The 2021 MLB postseason is back to the 10-team format baseball fans are used to, rather than the expanded 16 squads in the season shortened by COVID-19 concerns in 2020...
Dodgers' Max Scherzer Becomes 19th Pitcher in MLB History with 3,000 Strikeouts
Sep 12, 2021
ST. LOUIS, MO - SEPTEMBER 6: Starting pitcher Max Scherzer #31 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinalsat Busch Stadium on September 6, 2021 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Michael B. Thomas /Getty Images)
Los Angeles Dodgers ace Max Scherzer became the 19th pitcher in MLB history to record 3,000 career strikeouts Sunday.
The moment Max Scherzer joined the 3,000 strikeout club 🙌
#Dodgers RHP Max Scherzer strikes out #Padres 1B Eric Hosmer with an 88-mph changeup in fifth inning to become the 19th player in MLB history with 3,000 career strikeouts.
The three-time Cy Young winner entered his home start against the San Diego Padres needing just six more K's to reach the mark. He got there by the fifth inning, striking out one in the first, three in second—an immaculate inning, no less—one in the third and one in the fifth, using 51 pitches total to hit the milestone. Eric Hosmer served as Scherzer's 3,000th victim.
Scherzer joins Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Gaylord Perry, Nolan Ryan, Tim Seaver, Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, Bert Blyleven, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander.
Over the duration of his 14-year-and-counting career, Scherzer recorded 1,610 strikeouts with the Washington Nationals, 1,081 with the Detroit Tigers, 240 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and 69 with the Dodgers.
He's gone over the 250-K mark in a season five times and exceeded 200 K's in nine consecutive seasons with the exception of 2020's pandemic-shortened campaign. The Missouri native still finished with 92 strikeouts in 67.1 innings.
Per MLB.com's Matt Kelly, Scherzer’s current career strikeout rate of 29.4 percent will be the highest in the 3,000-K club, besting Randy Johnson's 28.6 percent. Scherzer is also the second-fastest player to the 3,000-K mark, requiring just 404 appearances. Johnson still holds the record there with 362 appearances.
Already a surefire future Hall of Famer, Scherzer has added a membership to one of baseball's most exclusive clubs to a resume that includes eight All-Star appearances and a 2019 World Series title with the Nationals.
He may very well add another ring to his collection as the Dodgers look poised to make another deep postseason run this October. That's in part because of Scherzer's addition. Entering Sunday, the trade deadline pick-up has tossed 43 innings for Los Angeles with a 1.05 ERA and 0.767 WHIP.
Report: Dodgers' Trevor Bauer Expected to Remain on Leave for Rest of Season
Sep 10, 2021
FILE - In this June 28, 2021, file photo, Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Trevor Bauer throws against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning of a baseball game, in Los Angeles. A Los Angeles judge sided with Bauer on Thursday, Aug. 19, 2021, and denied a restraining order to a woman who said he choked her into unconsciousness and punched her repeatedly during two sexual encounters. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
Warning: This story contains graphic allegations of sexual assault.
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Trevor Bauer reportedly is expected to stay on administrative leave for the remainder of the 2021 season, including the playoffs.
Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the update Friday:
Trevor Bauer is expected to remain on administrative leave through the season and playoffs and not pitch for again this season. With things in a holding patter, time short and him understanding it’s better not to be a distraction for the Dodgers, he is prepared to wait til 2022.
Major League Baseball placed Bauer on leave in early July, and that leave has been extended eight times through Friday.
Jon Fetterhoff and Rachel Luba, Bauer's co-agents, released a statement on the decision:
"Today Mr. Bauer agreed to extend his administrative leave through the playoffs in a measure of good faith and in an effort to minimize any distraction to the Dodgers organization and his teammates. He continues to cooperate with the MLB investigation and refute the baseless allegations against him.
"Again, by definition administrative leave is neither a disciplinary action nor does it in any way reflect a finding in the league’s investigation."
Pasadena (California) police finished their investigation into sexual assault allegations against Bauer, and the case is now in the hands of the L.A. County District Attorney's Office, per ESPN's Alden Gonzalez.
