Matt Ryan

The race to get near the top of the 2021 NFL draft's board to select a quarterback started with the San Francisco 49ers and should end with the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots or Washington Football Team. 

The first three selections are on lock. 

Clemson's Trevor Lawrence is the presumptive No. 1 overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The New York Jets traded Sam Darnold to the Carolina Panthers Monday for 2021 sixth- and 2022 second- and fourth-round draft picks, signaling that they will draft a quarterback, like BYU's Zach Wilson, with the second overall selection. The San Francisco 49ers gave up the 12th pick and two future first-round picks to move up nine spots for the opportunity to choose between Ohio State's Justin Fields, North Dakota State's Trey Lance and Alabama's Mac Jones. 

With those picks basically settled, the draft now starts at No. 4, where the Atlanta Falcons reside. 

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Falcons have received trade calls from suitors and "are open" to trading out of the slot. Internally, Atlanta doesn't seem to be decided whether it should move ahead with soon-to-be 36-year-old quarterback Matt Ryan.

"What I'm hearing is that [general manager Terry] Fontenot is more focused on quarterback, and [head coach] Arthur Smith believes that Matt Ryan does have two or more years left," ESPN's Chris Mortensen said (h/t SB Nation's Evan Birchfield). 

If the Falcons stand pat, a quarterback is a logical choice. However, an exciting offer could get the franchise to move off the fourth pick so another more desperate organization can get in line to select its quarterback of the future. 

The Falcons might be hesitant to move down too far since they're currently in range of elite talent in this year's class. But a sweetened overture may be too good to resist. After all, a trade-up for a top quarterback prospect always carries a premium, and Atlanta can dangle the chance to select a prospect with awesome upside, like Fields or Lance, to maximize its leverage. 

      

Denver Broncos

There is no rational reason to assume the Broncos are entirely comfortable with Drew Lock as their quarterback. 

Could they continue to build around Lock and go into another season with the 24-year-old as their starter? Sure. He still presents ample arm talent and significant upside. But three factors must be taken into account: 

1. New general manager George Paton didn't draft Lock. 
2. Lock is a former second-round pick and not guaranteed anything as the starter since the team made a minimal investment in him as a second-round pick two years ago. 
3. With a league-leading 15 interceptions (in 13 games) last season, Lock wasn't good enough. Ball security is always important, especially when head coach Vic Fangio stresses organizational attention to details. 

The Broncos own this year's ninth overall pick. Previously, the idea of one of the top five quarterback prospects being available to them seemed far-fetched, but Carolina's acquisition of Darnold changes the math. 

Now with Carolina less likely to be in the QB draft market, Denver can become even more aggressive with one fewer suitor on the board, especially when that franchise owns the pick just in front of the Broncos. There's a possibility that one of the prospects slides to the back end of the top 10. But Denver now holds an advantage over other quarterback-starved teams poised to trade up to the fourth pick. 

Slotting is important. Atlanta may prefer to stay within this year's first 10 picks.

With five quarterbacks expected off the board at some point before the ninth overall selection, the Falcons will still have a choice between some combination of Florida tight end Kyle Pitts, Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell, LSU wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain II, Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, Michigan defensive end Kwity Paye and Alabama wide receivers DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. 

A similar type of deal happened three years ago when the Buffalo Bills moved up five spots to land Josh Allen. At that time, Buffalo only surrendered a pair of second-round picks to make the move. In this case, Denver would move the same number of picks but give up more value with other eager teams vying for the slot. 

Lock remains intriguing, but the team can upgrade at the position with a legitimate first-round talent. 

Trade Package: Atlanta sends the fourth overall pick to the Denver Broncos in exchange for this year's ninth and 40th overall picks and next year's first-round selection. 

    

New England Patriots

The Patriots attacked this offseason with a different type of fervor. The splashy free-agency period, including the signings of Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Matt Judon, Nelson Agholor and Jalen Mills, among others—came as a result of ample salary-cap space while the majority of the league dealt with spending limitations. 

"If there was ever a year to [spend a lot of money], this would be the year because we moved quickly, and instead of having 10-12 teams compete against us, there were only 2-3," owner Robert Kraft told reporters. 

The organization's opulent approach set up a move for a quarterback. Kraft recently emphasized the importance of addressing the elephant in the room. 

“We all know long-term, we have to find a way—either Jarrett Stidham or someone new we bring in. This isn’t something where you get algebraic formulas. Think of all the personnel wizards who passed on six rounds for Tom Brady in 2000. No one knows what's going to happen. We have to balance everything.

