Fantasy Baseball

There are several strategies that can be used to win in fantasy baseball, but one of the most tried and true is being able to identify breakout players and avoid those who are going to disappoint. 

Major League Baseball teams make it difficult to parse out which potential rookies will really have great years because of all the service-time manipulation that takes place. There are certainly young players you can look at and see the star potential, even if they don't start the year in the big leagues. 

On the other hand, a bust can be tricky to pinpoint because by its very nature, it implies a player with some sort of track record of success and good performance the previous year. 

Rather than get overwhelmed with all of the numbers required to study which players will be breakout performers and busts in 2021, here is a list of sleepers to target in your draft and overrated players to avoid. 

      

Sleeper: Zach Eflin, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

A former first-round pick in 2012, Zach Eflin looks to be trending in the right direction after two solid seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Eflin was a quality starter in 2019 with a career-high 163.1 innings pitched, 4.13 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Those aren't numbers that are going to light the fantasy world on fire, but they helped him solidify his standing as a legitimate mid-rotation pitcher. 

Last year was Eflin's breakout year. He finished with a 3.97 ERA, 70 strikeouts and a 1.27 WHIP in 59 innings. It's tricky to know how much of that is repeatable because of how short the 2020 season was, so let's look at some of the underlying numbers that helped him get to those numbers. 

Eflin's average fastball velocity of 93.9 mph was the second-fastest of his career (94.3 mph in 2018). He also threw his curveball more than ever (13.1 percent) and has continued to increase usage of his cutter (5.9 percent). 

Per Baseball Savant, opponents hit .100 with a .125 slugging percentage against Eflin's curveball with a whiff rate of 43.9 percent last year. 

The fastball has some sink to it that led to him generating a career-high groundball rate of 47.4 percent. He's still more homer-prone than you would like to see (1.22 per nine innings), but the rest of his stats indicate the right-hander is at least capable of being a top-50 starter in 2021. 

Eflin is currently the 75th pitcher coming off the board with an average draft position of 195, per Fantasy Pros.

By comparison, Corey Kluber has pitched a total of 36.2 innings the past two years combined and will pitch in the American League East with the New York Yankees. He's going 43 spots ahead of Eflin in fantasy drafts right now. 

      

Bust: Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

When Aaron Judge plays, there are few players in MLB who are more fun to watch. He's slugged at least .528 in each of his four full seasons and averages 45 homers and 102 RBI per 162 games played.

In order to actually hit those numbers, though, you have to play. Since playing in 155 games as a rookie in 2017, Judge has played a total of 242 out of a possible 384 games over the past three seasons. 

Some of Judge's injury issues have just been bad luck. He missed 46 games in 2018 with a broken bone in his wrist after being hit by a pitch against the Kansas City Royals. 

The past two years have seen Judge miss time due to non-contact injuries. He strained his oblique in 2019 and dealt with a stress fracture in his ribs in 2020. 

Despite Judge's growing injury report, he's got an average draft position of 49. Certainly, if he stays healthy, a fourth-round pick ends up looking like a bargain. But there's been no evidence recently to suggest the two-time All-Star is going to play at least 120 games in 2021. 

     

Sleeper: Will Smith, RP, Atlanta Braves

The value on closers in fantasy, much like in the real world, often gets overrated because it's a position that no team wants to have instability at. 

Just looking at average draft position for closers, there are six currently going in the top 100 picks. From that group, though, there's a great deal of uncertainty. Aroldis Chapman is the safest player in the group because of his track record, but he's lost fastball velocity in each of the past three years. He still averaged 98.1 mph with the heater last season, so it's not like he's easy to square up. 

Josh Hader, whose ERA has gone up each year of his career and hit a 3.79 mark last year, is the top reliever coming off the board. Edwin Diaz went from being removed as the New York Mets closer in 2019 to posting a career-best 1.75 ERA in 2020. 

In other words, there's no reason to be pressured into taking one of the top closers because there's going to be great depth at the position in the later rounds. 

Atlanta Braves reliever Will Smith has great sleeper potential coming off a down year. The left-hander posted a 4.50 ERA and allowed seven homers in just 16 innings, but most of that damage came in the first month of the season. 

