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Fiesta Bowl 2022: Latest Odds, Prediction for Michigan vs. TCU Playoff

Dec 10, 2022
Michigan running back Donovan Edwards warms up before the start of the Big Ten championship NCAA college football game between Michigan and Purdue, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)
Michigan running back Donovan Edwards warms up before the start of the Big Ten championship NCAA college football game between Michigan and Purdue, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

Last season, Michigan made its debut in the College Football Playoff. It didn't end up being a great showing for the Wolverines, though, as they lost in lopsided fashion to Georgia in the Orange Bowl, a semifinal matchup.

That performance didn't stop the program's momentum, however.

On Dec. 31, No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 TCU will meet in the Fiesta Bowl with a berth in the CFP National Championship Game on the line at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

Here's everything else you need to know heading into this year's Fiesta Bowl.

Latest Fiesta Bowl Odds

Spread: Michigan -8

Over/Under: 58.5 points

Moneyline: Michigan -305 (bet $305 to win $100); TCU +255 (bet $100 to win $255)

Via DraftKings Sportsbook

Preview, Prediction

Georgia isn't the only team entering the College Football Playoff as an undefeated conference champion. Michigan has been just as impressive throughout the 2022 season.

The Wolverines are 13-0 heading into the Fiesta Bowl, and they've mostly dominated their opponents. They took down Ohio State in the regular-season finale to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, where they then cruised to victory against Purdue.

However, Michigan will be without its star running back in the CFP. Junior Blake Corum is out for the rest of the season after undergoing knee surgery.

But the Wolverines have had a suitable replacement in their past two games. Sophomore Donovan Edwards has rushed for 401 yards and three touchdowns in Michigan's past two victories.

Michigan will likely need to rely on Edwards in its matchup against TCU, which has had an impressive season in its own right.

The Horned Frogs won their first 12 games of the season, which set them up for a matchup against Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. They lost to the Wildcats 31-28 in overtime, but the CFP selection committee determined that TCU was still deserving of the No. 3 seed.

Senior quarterback Max Duggan, a four-year starter for the Horned Frogs, has passed for 3,321 yards, 30 touchdowns and four interceptions, which earned him a spot as one of the four finalists for the Heisman Trophy.

The Fiesta Bowl could be a significant step up for Duggan and the offense, though. Michigan's defense is allowing only 277.1 total yards per game, which is the third-fewest among all FBS teams.

The Wolverines may shut down the Horned Frogs at times. And with some of Michigan's players having previously experienced the CFP, it's in good shape to fare better than it did at the end of last season.

The Wolverines will run the ball well and play strong defense (as they so often do) and handily win the Fiesta Bowl. Then, they may have a rematch against Georgia awaiting them in the CFP National Championship Game.

Prediction: Michigan 34, TCU 17

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Heisman Race 2022: List of Finalists for Coveted Trophy Announced

Dec 5, 2022
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on October 08, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 08: Caleb Williams #13 of the USC Trojans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on October 08, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

USC's Caleb Williams, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Georgia's Stetson Bennett and TCU's Max Duggan will be heading to New York City for the 2022 Heisman Trophy ceremony after being named finalists Monday.

By this point in the season, the consensus has typically coalesced around one player as the Heisman favorite. Perhaps the voting will ultimately be pretty one-sided, but this seems to be a somewhat open race, especially after a topsy-turvy final few weeks.

Stroud's candidacy might have suffered a fatal blow with Ohio State's 45-23 loss to Michigan, a game that saw him finish 31-of-48 for 349 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

It's not often a player finishes significantly higher on the Heisman ballot—Stroud was fourth in 2021—after posting worse numbers than the year before.

In the same number of games, the Buckeyes star has 1,095 fewer passing yards (3,340), fewer touchdowns (37) and worse efficiency (66.2 percent completion rate and a 176.2 passer rating).

Williams became the front-runner with Stroud's campaign losing steam, only for USC to fall in the Pac-12 title game and miss out on a College Football Playoff berth.

The sophomore shouldn't shoulder much blame for the 47-24 defeat. He played through a hamstring injury and went 28-of-41 for 363 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, and he was a bystander as the Trojans defense allowed 533 yards to the Utah offense.

If anything, the outcome underscored Williams' value to the team and how much his performance helped compensate for a suspect defense. In 13 games, he threw for 4,075 yards, 37 touchdowns and four interceptions and ran for 372 yards and 10 scores.

Of the players still in the Heisman discussion, Bennett unquestionably had the best championship week. He threw for 274 yards and four touchdowns as Georgia dropped 50 points on LSU in the SEC title game.

It might have come far too late to change the minds of the voters, though. The Bulldogs quarterback didn't put up gaudy numbers (3,425 passing yards and 20 touchdowns) overall.

The same goes for Duggan.

The senior quarterback undoubtedly played a massive role in TCU finishing 12-1 and reaching the CFP semifinals, but it's tough to make a case for why he was the most outstanding player in FBS. Duggan posted 3,321 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and a 165.5 passer rating in the regular season.

The Heisman will be handed out Saturday at 8 p.m. ET.

Sonny Dykes: 'For Sure' I Believe TCU Belongs in CFP Despite Loss vs. Kansas State

Dec 3, 2022
FORT WORTH, TX - NOVEMBER 26: Head coach Sonny Dykes of the TCU Horned Frogs watches from the sidelines as TCU takes on the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
FORT WORTH, TX - NOVEMBER 26: Head coach Sonny Dykes of the TCU Horned Frogs watches from the sidelines as TCU takes on the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

After missing a chance to win the Big 12 championship and all but assure itself a spot in the College Football Playoff with a 31-28 overtime loss to Kansas State on Saturday, TCU finds itself at the mercy of the selection committee to make the Top Four when the final rankings are announced.