Brittany Ghiroli and Katie Strang of The Athletic outlined the woman's accusations of sexual assault and intimate partner violence against Bauer. She made the allegations in an ex-parte filing requesting a restraining order against Bauer. The ex-parte restraining order was granted on June 28.
The woman said that two sexual encounters with Bauer in April and May included him "punching her in the face, vagina, and buttocks, sticking his fingers down her throat, and strangling her to the point where she lost consciousness multiple times," all without her prior consent. She also said that on one occasion Bauer "penetrated her anally" while unconscious.
The woman also stated that she suffered "two black eyes, a bloodied swollen lip, significant bruising and scratching to one side of her face" following the encounter in May.
Bauer has denied the accusations, and his agent, Jon Fetterolf, released a statement on the matter.
A message seeking comment from the woman's attorney from ESPN was not returned. He spoke with TMZ, whose report of the allegations is here: https://t.co/R5uBCeuMbx
Also, quick correction from previous tweet: Jon Fetterolf was identified in his statement as Trevor Bauer's agent.
Judge Dianna Gould-Saltman denied the woman's request for a permanent restraining order on Aug. 19, per Steve Henson and Ethan Sears of theLos Angeles Times.
Bauer is in his 10th MLB season and first with the Dodgers. He made 17 starts before being placed on leave.
From MVP to Liability: The Dodgers Have a Massive Cody Bellinger Problem
Sep 10, 2021
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 03: Cody Bellinger #35 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts walking back to the dugout after striking out to end the top of the seventh inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on September 03, 2021 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't where they want to be as the end of the 2021 season draws near, yet it is commendable that the reigning World Series champions are 35 games over .500 even though one of their four MVPs has become one of the worst players in baseball.
Sorry, Cody Bellinger. But there's no other way to put it.
It was only two years ago that the 26-year-old outfielder/first baseman was arguably the best player in Major League Baseball, much less the National League. His 2019 season saw him rack up a .305/.406/.629 batting line with 47 home runs and an NL-best 8.6 rWAR, all of which made him the easy choice for the NL MVP award.
His swing, which was already plenty sweet in his first two seasons with the Dodgers in 2017 and 2018, was never sweeter than in 2019:
In 2021, though, Bellinger isn't that guy anymore.
His minus-1.7 rWAR is third-worst among position players who've taken at least 300 plate appearances. On offense, specifically, he has only nine home runs and a .158/.232/.292 batting line that translates to a 42 OPS+. That's 66 points below league average and second-worst among that same field of players.
In spite of all this, Bellinger has started in 73 of the 82 games he's played this season. That partially speaks to the injury issues that the Dodgers have had in their outfield, but it also speaks to their fundamental dilemma with Bellinger.
Basically, just how impatient should they be with a guy who was one of baseball's brightest superstars so recently?
Is Bellinger Damaged Goods?
There's at least one extent to which Bellinger's struggles are understandable, in that he's almost certainly not 100 percent healthy.
Bellinger has had to go on the injured list twice this season, first with a broken leg in April and again with hamstring tightness in June. And this is after the left-handed swinger initially came into the season off surgery to repair a right shoulder that he dislocated more than once, including during the Dodgers' triumphant World Series run in 2020.
In contextualizing just how difficult it is for a hitter to fully recover from surgery to his lead shoulder, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pointed to the experiences of two notable former Dodgers when speaking to reporters (via Matt Borelli of DodgerBlue.com):
He’s grinding. He’s been grinding. It’s been a difficult time for him trying to perform at this level and still trying to get that front shoulder strength when you’re recovering from a surgery.
Dodger fans know, whether it’s Adrian Gonzalez having to go through that, Matt Kemp going through that same type of thing, that first year out is tough. Cody’s going through it.
If Bellinger's right shoulder is indeed not yet at full strength, that would explain why he hasn't been hitting the ball as hard. Though his average exit velocity of 89.4 mph doesn't mark a career low, the same isn't true of his 33.8 hard-hit percentage.
More specifically, his hard-hit rates have dropped off on his pull side and to the opposite field while more or less remaining steady up the middle:
This means Bellinger's power has effectively been cut off from the two sides of the field where the outfield fences are closest. His loss of power to right field is especially painful, as that's the area that accounts for 86 of his 132 career home runs.
