Fantasy

The NFL Hall of Fame Game is set for Thursday, which means football season is just around the corner. 

Fantasy season, however, is here. 

As you prepare to engage in your upcoming fantasy draft, you'll find all the tips and tricks you need to know ahead of the 2019 season below, from sleepers to current draft strategy. 

The game of football continues to evolve year to year, and as a result, so does fantasy strategy. Don't be caught out in the cold when it comes to your draft. 

Finally, a note about sleepers: There are many definitions for what constitutes a sleeper, largely depending on the size of your league and your scoring system. For the purpose of these rankings, we'll assume a 12-team league with points-per-reception scoring. A sleeper is therefore defined as a player whose average draft position is lower than what we predict their actual value will be. 

     

2019 Fantasy Sleeper Cheat Sheet

Geronimo Allison, WR, Packers (ADP: 108, WR43): There are a lot of moving parts to head coach Matt LaFleur's new offense for the Packers. The trouble with drafting any Green Bay skill position player is we don't know for sure who will fall into favor with the first-year coach and Aaron Rodgers. But Allison has made case for top-three usage. He had a 121.9 passer rating when targeted last season, and Rodgers always needs reliable hands. 

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers (ADP: 119, WR47): There's a good chance that Valdes-Scantling, in his second season, earns enough trust from Rodgers and LaFleur to become the No. 2 receiver. He already impressed in PPR leagues last season, scoring in double digits five times in seven games despite only posting one touchdown in that period. 

Damien Harris, RB, Patriots (ADP: 154, RB51): Bill Belichick has proved that when it comes to the New England Patriots, any running back can emerge in any given game. Sony Michel is clearly his guy, but he's starting training camp on the PUP list. It would be wise for fantasy managers to keep an eye on Harris, the Patriots' third-round draft pick. 

Jaylen Samuels, RB, Steelers (ADP: 160, RB55): While James Conner is the Steelers' primary back, fantasy managers should keep his injury history in mind. Samuels could be in for a bigger year than his ADP predicts, especially in PPR leagues. Samuels had 199 receiving yards with three touchdowns over 14 games as a rookie. That double-threat potential is intriguing in later rounds. 

Devin Singletary, RB, Bills (ADP: 170, RB58): Fantasy managers have hard evidence that they should be bullish on Devin Singletary; the Bills running back has been receiving first-team reps in training camp and making the most of those opportunities. He's not a known commodity yet, so jump on him now while he's undervalued. 

Jalen Richard, RB, Raiders (ADP: 203, RB65): For those in PPR leagues, Richard is a solid find in the late rounds. Last season, he was able to average double-digit points in nine games and is a pass-catching threat. 

Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals (ADP: 218, TE25): Yes, Eifert is likely going to get injured this season, and his injuries have probably burned your fantasy team in the past. But with A.J. Green out for six to eight weeks, per Adam Schefter, with an ankle injury, Eifert's value in Cincinnati just went up a ton. 

      

Mock Draft Strategy

Seek out do-it-all RBs first

The most dangerous weapon you can acquire for your fantasy team this year is a pass-catching running back, so there's no question that there's a premium on the position. You'll have to seek out these point-generating players—the New York Giants' Saquon Barkley (ADP: 1), Carolina Panthers' Christian McCaffrey (ADP: 3), and the New Orleans Saints' Alvin Kamara (ADP: 4)—with your first-round pick. 

If you hold a bottom-three first-round pick in your 12-team league, however, you may be better off going after a top-five wide receiver like Julio Jones (ADP: 9) or Odell Beckham Jr. (ADP: 13).

     

Don't even think about a QB until Round 4

You're feeling proud that you nailed a top-tier RB1 and WR1 in the first two rounds, and when Round 3 comes along, you're thinking you may as well grab the best QB available to round out your top offensive trio. 

Don't. 

In most leagues, fantasy managers aren't touching the quarterback position until Round 4. The consensus first pass-caller off the board is the Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes (ADP: 37). 

Even if you have a late-third round pick, do not give into the temptation to add Mahomes to your squad. You can pick up a RB2, WR2, or TE1 and still land a difference-making quarterback in Rounds 4 or 5 like Indianapolis' Andrew Luck (ADP: 50) or Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (ADP: 54). 

