San Francisco 49ers

After months of trade rumors and speculation, Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield could both end up becoming free agents before the start of the season.

Per ESPN's Dan Graziano, a straw poll of various NFL executives, coaches and agents found a majority of them believe Garoppolo and Mayfield will be released by their respective teams.

Garoppolo's situation is more complicated than Mayfield's right now because of his injury status. The 30-year-old is still recovering from shoulder surgery he had in March.

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters on Tuesday that Garoppolo, who was excused from the team's mandatory minicamp this week, is on target to be medically cleared in July.

There hasn't been any trade speculation around Garoppolo in months. Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer reported in May that both Garoppolo and the 49ers "are willing to be flexible" regarding his contract to help facilitate a deal.

"And that means, if a team’s out there wanting to renegotiate the final year of his contract, which has $24.8 million on it (and is not guaranteed), as part of a trade, the opportunity’s there to do it, and other teams know it," Breer wrote.

Mayfield also had surgery in January to repair a torn labrum. His estimated recovery time was four to six months, with the Cleveland Browns expecting him to be fully recovered by the start of training camp.

The Browns announced on Wednesday that Mayfield was excused from mandatory minicamp next week, calling it a "mutual decision and best for both parties."

Mayfield told ESPN's Adam Schefter on March 17 he formally requested a trade from the Browns. At the time, the team wasn't prepared to grant his request.

Cleveland's subsequent acquisition of Deshaun Watson in a trade with the Houston Texans and signing Jacoby Brissett to be the backup has certainly altered the organization's approach with Mayfield.

Per ESPN's Jake Trotter, the Browns and Carolina Panthers discussed a Mayfield trade during Day 2 of the NFL draft. A deal "never got close" because the Browns balked at Carolina's request that they pick up the majority of Mayfield's $18.9 million salary for 2022.

The Panthers wound up trading up in the third round to select Mississippi quarterback Matt Corral. They also have Sam Darnold on the roster.

According to Graziano, the Panthers were the most popular destination for Garoppolo among the NFL people he spoke to.

The Seattle Seahawks, who have frequently been linked to Mayfield throughout the offseason, were the most popular landing spot for the former No. 1 overall pick if he is released.

Training camp is the next major event on the NFL calendar in late July. Garoppolo and Mayfield should expect a resolution to their situations around that point.

It's not that often that as the calendar turns to June that a pair of experienced veteran quarterbacks who have each started at least 45 games and won a playoff game are both stuck in NFL limbo.

But this hasn't been a typical offseason—especially at the quarterback position.

Mandatory minicamps are firing up across the league, but you won't see Jimmy Gaproppolo of the San Francisco 49ers or Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns on the field when they do. Both quarterbacks have been excused from workouts, with ESPN's Nick Wagoner reporting that Garoppolo will sit while Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk wrote that Mayfield will sit out. Odds are good that neither quarterback will ever take a snap again for their respective teams.

It's a remarkable fall from grace for both quarterbacks. Garoppolo was the starter under center for the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV and led San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game last season. Mayfield was the first overall pick in 2018 and guided the Browns to the franchise's first postseason victory in well over two decades in 2020.

There's been plenty written about how the two quarterbacks got to this unfortunate position. But at this point, the more pressing question is where they go from here.

What is the best-case scenario is for their futures moving forward? What's the worst? And which quarterback is the better investment?

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Baker Mayfield

What a difference a year makes.

One year ago at this time. Mayfield was a star in the making. The Browns had won 11 games and trounced the Steelers in the Wild Card round. Mayfield had thrown for over 3,500 yards with 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. A massive extension seemed a foregone conclusion. The future was now.

But the Browns didn't extend Mayfield. And then the bottom fell out. Mayfield played most of the season with a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and his production plummeted. Mayfield's numbers dropped across the board. His turnovers went up. And the Browns missed the playoffs.

Once the season ended, things went from bad to worse. Cleveland's courtship of Deshaun Watson didn't sit well with Mayfield, so much so that he penned a goodbye letter to fans of the team. That led an unnamed source to tell ESPN's Chris Mortensen (per Dan Lyons of Sports Illustrated) that the Browns wanted an "adult" at the position. The team finally did land Watson, but even if they hadn't, the relationship appeared to be irretrievably fractured.

There are several reasons why the Browns haven't been able to find a trade partner for Mayfield. The most obvious is that in two of Mayfield's four seasons, the 27-year-old hasn't played especially well. Yes, injuries played a part in last year's struggles. But Mayfield also made some bafflingly poor decisions with the football.