The Dodgers might have anticipated Bellinger's surgically repaired shoulder being a problem early in the season after he was limited to 28 at-bats during spring training. But whereas they might have hoped that time would literally heal this particular wound, by now they ought to be past the point of having second thoughts.
This Is an Ongoing Decline
Bellinger's time with the Dodgers is already a tale of two careers, and the demarcation line between the good and the bad isn't where you probably think.
The good began with a 2017 season in which he won the NL Rookie of the Year on the strength of what was then a National League rookie record 39 home runs. He took a step back in 2018 but was still mostly good, as he hit .260/.343/.470 with 25 long balls. He then had an otherworldly first half in 2019, hitting .336/.432/.692 with 30 homers.
In the second half of '19, however, pitchers limited Bellinger to a good-not-great .263/.371/.546 slash line and 17 homers. A key approach involved throwing fastballs higher, going from an average height of 2.55 feet to 2.78 feet. Accordingly, his slugging percentage (see here and here) against fastballs fell by over 100 points.
The experience threw Bellinger for a loop, as Roberts told reporters in July 2020 that it was precisely because of the slugger's difficult second half that he went into the following season with a more compact swing.
Suffice it to say the changes didn't work. Though he had some moments in the playoffs—including a series-clinching home run in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series—Bellinger otherwise hit a modest .239/.333/.455 in the regular season.
So, he changed his swing mechanics again ahead of the 2021 season. This time, he was familiarly upright in the box but with more of an open stance:
Yet this change, too, is failing him. Bellinger is still seeing fastballs up in the zone, and his overall slugging percentage against the hard stuff has gone from an ugly .358 in 2020 to an even uglier .298 in 2021.
When said heat is over 95 mph, Bellinger's problems are that much worse:
From Statcast: Cody Bellinger is 4-for-45 (.089) w/ 0 HR, 24 SO, .133 SLG vs. 95+ mph pitches in 2021. That's the second-lowest SLG in MLB (min. 40 PA vs. 95+)
As much as anything, this problem stems from how Bellinger is having a hard time making contact against fastballs. His whiff rate against heaters has risen from 19.0 to 27.3 percent since 2019, mirroring the overall rise in his strikeout rate from 16.4 to 27.3 percent.
This makes it all too easy to wonder if Bellinger's compromised shoulder is only half the problem. The other half sure seems to be his swing. No matter the stance he uses, perhaps his next project should be cutting down on all his moving parts before he swings, and then shortening his swing itself. Right now, it's too long and therefore a poor match for fastballs.
So, What Are the Dodgers to Do with Bellinger?
L.A. doesn't have much choice but to keep running him out there as its starting center fielder. He's effectively the next man up until AJ Pollock recovers from a hamstring injury, which may not be until the end of the month.
Assuming Pollock does make it back by then, the best spot for Bellinger will be on the bench.
That might sound hot take-y, but this version of Bellinger has no place starting over Pollock or Chris Taylor, and certainly not Mookie Betts. The first two are having fine seasons, while the latter is playing more like his MVP-caliber self of 2018 and 2020 than he's gotten credit for.
If there's a bright side to benching Bellinger, it's that he could still be useful to the Dodgers as a pinch hitter and defensive replacement.
Of his nine home runs, eight have come against right-handed pitchers. He also hasn't needed a healthy right shoulder on defense, where he can still run down fly balls and unleash strong throws. To wit, his work in center field alone has been worth two outs above average in 2021.
Come the offseason, the Dodgers might feel an ever so slight temptation to non-tender Bellinger rather than go through arbitration and pay him a raise on the $16.1 million he's making this year.
However, the odds of that happening are probably less than 1 percent. Ultimately, cooler heads should prevail as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and the rest of the front office reason that, should Bellinger show up to 2022 fully healthy and with a properly revamped swing, he may well be an MVP again.
In the meantime, they'll just have to live with his lost season.
Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw: 'I Really Have No Idea' What Will Happen in Free Agency
Sep 8, 2021
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 03: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers standing on the field looking on during batting practice prior to the start of the game against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on September 03, 2021 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Clayton Kershaw has spent 14 years as a Los Angeles Dodgers icon. He's unclear if that will continue for a 15th and beyond.
The 33-year-old ace is finishing up a three-year, $93 million contract and will become an unrestricted free agent this offseason. He told reporters Wednesday he's not quite sure what to expect when that happens.
"I can honestly say I have no idea what's going to happen," Kershaw said. "I really have no idea. I'm excited to pitch for now. I'm excited to pitch in the playoffs again—which is something I don't want to take for granted."
In the short term, Kershaw is nearing a return from a forearm injury that's kept him sidelined since early July. Following the completion of a rehab stint that lasted just three innings with the Oklahoma City Dodgers, the veteran is headed back to Los Angeles where he'll rejoin a club prepping for the postseason.
#Dodgers Clayton Kershaw says he will start Monday. Said he joked with Austin Barnes that he had two months to get healthy, now he has five days to learn how to pitch again
It could be his last September as a Dodger depending on how the offseason goes.
Yet even much of those conversations are still out of his control. Both Kershaw and the Dodgers are likely to hold off on contract talks until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached. The current deal also expires at the end of the 2021 season. That could impact just how much money Los Angeles is willing to offer its lefty.
How much longer Kershaw wants to play remains a factor, too.
If this is his last run in L.A., Kershaw leaves behind a legacy alongside some of the best to ever wear the jersey. The three-time Cy Young Winner was named MVP in 2014. Won a Triple Crown in 2011 and finally helped deliver a World Series title in 2020. In between, he was named to eight All-Star teams and finished with the best ERA in baseball on five occasions.
Concession Workers at Giants' Oracle Park Vote to Strike over COVID-19 Safety
Sep 5, 2021
Facade of Oracle Park, a baseball park in San Francisco, California, November 19, 2020. (Photo by Smith Collection/Gado/Getty Images)
As the Major League Baseball season reaches the home stretch, concession staffers at the San Francisco Giants' Oracle Park could strike as a result of poor working conditions.
Citing the hazards that come with their jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic, 96.7 percent of the roughly 930 concession workers voted to authorize a strike Saturday. The Unite Here Local 2 union said at least 20 staffers have contracted COVID-19 since the stadium welcomed back fans this season.
“Last night I must’ve told 200 people to put a mask on, and it’s stressful because a lot of them just make fun of you and give you attitude. I’ve worked at Oracle Park for 22 years and at Candlestick for 10 before that. We deserve better.”
Concession workers say the Giants have failed to create a safe environment and have cited waning vigilance in checking fans' proof of vaccination or a negative test.
Workers were on the job Saturday night when the Giants hosted the Los Angeles Dodgers. The vote allows the employees to begin their strike at their discretion; however, it's unclear when staffers will begin in earnest.
Report: Trevor Bauer's Administrative Leave Extended Through Sept. 10
Sep 3, 2021
FILE - In this June 28, 2021, file photo, Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Trevor Bauer throws against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning of a baseball game, in Los Angeles. A Los Angeles judge sided with Bauer on Thursday, Aug. 19, 2021, and denied a restraining order to a woman who said he choked her into unconsciousness and punched her repeatedly during two sexual encounters. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have reportedly agreed to extend Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Trevor Bauer's paid administrative leave through at least Sept. 10, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
This marks the eighth time Bauer's administrative leave has been extended since he was first placed on leave in July.
The reigning National League Cy Young winner is under investigation by MLB for alleged sexual assault and intimate partner violence, while police in Pasadena, California, have sent their criminal investigation to the Los Angeles County District Attorney's office.
In mid-August, a California judge denied a request for a restraining order by a woman who had previously gained an ex-parte restraining order on June 28.
The woman says Bauer assaulted her on two instances in April and May. In the ex-parte documents obtained by Katie Strang and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, she said Bauer choked her unconscious with her own hair and penetrated her anally while she was unconscious. She said Bauer punched her multiple times, resulting in two black eyes, a swollen lip and facial bruising.
