Giannis Antetokounmpo

Sunday's Game 3 of the 2021 NBA Finals isn't an elimination game—but it sure has the feel of it. 

A desperate, hosting Milwaukee Bucks squad sits in an 0-2 hole against the upstart Phoenix Suns. While Giannis Antetokounmpo's knee issue has become something of an afterthought, what's going on around him certainly isn't. 

That something will likely be what most would-be bettors lean into before Sunday night's tipoff at 8 p.m. ET. Namely, the fact Antetokounmpo put up a game-high 42 points, yet still lost 118-108 to cement the 0-2 hole. 

Still, oddsmakers feel a home-court advantage, if not a dash of desperation, is good enough to position the Bucks as favorites. Let's take a look at the odds and then zoom in on some pertinent details. 

   

NBA Finals Game 3 Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread: Milwaukee (-4.5)

Over/Under: 221.5

Money Line: Phoenix (+162; bet $100 to win $162); Milwaukee (-194; bet $194 to win $100)

    

Preview and Prediction

At face value, one would think the Bucks finally returning home might help them readjust what has been a lopsided series so far. 

There's some evidence to it, too. While Antetokounmpo has been on fire, even from the 5 while being asked to defensively stutter Phoenix's Deandre Ayton, the same can't be said for Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. 

Middleton, over two games so far, has shot a miserable 40.5 percent from the floor and 33.3 percent from deep, down from 47.6 and 41.4 percent from the regular season, respectively. Holiday, while dishing more assists on average, has bumped his average shot attempts (13.9 to 17.5) while dramatically dipping in efficiency (50.3 field-goal percentage in the regular season down to 31.4). 

Simple logic says one or both should break out of the slump on a friendly court, especially once paired with adjustments. The inverse is also true—the Suns can't remain this hot, right? Phoenix shot 46.6 percent from the floor in Game 1, then 48.9 percent in Game 2 while hitting 20 of 40 three-point attempts (Milwaukee hit nine of 31). 

Injuries play a role in the friendly Milwaukee odds, too. The Suns lost Dario Saric in Game 1 and Torrey Craig went down in Game 2. The 30-year-old Craig isn't a stat sheet stuffer by any means, but he's a critical part of the rotation behind Ayton. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported the veteran is merely day-to-day, but even that is enough to swing the odds outlook. 

Despite all this, there are some vital things to consider when combing advanced numbers. The Bucks might have drummed up 46 wins and led the league at 120.1 points per game in the regular season, sure. But as ESPN's Data Skrive tallied, they went just 42-48-1 against the spread (ATS). They had a losing record against it when favored by at least 3.5 points (32-34-1). 

Phoenix, on the other hand, went 55-34-1 against the spread and 32-21 while an underdog of at least 3.5 points. 

Barring a good feeling from a would-be bettor, there hasn't been much to suggest the Suns will just magically cool off now. Devin Booker (29.0 points per game on 43.5 percent shooting) hasn't shown any signs of slowing and one can safely presume the veteran Chris Paul won't slow, either. And if that's the case, even in Game 2, the Bucks outscored the Suns 54-28 in the paint but came up 10 points short overall. 

If there's any guarantee, it's these teams sprinting to exceed the over. They did in the prior two games and as Skrive pointed out, both did on more than 50 percent of their games in the regular season. 

But as far as the actual spread goes, there's zero reason to turn away from Phoenix now. Booker and Co. went 6-1 on the road in the playoffs. And while the Bucks climbed out of an 0-2 hole elsewhere, injuries to the opponent played a big role. The Suns have been too dominant and ATS trends point toward that continuing. 

Prediction: Suns 120, Bucks 110

   

Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo took a page out of former NFL running back Marshawn Lynch's book while talking to the media Saturday.

When asked whether he was excited to play in front of the home fans during Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Sunday, Giannis offered a funny response:

“I’m just here not to get fined.” 😂

Giannis pulled a Marshawn Lynch during his media availability. https://t.co/kycI0ah0su

— NBA TV (@NBATV) July 10, 2021

"I'm just here not to get fined," Giannis said, before laughing and making it clear he was joking.

