Fantasy

There's no shortage of opinions every year in fantasy football. Show me an analyst who is sure that Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams will repeat as the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football, and I'll show you another convinced that 2022 will be the year of Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings.

However, where the first overall pick is concerned, there's less debate. It may not be unanimous, but the overwhelming majority of fantasy experts believe the No. 1 pick should be used on Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor.

It's not hard to see why—Taylor paced the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards last year, over 550 more than the next-closest back. Taylor recorded 2,171 total yards, found the end zone 20 times, and was fantasy football's highest-scoring running back in points-per-reception scoring systems.

But there's another player. A running back who has shown the ability to post not just RB1 numbers but truly historic ones. A player who owns not only the single-best season at the position over the last 16 years but is also capable of blowing every other running back in the league (Taylor included) out of the water. A player who can give fantasy managers a massive, league-winning edge over the competition.

That player is Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers, who was my first pick at No. 2 overall in a recent fantasy draft written up here at Bleacher Report.

Given the audible groaning and copious eye-rolling emanating from the stands after that statement, we might as well get the case against McCaffrey out of the way first.

Injuries.

There's no sugarcoating it—McCaffrey's last two seasons have been a mess. In 2020, he played in just three games due to ankle, shoulder and leg injuries. Last year, McCaffrey missed 10 games and was in and out of two more with hamstring and ankle problems.

All told, that's 23 missed games over two seasons and quite a few fantasy teams wrecked because of it. But the thing is, if injury concerns are your sole reason for fading McCaffrey early, then you should be fading Taylor, too. In fact, you should pick a wide receiver first overall.

Because injury concerns just go with the running back position.

Josh Hermsmeyer of RotoViz (h/t Kevin Tompkins of Fantasy Alarm) conducted a seven-year study of injury rates and found that running backs are 200-360 percent more likely to suffer a serious injury (four or more weeks lost) than wide receivers.

We've seen that play out with elite running backs in recent years. After leading all running backs in PPR points in 2019, McCaffrey missed most of the 2020 season. Derrick Henry topped 2,000 rushing yards last year, only to miss more than half of the 2021 campaign with a broken foot.

It's also worth noting that both McCaffrey's 2019 season and Henry's 2020 campaign put them in the crosshairs of "The Curse of 370." Long story short, running backs who eclipse 370 touches in a season tend to experience a significant drop-off the following year.

Taylor touched the ball 372 times in 2021. Just saying.

All injury histories aren't created equally, either. McCaffrey's issues over the past two years haven't required surgery, and he hasn't suffered repetitive injuries to the same body part. In the opinion of Dr. Deepak Chona at Rotoballer, McCaffrey's durability is no more concerning than any other back's.

"Yes, he missed time due to injury in each of the last two seasons. However, if you look more closely, those injuries don't form a recurring pattern. Additionally, McCaffrey tends to be among the league's best pass-catchers at the RB position. On a per-play basis, receptions pose a lower injury risk than carries, so from a touch distribution standpoint, he actually fits the prototype for the type of RB worth betting on early."

For his part, McCaffrey told Steve Smith Sr. of the NFL Network he's 100 percent healthy this year and eager to get back after it.

"Yeah, I feel great. You know, I think that's an easy way to put it. This is the best I've ever felt. Luckily, I didn't have any surgeries, no operations or anything like that. Just a bunch of annoying injuries that kept me off the field. But once again, just taking it one day at a time. I feel great right now, and that's all I'm really focused on. It's just practicing as hard as I can, recovering as hard as I can, showing up to every meeting with intent, and, you know, just putting my body, my mind and everything in the best position to succeed."

If that's the case, and McCaffrey really is 100 percent, then he could be on the verge of a massive season.

Back in 2018, McCaffrey topped 1,000 rushing yards, caught 107 passes, scored 13 total touchdowns and finished second in PPR fantasy points to Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants.

That was nothing compared to what he did in 2019. That year, McCaffrey went over the 1,000-yard mark in both rushing and receiving, caught 116 passes, found the end zone 19 times and finished as fantasy's highest-scoring running back by over 150 PPR points. That's over nine fantasy points per game better than any other back in the league.