Bauer has repeatedly said he acted with the woman's consent both in public and legal proceedings.
MLB placed Bauer on administrative leave on July 2. The league's collective bargaining agreement requires joint approval from MLB and the MLBPA to extend the leave an additional seven days at a time, to which both sides agreed on multiple occasions pending the outcome of MLB's investigation.
It's unclear if or when Bauer could return to Los Angeles' rotation should he be reinstated. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reported in late July that "a majority of players do not want Bauer back under any circumstances."
That uncertainty was part of the reason the Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer from the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline, boosting a rotation that already featured Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias.
Either way, the Dodgers still have Bauer signed to a massive three-year, $102 million contract with two years remaining.
Dodgers' Trevor Bauer Reportedly Could Face MLB Suspension of at Least 1 Year
Aug 31, 2021
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 28: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium on June 28, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
Trevor Bauer could face a suspension of at least one year and his time in Major League Baseball could be over, a number of league sources interviewed by ESPN's Jeff Passan said.
In an article looking at MLB's options when it comes to Bauer, who remains on paid administrative leave, Passan spoke to more than two dozen "executives, owners, lawyers, players and others familiar with how the league's domestic violence policy operates" to see how the league may respond to Bauer once the pitcher's legal situation is resolved.
The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner is under investigation by MLB and California authorities for alleged sexual assault and intimate partner violence. In mid-August, a California judge denied a restraining order requested by a woman who had gained an ex-parte restraining order on June 28. A criminal case being investigated by the Pasadena, California, police into the matter was presented to the Los Angeles County District Attorney's office earlier this month.
"Regardless of whether Bauer is charged with a crime, sources around the sport told ESPN they expect the league to levy a significant suspension against the 30-year-old," Passan wrote. "Further, front-office officials question not just whether the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner will return to the field with the Dodgers but if any team in MLB will be willing to roster him after multiple women have accused him of abuse."
A suspension of at least one year and possibly two years was raised by sources who spoke to ESPN. "Almost everyone" Passan spoke to believes Bauer won't pitch for an MLB team again:
"Now, that could be prisoner-of-the-moment talk. Plenty of things can change. All it takes is one team to convince itself Bauer is worth the repercussions. Five players on major league rosters today were once suspended under the policy. Never is a long time.
"But the details of the allegations, Bauer's reputation as a difficult personality, teams' fear of public backlash and a climate in which allegations of sexual assault have far deeper repercussions than at any time before are like four walls converging on Bauer. As great of a pitcher as he may be, sources said they had a difficult time envisioning a path back into the good graces of the league and the team."
The woman told the court Bauer abused her on two instances in April and May. In the ex-parte documents obtained by Katie Strang and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, she said Bauer choked her until she was unconscious with her own hair and penetrated her anally while unconscious, all without her consent. Multiple punches from Bauer resulted in two black eyes, a swollen lip and facial bruising, she said.
Bauer has repeatedly said he acted with the woman's consent both in public and legal proceedings.
MLB placed Bauer on administrative leave on July 2. The league's collective bargaining agreement requires joint approval from MLB and the MLBPA to extend the leave an additional seven days at a time, which both sides have agreed to on seven occasions so far, pending the outcome of MLB's investigation.
It's unclear if or when Bauer could return to Los Angeles' rotation should he be reinstated. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reported in late July that "a majority of players do not want Bauer back under any circumstances." Passan expanded on that reporting Tuesday, noting there was "a distinct pocket of veterans on the team who didn't want Bauer anywhere near them again."
That uncertainty was part of the reason the Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer from the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline, boosting a rotation that already featured Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias.
The Dodgers signed Bauer to a massive three-year, $102 million contract last offseason.
Police Turn Trevor Bauer Assault Case over to DA; MLB Leave Extended
Aug 27, 2021
LOS ANGELES, CA - JUNE 28: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches during the game against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium on June 28, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers defeated the Giants 3-2. (Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Pasadena police have finished their investigation into sexual assault allegations against Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer and have turned over the case to the L.A. County District Attorney's Office, per ESPN's Alden Gonzalez.
The DA's Office will now decide whether or not to move forward with the sexual assault case against Bauer.
