NFL Odds & Betting

Despite losing the final leg of a 16-team parlay during Week 2 of the NFL season, a bettor is set to receive a significant payout from BetMGM.

BR Betting broke down why the bettor is being given a $133,000 payment despite falling just short of completing the parlay:

The bettor picked every game on the Week 2 NFL slate as part of a $25 promotional parlay bet through BetMGM. The bettor did not receive a cash-out option since it was promotional, which led to BetMGM making an exception after the fact.

According to Pete Truszkowski of Yahoo Sports, every game the bettor picked was via the money line, meaning there were no point spreads involved.

Some of their picks were fairly significant upsets, including the Las Vegas Raiders over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Carolina Panthers over the New Orleans Saints and the Baltimore Ravens over the Kansas City Chiefs.

The final pick would have been the biggest upset of all, as the bettor selected the Detroit Lions to beat the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football as a plus-450 underdog.

The parlay would have paid out $726,959 had the Lions won, and things were looking good early, as Detroit surprisingly held a 17-14 halftime lead on the road at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay took over in the second half, however, and ultimately won the game by a 35-17 margin.

While the bettor suffered a heartbreaking loss Monday night, they were eventually handed a major victory Wednesday thanks to BetMGM's decision.

If you're holding a Mac Jones for Offensive Rookie of the Year ticket from earlier this summer, odds are you're pretty happy right about now.

Jones, who opened at 12-1 and was 10-1 as recently as this week, has now jumped all the way up to 6-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook following news he will serve as the Patriots' Week 1 starter.

Only Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has better odds than Jones.

A quarterback has won Offensive Rookie of the Year five of the last 10 years, including each of the last two. A running back has won the award four times.

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris stands out well above the crowd among the backs and is a sneaky-smart bet if he stays healthy. Harris should be the three-down workhorse in Pittsburgh.

Jones is coming off a stellar junior season that saw him reset the Alabama passing record book. He threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns against four interceptions while leading the Crimson Tide to a national championship.

The Patriots won't give Jones quite the same level of talent at the skill positions. Jones, Harris, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle were all first-round picks. Alabama had arguably the greatest offense it has ever put on a field last season.

The Patriots, by contrast, rank as mediocre-at-best at the skill positions despite a heavy investment on the offensive side of the ball this offseason. Jones at 6-1 for Rookie of the Year seems on the high end of possibilities. 

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This article will be updated to provide more information on this story as it becomes available.

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It's incredibly easy to overlook the Atlanta Falcons heading into the 2021 NFL season. The team's coming off a bad year, starting over with a new coaching staff, lost a franchise great and feels like a dramatic rebuilder. 

Which makes the Falcons a pretty great playoff underdog. 

No, really. The Falcons botched the end of the Dan Quinn era, letting it painfully drag out with consecutive 7-9 seasons before being fired in the middle of a 4-12 season largely thanks to the goodwill earned by 11 wins and a Super Bowl appearance in 2017. That it ever got to this point is part of the reason the Falcons have such a stench of a rebuilder. At DraftKings, they have the joint-ninth-worst Super Bowl odds at +8000 (bet $100 to win $8,000).

But the Falcons still have the most important thing in football going for them: a quarterback with top-10 potential. 

Matt Ryan might be 36 years old, but even last year while slogging through a four-win campaign, he completed 65 percent of his passes with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions despite taking 41 sacks. His stellar 83.1 Pro Football Focus grade was higher than the year prior (76.0). Not only was the line bad, he did this while his lead back, Todd Gurley, averaged 3.5 yards per carry, Julio Jones only appeared in nine games, Russell Gage was the team's second-leading receiver and his defense coughed up 25.9 points per game. 

Part of the hesitation with the Falcons also stems from the trading away of Jones, the seven-time Pro Bowler and franchise great. But the loss isn't as dramatic as it might seem at face value. Jones, now 32 years old, had injury woes last year, which could be a sign of things to come. 

More importantly, Atlanta compensated for this loss. Fourth overall pick Kyle Pitts was the highest-drafted tight end ever. For good reason, too, given his ability to play all over the field and create mismatch nightmares. He'll pair perfectly with Calvin Ridley, last year's leading wideout (1,374 yards and nine touchdowns).

The addition of Mike Davis seemed to fly under the radar after he scored six rushing touchdowns last year and caught 59 of his 70 targets. That receiving ability is an upgrade and will keep him on the field all three downs after Gurley only caught 25 passes last year. 