In 10 appearances during September, Smith had a 3.24 ERA with four hits allowed and 10 strikeouts over 8.1 innings. 

Braves manager Brian Snitker has said he's keeping all of his options open for the team's closer role in 2021. 

Smith likely has the inside track because of his history of success and by virtue of making $13 million per season on his current contract. If teams are paying that kind of money for a reliever, they typically want them throwing the most high-leverage innings to maximize the value. 

In his three seasons prior to 2020, Smith posted a 2.70 ERA with 193 strikeouts in 136.2 innings as a member of the San Francisco Giants. He did miss the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery but returned with no issues in mid-2018. 

Smith is currently the No. 27 reliever being selected with an average draft position of 189 overall. He certainly comes with more volatility than the top group of players at the position, but it's not a position where you go to for stability anyway. It's a crapshoot every year, and the smart move is to bet on a player who will likely be given the ninth-inning role for a good team. 

      

Bust: Any Tampa Bay Rays Starting Pitcher

Coming off an appearance in the World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays decided to get rid of their two most reliable starting pitchers this offseason. 

Charlie Morton signed a one-year contract with the Atlanta Braves after the Rays declined his $15 million option. Blake Snell was traded to the San Diego Padres for Francisco Mejia and three prospects. 

Since the Rays aren't looking to spend a lot of money on players, Snell and Morton were replaced by Michael Wacha and Chris Archer. 

Granted, Morton wasn't a dominant player last season. He posted a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings and had his lowest strikeout rate (9.95 per nine innings) since 2016. 

But Wacha and Archer haven't been front-line starters since 2015. Wacha's 6.62 ERA last year was tied for 142nd out of 158 pitchers with at least 30 innings.

Archer's career fell off a cliff after the Rays traded him to the Pittsburgh Pirates in July 2018. The two-time All-Star had a 4.92 ERA with 203 strikeouts in 172 innings with the Pirates. He missed the entire 2020 campaign after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. 

In addition to Archer and Wacha, the Rays starting rotation is expected to include Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Yarbrough and Rich Hill.

Glasnow has the highest ceiling in that group and did post a 1.78 ERA two years ago but only pitched 60.2 innings that season. He's only reached the 100-inning barrier once in five MLB seasons. 

The Rays don't use starting pitchers like most teams anyway. They have a set plan on how long they want their starter to go, at which point manager Kevin Cash will go the bullpen. That's part of the reason why Snell was pulled from Game 6 of the World Series in the sixth inning, despite allowing just one run from two hits on 73 pitches. 

Until the Rays decide that they are going to let their starters go, no one projected to be in their rotation this season is worth rostering. 

Even though fantasy drafts are often won and lost in the middle and later rounds because depth is so crucial for a long season, the tone for your roster is set in the first round. 

The opening round is when every superstar is going to come off the board. There's plenty of depth at every position where there might be a few big names available after the top 12 players are taken, but for the most part, your best player is going to come in the opening round. 

Before you set your big board and head into the draft room to build your squad for 2021, here are some words of wisdom to help maximize the potential from your top pick.

       

2021 Fantasy Mock Draft First Round (Standard Head-to-Head Scoring)

1. Mookie Betts, OF (Los Angeles Dodgers)

2. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF (Atlanta Braves)

3. Mike Trout, OF (Los Angeles Angels) 

4. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS (San Diego Padres)

5. Juan Soto, OF (Washington Nationals)

6. Trea Turner, SS (Washington Nationals)

7. Trevor Story, SS (Colorado Rockies)

8. Gerrit Cole, SP (New York Yankees) 

9. Jose Ramirez, 3B (Cleveland)

10. Jacob deGrom, SP (New York Mets) 

11. Freddie Freeman, 1B (Atlanta Braves) 

12. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (Los Angeles Dodgers)

       

First-Round Strategy and Cheat-Sheet Information

There Are Two Options for the No. 1 Overall Pick

If you are fortunate enough to get the top pick in the draft, congratulations, because you have the opportunity to select Mookie Betts or Ronald Acuna Jr. 

As great as Mike Trout is, and as much fun as Fernando Tatis Jr. is, Betts and Acuna are the only two players you really need to consider at No. 1 overall. 