Per StatMuse, McCaffrey has averaged just under 22.5 PPR points per game over his career—more than any other running back in modern history. More than LaDainian Tomlinson. More than Marshall Faulk.

Even in his injury-shortened seasons the past two years, McCaffrey's per-game production was outstanding. In 2020, he averaged just over 30 PPR points per game, nearly five more points per contest than eventual No. 1 back Alvin Kamara. According to Tompkins, McCaffrey averaged 23.6 PPR points per game in his five full games in 2021.

By weight of comparison, Taylor averaged 22.2 points per game.

In addition, McCaffrey isn't just an important part of the Panthers offense. He is the offense—the straw that stirs the proverbial drink. Over the past four years, McCaffrey has averaged 22.4 touches per game.

McCaffrey's career average of 6.2 catches per game extrapolates to 105 catches per 17-game season. A year ago, McCaffrey posted high-end RB2 numbers with his receiving usage alone.

Christian McCaffrey would have been RB14 in fantasy points per game in 2021 (15.4 FPPG).

WITH JUST HIS RECEIVING FANTASY POINTS IN FULL PPR.

If you like scoring fantasy points, there should be no doubt who the 1.01 is. For me, it's CMC and then the rest of the field in 2022. pic.twitter.com/kcRxlJg9CX

— Kevin Tompkins (Can Be Found On BlueSky) (@ktompkinsii) June 11, 2022

That is a jaw-dropping stat. But as we've already seen, it's far from the only one where McCaffrey is concerned. And even if Carolina scales back his workload a bit in an effort to help keep him healthy, he's a lock to see 20 touches every game.

Is there risk involved with drafting Christian McCaffrey? Yes. But there's risk involved with every running back. Injuries are a fact of life at the position, and the last time a league-leading fantasy back finished inside the top-five the following year was Ray Rice in 2011 and 2012. McCaffrey really isn't that much riskier than Taylor or Austin Ekeler of the Chargers.

The notion of "missing" with the first pick terrifies a lot of fantasy managers, so much so that they sacrifice upside for perceived safety. But there's no such thing as a completely safe pick.

McCaffrey isn't measurably riskier than other running backs, and he has a stratospheric fantasy ceiling that no other back can match.

The point of fantasy football isn't to draft the safest team. It's to draft the team that scores the most points. And where running backs are concerned, no one has the potential to score more fantasy points than McCaffrey.

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Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter @IDPSharks.

Back in the long-ago days of 2019, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas had one of the best seasons any wide receiver in NFL history ever has. That year, the 29-year-old led the league in both catches (149) and receiving yards (1,725). His 149 receptions were the most ever in a single season. Thomas won Offensive Player of the Year honors and was the No. 1 wideout in fantasy by over 100 PPR points. The only non-quarterback who had more points that year was Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey.

Since that massive season, however, Thomas' career has followed the same disappointing trajectory as McCaffrey's. In 2020, Thomas caught just 40 passes for 438 yards over seven games in an injury-shortened season. After surgery in the summer of 2021 to repair the same ankle that hampered him the year before, Thomas missed all of last season.

Now, like McCaffrey, Thomas is trying to get his career back on track. But while fantasy managers appear willing to give McCaffrey the benefit of the doubt, Thomas' return is being met with a healthy dose of skepticism. Per the Average Draft Position Data at Fantasy Pros, Thomas is being drafted on average as a lower-end fantasy WR3 at the back end of Round 6.

Is that all Thomas is now? A marginal fantasy starter and mid-round pick whose best days are behind him? Or can Thomas turn back the clock in 2022, recapture past glories and serve as this year's Cooper Kupp—a massive value that leads fantasy managers to championships?

For the first time in a long time, there was tangible good news on the Thomas front—after opening training camp on the PUP list, Thomas was on the practice field Wednesday.

Thomas also spoke to reporters for the first time since the 2020 season, stating that it felt great to finally be back on the field.

