Fantasy Baseball 2020: Predictions for Archie Bradley, Top Sleeper Relievers
Apr 27, 2020
Arizona Diamondbacks relief pitcher Archie Bradley points to catcher Alex Avila after the final out of the ninth inning in a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2019, in Phoenix. The Diamondbacks defeated the Cardinals 9-7. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
If you are not able to add one of the top relief pitchers in fantasy baseball drafts, it may be worth waiting until much later in the process to land bullpen help.
Arizona's Archie Bradley is one of a few closers who could provide value as a late-round pick in 10- or 12-team leagues.
Bradley and Tampa Bay's Nick Anderson are intriguing targets because of their strikeout ability, but both players come with some concerns that could turn owners away until the final few rounds.
Alex Colome of the Chicago White Sox sits in a similar position due to his low strikeout total and his team's position in the American League Central.
All three could turn into viable options, but since they aren't as dominant as Kirby Yates or Josh Hader, they don't warrant an early selection.
Predictions for Top Sleeper Relievers
Archie Bradley, Arizona
Bradley has the potential to rise up the reliever rankings if he works on a few issues.
The top concern from a fantasy perspective is the 36 walks he conceded in 71.2 innings in 2019.
Bradley also allowed 28 earned runs, which is a bit too high for a hurler that enters with little margin for error.
If he cleans up those two stat categories, the 27-year-old could be a value pick in the middle-to-late rounds in 12-team leagues.
He is expected to own the closer's job in Arizona and he struck out 87 batters last season. That was his highest punch out total since shifting to the bullpen in 2017.
If you wait to land a closer later in the draft, Bradley's punch out power could make him the best selection from the third tier of relievers.
Prediction: 13th round.
Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay
PORT CHARLOTTE, FLORIDA - MARCH 01: Nick Anderson #70 of the Tampa Bay Rays delivers a pitch during the spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at Charlotte Sports Park on March 01, 2020 in Port Charlotte, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Imag
Anderson is not guaranteed to receive every save opportunity for the Tampa Bay Rays, but his power on the mound makes him a candidate for a middle-to-late-round selection.
Anderson fanned 110 batters in 65 innings during his time with the Miami Marlins and Rays in 2019.
Even if he does not record a high save total, the 29-year-old carries value because of his strikeout ability.
Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado combined for 15 saves last season, and the two could take save opportunities away from Anderson throughout the campaign.
Anderson holds an edge in strikeouts over his competition, as Castillo fanned 81 batters in 68.2 innings and Alvarado struck out 39 opponents in 35 games.
The right-handed hurler excelled against right-handed batters by holding them to a .183 batting average and .234 on-base percentage.
Left-handed hitters had more success against Anderson with a .250 batting average, but if he can improve those numbers a bit, it may be hard for the Rays to give Castillo and Alvarado more save opportunities.
Anderson's strikeout total and success rate against right-handed batters make him an intriguing late-round selection, but until he permanently owns the closer role, he can't be selected higher.
Prediction: 14th round.
Alex Colome, Chicago White Sox
Colome produced 30 saves in his first year closing for the Chicago White Sox.
That was his highest save total since 2017, when he reeled off 47 saves for the Rays.
His 2.80 ERA is decent for a ninth-inning man, but he only struck out 55 batters in his 61 innings on the mound.
The lack of strikeouts, his 2.39 strikeout-to-walk ratio and the unknown of how much the White Sox will improve limit Colome to a late-round pick.
Chicago's young core of Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert could make it an exciting team to watch, but it still resides in a division with the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins.
If the White Sox show signs they can improve their 72-89 record from 2019, Colome could become more valuable as the season progresses.
Even then he may limited from a fantasy perspective because he has not been overpowering in the strikeout department.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: Projections, Rankings for Kirby Yates, Top Relievers
Apr 26, 2020
San Diego Padres relief pitcher Kirby Yates throws in the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Monday, Aug. 19, 2019, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
Kirby Yates and Josh Hader have established themselves as the most coveted relief pitchers in fantasy baseball.
The National League relievers should follow each other off draft boards as owners look to add bullpen strength to their pitching rotations. Yates and Hader both have impressive qualities, and the decision between the two could come down to which statistical categories you value most.
After those two go off the board, Roberto Osuna could headline the second tier of relief selections that should also include Aroldis Chapman, Liam Hendriks and Kenley Jansen.
Relief Pitcher Rankings
1. Kirby Yates, San Diego
2. Josh Hader, Milwaukee
3. Roberto Osuna, Houston
4. Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
5. Liam Hendriks, Oakland
6. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
7. Brad Hand, Cleveland
8. Ken Giles, Toronto
9. Taylor Rogers, Minnesota
10. Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Kirby Yates, San Diego
In his first full season as a closer for the San Diego Padres, Yates produced 41 saves and a 1.19 ERA, both of which were career bests.
Yates has a case to be the first reliever selected in fantasy drafts because he has consistently produced low numbers in a high-pressure role. The 33-year-old struck out 101 batters over 60 appearances while allowing eight earned runs.
If he replicates those totals, Yates will be one of the most reliable pitchers, starter or reliever, on any fantasy roster.
San Diego is not expected to top the National League West, but it should improve on a 70-92 record, with its young core projected to develop further. If that occurs, Yates could once again lead the majors in saves and may even move up his total a few saves from a year ago.
Projection: Sixth round.
