Fantasy Baseball

Constructing a winning fantasy baseball squad requires landing late-round and free-agent gems while setting the right lineups and working the trade market. Before worrying about those essential steps, drafters must first nail the early rounds.

It's not as easy as it seems. Just ask anyone who selected Joey Votto, Gary Sanchez or Yu Darvish near the top last year. Even the studs combust more than fantasy players want to believe.

Every winner starts with a strong and stable foundation. How does one go about optimizing the opening rounds? Practice with as many mock drafts as possible to pinpoint a preferred draft strategy.

To get a sense of my general draft approach, let's look at a 12-team mock draft I conducted using FantasyPros' Draft Wizard. I picked against the site's consensus average draft position (ADP) using Yahoo Sports' standard roster spots for a five-by-five rotisserie league. I randomly drew the 10th pick, one of the trickiest spots to navigate in a player pool with no universal locks beyond Mike Trout and Mookie Betts.

Before diving into an ideal draft approach, here are my top-400 rankings, updated as of Monday. 

      

Mock Draft Results

1.10: Ronald Acuna, OF, ATL

2.15: Manny Machado, SS/3B, SD

3.34: Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE

4.39: Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS

5.58: Lorenzo Cain, OF, MIL

6.63: Daniel Murphy, 1B/2B, COL

7.82: Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM

8.87: Nelson Cruz, DH, MIN

9.106: Matt Olson, 1B, OAK

10.111: Jose Leclerc, RP, TEX

11.130: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PHI

12.135: Yu Darvish, SP, CHC 

        

Draft Strategy

Seek Early Stability

There are plenty of opportunities to take chances on upside. Don't do it too early, though.

The beginning rounds are not the time to make boom-or-bust gambits. Take reliable producers, and then shoot for the stars in the middle to late turns. 

Ronald Acuna Jr. admittedly does not fit this advice, but let's make an exception for a 21-year-old superstar who batted .293/.366/.552 with 26 homers and 16 steals in 111 games last season. Alas, I would have celebrated if one of the bankable four-category studs (J.D. Martinez or Nolan Arenado) or Max Scherzer fell to the 10th slot.

Manny Machado, meanwhile, has compiled at least 33 homers in 156 games during each of the last four seasons. A .259 average from 2017 stands out as a clear outlier for the career .282 hitter, so he's still a stable top-15 selection despite signing with the San Diego Padres.

Instead of making a trendy pick in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., just take Anthony Rendon. He may not feel as exciting, but the Washington Nationals third baseman batted .311/.376/.550 with 23 homers in 101 games after returning from an oblique injury. Drafters would be ecstatic if the hotshot rookie delivered those numbers, so why not take the Texan's track record and established role?

Lorenzo Cain is a relatively boring fifth-round pick, but he's an effective one who has batted .300 with at least 10 homers and 25 steals in consecutive years. He should keep batting ahead of Christian Yelich atop the Milwaukee Brewers' lineup.

Daniel Murphy could win another batting title with help from Coors Field, and seriously, what does everyone have against Nelson Cruz? The designated hitter is one of the game's best bets to provide 35-40 homers for a significant discount. 

A steady foundation makes it much easier to gamble on low-risk, high-reward fliers in the final rounds.

         

Grab an Ace

Common convention has preached against spending significant draft capital on starting pitching. It's time to revisit this mindset.

Only 32 starters worked at least 180 innings last year, and just 13 reached 200. Elite workhorses thus deserve more credit as increasingly scarce commodities. 

The extra injury and performance risk has steered drafters away from pitchers in the early rounds. That seems to go hand-in-hand with the earlier point about seeking stability.

However, FanGraphs' Ariel Cohen determined that top-tier aces have returned more value than starters taken at any other point of the draft. 

"The key is that the riskiness of a front-line starter is now no greater than that of a superstar hitter," he wrote. "With fewer 200 IP/200 K pitchers these days, the top pitchers are indeed superstars, and may be treated just as the hitters would."

The talent pool dries out in a hurry, especially with Luis Severino (shoulder) out until May and Clayton Kershaw unlikely to pitch on Opening Day.

Anyone who passes on the top-12 aces will suddenly feel compelled to reach for a second-tier upside arm (Jameson Taillon, Mike Clevinger, Jack Flaherty) or hope Stephen Strasburg or James Paxton somehow stays healthy.