Acuna's fantasy ceiling is off the charts. In the last full MLB season two years ago, the Atlanta Braves star missed becoming the fifth member of the 40-40 club by three stolen bases. His batting average took a dip last season (.250), but he set career highs in on-base percentage (.406) and slugging percentage (.581).  

Betts had no problems adjusting to National League pitching in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He finished second in NL MVP voting with a .292/.366/.562 slash line with 16 homers, 39 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 55 games. 

The only thing that could slightly depress the fantasy value for both players is their spot in the batting order. They both hit leadoff, which likely gives them fewer opportunities to drive in runs. But they also play for teams with loaded lineups that will allow them to score a ton of runs. 

By comparison, Trout doesn't look quite as good because the Los Angeles Angels don't have the infrastructure around him. Anthony Rendon will make it easier for him to score runs, but RBI opportunities will likely be few and far between. 

Tatis could easily elevate himself into the Betts-Acuna fantasy territory, but he isn't quite up there yet heading into his third full season. His rookie campaign was cut short due to injuries, but the 22-year-old did play in 59 of 60 regular-season games last year. 

As long as he stays healthy in 2021, he should have no problem being one of the three best fantasy players in MLB. 

          

Don't Be Frightened by Turner's Injury History

It's a testament to how good Trea Turner is when healthy that he has been worthy of a first-round selection for most of his career with the Washington Nationals. 

Last year was only the second time in five full MLB seasons that the 27-year-old didn't spend time on the injured list. He was also excellent with a .335/.394/.588 slash line, 12 homers, 41 RBI and 12 stolen bases in 59 games. 

Even in the seasons when Turner has missed significant time due to injuries, he's put up numbers that most players can't get to in 162 games. Despite missing 64 games in 2017, he hit 11 homers, drove in 45 runs, stole 46 bases and scored 75 runs. 

During the 2019 season, he hit .298/.353/.497 with 19 homers, 57 RBI and 35 stolen bases in 122 games. 

If Turner can stay healthy for an entire season, he's a borderline MVP candidate in the National League. 

            

Beware the 2020 Career Year

Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer won the Cy Young Award in their respective leagues last year, but neither player is included in our first-round mock draft. 

Both pitchers are certainly early-round fantasy selections, possibly as early as Round 2. When it comes to the first round, though, Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole are much safer bets because they have longer track records of elite-level performance. 

In order to properly evaluate Bieber and Bauer, it's probably best to focus more on what they did in 2019 than in 2020. A 60-game season is virtually impossible to determine what was real and what was a small-sample mirage. 

Bieber led MLB with a 1.63 ERA; Bauer was second at 1.73. They also had the highest strand rates in MLB. Bauer's .215 batting average on balls in play was 79 points lower than his career average, and he posted the lowest groundball rate of his career (34.3 percent). 

Consistency has never been a trait Bauer has displayed in the big leagues. His ERA totals over the past four seasons have been 4.19 (2017), 2.21 (2018), 4.48 (2019) and 1.73 (2020). 

Bieber does offer more certainty than Bauer by virtue of being five years younger and an All-Star two years ago, his first full season in the big leagues. The Cleveland ace had a 3.28 ERA with 259 strikeouts in 214.2 innings in 2019. 

Fantasy Pros has Bieber ranked as the No. 3 pitcher and a borderline first-round pick (No. 10 overall). Bauer is ranked fifth, with Yu Darvish of the San Diego Padres ahead of him. DeGrom and Cole are the only starters ahead of Bieber, which is justified because they have been elite for the past three years. 

If you're going to draft a starter in the first round, make it deGrom or Cole. If both of them are off the board, you can wait until the second round to start building your rotation. 

There are just over two weeks remaining until the start of the 2021 Major League Baseball season, making this the perfect opportunity to plan for your fantasy draft. 

This year looks to be incredibly deep in fantasy star power, both for position players and pitchers. The position players, especially, could be as strong as they have been in a number of years. There's an argument to be made for a 12-team draft going entirely with position players in the first round. 

Before you go into your draft room, here is a handy guide to plan your fantasy strategy and increase your chances of winning your league in 2021.