The line was a throwback to when Lynch—while he was playing for the Seattle Seahawks in 2015—spoke to the media prior to Super Bowl XLIX against the New England Patriots.

Rather than answering the questions asked of him, Lynch would only say, "I'm just here so I won't get fined," multiple times:

Lynch was never a big fan of speaking to the media, so he found a loophole to fulfill his obligations without having to say much at all.

The Seahawks went on to lose Super Bowl XLIX when quarterback Russell Wilson threw an interception at New England's goal line in the closing seconds, and head coach Pete Carroll has received plenty of criticism ever since for not handing Lynch the ball instead.

Giannis' spoof of Lynch came on the heels of Milwaukee dropping each of the first two games of the 2021 NBA Finals to the Phoenix Suns.

It was unclear going into the series whether Antetokounmpo would be able to play at all after suffering a leg injury in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Atlanta Hawks, but he has been up to the challenge.

In a Game 2 loss to Phoenix on Thursday, Giannis put up 42 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and three blocks. He received little help from his teammates, though, resulting in a 118-108 defeat.

The Bucks' backs are against the wall as the series shifts back to Milwaukee since a loss in Game 3 would likely face the Bucks with an insurmountable deficit.

The fact that Giannis is in good spirits despite the 2-0 series deficit may be a positive sign for the Bucks, as they prepare for Game 3 on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET.

The Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo said Thursday he's confident teammate Jrue Holiday will bounce back after a slow start to the 2021 NBA Finals.

Holiday has connected on just 11 of his 35 shot attempts (31.4 percent) through the first two games of the Finals as the Phoenix Suns surged to a 2-0 series lead.

"I know he's going to be there when we need him the most, and I don't worry about it," Antetokounmpo told reporters after a 118-108 loss in Game 2. "He's a great basketball player. He's played great all year, and he's going to continue to play great for this team."

Holiday has found a way to impact the Finals in other ways, tallying 16 assists, 12 rebounds, two steals and two blocks while playing his typically strong defense, but the Bucks will need him to make his presence felt offensively if they're going to forge a comeback.

The 31-year-old UCLA product was aggressive attacking the rim Thursday night but couldn't get his shots to fall, going just 7-of-21 from the field.

"I think we had a lot of open shots that we didn't make," Holiday said. "I know me personally, there were a couple layups there that I usually make that kind of rimmed in and out. Had some good looks."

Holiday and the other three non-Giannis members of the starting lineup combined to make only 19 of their 52 field-goal attempts (36.5 percent) in Game 2, which squandered a standout showing from Antetokounmpo, who went 15-of-22 en route to 42 points.

"Just keep talking to him, keep telling him to be aggressive," Antetokounmpo said about what he'd tell Holiday for Game 3. "No matter what's going on, you've got to stay aggressive and you cannot get in your feelings. It's hard not to. You know, NBA Finals, 20,000 people booing you and all that, it's kind of hard."

Although the Suns are in the driver's seat with their 2-0 lead, the Bucks have been in this position before during their playoff run. They dropped the first two contests against the Brooklyn Nets before mounting a comeback to advance in seven games.

If they're going to replicate that comeback, Antetokounmpo is going to need more help from Holiday and Khris Middleton to keep pace with a deep Phoenix offensive attack led by Devin Booker and Chris Paul.

A critical Game 3 is scheduled for Sunday night at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo said coming back from an 0-2 series deficit in the 2021 NBA Finals against the Phoenix Suns is "going to be all mental."

The Suns scored a 118-108 victory in Game 2 to successfully defend their home floor as the series shifts to Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee for the next two contests.

"I think no matter what we say, we know what the deal is," Antetokounmpo told reporters Thursday. "It's as simple as that. We've got to go back home and do our job. They did their job. We've got to do our job."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTS5ybKLJQ4

The Bucks trailed by 11 at halftime Thursday night after being outscored 30-16 in the second quarter. They made a couple of mini-runs in the second half, getting Phoenix's lead down to five with just under nine minutes left in the fourth quarter, but could never sustain the comeback bid.

