Fantasy

Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler will have a lightning bolt on his helmet, but fantasy football managers may easily mistake that logo for a shining star in a breakout 2021 season. 

After Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook come off the board at the top of fantasy drafts, Ekeler fits into the Tier 2 category among dual-threat running backs. 

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, he has a 1.11 average draft position (ADP), which gives managers with late first-round picks a shot at a high-upside player who has the potential to finish top-three in scoring at his position in points-per-reception leagues.

In 2019, Ekeler racked up 1,550 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage, scoring the fourth-most fantasy points among running backs in PPR settings. During that season, he served as a backup to Melvin Gordon III but put his pass-catching ability on full display, recording 92 receptions for 993 yards and eight touchdowns.

Last year, the Chargers let Gordon walk in free agency and signed Ekeler to a four-year, $24.5 million extension. Hamstring and knee injuries cost Ekeler six games in 2020, though, and he'll look to bounce back during the upcoming campaign.

Despite the Chargers hiring Brandon Staley to replace Anthony Lynn as head coach, Ekeler seems primed to handle a majority of the workload among the club's running backs. That's a strong positive for his fantasy outlook.

With Ekeler's contract and past production, he's not going to fall behind second-year running back Joshua Kelley, Justin Jackson (who has battled injuries throughout his three-year career) or rookie sixth-rounder Larry Rountree III. Though Ekeler has never handled the bulk of the Chargers' rushing attempts in his career, expect him to touch the ball 15-20 times per outing because of his prospective role in the passing game.

Quarterback Justin Herbert will have wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the perimeter, but he can also look to Ekeler, one of the league's best receivers out of the backfield.

According to Pro Football Focus, Ekeler leads running backs in yards after the catch (1,432) and forced missed tackles (36) on receptions since 2019:

The analytics site also noted Ekeler was the only running back to log 10-plus catches in two contests in 2020:

Staley took note of Ekeler's rise through the ranks and sounds like he trusts him in every facet of the offense.

"He's a complete player. That's why he made it. He was a complete special teams player initially. He's a complete back. He can run the ball. He can run the route tree. He can pass protect. He's an intense competitor. He comes out here and does his job at a high level consistently and that example is not exclusive to running backs."

Ekeler seems confident he'll have a big role and spoke directly to fantasy football managers during a media presser.

"Hey, I'm going to get the ball, I'm going to make things happen," Ekeler said. "They're going to throw me the ball; I'm going to make things happen. If you want to get fantasy points, you better have me on your team. So, that's all I got to say. If I'm healthy, I'm going to score you points." 

Here's the final piece to the puzzle that foreshadows Ekeler's role. Chargers offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi compared his lead back to a few running backs whom he knows well.

"I know that Ekeler has some of the skill set that I'm used to seeing in New Orleans, whether it was Reggie [Bush], Darren Sproles or A.K. [Alvin Kamara]," Lombardi said on a Zoom call with reporters (starts at 9:03).

Two years ago, when Ekeler ranked ninth in scrimmage yards (1,550), he only played 57 percent of the offensive snaps behind Gordon. As the Chargers' featured running back in an every-down role, he could take the field for about two-thirds of the snaps, which may result in a monster season. 

We know about Ekeler's sure hands out of the backfield, but as the clear-cut No. 1 ball-carrier in Los Angeles, he'll likely eclipse his career high in rushing yards (557).

Similar to Kamara in three of his four campaigns, Ekeler could accumulate 700 yards both on the ground and as a receiver even with complementary running backs taking a portion of the snaps. Remember, Kamara recorded those numbers while sharing touches with Mark Ingram II and Latavius Murray.

If the comparison between Kamara and Ekeler doesn't encourage you to buy Ekeler stock, take a look at his supporting cast.

Ekeler has a rapport with Herbert, who won 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year. This offseason, the Chargers revamped their offensive line, adding versatile guard Matt Feiler, All-Pro center Corey Linsley and rookie first-rounder Rashawn Slater, who has turned heads during training camp. If Bryan Bulaga bounces back from an injury-riddled 2020 campaign, Los Angeles' front line will pay dividends on the ground and in the passing game.