Josh Hader, Milwaukee
Hader finished four saves behind Yates in 2019, but he beat the Padres closer in strikeouts with 138.
It marked the second consecutive campaign in which the left-handed pitcher produced over 135 punchouts.
While his strikeout numbers could entice owners to take him as the first reliever, Hader did concede 15 home runs in his 61 appearances. Hader's 2.62 ERA and 22 earned runs allowed were much higher than the minuscule totals Yates put up.
In 12-team leagues, the 26-year-old could go as early as the fourth or fifth round if someone feels they could not grab him later on, and the same could be said about Yates.
The more logical spot for Hader and Yates is around No. 75 after owners have stocked up on starting pitchers and outfielders who carry more value.
If you choose to wait longer for a reliever, the southpaw likely will not be there because of his high strikeout total.
Projection: Sixth round.
Roberto Osuna, Houston
Osuna could be in the most ideal situation of any reliever because of the Houston Astros' expected position.
If Houston remains on top of the American League West, Osuna should be in plenty of save situations.
The 25-year-old earned 38 saves in 2019, which marked his third 30-save campaign and first with the Astros. He is projected to drop a bit further than Hader and Yates because of a higher ERA and lower strikeout total.
Osuna produced 73 strikeouts in 66 appearances while recording a 2.63 ERA.
A seventh- or eighth-round selection should secure Osuna, who could be a great complement to starters chosen in the opening rounds.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: SP Rankings, Top Prospects and Sleepers
Apr 25, 2020
Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks warms up during the second inning of a spring training baseball game against the Cleveland Indians Saturday, March 7, 2020, in Goodyear, Ariz. The Cubs defeated the Indians 8-5. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
In baseball, the team with the best starting rotation is often the one hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy come October.
The 2019 Washington Nationals are a perfect example of this notion.
Washington rode their starters throughout the playoffs. World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg dominated all three rounds, and Max Scherzer had his moments as well. The Nats also got sensational performances from Anibal Sanchez, while left-hander Patrick Corbin was used as both a starter and a reliever.
Fantasy baseball often has a similar formula for success. Owners who stock their rosters with starters who routinely go deep into ballgames and get their strikeouts usually dominate the pitching categories, which usually make up half of all league configurations.
It is never a bad idea to prioritize starting pitching, which is why starters make up four of the top-10 spots in ESPN's Top 300 rankings.
Here are some of the top starters, as well as the best sleepers to watch on draft day.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs (Pos. Ranking 21, Ovr. Ranking 85)
Hendricks has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball since he debuted in 2014. In fact, he ranks 15th among all starting pitchers in fWAR, per FanGraphs.
The 30-year-old had another solid campaign in 2019, going 11-10 with a 3.46 ERA in 30 starts. Despite the slight year-over-year increase in ERA, Hendricks actually had a better ERA+ (129) while also lowering his walk rate and increasing the amount of strikeouts per nine innings.
The argument can be made Hendricks' steadiness and previous performance make him the ace of the Cubs staff, though fantasy owners are sleeping on Hendricks as far as potential aces go. According to Fantasy Pros, Hendricks' average draft position (ADP) ranks 40th among starting pitchers.
Hendricks is a model of consistency on the bump, and he churns out quality starts. The strikeout rate might not be as high as some owners would like, but Hendricks (at 30 years old) is right in the middle of his prime and delivers good numbers on a yearly basis. He is a safe bet.
David Price, Los Angeles Dodgers (Pos. Ranking 68, Ovr. Ranking 240)
Price's best years are certainly behind him. Still, there are reasons to be excited about the guy he could be with the Dodgers.
The veteran left-hander finally gets out of hitter-friendly Fenway Park in favor of Dodger Stadium, which ranked as the 24th run-scoring environment in baseball, according to ESPN's Park Factor.
Moreover, Price was actually having an excellent 2019 before injuries ruined his season. The 34-year-old went 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA and a .648 OPS against in the first half of the year, but he eventually succumbed to a wrist injury and was officially shut down in September. Even with the injury, Price still posted 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings.
The Dodgers lineup should provide ample run support for Price, who is also able to move away from a Boston environment that seemed downright toxic at times.
Price's ADP is 41st among all starters, but his ranking on ESPN is clearly much lower. Regardless, Price might establish himself as one of the best No. 3 starters in baseball behind Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw.
Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox (Pos. Ranking NR, Ovr. Ranking NR)
Kopech is not even listed on ESPN's Top 125 starting pitchers, which is why drafters should be vigilant in looking for him in the later rounds.
The 23-year-old was called up to the majors in 2018, making five starts before he eventually was shut down and had Tommy John surgery (which forced him to miss all of 2019).
Kopech has plenty of stuff: a fastball that can consistently reaches the upper-90s and a hard-biting breaking ball. He also looked impressive in his lone outing of the spring, tossing a scoreless inning and pitching with good velocity and command.
Naturally, Kopech would have had to earn his spot out of camp. However, he should have every chance to compete for the last spot in Chicago's rotation.
Kopech's ADP is 77 among starters, so he is essentially an afterthought. But for those owners who have the majority of their rotation figured out, Kopech could be a guy with major upside.
All stats obtained via Baseball Reference and all fantasy information via ESPN, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: Breaking Down Oscar Mercado, Top Outfield Sleepers
Apr 24, 2020
Cleveland Indians' Oscar Mercado looks up after hitting a solo home run during the first inning of the team's baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2019, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)
Cleveland Indians outfielder Oscar Mercado will be one of a few young players to watch as fantasy baseball drafts hit the later rounds.