Devin Booker paced the Suns offense with 31 points, while Antetokounmpo was terrific in defeat with 42 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and three blocks.

Milwaukee also dropped the first two games of its Eastern Conference Semifinal series against the Brooklyn Nets on the road before winning four of the next five games, including all three on its home floor.

A similar comeback will be necessary if the Bucks are going to capture their second championship in franchise history and the first since 1971.

If Milwaukee is going to storm back, it's going to need more production from players not named Giannis Antetokounmpo. The rest of the team combined to shoot just 38 percent from the field (27 of 71) in Game 2.

"But at the end of the day, it's not about me. It's not about [Jrue Holiday]. It's not about Khris [Middleton]. It's not about Coach. It's about all of us," Giannis said. "... If there's a game that you're 3-for-12 or whatever the case might be and you can rebound the ball or get a steal or do something else to help the team win, that's what it's all about right now."

Game 3 is a virtual must-win for the Bucks. In the 143 prior NBA playoff series where one team took a 3-0 lead, they went on to win every single time, per Land of Basketball.

It sets the stage for a massively important battle when the series resumes Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

After their 118-108 Game 2 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Phoenix Suns are halfway to the first championship in franchise history.

And on Thursday, they had to overcome an historic performance from two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Playing on a left knee that is clearly still bothering him (he left the game during a stretch of the fourth quarter for treatment after a blocked shot), Giannis racked up an absurd 42 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, three blocks and a steal. He was plus-three in a game the Bucks lost by 10.

It was just the sixth time in NBA Finals history that a player went for at least 40 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. The other five came courtesy of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal (who did it three times, all in the 2000 Finals). And prior to Thursday, nobody had lost a 40-10-3 game.

When you look at the rest of Milwaukee's box score, it's not hard to see why Giannis is now the only member of that club.

Bucks not named Antetokounmpo went 27-of-71 (38.0 percent) from the field. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday combined to go 12-of-37 (32.4 percent).

With the possible exception of Pat Connaughton (who had 14 points and four threes), Giannis' supporting cast was, in a word, a disaster.

The Suns—who have decent length and toughness among their wings and forwards, a heady point-of-attack defender in Chris Paul and a budding rim protector in Deandre Ayton—deserve some credit, but the less celebrated Bucks have to shoot better.

This roster was smartly assembled with Giannis' limitations in mind. He wasn't likely to develop into a top-tier shooter himself, so the priority was being able to deploy floor spacers around him. Even the Bucks' center, Brook Lopez, has been empowered to put up 5.1 three-point attempts per game since he joined the team.

For the most part, the theory has worked. Giannis' drives drag multiple defenders inside, which creates precious extra fractions of a second for the shooters on kickouts. Those shooters, in turn, make defenders think about staying home on the perimeter, which opens up the paint a bit for Antetokounmpo.

The symbiosis has given Milwaukee the best winning percentage in the league (.714) over the past three seasons (by a lot). But in all three postseasons, opponents have attempted to wall off the paint by throwing bodies at Giannis, and the shooters haven't made them pay.

In the series they lost in 2019 and 2020, the Bucks shot 31.7 percent from three. This postseason, following an uninspiring 9-of-31 in Game 2 of the Finals, they're at...31.7 percent.

It has yet to doom Milwaukee, which cruised past the Miami Heat in the first round, knocked off a hobbled Brooklyn Nets squad in the second round and finished off the Atlanta Hawks without Giannis in the Eastern Conference Finals. This series against Phoenix isn't over, but it feels different than those previous three.

Just over a week ago, in Game 4 against Atlanta, Antetokounmpo suffered what appeared to be a brutal knee injury. The hyperextension that happened when he landed on Clint Capela's foot made his leg bow backward in a terribly unnatural way. That he's playing at all right now is remarkable.

