Fantasy Baseball

Taylor Rogers has the potential to be one of the best relief pitchers in Major League Baseball's 60-game season. 

The Minnesota Twins possess one of the best offenses in baseball, and if their lineup takes advantage of their American League Central matchups, the 29-year-old could be pitching with the lead in many late-inning situations. 

Washington's Sean Doolittle and the Atlanta duo of Mark Melancon and Will Smith may find themselves in a similar spot since their clubs are expected to be battling for National League East supremacy. 

If those teams are in positions to win for most of the 60 games, relievers like Rogers may come close to matching Josh Hader and Kirby Yates in fantasy baseball value. 

              

Top Fantasy Baseball Relievers For 60-Game Season

Taylor Rogers, Minnesota

Rogers moved into the closer role in 2019 by recording 30 saves with a 2.61 ERA in 60 appearances.

The left-handed pitcher likely will not throw in 60 games in 2020, but there is an outside chance of him reaching the 30-save mark. 

Minnesota added Josh Donaldson as support for Nelson Cruz in the heart of the order, and it has a lineup capable of producing runs in an instant off the long ball. In 2019, the Twins hit a single-season record 307 home runs and had seven players eclipse the 20-homer mark. 

If Minnesota benefits from instant offense in 2020, it should provide comfort for Rogers when he takes the hill in the eighth or ninth inning.

Rogers allowed eight earned runs in his final 18 regular-season appearances of 2019, and seven of those occurred in two contests. He also owns favorable numbers against Cleveland, who should be Minnesota's top competition for the division crown. 

Rogers is 2-1 with six saves, a 1.99 ERA and 10.2 strikeouts-per-nine-innings versus Cleveland, and if he achieves more success, he could be the Twins' X-factor to securing first place. 

             

Sean Doolittle, Washington

Doolittle should be selected on his consistency alone. He has picked up at least 20 saves in each of his three seasons with Washington. 

The 33-year-old has also excelled at shutting down opposing hitters on both sides of the plate. Right-handed batters have a .216 batting average against him, while lefties sit at .186. 

Doolitte typically starts strong, as he owns a strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate over 11 in April and May.

The southpaw should be available in the middle of most 12-team drafts since his current average draft position is 189, per Fantasy Pros. 

If he can start strong again and hold the bats of Atlanta and Philadelphia at bay, Doolittle could not only be a key fantasy contributor but also a major piece in Washington's title defense.

               

Will Smith and Mark Melancon, Atlanta

Atlanta could have the most unique pitching setup of all the National League contenders. 

It may have the opportunity to run with a six-man rotation at times, and it has a pair of closer candidates in Smith and Melancon.

The latter is expected to begin the campaign as the ninth-inning man, but the former could challenge him for that role.

Even if Smith does not record an abundance of saves, he could put together a string of shutdown innings, and with the three-batter minimum in place for relievers, he could carry more fantasy value.

Smith did not allow more than six earned runs in a single month in 2019 for the San Francisco Giants, while Melancon finished well with 13 scoreless outings in his last 15 appearances. 

Neither hurler will be selected high because of the uncertainty of their situation, but both could be valuable given their recent numbers and with Atlanta expected to be out in front in a good amount of games. 

              

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference.

MLB's 60-game regular season should deliver some unexpected results, but the list of top fantasy baseball producers may not change much.

In fact, the shortened campaign may aid the effectiveness of Mike Trout since the Los Angeles Angels could have a better chance to qualify for the postseason. Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Atlanta Braves enter with a different set of expectations, as they could be one of the top World Series contenders in the National League.

The factors caused by a 60-game season make both players worthy top selections in fantasy baseball drafts, and some arguments could even be made for Christian Yelich to fill that position as well.

                        

Predictions for Top Fantasy Baseball Players

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Trout should be one of the most consistent players across all stat categories.

The 28-year-old led the majors in on-base percentage in 2018 and 2019 and is coming off his career-best home run total of 45. Trout's ability to reach base could turn into more runs in 2020, with Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols hitting behind him.

Playing 10 games against each American League West opponent should keep Trout near the league lead in on-base percentage and other splits. He owns a batting average over .320, OBP over .420 and OPS over 1.070 versus the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers.

With one-third of his games coming against those two teams, Trout should feast in the power categories.

An argument could be made that matchups with the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics could balance out his numbers, but Trout owns a .301 batting average and .965 OPS in 613 plate appearances against the latter.

If Trout takes advantage of his historically favorable AL West showdowns, he could come close to matching the .294 batting average, .463 OBP, .607 slugging percentage and 1.070 OPS he recorded in the first 60 games of 2019.