The 25-year-old turned in an impressive rookie campaign in the American League, but now he needs to prove he can be a consistent force in the Cleveland lineup.
Houston's Kyle Tucker is another emerging option to consider as an outfield sleeper, but his major league resume does not have much on it yet.
He has played parts of the last two seasons with Houston but is yet to showcase the power he displayed in the minor leagues.
The alternative to the young options is going after veteran outfielders to round out depth. Milwaukee's Avisail Garcia fits that category as someone who can provide power from a deeper draft spot.
Top Outfield Sleepers
Oscar Mercado, Cleveland
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 24: Oscar Mercado #35 of the Cleveland Indians hits a three run home run in the 5th inning against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 24, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Ima
Mercado inserted himself into the Cleveland lineup in May and made a decent fantasy impact with 15 home runs, 54 RBI and a .269 batting average.
However, he lacked consistent power at the plate outside of a three-game home run streak from September 20-22.
Mercado still carries value in the middle-to-late rounds because he displayed an ability to get on base throughout his rookie season. He produced 10 games with three or more hits and finished with 118 base knocks from 482 plate appearances over 115 contests.
He should also benefit from having power hitters strewn across the top of Cleveland's order.
Opposing pitchers could be more willing to test Mercado in certain situations instead of risking it against Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.
With power beneath him in the order, Mercado's runs total could increase from 70.
Since he does not have overwhelming power, he won't be a high pick, but he can provide depth in most stat categories.
Kyle Tucker, Houston
Tucker entered the majors with some hype, but he hasn't cracked a consistent spot in Houston's lineup yet.
The 23-year-old hit four home runs and earned 11 RBI over 22 contests last season.
He should experience an uptick in appearances, but he still has to compete with George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick for playing time.
If Tucker flashes signs of increased power at the start of the season, he could mix in at designated hitter with Yordan Alvarez as well.
He is worth a late-round flier because of the home run totals he produced in the minor leagues. He had 34 at Triple-A Round Rock in 2019. If he conveys that form into 2020, he could be a terrific asset for the Astros to use in some capacity.
Since there are still too many unknowns about his major league play, Tucker should still be viewed as a low-risk, high-reward pick in the final few rounds.
Avisail Garcia, Milwaukee
Garcia is more of a known quantity, as he increased his home run total in each of the last three seasons.
After hitting 20 long balls for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019, he will be a part of the Milwaukee Brewers lineup in 2020.
Hitting behind Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura should come with its advantages. If Milwaukee's power hitters reach base, there should be plenty of RBI opportunities for Garcia further down the order.
In two of the last three seasons, the 28-year-old recorded his career-high and second-best RBI totals.
If Garcia remains consistent with those numbers or continues an upward trajectory in the power categories, he could be a solid fourth or fifth outfielder.
In the absolute best-case scenario, Garcia could be a fringe third outfielder in your squad, but he will likely be a depth option who could provide more power than others.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: Breaking Down Kevin Newman, Top Sleeper Infielders
Apr 22, 2020
Pittsburgh Pirates' Kevin Newman during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays Monday, March 2, 2020, in Dunedin, Fla. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
Filling out an infield with well-rounded players is a crucial facet to any successful fantasy baseball season.
Most leagues have the four spots for the four designated infield positions, plus two more slots for a middle infielder and corner infielder. Throw in some flexibility in terms of utility players, and any given roster might be stacked with infielders.
Given outfield players tend to dominate the first few rounds of the draft as well as a relative shortage of premium infielders (especially middle infielders), it is imperative for owners to find those undervalued players who are versatile and can stuff a number of different categories.
Take Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Kevin Newman, for example. He is a less-heralded player on a woeful Pittsburgh team, yet there is reason to suggest he could be a fantasy star in 2020, especially given his current average draft position (ADP).
Here's more on Newman, as well as a couple other sleeper infielders who might help to make the difference in any given fantasy league.
Top Sleeper Infielders
Kevin Newman, Pittsburgh Pirates
Newman was a menace in his first full season with the Pirates. Aside from his hit tool, he has immense value as an infielder who can play multiple positions, hit for some power and steal bases.
The 26-year-old slashed .308/.353/.446 with 12 homers, six triples and 16 stolen bases, and he also posted a 111 OPS+, according to Baseball Reference.
It is worth noting there are reasons to be slightly wary of Newman's success. He ranked in the bottom five percent of the league in terms of average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. However, he does not strike out often and posted an 87 percent contact rate, according to FanGraphs.
Plus, Newman is going pretty low on draft boards. According to Fantasy Pros, his ADP is 208, which is well below the likes of Elvis Andrus, Didi Gregorius and Garrett Hampson at the shortstop spot.
Considering Newman's bWAR was higher than each of the aforementioned players, it seems he is being undervalued. He can play both middle infield spots and the hot corner, and he could put up numbers for a Pirates team that will desperately need his contributions.
Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
Dansby Swanson is sort of the inverse of Newman: He doesn't have the counting stats, but the advanced analytics suggest he is on the verge of a breakout year.
While Dansby had a lower OPS than Newman this past season, he did hit more homers (17) and posted double-digit steals for the second consecutive year. More importantly, he should be the beneficiary of regression to the mean.