Then there's the matter of Mayfield's contract. Entering the final year of his rookie deal, he carries a 2022 salary of $18.9 million. That's a lot of money to play a player who is coming off a rough season and is one game under .500 as a starter with a career passer rating under 90. Mayfield also didn't do himself any favors with his public grousing about the pursuit of Watson—grousing that only served to reinforce the assertion in some circles that Mayfield is immature.

There's also the matter of Cleveland's lack of leverage in negotiations. The rest of the league knows that Mayfield is a lame duck quarterback who doesn't want to be on a team that doesn't want him. Per Jonathan Alexander of the Charlotte Observer, the Panthers discussed acquiring Mayfield back in April—but only if Cleveland paid the majority of his salary.

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Best Case

The best-case outcome for Mayfield is an exceedingly unlikely one. With Watson staring at a potentially lengthy personal conduct suspension as the result of two dozen civil suits by women alleging sexual assault or misconduct during massage therapy sessions, the Browns could be headed into the season with only journeyman Jacoby Brissett and Joshua Dobbs under center. Say what you will about Mayfield, but he's an upgrade over them.

If both sides were willing to put aside hard feelings and work together, the Browns could get a quarterback to steer the team through Watson's suspension. Mayfield would get the best opportunity to rehab his stock before hitting free agency.

But that's not going to happen.

Outside that fairy tale, Mayfield's best chance at turning his career around in 2022 likely depends on a team suffering an injury under center, a la Teddy Bridgewater in Minnesota back in 2016. The Panthers and Seattle Seahawks don't appear to be interested in him, and the rest of the league is settled at quarterback, at least in the short term.

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Worst Case

Unfortunately, the worst case for Mayfield is considerably more likely than the best. The Browns have reportedly indicated that they have no intention of releasing him, which is understandable—with his 2022 salary guaranteed, the Browns would essentially be paying Mayfield to play somewhere else.

With no real trade market for his services, it's possible that Mayfield could remain in limbo for the entire season. He'd hit free agency after sitting out an entire year following arguably the worst season of his professional career. That would all but certainly force him to take a modest, short-term deal in 2023—most likely as a backup.

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Jimmy Garoppolo

Like Baker Mayfield, Jimmy Garoppolo found himself on the wrong end of his team looking to upgrade at the NFL's most important position. But that's just about the only similarity between the two situations.

The Niners mortgaged their future a year ago to draft Garoppolo's replacement, trading three first-round picks and a third-rounder for the right to move up to No. 3 overall and select Trey Lance. But rather than pen a goodbye missive to fans, Garoppolo got to work. In 15 starts, Garoppolo completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,810 yards and 20 touchdowns while taking the team within a game of their second Super Bowl in three years.

Garoppolo had shoulder surgery back in March, and as Legwold reported, head coach Kyle Shanahan indicated that Garoppolo's rehab is why he won't be at minicamp—and also why he's still on the roster.

"Nothing's changed since the surgery, we knew where we were at before that, and then he got the surgery, so everything went on hold," Shanahan said. "I expect him at some time, most likely to be traded, but who knows. It's not a guarantee and it's been exactly on hold when that happened. And when he is healthy, we'll see what happens."

The 30-year-old Garoppolo isn't a worldbeater under center—he has just two 3,000-yard seasons in eight years in the league, he's tossed double-digit interceptions in two of the last three years and he has played in more than six games only twice. But he has completed over 67 percent of his passes for his career, has a career passer rating of 98.9 and most importantly he wins games—31 of his 45 starts in San Francisco.

Given Garoppolo's durability concerns, it's not surprising that the trade market for his services has been cool. Teams want at least some semblance of assurance that he's healthy before investing draft capital and taking on Garoppolo's $24.2 million base salary.

The problem for both player and team is that while Garoppolo has been rehabbing his shoulder, the market for his services has dried up significantly.

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Best Case

The best case for Garoppolo also isn't especially likely, although it's more likely than Mayfield's

As was already mentioned, Shanahan said that it's not guaranteed the 49ers would deal Garoppolo. And if that's the case, then the best thing that could happen for Garoppolo is staying put.

There is also no guarantee that Lance is ready to take the reins of the offense for a team that fashions itself a Super Bowl contender. And if Lance isn't ready and/or San Francisco can't get the deal they desire, Garoppolo's best chances of success lie with the team where he's familiar with the offense and has a higher winning percentage as the starter than Aaron Rodgers does in Green Bay.

Then, after one more season as San Francisco's starting quarterback, Garoppolo could hit free agency in 2023 with a much better chance of landing one more sizable contract.

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Worst Case

There really isn't necessarily a "worst case" with Garoppolo—at least not one that's nearly as bad as Mayfield's.