             

2021 Fantasy Mock Draft First Round (Standard Head-to-Head Scoring)

1. Mookie Betts, OF (Los Angeles Dodgers)

2. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF (Atlanta Braves)

3. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS (San Diego Padres)

4. Mike Trout, OF (Los Angeles Angels)

5. Juan Soto, OF (Washington Nationals)

6. Trea Turner, SS (Washington Nationals)

7. Trevor Story, SS (Colorado Rockies)

8. Gerrit Cole, SP (New York Yankees) 

9. Jose Ramirez, 3B (Cleveland)

10. Jacob deGrom, SP (New York Mets) 

11. Freddie Freeman, 1B (Atlanta Braves) 

12. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF (Los Angeles Dodgers)

             

Early-Round Strategy and Cheat-Sheet Information

Don't Overrate Players Based on 2020 Stats

One potential trap that can be easy to fall into is overrating players based on how they performed in the 60-game 2020 season.

A perfect example of this is Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez. He's been one of the best catchers in MLB throughout his career with six All-Star selections and five Gold Glove awards. 

Last season was the 30-year-old's best as a hitter, by far. He posted a .333/.353/.633 slash line with 11 homers and 32 RBI. 

On the surface, those numbers look great given the length of the season and make him worthy of being an early-round selection. 

A deeper dive into the stats shows Perez was incredibly lucky in 2020. He's never been one to take walks anyway, but his 1.9 walk percentage last year was the lowest of his career. He also set career highs with a 23.1 strikeout percentage and .375 batting average on balls in play. 

Per Fantasy Pros, Perez is currently being drafted as the No. 2 catcher behind J.T. Realmuto with an average draft position of 87. 

By comparison, Gary Sanchez of the New York Yankees is going an average 59 picks after Perez. Even coming off a down year with a .618 OPS, he hit nearly as many homers (11) as Perez, albeit in 49 games. 

Sanchez did post a career-high strikeout rate (36 percent), but his .159 BABIP was nearly 100 points worse than his career average (.256). 

Bryan Hoch of MLB.com noted the Yankees intend to start this season with Sanchez as their primary catcher. The 28-year-old averaged 28 homers, 73 RBI and posted a .238/.320/.495 slash line in three seasons from 2017-19. 

There's just far more value in waiting for Sanchez in round 10-11 instead of reaching for Perez in round four and hoping that he repeats last year's success, which is based on a small sample size. 

Trevor Bauer is another player to avoid based on the small-sample success from 2020. He's always been an effective starter in the big leagues, but 2018 and 2020 are the only years he's ever looked like an ace. 

His success last year was predicated on a career-low .215 batting average on balls in play and career-high strand rate of 90.9 percent.

Steamer projects the reigning NL Cy Young winner to have a solid season with a 3.69 ERA and 10.73 strikeouts per nine innings in 2021, but that doesn't make him worth an average draft position of No. 14 overall when Aaron Nola, Walker Buehler and Lucas Giolito are likely to be available. 

            

First Base and Catcher Can Wait

First base and catcher are two difficult positions to figure out this season, for very different reasons. Catching has been incredibly thin, in reality and fantasy for years. First base has almost too many potential options that the bargains should be plentiful. 

Realmuto is the only superstar catcher you should be targeting in the first five rounds of the draft. His offensive value since the start of 2016 is 57.3; Sanchez is a distant second at 32.4, per FanGraphs.

There have only been three catchers with enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title over the past two seasons combined.  

Realmuto and Perez are the only catchers currently being drafted on average among the top 100 picks. There are seven being drafted between picks 101-200, including Sanchez, Will Smith, Willson Contreras, Yasmani Grandal and Travis d'Arnaud. 

Reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman and Cody Bellinger are borderline first-round options, but there are better value picks starting with Jose Abreu.

The Chicago White Sox star is currently the No. 3 first baseman coming off the board around pick No. 37. DJ LeMahieu has first-base eligibility, but among traditional first basemen, Pete Alonso is fourth on the board. 

Alonso does have sleeper potential, even as a potential fifth-round pick. His stock appears to be down a bit after posting a .231/.326/.490 slash line last season, but again it's important to not get hung up on numbers in a small-sample-size year. 

You can find bargains at the position in the middle of the draft. Paul Goldschmidt is still a quality offensive player who is available in Round 6 or 7. Anthony Rizzo, another strong rebound candidate, is going on average No. 98 overall.