"Look, the quarterback is the most important position on the team. We know that. One way or another, we have to get that position solidified."

Cam Newton is back on another one-year deal without any certainty whether he'll ever return to form. The Patriots are already all-in, so there's no reason another strong move in the draft to acquire a quarterback shouldn't be expected. 

Unlike Denver, New England sits outside the top 10 with the 15th overall pick. A move all the way into the top five won't come cheap. 

The Kansas City Chiefs made the last trade from outside the first 15 picks into the top 10 (and just barely) for a quarterback prospect that turned out to be Patrick Mahomes. They moved up 17 spots to get their guy and only traded away their original first- and third-round picks as well as a future first. 

The price will be much steeper in this scenario, but the right decision could bring the Patriots from playoff wannabe to serious contender again (if Atlanta is even willing to deal with its Super Bowl LI adversary). 

Trade Package: Atlanta sends the fourth overall pick to the New England Patriots for three first-round picks (2021, '22 and '23) plus this year's 46th overall pick. 

    

Washington Football Team

At this point, the idea of any other team trading up may be stretching the possibilities a bit (sorry, Bears fans). But with this year's 19th overall pick, Washington could throw everything it has into the mix to get a potential franchise quarterback.

Right now, the nameless squad doesn't have one. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Taylor Heinicke could be good enough to keep the team afloat in the NFC East and possibly even win the division. But Washington has to make a choice.

Is it good enough to merely eke out a crown in the NFL's worst division, or should it go ahead with everything it has now to dominate the division for the foreseeable future by addressing its biggest need area? 

Head coach Ron Rivera said a competition will ensue between Fitzpatrick and Heinicke—which is another way of saying the team really doesn't have a starting quarterback. Meanwhile, the coach kept his options open in regards to alternatives. 

"Picking where we're picking, there are a lot of things that can happen," Rivera told reporters. "We have targets, we have ideas, we have guys that we like, but that always changes just because of the fact that everybody has a choice. You just never know what's going to happen at that point."

The rest of Washington's roster is relatively set. New general manager Martin Mayhew addressed the wide receiver position in free agency with the signings of Curtis Samuel and Adam Humphries. Antonio Gibson is an excellent young running back. The offensive line is four-fifths complete, though left tackle remains a concern. The defense, meanwhile, ranks among the league's best. 

Quarterback is a necessity to consistently win at a high level. There should be no question what Washington does in this year's draft as long as Atlanta is willing to listen. 

Trade Package: Atlanta sends the fourth overall pick to the Washington Football Team for three first-round picks (2021, '22 and '23), plus this year's 51st overall pick and next year's second-round selection. 

    

Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Trey Lance. 

Over the course of the next four weeks, NFL fans will hear those five names more than any others. 

And when the Atlanta Falcons arrive on the clock with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, at least two of those five quarterbacks will remain available. 

Regardless of who is still up for grabs, the Falcons have to select veteran Matt Ryan's eventual replacement. 

Why? Because all five have extremely high NFL ceilings, future drafts are less likely to contain that many high-potential quarterbacks (this could be the first with five signal-callers in the top 10), the Falcons haven't held a top-five pick since they drafted Ryan 13 years ago, and they very well might go another 13-plus years without a primo draft choice. 

Oh, and because the soon-to-be 36-year-old Ryan hasn't been a first- or second-team All-Pro—or even a Pro Bowler—since his MVP 2016 season. 

With a $26.9 million salary-cap hit and a $24.9 million dead-cap charge in the event of a post-June 1 release or trade, Ryan isn't going anywhere in 2021. But with more than $92 million in cap hits on the books for 2022 and 2023, he's likely running out of time in Atlanta. 

He has struggled statistically in three of his last four seasons, and the Falcons have won just 18 games with him under center since the start of 2018. Without a sudden change in his late-career trajectory, there's just no way the organization can justify continuing to pay him elite-quarterback money beyond the next season or two. 

Lawrence almost certainly will not be available when Atlanta's turn comes up, but the other four first-round-caliber quarterbacks in that group could all potentially benefit from a year or two (or three) in the stable. 

Wilson experienced just one big season against soft competition at BYU, Fields could use time to develop his pocket awareness and processing skills, Jones is practically a one-year starter coming from a system that made life easy, and Lance threw just 318 passes in his college career at North Dakota State. 

With quarterbacks likely to be chosen with the first three picks for just the third time in NFL draft history, the Falcons could be tempted to pick the best available non-quarterback in this class. But most experts—including those representing the B/R NFL Scouting Department—view only pass-catchers (Kyle Pitts from Florida, DeVonta Smith from Alabama, Ja'Marr Chase from LSU) or offensive linemen (Penei Sewell from Oregon) as being worthy of such a prime selection. 

