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Alabama's Blueprint for Returning to the CFB Title Game in 2020 Season
Jan 7, 2020
Alabama head coach Nick Saban paces during warmups before an NCAA college football game against Arkansas, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2019, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
As the final seconds ticked away in the Iron Bowl, the reality of Alabama's situation became clear. For the first time in six seasons, Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide would have no chance at winning the national title.
Attention soon turned to Tua Tagovailoa, whose hip injury created a bit of uncertainty about his future—but not enough, quite understandably, to prevent him from declaring for the NFL draft. While his choice complicated Alabama's path to the 2020 national title, that goal was unchanged.
While the upcoming quarterback battle will be the main story, and there's also a potentially tricky schedule, the discussion must start with personnel.
Departing seniors include defensive lineman Raekwon Davis, edge-rusher Anfernee Jennings and defensive backs Trevon Diggs, Shyheim Carter and Jared Mayden. But, as always, the Tide also have several marquee players with NFL draft decisions.
Barring changes before the Jan. 17 deadline, Tagovailoa, receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, right tackle Jedrick Wills Jr., edge-rusher Terrell Lewis and safety Xavier McKinney are headed to the NFL. Running back Najee Harris will probably join that group, per Matt Zenitz of AL.com.
That's a whole lot of production to replace, but Alabama is bringing back other key talents—including wideout DeVonta Smith.
Alabama WR DeVonta Smith announces he will return for his senior season.
Left tackle Alex Leatherwood and linebacker Dylan Moses—though his situation is tricky—have also announced they plan to return. Smith and Leatherwood offer a huge boost for the offense.
Instead of needing a few young receivers to emerge, the Tide can lean heavily on Smith and Jaylen Waddle. And rather than having to replace both offensive tackles, Alabama will have four returning starters with an anchor in Leatherwood.
The big question, yes, is the quarterback.
Mac Jones twice stepped in for Tagovailoa and put up 235 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Arkansas in his starting debut. The competition improved significantly in his later stint, but Jones continued to perform well.
Jones was a freaky interception away from perhaps guiding Alabama past Auburn, as he threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions. In the Citrus Bowl, he diced Michigan for 327 yards and three touchdowns with zero picks.
Jones should enter the spring as the favorite in front of Taulia Tagovailoa and 5-star recruit Bryce Young, who enrolled early. Perhaps Jones won't be the starter. But if his three starts were an indicator of his baseline performance, the Tide will have a quality player under center in 2020.
Granted, while the quarterback will shoulder much of the external pressure, Alabama must improve defensively.
The unit ranked 13th nationally in points allowed per game and 15th in yards allowed per play. However, the Tide finished tied for 44th in sacks per game and tied for 61st in tackles for loss per game, and they didn't field a top-tier red-zone defense either.
In losses to Auburn and LSU, they allowed nine scoring drives of 48-plus yards. That's unacceptable for an Alabama defense—and doesn't even factor in opponents' defensive touchdowns and short scoring drives after turnovers. For good measure, Michigan put up 286 yards in the first half of the Citrus Bowl.
It was not an elite defense. Playing at a level worthy of that label in 2020 will be imperative.
While the list of NFL departures is long, Moses and LaBryan Ray will return from injuries. Moses will be especially valuable because of his ability to communicate both quickly and accurately, which was a problem with two newcomers at inside linebacker.
Saban on Dylan Moses returning in 2020: "I think the big thing with Dylan was he wanted to be a part of the team. He wanted to be a leader on the team and come back and play well for #Alabama."
Those mistakes hurt, but the experience should be valuable. The Tide relied on a sizable group of underclassmen, best evidenced by the 11 freshmen or sophomores who held starting roles or important rotational spots. Plus, 10 of Alabama's 14 highest-rated prospects in the 2020 recruiting class are defenders. There will be immediate-impact players from the haul.
Improvement on defense will help the Tide be better prepared against top competition. And there will be plenty of that in 2020.
Alabama will open with a neutral-site clash against USC and host Georgia two weeks later. The most difficult portion of the slate is in November, which includes a trip to LSU and consecutive home games against Texas A&M and Auburn.
Without diving into if-then scenarios, Alabama needs a margin for error entering the final month because LSU and Auburn should be national threats again. An 8-0 start is plausible but mostly hinges on the USC and Georgia games.