"The Pasadena Police Department presented the District Attorney's Office with an extensive amount of information resulting from an investigation that lasted more than three months, which means it might still be a while before Bauer learns if he will be criminally charged," wrote Gonzalez.
Jon Heymanof MLB Network first reported Bauer's leave from Major League Baseball has been extended by an additional seven days through Sept. 3. Bauer was first placed on leave in early July.
Per Brittany Ghiroli and Katie Strang of The Athletic, the woman who has accused Bauer says his actions included "punching her in the face, vagina, and buttocks, sticking his fingers down her throat, and strangling her to the point where she lost consciousness multiple times." The woman said both encounters began consensually but that Bauer committed acts that she did not agree to, including penetrating her anally.
The woman also said that she suffered "two black eyes, a bloodied swollen lip, significant bruising and scratching to one side of her face" following the second encounter.
Bauer's agent, Jon Fetterolf, maintained his client's innocence in a statement released in June.
A message seeking comment from the woman's attorney from ESPN was not returned. He spoke with TMZ, whose report of the allegations is here: https://t.co/R5uBCeuMbx
Also, quick correction from previous tweet: Jon Fetterolf was identified in his statement as Trevor Bauer's agent.
The woman was granted a temporary ex parte restraining order against Bauer on June 28, but Judge Dianna Gould-Saltman denied a request for a permanent restraining order on Aug. 19 following four days of testimony, per Steve Henson and Ethan Sears of the Los Angeles Times.
Bauer signed a three-year, $102 million contract with the Dodgers before the 2021 season. He's been in the big leagues for 10 seasons, playing with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland and the Cincinnati Reds before moving to L.A.
The right-hander made 17 starts for the Dodgers before going on leave.
Who Ya Got? Making the Case for Both the Giants and Dodgers to Win the NL West
Aug 25, 2021
The San Francisco Giants celebrate after a baseball game against the New York Mets Tuesday, Aug. 24, 2021, in New York. The Giants won 8-0. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
The Los Angeles Dodgers looked like they had a clear path to the 2021 World Series.
The Dodgers were loaded coming into the season. Historically good. The pitching staff boasted three Cy Young Award winners and an MVP. The lineup had a former AL MVP in Mookie Betts and a few preseason favorites to win the NL award this season.
This was a team built to win championships and contend for them each year. Sure, the upstart San Diego Padres posed a test to the defending champs, but it looked like nothing more than a burgeoning regional rivalry.
But then the San Francisco Giants seemingly came out of nowhere. The dynasty days were long gone, but the Dodgers' Bay Area rivals were ahead of schedule on their rebuild. Well ahead of schedule.
The Giants have occupied the top spot in the NL West nearly all season, but how firm is that grasp as the playoff race intensifies?
Here are the reasons the Giants will hang on to win the NL West and all of the reasons the Dodgers might overtake them. Any prediction I make will likely be wrong because that's how it goes when you try to predict races this close (the Dodgers are 2.5 games behind the Giants), so let's just lay out all of the arguments.
Why the Giants will win the NL West
If I had told you before the season began the Giants would lead the league in home runs, would you have believed me? I'm not sure I would have believed it. But San Francisco's 191 homers are the most in the league despite no one in the lineup having even hit 20 until Tuesday night when Mike Yastrzemski hit his 20th in the Giants' 8-0 thrashing of the New York Mets on the road. The Brandons—Crawford and Belt—are both sitting at 19, with Belt hitting two against the Mets hours after learning his grandmother had died.
Kris Bryant has 22 on the season, but 18 of them came with the Chicago Cubs.
Last season, the rebuilding Giants hit 81, which tied the Boston Red Sox for 12th in the league.
San Francisco took strides in the rebuild last year and nearly ended up in the NL Wild Card series, but the team's offensive production didn't inspire a ton of confidence. This season, however, the balance and depth of the lineup is obvious.
Bryant has also been a boost to the middle of the order. He hasn't missed a beat since coming over from Chicago to replace the injured Evan Longoria, slashing .274/.329/.507 with an .836 OPS in 19 games.
