Despite having only played three full games, Brock Purdy is skyrocketing up the betting odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
DraftKings has the San Francisco 49ers quarterback with +1200 odds (bet $100 to win $1200) to win the award after Thursday's 21-13 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.
The only players with better odds than Purdy are wide receivers Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets (+175), Christian Watson of the Green Bay Packers (+300) and Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints (+400) and Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (+500).
Purdy was thrust into the starting lineup when Jimmy Garoppolo broke a bone in his foot during the 49ers' first offensive possession in Week 13 against the Miami Dolphins.
The final pick in the 2022 NFL draft, Purdy had only taken 18 garbage-time snaps in three games up to that point. He proceeded to throw for 210 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-17 win over the Dolphins.
In his first two starts, Purdy has completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 402 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. The 49ers clinched the NFC West with their victory over the Seahawks.
It seems unlikely that Purdy would be able to win the award due to a smaller sample size. He will start a maximum of five games in the regular season, though head coach Kyle Shanahan could potentially rest him in Week 18 if their playoff seed is locked up.
The fewest games played by any player to win Offensive Rookie of the Year since 2000 was Odell Beckham Jr. (12).
Olave leads all rookies in receiving yards (887), with Wilson a close second (868). Watson has been a scoring machine with eight total touchdowns in the past four games. Walker leads the Seahawks with nine total touchdowns, despite missing two games due to an injury.
Purdy's case will be helped by virtue of being a quarterback. There were concerns in the wake of Garoppolo's injury that the 49ers were no longer a viable threat to reach the Super Bowl in the NFC.
If the early returns for Purdy are any indication, San Francisco can still compete with anyone in the NFC.
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Despite improving to 2-1 last week, the Baltimore Ravens opened as a 3.5-point underdog for Sunday's Week 4 home game against the Buffalo Bills, according to DraftKings.
The line is especially notable because it's only the third time the Ravens have been home underdogs since Lamar Jackson became the team's starting quarterback in 2018, per Todd Karpovich of Sports Illustrated.
Baltimore won both of its last two games as a home dog, upsetting the New England Patriots in 2019 and Kansas City Chiefs in 2021.
The Ravens did lose their lone home game this season to the Miami Dolphins thanks to a 21-point fourth-quarter comeback in Week 2, but they have been dominant at M&T Bank Stadium in recent years. With Jackson starting, the team is 20-5 at home in the regular season.
It could mean bad news for the Bills, which also lost to the Dolphins last week to fall to 2-1.
This should be an exciting battle either way, featuring two of the early contenders for MVP in Jackson and Josh Allen.
If you believe strength of schedule is a key factor in what a team's over/under win total should be set at, the Dallas Cowboys are a very intriguing bet for the 2022 season.
The Cowboys and Washington Commanders are tied for the easiest schedule in the NFL based on their opponents' combined winning percentage from 2021 (.462).
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Cowboys' over/under set at 10.5. It is a high total, but there are three other teams—Buffalo Bills (11.5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11.5) and Green Bay Packers (11)—ahead of them.
2022 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings (Over/Under)
1. Los Angeles Rams — .567 (10.5)
2. Arizona Cardinals — .543 (8.5)
3. Cincinnati Bengals — . 536 (10)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — .535 (11.5)
T5. San Francisco 49ers — .533 (10)
T5. Kansas City Chiefs — .533 (10.5)
T7. Las Vegas Raiders — .528 (8.5)
T7. New Orleans Saints — .528 (8)
9. Atlanta Falcons — .524 (5)
10. Los Angeles Chargers — .519 (10)
11. Seattle Seahawks — .517 (5.5)
T12. Pittsburgh Steelers — .512 (7.5)
T12. Carolina Panthers — .512 (5.5)
T12. Buffalo Bills — .512 (11.5)
15. Denver Broncos — .509 (10)
16. New England Patriots — .498 (8.5)
T17. New York Jets — .495 (5.5)
T17. Cleveland Browns — .495 (N/A)
19. Houston Texans — .488 (4.5)
20. Minnesota Vikings — .484 (9)
21. Miami Dolphins — .481 (9)
22. Green Bay Packers — .478 (11)
23. Baltimore Ravens — .474 (9.5)
T24. Chicago Bears — .471 (6.5)
T24. Tennessee Titans — .471 (9)
T26. Jacksonville Jaguars — .469 (6)
T26. Indianapolis Colts — .469 (9.5)
28. Detroit Lions — .467 (6.5)
29. New York Giants — .465 (7)
30. Philadelphia Eagles — .464 (9.5)
T31. Dallas Cowboys — .462 (10.5)
T31. Washington Commanders — .462 (8)
Strength of schedule via Larry Holder of The Athletic. Over/under totals via DraftKings Sportsbook.