It just so happens that the Falcons are heavily invested in those spots with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Hayden Hurst at wide receiver and tight end, stalwart Jake Matthews at left tackle and recent Day 1 or Day 2 draft picks Kaleb McGary, Chris Lindstrom and Matt Hennessy also residing along the offensive line. 

The tantalizingly athletic Pitts could be viewed as an immediate upgrade over Hurst and a potential long-term replacement for the declining, 32-year-old Jones, but that addition would not be worth passing on a potential successor to Ryan at the most important position in the sport. 

There's a perception that quarterback transitions have to take place immediately these days, and it's true that fanbases and front offices have less patience than ever before. But this might be the ideal scenario for a slow, careful baton exchange. 

And it's not as though it's unprecedented in this era. Patrick Mahomes spent pretty much an entire season holding a tablet before turning in an MVP season in 2018, while Aaron Rodgers watched Brett Favre for basically three entire campaigns before launching his Hall of Fame career in 2008. 

Mahomes and Rodgers just happen to be two of the three highest-rated passers in league history. Both won Super Bowls and MVPs within four years of becoming regular starters. 

So even if Ryan suddenly recaptures that 2016 magic despite his age, his career course and the lack of Kyle Shanahan, it makes sense. But the odds are that won't happen anyway. 

In fact, the odds are Ryan is close to done. 

He threw nearly as many interceptions (six) as touchdowns (seven) on deep passing attempts in 2020, and he tossed a tied-for-league-high four picks while posting an ugly 73.1 passer rating in the fourth quarter of one-score games. 

It might not be time to move on just yet, but it's absolutely time to start grooming the heir apparent, whoever that may be. 

      

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter, @Brad_Gagnon.

The Atlanta Falcons have made it closer to the salary cap after reportedly restructuring the contract of quarterback Matt Ryan, according to Zach Klein of television station WSB. 

Per Klein, Ryan's $23 million base salary for 2021 will drop to $2 million, with $21 million guaranteed over the next three years as bonuses. His cap hit for the upcoming season decreased from $40.9 million to $26.9 million. 

The team has come a long way since the start of its offseason moves, when it began with $30 million to shed before they were under the salary cap. The Falcons released three players—Ricardo Allen, James Carpenter and Allen Bailey—and then restructured the contract of left tackle Jake Matthews to ditch another $8 million, per Deen Worley of Falcons Wire. 

With the restructuring of Ryan's deal, the Falcons are finally in the safe spot regarding the cap, per Over the Cap. They are projected to have $177,204 to spend as of Tuesday afternoon. But there may still be other decisions to make if the team wants to make any significant moves in free agency. 

The decision to spread out the salary of the only quarterback on its roster shows that the team is going to remain committed to him for at least the next several years. Since the Falcons pick at No. 4 in the upcoming draft, they could take one of the top collegiate signal-callers if they don't find one in free agency. 

Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank doesn't see his quarterback or one of his top receivers playing elsewhere in 2021. 

Asked about the future of signal-caller Matt Ryan, Blank told NFL Network's Andrew Siciliano that he would be "completely shocked" if Ryan was with another team next season, and he took the liberty of shutting down rumors that Julio Jones was headed out of Atlanta.

"They'll both be with us," he said (h/t Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk). 

From Super Bowl Live: Amidst a crazy offseason for QBs, don't expect the #Falcons' Matt Ryan to go anywhere. @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/8AWQ1kmE7i

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 2, 2021

NFL Network's Tom Pelissero said the team hasn't had "any trade conversations" about either player, even amid the uncertainty following a disappointing season in Atlanta.

The Falcons went 4-12 in 2020 and have hired a new coach and general manager, while their quarterback will turn 36 but still count for $40.9 million against the cap. If he was moved before June 1, he would produce $44 million in dead money against the Falcons, Pelissero said.

Falcons president Rich McKay said in December that he would not interfere if the new general manager wanted to move on from either player, noting that whoever was hired would have to prove it was the right call.

"Give us a plan," he told The Athletic's Jeff Schultz and Tori McElhaney. "Show us what you want to do and show us why. Show us how this gets us to Ws and make sure you actually execute the plan."

But according to multiple reports, it doesn't seem like either new GM Terry Fontenot or new head coach Arthur Smith are looking to move on from two of their stars in their quest to rebuild the franchise. 