     

With two exceptions, don't spend a high pick on a TE

There just aren't many difference-makers at the tight end position to make them worth a selection in the top three rounds, save for two notable examples. Fantasy managers are grabbing Kansas City's Travis Kelce (ADP: 8) and San Francisco's George Kittle (ADP: 24) in the first two rounds.

If you have the opportunity to draft either of those players and you're still happy with your starting RB1 or WR1, go ahead and do it. 

However, you can wait until Round 4 or later to select a starting-caliber tight end like Tampa Bay's O.J. Howard (ADP: 45) or the Los Angeles Chargers' Hunter Henry (ADP: 60).

Outside of those two standout early-target tight ends, you're just not going to find the production from the position you will from a standout RB2 or WR2. 

     

All fantasy stats and rankings via FantasyPros unless otherwise noted. 

Now that we're on the other side of the MLB All-Star break, it's officially time to start thinking about nothing but your fantasy football drafts. 

No doubt you have lots of hours perusing rankings, average draft position (ADP) lists and doing mock drafts ahead of you, but right now, the most important task is still at hand: picking a team name for this season. 

Perhaps you landed on a fantastic name years ago and have been repping it ever since. While it's always a thrill to see a tried-and-true moniker engraved on your league trophy year after year, there are so many rookies and young players—not to mention pop culture happenings—that have given us more ideas than ever. 

Maybe this is the year you branch out and rebrand your squad. 

We'll go over some of the best, curated fantasy names for this season and then dig into some advice if you happen to find yourself in a keeper league. 

        

Fantasy Football Team Names

Player and Team Puns

Rollin' with Mahomies

Take Mahomes, Country Road

Brady Gaga

Aaron It Out

Shake It Goff

Hooked on a Thielen

More than a Thielen

Dak to the Future

Green Eggs and Cam

Mack Truck

Diggs in a Blanket

     

2019 Pop Culture

A Team Has No Name

Demogordon

Dak Phoenix

Le'Veon Belle Comes Home

Jet Sematary

Diggs Little Lies

Fresh off the GOAT

The James Conners

     

All-Timers

Fly Like an Eagle

Frozen Tundra

Clash of the Tight Ends

The Hot Route

Sunday Funday

Any Given Sunday

Orange Crush

Purple Reign

         

Keeper Advice

If you're in a dynasty or keeper league, you may be wondering which keepers will get you not only the most bang for your buck this season, but also who you'd want to still be around a season or two from now. 

The consensus among the rankings is that New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley—if you're lucky enough to have him on your team—is the No. 1 player to keep in your lineup heading into 2019.

Obviously, there are very few running backs in the league who can make or break your team in any given week, so if you have one, hang on to him for dear life. 

Another trend? Don't use your keeper slots on quarterbacks, except for very rare circumstances, such as if you happen to have Kansas City Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes. 

Here are the top 32 keepers for this season, per Fantasy Pros, assuming you have three to designate in a 12-team league:

1. Saquon Barkley NYG RB

2. Christian McCaffrey CAR RB

3. DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR

4. Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB

5. Alvin Kamara NO RB

6. Odell Beckham Jr. CLE WR

7. Davante Adams GB WR

8. Michael Thomas NO WR

9. JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR

10. Mike Evans TB WR

11. Joe Mixon CIN RB

12. Melvin Gordon LAC RB

13. Nick Chubb CLE RB

14. Julio Jones ATL WR

15. Todd Gurley LAR RB

16. David Johnson ARI RB

17. Dalvin Cook MIN RB

18. Amari Cooper DAL WR

19. Keenan Allen LAC WR

20. Stefon Diggs MIN WR

21. Antonio Brown OAK WR

22. Travis Kelce KC TE

23. Le'Veon Bell NYJ RB

24. James Conner PIT RB

25. George Kittle SF TE

26. Kenny Golladay DET WR

27. Brandin Cooks LAR WR

28. Kerryon Johnson DET RB

29. Adam Thielen MIN WR

30. A.J. Green CIN WR

31. Patrick Mahomes KC QB

32. Zach Ertz PHI TE

Much to the chagrin of fantasy baseball players everywhere, there's no option to turn off MLB injuries.

Just about every team—real and fantasy alike—has been besieged by ailments through the season's opening three months. Some stars are irreplaceable, but managers have little choice but to settle for the best alternative. Others, meanwhile, have results easier to replicate off the waiver wire. 