"Twenty-four hours a day," Giannis said of the amount of time he spent rehabbing the injury leading up to the Finals. "...I haven't watched the clip, but when the play happened, I thought I'm going to be out for a year. ... So, I'm just happy that, two games later, I'm back."

There have been moments in both Finals games when he didn't quite look like himself. Every fall seems to induce a bit of breath-holding for observers. There is some wincing here and there. But even that suggests Wolverine-like healing ability. For him to be anywhere near his 100-percent self doesn't seem possible when you watch video of the injury.

Suns defenders can likely attest to a slowed Giannis still being a nightmare to deal with. On Thursday, he was 14-of-17 on two-point shots. He got to the line for 18 free-throw attempts. His willingness to draw fouls is, in itself, admirable. Plenty of NBA players might shy away from the contact after some airballs and the aggressive counting he's heard from fans in all four series. Not Giannis. He just keeps attacking, bum knee, obnoxious crowds and all.

In totality, it really has been a heroic return for Milwaukee's best player. He's doing more than most could've possibly expected. Now, he needs his teammates rise to the occasion.

A few, including Holiday and Middleton, have had their moments this postseason. But those two are a combined 42.2 percent from the field and 31.7 percent from three in the playoffs. They simply have to be better to make this series competitive.

As the Phoenix crowd raucously chanted "Suns in four!" with two minutes left in the fourth quarter, it was hard to disagree with them. This might just be a season of destiny for the legendary CP3. It's a leveling-up for Devin Booker, who appears to be going from star to superstar. And it's a full-fledged breakout for Ayton.

Even if Giannis' supporting cast plays a bit better at home, there's no guarantee they can overcome the depth and tenacity of the Suns. If he doesn't get a little more from Holiday, Middleton and company, though, "Suns in four" could be the calling card of the 2021 postseason.

The Phoenix Suns are two wins away from their first-ever championship after defeating the visiting Milwaukee Bucks 118-108 in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Thursday.

Phoenix put on an offensive clinic, making 20-of-40 three-pointers and dishing 26 assists. Six players made at least two three-pointers, with the team's leading scorer, Devin Booker, hitting seven from beyond the arc en route to 31 points.

Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo was sensational in defeat, posting 42 points on 15-of-22 shooting (11-of-18 from the free throw line) and 12 rebounds.

However, his teammates largely struggled, with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday notably combining for 28 points on 12-of-37 shooting.

Phoenix took a 2-0 lead in the best-of-seven series.

    

Notable Performances

Suns SG Devin Booker: 31 points, 6 assists, 5 rebounds

Suns SF Mikal Bridges: 26 points, 7 rebounds

Suns PG Chris Paul: 23 points, 8 assists

Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo: 42 points, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks

Bucks F Khris Middleton: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals

Bucks G Jrue Holiday: 17 points, 7 assists, 2 steals

   

Suns' Three-Point Barrage and Clutch Play Too Much for Bucks

Phoenix has put on two offensive clinics in this series. The first one resulted in Paul, Booker and Deandre Ayton combining for 81 points in a 118-105 Game 1 win.

The second one happened Thursday on a night where Phoenix destroyed Milwaukee with adept outside shooting and phenomenal teamwork.

Milwaukee got off to a hot start, taking a 21-12 lead after seven minutes. However, Phoenix was able to keep pace with eight three-pointers, nearly matching an NBA Finals record for a single quarter.

SUNS 🔥 ALERT

8 1st quarter triples for Phoenix.. the #NBAFinals record for a quarter is 9.

📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/6rTNVvZPbO

— NBA (@NBA) July 9, 2021

Those threes enabled Phoenix to stay within striking distance, and Milwaukee led just 29-26 after one.

The second quarter was all Suns, though, as they outscored the Bucks 30-16 to take a 56-45 halftime edge.

The three-point shot wasn't as prominent in this frame, but it served as a backbreaker right before half.

With the Suns up 48-43, Holiday delivered an incredible block on Ayton, meeting him at the rim to prevent the easy bucket:

JRUE. HOLIDAY. BLOCK. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/fPpQMWapEq

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 9, 2021

However, the Suns retained possession, which ended with a Mikal Bridges three-pointer for an eight-point edge.