Prediction: .302 batting average, 18 home runs, 50 RBI

                  

Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta

Acuna possesses a much smaller sample size than Trout to base his 2020 numbers off of, but the early returns have been a fantasy baseball owner's dream.

The 22-year-old totaled 41 home runs, 101 RBI, 127 runs and 37 stolen bases over 156 games in 2019.

He may be more productive with runs and stolen bases than Trout since Atlanta plays in a more difficult division than the Angels.

In National League East showdowns with the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, more focus could be placed on early run production to avoid top opposing pitchers from setting into a rhythm. That strategy could lead to the Braves being more aggressive with Acuna, Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman in the top third of the batting order.

Similar to Trout, Acuna should feast on the weakest squad in his division, as he has 16 home runs in 37 meetings with the Miami Marlins.

Where Trout could have the advantage for the No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts is interleague scheduling; Acuna has to face the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, while Trout takes on the Los Angeles Dodgers and four sides that entered 2020 without championship ambitions.

Prediction: .275 batting average, 17 home runs, 50 RBI

                

Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee

Yelich recorded career bests in home runs and all four splits in 2019, which may see some owners choose him over Acuna and Trout.

The other factor to justify Yelich as the No. 1 overall pick is the favorable schedule he faces out of the NL Central.

Half of his matchups within the division come against the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates, who finished a combined 36 games out of first place in 2019. Of course, one or both of those teams could try to seize the moment and make an unexpected run at the playoffs, but that does not seem likely with three strong franchises headlining the division.

In addition, Yelich plays three of his five interleague series versus AL Central foes that finished 15 games below .500 or worse last season.

Yelich is also no stranger to starting strong, as he produced a home run in each of his first four contests in 2019 and hit 24 long balls in the opening 60 games. If he performs well against lesser opposition, Yelich may finish as the top producer of the three.

Prediction: .305 batting average, 20 home runs, 45 RBI

                      

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference.

Elite starting pitching was at a premium in fantasy baseball long before the calendar flipped to 2020.

All the unexpected twists and turns since—the most relevant here being Major League Baseball trimming the campaign to just 60 games—have only increased the position's importance.

For everything we don't know about the upcoming season, we're pretty certain breakout starting pitchers will be among the most valuable commodities in all of fantasy sports. Given the shortage of aces, being able to add one without paying the normal price for that kind of output is the gift that keeps on giving—a pattern that often concludes with you being gifted a league title.

The following three starters are all poised for enormous leaps up the SP rankings over the upcoming season.

                  

Jesus Luzardo, Oakland Athletics

Want to know a good time to target a starting pitcher? When talent isn't the reason he's being undervalued.

Granted, there's a reason Luzardo has an average draft position of 114 and is typically the 37th pitcher off the board, per FantasyPros, but it has nothing to do with his stuff. That's all filthy: three plus-to-elite pitches and velocity to boot. The only issue is whether he can stay upright, which he has yet to do consistently. He has thrown fewer than 200 innings in four years since being drafted and never more than 109.1.

That can't be ignored, but the risk is being baked into the price point already. A talent like him shouldn't be available outside of the top 100—and won't be for long.

"This top prospect has absolutely shredded the minor leagues then looked excellent in his debut last year," Bobby Sylvester wrote for FantasyPros. "Much like Walker Buehler back in 2018 and Chris Paddack last year, I'm expecting Luzardo to hit the ground running as one of the top-15 starting pitchers right away."

             

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

It isn't always easy for a minor leaguer to get noticed, but Gallen took matters into his own hands in 2019. He pitched to a minuscule 1.77 ERA across 14 starts in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and piled up 112 strikeouts against just 17 walks.

When he was promoted to the big leagues, the dominance stayed the same—as it did after a trade from the Miami Marlins to the Diamondbacks. He pitched 80 MLB innings in all, posting a 2.81 ERA and 96 strikeouts. He issued more free passes (36), but as CBS Sports' Scott White explained, the walks actually increase Gallen's appeal for 2020:

"Control was going to be the skill that put him over the top, and yet his 4.1 BB/9 were a far cry from the 1.7 he had in those 14 Triple-A starts. But we know it's a result of inexperience rather than a flaw in his delivery or some other longstanding issue, and most of the blame falls on three wayward starts anyway. Take what we saw last year, add one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in baseball, and it's easy to envision Gallen becoming an ace."

Gallen is among the most popular breakout picks, but it hasn't inflated his price too much. He's still available outside of the top 100 picks (ADP: 115).

                  

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves

Getting excited about Fried's potential requires looking beyond the traditional metrics.