On the bright side, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo have all recently returned from the injured list. Mike Clevinger, Noah Syndergaard, Caleb Smith are slated to soon provide solace to those hurting on the pitching front. Unfortunately, they're simply getting replaced with a new wave of sidelined performers.

Even if they're not all rest-of-season mainstays, the players noted below can help fill the void for these injured stars as short-term stopgaps.

      

Injury Report

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees

Giancarlo Stanton's return didn't last long. A week after coming back from a biceps strain, with his return delayed by shoulder and calf injuries, the star slugger injured his knee while sliding into third base.

Another lengthy absence is in the cards. According to ESPN's Coley Harvey, New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman identified August as "the sweet spot" for his return. 

Stanton, who crushed 59 home runs during his 2017 NL MVP campaign, will now pass the All-Star break with just one long ball. While no free agents brandish his same power ceiling, there are at least viable options to recoup some lost power.

Jorge Soler (47 percent) and Franmil Reyes (41 percent) remain rostered in under half of Yahoo leagues despite respectively swatting 21 and 22 homers. Either outfielder can stick around for the long haul.

Per Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling, Justin Smoak could return from a quad injury Friday. While he was batting just .225, the underlying numbers hinted at a forthcoming breakthrough.

The 32-year-old was also setting personal bests in strikeout (16.5 percent) and walk (18.0 percent) rate while swinging at the fewest pitches off the plate in his 10-year career.

These developments show in the Statcast data, per Baseball Savant, as he went on the shelf with a stellar .410 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). 

Adding an impetus to grab Smoak immediately if activated this weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays play seven games culminating in a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles next week. Those needing a quick power fix can also turn to Toronto outfielders Randal Grichuk (22 percent) and Teoscar Hernandez (one percent).

Although certainly not a conventional bopper, Alex Verdugo brought a .300/.350/.481 slash line into the Los Angeles Dodgers' four-game series at Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies are scheduled to start righties in each of the next three games, which is great news for the left-handed rookie.

     

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Investors have been without Tyler Glasnow since May 10, when he fractured his forearm in his eighth start of 2019. Considering his early-season dominance (1.86 ERA, 55 Ks in 48.1 IP), gamers had little choice but to wait patiently in hopes of him returning around the All-Star break.

That's no longer a possibility, though, as the Tampa Bay Rays will shut him down for three weeks following a recent setback. Per Eduardo A. Encina of the Tampa Bay Times, the 25-year-old could optimistically be looking at a mid-August return. Managers in a roster crunch may be better served using the spot to stream starters.

Merrill Kelly remains rostered in just 40 percent of Yahoo and ESPN leagues after ceding two runs with nine strikeouts Sunday against the San Francisco Giants. He gets a rematch against the feeble NL West foe Friday, this time at the cavernous Oracle Park.

The 30-year-old rookie may be proving more than a convenient matchup play. He wields a 2.36 ERA and 32 strikeouts in five starts this month. While he has mustered a middling 57.8 first-pitch strike and 9.5 swinging-strike rate this season, those marks have jumped to 65.4 and 12.0 percent, respectively, in June.

Since San Francisco sports MLB's second-lowest slugging percentage behind the Miami Marlins, keep exploiting their anemic lineup with a pair of San Diego Padres pitchers next week.

Rookie Logan Allen has started his career by allowing two runs in as many starts, tallying five strikeouts in each turn. While Eric Lauer is far less exciting, he'll host the Giants at Petco Park, where he has flourished with a 2.70 ERA.

       

Jordan Hicks, RP, St. Louis Cardinals and Blake Treinen, RP, Oakland Athletics

A pair of prominent closers have already gone down this week, creating a major loss for some and an opportunity for others to snag saves on the waiver wire.

Blake Treinen won fantasy leagues last year by registering a 0.78 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 80.1 innings. This year, he has a ghastly 1.53 WHIP with as many walks (21) relinquished in 45 fewer innings. He surrendered three runs without recording an out in his last appearance before the Oakland Athletics placed him on the injured list with a right shoulder strain.

Although described as mild, there's no timetable for his return. Liam Hendriks is the clear add, as he has registered Oakland's last two saves and lowered his ERA to 1.42 with 10 consecutive scoreless outings. His consensus rostered rate is still just 31 percent. 