Back 💪@Cantguardmike #Saints pic.twitter.com/XVEj15p7M7

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) July 27, 2022

"Man, I'm kind of lost for words," said Thomas. "I didn't want to come up here and get emotional or anything. But it was a blessing to be back out there with the guys."

Saints head coach Dennis Allen was also quite pleased to see Thomas out there, although his optimism was tempered.

"I thought he looked good," Allen said. "I think we've still gotta be smart with him as we go throughout training camp. But I thought it was a good start, having him out there on the first day. I was excited about seeing No. 13 walk out on the field. Listen, Mike Thomas wants to be out here. He wants to help this team win games. And that's his whole mindset and his whole purpose. And he's extremely driven to do that. And I think this was a good step in the right direction."

Thomas also attempted to put to rest any remaining drama over the curious timing of his ankle surgery last year.

"We can put (the 2021 surgery timetable) to rest right now. It's pretty much like when you go to a doctor, you get an opinion. You go to two doctors, one person has an opinion, another person has an opinion. You have the right to pick an opinion. So if one of the opinions is you can rehab your ankle and it should be good by camp, and I've never had surgery, then I'm gonna stick with that one. If that one doesn't work, then I'm gonna go with the second one. And that's pretty much how it worked. I don't write the opinion, I just have to pick one."

Thomas said that he's "very confident" that he will be as good as ever in 2022. And that statement may well be the most important of all for fantasy managers.

It's not like Thomas' record-setting 2019 season was the only time he's posted huge numbers. In 2018, Thomas was first in the league in receptions (125), sixth in receiving yards (1,405), 10th in touchdowns (nine) and sixth in PPR fantasy points. That year, Thomas' catch percentage was a ridiculous 85 percent.

The year before that, Thomas tallied 105 catches for 1,245 yards and five scores—numbers that once again ranked him sixth in PPR points among receivers. As a rookie in 2016, Thomas posted a 92/1,137/9 line that ranked seventh in PPR points at the position.

That's four straight 1,000-yard seasons. Four straight 90-catch seasons. And four straight years as a top-10 fantasy option. Four straight seasons from 2017-2020, Thomas had an ADP inside the top 20 overall at Fantasy Football Calculator. In 2020, he was the fifth overall pick on average.

For several years, Thomas was equal parts prolific and consistent. The gold standard among fantasy wideouts. And if he really is 100 percent (or close to it), then his absolute fantasy ceiling is back among the elite options at the position.

However, there are factors working against Thomas hitting that ceiling that go beyond his ankle. For starters, all that damage that Thomas did was with Drew Brees throwing him the ball. Jameis Winston will be leading the offense in 2022, and he's working his way back from an ACL tear of his own.

The good news in that regard is that Winston is also back on the practice field, and he told reporters that his recovery is progressing well.

"I would say I got more explosive (since minicamp)," he said. "I was good, I was ready to go right then. But it's a progression. The healing process really never stops. I feel stronger right now, but with practice increasing, I know I've got to harp on a couple of things and continue to build."

Winston has shown that he can post big numbers—back in 2019 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Winston led the NFL with 5,109 passing yards. But while Winston did a much better job taking care of the football and avoiding turnovers in his seven starts for the Saints in 2021, his 167.1 passing yards per game was easily a career-low.

Part of that is attributable to a lack in receiving talent in New Orleans, and the Saints will all but certainly improve offensively through the air after ranking dead last in that regard last season. But this probably won't be an especially high-volume passing offense unless the season starts to get away from them and they are forced to play catch-up with regularity.

There's also something in New Orleans this year that wasn't for a big chunk of Thomas' statistical rampage—a viable secondary receiver. From 2016 to 2109, there was only one other wideout on the Saints' roster who topped 70 targets in a season—Brandin Cooks, with 117 in 2016. The Saints didn't spend a first-round pick on Ohio State's Chris Olave so he could watch games unfold, and given the youngster's talent level he's going to be a significant part of the Saints 'passing-game plans.