Behind an improved offensive line, Ekeler will likely see wider running lanes. On passing downs, Herbert could take advantage of more time in the pocket, finding his dynamic dual-threat running back who has an 81.2 percent catch rate for his career.

For managers concerned with Ekeler's durability, he's worth the risk. The 26-year-old only missed two games in his first three seasons. Yet, the Chargers may feed him 12-14 carries per outing to preserve him for the entire campaign.

With that said, Ekeler doesn't need to log 200-plus carries to become a fantasy football star. Last season, Kamara led all running backs in PPR scoring with just 187 rush attempts. The Saints back had a prominent role in the passing game, recording 83 receptions for 756 yards and five touchdowns. Based on comments from Staley and Lombardi, Ekeler could post similar receiving numbers in 2021.

Ekeler doesn't have Kamara's established resume, but his skill set, potential usage and position on the depth chart could yield comparable fantasy results. With that ceiling, the Chargers running back is a top-eight pick in drafts this year.

Fantasy football points and scoring courtesy of FantasyPros.

For most of the first four seasons of his NFL career, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott was as good (or better) than any player in the league at his position. Elliott topped 1,300 rushing yards three times, averaged over 95 rushing yards per game an equal number of times and led the league in rushing twice.

In 2020, the former Ohio State star played in 15 games but didn't hit the 1,000-yard mark. He averaged only 65.3 yards per game, almost 20 yards lower than in any other year, and tied a career high with half a dozen fumbles.

That has caused some to question Elliott's status as one of the game's best backs. But it also had as much to do with the situation around him as it did any deterioration of Elliott's considerable skills. The 25-year-old is reportedly determined to show last year was a fluke.

And both Cowboys opponents and fantasy football managers would be well advised to take heed of that.

Per Nick Eatman of the team's website, the usually talkative Elliott chose not to speak to reporters at OTAs or minicamp. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott said Elliott looked like a man on a mission:

"Zeke looks great. He's in the best shape of his life—looking fast. Everybody's seen the clips of him working out independently with his running back coach. His cuts, just how explosive he is.

"I'm excited to have a full year with him again and getting him healthy throughout the whole season. When Zeke's healthy and Zeke's doing his thing, he's the best running back in the league. It's just exciting to see him in the best shape of his life, or [at least the] best shape he's been in the NFL. That's going to be special for us moving forward."

Reserve running back Tony Pollard—who some have said should receive more work—agreed.

"He's definitely been locked in," Pollard said. "I can tell he took the right step forward this offseason, getting his body right and being in shape. Me and him worked out together this offseason. We're both locked in this offseason getting ready."

There's admittedly a lot of stink to wash off. With Prescott on the shelf with a fractured and dislocated right ankle, Elliott's production fell off a cliff. His yards per carry (4.0), yards per reception (6.5) and rushing touchdowns (six) were all career nadirs.

But that face-plant had more to do with the situation around him than a decline in his abilities.

With Andy Dalton starting behind center for nine games and Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert one apiece, opposing defenses were free to load the box to stop the run. The offensive line was also ravaged by injuries and the retirement of five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick.

That line isn't as dominant as it once was. But it's healthy again, and after Pro Football Focus ranked it sixth-worst in 2020, the Cowboys enter the 2021 campaign with the league's sixth-best unit, according to PFF.

Prescott is healthy again, too. In wide receivers Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup and tight ends Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz, Prescott has as many passing-game weaponry as any quarterback. In five games last year, the 27-year-old averaged 371.2 passing yards.

And while Elliott fell four spots in ESPN's annual ranking of the league's top 10 backs, he still checked in at No. 7, with one AFC coach calling him the most dangerous player in the Dallas offense.

"They need to give Zeke some of Dak's money," the coach said, via ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. "He scares you the most on that offense."

It's not just Cowboys fans who should be excited about Elliott's prospects. Fantasy football enthusiasts should have him on their wish lists because Elliott has the potential to be the best value pick of 2021—a league-winner.

