The Red Sox Are the Biggest Loser of MLB's Wild Offseason
The Boston Red Sox have been through such things as an 86-year championship drought, Chicken-and-Beer-Gate and Bobby Valentine's managing, so the phrase "low point" has no business being used in conjunction with the offseason they're having.
But "baffling point?" Or "befuddling point?" Now we're talking.
While other teams revel in their contributions to Major League Baseball's record-setting $3.5 billion offseason, the Red Sox are in a corner typically reserved for the Eeyores and Richie Tenenbaums of the world. Heavy losses will do that, and it feels like they've suffered even more of those this winter than they did during their pitiful 36-53 slide to last place in the American League East during the back half of the 2022 season.
Franchise shortstop Xander Bogaerts? He's gone to the San Diego Padres, and who can blame him? Especially now that, courtesy of ESPN's Joon Lee, it's out there that Boston set the stage for his exit with "a slap" of an initial offer.
Fellow middle-of-the-lineup mainstay J.D. Martinez? He's now a Los Angeles Dodger. Lefty sidewinder Matt Strahm? A Philadelphia Phillie. Fellow hurlers Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can still technically return to Beantown, but rumors of interest in each of them elsewhere don't bode well in the context of all of the above.
Even Boston's less painful departures still hurt in other ways. The designations for assignment of Eric Hosmer and Jeter Downs, specifically, leave the Red Sox with even less to show for trades involving young lefty Jay Groome and some guy named Mookie Betts.
This Isn't for Lack of Trying (and That's Not a Compliment)
The ironic part is that the Red Sox's offseason actually started on a positive note.
They began dealing before the '22 season was even over, inking Enrique Hernández to a $10 million extension in September. An encouraging move on its own, and that much more so, given what chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told the versatile 31-year-old.
"I'm not going to say he promised me," Hernández said, "but he promised me that we're going to be way better next year."
So it went in October, when there was buzz about the Red Sox extending Bogaerts and adding much-needed power. And into November, wherein Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that the Red Sox were showing a "strong willingness to spend." And even to earlier this month, when Bloom openly spoke of adding "seven, eight, nine, maybe more players."
It all sounded so good. And not even too good to be true, either.
Boston's projected 2023 payroll was at one point more than $80 million in average annual value short of next year's $233 million luxury-tax threshold. It's also not as if the Red Sox have been strangers to big spending in 20 years under John Henry, whose Fenway Sports Group empire is reportedly worth $9.8 billion.
And yet, here they are. Not just with a cringe-worthy list of departures but sans even one of the market's top-25 free agents or a single upgrade via the trade market. All because of hubris. Or maybe ignorance. Or some combination of the two.
It's all there in the Bogaerts saga. The supposed slap-like offer that Boston made him during spring training called for him to get another year and $30 million on top of the three years and $60 million he had remaining on his contract. At $90 million, the total guarantee was $50 million less than what the Red Sox had just given to Trevor Story.
Fast-forward to December, and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported Boston's final offer to be a whopping $120 million south of the $280 million he got from the Padres.
Even at the time, Boston seemed guilty of misreading the market. It was apparent that it was going to be hotter than expected when relievers Rafael Montero and Robert Suárez signed above-market deals in November. Once Jacob deGrom, Trea Turner and Aaron Judge greeted the winter meetings with deals worth a combined $845 million, even more so.
Now there's no longer any need to speculate. This quote from Bogaerts' agent, Scott Boras, on the Red Sox to Lee speaks volumes: "I can only say that the market for Xander was very different from what their models said. But that's happened before."
It's easy to put this on Bloom, and not undeservedly so, given Boras' subsequent shade about Bloom's player evaluations being "very defined." Yet ample blame must also be set aside for Henry and co-owners Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino. Bloom is their guy, after all, and one wonders if his valuations are so strict because his budget is, too.
What the Red Sox Have Done Isn't Nearly Good Enough
The Red Sox have, of course, not been totally derelict in their duty of improving the team.
Spotrac puts their free-agent spending at $73.2 million, which covers third baseman Justin Turner and relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodríguez. It's technically not counting Japanese star Masataka Yoshida, who inked a five-year, $90 million pact with Boston.
Heck of a lot of good it's done them, though. If FanGraphs' WAR projections for 2023 are any indication, the Red Sox are on track to be one of the AL's worst teams once again:
This right here highlights the major distinction between the Red Sox and other offseason losers like, say, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Though they've also suffered heavy losses while doing less than expected, they still project as a top-five team in the National League.
And this outlook might actually be too bullish on Boston, if for no other reason than it's contingent on the extremely unlikely possibility of the club getting 3.0 WAR from an older, more injury-prone Chris Sale.
There's likewise room for doubt as to whether Jansen will solidify Boston's bullpen from the top down. His reputation precedes him, but he's fresh off a career-high contact rate, and his slow tempo casts him as a bad fit for the upcoming pitch timer.
The Red Sox may therefore need their offense to do the heavy lifting in 2023, perhaps to a point where it'll need to be even better than the unit that finished fourth in the AL in scoring this past season.
This, also, is extremely unlikely.
The Red Sox will need Turner and Yoshida to be at least as good as Bogaerts and Martinez, who combined for a 127 wRC+ in 2022. Alas, the 38-year-old Turner is effectively an older and less powerful Martinez. And while Yoshida was a .326 hitter with decent power in Japan, seemingly nobody but the Red Sox believe he'll be an impact hitter in the majors.
Good Luck Trying to Salvage This Offseason
The silver lining should be that the Red Sox still have ample time to salvage their offseason, but what they don't have in as much abundance as time is options.
The free-agent market, as noted, has largely been picked clean. That basically leaves the trade market, which Bloom identified as "a really good route to adding impact to our club" to Chad Jennings of The Athletic.
And yet, it's doubtful that slugging first base prospect Triston Casas and hard-throwing righty Brayan Bello are going anywhere while they're slated to be a part of the big club in 2023. One supposes there's always Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran, but they have "value" like Wally has a full set of fingers.
None of this necessarily helps Boston's leverage in trade talks. Nor does the fact that the club's predicament is an open secret. It's hard to imagine them getting a favorable deal on anyone, particularly not on guys like Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds (who wants out) and Cleveland Guardians shortstop Amed Rosario (who seems redundant).
Rather than miraculously acquiring immediate upgrades, the Red Sox's best hope for redeeming their offseason concerns Rafael Devers.
Ideally, the Red Sox will extend him before free agency calls his number after the 2023 season. The two-time All-Star third baseman is only 26 and thus a relatively safe bet for the kind of lifetime contract that's suddenly en vogue around MLB.
But since the word from Lee is that Devers and the Red Sox are "galaxies apart" in negotiations—and, boy, does that track right now— it's hard not to ponder if trading Devers is the more practical thing to do.
Even setting aside the galactic gulf in contract talks, there's logic in selling high on him now while he's riding high after slamming 65 home runs across 2021 and 2022. Perhaps he'll remain that guy in 2023, but there's always the possibility of him running afoul of injuries or ineffectiveness and losing value accordingly.
This, to be sure, is the nuclear option for what offseason the Red Sox have left to work with. But, hey, the fact that anyone can even have this thought is on them.
When you go from teasing the construction of a "way better" team to desperately trying to avoid becoming an even worse team, you've messed up.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