Better spacing because of playmakers means an easier time for Ryan and wider running lanes. Most important of all, though, is the arrival of Arthur Smith as head coach. The architect behind Ryan Tannehill's stunning turnaround in Tennessee now gets to turn loose with a modern great quarterback and top-flight weapons. 

Smith is ready to tailor the offense to Ryan's strengths, just like he did for Tannehill. Plus, Ryan was a big part of the job's attractiveness, as he told Pete Schrager on the Flying Coach podcast (h/t Evan Birchfield of The Falcoholic):

"I've always been a fan of Matt Ryan from afar. I know a lot of people who have worked with him and know him well, and I'm just so impressed with how he handles himself. He wants to be coached and Ryan [Tannehill] was the same way. They are different players, and they both have their strengths and both of those guys, when you have players like that they come in there and they work hard."

Also tucked into that interview? Sean McVay, often cited as the foremost offensive mind in the NFL, admitting he steals stuff from Smith. 

The defense is still a work in progress. The Falcons need someone at the corner spot opposite 2020 first-rounder A.J. Terrell. Grady Jarrett is still as disruptive as it gets from the interior, but the team's edge-rushers will need to produce consistently. 

Still, new coordinator Dean Pees spent the 2018 and '19 seasons in Tennessee producing solid units and has a reputation for playing to his talent's strengths. And in today's NFL, an offense can carry a struggling defense (Kansas City spent the last few years entirely retooling its defense while contending). 

Keep in mind outside factors. Seven teams from the conference can make the playoffs, and the Falcons happen to have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL. It's a tricky thing to quantify, and last year's winning percentage isn't the greatest measurement, but it's worth pointing out. 

The schedule passes the eye test, too, with what could be easier games against teams such as the New York Giants and Jets in the first five games. Closing the season with three of five on the road hurts, but maybe a game against Buffalo in Week 17 features backups given the Bills' strength. 

Tom Brady's march to the Super Bowl in the NFC South skews the perception of the division. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers return all 22 starters, but it's a free-for-all after them. New Orleans will start the post-Drew Brees era with some combination of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill under center, while Carolina will start over yet again with Jets bust Sam Darnold. 

Even while winning just four games last year, Atlanta had only a minus-18 point differential, while Carolina finished in third place with five wins and a minus-52 differential. The Falcons outplayed their record and lost seven games by five or fewer points. 

Freed of a struggling era with the best offensive mind in place for Matt Ryan since Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons have the upside of a team that can catch many by surprise at a time when the general narrative seems to expect a rebuild. 

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Everyone loves a dark horse. It's just human nature.

People can hardly contain themselves when a heavyweight boxer everyone expected to get the snot beat out of knocks out the supposedly invincible Mike Tyson. They applaud when an 18-point-underdog New York Jets team knocks off the mighty Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. They revel when a 1000-1 long-shot U.S. men's hockey team stuns the juggernaut that was the USSR in the 1980 Winter Olympics.

Of course, some of those people were cheering because by placing a wager on those long shots, they came away with a fat bag of cash.

There is no shortage of long-shot bets to be made ahead of the upcoming NFL season. Many are just setting money on fire—the Houston Texans (+20000) aren't about to win Super Bowl LVI. Miami Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin (+20000) isn't going to be named the league's Most Valuable Player.

But there is a dark-horse candidate to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year who presents an interesting mix of talent and situation. A young running back with the potential to lead all first-year backs in rushing yards while playing a major part in a postseason run.

That player is San Francisco 49ers running back Trey Sermon, who is currently sitting 19th in OROY odds at +3500.

Sermon wasn't the first running back drafted in 2021. Or the second. Or the third. In his lone season at Ohio State after transferring from Oklahoma, he failed to hit the 1,000-yard mark on the ground.

Of course, Sermon's numbers don't tell the whole story of what he accomplished as a Buckeye—especially late in the 2020 season. In the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern, Sermon set a school record with 331 yards on 29 carries—quite the feat at a university that has produced Eddie George, Ezekiel Elliott, J.K. Dobbins, Robert Smith and several other high-end running back prospects. In the College Football Playoff semifinal against Clemson, Sermon piled up 193 yards on 31 totes. The 6'0", 215-pounder averaged 7.5 yards per carry for the year.

However, for all that Sermon accomplished in Columbus, Ohio, many scouts considered him more of a committee back than an NFL workhorse—while allowing that he could shine in the right scheme.