Eric Hosmer could be hitting in the middle of the best lineup in MLB this season. The San Diego Padres first baseman drove in 99 runs two years ago and 36 in 38 games last year. He's currently the 16th-ranked player at the position with an ADP of 148. 

          

Don't Fall Into the Closer Trap

There's no more dangerous position to bet on than relief pitching, both in the real world and the fantasy realm. It's an often volatile group because one bad outing can sink a player's stats for the entire year. 

Relief pitching is also unstable because the sample sizes are so small from year to year that anything can change in the blink of an eye, with rare exceptions.

Josh Hader of the Milwaukee Brewers is a perfect example. The two-time All-Star still has the reputation as an elite-level closer because he led the NL with 13 saves last year and still strikes out hitters at a high rate. 

But opponents have gotten much better at timing his fastball since the start of 2019. He only allowed 41 hits in 75.2 innings pitched two years ago, but 15 of those hits went over the fence. 

Here's what Robert Murray of The Athletic wrote about Hader's fastball in August 2019: 

"The velocity on his fastball has increased from 94.5 mph to 95.4. The spin has jumped from 2043 rpm (revolutions per minute) to 2122. He is throwing it 82.9 percent of the time, the highest of his career, and opponents are hitting just .157 against it. But when Hader misses his location—something that has happened frequently recently—hitters have pummeled the fastball."

Last year continued the downward trend for the 26-year-old, despite the save total. He had the highest ERA of his career (3.79) with 10 walks in 19 innings. 

Since I've railed against judging positive performance last year because of the small sample size, it's only fair I do the same thing for Hader given his limited playing time. 

There are some other warning signs that he could continue to struggle in 2021. His average fastball velocity dipped one mile per hour from 2019 (95.6) to 2020 (94.6), and he threw it a career-low 67.7 percent of the time. 

Hader uses his fastball to get ahead in the count, setting up his wipeout slider when he gets to two strikes. If he doesn't have the same velocity and control of the pitch that he did in 2017-18, the odds of him being an elite closer decrease dramatically. 

Brad Hand is another perennial All-Star closer who seems likely to disappoint. The left-hander led MLB with 16 saves pitching for Cleveland last year, but there was a lot of luck involved in that performance. 

Per FanGraphs, the 30-year-old didn't allow a home run in 22 innings pitched despite having the worst groundball rate (26.5 percent) of his career. His velocity has been trending down for two seasons, with his fastball averaging 91.4 mph in 2020. 

The Washington Nationals signed Hand to become their closer in 2021. The three-time All-Star is around the strike zone often enough to make diminished velocity work for him, but he's still being drafted like a top-10 reliever when it seems unlikely he can stay at that level based on his underlying stats. 

The MLB playoffs will continue Wednesday with matchups from all four Division Series taking place, starting with the Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves at 2:08 p.m. ET.

The Houston Astros will look to become the first team to advance to the next round with a win over the Oakland Athletics after taking their first two games against the A's.

The Braves are looking to grab a 2-0 series lead over the Marlins, and the Los Angeles Dodgers are aiming to earn a 2-0 edge on the San Diego Padres.

The winner of the New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays matchup will go up two games to one and earn a chance to clinch an American League Championship Series spot on Thursday.

For now, a quartet of MLB games are set for Wednesday. Here's a look at the odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook) as of 2 a.m. ET, the television schedule, the top DraftKings daily fantasy picks for each game and some DFS pitching advice.

          

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Moneyline: Atlanta -205 ($205 bet to win $100)

Over/Under: 9

TV Schedule: 2:08 p.m. ET, MLB Network

Pitching Matchup: Pablo Lopez (Miami) vs. Ian Anderson (Atlanta)

Location: Houston

Top Fantasy Picks: Marlins OF Corey Dickerson ($2,900), Braves 1B Freddie Freeman ($5,000)

       

Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics

Moneyline: Houston -125

Over/Under: 8.5

TV Schedule: 3:35 p.m. ET, TBS

Pitching Matchup: Jose Urquidy (Houston) vs. Jesus Luzardo (Oakland)