It's important to note that trying to base over/under totals on a team's strength of schedule, which accounts for what the opposition did in the previous year, isn't a great strategy for success.
Last year, for instance, the Giants, Panthers, Broncos, Dolphins, Falcons and Eagles all ranked in the top eight of easiest strength of schedule based on their 2020 opponents' winning percentage.
Three of those teams (Giants, Panthers, Broncos) finished last in their respective divisions.
But looking at the schedules going into next season, there are a couple of teams whose over/under totals stand out.
Optimism appears to be very high for the San Francisco 49ers. They are one of five NFC teams with an over/under projection of at least 10 right now.
It's understandable because they advanced to the NFC Championship Game last season and head coach Kyle Shanahan has built such a strong infrastructure around the quarterback that the offense regularly plays at a high level regardless of who is under center.
But no one has any idea what San Francisco's offense will look like with Trey Lance. He's certainly loaded with the traits to be a great player. As we saw with four of the other first-round quarterbacks selected in the 2021 NFL draft, there is a steep learning curve at this level.
Lance did make two starts for the 49ers last season when Jimmy Garoppolo was injured. He went 47-71 with 603 passing yards and five touchdowns in six games.
Of course, this assumes Lance is going to be the starter in San Francisco. Garoppolo remains on the roster as he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery.
ESPN's Nick Wagoner reported the team will start to pursue trades for Garoppolo when he gets medically cleared, which is expected to be in "late June or early July."
The schedule does line up favorably for Lance if he gets his first extended time as a starter. Four of San Francisco's first six games are against the Bears, Seahawks, Panthers and Falcons.
The two games mixed in with that stretch are at the Broncos and at home against the Rams.
After Week 6 against the Falcons, though, things get significantly more difficult for the 49ers. They host the Chiefs, travel to SoFi Stadium to play the Rams and play the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10 coming out of their bye.
Even though the 49ers went to the NFC Championship Game last season, they only won 10 games in the regular season. They had to erase a 17-point deficit against the Rams in Week 18 to hit that mark.
If Lance hits and key players, like Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, can avoid injuries, the 49ers could challenge for the best record in the NFC. But their ceiling depends on a 22-year-old quarterback in his second year with 71 career pass attempts.
On a more optimistic note, let's show some love to the New York Jets. Their over/under total of 5.5 is certainly easy to understand.
Zach Wilson, who was selected one pick ahead of Lance in last year's draft, was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL as a rookie.
The BYU alum completed 55.6 percent of his attempts for 2,334 yards with nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He was tied with Joe Burrow for most yards lost on sacks last season (370), despite playing in only 13 games.
Wilson absolutely has to play better, but the supporting cast he has around him is exponentially better than what the Jets had in 2021. His top three receivers last season were Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Keelan Cole.
The Jets added Garrett Wilson to that mix with the No. 10 overall pick in the draft. They also used a second-round pick on running back Breece Hall. The offensive line should be better after Laken Tomlinson was signed to play guard.
New York's 2022 draft class was widely praised as one of the best. Wilson, Ahmad Gardner and Jermaine Johnson were selected in the first round.
There are certainly some daunting tests on the Jets' schedule this season. They have a four-game stretch before their bye in Week 10 against the Packers at Lambeau Field, Broncos at Empower Field and back-to-back home games against the Patriots and Bills.
But there are winnable games on the schedule that can push them over 5.5 victories. The jury is still out on what the Dolphins offense will look like with Tua Tagovailoa. They gave him Tyreek Hill as another playmaker on the outside, along with Jaylen Waddle.
The Jets and Dolphins play twice as AFC East rivals. The key stretch for New York will start in Week 12 when it has a run against the Bears, Vikings, Bills, Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks and Dolphins.