Yes, a 13-0 or 12-1 record with an SEC title would be the optimal result. While we can't say whether an 11-1 regular-season record would be good enough for the Tide to sneak into the College Football Playoff—that changes on a yearly basis—we're confident anything worse than 11-1 would lead to elimination.
Thanks to Waddle and Leatherwood, Alabama's lone major offensive concern will be picking a quarterback. The defense must improve against top teams, but the returning injured players and experienced youth make for an encouraging outlook. An 8-0 start will be paramount to navigating November, yet it's something Alabama has accomplished in four straight seasons.
But if the Tide fall short in any of those areas, they'll likely watch the national championship game from home again next season.
Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
What's at Stake Between Alabama and Michigan, and Who Wins the Citrus Bowl?
Dec 30, 2019
Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) throws a pass during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Auburn Saturday, Nov. 30, 2019, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
While not officially a "New Year's Six" game, the Citrus Bowl showdown between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Michigan Wolverines will probably be the most-watched game on the first day of the new calendar year.
No disrespect to Auburn vs. Minnesota in the Outback Bowl, Baylor vs. Georgia in the Sugar Bowl or Wisconsin vs. Oregon in the "Granddaddy of Them All," but we're talking about two of the biggest fanbases and the two winningest FBS programs of all time here.
It might not be a bowl game that "matters," but there's an awful lot at stake in the Citrus Bowl.
Five big things by my count.
1. Alabama's 2020 Starting QB Job
"I think the big thing with Mac (Jones) is he doesn't really have anything to prove. He doesn't have to try to live up, or be anybody but himself." - Saban
Aside from a pair of extremely painful pick-sixes in the Iron Bowl, Mac Jones has been better than most of us were realistically expecting.
In three starts and two relief appearances for the oft-injured Tua Tagovailoa in the second half of the season, Jones completed better than 70 percent of his pass attempts, averaged 10.6 yards per attempt and had 10 touchdowns against two interceptions. In those five games, he put up a passer efficiency rating of 190.5. That's not quite Tagovailoa-great, but it's doggone impressive all the same.
Assuming Tua goes pro, you would think that type of successful extended audition would be enough for Jones to enter the offseason as the heavy favorite to win next year's starting job. However, the Crimson Tide also have Tua's younger brother, Taulia, as well as the No. 1 QB in the 2020 recruiting class, Bryce Young.
Even if Jones has a good performance in the Citrus Bowl, it's still going to be one heck of a tough decision for Nick Saban to make next spring/summer. If he struggles against the Wolverines—taken in conjunction with the loss to Auburn in which he threw two touchdowns to the wrong team—it would make it easier for Saban to put his faith in either a redshirt freshman or a true freshman.
And if that happens, Jones could end up becoming the most intriguing immediately eligible transfer of the 2020 portal cycle—or whatever you want to call college football free agency.
Jones is a redshirt sophomore who has already earned his undergraduate degree, which means he has two years of eligibility remaining and would be able to play right away if he so chooses to continue his collegiate career elsewhere.
Will he be Alabama's next great quarterback? Could he be Joe Burrow 2.0? Or if he really struggles with Michigan, might he need to re-prove that he's worthy of a high-major starting gig?
It's a fun debate that can't truly begin until we get this final, citrus-y data point.
2. Jim Harbaugh's Job Security
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh
Before this season even began, I wrote about this being a "now or never" type of year for Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin all had to break in new quarterbacks. The Buckeyes were also adjusting to a new head coach and needed to play "The Game" at the Big House.
Meanwhile, the Wolverines had a veteran, highly touted QB in Shea Patterson, an experienced offensive line, a solid defense, per usual, and a schedule against which a 13-0 record was at least plausible.
If they didn't win the Big Ten this year, it was going to result in intensifying questions about whether it could ever happen.
Not only did Michigan not win the Big Ten, it wasn't even close, finishing in third place in the Big Ten East and fifth place overall with three league losses. The Wolverines got smashed by both Wisconsin and Ohio State and trailed Penn State 21-0 before a too little, too late finish to that L.
At least they embarrassed Notre Dame and eked out wins over Iowa and Army, but 9-3 was not the goal here. If they get blown out by Alabama, there are going to be many words written about the temperature of Harbaugh's seat as the head coach.