And then the Suns channeled the early-to-mid 2010s San Antonio Spurs with some fantastic team-wide ball movement, which ended with an Ayton bucket and a 55-45 advantage:

This passing by the Suns 🔥 https://t.co/dNlDdxhhTE

— NBA TV (@NBATV) July 9, 2021

In the second half, the Suns had to withstand an all-time performance from Antetokounmpo after he scored 20 third-quarter points.

However, the offense kept rolling in the second half thanks largely to Booker, who delivered five threes after halftime.

He also delivered a clutch assist on a three from Chris Paul, who beat the shot clock to give the Suns a 74-66 third-quarter advantage:

Oculus #UnbelievablePlay from Booker to CP3 to beat the buzzer for one of the Suns 17 threes!

7-point game in the 4Q.. #NBAFinals on ABC pic.twitter.com/r2vLS9Foa5

— NBA (@NBA) July 9, 2021

But Booker's finest moment occurred in the fourth, when he scored nine points on a trio of three-pointers in an 11-2 run. This one put Phoenix up 98-88:

DEVIN BOOKER HAS 28.

The @Suns go back up 10 in Game 2!#NBAFinals on ABC pic.twitter.com/WBMbxYNTKp

— NBA (@NBA) July 9, 2021

The Bucks showed great resolve in keeping up with the Suns, and they even had a chance to cut the lead to 103-100. A three from Bucks guard Pat Connaughton with 4:41 left was no good, leading to a back-breaking sequence.

Paul and Booker missed shots on the other end, but the Suns grabbed the offensive rebound each time. CP3 then delivered a huge blow, nailing a triple to put Phoenix up nine:

"Ayton the rebound.. Paul for 3.. BANG!"@Suns up 11 under 2 to play on ABC. #NBAFinals pic.twitter.com/KYXlKAJ9Pf

— NBA (@NBA) July 9, 2021

The Suns led by eight or more points for the rest of the game, putting them two wins away from their first title since their NBA debut in 1968.

    

Giannis Great, But Rest of Bucks Largely Struggle in Game 2 Loss

Nine days ago, Antetokounmpo suffered a hyperextended left knee that forced him to miss two-plus playoff games and put the rest of his postseason in doubt.

That injury is apparently long forgotten as Antetokounmpo was nothing short of spectacular Thursday.

For starters, he scored 20 third-quarter points, putting him on a list that includes just him and NBA legend Michael Jordan:

Giannis Antetokounmpo's 20 third-quarter points tonight are the most in an NBA Finals quarter since Michael Jordan on June 16, 1993 (22 points in 2Q). pic.twitter.com/sL1SdJLjGe

— NBA History (@NBAHistory) July 9, 2021

He also stands alone on a Bucks franchise list, a remarkable feat considering that all-time great and NBA leading scorer Kareem Abdul-Jabbar played in two NBA Finals for the team:

Giannis is the first player in Bucks franchise history with 40+ points and 10+ rebounds in a Finals game. pic.twitter.com/xTChWsIflJ

— StatMuse (@statmuse) July 9, 2021

The Bucks entered halftime down 11 points, and Phoenix's offense didn't let up in the second half.

It was up to Antetokounmpo to give Milwaukee any semblance of a chance at winning this game, and he proceeded to score 20 of the Bucks' 33 third-quarter points to keep pace with the Suns.

He did it all in the third quarter, even nailing a three-pointer early on:

Giannis for three!! pic.twitter.com/6LY5gFy3EV

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 9, 2021

Antetokounmpo also went to work in the paint on Ayton for two:

Giannis is DOMINATING. pic.twitter.com/WsqOVdRYhV

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 9, 2021

He excelled defensively as well, blocking a Paul shot that led to a Connaughton three-pointer:

https://twitter.com/Bucks/status/1413327979019595776

The Bucks survived the Suns' offensive onslaught and trailed by 10 going into the fourth. Milwaukee got it going in the final frame once again thanks to Antetokounmpo, who got another block that led to a bucket, this time from Brook Lopez:

https://twitter.com/Bucks/status/1413334677251792900

He still went to work on the other end and nailed a one-legged fadeaway jumper on Ayton to cut the Suns' lead to six:

Giannis is in his bag. pic.twitter.com/g7fQIwxGtn

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 9, 2021

But the Bucks simply didn't do enough around him offensively to get the win.