At least four of those games should be winnable for the Jets, possibly five depending on how things break for the Vikings.
They don't look like a playoff-caliber team quite yet, but all of the Jets' offseason moves certainly suggest a roster heading in the right direction. It all comes down to whether or not Wilson takes a significant step forward in his development.
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The 2022 NFL draft might have only concluded Saturday, but oddsmakers are already looking ahead to next year.
Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is the betting favorite (+200; bet $100 to win $200) at DraftKings Sportsbook to be the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Stroud is followed by a pair of Alabama stars: quarterback Bryce Young (+225) and edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. (+330).
Stroud threw for 4,435 yards and 44 touchdowns in his first season as the Buckeyes' starting quarterback. Young likewise lived up to the hype after replacing 2020 first-round pick Mac Jones. He threw for 4,872 yards and 47 touchdowns.
Anderson, meanwhile, had one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory for a defensive player.
If the 2023 draft were right now, one of those three would likely be taken first overall.
This year offered a barren landscape at quarterback. Kenny Pickett was the only QB selected in the first two rounds. Malik Willis, who some thought could go second overall to the Detroit Lions, was a third-rounder.
The 2023 draft might be much more fertile ground for teams looking to target a signal-caller. In addition to Stroud and Young, Boston College's Phil Jurkovec (+1500), Miami's Tyler Van Dyke (+1800) and South Carolina's Spencer Rattler (+2000) are all fringe No. 1 pick contenders.
Rattler will be one of the most interesting players to watch from the 2023 class.
When the 2021 NFL season was getting ready to kick off, the then-Oklahoma star was the projected No. 1 pick in Bleacher Report's mock draft. As the year unfolded, Rattler's stock dropped precipitously.
Now in fresh scenery, the Gamecocks star might be able to climb to the top of draft boards again with a big 2022 season.
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have lost Bruce Arians, but the oddsmakers still think they're one of the NFL's two best teams heading into the 2022 season.
The Bucs and Buffalo Bills currently lead the NFL with a win total of 11.5, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs are immediately behind with an 11-win total, while the defending champion Los Angeles Rams trail behind with a 10.5-win number, tied with the Dallas Cowboys.
2022 NFL Season Over-Under Win Totals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5
Buffalo Bills 11.5
Green Bay Packers 11
Kansas City Chiefs 11
Los Angeles Rams 10.5
Dallas Cowboys 10.5
Denver Broncos 10
Los Angeles Chargers 10
Cincinnati Bengals 10
San Francisco 49ers 10
Tennessee Titans 9.5
Baltimore Ravens 9.5
Indianapolis Colts 9.5
Minnesota Vikings 9
Arizona Cardinals 9
Miami Dolphins 9
Las Vegas Raiders 8.5
Philadelphia Eagles 8.5
New England Patriots 8.5
New Orleans Saints 8
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5
Washington Commanders 7.5
Chicago Bears 7
New York Giants 7
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5
Seattle Seahawks 6.5
Detroit Lions 6
Carolina Panthers 6
New York Jets 5.5
Atlanta Falcons 5
Houston Texans 4.5
It's worth noting that win totals aren't a direct correlation to Super Bowl odds. The Cowboys' number is the same as the Rams, but they are 17-1 to win the Super Bowl versus the Rams' 10-1 odds.
That likely owes to the NFC East projecting as one of the worst divisions in the NFL, whereas the NFC West is one of the best. The Bucs' regular-season win total is also undoubtedly impacted by two of the four worst teams in football playing in the NFC South.
The Falcons, fresh off trading Matt Ryan and the loss of Calvin Ridley to a suspension, appear destined for a rebuild, according to the oddsmakers. The Texans have a dearth of talent on both sides of the ball and remain in the infancy of a rebuild thanks to a series of poor management decisions late in Bill O'Brien's tenure.
The trade of Deshaun Watson may finally allow the team to restock its talent coffers, but that won't help much in 2022.
The Cleveland Browns' regular-season number is currently off the board. Books are likely waiting to see whether the NFL suspends Watson for his off-field conduct before posting a win total, which will be heavily influenced by the number of games (if any) Watson misses. Watson is currently being sued by 22 women who accuse him of sexual misconduct; two different Texas grand juries refused to indict him on criminal charges.
