ONE Championship: Predictions, How to Watch Geje Eustaquio vs. Adriano Moraes

ONE Championship Flyweight World Champion Geje Eustaquio vs. Adriano Moraes on Friday is the next chapter in this fierce rivalry, and it's the first time in ONE history that two athletes are competing against each other for a third match.
Moraes won the first bout comfortably more than four years ago by guillotine choke late in the second round, but Eustaquio exacted his revenge in June 2018 when it mattered most, defeating Moraes by split decision in a thrilling contest to become the new Flyweight Champ.
Both athletes are now familiar with their differing styles and destined to put on tactical clinics, which should make for an intriguing rubber match.
But who are Eustaquio and Moraes? How did they get here? What's on the line for both men?
There's a lot to discuss heading in, and Bleacher Report Live is here to help. Here is everything you need to know about Geje Eustaquio vs. Adriano Moraes.
Where and How to Watch Geje Eustaquio vs. Adriano Moraes
Geje Eustaquio vs. Adriano Moraes will take place at ONE: Hero's Ascent on Jan. 25. The event will be held at Mall of Asia Arena in Manila, Philippines.
Those in the U.S. can watch the contest for free on B/R Live.
The main card starts at approximately 7:30 a.m. ET, but before it is a four-match preliminary card that begins at 6 a.m. ET.
The full card order stands as follows:
Main Card
• Geje Eustaquio vs. Adriano Moraes (Flyweight World Championship)
• Honorio Banario vs. Lowen Tynanes (Lightweight World Grand Prix Quarter-Final)
• Danny Kingad vs. Tatsumitsu Wada
• Fahdi Khaled vs. Rodtang Jitmuangnon (Muay Thai)
• Reinier De Ridder vs. Fan Rong
• Josh Tonna vs. Hiroki Akimoto (Kickboxing)
• Brown Pinas vs. Bangpleenoi Petchyindee Academy (Muay Thai)
Preliminary Card
• Elias Mahmoudi vs. Yukinori Ogasawara (Muay Thai)
• Sung Jong Lee vs. Tang Kai
• Mohammed Bin Mahmoud vs. Hiroaki Suzuki (Muay Thai)
• Egi Rozten vs. Himanshu Kaushik
Geje Eustaquio

Age: 29
Height: 5'5"
Weight: 125 pounds
Stance: Orthodox
Record: 11-6 (2 KO, 2 Submission)
ONE Record: 8-5
Geje Eustaquio will be the people's champion on Friday as he defends his belt in front of over 15,000 of his fellow countrymen in a raucous Mall of Asia Arena.
And although his record is nothing to write home about, his knack for vengeance (3-0 in rematches, one of which came against Moraes) is quite a feat.
The Filipino has impressed with his precise striking and defense. He doesn't often finish an opponent, as his last four matches have all ended in a decision, but when your two best qualities are striking and defense, you're going to win a decision more often than not.
Eustaquio has talked a big game in the week leading up to this historic match, all while keeping his cards close to his chest.
"I am 101 percent ready," Eustaquio said. "I believe I became hungrier, became a better fighter compared to the last time we went at it. That's the thing I'm looking forward to, and I'm ready. The camp prepared for this show...I'm gonna be putting up some surprises. You're gonna see it."
The big question facing Eustaquio is how he will fare against an athlete like Moraes, who is one of the best ground technicians in the world. He already outlasted him once, but that's exactly why the odds are against him this time. Can he really stop Moraes again?
Adriano Moraes

Age: 29
Height: 5'8"
Weight: 125 pounds
Stance: Orthodox
Record: 17-3 (3 KO, 9 Submissions)
ONE Record: 8-3
Adriano Moraes is a master of Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He'll do what he can to bring the match to the canvas and remind us why we've come to know him as a submission specialist.
He will not want to stand up with Eustaquio and exchange punches. Instead, he'll look to use his grappling to take him down and search for a variety of different chokes.
Before dropping his title to Eustaquio, Moraes hadn't lost in over two years. In fact, the Brazilian has never lost two matches in a row.
However, in the three bouts Moraes did lose, it always came down to a split decision. To avoid that from happening again, Moraes said a first- or second-round finish is in the works during the ONE: Hero's Ascent press conference.
"This fight will not go to the judges," Moraes said.
He also doesn't seem too concerned about any advantage Eustaquio may have competing in his home nation.
"It doesn't affect me," the former flyweight champion said. "I guess it's going to affect him...the pressure is on him."
Moraes' biggest concern will be the effectiveness of Eustaquio's defense on the mat.
Despite successful takedowns and favorable positioning during their last match, Moraes was never able to take advantage of it due to the champion's ability to protect his neck from any choke attempts and his strength to roll both competitors over when Moraes was on Eustaquio's back.
If he wants to be the first-ever three-time ONE champion, he would prefer the match not be decided by the judges.
Geje Eustaquio vs. Adriano Moraes Prediction

Adriano Moraes seemed a bit out of sorts during his last match with Eustaquio. In fairness, this was an opponent he beat rather easily in their first bout. Perhaps Moraes was taken back by how much the Filipino had improved since then.
Naysayers will be quick to point out that Moraes has finally met someone that can negate his submission skills.
There's a kernel of truth to this, but we're talking about perhaps the best non-American athlete on the ONE roster.
Yes, Eustaquio has improved drastically over the past year and has beaten the best flyweights in the division. However, it seems like Moraes has a clear understanding of where he went wrong last time. He is out to prove a point on Friday, and that point is that he's the greatest Flyweight Champion in ONE history.
Eustaquio has proved he can hang with the best of the best, but the difference between him and Moraes is that the latter can turn a match on its head in a moment, and there are plenty of moments that go by in five rounds.
Eustaquio was brilliant last June with his defensive strategy against Moraes, but it's asking so much of a person to plan for everything that a competitor like Moraes throws at you for a third time.
Although Eustaquio has gotten the better of him before, Moraes will be the aggressor on Friday in order to find the submission and leave it out of the judges' hands.
Prediction: Adriano Moraes def. Geje Eustaquio by rear-naked choke in Rd. 3 to become the first three-time ONE Champion and will eventually defend his title against ONE newcomer and UFC legend Demetrious Johnson.
Related Links
In addition to this piece, B/R Live has also covered the rights agreement between ONE Championship and Turner Sports, as well as an in-depth look at ONE.