The 26-year-old posted the highest average exit velocity of his career in 2019, while his barrel and hard hit percentages also saw significant increases. In fact, he had the same expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) as Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, per Baseball Savant.
He is the next shortstop after Newman in terms of ADP, but he actually comes a whopping 50 spots later (258).
Swanson has made big strides in each of his two last seasons. With a little more luck, he might even be on the cusp of superstardom. The upside is enough, at the very least, to give him a look.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto is not the same guy who finished second in the National League Most Valuable Player voting in 2017. Still, there are reasons to believe he is due for a bounce-back year in 2020.
The Reds sought to add some pop to the lineup this past winter, signing Nicholas Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama in free agency. Both guys should provide added protection for the 36-year-old, which is all the more dangerous considering he is still among the most vigilant and disciplined hitters in baseball.
Despite the relatively quiet counting stats last year, Votto actually posted his highest hard hit percentage and average exit velocity in three seasons, per Baseball Savant. He still has gap-to-gap power and is one of the toughest outs in the game, so there is no reason the advanced numbers cannot translate to more success.
Votto's current ADP is 228, and he ranks behind the likes of Ryan McMahon and Luke Voit. Considering he is an intense competitor hoping to propel the Reds into the playoffs, he might be primed for a return to form.
In that case, he might be one of the biggest steals of the year.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: Closer Rankings, Top Prospects and Sleepers
Apr 19, 2020
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ken Giles throws against the San Francisco Giants during the ninth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Tuesday, May 14, 2019. The Blue Jays won 7-3. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
The role of a "closer" is perhaps not quite as cut and dried in modern baseball.
In the past, elite pitchers held down the ninth inning. From Rollie Fingers and Dennis Eckersley to Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera, the best closers had a certain aura and gravitas every time they entered the game.
There are certainly still some marquee closers in the game. Aroldis Chapman and Kirby Yates are among those who still possess some extra moxie. However, with the increased usage of "openers" and "super relievers" (think Josh Hader or 2016 Andrew Miller), the notion of having a lockdown "closer" at the back end of the bullpen is less of a formality.
Yet, having an elite closer in fantasy baseball can anchor a pitching staff for team owners.
Most fantasy leagues place a premium on the "saves" category, and some alternate between strikeouts and strikeouts per nine inning. Regardless, having a power pitcher who routinely converts save chances can sometimes swing the balance between winning and losing an individual matchup, or making your way up a rotisserie leaderboard.
With all these things in mind, let's take a look at some potential sleeper closers to look out for as your navigate the waters of a fantasy baseball draft.
Top 10 Relief Pitchers (does not include SP eligibles; via ESPN):
1. Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
2. Roberto Osuna, Houston Astros
3. Liam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics
4. Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays
5. Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres
6. Taylor Rogers, Minnesota Twins
7. Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals
9. Giovanny Gallegos, St. Louis Cardinals
10. Will Smith, Atlanta Braves
Sleeper Closers:
Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays (Pos. Rank 32, Ovr. Rank 299)
The mercurial Giles had a huge bounce-back season for the Blue Jays.
Giles converted 23-of-24 save opportunities, finishing the 2019 season with a 1.87 ERA and a career-high 14.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
Now that Toronto retooled their starting pitching staff in the hopes of being more competitive in 2020, Giles should see more save opportunities. Most importantly, he has rediscovered some of the tendencies that made him successful with the Houston Astros.
Giles previously had his best success when he was able to use his wipeout slider in any count. However, he threw that pitch just 40 percent of the time in 2018, and opponents teed off on his four-seam fastball. But Giles adjusted in 2019, throwing both his slider and four-seamer 49 percent of the time, per Baseball Savant.
By keeping opposing hitters off balance, Giles' fastball had the highest whiff rate to date despite a decrease in velocity and spin rate. Meanwhile, hitters batted just .124 with an expected slugging percentage of .166 against the slider, per Baseball Savant.
Giles has the tools to reestablish himself as an elite closer with strikeout stuff. Plus, he is still just 29 years old. Considering his ranking, fantasy owners would be wise to keep tabs Giles.
Will Harris, Washington Nationals (Pos. Rank 56, Ovr. Rank NR)
Sean Doolittle might be the closer for the defending champion Washington Nationals on Opening Day, but there is reason to believe Harris will have every opportunity to take the ninth inning.
Harris had a tremendous season for the Astros in 2019, posting a 1.50 ERA and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in an even 60 innings of work. He also had a 0.933 WHIP and traditionally allows weak contact. Harris ranked in the top six percent of all pitchers in terms of average exit velocity against in 2018, per Baseball Savant.
The other reason Harris figures to be that much more valuable in the later innings is his reverse-platoon splits. Left-handed hitters had a minuscule .490 OPS against Harris, per Baseball Reference. There is a reason that enhances Harris' value.
MLB instituted a three-batter minimum for the 2020 season. Gone are the days of a manager bringing in a reliever merely to get one batter out then pulling him immediately thereafter.
Thus, it might make more sense for Harris to have a flexible role in Washington's bullpen, and that might include pitching at the end of games. Right-handed hitters torched Doolittle last season, but Harris' effectiveness against both lefties and righties makes him invaluable.
Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees (Pos. Rank 24, Ovr. Rank 239)
It is pretty hard to sleep on Chapman.
The imposing left-hander paces all relievers in fWAR since 2011, according to FanGraphs, and he ranks third in saves during that span.
