MLB Betting: Underdog Orioles' Win vs. Astros 1 of the Biggest Upsets in 15 Years
Aug 12, 2019
BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 11: Rio Ruiz #14 of the Baltimore Orioles is congratulated by teammates after hitting a walk-off home run during the ninth inning against the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 11, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
Coming off a 23-2 win over the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, the Houston Astros were understandably heavy favorites Sunday.
The Orioles scored three runs in the ninth inning to win 8-7, leading to some sizable payouts to bettors.
According to ESPN's David Purdum, Baltimore owned a +420 moneyline, with Houston a -460 favorite at some sportsbooks in the United States. Using a Bet Labs database that tracks betting odds since 2005, the Orioles were one of the biggest betting underdogs to pick up a victory.
Because of the gulf in the teams' respective odds, Purdum wrote the Orioles had 97 percent of the money at Caesars Sportsbook.
Heading into the ninth, the Orioles trailed 7-5 after an error by right fielder Anthony Santander allowed Michael Brantley to drive in two runs and round the bases.
At 39-78, the Orioles own MLB's second-worst record and have little else to play for over the remainder of the year.
But that won't stop them from occasionally making life a nightmare for oddsmakers.
Orioles Manager Brandon Hyde After Chris Davis Dustup: 'Frustration Boils Over'
Aug 7, 2019
BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 02: Manager Brandon Hyde #18 of the Baltimore Orioles looks on during the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 2, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
After being involved in a heated exchange with first baseman Chris Davis during a 14-2 loss to the New York Yankees on Wednesday, Baltimore Orioles manager Brandon Hyde downplayed the dugout altercation while saying "frustration boils over" at times.
The first-year skipper told reporters after the game:
"It was just a disagreement we had in the dugout. What was said and what we talked about, I'm not going to get into. We're going to keep it in house. It's private. But, yeah, it's just, you know, something that happens sometimes, and frustration boils over a little bit when not playing our best baseball the last couple games. And unfortunately, I'm embarrassed that it was caught on camera and people had to see it, but sometimes those things happen."
The incident in question came during the bottom of the fifth inning, when Davis had to be restrained by outfielder Mark Trumbo and hitting coach Don Long:
Davis, who was 0-for-1 with a strikeout, was removed from the game for pinch hitter Jace Peterson. When asked about pulling Davis, Hyde made it clear that it was his decision.
"We had words, and I took him out of the game," Hyde said.
He noted that he and Davis have a "good relationship" and that disputes like that happen in "competitive environments." He expects both he and the veteran player will be able to put the matter behind them.
It marked just the latest lowlight in what has been a rough season in Baltimore. Wednesday's loss marked the end of a three-game sweep that saw the Yankees outscore the Orioles by a combined score of 32-12. The loss drops them to 38-76 on the season, putting them 37 games back in the American League East—and there are still 48 games to play.
Meanwhile, Davis has struggled mightily once again, as his average is below the Mendoza Line for the second consecutive season. He is hitting .182/.269/.320 with nine home runs and 31 RBI in 84 games.
From Sept. 14 of last year to April 13, the 2013 Silver Slugger's had to endure a record 62 consecutive plate appearances without a base hit.
At this point, the only thing keeping Davis in the lineup, and possibly on the roster, is his enormous contract. Not only is he making $17 million this season, but the 33-year-old still has three years and $51 million remaining on the seven-year, $161 million deal he signed back in January 2016.
Video: Watch Jonathan Villar Become 5th Orioles Player to Hit for Cycle
Aug 6, 2019
Baltimore Orioles' Jonathan Villar follows through on a triple against the New York Yankees in the third inning of a baseball game, Monday, Aug. 5, 2019, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Gail Burton)
It's been a long season for the Baltimore Orioles, but Jonathan Villar provided a bright spot Monday.
The shortstop hit for the cycle against the New York Yankees in a 9-6 loss:
He was just the third home player to accomplish the feat since Oriole Park at Camden Yards opened in 1992.
Villar got the difficult part of the cycle out of the way early with a triple in the third inning; it was just the 13th of his seven-year career. He hustled on his second hit to stretch a single into a double.
After he homered in the sixth, he needed only a single in his final at-bat and came through in the ninth against Aroldis Chapman. Villar finished 4-for-5 with two RBI and two runs.
Though the Orioles fell to 38-74, Villar is having a strong season with 15 home runs and a .768 OPS, both of which are the second-highest marks of his major league career.