The lineup has proved it can do damage regardless of which pitcher is staring them down from the mound. Which is good, considering they could end up facing Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler in the postseason.
But the Giants can go pitch-for-pitch with the Dodgers. Los Angeles owns the best ERA and joint-best WHIP in the major leagues. San Francisco owns the second-best ERA and joint-best WHIP. The Giants lack star power on the mound, but the way they've been able to turn Kevin Gausman (12-5, 2.47 ERA) into an ace and Jake McGee (28 saves, tied for third in MLB) into a stalwart closer has been remarkable.
Advanced metrics don't buy into the Giants defense (FanGraphs lists them as No. 18, though their 40 runs saved are the ninth-most in MLB), but San Francisco plays clean baseball and rarely makes errors.
This is an experienced team that knows how to win, however, they also doesn't make a whole lot of sense on paper. Both things can be true. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and general manager Scott Harris should be commended for mining underrated talent and manager Gabe Kapler for knowing how and when to use that talent.
Wilmer Flores has always played well against left-handed pitching, but his good numbers against right-handers this season have made him an excellent bench piece. Tommy La Stella has hit .316 with runners in scoring position this season. Left-handed reliever Jarlin Garcia has turned into a key bullpen piece.
The whole is greater than the sum with this Giants squad, which is why they may be able to stave off the Dodgers and win the NL East.
Why they won't win the NL West
It's a bunch of old guys who make little sense on paper. The average age of the Giants is 30.7 years old. Can these veterans hold up in September?
La Stella, who is hitting all of .250, is their best bench piece? McGee only throws one pitch, come on! This roster just isn't as strong as the Dodgers' roster. The Giants still have to face the Atlanta Braves twice, Milwaukee once and have one last series with the Dodgers, so it's an uphill climb to finish the season.
Sometimes baseball makes no sense, but sometimes it does and the team that is built to win overtakes the scrappy underdogs.
Why the Dodgers will win the NL West
FanGraphs gives the Dodgers a 62.3 percent chance of winning the division. They reeled off nine straight wins in August and made it look easy. Six of those victories were against the rapidly falling Mets, but they were important wins against a team that refuses to go down without a fight.
The Dodgers have All-Stars at nearly every position. They have Albert Pujols in his twilight years still contributing in a reserve role. But it's not about the name recognition of the team, it's how those names are performing that really matters.
The biggest win by the Dodgers came at the trade deadline, when the front office acquired Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner in a blockbuster deadline deal, effectively preventing the Padres from acquiring the two.
The Dodgers are 12-2 in games when Turner starts in the infield, as MLB reporter Molly Knight pointed out. Since being traded from the Washington Nationals, he's slashed .323/.358/.484 with a .842 OPS. Even if the career shortstop's defense has been questionable at second base, he gets on base, runs the bases well and produces runs.
Corey Seager missed time with a fractured hand. Cody Bellinger missed significant time with a broken leg and a hamstring strain. Kershaw and Betts are on the injured list. It doesn't matter as much as it would with other franchises—this team has overwhelming depth at positions 1-9, which is how they've been able to keep the race with the Giants tight.
The bullpen is full of versatile pieces such as David Price and Phil Bickford. Bullpen games can help take some pressure off the starters during this crucial stretch, showing just one of the ways this team can win.
The defense might be the only weakness, if you want to call it that. FanGraphs ranks Los Angeles at 27th. Seager and Turner have made some mistakes up the middle, but the outfield took away two runs from the Padres on Tuesday night in a crucial series-opening win.
The Dodgers could find another gear and overtake the Giants to win the division.
Why they won't win the NL West
Kenley Jansen may have locked it down against the Padres Tuesday night, but he has been somewhat unreliable this season. Reliever Blake Treinen has been used in several different high-leverage spots this season, and he appears to be the favorite over Jansen. A lack of stability in the bullpen might not be a huge flaw, but in a tight race like this, every flaw gets exposed.
My take
These two teams play over Labor Day weekend at Oracle Park. This will be an intense series. Great teams find ways to win when it matters the most, so whoever wins this series will probably win the division. The Giants may not have the household names, but they might get a little more recognition when they stave off the Dodgers to win the division.