Chapman is coming off another dominant season in which he notched 37 saves to go along with a 2.21 ERA and 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Yet, he is pretty low on ESPN's rankings.
In fact, Oakland Athletics rookie Jesus Luzardo ranks above Chapman, and Los Angeles Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen ranks well ahead of Chapman despite the fact Jansen is coming off a pair of rather mediocre seasons.
Thus, while it might be hard to consider Chapman a legitimate "sleeper" because of his past success and consistency in recent seasons, perhaps some fantasy owners will overlook the veteran in favor of other arms.
Do not be that owner. Chapman figures to have immense value, wherever he might be drafted.
All stats obtained via Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted. All fantasy information via ESPN.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: Most Overrated, Underrated Draft Options at Key Positions
Apr 18, 2020
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 26: Kenley Jansen #74 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a pitch during the first inning of a spring training game against the Los Angeles Angels at Camelback Ranch on February 26, 2020 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
A delayed start to the MLB season means more time to research and prepare for your fantasy baseball draft.
It's a good thing too, because nailing the draft is crucial to sustained success. Every round comes with serious pitfalls and chances at glory. If you took a chance on the potential of Ketel Marte last season, you know all about that glory. If you drafted Jose Ramirez in the first round last season, well, you probably had a bad time.
But 2020 has arrived, and it's time for most fantasy managers to start anew. Looking across the Yahoo average draft positions, there are definitely some values to be had.
Below is a look at some of the key positions you'll need to nail to be competitive in 2020, with an overrated option and underrated option for each. It's important to note that overrated doesn't mean they will be an abject failure. It only means they aren't likely to live up to their draft spot.
Likewise, an underrated prospect isn't necessarily going to light the world on fire. They should just outperform their current draft position.
Starting Pitcher
Choosing when to target your ace can be tricky. The elite options start coming off the board in the first round, but that means you miss out on adding an elite hitter.
Whether you like to grab one of these true aces or not, it's key to know what you are getting yourself into. Take an overrated option, and your team ERA, WHIP and strikeout numbers can go in the tank. Conversely, waiting too long could see your pitching numbers suffer.
Nail this pick and you could have more draft capital to spend beefing up your hitting while still getting good production from your pitcher.
At this point, Bumgarner is likely drafted higher than he should be based on name value alone. The four-time All-Star is moving on from the San Francisco Giants after 11 seasons with the club, and the move from the confines of Oracle Park should come with a fairly large dip in value.
Bumgarner's home and away splits last season tell a story of a pitcher who received a big boost from his pitcher-friendly park. At home, he was 6-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. When he pitched on the road, he sported a 3-7 record with a 5.29 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP.
Now, Bumgarner goes from pitching in the second-most pitcher-friendly park to the third-worst in the league, per FantasyPros. According to FanGraphs, Bumgarner's ground-ball rate was a career-low 38 percent. In a new hitter-friendly park, that rate could have a higher impact on his bottom line.
The change in scenery is a concern for Bumgarner, but so is his health. While the 30-year-old was able to remain healthy and make a career-high 34 starts last season, he only made 38 starts combined in the two previous seasons.
Let someone else take the risk on Bumgarner continuing his current numbers and health in his age-30 season in a new park.
David Price is going one round after Bumgarner on average but offers a lot more upside. Mookie Betts was the headliner of the Dodgers' offseason acquisitions, but Price is expected to be another Boston transplant to play a large role.
First, let's address the downside of Price. He's an obvious injury risk. He only made 22 starts for the Red Sox last season as he dealt with an injured wrist. At 34 years old, his age and injury history pose the same risk as Bumgarner.
The numbers provide optimism for a bounce-back season, though. Despite the injury, he posted a career-high 10.73 strikeouts per nine innings last season and had a 3.24 ERA in the first half before injuries wrecked his season.
Now Price gets to move cross-country to Dodger Stadium—the seventh-most pitcher-friendly ballpark. He'll obviously be the beneficiary of strong run support too with the Dodgers expected to have the best lineup in baseball.
Price comes with risk. Most pitchers do in this range of the draft, but he also comes with tremendous upside, as a healthy version of the southpaw in Los Angeles could offer big dividends in strikeouts, ERA and wins.
Relief Pitcher
Getting good value out of relief pitchers can be a league-winner in a traditional 5x5 roto setup. While saves are the obvious target here, adding a quality setup man who can eventually get you some saves while propping up your combined ERA and WHIP is a strong strategy. The pitfall to avoid is overpaying for saves when many closer situations are volatile and can often be found late in the draft or on the waiver wire.
Overrated: Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 95.3, 8th round
It's easy to understand why Jansen is generally the fifth closer off the board. He's been entrenched as the Dodgers closer for years, and they figure to be one of the best teams in the league. It's not hard to envision him leading the league in saves next season.
But there's still a level of risk that isn't reflected by his average draft position: Jansen's ERA of 3.71 wasn't great when compared to others among the league leaders in saves last season.
Also a concern is Jansen's dwindling velocity. His cutter was down 1.3 mph from his career average, while his sinker and slider are also seeing diminishing returns, per FanGraphs.
If Jansen maintains the closer role, he's obviously going to be a value in saves and strikeouts, but the relatively high ERA and potential for declining stuff is cause for concern at his current price.
Add in the fact that the Dodgers have a capable closer-in-waiting in Blake Treinen, and there's too much risk for Jansen where he's being drafted.