Just pay market price for an ace. This doesn't mean it's imperative to snag Scherzer, Jacob deGrom or Chris Sale in the opening round. Getting the latter two in the early second, however, isn't a terrible idea. (They went ninth and 11th, respectively, in this mock.)

For those who draw an early pick, target Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in the late second or early third. From the 10th slot, I had my choice of a different pair of teammates in Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. 

Either one makes a fine staff anchor, but Carrasco offers more stability after posting a stellar ERA (3.29 and 3.38) and strikeout tally (226 and 231) in each of the last two seasons. After solidifying one headliner, wait a bit before dipping back into the waters.

     

Pay (A Bit) For Saves

Along with securing one top-flight starter, get at least one trustworthy closer with a definitive ninth-inning job.

Those types of relievers are also tougher to find than ever. Only 20 recorded at least 20 saves in 2018. Just 11 reached 30. In 2015, 21 players tallied 30 or more saves.

Just like with aces, this doesn't mean it's imperative to lunge for Edwin Diaz or Blake Treinen. Target the second tier of studs available near or after the top-100 picks.

In this mock, that man was Jose Leclerc. Virtually unhittable in 2018, the righty notched a 1.56 ERA with a .123 opposing batting average and 85 strikeouts in 57.2 innings. He didn't allow a run after July 25:

Jose Leclerc last 21 games of 2018:
21.0 IP, 0 ER
32 strikeouts, 6 walks
Opponents batted .075
Opponents slugged .119

— Jeremy Frank (@MLBRandomStats) March 9, 2019

As a result, the Texas Rangers have named Leclerc their closer and signed him to a four-year extension. He's not too expensive for someone with the skills to make the same seismic leap to stardom as Diaz did last season.

Felipe Vazquez and Brad Hand are also superb closer targets, but both went in the eighth round of this simulation. That's a tad too steep, especially when everyone—as usual—forgot about Cruz. I often end up with Leclerc or Kirby Yates, who went the pick before I snagged Texas' ninth-inning stopper.

After grabbing one high-quality reliever, wait a bit for cheaper speculative grabs. Matt Barnes, Trevor May and Pedro Strop could each transfer elite strikeout rates to the final frame. Even guys such as Seranthony Dominguez and A.J. Minter could deliver value by snatching 10-15 saves in a committee. 

For once, spring's arrival will actually signify the official start of baseball.

As everyone welcomes the spring solstice on March 20, the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics will open the 2019 MLB season with the first of two games in Tokyo.

It's still winter, but spring training is well underway. With the season starting sooner than usual, fantasy baseball drafters can't procrastinate any longer. It's time to dig deep into strategies, sleepers and any slither of data one can find.

Others, however, may simply want to know what this whole fantasy baseball hoopla is about. First off, welcome aboard. Grab a seat and stay a while. The various formats and categories can be daunting at first, especially since this game demands a six-month commitment, but it's a captivating challenge for those who stick around for the whole ride.

Before getting into specific player targets and optimal draft tactics, here's a rundown of some general guidelines for beginners and casual gamers. There's more to it, but this is a good start to acing your draft.

      

Know Your League

The obvious one included in just about every advice article of this nature, it still bears repeating. As fantasy sites become more customizable, it becomes increasingly difficult for any analyst to know your specific settings. 

Drafters thus need to do their own homework.

Before firing up those rankings—making your own is highly recommended—get comfortable with the basics. Is the league scored by rotisserie, head-to-head or points? What are the categories? Is it a snake or auction draft? Are players added via an open waiver wire or a free-agency acquisition bidding (FAAB) system?

You may like Billy Hamilton's chances to steal 50 bags for the Kansas City Royals, but his value plummets in a points league that devalues steals in favor of more offensive outcomes such as OPS. Carlos Santana, on the other hand, becomes way more valuable in a points format with walks or any league that uses on-base percentage.

Roster sizes are also essential to know prior to a draft. A durable starter like Eric Hosmer is far more valuable in a 15-team league with a corner infield slot than a 10-team league without one. If only playing with a four-player bench and one or two IL spots, stashing Yoenis Cespedes isn't worth the hassle.