Yes, Elliott's 2020 campaign didn't look any better from a fantasy perspective than an NFL one. After being drafted third on average, per Fantasy Football Calculator, Elliott finished the season 16th among running backs in points-per-reception fantasy points per game. It wasn't quite the disastrous outcome that befell managers who drafted the first two backs—Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers and Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants—but it wasn't good.

However, Elliott still finished ninth in PPR points among running backs. The year before, he was fifth in PPR points per game and third in PPR points—and that was a so-so year by Elliott's standards. Prior to 2020, the lowest Elliott had finished in PPR points per game was sixth among running backs.

Elliott has been durable, playing 15 or more games four times in five seasons and 10 games in the other campaign. He has averaged 19.9 carries per contest over his career. He has been about as consistent from a fantasy perspective as a running back can be. Elliott and his situation scream "bounce back."

And he's regularly available in the back half of Round 1—in a recent industry draft, I got Elliott at 1.08.

This isn't to say Elliott is a lock to lead the NFL in rushing. Or that he will lead all running backs in fantasy points. There are no certainties when it comes to aspirations that lofty.

But after one down year wherein seemingly everything that could go wrong did, there is a perception that Elliott isn't capable of achieving those peaks anymore.

Don't act surprised when he shows that perception was incorrect.

The Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Mixon is the most undervalued running back in fantasy football. 

The Carolina Panthers' Christian McCaffrey, Minnesota Vikings' Dalvin Cook, Tennessee Titans' Derrick Henry, New Orleans Saints' Alvin Kamara and Cleveland Browns' Nick Chubb are obvious opening-round options. Mixon is every bit worthy of a first-round target. 

Instead, he is being drafted 19th overall on average in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues as the 13th running back off the board, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. His value ranks slightly lower in standard leagues. 

Opportunity, consistency and an improved surrounding cast help project a much higher standing for the 24-year-old ball-carrier. 

Mixon's usage will significantly increase this fall after the Bengals released veteran running back Giovani Bernard. The fifth-year back should easily enter workhorse territory, as The Athletic's Paul Dehner Jr. noted: 

"Assuming health, this will be the largest workload of Joe Mixon's career. Tag an extra 15-20 receptions to his previous totals by virtue of Giovani Bernard being gone. You will see Samaje Perine give him a breather for maybe a series or two a game. I'd expect Chris Evans to earn a portion of the pass situation plays as the year progresses. But for the most part, this will be all about him.

"I think you'll see him in the rarified air of the 80 percent snap rate and that should mean monster numbers." 

Dehner's assessment jibes with the Bengals' plans. 

"I don't want Joe [Mixon] to leave the field, and I think he's up for that challenge," offensive coordinator Brian Callahan told reporters.

In four seasons, Mixon produced 4,367 yards from scrimmage with 25 touchdowns. More importantly, he eclipsed more than 1,400 total yards in his two seasons as a full-time starter. A year ago, a foot injury forced him onto injured reserve after only six games. 

A healthy Mixon brings legitimate RB1 potential. 

Head coach Zac Taylor told reporters that his running back felt "really good" in March. To back up the statement, Mixon participated in organized team activities. 

Before the foot problems, the running back was trending toward fantasy football's elite. 

"I thought Joe was having a productive year for us when he got hurt. If I'm not mistaken he had as many touches as anybody in the league or the top two or three at the time of his injury," Taylor said. "Protections can continue to improve each year, but again we've seen really good things from Joe. I think he would have had a fantastic year last year had he stayed healthy, and that's the expectation for him this year."

Taylor made an excellent point regarding potential improvements in pass protection, opening the door for Mixon to have an expanded role on third downs. 

With 129 career receptions, Mixon is a capable receiver out of the backfield. But Bernard tended to serve as the third-down back because he was far more reliable in the little things like proper protection. Since Mixon joined the Bengals, Bernard has caught 155 passes. 

Sixth-round rookie Chris Evans will pick up some of the slack after Bernard's departure. 

"I'm really going to be curious to see how Chris Evans responds in training camp," Callahan said. "He's got the most natural hands for a running back that I've ever been around."