"Sermon's skill set and production will be the latest argument against drafting running backs high in the draft," Kyle Crabbs of The Draft Network wrote. "Sermon is expected to be a mid-round prospect thanks to some inefficiencies and a lack of production on third downs; but on a team that runs inside and split zone with success, Sermon can be super productive."

However, Matt Waldman of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio went so far as to rank Sermon as arguably the top running back in the class, potentially ahead of Alabama's Najee Harris. Sermon's versatility left a lasting impression on him:

"Trey Sermon moves like an NFL starting running back. Correction, Sermon moves like a top-shelf NFL running back. ... Whether it's in the backfield, at the entrance of a crease, at the edge with a one-on-one against a safety, or in the open field after building up downhill momentum, Sermon uses his feet, knees, hips, shoulders, and head to freeze, circumnavigate, or hurdle the opposition. And if these (aren't) options, he'll run over or drag defenders."

The Niners certainly saw something they liked in Sermon, moving up in the third round to grab him. Simply put, it's a match made in heaven.

Sermon is many things, but a dancer in the backfield isn't one of them; he runs with equal parts decisiveness and anger. It's a great fit for Kyle Shanahan's outside-zone scheme for a couple of reasons. The first is that Ohio State uses some of the same concepts in its run game. The second is that Sermon himself revealed that while preparing to transfer to Ohio State, he studied film of (wait for it) Shanahan's 49ers.

"When I was making the transition to Ohio State, I was looking at a lot of outside zone," Sermon said, per Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area. "The 49ers were definitely one of the teams that I looked at. Just going through the progressions and the reads because I knew when I got to Ohio State we were going to run a lot of that."

Sermon went on to say that those study sessions have eased his adjustment to his new home.

"It hasn't been too difficult just making the transition," Sermon said. "Some of the stuff is similar to what I did at Ohio State. I feel like my acclimation will be pretty smooth and it will be good."

Per Dalton Johnson of NBC Sports Bay Area, during OTAs Shanahan said he's been impressed by what he's seen from Sermon.

"Trey's been great," Shanahan said. "Each week he's gotten more and more reps and as we cooled it down with Raheem [Mostert] a little bit here, the last couple of weeks, it's given him even more opportunities."

Those opportunities could easily carry over into the regular season.

As things stand right now, Sermon sits behind veterans Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. on the depth chart. Mostert has been effective when healthy, averaging a robust 5.6 yards per carry for his career. But the 29-year-old has battled chronic knee problems, missed half the 2020 season and has already missed time in OTAs. Wilson is out indefinitely after tearing his meniscus in May.

Sermon is going to be San Francisco's lead back at some point. The only question is when. And once he has the job, he has the talent and skill set to keep it—to become a featured back for a team that ranked second in the NFL in rushing attempts in its march to the Super Bowl in 2019.

Now, Sermon is a long shot to win OROY for a reason. Trevor Lawrence (+300) is the first overall pick in this year's draft and a Day 1 starter for the Jacksonville Jaguars at quarterback. Kyle Pitts (+750) of the Atlanta Falcons is arguably the most highly touted tight end prospect, well, ever. Harris (+800) will be the unquestioned featured back for the Pittsburgh Steelers from the get-go. Sermon's teammate Trey Lance (+800) could become San Francisco's quarterback sooner rather than later.

There are some other rookies with longer odds with a chance to work their way into the conversation as well. Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (+1800) just won the Heisman Trophy and will be Philly's No. 1 receiver. New York Jets running back Michael Carter (+2500) has a good chance to rapidly advance to the head of a muddied RB corps in the Big Apple.

But Lawrence will be leading a team that is riding a 15-game losing streak. Even elite tight end prospects have been known to struggle in Year 1. Harris will be playing behind an offensive line that ranks somewhere between atrocious and abysmal. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't just going to hand the starting job to Lance. Smith is a 170-pound wideout catching passes from a quarterback who completed 52 percent of his passes in 2020. And Carter, well, he plays for the Jets.

Sorry. That was rude.

Sermon has the perfect combination. He's a gifted young runner with a style that meshes seamlessly with his new team. That team has the makings of a playoff contender and sports the ninth-best offensive line in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. It's a team that loves to run the ball as much as any in the league. And if it all comes together, Sermon could provide a massive return on investment—both for San Francisco and the folks who have a little financial faith in him.