Upon first glance, his 2019 season seems like nothing special. He had a 4.02 ERA and a touch more strikeouts (173) than innings pitched (165.2). But his advanced metrics said he pitched better than that (3.72 FIP), and ESPN's Tristan H. Cockcroft found even more reason to feel bullish about Fried:

"He was one of only three ERA-qualified pitchers with at least 24 percent strikeout and 50 percent ground-ball rates plus an 8 percent walk rate or less, joining German Marquez and Stephen Strasburg in that exclusive company. Fried also showed one of the wider average velocity ranges with his four-seam fastball, as well as between his four-seam fastball and changeup, giving him a good array of pitches."

Fried, who once headlined Atlanta's return in the 2014 trade of Justin Upton, could ride that combination of above-average strikeouts and high-end ground-ball and walk rates to fantasy stardom.  

There will be baseball in 2020.

It won't be much, but 60 games of MLB—and, maybe more importantly, fantasy baseball—is infinitely better than none.

With camps already set to open on July 1, we have officially hit cram-session mode with drafts set to roll early and often between now and then. Let's get the cramming started with a look at our top 50 rankings for rotisserie leagues and a 12-team mock first round.

                

Top 50 Roto Rankings for 2020

1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

2. Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

3. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

4. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

7. Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals

8. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals

9. Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees

10. Alex Bregman, 3B/SS, Houston Astros

11. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies

12. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets

13. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

14. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox

15. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves

16. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels

17. Bryce Harper, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

18. J.D. Martinez, OF, Boston Red Sox

19. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Indians

20. Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros

21. Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals

22. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

23. Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs

24. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

25. Starling Marte, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

26. Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

27. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies

28. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

29. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox

30. Jack Flaherty, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

31. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros

32. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets

33. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

34. Gleyber Torres, SS/2B, New York Yankees

35. Manny Machado, 3B/SS, San Diego Padres

36. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians

37. Austin Meadows, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

38. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

39. Nelson Cruz, DH, Minnesota Twins

40. Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

41. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs

42. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves

43. Yordan Alvarez, DH, Houston Astros

44. Ketel Marte, OF/2B, Arizona Diamondbacks

45. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs

46. Patrick Corbin, SP, Washington Nationals

47. Jonathan Villar, 2B/SS, Miami Marlins

48. Max Muncy, 2B/1B/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers

49. Eddie Rosario, OF, Minnesota Twins

50. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

     

Before getting any further into the preparation process, it's best to understand this: We're heading into uncharted waters. This season will be strange, and it might prove unpredictable.

It's basically one-third of a normal season, and we have seen time and again how streaky players can be over a roughly two-month stretch. Through 60 games in 2019, Gerrit Cole had a 3.94 ERA, and Hunter Pence had launched 12 home runs. Cole wound up with an AL-best 2.50 ERA, while Pence hit just six homers the rest of the season. It's not enough of a sample size to limit the effects of cold or hot starts.

What should that mean for your predraft rankings? Good question.

To simplify the process, the best advice is probably not to overthink it. While there's no guarantee the best players look the part over a 60-game season, they still have the most favorable odds to do so. Your original rankings heading into the season can mostly still be trusted at this point.

That said, you'll want to bump up any players you had previously downgraded for injury issues (like Justin Verlander). You might also choose to collectively drop the value of pitchers. They are inherently more volatile year over year, and that volatility could spike over what might be only 10 or 12 starts. They may not be afforded as many innings per start either, and one bad outing could permanently scar their ratio stats.

Then again, some may argue that the volatility at this position should increase the value of the elite. The thought process there is if there are fewer sure things available, then it's best to grab as many as you can. That's not the worst strategy to employ—though it's not utilized for these rankings—but you better hope you invest in the right brand-name hurlers.

                  

12-Team, Roto League Mock First Round

1. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

2. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

3. Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

4. Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals

7. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies

8. Juan Soto, OF, Washingon Nationals

9. Gerritt Cole, SP, New York Yankees

10. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets

11. Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros

12. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

      

If your roto league draft doesn't start with some combination of Acuna, Trout and Yelich, you're doing it wrong.

Quibbling over the order isn't worth the effort. Acuna gets the nod here for his obvious upside as a power-plus-speed threat. He is 22 years old and just paired 41 homers with 37 steals last season. He already seems like the sport's next young superstar.

But if you prefer Trout or Yelich, there's no major argument from us. Trout remains in the heart of his prime, and he might eventually walk away as the greatest to ever play the game. Yelich has arguably been the best hitter in baseball for two years running. Either makes for a tremendous foundation to construct your roster around.