Outside of Connaughton, the Bucks shot just 5-of-22 (22.7 percent) from beyond the arc. The Bucks' bench, excluding Connaughton, combined for just three field goals.

Connaughton deserves much credit for contributing 14 points and seven boards in 33 minutes, and he was clearly the second-best Buck on Thursday. 

The Bucks ultimately need more from their starters, though. Holiday has been very impressive defensively, but he hasn't fared well shooting. Statmuse provided this comparison between Holiday and his point guard predecessor, Eric Bledsoe.

Eric Bledsoe playoff shooting splits with the Bucks:
— 41.1 FG%
— 25.4 3P%
— 73.2 FT%

Jrue Holiday playoff shooting splits with the Bucks:
— 41.1 FG%
— 28.9 3P%
— 67.3 FT% pic.twitter.com/1PRn67M4k2

— StatMuse (@statmuse) July 9, 2021

He has shot 11-of-35 from the field in the NBA Finals.

It wasn't Middleton's night either, as he hit just 5-of-16 shots and finished with 11 points, or fewer than half of his postseason average (23.7 PPG entering the night). He had just two points in the final 18 minutes of the game and none in the fourth quarter.

The Bucks need far more from Middleton, Holiday and the rest of the Bucks around Antetokounmpo to stay in this series.

Giannis on (75:28): Bucks +4

Giannis off (20:32): Bucks -27

— Sam Quinn (@SamQuinnCBS) July 9, 2021

The good news is that Antetokounmpo is looking unstoppable, so the Bucks could very well manage to claw back in this matchup so long as they start making a few more shots around him.

What's Next?

Milwaukee will host Phoenix for Game 3 on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET.

The Phoenix Suns won Game 1 of the 2021 NBA Finals, but the biggest takeaway from Tuesday's contest came from the Milwaukee Bucks.

Giannis Antetokounmpo's knee appeared to look fine, and that could set him up for a successful series. His floor presence affects the usage of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, and it could influence how the Suns game-plan offensively if his length causes trouble.

The three Milwaukee stars, Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton are the safest players to bet from a prop perspective. Others, such as Brook Lopez, may see their production fluctuate throughout the series as both coaches try to pick out the right matchups for Thursday's Game 2 and beyond.

                

NBA Finals Game 2 Odds

Spread: Phoenix (-5.5)

Over/Under: 220

Moneyline: Phoenix -225 (bet $225 to win $100); Milwaukee +188 (bet $100 to win $188)

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

             

Predictions

Chris Paul Over 21.5 Points

Chris Paul's points over is one of the most attainable totals on the board.

With Antetokounmpo's point total still in question, Paul could once again be the highest scorer in Game 2. Paul had 32 points in Game 1, while Antetokounmpo only had 20.

In his past three games, Paul had 22 points or more. He has scored at least 22 points in five games this postseason. All of those performances occurred in the second round or later.

Paul displayed an ability to take over games in the third and fourth quarters, so even if he starts slow, it should not affect his point total. In fact, Paul did not record a single point in the first quarter of Game 1 and still finished with the best scoring output.

That high level of production can't be ignored, and as long as his point prop is below 25, Paul's over must be considered. If you think he scores in bunches again, you can back him to score 25 points at +166 and to score 30 points at +500.

          

Brook Lopez Under 12.5 Points

Antetokounmpo's return should affect Lopez's production.

In the first four games of the Eastern Conference Finals, Lopez totaled 40 points. He had 50 in the last two games versus the Atlanta Hawks without Antetokounmpo.