With that said, there are situations that don't exactly set Garoppolo up for success—and they are with two of the more likely landing spots for him.

The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks each have some firepower on offense, whether it's Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in Seattle or D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey in Charlotte. There's also no disputing that Garoppolo would be an upgrade over the Drew Lock/Geno Smith morass in the Emerald City and Sam Darnold in Carolina.

But while Garoppolo would be better, he's not the kind of quarterback who can single-handedly lift up a franchise—and the Seahawks and Panthers are deeply flawed teams. Carolina and Seattle won just two more games combined than San Francisco in 2021.

Garoppolo's next contract will depend largely on his success (or lack thereof) in 2022. Leading a bad team isn't going to help his chances.

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Who's 'The Guy?'

This is a question without a blanket answer. Which signal-caller is the better investment depends largely on the situation a team finds itself in.

For a rebuilding team like the Seahawks, Panthers or New York Giants, Mayfield is the better call. It's not a matter of a lower salary, although that's certainly a consideration. In a rebuild, the future is nearly as important as the present. And not only is Mayfield several years younger than Garoppolo, but if he can recapture his 2020 form, he has the higher ceiling.

However, as a temporary fill-in for an injured starter, a bridge to a rookie or even a stand-in during a potential Watson suspension, Garoppolo is the way to go. He's a more proven, consistent option than Mayfield. He may have a lower ceiling, but he has a higher floor. And as he showed last year in San Francisco, he's a pro's pro. Also, if the Niners do wind up releasing Garoppolo outright, he could be available at a reasonable cost cap-wise.

If it's safety and stability your team seeks, Garoppolo is your man. But if you're willing to gamble a little to chase potential upside, take Mayfield...

And hope he wakes up feeling dangerous.

San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa is eligible for a potential big-money contract extension, but that's not on his mind at the moment.

Bosa told reporters that he's not sure when contract negotiations will begin, but for now he's concentrating on what he does on the field.

"I've just been focusing on getting better," Bosa said. "I'll let my agent worry about that."

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said Tuesday that the team hasn't started contract talks with Bosa, but he doesn't believe it will have any effect on the star pass-rusher's future with the team.

"I’m not too concerned with it," Shanahan said. "I fully expect Nick Bosa being here for a very long time."

Per Spotrac, Bosa is set to count for a $10.8 million salary-cap hit this season. San Francisco already exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie deal, which would pay him $17.86 million in 2023.

The No. 2 overall pick in 2019, Bosa is already one of the best defensive ends in the league. He ranked fourth in the NFL with 15.5 sacks last season to go with 52 total tackles and four forced fumbles. It was a stellar bounce-back year for him after he was forced to miss the majority of the 2020 season because of a torn ACL.

While San Francisco surely would like to keep Bosa in the fold for years to come, the fifth-year option gives the team a bit of security. More pressing for the 49ers is the status of disgruntled wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who requested to be traded over unhappiness with his contract.

Shanahan didn't comment on negotiations with Samuel on Tuesday, but he expressed confidence in the relationship between the team and its star wideout.

"I’m not going to get into that and you guys can ask Deebo to speak for himself on that," Shanahan said. "But love our relationship with Deebo and hopefully that’ll help us be able to solve this contractually before we get to the season."

While most of the focus for the San Francisco 49ers offseason has revolved around Deebo Samuel's contract, two-time Pro Bowler Nick Bosa is also eligible to sign a new deal with the team.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said talks with Bosa's representatives have yet to begin.

"Not too concerned about that," Shanahan noted. "Fully expect Bosa to be here for a very long time."

There have been a lot of questions surrounding the 49ers since their season ended with a loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game.

The status of Jimmy Garoppolo has been the biggest talking point. He was expected to be traded at some point early in the offseason, but shoulder surgery has delayed the process.

ESPN's Nick Wagoner reported last month the 49ers will start to seek trade partners for Garoppolo when he gets fully cleared, which is expected to happen in late June or early July.

Garoppolo's status has significant cap implications for San Francisco. The 30-year-old quarterback has a $26.95 million cap hit on the books. The 49ers currently have just over $4 million in cap space available.

Trading or releasing Garoppolo will create $25.55 million in cap space for the team.

General manager John Lynch told reporters in February that extensions for Deebo Samuel and Bosa have been "budgeted for."

Things did change significantly for the wide-receiver market this offseason. Davante Adams (five years, $140 million), Tyreek Hill (four years, $120 million), A.J. Brown (four years, $100 million) and Stefon Diggs (four years, $96 million) all signed lucrative new deals.

Samuel is coming off the best season of his career with 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns.