The fourth pick provides the first true decision of the draft, as there's a noticeable gap after the top trio. Betts' ceiling wins out here, but it's not a comfortable choice. In two of the last four seasons, he's been unbelievable. In the other two, he's been more of a star than a superstar. Tack on the fact he's playing with a new team and in a new league this season, and his outlook seems less predictable than most.

The other debate point of the round is when the first starting pitcher should come off the board.

Some owners might ding pitchers across the board. Others could prop up the legitimate aces. We're doing more of the former than the latter with Cole leading the position as the ninth overall pick, and deGrom being its only other first-rounder. Your draft room might see it differently, though, so you should find a pitching strategy you're comfortable with but prepare to divert from it based on your league's activity.

A shortened MLB season would require fantasy baseball owners to take a different draft approach than in any previous year.

If a condensed schedule is agreed upon, fantasy owners have to get the most out of every single draft selection. That requires more research into which pitchers can bolster rotations and keep weekly numbers as high as possible.

San Diego's Dinelson Lamet was going to be viewed as a sleeper selection in a full season because of the second-half performances he put in last season, and with owners looking for every advantage, his strikeout rate could be more valuable.

Lance McCullers Jr. is another pitcher who could be overlooked since he spent 2019 away from the mound. But if he returns to his 2018 form, he could help the Houston Astros contend for another title.

                   

Predictions for Under-the-Radar Pitchers

Dinelson Lamet, SP, San Diego 

Lamet was a popular late-season waiver pickup in 2019 because of his high strikeout rate.

The 27-year-old punched out 107 batters in 73 innings over 14 appearances, but he finished with a 3-5 record. His record and the expectation San Diego will be in the middle of the pack, at best, in the National League West has kept Lamet further down the pitcher rankings.

Lamet's average draft position is 121, per Fantasy Pros, but it varies depending on which fantasy service you use. His ADP on Yahoo is 116, and it is 149 in ESPN leagues.

The variance is likely due to the small sample size we have of the right-handed pitcher at the major league level. He has 35 starts to his name, with 24 coming in 2017 before an extended injury layoff.

But he could be an intriguing selection in the middle rounds because of the numbers he produced in a three-month span to finish the 2019 campaign.

Lamet had at least five strikeouts in all but one appearance and finished with 24 punch outs in two games against the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers.

If he performs at the same level and receives more run support in his starts to record more wins, Lamet could become one of the steals of the middle rounds in 12-team leagues.

Prediction: 10th-round fantasy draft pick.

               

Lance McCullers Jr., SP, Houston

Drafting McCullers comes with a risk since he is coming off Tommy John surgery, but if he returns to the form he was in prior to the surgery, he may be one of the best under-the-radar selections.

In 2018, the right-handed hurler won 10 games for the first time in his career and set a personal best of 142 strikeouts. McCullers' career 10.1 strikeouts-per-nine innings and 2.86 strikeout-to-walk ratio are some of the better numbers you will see from pitchers in the middle rounds.

The 26-year-old has not allowed more than 56 earned runs in a season, and he limited opponents to 12 home runs over 22 appearances two seasons ago. While those numbers make him an intriguing selection, he should not be chosen too high because he is coming off an extended recovery period.

However, McCullers comes with plenty of upside since the Houston Astros should give him plenty of run support.

His presence at the back end of the Houston rotation should see him move a bit above his ADP of 179 in some leagues, and if you can get him in the 12th or 13th round as a fourth or fifth starter, he could be well worth the selection.

Prediction: 12th-round selection.

               

Keone Kela, RP, Pittsburgh            

It may be hard to convince some owners to select a closer for a team projected to be one of the worst in baseball.

However, in a shortened season with less room for error, Keone Kela could carry some value in the later rounds. Kela has experience as a closer from his time with the Texas Rangers, with whom he earned 24 saves in 2018.

In 2019, the right-handed reliever conceded seven earned runs in 29.2 relief innings, and his strikeout-per-nine innings rate has never dropped below 10. Pittsburgh could gain more motivation in a shortened campaign because it would have a better chance of landing a postseason berth than in a 162-game season.

With no pressure on the Pirates to succeed, they could surprise some NL Central opponents. And if they do, Kela will be called on more to finish games.

Kela should be viewed as a complement to one of the top relievers at first, but he could outperform his ADP of 203 if the Pirates are more competitive than expected.

Prediction: 16th round. 

                  

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference.

In fantasy baseball, it's important to awaken to sleepers before everyone else does and avoid busts at all costs.

But nothing increases your odds of a league title more than pouncing on a breakout star.