Orioles' Steve Wilkerson Becomes 1st Position Player to Earn Save
Jul 26, 2019
Baltimore Orioles outfielder Stevie Wilkerson throws to the plate as he pitches during the 16th inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels Friday, July 26, 2019, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Wilkerson threw 14 pitches in a perfect inning, retiring Brian Goodwin, Kole Calhoun and Albert Pujols in the 10-8 victory.
Below is a closer look at the right-hander's performance:
Stevie Wilkerson closed out the Angels in the 16th inning throwing 55 mph lobs. His average velo was 54.3. Pretty hilarious. pic.twitter.com/zREuhXGtYj
As manager Brandon Hyde said after the game, "It's below hitting speed [55 mph or so], so that's hard."
Thursday night was not the first time this season Wilkerson has pitched. In fact, it was the third time in the last two weeks he has taken the mound.
He previously threw a perfect inning against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 12 and allowed one run on two hits in two innings against the Boston Red Sox on July 20. While those appearances came during blowout losses for the 33-69 O's, he realized as the night went on he may be called upon.
"I knew we were running thin on guys," Wilkersonsaidafter the six-hour, 19-minute battle. "I knew it was a possibility when the game was getting late."
It's not often that a player who goes 1-for-7 at the plate is the story of the game, but unusual circumstances allowed Wilkerson to be one of the heroes Thursday.
"I don't think I've wrapped my head around it yet," hetold reporters.
Saves did not become an official statistic until 1969.
MLB Draft Top Pick Adley Rutschman, Orioles Agree to Record $8.1M Contract
The bonus is the largest of its kind, breaking the previous record of $8 million set by Gerrit Cole in 2011.
The first overall pick came with a slot value of $8.42 million, per MLB.com, leaving the Orioles the opportunity to spend the rest of the money on their other picks.
The team's second-round pick,GunnarHenderson,signedanoverslotdeal worth $2.3 million, while third-round selection Zach Watson remains unsigned.
While this represents an important haul for a team desperate for talent, gettingRutschmansigned was a must considering his overall talent.
JimCallisof MLB.com argued he was easily the top catching prospect in the past decade, while some scouts rated him even more favorably to Buster Posey and Joe Mauer:
"AdleyRutschmanhas everything scouts want in a catcher. He's a switch-hitter who's a monster at the plate, capable of hitting for plenty of average and power while drawing a ton of walks. Behind it, he has a strong arm, impressive receiving and blocking skills—plus leadership ability off the charts."
He is coming off a dominant season for Oregon State, hitting .411 with a .575 on-base percentage and adding 17 home runs in 57 games. He earned 76 walks while only striking out 38 times as one of the most feared players in college baseball.
With an advanced skill set, Rutschmanhas a chance to rise quickly through the minor leagues and make a positive impact for the Orioles before too long.
2019 MLB Draft Results: Grades and Order Listing for Each Team Before Day 2
Jun 4, 2019
Oregon State's Adley Rutschman singles against Arkansas during the fifth inning of Game 3 of the NCAA College World Series baseball finals, Thursday, June 28, 2018, in Omaha, Neb. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
Day 1 of the 2019 MLB draft made 78 dreams come true, and now everybody will try to figure out which of the 78 prospects will translate successfully to their new Major League Baseball homes.
Much has to happen before the answers become clear, but below is an early look at grades for each of the 30 MLB teams that selected Monday night.
For an updated draft order heading into Tuesday, visit MLB.com. The draft is available to watch on MLB Network and MLB.com.
Atlanta Braves: No. 9 Shea Langeliers, C, Baylor; No. 21 Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M; No. 60 Philip Beau, SS, Oregon State
Grade: B
Baltimore Orioles: No. 1 Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State; No. 42 Gunnar Henderson, SS, John T. Morgan Academy; No. 71 Kyle Stowers, OF, Stanford
Last season, Adley Rutschman led the Oregon State Beavers to a national title as the 2018 College World Series' Most Outstanding Player. He followed that up by being named the 2019 Pac-12 Player of the Year after a conference-leading batting average (.419).
The 6'2", 216-pound junior also led the country with a .580 on-base percentage, 1.345 OPS as well as 73 walks this season.