Location: Los Angeles

Top Fantasy Picks: Astros 3B Alex Bregman ($4,100), Athletics SS Marcus Semien ($4,100)

     

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Moneyline: New York -124

Over/Under: 9

TV Schedule: 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS

Pitching Matchup: Masahiro Tanaka (New York) vs. Charlie Morton (Tampa Bay)

Location: San Diego

Top Fantasy Picks: Rays SP Charlie Morton ($6,600), Rays OF Randy Arozarena ($3,600)

         

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Moneyline: (Unavailable as of 2 a.m. ET)

Over/Under: (Unavailable as of 2 a.m. ET)

TV Schedule: 9:08 p.m. ET, FS1

Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles) vs. TBD (San Diego)

Location: Arlington, Texas

Top Fantasy Picks: Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw ($9,600), Dodgers OF Mookie Betts ($5,700)

           

Wednesday DFS Advice (Pitching)

The pitching slate is simple to break down: Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is a huge cut above everyone else.

Kershaw is the best pitcher on the slate, one who can make a strong lineup look incompetent. He's coming off an eight-inning, 13-strikeout performance in a 3-0 win over the Milwaukee Brewers to close out the wild-card series. Padres hitters are also a combined .204 against him in his career.

He should be a cash game lock on every site, including DraftKings, where his $9,600 salary is too enticing to look past. Kershaw would be worth rostering if his salary was $11,000 or more, even if that would potentially hamstring players into worse batting lineup choices. However, he has a great fantasy-point floor, a sky-high ceiling and a good history against this Padres team too.

Kershaw should also be the No. 1 option in tournaments, albeit a chalky one. However, if you want another option to differentiate yourself from the field, then take a look at the Rays' Charlie Morton at $6,600, the cheapest salary on the pitching slate.

Morton faces a Yankees team that features nine players who can easily break a game open with one swing of the bat, but the Bronx Bombers strike out a ton, too. They struck out 18 times on Tuesday in a 7-5 loss to Tampa Bay.

Morton has had a down year by his standards with a 2-2 record, 4.74 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 38 innings, but he showed promise in his final two starts that could foreshadow a sign of better things to come for the veteran.

Of note, the ex-Houston Astro and 2017 World Series winner punched out a season-high eight in a Sept. 25 start against the Philadelphia Phillies, the team he faced in his last regular-season appearance. He was solid the start before against the Baltimore Orioles, allowing just one earned run over five innings and striking out six. 

Morton's last start against the Yankees on Sept. 25, 2019 resulted in six shutout innings of one-run ball alongside nine strikeouts. That may be a tall order to ask of him this year given his struggles, but Morton should be able to find enough swings and misses to make him a viable option at just $6,600.

Elsewhere, there are some easy pitchers to avoid.

With all due respect to the Miami Marlins' Pablo Lopez at $6,900, a matchup with the bash brothers of Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna is a miserable one for anybody.

Granted, Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara was decent Tuesday, even working into the seventh inning, but the team ended the day by smashing three home runs, scoring nine runs overall and getting 16 runners on base through 12 hits and four walks. The scary part is the Braves did that with Freeman going 0-for-4.

Another pitcher to avoid is Jesus Luzardo of the Oakland A's at $7,500 simply because of the situation the team finds itself in. Oakland must pull out all the stops to keep its season alive with the campaign currently on the brink against a Houston team looking for a sweep.

That could mean a quick hook for Luzardo if things are getting even slightly out of hand. This isn't a regular-season game, where teams would opt for longer pitcher leashes to rest bullpens and save them for other days. The A's have to go all out now, and if Luzardo gets himself into a jam, he may not have the chance to see himself out of it.

As it stands, the left-hander went just 3-2 with a 4.12 ERA this season, although he did strike out a batter per inning in his 59 frames. However, he also didn't survive the fourth inning against the Chicago White Sox in the wild-card series, allowing three earned runs and six hits in 3.1 frames.

Of course, a wide range of possibilities exist for every game. Kershaw could put up a dud and hit the showers before the fourth inning.

Lopez and Luzardo could toss gems, as they're clearly capable of doing.

But the guess here is that the safe route is best: Lock in Kershaw everywhere, and strongly consider Morton as your second option if you play on DraftKings, a two-pitcher site. Lopez and Luzardo are the top arms to leave out of consideration.