For what it's worth, I think it would be a foolish, short-sighted move to fire him. Michigan has finished in the Top 15 of the CFP rankings in four of the past five years, including two years in the Top Seven. The Wolverines want titles, but kick this man to the curb and you risk a return to the dark days of Brady Hoke and Rich Rodriguez. But narratives gonna narrative, and we'll be spending much of the next eight months talking about Harbaugh's job security if this game goes sideways.
3. Draft Day Health
Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy
Players skipping bowl games to prepare for the NFL draft has been quite the hot-button issue for the past half-decade, and this year's Citrus Bowl is a huge one in that regard.
In his early-December three-round mock draft, our resident draft expert Matt Miller had a combined total of 16 players from these two rosters projected to go in the top 92 in April. (That doesn't even include Michigan linebacker Josh Uche, who has already declared for the draft and might go in the first three rounds.)
Tua Tagovailoa and Dylan Moses won't be playing due to injury. Trevon Diggs and Terrell Lewis have opted to sit out to prepare for the draft. But that still leaves at least a dozen players putting a lot of hypothetical money on the line by risking injury in this game.
Wide receivers are at the forefront of that list. Alabama's Jerry Jeudy (projected No. 3 pick), Henry Ruggs III (No. 16), DeVonta Smith (No. 25) and Michigan's Donovan Peoples-Jones (No. 26) all have first-round grades. As do offensive tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (No. 15) and safety Xavier McKinney (No. 28).
If one of those six players blows out a knee while playing in a bowl game not even regarded as one of the six most prestigious, it's going to re-open Pandora's box, leading to questions of whether a draft-eligible player should ever risk injury in a non-CFP bowl.
Conversely, if one of the receivers has the type of outlandish performance that LSU's Justin Jefferson had on Saturday, it could be an opposite turning point in this whole debate, convincing more stars to play that one final game.
4. Paul Finebaum's Sanity
ESPN's Paul Finebaum has long been regarded as the foremost SEC homer in the national media, and he has never been shy about his disdain for Michigan's Jim Harbaugh.
In April 2016, Finebaum called Harbaugh "the Donald Trump of college football" because of the Wolverines head coach's stance in favor of satellite camps.
The following February, he outright called Harbaugh a "cheater" and "an evil genius" for hiring an assistant coach who was the father of a highly-touted prospect in the 2019 recruiting class. (That coach actually went to Oregon a few days later instead, and the player, Michael Johnson Jr., signed with Penn State and was barely even regarded as a 4-star recruit in the end.)
Lately, though, Finebaum has simply taken shots at Harbaugh after Michigan losses, constantly expressing his doubts that the Wolverines will ever be great again under this head coach.
If Alabama convincingly wins this game, it means another offseason of Finebaum gleefully banging the anti-Harbaugh drum. But if Michigan gets the W, it might break the radio personality's brain. Either way, this game is a #content dream.
5. Bragging Rights, Of Course
Alabama head coach Nick Saban
Michigan and Alabama have played more than 2,600 combined games, but this is just the fifth meeting between the two winningest FBS programs. (Michigan has 936 wins; Alabama has 929.)
The Crimson Tide won the 2012 season opener by 27, but the previous three meetings were each bowl games—1988 Hall of Fame Bowl, 1997 Outback Bowl and 2000 Orange Bowl—decided by four points or fewer. Each program won two of the first four games, so this is something of a rubber match as far as college football historians are concerned.
It's also a key result as far as No. 1 on the all-time wins list is concerned. An Alabama win would close that gap to just six, which the Crimson Tide might be able to erase entirely within the next two years. A Michigan win would further delay the seemingly inevitable, but it might be just what it needs to spark some championship momentum, keeping Alabama at bay for a while longer.
Even if you don't care that much about the history, this could be a colossal game for the immediate future of the recruiting arms race. These coaching staffs are constantly squaring off in the hunt for top-notch talent, and the Citrus Bowl winner is going to have an intriguing head-to-head selling point on the recruiting trail for the next year or two.
Prediction
Alabama is favored by seven, per Caesars Sportsbook, and it's hard to argue with that.
Michigan is 2-11 against AP Top 10 opponents under Harbaugh, and both of the wins (Notre Dame this year, Wisconsin in 2016) were home games. But Alabama wins games like this all the time. Just last season, the Crimson Tide had three wins away from home against AP Top Five opponents.