Atlanta Falcons star Matt Ryan may not roll out the red carpet, but he won't give a rookie quarterback the cold shoulder if the team targets that position early in the 2021 NFL draft.

Ryan said Wednesday on 680 The Fan in Atlanta: "Part of being a team is you're going to be a good teammate and help where you can, and you also have the personal responsibility of trying to be the best player you can be. ... My personality is not to be standoffish with anybody else."

Matt Ryan on 680-AM: pic.twitter.com/7opuSprLM8

— Jeff Schultz (@JeffSchultzATL) February 3, 2021

NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported the general expectation is for Ryan to remain in Atlanta for the 2021 season:

From Super Bowl Live: Amidst a crazy offseason for QBs, don't expect the #Falcons' Matt Ryan to go anywhere. @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/8AWQ1kmE7i

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 2, 2021

Just as the Detroit Lions have lined up a trade sending Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams, many wondered whether the Falcons hiring a new head coach (Arthur Smith) and general manager (Terry Fontenot) would coincide with an overall reset. That would mean building around a new, younger quarterback.

Ryan's contract makes moving him unfeasible this offseason, though. Per Spotrac, trading him before June 1 would trigger $44.4 million in dead money and cost $3.5 million in salary-cap space.

The financial hit is a little less harsh with a post-June 1 trade ($23 million in cap savings and dead money of $17.9 million in 2021 and $26.5 million in 2022). By then, teams will probably have their quarterback situations settled.

That sets up what could potentially be a tricky dynamic if the Falcons front office and coaching staff do in fact want to use the No. 4 pick on a signal-caller. NFL.com's Bucky Brooks projected Atlanta to select BYU star Zach Wilson.

The Green Bay Packers have so far avoided any major drama stemming from their decision to trade up and take Jordan Love in the 2020 draft. Aaron Rodgers reached out to Love shortly after the first round, and he didn't go out of his way to make the rookie's life difficult.

Ryan doesn't necessarily have to like the decision if the Falcons' mimic Green Bay's succession plan, but it's important he accepts the outcome. And it appears the 35-year-old is willing to do just that.

And if a high-profile QB does arrive this offseason, Ryan has a strong incentive to perform well to impress any possible trade suitors.

The Atlanta Falcons aren't looking to move Matt Ryan or Julio Jones, and "every expectation" is the two stars will remain with the team to open the 2021 season, according to NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

Pelissero cited the salary-cap implications to trading Ryan or Jones as one reason they're likely to stay put:

From Super Bowl Live: Amidst a crazy offseason for QBs, don't expect the #Falcons' Matt Ryan to go anywhere. @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/8AWQ1kmE7i

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 2, 2021

According to Spotrac, trading Ryan before June 1 would force Atlanta to carry $44.4 million in dead money. Waiting until after June 1 would spread that money across 2021 and 2022 while saving the team $23 million. Ryan's trade market may have dried up by that point in the offseason, though.

The situation isn't as bad with Jones but still not really feasible. Offloading him would trigger a $23.3 million dead-money hit.

Many wondered whether the Falcons would look to wipe slate clean this offseason after having fired head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff. Team owner Arthur Blank told reporters in January he'd allow Quinn and Dimitroff's replacements some latitude about how to handle the two franchise stalwarts:

"What I think is important, most important, is that we hire people who are, number one, the very best at their jobs. That goes without saying. Who will come forward with a plan for us to have a championship team, a competitive team, et cetera. And that may include Matt and Julio for now, for the next two years, three years, or may not. I have no idea."

The Falcons announced the hiring of Arthur Smith as head coach on Jan. 16. During an interview with The MMQB's Albert Breer on Jan. 31, Smith was similarly coy when discussing Ryan and Jones:

"It's hard, until we get all the facts, and [general manager Terry Fontenot] and I go through the roster and map out, 'Here's what we want to do in the short-term, long-term.' Obviously we've got to deal with the salary cap that's here. And there's some good pieces, but there are gonna be some decisions we've got to make going forward that may not affect 2021, but could affect the future, 2022, 2023 and on. That's going to be a long process before we even get to free agents, figuring out what we want to do with this current roster."

Ryan and Jones continue to play at reasonably high levels. Ryan threw for 4,581 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2020. Jones caught 51 passes for 771 yards and three touchdowns, but he was limited to only nine appearances because of hamstring problems. His 85.1 receiving yards per game were seventh-highest in the league.

Atlanta hasn't had a winning season since 2017, so upgrades are clearly needed for the roster. Ryan and Jones can still have a role to play to help the Falcons return to the postseason.