Like Mixon, the young back must earn his way onto the field by doing the right things, especially in pass protection. Evans may steal a few reps, but Mixon is clearly the team's preferred third-down option.

In a part-time role last season, Bernard tied for 11th among running backs with 47 receptions. Mixon can easily double his own production from a year ago to finish in a similar range. Among the top projected fantasy backs, only Kamara, the Dallas Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott and the Los Angeles Chargers' Austin Ekeler managed more (McCaffrey and the New York Giants' Saquon Barkley were hurt, of course). 

These are only some of the reasons why Mixon should take off in his third season under Taylor's supervision. 

His surrounding cast is better than it has ever been. Take the following into consideration: Since the Bengals chose the running back with the 48th overall pick in the '17 draft, the team's quarterback has never thrown for more than 3,494 yards or had a target eclipse 1,078 receiving yards. 

Defenses weren't threatened by Cincinnati's weapons. They will be now. 

Quarterback Joe Burrow is special. He carried the offense during his rookie campaign and worked his way into NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year contention before suffering a torn ACL and MCL in his left knee. Last year's No. 1 overall pick used the time away from the game to strengthen his body and even rework some of his mechanics.

"I've noticed quite a bit of improvement across the board, not just velocity," Callahan told reporters. "He spent a lot of time looking at the thing he wanted to get better at this season, both physically and mentally, and I think he's done over the course of the offseason program.

"He's had a goal in mind of how he wanted to change his mechanics, some of his footwork, stance and how he's going to get more velocity on the ball. I have noticed it."

Tyler Boyd has been the Bengals' most consistent wide receiver, and they should expect more out of Tee Higgins in his second year after he led the team with 908 receiving yards in 2020. 

"He looks like a different guy out there," Burrow said. "... Tee's going to have a big year."

Whether the Bengals made the right move by drafting the quarterback's favorite collegiate target, Ja'Marr Chase, with this year's fifth overall pick, no one can deny the rookie's outstanding ability. He and Burrow are already on the same page. 

"The cool thing is Joe's done that with Ja'Marr for two years, and this is the third year of doing it. They got a good rapport," Callahan said. "You can see it and feel it. They know how to communicate with each other.

The added weapons and explosive opportunities in the passing game will only create more space for Mixon to operate. 

The potential snag revolves around the team's rebuilt offensive front. Will the trench play be good enough for all of these talented skill positions performers to realize their potential? 

Cincinnati signed 10th-year veteran Riley Reiff to play tackle opposite Jonah Williams. It also selected Jackson Carman in the second round this spring. The staff will convert him to guard. Quinton Spain, who joined the Bengals' practice squad last October, will have a full offseason under his belt. Trey Hopkins is returning at center. The group is more talented than the unit from a year ago, and the play of the front five directly affects everyone on offense. 

But Mixon sure is happy about one thing: Frank Pollack's return as offensive line coach.

"Joe Mixon called me hooting and hollering about it," Burrow told reporters. 

As of now, everything appears to be trending in the running back's favor. After all, fantasy football is about what a player could do during the upcoming season, not what he's previously accomplished. From that perspective, Mixon looks to be well on his way to becoming a top performer and winning leagues for those with enough foresight to understand his rightful place among this year's running backs.  

Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski.

Dak Prescott likes what he's seen from CeeDee Lamb so far this offseason. 

"My expectations are super-high," the Dallas Cowboys quarterback said of his teammate. “I’m so excited for CeeDee. ... He’s a special playmaker that we’re privileged to have and he’ll be big-time and definitely have a breakout season." 

Lamb, the team's No. 17 overall selection out of Oklahoma in 2020, played in all 16 games as a rookie. He posted 935 receiving yards and five touchdowns, ranking second to Amari Cooper in terms of receiving yardage. 

He did that with a quarterback carousel in Dallas, where three different signal-callers worked to fill the hole left by Prescott when he went down with an ankle injury in Week 5. That effort was led largely by Andy Dalton, who is now with the Chicago Bears. 

It's a promising sentiment for Lamb since it's coming from the quarterback who will be throwing those passes yet again now that he's recovered from the injury. Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup are also back to lead the receiving group in Dallas.