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Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have won three of the last four NFL MVP awards, so it's no surprise oddsmakers are very high on their chances for the 2022 campaign.
Per Caesars Sportsbook (h/t ESPN's Doug Kezirian), Rodgers and Mahomes are co-favorites to be named MVP next season with 7-1 odds.
Rodgers' status is currently the biggest storyline of the NFL offseason. The 38-year-old has yet to announce if he will play next season, but the Green Bay Packers seem ready to do whatever it takes to keep him if he does.
ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Sunday that the Packers "are prepared to go all-in" for Rodgers, including "pending as close to the cap this year and spreading it into future years as much as possible" to retain him.
If Rodgers does play in 2022, he will look to become the first player since Brett Favre (1995-97) to win three straight MVP awards. He would also tie Peyton Manning's career record for MVPs with one more (five).
Mahomes has only received two MVP votes (both in 2020) since winning the award in 2018. The 26-year-old set a career-high last season with 13 interceptions, but he also completed 66.3 percent of his attempts for 4,839 yards and 37 touchdowns to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to their sixth straight AFC West title.
The top six favorites are all quarterbacks, including Josh Allen (9-1), Joe Burrow (12-1), Justin Herbert (14-1) and Matthew Stafford (15-1). Derrick Henry has the best odds of any non-quarterback at 18-1.
Lamar Jackson, who is the last player outside of Mahomes and Rodgers to win NFL MVP, has 22-1 odds to win it for the second time.
The last non-quarterback to win the MVP award was Adrian Peterson in 2012 when he ran for 2,097 yards for the Minnesota Vikings. Indianapolis Colts star Jonathan Taylor is the only other running back in the top 13 (30-1, tied with Russell Wilson).
Fresh off being named Super Bowl MVP, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is tied with Kyler Murray for the 10th-best odds to win the regular-season award (25-1).
At the bottom of the available odds is Tom Brady at 45-1. Despite announcing his retirement on Feb. 1, there have been whispers that he may not be fully committed to that decision.
Caesars Sportsbook director of trading Craig Mucklow told Kezirian they listed Brady at 45-1 to honor his age—he turns 45 on Aug. 3—and any MVP bets placed on him will be fully refunded if he doesn't take a snap next season.
After the Los Angeles Rams' victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI on Sunday, there are already eyes looking ahead to next year's title game.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are the early favorites to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in 2023. Both teams opened at +750 (bet $100 to win $750).
The reigning-champion Rams opened up behind the Bills and Chiefs at +1000. The Bengals are pegged right after them at +1400, which ties with the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers.
It's not a surprise that the Chiefs and Bills are at the top of the list, especially considering they are two of the most stable franchises in the league. Both teams will return their core players led by star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, respectively.
The most notable changes for Kansas City and Buffalo this offseason are likely to come on both of their coaching staffs. Buffalo lost longtime offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who accepted a head coaching position with the New York Giants.
On Sunday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy's future with the team is "uncertain" because his one-year contract is set to expire. Schefter noted that Bieniemy is expected to meet with Kansas City head coach Andy Reid sometime in the near future. The Chiefs already lost quarterbacks coach Mike Kafka, who is joining Daboll's staff as Giants offensive coordinator.
The teams with the longest odds of winning next year's Super Bowl are the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and New York Jets, who all opened at +15000.
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Super Bowl LVI wasn't a good one for Mattress Mack.
The Houston-area businessman, real name Jim McIngvale, wagered $9.5 million on the Cincinnati Bengals in Sunday's big game, but the squad fell short with a 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
McIngvale initially wagered about $4.5 million on the Bengals moneyline before adding another $5 million bet, the largest in Super Bowl history, per Darren Rovell of The Action Network.
That put $16,207,800 on the line through Caesars Sportsbook.
Despite the lofty wagers, Mattress Mack seemed relatively calm as the game neared its conclusion:
The game eventually ended with Cooper Kupp scoring a go-ahead touchdown in the final minutes.
McIngvale won $2.75 million in last year's Super Bowl, successfully betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. There have also been big losses with these wagers, including his $2.4 million bet in the Kentucky Derby.
Mattress Mack was on the losing end this time around, but he likely isn't done at the sportsbooks.