His power is so feared that he was intentionally walked with the bases loaded earlier this week:
ESPN's Tim Kurkjian praised the Orioles' top choice as soon as the pick was announced: "He's a switch-hitter He's got power. He's got great makeup. He's a classic gym rat. People compare him to Buster Posey. The Orioles got the perfect guy to build around."
As for the comparison to Posey, a National League scouting executive told MLB.com's Jim Callis that Rutschman is "at the top for me" in terms of best catching prospects since the single draft format was implemented by MLB in 1987.
"The only college catcher who compares to him is Buster Posey, and Rutschman has more power than we thought Buster had, and I think the kid is a better catcher than Buster."
The last time Baltimore selected a catcher with the first overall pick, it was Matt Wieters in 2007. He had four All-Star seasons and two Gold Glove seasons for the Orioles. At an MLB-worst 18-41, the Orioles will welcome that potential behind the plate with open arms.
Grade: A+
Boston Red Sox: No. 43 Cameron Cannon, SS, Arizona; No. 69 Matthew Lugo, SS, Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy
The World Series champions didn't select until the second round, but they used their two picks Monday night wisely. Cannon hit .397 this season for Arizona. While he only cranked seven home runs, he led Division I with 29 doubles (h/t MassLive.com's Chris Cotillo).
MLB.com described Cannon as "a classic grinder who gets the most out of his tools. ... Some scouts think he could hit his way to a big league starting job while others project him as a utilityman."
"He's very versatile," Boston's vice president of amateur scouting Mike Rikard said, per Cotillo. "He has played quite a bit of shortstop at the University of Arizona, but he has also played some second base as well as playing some third base last summer in the Cape. Not exactly sure what exactly is going to be the best fit for him, but we do like the fact he's been able to move around through his career."
The 21-year-old joins a system stacked with infield talent—nine of Boston's top-30 prospects are listed as infielders—which gives the organization room to take a slight risk.
Lugo, who is the nephew of retired 20-year MLB veteran Carlos Beltran, is the highest-ranked Puerto Rican prospect in the 2019 draft class. There is a chance the 6'1", 185-pound shortstop could choose to play at the University of Miami, where he's committed.
Grade: B
Chicago White Sox: No. 3 Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California; No. 45 Matthew Thompson, P, Cypress Ranch HS (TX)
"What [Stephen] Curry is to the Warriors, Andrew is to Cal," Vaughn's longtime hitting coach Joey Gomes, a former eighth-round draft pick and brother to Jonny Gomes, told NBC Sports' Dalton Johnson. "He literally makes everyone else around him better."
Vaughn was given the 2018 Golden Spikes Award, presented to the best amateur baseball player in the nation, in 2018 after recording 23 home runs compared to just 18 strikeouts as a sophomore. Other recipients of the award include Kris Bryant, Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg.
In fact, ESPN's Jeff Passan compared Vaughn to Bryant:
Andrew Vaughn is a phenomenal hitter -- the best in the draft, arguably the best college hitter since Kris Bryant. The only question is positional. He's got to hit and hit a lot to play at first. But ... he's worked out for teams at third. If he can stick there, value skyrockets.
At just 6'0", there is a slight concern surrounding how Vaughn will translate to first base. "A 6-foot tall collegiate first baseman who bats and throws right and required a top pick to acquire," wrote CBS Sports' R.J. Anderson. "History is not kind to many of those descriptions."
Anderson added:
"To make matters even worse, Vaughn is a right-handed hitter. At any given time, there's roughly three right-handed first basemen who most teams value as long-term pieces. Otherwise, they're by and large viewed as expendable pieces—that's not the description you want when you're selecting someone third overall."
Vaughn's upside is worth betting on, especially if he can make the transition to third base where the White Sox missed out on adding Manny Machado as a free agent in February.
Grade: B
Chicago Cubs: No. 27 Ryan Jensen, P, Fresno State; No. 64 Chase Strumpf, 2B, UCLA
Grade: B-
Cincinnati Reds: No. 7 Nick Lodolo, P, TCU; No. 49 Rece Hinds, SS, IMG Academy
The last first baseman to be selected in Round 1 by Colorado was All-Star Todd Helton in 1995, according to 9News' Jeremy Chavez, and the Rockies will hope history repeats itself with Toglia.
Grade: B
Detroit Tigers: No. 5 Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (FL); No. 47 Nick Quintana, 3B, Arizona
The Tigers select OF Riley Greene with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft.
Greene is considered the best HS hitter in the draft.
