the No. 1 overall seed to such a laughable degree that the Bears could lose their home games against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State this week and perhaps still be No. 1 overall next Tuesday.

Baylor was tested by Iowa State, Oklahoma and TCU, but beating this team for a full 40 minutes is going to take a special kind of effort. The Bears will very likely suffer at least one loss before the NCAA tournament, but they are the "as long as they don't go ice cold from three-point range" favorite to win it all.

In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each team's overall seed, broken down by conference. First five out teams are included in italics.

American (2): 10. Houston; 40. Memphis

ACC (4): 9. Duke; 37. North Carolina; 41. Miami; 43. Wake Forest; 70. Louisville; 71. Virginia Tech

Atlantic 10 (2): 45. Davidson; 48. Saint Louis; 72. St. Bonaventure

Big 12 (7): 1. Baylor; 6. Kansas; 21. Iowa State; 25. Texas; 26. Texas Tech; 28. West Virginia; 30. Oklahoma; 73. TCU

Big East (7): 13. Villanova; 16. Xavier; 19. Seton Hall; 23. Providence; 24. Connecticut; 35. Creighton; 42. Marquette

Big Ten (8): 8. Purdue; 12. Michigan State; 14. Wisconsin; 17. Ohio State; 20. Illinois; 34. Indiana; 36. Iowa; 39. Minnesota

Mountain West (2): 32. San Diego State; 33. Colorado State

Ohio Valley (2): 46. Belmont; 47. Murray State

Pac-12 (3): 5. Arizona; 7. UCLA; 11. USC

SEC (6): 3. Auburn; 4. LSU; 15. Alabama; 18. Tennessee; 22. Kentucky; 44. Florida; 69. Mississippi State

West Coast (4): 2. Gonzaga; 29. BYU; 31. San Francisco; 38. Saint Mary's

Other (21): 27. Loyola-Chicago; 49. Chattanooga; 50. UAB; 51. Iona; 52. South Dakota State; 53. Ohio; 54. Oakland; 55. New Mexico State; 56. Wagner; 57. UC Irvine; 58. Vermont; 59. Navy; 60. Towson; 61. Liberty; 62. Princeton; 63. Texas State; 64. Weber State; 65. Winthrop; 66. Nicholls State; 67. Texas Southern; 68. Howard

Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference, KenPom and BartTorvik.com and are current through the start of play on Monday, Jan. 10, unless otherwise noted.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.