The leap from good to great is the most difficult in sports, but it's also the most rewarding. That's just as true in the fantasy realm, where the transformation of a 20-home run hitter into a 45-bomb power bat or a solid starting pitcher into a Cy Young candidate will elevate your entire output.

We're here to steer you in the direction of some breakout bats who could prove to be league-winners.

                   

Franmil Reyes, OF/DH, Cleveland Indians

Franmil Reyes opened the 2019 season in the unfriendly (for fantasy purposes) confines of San Diego's Petco Park. He didn't always have a full-time gig and had to navigate around a midseason trade to Cleveland.

The 24-year-old still blasted his way to 37 homers in just 494 at-bats. His batting average lagged (.249), and he struck out a ton (156 times to be exact), but he still helped every fantasy owner smart enough to roster him.

That could be just the beginning. The power potential here is elite. Looking beyond the long balls, Reyes had the second-highest average exit velocity. He also squared up enough to post a top-10 barrel rate. Oh, and his average has room to improve. He tallied a .280 mark across 87 games the season prior.

With a full-time role and prominent lineup spot likely awaiting him, he has the chance to get comfortable in Cleveland and skyrocket his statistics. A .260 average with a 50-homer pace is not out of the question.

                 

Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

As a 22-year-old, brand-name prospect, Bo Bichette isn't the kind of player you can speak past your leaguemates. But if you're a big believer in his skills, you can still find significant value even with his price tag (average draft position of 67th, per Fantasy Pros).

The son of four-time All-Star Dante Bichette, Bo naturally looked...well, like a natural during his first taste of the big leagues last season. He did everything his fantasy owners could've wanted and then some. He managed to pack 11 homers, four steals and 53 combined runs and RBI into only 46 games, all while batting .311 and posting a .358 on-base percentage.

The Blue Jays can't wait to see what the 22-year-old has cooked up for an encore.

"The same way pitchers are adjusting to the hitter, the hitter has to adjust to the pitching," hitting coach Guillermo Martinez said, per MLB.com's Keegan Matheson. "For Bo to continue doing what he's doing, he doesn't have many holes in his swing, so if he continues to stay confident with what he's been doing his entire life, he'll be fine."

A full season of Bichette could be spectacular. His 162-game pace last season featured 39 homers, 14 steals, 113 runs and 74 RBI. If he maintains a similar pace—all while batting atop a talented, young Toronto lineup—he could be fantasy baseball's next superstar.

                 

Willie Calhoun, OF, Texas Rangers

The Rangers slow-played Willie Calhoun's rise to the big leagues, but there was no stopping him last year.

The 25-year-old was promoted in mid-May and other than a brief battle with quadriceps tightness, he became a fixture in Texas' lineup. He totaled 83 appearances, launching 21 homers, driving in 48 runs and hitting .269 along the way. Stretch those marks over 162 games, and you're essentially looking at 40 bombs and 100 RBI.

Not bad production for someone with an average draft position of 181st, right?

He fractured his jaw in March, which could have delayed his start, but the postponement of this season erased that concern long ago.

With Nomar Mazara shipped off to the Chicago White Sox, Calhoun should finally have stability at his position and in the batting order. Based on what we've seen—in 2017, he batted .300 with 31 homers and 93 RBI over 128 games in AAA—his numbers could be gargantuan.

If there is a Major League Baseball season, the margin of error for pitchers will be slim.

That should turn fantasy baseball owners away from Aaron Nola and other hurlers when it is time to draft. The Philadelphia Phillies man struggled during the final month of the 2019 season and did not have great marks against National League East competition. 

Although Marcus Stroman achieved more success than Nola, there are still some concerns about him since his ERA rose after moving from the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Mets. 

If both hurlers have to face more divisional foes in a potentially shortened season, they could come with more risks for fantasy teams in need of strong numbers from every start. 

            

Fantasy Baseball Players to Avoid

Aaron Nola, RHP, Philadelphia

Nola did not record a victory in his last seven starts of 2019. In fact, the Phillies lost eight of his final 10 appearances, with five defeats coming against NL East opposition.

Nola went 4-5 in 17 appearances versus the Atlanta Braves, Miami Marlins, New York Mets and Washington Nationals. 

The 27-year-old is also 5-9 in September in his career, which is a total that neutralizes the success he typically achieves in August. 

If the shortened season happens, pitchers need to make every outing count in order to earn a postseason berth. 

Nola's September inconsistencies turn him from a player who could be strong in the summer to one who should be avoided with an average draft position of 46, per FantasyPros.

           

Marcus Stroman, RHP, New York Mets

In a normal 162-game season, Stroman would carry strong middle-round value. 