Speaking to reporters following his team's defeat, head coach Sonny Dykes was asked if the Horned Frogs deserve to be in the playoff.

"For sure I do," he responded.

Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman agreed with Dykes' assessment of TCU's playoff chances.

TCU entered Saturday's conference title game with a 12-0 record and ranked No. 3 in the College Football Playoff standings.

The playoff rankings were already in for a shake-up after Friday when No. 4 USC got blown out by Utah 47-24 in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Trojans' defeat certainly helps TCU because it gives the selection committee two spots it has to think about.

Georgia and Michigan are the top two teams in the rankings and will play their conference title games later in the day.

The top two teams on the outside of the playoff in the most recent rankings were Ohio State at No. 5 and Alabama at No. 6.

USA Today's Dan Wolken laid out the reasons why he is skeptical that a two-loss Alabama team would jump TCU when the final rankings are released:

TCU's regular-season schedule does work to its advantage if there is a debate. It entered Saturday with the best strength of record in the country, per ESPN.com. Its record includes a previous win over Kansas State on Oct. 22 and No. 20 Texas.

If you want to find a way for the selection committee to knock TCU, its schedule doesn't look as impressive as it once did.

The Horned Frogs' victories over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas looked good at the time when those teams were all ranked in the Top 20 of the Associated Press poll, but they finished the season with a combined 19-17 record.

Of course, the same argument can be made for Alabama. The Crimson Tide also hold a victory over Texas, but its only other win against a team in the current playoff Top 25 was over No. 24 Mississippi State.

Dykes is certainly biased in campaigning for his own team, but it's hard to argue any of the teams that could potentially be in the mix have a strong enough resume to leapfrog TCU.

The final College Football Playoff rankings will be unveiled Sunday at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.

2022 College Football Playoff Rankings: TCU, Your Spotlight Has Arrived

Nov 9, 2022
Max Duggan
Max Duggan

After a few days of waiting and wondering, the TCU Horned Frogs are officially fourth in the newest College Football Playoff rankings.

But as the Horned Frogs enter the decisive stretch of the regular season, they're No. 1 in the spotlight.

We fully expected top-ranked Georgia would be here, along with fellow front-runners Ohio State and Michigan.

TCU even close to the Top Four, though? Not at all.

Last offseason, the program fired longtime coach Gary Patterson. Sonny Dykes arrived from nearby SMU and brought a high-powered offensive system, but TCU looked more like a bowl candidate than a Big 12 contender. Max Duggan, who didn't even win the quarterback competition initially, has become a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate.

Through 10 weeks, the surging program—one that posted a 23-24 mark over the last four seasons—holds a 9-0 record with a straightforward path to the CFP. Win out, and TCU will be a part of the Playoff.

As much as you or I might be eager to see a real CFP controversy, there's no chance that a 13-0 power-conference champion would be excluded from the national semifinals. However, the Horned Frogs' potential road to 13-0 is stacked with major obstacles.

On Saturday night, they travel to face No. 18 Texas (6-3). Next weekend, they head to rival Baylor (6-3). To close the regular season, TCU hosts Iowa State (4-5), a pesky program with three straight victories in the series.

Then there's the Big 12 Championship Game for a likely showdown with a nine-win opponent.

This is an ideal, much-needed stretch for TCU to eliminate any doubters lingering within the CFP Selection Committee. Because, folks, the Horned Frogs have at least a few of those.

In the initial CFP poll, TCU landed at No. 7 behind Alabama. Committee chair Boo Corrigan cited TCU's lack of a dominant defense as a weakness and evidence for why it trailed the one-loss Crimson Tide. Suspect reasoning, for sure, but nonetheless what we heard.

You know what muffles those criticisms? More wins.

Corrigan also pointed to the Horned Frogs' need for comebacks—against Oklahoma State and Kansas State—as a negative in the comparisons. That happened again in Week 10 with another late surge to beat Texas Tech.

You know what silences that flimsy justification? More wins, no matter what the scoreboard reads in the third quarter.

"As you know," Corrigan said Tuesday on ESPN, "we value wins."

Funny how quickly the tone changes.

Now, sure, the elusive "game control" is a plausible reason to keep TCU behind a more impressive undefeated team with a weaker schedule such as Michigan. We can talk about TCU's resume as it stands, too.

Spun positively, TCU has toppled four opponents that were ranked at the time of the game. In the moment, Oklahoma (3-1), Kansas (5-0), Oklahoma State (5-0) and Kansas State (5-1) each owned excellent records. It isn't TCU's fault that all four programs have since lost another game, or that key injuries have plagued each of those rosters.

On the other hand, a team's year-end record is a more accurate measure of any program. While the Big 12 is deep, it lacks a second upper-tier contender given that everyone beyond TCU has three-plus losses.

You don't have to agree—or disagree—with either rationale. Both are logical explanations of TCU's situation.

But that's simply a sidebar of more impactful results to come.

As we remind you in early and mid-November every single year, the arguments of note on this particular Tuesday might not even be important in a week. Or in two weeks, three weeks, or on Selection Day.

TCU might use any perceived slight as motivational fuel, but the only storyline that matters is Saturday's result at Texas. And then the showdown at Baylor, the clash with Iowa State and a possible spot in the Big 12 title game.

Want more respect, TCU? The spotlight—your opportunity—is here.