The Tigers are banking on his power to develop, and if that happens, he could be an excellent selection.
— Cody Stavenhagen (@CodyStavenhagen) June 3, 2019
MLB.com asserted that "there is no one who doubts Greene will hit at the next level." The 18-year-old University of Florida commit led USA Baseball's 18 and Under National Team in RBIs this spring and has been scouted heavily by many in the Tigers front office throughout the spring.
"You'd have to see it to believe some of the stuff he does," Greene's high school coach of three years, Matt Cleveland, told the Detroit Free Press' Jeff Seidel. "You just scratch your head. He's a really good athlete, great outfielder, and the hit tool is not like anything I've ever seen; and I've coached a lot of good players, probably eight pro guys on my high school team."
"It's not normal what he does," Cleveland added.
Viewed as the best pure bat in the HS class, #Tigers Riley Greene already boasts a plus hit tool. Body is very projectable, according to scouts. Defensively, profile appears to point to a corner OF slot. Speed & arm are graded as average, but the athleticism plays to his favor.
— Patrick Mahomes II (@PatrickMahomes) June 3, 2019
While that is a very high bar to set for an 18-year-old, everything the 6'1", 180-pound potential five-tool prospect has shown on the diamond thus far makes it feel obtainable. The Athletic's Rustin Dodd reported that Royals officials see Witt Jr. as being from the "same family of players" as Adalberto Mondesi, Kansas City's current shortstop.
Mondesi, for context, leads MLB with eight triples and 21 stolen bases.
Jim Callis of MLB.com had an even more favorable comparison than Patrick Mahomes:
"There's no question that Witt is the best shortstop prospect in a 2019 Draft full of first-round candidates at the position. He also compares favorably to the best since MLB switched to a single unified Draft in 1987. We surveyed several veteran scouts, and the consensus was that only one shortstop in the last 32 years ranks ahead of Witt.
"'Alex Rodriguez is the best shortstop prospect I've seen, but Bobby Witt Jr. certainly belongs right up there,' a longtime scout now with a NL club said. 'He can match up with guys toolswise and what he also has is a high baseball IQ. People lose sight of it because the tools are so strong, but he's a really good player to go with it.'"
Witt Jr. hit .489 with 15 home runs compared to just 11 strikeouts this season for Colleyville Heritage High School.
Grade: A+
Los Angeles Angels: No. 15 Will Wilson, SS, North Carolina State; No. 55 Kyren Paris, SS, Freedom HS (CA)
Will Wilson is one of the better college hitters in the class and has plus raw power. Probably not a shortstop thanks to below-average speed but his hands and arm are good enough for second.
Milwaukee Brewers: No. 28 Ethan Small, P, Mississippi State; No. 65 Antoine Kelly, P, Wabash Valley College
Ethan Small was the SEC strikeout leader in 2019. He has above-average command, generates frequent swings-and-misses. Throws 86-92 mph. Has already had Tommy John surgery. Brewers view him as possible future rotation piece.
“He is a pitcher,” scouting director Tod Johnson said.
Keoni Cavaco is the biggest pop-up prospect I can think of in years....some 2nd rounders in recent years, but can't come up with an off-the-radar guy who climbed to top 15 in many years.
Bryson Stott hit .356 with a 1.085 OPS in 58 games this season at UNLV. Phillies love this: 39 K, 55 BB in 222 at-bats. He should be able to stick at shortstop.
I think #Mariners hit the jackpot with @ElonBaseball's George Kirby at pick 20. I know I’m an outlier here, but he’s my favorite arm in this draft: easy 93-97 with impeccable control (107-6 K-BB, for a power pitcher). Offspeed is coming. My Kirby profile:https://t.co/wVuXis68RB
The @Rangers take one of my favorites, @TTU_Baseball’s Josh Jung 8th overall. Jung is an outstanding hitter and third baseman, and he’s done a swell job at shortstop this season, too.
I love the Rangers pick of Josh Jung. Some question whether he can stick at 3B, but I believe other scouts who see him as a solid 3B--he's moved over to SS to help out the team and has been surprisingly adept there.
Rangers needs this pick to click after a lot of draft injuries.