However in a short campaign, he could be more of a risk because of the amount of hits and earned runs he conceded in his 11-start stint with the New York Mets. 

Stroman's ERA rose from 2.96 when he was traded by Toronto to 3.22 ERA at the end of the season. He conceded eight home runs, including two in a pair of games, and allowed six or more hits on six occasions. 

The 29-year-old also did not last more than six innings in any of his five appearances against NL East opposition. 

With Atlanta, Philadelphia and Washington all boasting strong lineups, Stroman may have trouble settling into a rhythm in July and August. If you add in that August is his least successful month, it's not a good formula for success. 

Stroman, whose ADP is 192, should be considered behind hurlers with more favorable divisional schedules, such as in the American League Central and NL West, where fewer contenders are expected to emerge.

         

Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City

When it comes to hitters, you have to select players who can fill up every stat category. Any drop-off may cost you a spot in the postseason. 

Adalberto Mondesi is an intriguing shortstop choice because of his 109 hits, 43 stolen bases, 20 doubles and 10 triples from 2019, but he comes with too much risk.

The 24-year-old struck out on 162 occasions in 102 games, recorded a .263 batting average and .291 on-base percentage last season.

When you compare the Royals infielder to Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, Jonathan Villar and others who bring more power to the position, his ADP of 44 does not make sense. 

Mondesi could be selected a few rounds beneath his ADP, but he should only be considered if you have enough power already on your roster. 

Even then, though, he may be viewed as a risky pick due to his high strikeout rate and average splits. 

               

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference

The key to assembling a quality starting rotation in fantasy baseball is identifying workhorse pitchers who can go deep into games while possessing good strikeout stuff.

Of course, it helps to understand what "good strikeout stuff" means.

Some pitchers attack hitters with power, a mix of velocity and sharp breaking balls. Others use their full arsenal of pitches and craftiness to keep hitters off balance. But a quality fastball-changeup combination is as good as key to success for starting pitchers.

Cincinnati Reds right-hander Luis Castillo is just 27, but that same combination could make him one of the best pitchers in baseball for years to come.

Here is some more on Castillo and other pitchers on the rise.

                     

Fantasy Baseball Pitchers on the Rise

     

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

   

Castillo showed glimpses of his potential during the 2017 season, when he had a 3.12 ERA in 15 starts for the Reds. He regressed in 2018, though Castillo still had a respectable 4.30 ERA.

But the Dominican excelled in 2019, going 15-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings, repeatedly fooling opposing hitters with a changeup that falls off the table.

Opponents hit just .128 with a 48 percent whiff rate against Castillo's changeup in 2019, per Baseball Savant. He also boasts a wipeout slider that backs up on lefties, and his average fastball velocity was 96.4 mph.

Fantasy owners are clearly respecting Castillo's potential. His average draft position (ADP) of 43 ranks him 13th among starting pitchers.

The Reds are hoping to surpass their dark-horse status to become a real contender in the National League Central. They will need Castillo to cement himself as an ace for that to happen. The key will be whether he can have better success with the heater. Though he has the velocity, opponents slugged .504 against his fastball last season.

Considering he makes half his starts in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, Castillo will have to establish the fastball and keep the homers down. If he can do that, he might be in the Cy Young conversation.

                         

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

   

Zack Wheeler signed the richest contract of any pitcher not named Gerrit Cole this past offseason, and with good reason.

The 30-year-old is coming off the two best seasons of his career. Wheeler had a 3.96 ERA last year, but his 3.48 fielding independent pitching (FIP) mark, per FanGraphs, suggests he had bad luck. That makes sense given the New York Mets' defensive deficiencies last year.

Moreover, Wheeler has remained healthy. He threw more than 180 innings in 2018 and tossed a career-high 195 ⅓ frames this past season.

Wheeler had 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings last season, but the right-hander also routinely avoids hard contact. Wheeler ranked in the 90th percentile in terms of average exit velocity in 2019, per Baseball Savant. This is no fluke, either, as he was in the top 4 percent of all pitchers in that same metric in 2018.

The new Phillies starter's 104 ADP is decent value. Wheeler has tremendous success with the four-seamer and is equally effective when using the changeup and his breaking pitches. He strikes out opposing hitters at a decent clip, does not give out many free passes and induces tons of soft contact.

Those factors should make him a coveted asset for fantasy owners.

                     

Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers

   

Julio Urias' value is hard to pin down.

The Mexican made his MLB debut at just 19, and he seemed like a future Dodger staple. But injuries muddied that outlook a bit, and Urias has since bounced between the bullpen and the rotation.

However, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts named Urias the fourth starter in February, and the 23-year-old was primed for a big season.