Add those factors to the fact that Thomas hasn't scored a regular-season touchdown since Dec. 22, 2019, and while a top-12 fantasy season might be possible, it isn't probable. Expecting one certainly isn't reasonable after his long layoff.

Two of the best running backs in the NFL have different outlooks for playing in Week 14. 

Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift is out because of the shoulder injury he suffered on Thanksgiving Day, the team announced Friday.

Joe Mixon, meanwhile, is trending toward playing for the Cincinnati Bengals in their clash with the San Francisco 49ers. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor told reporters he anticipates his star running back will play.

The Mixon news is significant for fantasy football managers who have benefited from his ground success all season. He enters Week 14 on a nine-game touchdown streak.

The waiver wire is thin on running backs thanks to injuries across the league, which makes Mixon's progress more important to some.

Below is a look at injuries that could affect fantasy football matchups Sunday:

• Andy Dalton, QB, CHI: Doubtful (hand), per team injury report
• Adrian Peterson, RB, SEA: Out (back)
• Deebo Samuel, WR, SF: Questionable (hamstring)
• Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF: Out (concussion, knee)
• Justin Fields, QB, CHI: Cleared to play (ribs) 
• Keenan Allen, WR, LAC: Out (Reserve/COVID-19 list)
• Marquise Goodwin, WR, CHI: Doubtful (foot)
• David Montgomery, RB, CHI: Cleared to play (shoulder/groin)
  
• Allen Robinson II, WR, CHI: Cleared to play (hamstring)
• Joe Mixon, RB, CIN: Expected to play (illness)
• David Njoku, TE, CLE: Out (reserve/COVID-19 list), per head coach Kevin Stefanski
• Tony Pollard, RB, DAL: Questionable (foot), per team injury report
• D'Andre Swift, RB, DET: Out (shoulder)
• Darren Walker, TE, LV: Out (knee/back), per team injury report
• Mike Glennon, QB, NYG: Questionable (concussion), per team injury report
  
• Kadarius Toney, WR, NYG: Out (oblique)
• T.J. Hockenson, TE, DET: Doubtful (hand) 
• Tevin Coleman, RB, NYJ: Out (concussion), per team injury report
• Elijah Moore, WR, NYJ: Questionable (quadriceps)

       

D'Andre Swift Out

Detroit handled Swift's absence as well as it could in Week 13.

The Lions called on Jamaal Williams for a heavy workload. He carried the ball on 17 occasions for 71 yards and caught one pass for nine yards.

Williams would typically be the easy replacement off the waiver wire for Swift. However, he's been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.

Jermar Jefferson could be a deep sleeper in fantasy leagues or daily fantasy contests. He backed up Williams with five carries for 18 yards last week.

The options are thin on the waiver wire if you can't pick up one of the Lions backups. Tennessee's D'Onta Foreman and Ty Johnson of the New York Jets have been popular waiver-wire names in the last few weeks because of their increased roles.

The best waiver-wire shot might come from the Seattle Seahawks-Houston Texans game. Rashaad Penny could lead the Seahawks rushing offense against a Houston defense that gives up the most rushing yards in the NFL with Adrian Peterson out due to a lower back injury. 

Seattle might go with a running back by committee, but it presents one of the best chances for success for players with a low roster percentage. 

Houston's Rex Burkhead could be worth a reach as well. He earned 38 carries over the last three weeks. 

    

Joe Mixon Expected To Start

Joe Mixon has challenged Jonathan Taylor for the title of hottest running back in the NFL over the last month-and-a-half.

The Cincinnati running back can't stop finding the end zone, and Week 13 marked the first time in a month that he did not have multiple touchdowns.

Mixon has nine scores dating back to the Week 8 win over the New York Jets. His last seven visits to the end zone came on the ground.

Mixon's high usage and scoring rate make him one of the few must-start players every week in fantasy leagues and DFS contests.

The Bengals need Mixon in the fold to beat the 49ers and remain in the AFC wild-card hunt. They dropped a key head-to-head tiebreaker to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13.

If Mixon's status declines before Sunday, Samaje Perine would be the best fantasy replacement since he would be in line to take over Mixon's production.