*Draft information courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise specified
C Adley Rutschman Selected by Orioles as No. 1 Overall Pick in 2019 MLB Draft
Jun 3, 2019
Omaha, NE - JUNE 28: Catcher Adley Rutschman #35 of the Oregon State Beavers singes in a run in the first inning against the Arkansas Razorbacks during game three of the College World Series Championship Series on June 28, 2018 at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
The 21-year-old smacked 17 home runs, knocked in 57 runners and slashed .418/.580/.764 for the Beavers.
That effort followed an excellent 2018 campaign in which Rutschman had nine homers, 83 RBI and a 1.133 OPS.
The 6'2", 216-pound catcher was ranked No. 1 on MLB.com's 2019 draft prospects lists entering Monday. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com wrote on January 30 that he would have put him 17th on the 2019 MLB minor-league prospect list if he was drafted in 2018.
The switch-hitting Rutschman has excellent power. Check out this opposite-field home run from the left side of the dish for example:
— Oregon State Baseball (@BeaverBaseball) April 7, 2019
FanGraphs, who ranked him No. 1 on its draft prospect list, noted Rutschman is an "excellent defensive catcher with current all-fields doubles power and tremendous feel for contact."
Rutschman joins an Orioles franchise that is in the process of a significant rebuild, one that was sorely needed after Baltimore went 51-111 in 2018.
The O's overhauled their front office and coaching staffs, and general manager Mike Elias now runs the show. He's tasked with rebuilding a farm system that Sam Dykstra of MILB.com ranked 23rd in the league entering this season.
Rutschman is clearly the crown jewel of the Orioles' farm system now, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a quick call-up given how well he's dominated the college ranks. Plus, the big-league club needs help, with the team just 18-41 this season.
Baltimore has much more work to do, but picking up a potential future face of the franchise is an excellent start.
2019 MLB Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions for Most Coveted Baseball Prospects
Jun 3, 2019
Omaha, NE - JUNE 27: Catcher Adley Rutschman #35 of the Oregon State Beavers celebrates after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning against the Arkansas Razorbacks during game two of the College World Series Championship Series on June 27, 2018 at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
The MLB draft, perhaps the most unique draft in professional sports, is set to begin Monday at 7 p.m. ET, with the Baltimore Orioles on the clock for the first overall pick.
Unlike the NFL and NBA, the MLB draft is held midseason and lasts 40 rounds. It consists of both college and high school prospects, with the latter often difficult to predict if they will sign or continue to refine their skills at the collegiate level.
Players are also immediately placed into the teams' farm systems and are usually at least two or more years away from reaching the majors.
The first MLB draft was implemented in 1965 in an effort to prevent wealthier teams, such as the New York Yankees and St. Louis Cardinals, from stockpiling young talent by offering them contracts, according to the Baseball Almanac. The draft was also divided into three drafts, too.
The first would occur in June for high school graduates and college seniors, while the second took place in January for high school and college players who graduated in the winter. There was a third held in August for players who participated in summer amateur leagues, but it lasted just two years.
The draft finally became just one in 1986.
2019 Mock Draft
1. Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Finding a franchise-changing catcher in the draft is one of the most difficult things to do. The Twins did it with Joe Mauer in 2001 and the Giants did it with Buster Posey in 2008, and the Orioles may just be able to do it with Rutschman in 2019.
The 22-year-old is a baseball unicorn—a switch-hitting catcher with power to all sides of the field:
Rutschmanhas put up monster numbers in his junior year, hitting a slash line of .417/.580/.765 with 17 home runs and 57 RBI. He has thrown out 13 of 26 baserunners in 55 games and even got the Barry Bonds treatment during the College World Series regional opening round, where he was intentionally walked with the bases loaded.
He could be a generational talent who would be impossible to pass up on, although the Orioles have said they have narrowed down their options to four prospects with the No. 1 pick, per Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville HS (TX)
Witt was the Gatorade National Player of the Year and comes from a baseball family.
His father was drafted third overall by the Texas Rangers in 1985 and pitched 16 seasons in the majors, while his uncle, Doug Witt, is a scout for the Orioles, signaling they could well choose the 18-year-old shortstop over Rutschman.
Like Rutschman, Witt is heading into the draft with tons of praise, none higher than from former MLB scout Ryan Nelson, who told The Athletic: "There's no doubt in my mind that whoever ends up drafting him, in five to seven years, he's going to be Mike Trout. He's going to be that guy that's just everywhere, like Derek Jeter."
Those are some high expectations to live up to, but by all indications from scouts, Witt is a potential five-tool shortstop:
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) May 24, 2019
He is committed to play at Oklahoma next year, but it is more likely he will be on the fast track to the majors in somebody's farm system, most likely the Royals.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California
Vaughn may well be the next-best prospect after Rutschman and Witt, although there are some concerns over him.
Perhaps the biggest question mark surrounds his height. The 21-year-old has been listed anywhere between 5'10" and 6'0", which is traditionally considered small for a first baseman. No right-handed hitting first baseman has been taken in the top-five of the draft, either.
But Vaughn could be the guy to break convention. He may be the best hitting prospect in the draft and his raw power is undeniable, hitting 50 home runs over three seasons at California:
He also has incredible plate discipline. He ranks third in the NCAA in on-base percentage this season at .549 and has a 23 percent walk rate, which has only been achieved by Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds since the 1994 MLB strike, according to Zach Kram of The Ringer.
If the White Sox don't select him at No. 3, any team he falls to would be snagging someone who has the potential to be an elite power hitter in the majors.
The MLB Cellar-Dwellers Making a Case for the Worst Pitching Staff Ever
May 27, 2019
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Dylan Bundy (37) is pulled from the game by manager Brandon Hyde, left, during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees, Thursday, May 23, 2019, in Baltimore. The Yankees won 6-5. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
Through two months, the 2019 Major League Baseball season is on track to make home run history. The 1.33 homers per game that have been hit so far is the highest rate of all time.
There are explanations aplenty for this, yet a shockingly significant one is the very existence of the Baltimore Orioles.
Orioles pitchers have already claimed a place in baseball history that they'd rather not have. When New York Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier went deep off David Hess at Oriole Park at Camden Yards last Tuesday, the fastest-ever journey to 100 home runs allowed was completed:
The Baltimore Orioles have allowed their 100th HR of the season in their 48th game; the previous MLB "record" for quickest to allow 100 HR in a season was 57 games by the 2000 Kansas City Royals.
Orioles pitchers have since allowed 14 more long balls to bring their total to 114. One only needs to refer to the 2015 Pittsburgh Pirates to find the last time a team didn't allow that many homers over an entire season.
Perhaps it's needless to say, but the Orioles pitching staff is indeed on track for a new single-season home run record. Its average of 2.1 allowed per game points to a final destination of 340 home runs. That would break the 2016 Cincinnati Reds' single-season record by...wait for it...82 home runs.
The bright side for the Orioles is that their 5.84 team ERA is only the worst of the 2019 season and not of all time. It is, however, the highest since the 1999 Colorado Rockies finished with a 6.03 ERA.
The Orioles are also suffering from an offense that ranks 12thin the American League in runs per game. Hence their 16-37 record, which puts them on pace for a second straight season of more than 110 losses. Clearly, this is a team that still has a long way to go with its rebuild.
In the meantime, let's narrow down the root causes of the worst case of homeritis in baseball history.
David Hess
In fairness to Orioles pitchers, some of the things fueling their home run rate are beyond their control.
This is an extreme home run era, after all, and the primary reasons for that include a ball that's almost certainly juiced and a new breed of hitter who's all about launch angle and exit velocity. To wit, the Orioles aren't the only 2019 team that features prominently on the list of highest-ever home run rates.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards isn't helping, either. It's a notorious launching pad, and it's thus far lived up to its reputation by allowing 64 of the Orioles' home runs.
A handful of those long balls wouldn't have made it out of, say, Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City:
The Orioles' early-season schedule also hasn't been of much help. They've played 18 games against the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees, who rank first and fifth in home runs, respectively, plus a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies at the ever-slugger-friendly Coors Field.
These 21 games comprise only 39 percent of Baltimore's season, yet they've yielded 58 percent (66) of the team's home run output.
Still, only so much blame can be placed on Orioles pitchers' circumstances. Take it from first-year manager Brandon Hyde, who marked his team's record-breaking march to 100 homers with brutal honesty.
"We're facing good teams, but you've got to pitch," Hyde said, per Nathan Ruizof the Baltimore Sun. "You've got to pitch here, stay off the barrel. You've got to be able to locate, and if you don't, in a hitters’ ballpark, against guys that mash, you're going to give up 100 homers 40-something games into it."
You do indeed "got to pitch." And the hard truth is that Orioles pitchers just aren't very good at that.
It's partially a stuff problem. Orioles pitchers are tied for 20th in average fastball velocity. They also rank 18th in average spin rate.
With that kind of modest action on their pitches, it's no surprise that only the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers are drawing swings-and-misses at a lower rate than the Orioles. Their 22nd-ranked ground-ball percentage also shows that batters have had an easy time elevating against them, and fly balls and line drives off Orioles pitchers have traveled at an MLB-high 95.1 mph.
Further, Hyde was on to something when he said "you've got to be able to locate." Orioles pitchers are among the worst at finding the strike zone. They've also been unable to trick hitters into chasing their pitches, as they have one of the lowest swing rates outside the zone.
Not so coincidentally, Orioles pitchers are throwing an MLB-high 30.4 percent of their pitches with the hitter ahead in the count. The price they've paid for that is an MLB-high 55 home runs allowed in such counts, the majority of which (35, to be exact) have come on pitches in the heart of the zone.
The plain-English version of all this is that Orioles pitchers are neither particularly overwhelming nor particularly crafty. Which should really surprise nobody, given who these pitchers are.
Dan Straily
On one hand, there are the veterans whom the Orioles are hoping to turn into trade chips. These include 30-somethings Andrew Cashner, Dan Straily and Alex Cobb. Though Cashner has had an OK year, the trio's collective rate of 2.8 homers per nine innings is solid proof that each is past his prime.
On the other hand are Baltimore's many 20-something pitchers, among whom is only one formerly elite talent (Dylan Bundy, who peaked as MLB.com's No. 2 prospect in 2013) and one of the team's current top talents (Branden Kline, whom MLB.com rates as the Orioles' No. 21 prospect).
Right-hander Shawn Armstrong and left-handers John Means and Paul Fry have done well for themselves, but that's about where the success stories run out. Bundy and Hess, in particular, have taken up a place on the opposite side of the spectrum with a combined 2.6 HR/9 rate.
Mercifully, there is hope on the horizon.
The Orioles already have some exciting pitching prospects in lefties DL Hall, Keegan Akin and Zac Lowther, as well as righties Grayson Rodriguez and Blaine Knight. More should enter the team's system via the draft and international market in the coming years. Overseeing everything is general manager Mike Elias, who came to the Orioles from a Houston Astros organization with a reputation for getting the most out of its pitchers.
For now, though, the Orioles pitching staff is a motley crew of guys who are either trying to hang on or simply get a grip. When combined with their extraordinary external circumstances, what you get is indeed a foolproof recipe for historic pitching futility.
All the Orioles can really do is wait it out. All their opponents can do, meanwhile, is line up at the bat rack.
Orioles' Andrew Cashner May Not Report If Traded; 'Wish I Had a No-Trade Clause'
May 25, 2019
Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Andrew Cashner said Friday he'd consider not reporting to his new team if moved before the July 31 MLB trade deadline.
Cashner told Dan Connolly of The Athletic he's grown to "hate" being in the rumor mill throughout his career and doesn't enjoy that "a lot of things are out of your control."
"I wish I had a no-trade clause," he said. "But it's all part of where you're at (in your career). And, I think, once something comes (on the trade front), I'll have to sit down with my family and decide what's best for me."
Cashner is a unique case.
The 32-year-old TCU product is off to a solid start this season with a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in 54.1 innings.
Yet, his two-year, $16 million contract includes a $10 million vesting option if he reaches 340 innings pitched between 2017 and 2018, perSpotrac. He needs to pitch 187 innings this year to reach that threshold, which is right in line with a standard complement of 31 or 32 starts.
That could actually be a concern for both Cashner, who's comfortable in Baltimore and could hit free agency if he doesn't hit 340 innings, and the acquiring team. Most clubs looking for rental players to fill a void don't want the financial burden of an extra year on a deal.
At the same time, the Orioles own the league's worst record at 15-36 and would probably prefer to get some type of future asset for the starter since he's unlikely to be around when their rebuild ends.
Cashner told Connolly he'll evaluate his options on a case-by-case basis leading up to the deadline.
"I'm not going to say that I wouldn't (go to a contender)," he said. "But I'm just going to say, 'We'll see where it goes.'"
It's unclear whether the O's will allow interested teams to speak with Cashner during trade talks, but opposing clubs would probably want some type of guarantee he'll report before giving up a prospect.
All told, the starter is clearly growing tired of a nomadic career that's landed him with four different teams since 2016, and it could impact his decision-making process over the next two months.
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