The Atlanta Braves hope to contend for a World Series title, but first they will have to get past the dangerous Cincinnati Reds.

There's a different format for the 2020 MLB postseason compared to past years with eight teams from each league making the playoffs and everyone competing in a best-of-three series before the divisional round. Even with higher seeds playing all three games at home, there could be a lot more upsets than we are used to seeing.

A small sample size will especially give gamblers and fantasy players an opportunity to cash in on long odds.

Here is what you need to know about the upcoming 2-7 matchup in the National League.

      

Braves vs. Reds

Schedule: Sept 30 - Oct. 2 (Game 1 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

Series Odds (via DraftKings): Braves (-137), Reds (+113)

     

Fantasy Picks

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves

The Braves have one of the deepest lineups in baseball, finishing the year one run behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the most in MLB. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna should also be top fantasy options for those looking to fill out their team.

However, Freddie Freeman is Atlanta's most consistent hitter and the one you want to build a team around.

The first baseman is a NL MVP candidate after leading the league in WAR, per Fangraphs, and finishing the year with a .341 batting average, .462 on-base percentage, 13 home runs and a league-high 23 doubles.

He's everything you could want in a player on the field:

"Plays great defense. Plays every day. Hits for average. Hits for power. Drives in runs. It's just a battle to get through him."

We asked MLB managers, former teammates and opposing players about @Braves star Freddie Freeman's MVP chase.#MVFree pic.twitter.com/DaiPZw2wGH

— Braves On FanDuel Sports Network (@FanDuelSNBraves) September 26, 2020

While some of the attributes don't help fantasy teams, it's still enough to keep you confident in his production going forward.

The only cause for doubt is his recent playoff history—8-for-36 (.222) over the past two postseasons—but he has played well enough this year to expect a turnaround.

       

Ian Anderson, SP, Braves

Max Fried is the Braves' ace, but the team was searching for a second option throughout much of the season while injuries destroyed the rotation.

Ian Anderson finally stepped up, making six starts with a 1.95 ERA. The 21-year-old struck out 41 batters in 32.1 innings, only giving up one home run.

The rookie has suddenly shot up the pitching depth chart just in time for the playoffs. 

"I feel really good about him starting that second game," manager Brian Snitker said Friday, per Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. 

This vote of confidence could help Anderson succeed in his first postseason, especially against a lineup that finished dead last in the majors with a .212 team batting average.

Avoiding Trevor Bauer in Game 1 (plus any other aces in future rounds) also gives him an even better chance at wins. 

     

Raisel Iglesias, RP, Reds

The strength of the Reds is the starting rotation, led by Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray. Bauer is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young, while the three of them together make Cincinnati dangerous in this first-round matchup.

With that said, each player is a scary fantasy pick thanks to the opponent.

The Braves are patient, make good contact and have a lot of players who can change the game with one swing. You could get one start out of Bauer, and it might be a dud.

Raisel Iglesias could have a better chance to keep hitters off base for shorter periods of time out of the bullpen.

The closer produced a 2.74 ERA this season but has been especially dominant as of late, tallying a 0.68 ERA in September. He struck out 16 batters across 13.1 innings during the final month.

With a .037 batting average against in save situations, Iglesias can shut down a game if given the opportunity. It provides fantasy managers with lower risk and solid upside compared to the starters on the roster.

    

Jesse Winker, OF, Reds

Though not a household name nationwide, Jesse Winker was quietly the Reds' top hitter this season.

The outfielder/designated hitter tallied 12 home runs in 2020, just four short of his career high in 113 games last year. He also balanced his .255 batting average with a team-best .388 on-base percentage, giving him an impressive .932 OPS.

The left-hander had reasonable splits this season (.252 average against RHP, .242 against LHP), giving him confidence against a pitcher like Max Fried and others out of the bullpen.

Though Winker's September swoon could be an issue, he continued to get on base and remained a threat for an extra-base hit even when he was at his worst. We've also seen him get hot in a hurry, giving him the opportunity to carry the Reds offense for a game or two. 

It will be a lower cost than some other top hitters, but Winker has a lot of upside going into the playoffs.