Urias struck out 9.6 hitters per nine innings en route to a 2.49 ERA last season. Like Wheeler, he also induces tons of soft contact, ranking in the top 1 percent in both average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage last season, per Baseball Savant.

The left-hander's fastball-slider combination is as good as any in baseball, and he is able a little something extra off his changeup from time to time.

Another reason to buy high on Urias? He pitches in front of one of the best defenses in baseball—one that added the best defensive right fielder in the world, Mookie Betts, this offseason.

Urias' 144 ADP ranks him 40th among starting pitchers and 55th among all pitchers. But he could easily surpass expectations given his makeup and track record.

                 

All stats obtained via Baseball Reference and all fantasy information via FantasyPros unless otherwise noted. 

Every day brings us closer to the return of fantasy baseball.

Even if we don't know when (or even if) the 2020 MLB season will start, we at least know we're always moving nearer to the opening pitch.

Consider this, then, an extended time of draft preparation. While some years you might feel too crunched for time to do adequate research, that excuse is out the window. You can examine as much information as you care to handle, starting with our mock first round and sleeper hitters below.

                    

12-Team Mock First Round for Roto Leagues

1. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

2. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

3. Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

4. Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Gerritt Cole, SP, New York Yankees

7. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets

8. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals

9. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies

10. Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals

11. Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros

12. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

                        

Sleeper Hitters To Target

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Atlanta Braves

Fantasy owners have apparently decided Marcell Ozuna is another run-of-the-mill power hitter. He isn't exactly being ignored, but with an average draft position of 97 (per Fantasy Pros), he isn't being treated as a special talent, either.

The numbers say fantasy owners should reconsider.

If last season serves as a baseline for production, then you can pencil him in for around 30 homers (he hit 29) and roughly 170 combined runs and RBI (169). Judging by his career marks, though, his .241 batting average was an outlier. He's a .272 hitter for his career, and in the previous two campaigns, he hit .280 and .312.

A batting average bump alone should nudge him higher in the top 100, and his 2017 season shows how much farther he can climb. That year, he was both an All-Star and a Silver Slugger with personal bests in homers (37), RBI (124) and runs (93).

His offseason move from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Braves took him from the 19th-best offense in total runs (764) to the seventh-best (855). Even with the same power output, he should improve his runs and RBI totals, and if he decides to run again (he swiped 12 bags last season), he could be one of fantasy's best values.

            

Khris Davis, DH, Oakland A's

There are models of consistency, and then there's pre-2019 Khris Davis.

He was automatic to a comical degree. Between 2016 and 2018, he belted between 42 and 48 home runs while tallying between 102 and 123 RBI. More incredibly, he hit exactly .247 in four consecutive seasons and had a .244 average the year prior.

All of those stats suggest you should hide your eyes and divert your attention away from his injury-riddled 2019 season. Before being sidetracked by a hip injury suffered while running into an outfield wall, he looked like his normal self. Through 43 games, he had 12 homers and 29 RBI. Oh, and guess what he was hitting—.247, as per usual.

But he never got back on track from there. Over his final 90 games, he only had 11 home runs and batted a very un-Davis-like .207.

Was the now-32-year-old showing signs of a swift decline? Or was this the collateral damage from that collision with the fence? We're willing to bet on the latter, especially at his more-than-reasonable price tag of a 174 ADP.

            

Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

After previously flashing intriguing pop, Paul DeJong finally received a full-season workload in 2019. He promptly pounced on the opportunity with 30 homers, 97 runs, 78 RBI and even nine stolen bases.

One year later, the fantasy community is somehow shrugging its shoulders at the breakout. His ADP sits at a head-scratching 187.

What's the issue? Well, DeJong only hit .233, but two years prior, he was a .285 hitter, so the upward mobility is both obvious and significant. He also front-loaded some of his production—.258 batting average before the All-Star break, .202 after—but even then, he had more homers (17 to 13) and more RBI (42 to 36) in fewer games (72 to 87) in the first half than the second.

Perhaps he's being penalized for the impressive depth at the position, but how many other shortstops are delivering 30 homers, nine steals and 175 combined runs and RBI? The answer: Not nearly enough to let him last as long on the draft board as he has been.

Nothing excites the fantasy baseball world more than a breakout star.

Draft the right one, and it could be a league-winning move. If you got in early on Rafael Devers, Ketel Marte or Marcus Semien last season, you might still be creating space for all of your fantasy trophies.

After laying out our top 50 rotisserie rankings for the 2020 season, we'll spotlight three breakout hitters worth rostering any place that you can.