Even though Lopez recorded 17 points in Game 1, that total should dip as Antetokounmpo attempts more shots and the Bucks make adjustments to the Suns lineup.

Lopez did not play in the fourth quarter Tuesday as Mike Budenholzer opted for a smaller lineup that put Bryn Forbes and Pat Connaughton around Milwaukee's three stars.

Milwaukee won the fourth quarter by three points, and Antetokounmpo limited Ayton to four points while guarding him as the center in that configuration.

If Lopez's minutes decrease again, he will take fewer shots and might not see double figures in the point column. Even if he plays a good amount, all signs point to a scoring regression, with Antetokounmpo likely in line to take more than 11 field goals.

Lopez carries some intrigue to hit two three-point shots at +174. If Antetokounmpo takes up space in the paint, Lopez will move out to the wing. However, it is hard to see Lopez being effective in Game 2 with so many other options at Budenholzer's disposal.

            

Score Prediction

Phoenix 120, Milwaukee 113

Milwaukee hung with Phoenix for most of Game 1 with Antetokounmpo working his way back into a game rhythm.

The Greek superstar played 35 minutes Tuesday, so he should feel comfortable enough to test out his knee more when it comes to driving into the lane on offense.

But even if the Bucks receive more points from their superstar, there is no guarantee they will stop Phoenix's top three players.

Paul, Booker and Ayton combined for 81 of the team's 118 Game 1 points. If they are not slowed in Game 2, Milwaukee will not have a path to victory.

The Bucks could keep the game close, but that may only help gain a bit of confidence ahead of Game 3 on their home court.

                   

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from Basketball Reference.

          

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Game 1 of the NBA Finals is in the books, and both the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks unveiled their plans of attack. The Suns ran off with a 13-point, 118-105 victory to take a 1-0 series lead. However, both teams have some issues they will need to address before Thursday's Game 2 in Arizona. 

The first contest of a playoff series is always about feeling each other out. Teams are putting their strategies into practice and finding out what works or what doesn't. Now comes the hard part: planning the next matchup. 

Milwaukee will have to rethink its approach. Phoenix, on the other hand, will need to keep an eye on the injury report and look at what effect it might have on its rotation. 

      

Bucks' Biggest Concern

The biggest X's and O's question for the Bucks heading into the series was how they would cover the Suns' pick-and-roll action. None of those concerns were allayed in Game 1, and it turned out to be a bigger problem for Milwaukee than many would have imagined.

For most of the season, the Bucks have primarily been a drop-coverage team. Toward the end of the last series against the Atlanta Hawks, they became more of a switch-everything team. They had some success with Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis switching onto guards and getting stops. 

But none of those Hawks guards are nearly as good in the pick-and-roll as Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Despite that, the Bucks stayed with their newfound switching scheme to start the series, but it didn't provide the same results. 

For two-and-a-half quarters, Paul and Booker hunted for Lopez. It came to a head early in the third frame, when Paul got Lopez to switch onto him and hit a side-step mid-range jumper. A few possessions later, Paul got Lopez switched onto him again and hit an and-1 three that was later upgraded to a flagrant foul. 

Not long after that possession, the Bucks went back to using Lopez in drop coverage, but that did not slow the red-hot Suns. Below, Paul comes off the Deandre Ayton screen to attack Lopez, who is hanging back in the paint, and it opens up the lob to Ayton for the dunk. Then Paul drives through the paint into a mid-range shot without any stress. 

After these plays, Lopez was subbed out and didn't return to the game. The Suns played the big man off the court. 

Lopez was not the only one Phoenix's tandem picked on. Bobby Portis became the next target. And even when the Bucks went small, the Suns still had another target to attack in Bryn Forbes. Phoenix began going into small-ball pick-and-rolls to get that switch. Below, P.J. Tucker switches off easily, and Booker has an opportunity to go at Forbes for a mid-range jumper. 

The Bucks had no answer for the Suns' pick-and-roll actions all night, so it is back to the drawing board for Mike Budenholzer and his staff. They had some success when they went small in the fourth, but it still does not completely cover them, with Forbes being vulnerable. They also do not have enough bodies to stay small for long stretches with Donte DiVincenzo missing since the first round of the playoffs. 