If you're the type who likes lottery tickets more than "sure things," then as far as the OROY race is concerned in 2021, the plausibility of a payout doesn't get any better than Trey Sermon.

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Take a look at the odds to win the National Football League's Most Valuable Player award at DraftKings, and it's mostly a list of the usual suspects. 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes is the favorite, because he's Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (the runner-up in 2020) comes in second. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (the reigning MVP) is third, despite the fact that no one knows where (or if) he will play in 2021.

Apparently, some people are either really optimistic or like setting money on fire. Whatever—I don't judge.

However, if long shots are more your cup of tea (and who doesn't like a long shot?), there's a young quarterback for a playoff contender who has both the talent and weapons around him to have a big second season in the pros. A southpaw signal-caller who could win you $66 for every dollar wagered. A dark horse with an actual chance to win the race.

That quarterback is Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins.

There has been quite a bit of hand-wringing in Miami over Tagovailoa's uneven rookie season. The fifth overall pick in 2020 didn't help matters when he admitted to reporters (via Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald) that he didn't have a great grasp of Miami's playbook in 2020.

"I wasn't comfortable calling plays," Tagovailoa said. "I think the guys that were here last year were phenomenal. I just didn't have the comfortability of checking plays, alerting plays and doing that. I just rode with the play, even if I knew it wasn't going to work. I was going to try to make it work still."

However, as Jeff Kerr reported for CBS Sports, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores was quick to come to the defense of his young quarterback while lauding the progress that Tagovailoa has made in the offseason.

"I think he's thinking about where he is right now versus that time a year ago, just reflecting. And that's good. This time is about reflection and where you are now versus where you were six months ago. I think he's worked hard to improve in a lot of areas, and I think he has and I think he's kind of communicated that out."

Per ESPN's Cameron Wolfe, the greatest quarterback in Dolphins history doesn't have any doubt that Tagovailoa can have a vastly improved Year 2.

"He's been great," Dan Marino said. "He's been awesome. He has all the talent in the world. Now it's just about him developing the relationship with the other players. It's been tough because he didn't have OTAs last year, a lot of the summer camp or the chance to play in exhibition games. All those things delay you somewhat. I'll tell you, he works his butt off. I'm really excited about him, his future and our future as a team."

Marino makes a couple of valid points.

It's not exactly unheard of for a young quarterback to struggle in his first season, especially when that quarterback has as much working against him as Tagovailoa did in 2020. The youngster's first NFL offseason was completely wiped out by the COVID-19 pandemic. Even if teams had been able to conduct OTAs and training camps, Tagovailoa's participation would have been limited at best as he worked his way back from the dislocated hip that ended his collegiate career. That injury could have also played a big part in Tagovailoa's struggles on the field in 2020.

But it wasn't that long ago that Tagovailoa wasn't just considered the top quarterback prospect in his class. The 6'0", 217-pounder was considered by some the best prospect at the position in several years. There was public speculation that NFL teams might "Tank for Tua."

But then Joe Burrow had maybe the best single season by a quarterback in college football history, while Tagovailoa got hurt.

Still, heading into the 2020 draft, Lance Zierlein of NFL.com wrote that Tagovailoa, "has the release, accuracy and touch needed to work all three levels successfully and can become a more disciplined, full-field reader to piece the puzzle together against NFL coverages."

Now that talented young quarterback has nine pro starts under his belt, and he's another year removed from his injury.

He's also at the helm of a pretty good football team.

Even with up-and-down play from Tagovailoa, the Dolphins still won 10 games last year and narrowly missed the postseason. There's no shortage of passing-game weaponry at Tagovailoa's disposal. In addition to holdovers like wide receiver DeVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki, the Dolphins brought in wide receiver Will Fuller V coming off a career year with the Houston Texans and added one of Tagovailoa's old Alabama teammates when they drafted Jaylen Waddle sixth overall.

Per Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Waddle has quickly made a positive impression on his new teammates.

However, while Miami's receiving corps is solid, the run game is a question mark. The Dolphins ranked 22nd in the league in rushing last year at 105.5 yards per game, and there wasn't a player on the team who gained even 600 yards on the ground.

If the Dolphins have any shot of hanging with the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, then Miami's offense is going to run through Tagovailoa. And as Kerr reported, Flores is focused on making sure Tagovailoa's second professional season is much better than the first.