Those new to fantasy baseball may want to keep it simple by using the standard five-by-five hitting (AVG, R, HR, RBI, SB) and pitching (W, ERA, WHIP, SV, K) categories in a roto or head-to-head mixed league with 10 or 12 teams. After getting more comfortable, branch out to different scoring systems, try out an auction or even a keeper/dynasty league.

       

Don't Follow a Frigid Plan

This is where novices may want access to a foolproof plan guaranteed to win your league. Plenty of other analysts have touted distinct strategies, and plenty of them can work under the right circumstances.

Yet as simplistic as this will sound, no predetermined plan will succeed unless you draft the right players. 

You'll miss out on value by attaching yourself to a concrete strategy. Perhaps you want to avoid the extra volatility associated with picking starting pitchers in the early rounds. That's fine, but be ready to toss that ideology out the window if Gerrit Cole falls to the fourth.

Adjust to your draft, even if it means ditching your early blueprint. Take the value offered, but also alter your valuations when necessary. That could mean drafting some upside pitchers earlier than expected if they're all flying off the board.

No gimmick can beat drafting the best players, so don't leave too much value on the table. 

     

Mix Stability and Upside

Constructing a balanced team is vital, especially in a league where trading is rare or the free-agent market is barren. Balance doesn't only apply to filling every category. Drafters should also assemble the right blend of stability and upside.

Some drafters will take the Talladega Nights approach and chase upside with every selection. While there's no reward for fifth place, such a reckless scheme leaves little margin for error.

Besides, everyone seems to forget about the scene where Ricky Bobby's father explains that "If you ain't first, you're last" makes no sense. Pay leagues typically offer rewards for second and third, and at least there's more pride attached to placing fourth than ninth.

"Boring Is Best" should be your fantasy draft motto.

If you're drafting a bunch of rookies and 'five tool' players and guys who 'broke out' in 2018, YOU'RE DOING IT WRONG!

Boring players have the most value. Boring players win leagues.

I'll pass on Eloy and take McCutchen.

— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) March 11, 2019

On the flip side, it's also a poor strategy to load up on players like Nick Markakis and Jon Lester who offer a steady floor, but lower ceiling. Taking Markakis as a fifth or sixth outfielder, however, isn't a bad idea for someone who already rolled the dice on Wil Myers and Byron Buxton.

Seek stability early, and shoot for the stars late. Adalberto Mondesi could ruin your season if he busts as a fifth-round choice, but you could drop Garrett Hampson with little remorse if he doesn't win a starting job out of spring. 

     

Pay Attention To Spring (But Don't Go Overboard)

Does spring training matter? Yes and no. As long as he's not throwing 88 mph, a healthy Max Scherzer allowing a few runs isn't a big deal. Lewis Brinson's stellar March at most warrants an end-of-draft flier, but it hardly forebodes a second-year breakout.

Pay no mind to a hitter's batting average or spring ERA. However, an aggressive young hitter drawing more walks or a pitcher upping his velocity and/or developing a new pitch merit attention. 

Although the hype machine can often go overboard, it's occasionally wise to pay attention.

In two spring innings, Jordan Hicks has recorded seven strikeouts. (One batter reached on a wild pitch.) The St. Louis Cardinals reliever, who routinely fired triple-digit gas last season, reached 103 mph in Tuesday's outing:

101, 103, 103.

It's March, but Jordan Hicks is already bringing heat. pic.twitter.com/Xy6R5H9UZC

— MLB (@MLB) March 5, 2019

Despite his dominant stuff, Hicks settled for a 3.59 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 77.2 innings last year. He has the skills, however, to take the same leap to stardom as Josh Hader last season. The Athletic's Jayson Stark made that comparison in a piece where Cardinals pitching coach Mike Maddux credited Hicks with wielding "the best fastball I've ever seen."

"There have been a lot of good ones through the years, you know, just based on velocity," Maddux said. "But the combination of the movement with the velocity? That really caught [my] eyes."

This is the time of year where every player is in the best shape of his life and ready to turn a new leaf. It won't always happen, so drafters must take those narratives with a grain of salt.

But when a guy is mowing down batters with a 103 mph heater deemed an all-time great weapon by a pitching coach entering his 38th season, it might be time to move him up draft boards.