Budenholzer acknowledged in his postgame press conference that the pick-and-roll was a problem. "We have to keep looking at the film and see how we can maybe take away some of the rhythm, or make it where [Paul's] not getting into his spots as easily. That will be a big part of looking between Game 1 and Game 2."

If the Bucks cannot find an answer for the Suns' devastating pick-and-roll, this will be a short series. 

        

Suns' Biggest Concern

Even in victory, the Suns lost Dario Saric to a torn ACL. Toward the end of the first quarter, he appeared to injure his knee and didn't return. Though Saric may not be well-known, his absence means head coach Monty Williams has to reexamine his rotation.

Saric has been the Suns' backup 5 and could stretch the floor. The injury forced Williams to turn to Frank Kaminsky, who hadn't played since garbage time in Game 3 of the second round against the Denver Nuggets. In his first meaningful minutes in a month, he put up zeros across the box score and did not see any action in the second half. 

Ayton played all of the third quarter and started the fourth before Williams gave him a rest. Instead of going with Kaminsky, he went with Jae Crowder and decided to go small. With Booker, Cameron Payne, Cameron Johnson and Torrey Craig on the floor, the Suns' lead dropped to single digits, and the Bucks looked like they had some new life. 

Ayton sat for just three minutes and 36 seconds of the 24 minutes in the second half and played 38:44 total minutes. With Saric out, Williams will need to find a lineup he can trust for at least 10 minutes or if Ayton gets into foul trouble, which is possible while the big man defends Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The first game of a series is when teams find out if their strategies will work, but despite the victory, the Suns lost a significant cushion for Ayton's minutes. On the other side, one of the Bucks' biggest concerns heading into the Game 1 got even bigger.

     

Mo Dakhil spent six years with the Los Angeles Clippers and two years with the San Antonio Spurs as a video coordinator, as well as three years with the Australian men's national team. Follow him on Twitter, @MoDakhil_NBA. 

Milwaukee Bucks superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo said he isn't bothered by fans counting loudly during his free-throw routine.

When asked about the sensation that has followed him throughout the playoffs, Giannis put a positive spin on it, per Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today:

"Of course, 20,000 people yelling, 'One, two, three, four,' you notice that. I think it's something that's going to follow me for the rest of my career. So, I've just got to embrace it and have fun with it. But at the end of the day I'm just focusing on my routine, my technique, my body, and as I said, it's not going to stop, so I just have to learn to live with it."

The act of fans counting during Giannis' free-throw routine began during the first round of the playoffs when the Bucks swept the Miami Heat.

Players are allowed 10 seconds to take their free throws or they can be called for a violation. With officials rarely calling Giannis for a violation despite his lengthy setup, Heat fans decided to lend the referees a hand.

The counting was a hit and continued during a second-round series against the Brooklyn Nets and the Eastern Conference Finals against the Atlanta Hawks.

Antetokounmpo heard it during Game 1 of the NBA Finals against the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night as well:

Here’s the second FT pic.twitter.com/s67bnvpbyv

— Kellan Olson (@KellanOlson) July 7, 2021

Giannis unexpectedly played Tuesday after missing the final two games of the Eastern Conference Finals with a left knee injury.

It was unclear how much Giannis would be able to give the Bucks, but he played well in the 118-105 loss, contributing 20 points, 17 rebounds and four assists in 35 minutes.

Antetokounmpo did struggle at the free-throw line, though, making just seven of his 12 attempts.

Free-throw shooting has never been a strong point of Giannis' game, but he did shoot 72.0 percent or better from the line in five straight seasons from 2014-15 to 2018-19.

His mark dipped to 63.3 percent last season and settled at 68.5 percent this season. He has been especially poor from the charity stripe in this year's playoffs, shooting just 54.1 percent.

Given that Giannis hasn't shot well from the line since the counting started, it stands to reason that it won't go away any time soon.