Alabama's biggest weakness is its run defense, but Michigan will likely have trouble exploiting that, considering it was held below 100 rushing yards in each of its last three games. Unless Michigan RB Zach Charbonnet bounces back from a rough finish to have the game of his young life, Alabama should get the win.
Recruiting rankings via 247Sports' composite. Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter,@kerrancejames.
NCAA Football Rankings 2019: Predicting Movers in Week 15 After Latest Results
Dec 1, 2019
Auburn defensive lineman Nick Coe (91) celebrates after Alabama missed a field goal that would have tied the game in a 48-45 win over Alabama during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 30, 2019, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
For the second straight week, a pair of Top 10 teams are expected to tumble in the college football rankings.
By suffering Week 14 losses, Alabama and Minnesota joined Oregon and Penn State in the growing list of programs with their College Football Playoff dreams dashed in November.
The Crimson Tide could remain in the Top 10 because they were competitive in their Iron Bowl loss to Auburn, but the same can't be said for the Golden Gophers, who fell by 21 points at home to Wisconsin.
Auburn's victory could push it up a few spots and it could give the top-heavy SEC five teams in the Top 12.
Biggest Movers in Week 15 Polls
Alabama
AUBURN, ALABAMA - NOVEMBER 30: Joseph Bulovas #97 of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts after missing a game-tying field goal in the final minutes of their 48-45 loss to the Auburn Tigers with Mac Jones #10 at Jordan Hare Stadium on November 30, 2019 in Aub
Saturday's loss to Auburn confirmed Alabama will miss out on the playoff for the first time since it was installed back in 2014.
Entering Week 14, Nick Saban's team had a chance to sneak in as the No. 4 seed, but it needed to beat the Tigers in convincing fashion since it had no conference championship appearance.
Instead, the Crimson Tide have two defeats to SEC West rivals and are bound for a New Year's Six bowl.
In fact, Alabama outgained Auburn 515-354, had 11 more minutes of possession and was more efficient on third and fourth downs.
But its two turnovers were costly, as both of Jones' interceptions were returned for touchdowns, including a 100-yard score from Zakoby McClain in the third quarter.
The loss should drop Alabama at least three positions since Utah, Oklahoma and Baylor, all of whom are still in playoff contention, won ahead of Championship Week appearances.
Some voters may be willing to drop the Crimson Tide beneath Penn State, Florida or Wisconsin, but due to the close nature of their loss, the realistic landing spot is the back end of the Top 10.
Minnesota
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - NOVEMBER 30: Eric Burrell #25 of the Wisconsin Badgers breaks up a pass intended for Rashod Bateman #13 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the second quarter of the game at TCF Bank Stadium on November 30, 2019 in Minneapolis,
Minnesota dropped its second straight game to a ranked Big Ten West foe and lost Paul Bunyan's axe after a year of possession in its rivalry with Wisconsin.
The Golden Gophers struggled to establish their ground attack in adverse conditions, as they totaled 76 rushing yards compared to Wisconsin's 173.
Tanner Morgan, who was the star of the win over Penn State, was inefficient in the pocket by going 20-for-37 for 296 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
Once the loss wears off, those within and outside the program can look back on a massive step forward in P.J. Fleck's third season.
A year ago, Minnesota beat Wisconsin to become bowl eligible and finished 7-6. This season, it is 10-2 with a chance to earn an 11th win in a bowl game.
A fall of four or five spots is expected since the Golden Gophers lost by three scores in their home stadium.
Baylor, Penn State, Florida and Wisconsin should jump over them and Auburn could too, depending on how high some pollsters want to position a three-loss team.
Auburn
Auburn is not your typical three-loss squad, as its defeats came at the hands of LSU, Georgia and Florida.
That will be taken into consideration when the ballots are submitted for Sunday's polls and Tuesday's playoff rankings.
Additionally, the Tigers win over Oregon could generate a boost depending on how many voters value head-to-head results.
At minimum, Gus Malzahn's team will leap over Michigan, and a larger leap is contingent on how far Minnesota tumbles.
The debate to move the Tigers over Oregon could have an affect on the playoff discussion since the Ducks face Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
If Auburn moves ahead of Oregon, it would make Utah's possible best win over No. 14, instead of No. 12 or No. 13, which may be significant when breaking down the minute details of each team's resume.
Auburn will not jump high enough to make it into a New Year's Six bowl, but it should finish the season in the Citrus or Outback Bowl depending on how many SEC squads get into the six premier postseason games.