"Last year is last year. I'm more of a forward-thinker," Flores said. "I think Tua—we've talked about his growth a lot from the last six months and how he's reflected on that. I think my focus is on helping him improve on a daily basis. Obviously, you use the past to kind of point you in the right direction of where to make those improvements and we'll just continue to focus on this one day at a time and help Tua."

Miami's biggest issue offensively is likely its young O-line. In 2020, Pro Football Focus ranked the Dolphins line as the fifth-worst in the league. Entering training camp, PFF slotted Miami's line even lower—ahead of only the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants.

It's going to take better line play than that for the Dolphins to make the playoffs in 2021. And make no mistake—to have any chance at being named MVP, Tagovailoa has to get the Dolphins into the postseason.

That's the thing with long shots. They are long shots for a reason. There's a lot that would have to happen in order for Tagovailoa to have a shot at headlining the NFL Honors next year in Los Angeles.

The line in front of Tagovailoa needs to hold up and give him time to throw the ball. The new receivers on the team need to add an ability to take the top off defenses—something that was lacking at times in 2020. And Tagovailoa needs to improve considerably as a passer, especially on those throws down the field.

However, it's hardly beyond the realm of reason that those things could actually happen. Miami's line wasn't good in 2020, but it's also very young, so there's lots of room for improvement. The Dolphins may well have the best receivers room (top to bottom) in the AFC East. And unless a whole lot of folks were wrong about the team's quarterback, Tagovailoa has only just scratched the surface of what he can do in the pros.

The Dolphins are capable of winning 11-12 games and giving the Bills a run for their money in the division. Tagovailoa has the weapons and the talent to take a big step forward in his second season.

And two of the last three MVPs were second-year signal-callers.

Occasionally, long shots hit.

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The Denver Broncos are the oddsmakers' clear favorite to land Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers if he's traded before the start of the 2021 NFL season.

DraftKings Sportsbook provided updated betting lines Tuesday for Rodgers' future, with a return to the Packers still listed as the most likely outcome, followed by a trade to the Broncos or Las Vegas Raiders:

Where Rodgers will open the new campaign has become a hot-button topic since ESPN's Adam Schefter reported in late April the reigning NFL MVP had "told some within the organization that he does not want to return to the team."

The 37-year-old Cal product hasn't publicly requested a trade, but he confirmed during an interview with longtime SportsCenter anchor Kenny Mayne, who hosted his last edition of the show Monday, there's a disagreement with the organization about "philosophy:"

"With my situation, look it's never been about the draft pick, picking Jordan [Love]. I love Jordan; he's a great kid. [We've had] a lot of fun to work together. Love the coaching staff, love my teammates, love the fan base in Green Bay. An incredible 16 years. It's just kind of about a philosophy and maybe forgetting that it is about the people that make the thing go. It's about character, it's about culture, it's about doing things the right way."

Green Bay selected Love in the first round of the 2020 draft without informing Rodgers about the intention to add his potential heir apparent.

The nine-time Pro Bowl selection declined to say during his interview with Mayne how he wanted to resolve the lingering issues with the franchise:

"I think sometimes people forget what really makes an organization. History is important, legacy of so many people who've come before you. But the people, that's the most important thing. People make an organization, people make a business and sometimes that gets forgotten. Culture is built brick by brick, the foundation of it by the people, not by the organization, not by the building, not by the corporation. It's built by the people.

"I've been fortunate enough to play with a number of amazing, amazing people and got to work for some amazing people as well. It's those people that build the foundation of those entities. I think sometimes we forget that."

Yahoo Sports' Charles Robinson reported in early May that Rodgers "remains adamant that he won't return to the team under the current stewardship of general manager Brian Gutekunst," but the leader of the Packers' front office has been steadfast in his own stance.

"We're not going to trade Aaron Rodgers," Gutekunst said April 29 after the team drafted cornerback Eric Stokes in the first round of the draft.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have been unable to find a long-term answer at quarterback. Rodgers could step in and transform the team into a championship contender in much the same way Peyton Manning did during the final years of his career after his long tenure with the Indianapolis Colts.

Mark Schlereth, a former Denver offensive lineman and current 104.3 The Fan radio host, posted on the first day of the draft that a Rodgers-to-Broncos trade was “close to a done deal,” but nothing has materialized.

The team did pass on the available quarterbacks with the ninth overall pick in the draft, instead opting for Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II, so the need for a QB is still there. As it stands, Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, who was acquired the day before the draft began, would compete for the starting job.

All of the other possible landing spots, including the Raiders, are long shots based on the current odds.