There will likely be more urgency from the 49ers to get Samuel's deal done before talking to Bosa. Samuel is entering the final season of his rookie contract.

Bosa still has two years remaining on his rookie deal, including the fifth-year option in 2023. The 24-year-old tied for the NFL lead with 21 tackles for loss and ranked fourth with 15.5 sacks in 17 starts last season.

John Lynch had an opportunity to join Amazon's Thursday Night Football crew for the upcoming season, but he elected to stay on as general manager of the San Francisco 49ers.

Speaking at an event in Walnut Creek, California (h/t Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area), Lynch said he made the decision to remain with the Niners following their loss in the NFC Championship Game.

"Kyle (Shanahan) asked me to address the team, and that’s when the clarity really came to me because I didn’t know (what was going to do)," he explained. "I wasn’t going to address it (the job offer) until after the season. ... I looked at myself and said, ‘How do I sit up here and address these guys and talk about having the fortitude to fight through the pain of losing a game like this and then turn around and bolt on them?’ I couldn’t do it. I knew right then what I was going to do. I’m happy to be a part of the Niners."

In February, Andrew Marchand of the New York Post reported Lynch had a dinner with Amazon executives to gauge his interest in returning to the broadcast booth.

Marchand noted Lynch "probably" could have tripled his salary with the 49ers (around $5 million per season) if he took a deal with Amazon.

Lynch's current deal with San Francisco runs through the 2024 season.

Amazon announced in March that Al Michaels will serve as the play-by-play announcer for Thursday Night Football, with Kirk Herbstreit coming over from ESPN to serve as the color commentator.

Pro Football Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez is also going to work with the broadcast team, providing coverage during the pregame, halftime and postgame shows.

After retiring from the NFL following the 2007 season, Lynch was hired by Fox to work as a color commentator. He was partnered with Chris Rose and Kevin Burkhardt for nine seasons from 2008 to '16.

Lynch and Shanahan came to the 49ers in the same offseason after the 2016 season. The duo has led the franchise to two NFC Championship Game appearances in the past three seasons.

As 49ers general manager, Lynch has been responsible for drafting star players George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.

Deebo Samuel may be reporting to mandatory minicamp, but his trade request still stands.

Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reported the situation between Samuel and the San Francisco 49ers "has remained mostly status quo in recent weeks." The All-Pro wideout still wants out, and there has been no progress in contract extension or trade talks.

The 49ers have maintained they have no interest in trading Samuel. Several notable wide receivers, including Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown and Davante Adams, have been traded this offseason amid stalled contract talks with their previous team.

"There's certain things that people got to go through," coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters last month. "There's certain things everyone is trying to get and trying to do, and you see what you can and you work from there. You can work out anything. Hopefully, when this is all said and done, we'll get the best thing for the Niners, best thing for Deebo, and hopefully that's the same thing because we'd love to keep going how we've been. But we know that's in front of us right now."

Samuel has not publicly stated why he wants to be traded, though rumors have persisted about displeasure with his role in the offense. The 49ers regularly used Samuel as a running back in the second half of last season—so much so that he wound up getting more touches out of the backfield than as a pass-catcher as the year progressed. In San Francisco's three playoff games, Samuel had 27 carries and only made 10 receptions.

While that role allowed Samuel to reach his potential as one of the NFL's foremost offensive playmakers, it also came with significant wear-and-tear. Running backs tend to age out of the league and get paid far less money than traditional wide receivers. It's possible Samuel saw his role as something that could shorten his NFL livelihood.

As frustrated as Samuel may be, it appears he's at least going to fulfill his contractual obligations to the 49ers for the time being.

Disgruntled wide receiver Deebo Samuel is expected to attend San Francisco 49ers minicamp Tuesday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.

Samuel reportedly requested a trade in April prior to the 2022 NFL draft, but the 49ers have kept him in hopes of working things out.

If he is unable to force a trade, a new contract may be at the top of his wish list, as he is set to hit free agency at the conclusion of the 2022 season.

The 26-year-old is in line for a huge raise after what he accomplished last season.

Samuel was named both a Pro Bowler and first-team All-Pro for the first time after racking up 77 receptions for 1,405 yards and six touchdowns, as well as rushing for 365 yards and eight scores.

The 2019 second-round pick essentially did it all for the Niners last season and played a massive role in their surprising run to the NFC Championship Game.

While Samuel was highly effective as both a receiver and a runner, Rapoport reported that his desire to be traded stemmed more from his usage than money.

Samuel carried the ball 59 times last season in addition to his 77 receptions, putting him at greater risk of injury than any other receiver in the NFL.

One thing that could allay those concerns, aside from a trade or a drastic change in the way he is utilized, is a fat new contract.