Underrated: Will Smith, Atlanta Braves
ADP: 177.7, 15th round
It's never a bad idea to grab a middle reliever who will likely get save opportunities and help out your ERA and WHIP in the process.
That's exactly what you're getting with Will Smith. The Braves' new setup man comes from San Francisco, where he was the closer last season and racked up 34 saves. Don't expect that total again this season, but there's a good chance he ends up becoming the closer at some point, and he gives you value in the interim.
Mark Melancon is expected to be the closer, but he had a lower strikeout rate, higher ERA, higher WHIP and lower save conversion percentage than Smith last season. There's a reason Melancon's ADP is one round lower than Smith's.
Everyone knows Smith is the better pitcher, and if the Braves figure that out sooner rather than later, Smith could be an absolute steal.
Catcher
Catcher is always a difficult position to navigate. The lack of productive options creates a positional scarcity akin to tight ends in fantasy football. Is it worth it to take one of the elite options early or best to just wait on a high-upside option later?
That's a key question that must be navigated. Finding a steal at the position could create a big advantage, while overpaying for a disappointing option is the kind of pick that dooms a team.
Overrated: Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 115, 10th round
Willson Contreras is the fourth catcher coming off draft boards. That's understandable after his 2019 campaign saw him hit a career-high 24 home runs with 64 RBI while batting .264.
However, betting on him to repeat it could be a disappointing wager, primarily because the Cubs have another catcher in Victor Caratini who figures to steal some of Contreras' opportunities.
While FantasyPros has no problem predicting that Contreras will still reach 20 home runs, 50 runs and 60 RBI, FanGraphs' outlook is a little less rosy (17 home runs, 50 runs and 58 RBI).
While Contreras' track record as one of the few catchers with legit power is tempting, you're better off waiting on a less-proven catcher with upside later in the draft.
Underrated: Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
It's hard to call a six-time All-Star underrated, but Perez is being drafted as the seventh catcher, and four rounds after Contreras, despite a top-three ceiling.
Perez missed all of last season with UCL damage and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, but drafting a catcher in later rounds is about upside.
The FanGraphs projection is much higher on Perez (27 home runs, 78 RBI and a .250 batting average). Certainly, the delayed start to the season should be helpful for Perez, who will now get additional time to get healthy before the beginning of the season.
In a position where anyone with offensive potential tends to get over-drafted, Perez is the rare option with proven ability if you're willing to take the risk.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: Breaking Down Jose Urquidy, Top Sleeper Pitching Targets
Apr 17, 2020
Houston Astros starting pitcher Jose Urquidy throws against the Washington Nationals during the first inning of Game 4 of the baseball World Series Saturday, Oct. 26, 2019, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
The hunt for pitchers during the final stage of fantasy baseball drafts can be one of the more taxing tasks of the whole process.
A handful of hurlers at the back end of starting rotations will be available, and you have to sift through their weaknesses to find a potential late-round steal or two.
MLB experience, team performance and the ballparks the pitchers call home are among the factors to consider when trying to find a sleeper pick for your rotation.
Houston's Jose Urquidy and Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller displayed glimpses of talent after being called up in 2019, but they need to flash more consistency to climb the positional rankings in 2020.
Colorado's Jon Gray has produced consistent numbers in a few stat categories, but he comes with the risk of pitching at Coors Field.
Urquidy, Keller and Gray and many others will be low-risk, high-reward fantasy selections. If they shine, they will be viewed as draft steals, but they could also flounder and be cut early into the campaign.
Top Sleeper Pitcher Targets
Jose Urquidy, Houston
Urquidy was brought up from the minors as an extra arm to aid the Astros' postseason quest, and his challenge now is to shine in the majors for a full season.
The 24-year-old was not overly impressive in nine regular-season starts, as he earned a 3.95 ERA and struck out 40 batters over 41 innings.
Since he hasn't proved himself as a quality MLB starter yet, there will be hesitancy to take him at any juncture of a fantasy draft. But if Urquidy produces some solid outings on the mound, he could be in better shape to profit in the win column since Houston's offense is one of the best in the league.
Working closely with Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke should also help Urquidy develop his approach on the mound.
The Astros showed last season that they trust the right-handed hurler in big moments, as he appeared in four postseason games. If he can develop into a solid back-end starter in their rotation, he has the potential to help fantasy rosters.
Due to his status on a contending team, it makes sense to chance on him in the latter rounds over some pitchers who may struggle to get run support.
While those numbers could shift you away from the 24-year-old, he is worth considering in the final few rounds because of his strikeout capabilities.
Keller fanned 65 batters over 48 innings, and if he can improve other facets of his game, he could turn into a decent addition at the back end of fantasy rotations.
It makes sense if some owners are hesitant to nab a volatile pitcher for a Pittsburgh team that isn't projected to win many games, but others could find the slightest bit of worth because of his fastball.
In the best-case scenario, Keller turns into an above-average fantasy contributor who provides support in weeks where he starts two games.
But until he proves he can keep his ERA down on a consistent basis, he is only worth a late-round flier.
Jon Gray, Colorado
DENVER, CO - AUGUST 16: Jon Gray #55 of the Colorado Rockies pitches against the Miami Marlins in the first inning of a game at Coors Field on August 16, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
In most cases, four straight 10-win seasons would make a player an intriguing fantasy option.