              

Top 50 Roto Ranks

1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

2. Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

3. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

4. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

7. Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals

8. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals

9. Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees

10. Alex Bregman, 3B/SS, Houston Astros

11. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies

12. Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets

13. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

14. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox

15. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves

16. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels

17. Bryce Harper, OF, Philadelphia Phillies

18. J.D. Martinez, OF, Boston Red Sox

19. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Indians

20. Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros

21. Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals

22. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros

23. Javier Baez, SS, Chicago Cubs

24. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres

25. Starling Marte, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

26. Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

27. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies

28. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

29. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Boston Red Sox

30. Jack Flaherty, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

31. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros

32. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets

33. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

34. Gleyber Torres, SS/2B, New York Yankees

35. Manny Machado, 3B/SS, San Diego Padres

36. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians

37. Austin Meadows, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

38. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

39. Nelson Cruz, DH, Minnesota Twins

40. Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

41. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs

42. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves

43. Yordan Alvarez, DH, Houston Astros

44. Ketel Marte, OF/2B, Arizona Diamondbacks

45. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs

46. Patrick Corbin, SP, Washington Nationals

47. Jonathan Villar, 2B/SS, Miami Marlins

48. Max Muncy, 2B/1B/3B, Los Angeles Dodgers

49. Eddie Rosario, OF, Minnesota Twins

50. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

               

Breakout Hitters To Target

Keston Hiura, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers

Depending on the activity and focus level of your fantasy league, the cat might already be out of the bag with Keston Hiura. But maybe your leaguemates didn't take notice of his 2019 performance or have since miscalculated what it could mean for his 2020 potential.

The Brewers brought him up in mid-May last year, but he couldn't make it through a full month at the MLB level. He had a decent batting average (.281) and flashed some pop (five homers in 17 games), but he couldn't make consistent enough contact to stick (23 strikeouts in 64 at-bats).

Hiura spent most of June in the minors, and that was apparently all the time he needed to right the ship. He returned to Milwaukee before the month was up, and from that point forward, he batted .308 with a .376 on-base percentage, 14 homers and eight stolen bases.

For those paying attention, the 23-year-old had more or less established himself as a fantasy elite. His 162-game average featured 37 home runs, 17 stolen bases and 193 combined runs and RBI.

Hiura already looks like a star, and soon he'll have the price tag to match. Get him while he's still available at a discounted rate.

                 

Franmil Reyes, OF, Cleveland Indians

There's a monster power source hiding in plain sight, and he goes by the name of Franmil Reyes.

By advanced or traditional metrics, the 24-year-old is a flat-out masher. If counting categories are more your thing, he slugged 37 homers and drove in 81 runs in fewer than 500 at-bats last season. If you're more inclined to follow analytical advice, he had last season's fifth-highest hard hit percentage (51.0) and 14th best barrell rate (9.3 percent).

While Reyes has struggled with hitting too many balls on the ground, he made strides last season and could make a massive leap if he keeps improving.

"From 2018 to 2019, Reyes lowered his ground-ball rate five percent and raised his average launch angle 2.7 degrees," CBS Sports' Frank Stampfl wrote. "If that trend continues with how hard Reyes hits the ball, we could see a HR/PA rate that ranks among the elite in baseball."

The Indians should plant Reyes right in the heart of their batting order. If that was ever in doubt, he made the loudest possible argument for it with an incredible display at spring training. Prior to its suspension, he was hitting .444 with nine extra-base hits, five home runs and 11 RBI in 10 games.

                

Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros

The only remaining unchecked box on Kyle Tucker's fantasy scorecard is opportunity. Granted, that's a big one, since it means he's unproven at the big-league level (131 career at-bats) and isn't necessarily locked into an everyday role.

But the 23-year-old has all the tools to emerge as a fantasy juggernaut, and Houston should be itching to hand him the keys.

Before even factoring in the possibility of expanded rosters, the Astros need more certainty in the outfield with Michael Brantley, George Springer and Josh Reddick all ticketed for free agency next offseason. This is the perfect time to clear the runway for Tucker and see if he can take flight.

"I really think that this is going to be his breakout year," Astros second baseman Jose Altuve told reporters in February. "We've been contenders multiple years now, but this year I think he's going to be a big, big part of our team and he's going to have an All-Star-caliber season."

While Tucker has yet to tear the cover off the baseball in the big leagues, no one should form any conclusions over such a small sample size. He could be a five-category contributor, and even that's underselling his potential. Bobby Sylvester of FantasyPros doesn't think a 40-homer, 25-stolen-base season is out of the question "within the next few years."

That guarantees nothing for 2020, of course, but the stars seem to be aligning for Tucker to take off.