Yankees Rumors: Latest Buzz on Luis Severino's Return Timeline from Elbow Injury

The New York Yankees thought they had it all lined up.
Fresh off another crushing ALCS defeat at the hands of the Houston Astros, the Bronx Bombers pried star right-hander Gerrit Cole away from the Astros in free agency.
With Luis Severino getting a full offseason to strengthen his elbow and James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka in the middle of the rotation, the Yankees likely felt Cole would be the final piece of the puzzle.
But things started to fall apart in February when Paxton underwent surgery on his back. Just over three weeks later, the Yankees received another crushing blow: Severino needed Tommy John surgery, and would be forced to miss the entirety of the 2020 season.
Whereas Paxton's injury merely seemed like a blip on the radar, Severino's injury issues have plagued him dating back to spring training in 2019.
Severino was scratched from his very first spring training start due to "rotator cuff inflammation." Just over a month later, he was shut down for six weeks due to a Grade 2 lat strain. But the weeks would turn into months, with Severino making just three starts during the regular season before a pair of shaky postseason outings against the Minnesota Twins and Astros, respectively.
The Yankees initially designated Severino with forearm soreness earlier this spring prior to receiving a second opinion, which revealed he had a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament.
Players typically recover from Tommy John within 12 to 18 months. For those thinking more optimistically, that would mean Severino would be cleared just ahead of spring training in 2021.
However, George A. King III of the New York Post reported on Saturday Severino likely would not be ready until next June, even adding "that might be too early."
Despite King's timeline, Severino said he has been "progressing well" and feels "way better" after having the surgery and beginning his rehab in Tampa, Florida. He also said he was looking ahead:
"Of course, it's disappointing, but I want to look long term. I want to be healthy for a long time. So I want to use this year—and last year—to get better, listen to my body. Of course, I was mad at that time [of the injuries], but right now I just want to worry about getting healthy again and having a long career."
The Yankees might be wise to exhibit caution with respect to Severino's health and availability. He previously complained about feeling pain particularly when throwing his changeup, and it is imperative the Yanks give him time to feel more comfortable throwing that pitch.
Severino can be dominant at his best. The 26-year-old went 14-2 a 2.31 ERA in his first 20 starts of the 2018 campaign. But his ERA ballooned after the All-Star break, in part because opposing hitters raked against his fastball.
Although Severino had success once he could get to his slider, opponent hitters slugged .449 against the heater in 2018, per Baseball Savant. This is not a one-off, either, as opponents have slugged closer to .500 against Severino's fastball since he came to the bigs in 2015.
Given Severino only has a three-pitch arsenal, establishing a greater feeling and comfort level with the off-speed figures to make him much more effective on the hill. It also figures to be a decent gauge for his health.
All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted.