College Football Playoff Rankings 2022: Will the CFP Be Controversy-Free Again?
Sports are beloved for drama. By its very nature, the College Football Playoff rankings are built to draw out that tension.
For five weeks, there's an hour-long television show on Tuesdays dedicated to the destined-to-change. For five weeks, we react to that much-anticipated Top 25 and look ahead to the inevitable excitement. For five weeks, you're invested in what number is next to which team.
In eight past editions of the CFP, however, the final ranking—the order unveiled on Selection Day—has been predictable as soon as conference championships ended.
And we're exceptionally close to 2022 being more of the same.
As in 2021, top-ranked Georgia might already be a lock. There's a pretty convincing argument for No. 2 Michigan, too. If both TCU and USC win their respective conference title, that's No. 3 and No. 4. Every other program has at least two losses except for 11-1 Ohio State, which isn't considered a superior team by the committee today and can't possibly land that designation if TCU and USC have a league championship.
Will it really be that simple?
Ohio State is desperate for "nope!" to emerge as the answer. Incidentally, the Buckeyes have been on the right side of this Selection Day conversation a couple of times.
Sure, recent years have included shadows of debate. Back in 2014, Big Ten winner Ohio State vaulted one-loss Big 12 co-champs TCU and Baylor in the final rankings. There was disagreement, but Ohio State—the eventual champion—had a higher schedule strength, one more victory and an outright title. The true level of controversy was minimal.
Ohio State fell to Penn State in 2016 but boasted three Top 10 victories to atone for the loss, while Big Ten champion PSU dropped two games. Frustrating for Penn State, absolutely, yet entirely logical.
From there, any disagreement focused on Group of Five programs—2017 UCF, 2018 UCF and 2020 Cincinnati—not getting much respect. I, among many, despised that reality, but I begrudgingly understood it. Both 2019 and 2021 were straightforward years, too.
And so, we return to the 2022 stage.
More than anything, the question is about Ohio State's perception within the committee compared to TCU and USC. Georgia is likely safe ahead of OSU, and Michigan's head-to-head victory is a decisive edge.
The same cannot be said for the other two.
Let's say TCU falls to Kansas State. TCU would have eight victories over bowl-bound teams and two Top 25 wins compared to Ohio State's six and two, respectively.
Selection committee chair Boo Corrigan had mentioned OSU's lack of a need for TCU-like comebacks as reason for a higher ranking in previous weeks. If neither Ohio State nor TCU has a conference title, it wouldn't be stunning for Ohio State to regain a spot over TCU if K-State wins handily. And, hey, remember Kansas State roared out to 28-10 lead in the earlier matchup. That's not impossible.
As for USC, let's hypothesize that Utah topples the Trojans for a second time. A two-loss, non-champion not making it over a one-loss, non-champion would not be shocking, either.
You can disagree with the outcome, but as far as controversies go, that would be a mild one at most.
Barring an absurd final ranking—like Ohio State and Alabama making the field because both TCU and USC lose Saturday—the lone legitimate potential controversy involves a close TCU loss to K-State.
The simple version is Michigan smoked Ohio State in the second half of their matchup. This scenario is akin to 2018 Ohio State. Although the Buckeyes won the Big Ten, they lost by 29 points at a Purdue squad that lost six regular-season games. Oklahoma, the Big 12 champion and eventual fourth seed, only lost to Texas, a Top 10 team, on a last-second field goal.
For the sake of argument, say TCU falls on a late kick. Kansas State's three losses are all to Top 25 opponents, and the Wildcats have a top-15 scoring defense. That's hardly a damning result.
TCU boasts the nation's best strength of record, will hold a higher strength of schedule after Saturday, owns more quality wins and—as goofy as it may sound—would have a more competitive loss.
That's a very strong, compelling case for TCU.
Merely the "game control" factor, in which Ohio State currently ranks fourth to TCU's 13th, would be in the Buckeyes' favor. It's really hard to justify game control as an overwhelming argument in 2022's context.
Besides, if you do that, consider Alabama has trailed for exactly zero seconds this season, losing only on last-play scores to Tennessee and LSU. And you're not about to see good-faith arguments for 10-2 Bama.
At this point, your imagination may be spinning. This is admittedly a deep dive into hypotheticals.
But if Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC each win a conference title, imagination won't matter. If USC falls to Utah, there's precedent for an idle Ohio State to slide back into the Top Four. Comparing the ugliness level of a loss has decided CFP bids before this season, too.
Ohio State is hoping. TCU, though, has a prime opportunity to eliminate any potential arguments and ensure the Top Four, once again, has no controversy on Selection Day.
Ohio State's CJ Stroud Unsure If He'd Participate in Non-CFP Bowl After Michigan Loss
The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes fell to the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines 45-23 on Saturday, and now the team's College Football Playoff chances are in jeopardy.
If Ohio State isn't selected for the College Football Playoff, star quarterback C.J. Stroud said Saturday that he's unsure if he would participate in a non-CFP bowl game, per ESPN's Adam Rittenberg.
Georgia, Michigan and TCU are the only remaining undefeated teams in the Associated Press' Top 25 poll and are the front-runners for the CFP. Ohio State's loss put it with USC as one of the top five teams to post one loss this season.
It's no surprise Stroud is considering sitting out a non-CFP bowl game, as he is expected to be one of the top quarterbacks taken in the 2023 NFL draft. There would be no reason to risk an injury if the Buckeyes aren't competing for a national title.
Stroud entered Saturday's game as a Heisman contender, having completed 66.4 percent of his passes for 2,991 yards and 35 touchdowns against four interceptions in 11 games, in addition to rushing for 77 yards.
However, his performance against Michigan likely dropped him from being one of the top contenders. He completed 31 of 48 passes for 349 yards and two touchdowns against two interceptions in Saturday's loss.
Stroud had a far better 2021 campaign, completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 4,435 yards and 44 touchdowns against six interceptions in 12 games. It's a tough break to see him take a step backward this season, especially with the NFL draft this spring, but there's still little doubt he'll be a top pick, even if he loses the Heisman Trophy race.
USC quarterback Caleb Williams appears to be the front-runner for the Heisman, having completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 3,480 yards and 33 touchdowns against three interceptions in 11 games.
The Buckeyes finished the 2022 season with an 11-1 record, and now they'll have to wait for their CFP fate to be determined.
Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud Headline 2022 Walter Camp Player of the Year Semifinalists
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young and Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud are among the semifinalists for the 2022 Walter Camp Player of the Year Award.
Here's the full list for the Walter Camp Football Foundation's watch list:
- Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh, RB
- Will Anderson Jr., Alabama, LB
- Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia, QB
- Brock Bowers, Georgia, TE
- Chase Brown, Illinois, RB
- Zach Charbonnet, UCLA, RB
- Blake Corum, Michigan, RB
- Jayden Daniels, LSU, QB
- Max Duggan, TCU, QB
- Marvin Harrison Jr, Ohio State, WR
- Hendon Hooker, Tennessee, QB
- Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee, WR
- Drake Maye, North Carolina, QB
- Michael Mayer, Notre Dame, TE
- Bo Nix, Oregon, QB
- Michael Penix Jr., Washington, QB
- Bijan Robinson, Texas, RB
- Noah Sewell, Oregon, LB
- C.J. Stroud, Ohio State, QB
- Tuli Tuipulotu, USC, DL
- Caleb Williams, USC, QB
- Bryce Young, Alabama, QB
Young is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, but the Walter Camp Award wasn't among the accolades he collected in 2021. The Crimson Tide star was a finalist and lost out to Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III.
Young is probably sitting in pole position for the 2022 honor.
The junior has thrown for 2,443 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions while running for 157 yards and three scores. Beyond the raw numbers, he has elevated a Crimson Tide team that doesn't have the kind of talent advantage it has enjoyed in recent years.
At 8-2, Alabama is already out of the College Football Playoff race. Its record would undoubtedly be worse were it not for Young. His ability to turn something into nothing has been a saving grace at times.
Should Ohio State remain unbeaten, Stroud will be a strong candidate for college football's top individual awards, though.
The third-year quarterback is leading FBS in quarterback rating (188.2) while throwing for 2,750 yards, 34 touchdowns and four interceptions. That's despite the Buckeyes missing their best wide receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, for most of the season.
Ohio State has the largest margin of victory (31.2 points per game) in the country largely because its offense eventually overwhelms its opponents.
Penn State trailed OSU by just two points, 16-14, entering the fourth quarter on Oct. 29. The Buckeyes then dropped 28 points over the final 15 minutes and coasted to a double-digit victory. Stroud went 26-of-33 for 354 yards and one touchdown in that game.
Ohio State plays Maryland on Saturday and finishes with No. 3 Michigan on Nov. 26. Given the likely stakes of the Michigan game, Stroud could definitively tips the scales in his favor over Young and the rest of the field that day.