Since Gray pitches at Coors Field, there is more risk involved, as he has not produced an ERA under 3.65 in his five-year career.
You could make the case the 28-year-old has more value than other late-round pitchers because he has shown an ability to work past the high ERA totals and win games.
Gray carries the most value with strikeouts since he has recorded at least 150 in three of his last four campaigns.
His consistency in the win column could persuade some owners to line him up as a back-end starter, and if he finds a way to drop the ERA and manage the conditions in Colorado, he could shine as a value pick.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: Ranking Nolan Arenado, Trea Turner, Top Infielders
Apr 11, 2020
Colorado Rockies' Nolan Arenado follows through on a swing during the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday, March 10, 2020, in Scottsdale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
The left side of the infield should be one of the first positional targets in fantasy baseball drafts.
A majority of the top infielders play either third base or shortstop, and in order to secure a premier player at those positions, they should be targeted in the first three rounds.
Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado and Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner are among the top infielders available.
Arenado and teammate Trevor Story could be one of two left-sided infield pairs chosen early in drafts, with the Cleveland Indians duo of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez the other.
Fantasy Baseball Infield Rankings
1. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado
2. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland
3. Trea Turner, SS, Washington
4. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado
5. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta
6. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland
7. Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston
8. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
9. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego
10. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado
Arenado is a lock to land somewhere in the first round because of the consistent power he has displayed for the Rockies.
Since 2015, the third baseman has recorded at least 35 home runs and 110 RBI in every season.
He is coming off a 41-homer, 118 RBI campaign in 2019 in which he earned career highs in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS.
In 12-team leagues, Arenado would be a perfect pickup at the back end of the first round once the top outfielders and Gerrit Cole are chosen.
The 28-year-old could also land in that area in a 10-team league since a strong case can be made that he is a top 10 fantasy player.
Arenado has benefited from playing at Coors Field, as he hit .351 with 21 home runs and 70 RBI there in 2019, but he has performed well on the road, too.
Although his batting average dipped to .277 on the road, Arenado produced 20 home runs on his travels in eight fewer plate appearances.
Arenado should also benefit from the strong lineup around him that includes Story, Daniel Murphy and Charlie Blackmon.
With threats in all parts of the Colorado order, it will be hard for opposing hurlers to pitch around Arenado.
Trea Turner, SS, Washington
What Turner lacks in power he makes up for with his speed and on-base percentage.
Turner has stolen at least 35 bases in each of the previous three seasons and produced the second-best on-base percentage of his career in 2019.
The 26-year-old has four straight seasons with 100 hits and was four runs away from crossing home plate over 100 times two years running.
Since he doesn't possess the power of other top infielders, Turner may drop into the start of the second round.
In that situation, he could be combined with Arenado, or a premier pitcher or outfielder, like teammates Max Scherzer and Juan Soto.
If Turner hits in front of Soto for a majority of the season, his runs total will remain high since Soto is coming off a season with 110 RBI.
Turner will likely hit fewer than 20 home runs again, but if he makes up for that in other stat categories, he will be well worth the high selection.
Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland
The power alternative to Turner at shortstop is Lindor, who has been a home-run hitting machine for the Indians.
The 26-year-old has hit 30 home runs in each of the last three campaigns and has consistently reached base throughout his career.
Lindor put up 100 hits in each of his five seasons with the Indians, and after scoring 99 times in 2016 and 2017, he produced back-to-back 100-run years.
If that was not enough to persuade you in his direction, he also has two straight seasons with 20 stolen bases and an OPS over .850.
As long as he continues to receive support from Ramirez and others further down the order, Lindor should have another strong season across all stat categories.
Arenado has a slight edge over Lindor when it comes to being the top infielder off the board because he has more home-run power.
The Cleveland shortstop should be chosen soon after Arenado as either a late-first- or early-second-round pick.
After choosing Lindor, you could look at Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon or Rafael Devers to fill out the left side of the infield.
Fantasy Baseball 2020: Gavin Lux, Luis Robert and Top Prospects to Target
Apr 10, 2020
Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux during the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2020, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
As Major League Baseball continues to explore ways to play this season, the fantasy world continues to roll on with the hope that we will eventually see games on the field in some way, shape or form.
One hallmark of recent fantasy drafts has been the value of rookies. Teams have gotten more aggressive promoting their top prospects, aside from the occasional bits of service-time shenanigans. There's certainly more value for clubs because first-year players are among the lowest-paid in the sport.
For fantasy players, though, the benefit can be the difference between winning and losing a championship. Last year, for instance, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso was ranked outside of ESPN top 50 fantasy stars to start the season before winning NL Rookie of the Year with an MLB-high 53 home runs.
Looking at the crop of prospects in 2020 who have impact potential, it's another strong group with two obvious standouts because it appears they will start the year in MLB.
Here are the best rookies to target in your fantasy draft for this season.
Gavin Lux, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
A natural shortstop, Gavin Lux began his MLB tenure with the Los Angeles Dodgers at second base because Corey Seager is still with the team.
In his first exposure to the big leagues, Lux hit .240/.305/.400 with two homers and nine RBI in 23 regular-season games last September. It wasn't the immediate breakout showing some prospects have, but it's in no way indicative of the immense talent he possesses.
The Dodgers are clearly aware of Lux's potential, based on reports throughout the offseason they refused to include him in trade talks for established All-Stars like Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor.