If Samuel is paid like one of the top wideouts in the NFL with plenty of guaranteed money, he won't have to worry that an injury will derail his chances of a sizable deal.

Attending minicamp after he skipped voluntary OTAs suggests he is open to talking with the 49ers about a new contract and playing for the team during the 2022 season.

As of now, Samuel's options for 2022 include signing a new deal and playing under that contract, playing out the one year remaining on his deal or holding out for all or part of the season.

A trade doesn't seem to be in the cards. 49ers general manager John Lynch said last week that he would be a "fool" to trade Samuel and isn't going to do so.

It is highly unlikely that the 49ers would have reached the NFC Championship Game or even made the playoffs last season without Samuel, which gives him plenty of bargaining power.

Given that second-year quarterback Trey Lance is likely to take over as the starter this season, the Niners need Samuel's dynamic skill set in the lineup.

The San Francisco 49ers have excused the absence of veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo from the team's minicamp this week, according to Tom Pelissero of NFL.com.

Per that report, "Garoppolo has been rehabbing from shoulder surgery away from the facility as San Francisco explores trade options, and that will continue."

The news doesn't come as a major surprise. The Niners have openly talked about transitioning to Trey Lance as the starter and the possibility of trading Garoppolo this offseason.

"That's why we looked into trading Jimmy, because we obviously believe that Trey can be a starter and we're ready to do that," head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters in late March.

"We brought Trey here to be that eventually, and I think that will be sooner than later, but when Jimmy gets his surgery and we can't upgrade our team by getting some good picks until people feel good about that [surgery], I'm all right with that," he added.

And general manager John Lynch told reporters in May that the team was "close in some discussions" to dealing Garoppolo, but the veteran quarterback elected to have offseason shoulder surgery, halting those talks.

"Once he starts throwing and stuff people will be more comfortable," Lynch added. "Then obviously, you've got to let things play out for other teams and part of that was the draft. And just like we're doing, everyone goes, 'OK, we just had the draft,' then you go back and re-evaluate the roster and see where you're at and obviously throughout the offseason and into training camp injuries can happen as well."

So a Garoppolo deal is all but inevitable, even if it isn't imminent. But as the summer rolls on and teams have a chance to evaluate their quarterback rooms and decide whether they need an upgrade—and Garoppolo recovers from his surgery—trade talks should ramp up again.

The 30-year-old was solid if unspectacular for the Niners in 2021, throwing for 3,810 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 15 games while completing 68.3 percent of his passes.

But he played poorly in the postseason, throwing for 535 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions while completing just 58.1 percent of his passes. The Niners reached the NFC Championship Game but fell to the eventual-champion Los Angeles Rams.

The knock against Jimmy G has always been that he's a solid game-manager but can't take a contender over the top. The Niners appeared to agree with that sentiment ahead of the 2021 season when they traded the No. 12 overall pick, first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 and a 2022 third-round compensatory selection to the Miami Dolphins to move up to No. 3 where they selected Lance.

While the rookie learned behind Garoppolo last season, teams don't make that level of splash to keep a player sidelined for long. Lance was always going to be given every opportunity to win the starting gig, and Garoppolo—a player in his prime who has played in a Super Bowl and an NFC Championship Game for the Niners—was never going to be happy as a backup.

The Carolina Panthers are considered a potential landing spot for Jimmy Garoppolo in a trade, but Joseph Person of The Athletic reported "there are concerns within the Panthers organization about the health of Garoppolo's throwing shoulder after surgery in March."

The San Francisco 49ers quarterback underwent surgery on March 8 for an injury he suffered in the NFC Championship Game. He said in April that he was targeting a return in training camp from his offseason surgery, per Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press.

San Francisco has not been shy about Garoppolo's trade availability, with general manager John Lynch saying in May the team was "close" to a deal before the surgery "brought things to a screeching halt."

The 49ers will want to deal Garoppolo before next season because of his $26.95 million cap hit, which would leave just $1.4 million of dead cap if he is traded or released, per Spotrac.

Carolina also needs a proven option at quarterback after a disappointing year from Sam Darnold.

The former New York Jet didn't fare much better after his trade to the Panthers, finishing 2021 with nine passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions and a 71.9 quarterback rating in 12 games.

Third-round pick Matt Corral could be the quarterback of the future for Carolina, but he would be difficult to trust early in the season.

Assuming he's healthy, Garoppolo would represent an upgrade after tallying a 98.7 quarterback rating in 2021, throwing 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions in 15 starts. The 49ers are 31-14 in the regular season and 4-2 in the postseason when the 30-year-old starts.