Every game matters in college football, but the final week of the regular season always packs a little extra punch...
College Football Odds Week 14: Latest Top 25 Picks and Final-Score Predictions
Nov 28, 2019
COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 23: Chase Young #2 of the Ohio State Buckeyes chases down the ballcarrier against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio Stadium on November 23, 2019 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)
The top challenger to Ohio State's College Football Playoff hopes could be its biggest rival.
Michigan enters "The Game" on a four-game winning streak that boosted it up to No. 13 in Tuesday's CFB Playoff rankings.
If Jim Harbaugh earns his first win in the rivalry, the playoff picture will be altered with one week left to play.
However, Ohio State has not displayed many flaws, and it may take a perfect performance from the Wolverines to come out on top.
The postseason outlook could also change if Alabama stumbles against Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Unlike other contenders, the Crimson Tide have a single game left to impress the selection committee.
A loss, or an uninspiring win, may hurt Nick Saban's team when the committee compares final resumes.
Outside of those two possessions, the Nittany Lions did not move the ball well versus the Chase Young-led defense.
That is why Michigan should be concerned about its offensive production Saturday on home soil.
The Wolverines produced at least 38 points in each of their last four contests, but they did not face a pass-rusher as dominant as Young.
In three Top 25 matchups, the junior defensive end has 19 tackles, 7.5 sacks and four forced fumbles.
Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson has been sacked on 20 occasions, with six coming in the last two games versus Indiana and Michigan State.
If the senior's offensive line can't fend off Young, the home side could be in for a rough offensive start.
Michigan's front seven could have a similar impact since it boasts four players with four or more sacks and Justin Fields has been brought down 11 times against ranked foes.
But the Georgia transfer has recovered well from defensive pressure, as he scored eight total touchdowns against Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan State.
Fields and J.K. Dobbins should be able to find gaps in the Michigan rushing defense that allows 105.9 ground yards per game.
If that occurs, it could set up successful pass plays with the Wolverines overcrowding the box to stop the run.
In Chris Olave, K.J. Hill and Binjimen Victor, Fields has one of the best sets of wide receivers in the country.
If the visitors achieve success early, they will force Michigan to pass the ball more to make up the difference, which is where Young could excel.
The Wolverines may be able to stay in the contest for a half, but at some point, Ohio State's dominance should shine through and open up a 12th straight double-digit victory.
A win would likely keep Ryan Day's squad atop the playoff rankings ahead of one more Top 25 showdown in the Big Ten Championship Game versus either Minnesota or Wisconsin.
Alabama 21, Auburn 17
The Iron Bowl is more difficult to gauge since the Crimson Tide come into Jordan-Hare Stadium with Mac Jones under center.
In his first start, Jones tossed for 275 passing yards and three touchdowns against three-win FCS side Western Carolina.
The Week 13 performance was a confidence builder and nothing more for the Alabama backup, who faces a much more impressive defense in Week 14.
Auburn ranks 10th in FBS scoring defense with 16.2 points conceded per contest, and it allows 196.9 passing yards per game.
If Derrick Brown and the Tigers defensive line can get pressure on Jones early, it could fluster him and make scoring a difficult task for the Crimson Tide.
Look for Jones to rely on Najee Harris for support in an attempt to kick-start a few drives. The junior running back has a quartet of 100-yard performances, and his two highest totals were against Top 25 foes.
Even if Alabama struggles to score, it likely will not get overpowered by Bo Nix and Auburn's offense.
The freshman averages 164.8 passing yards in Top 25 matchups and a good chunk of his 245 yards versus Georgia occurred in a fourth-quarter comeback attempt.
Even in contests versus weaker opposition, Nix has struggled to be dominant, as he had 340 yards and zero touchdowns in a 20-point output against Ole Miss November 2.
Auburn hit the 50-point mark on four occasions, but they were all against teams with losing records and FCS sides.
In their five ranked showdowns, the Tigers averaged 16 points per game, which may be enough to keep them hanging around Saturday, but not good enough to win.
At some point, Jones should be able to beat the Auburn pass rush and pick out his collection of wide receivers.
If he does that, the Crimson Tide will come away with a win, but it may not be impressive enough to vault them into the playoff in two weeks if Utah and Oklahoma blow out their final two opponents and Georgia loses to LSU in the SEC Championship Game.