With Lux in line to start this season as Los Angeles' every day second baseman, he will be given every opportunity to become the next star for an organization that has done a fantastic job developing players over the past five years.
Per The Athletic's Keith Law, who has Lux ranked as the No. 4 overall prospect in 2020, the 22-year-old has "proven to be a much more disciplined hitter" than expected as he's gone through the minors over the past three seasons: "Out of all minor-league hitters who had at least 25 homers in 2019, he had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate at 19.5 percent, behind two Triple-A guys at least six years his senior. "
Lux has hit .305/.383/.483 with 48 homers, 193 RBI with 202 walks in 396 games in the minors. ZiPS projects the Wisconsin native to hit .267/.331/.456 with 21 homers, 79 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 2020.
If those numbers prove true, Lux would end this season with more homers than Tommy La Stella (16) and Cavan Biggio (16) and RBI as a second baseman than Jose Alutve (74) and Whit Merrifield (74) had in 2019.
The Chicago White Sox seemingly ended any suspense that Robert would begin this season in the big leagues when they signed him to a six-year, $50 million contract in January.
Robert, 22, has been on the radar for prospect junkies since signing with the White Sox after defecting from Cuba in 2017. His $26 million signing bonus was the second-richest ever for an international free agent, trailing only Yoan Moncada's $31.5 million deal from the Boston Red Sox two years earlier.
In two full minor league seasons, Robert can stake a claim as the best pure hitting prospect. The Cuban sensation hit .328/.376/.624 with 32 homers, 92 RBI, 36 stolen bases in 122 games across three levels last year.
MLB.com has Robert ranked as the No. 3 overall prospect this season:
"Few players anywhere can match his electric combination of bat speed and foot speed, both of which grade as well above average. His huge right-handed power plays to all fields and he repeatedly drives the ball in the air, though he may have to develop more patience when pitchers refuse to challenge him."
Some may be concerned about Robert initially transitioning to MLB, but he is an aggressive hitter who punched out 55 times in 202 at-bats after getting called up to Triple-A. He still managed to hit .297/.341/.634 at that level, so it's not like he was completely overwhelmed going against advanced competition.
As long as Robert makes enough contact in the big leagues, his bat speed and raw power will give him a lot of homers right out of the gate as he adjusts to hitting elite-level pitching.
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels
Unlike the first two players listed, it's unclear if Jo Adell will open this season in MLB. The Los Angeles Angels' top prospect only played 76 games in 2019 because of a sprained ankle and strained hamstring he suffered on the same play during spring training.
Of those 76 games, Adell only played 27 at Triple-A and struggled in a small sample size with a .264/.321/.355 slash line.
In March, MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger listed Adell in the "possibilities" category when putting together the Angels' Opening Day roster, noting the 21-year-old is "likely" to open the year back in Triple-A.
Reigning American League MVP Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Brian Goodwin were considered locks for the three outfield spots by Bollinger.
Despite signing a five-year, $108 million extension after the 2017 season, Upton seems like the most vulnerable starting outfielder on the roster right now. The 32-year-old hit .215/.309/.416 with 12 homers and was limited to 63 games last season because of injuries.
Adell is MLB.com's sixth-ranked prospect coming into this season thanks to a strong offensive profile:
"He still swings and misses quite a bit, carrying a 25.3 percent strikeout rate in his pro career into the 2020 season. He could draw more walks, and it was encouraging to see him walk in nearly 10 percent of his AFL plate appearances, but his elite bat speed and ability to read pitches more than offsets that deficiency. He can drive the ball to all fields and his raw power will almost certainly show up more consistently as he matures."
The Angels made aggressive moves this offseason to take advantage of Trout's prime after missing the playoffs in each of the past five seasons. They signed Anthony Rendon away from the Washington Nationals to handle third base and add an impact bat to their lineup.
Adell might have to wait a little longer before getting the call up to Los Angeles, but all indications are the team is ready to be bold in an attempt to keep pace with the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics in the AL West.
Wild Card: Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Oakland A's
If Jesus Luzardo can stay healthy, he has the upside to give Oakland the No. 1 starting pitcher it has lacked during this recent run of success.
In three full seasons of professional baseball, Luzardo has only made more than 20 appearances once (2018). He was on pace to start last season in the big leagues until a strained rotator cuff suffered late in spring training shut him down until June.
The A's brought Luzardo up in September to help with their playoff push. The 22-year-old looked electric with a 1.50 ERA, 16 strikeouts and five hits allowed in six games out of the bullpen. He also tossed three shutout innings in the AL Wild Card Game against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Law ranked Luzardo as his No. 26 prospect in 2020:
"He’s been up to 97 mph and can sit 92-95 as a starter, with an above-average change and curveball that became plus when he pitched in relief for the big club. Luzardo threw 51 curves and got big-league hitters to swing and miss at 13 (25.5 percent). If he can hold up as a starter, he has a higher pure ceiling than teammate A.J. Puk, with better secondaries and probably better present command."
Obviously, the major caveat for Luzardo is durability. One potential solution for the A's, at least this season, is to use him as a high-leverage multi-inning reliever and/or closer before eventually stretching him out as a starter in 2021 and beyond.
If that ends up being the case, Luzardo will be tremendous fantasy value because of his ability to rack up saves and high strikeout totals in short bursts. He is a big gamble because of his injury history, but the ceiling is so high to make the risk worth taking in the later rounds of your draft.