According to MLB.com's Martin Gallegos, A's manager Bob Melvin confirmed Hendriks as his new stopper while commending the 30-year-old's ascent up their bullpen hierarchy. 

"He's moved all the way up from a guy that was pitching behind in games for the most part, and now he's got himself in the closer's role," Melvin said. "It's not easy to close a game when you haven't done it often, and against a pretty good lineup. That was impressive."

The St. Louis Cardinals suffered an even bigger blow to the back of their bullpen. Jordan Hicks will miss the remainder of 2019—and part of 2020—to repair a torn ACL by undergoing Tommy John surgery. Per Stu Durando and Rick Hummel of St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said Carlos Martinez will receive the vacated save opportunities.

John Gant, who drew praise from Mozeliak days earlier, is also worth adding in case he factors into the picture. Yet he's claimed in more leagues (48 percent) than Martinez (46 percent), who has notched a 3.00 ERA in relief this season.

                 

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless stated otherwise. Rostered rates, updated as of Thursday evening, obtained from FantasyPros. 

Fantasy baseball managers can no longer brush off shortcomings by pointing to the calendar and remarking on how early it is in the season. With 2019's midway mark rapidly approaching, few teams can afford to maintain the status quo.

Depending on the league's depth and activity, the waiver wire could be a bit more barren than it was in April. It should be far too late to snag Lucas Giolito, Frankie Montas, Tommy La Stella, Franmil Reyes or Yordan Alvarez for free—if not, get on that now. There are nevertheless plenty of viable contributors who remain unclaimed in most formats.

The following three players are all rostered in well under half of Yahoo and ESPN leagues, as reflected by FantasyPros' consensus ownership rates taken Saturday. Although the first two are recommendations for smaller mixed leagues, the third remains available just about everywhere despite swinging a scorching bat and receiving more reps.

              

Sonny Gray, SP, Cincinnati Reds: 36% Rostered

Prior to Sunday afternoon's start against the Texas Rangers, Sonny Gray has the same fielding independent pitching (3.02 FIP) as Walker Buehler and Blake Snell. Even those who would rather look at the actual results shouldn't sneeze at his 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP accompanied by 71 strikeouts in 66.2 innings.

That makes him a top-50 starter who should be owned in an overwhelming majority of leagues. He's instead more widely available than Marco Gonzales, Zach Plesac and Nathan Eovaldi.

Is it possible that, in 2019, managers are still scared away by his 2-6 record? It admittedly isn't easy to rack up wins while only once recording an out past the sixth inning all season. However, Gray has also ceded more than three runs in just one of his 13 starts. The Cincinnati Reds have too much offensive firepower to stay cold at the plate, so don't pay much attention to his misfortune.

There are a couple of more valid concerns. Chief among them is calling Great American Ball Park home. According to ESPN.com's park factors, only Coors Field has fostered a higher scoring environment this season. The 29-year-old righty has paid the price by posting a 4.09 ERA inside the bandbox. 

Gray also mustered seven combined strikeouts in his past two outings after notching at least seven in three starts to close May. His 10.3 swinging-swing percentage is strong, but not elite enough to comfortably project more than a strikeout per frame going forward. Matching his 8.5 strikeouts per nine (K/9) from 2017 and 2018 is a more reasonable expectation.

Even when weighing those caveats, Gray will hold his own simply by maintaining his ERA and WHIP, both of which are in line with his career numbers. Combine that with a healthy number of punchouts and a heavy helping of ground balls, and he's an especially strong fourth or fifth starter for a manager who can carefully play the matchups.

               

Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics: 25% Rostered

Ramon Laureano entered 2019 as a sleeper too popular to garner the label. After hitting .288/.358/.474 in a late 2018 audition, the Oakland Athletics outfielder drew an average draft position (ADP) of No. 181 in National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) drafts from March. Someone reached as high as No. 71 to attain the popular 20/20 candidate.

He has validated that hype by registering nine home runs and eight steals in 71 games. Investors, however, grew tired of the 24-year-old once he hit a lackluster .234/.291/.355 through April. Rather than sticking to their preseason projections, they found another shiny new toy on the waiver wire.

Rostered in just a quarter of Yahoo and ESPN leagues, his ADP from NFBC's in-season drafts (conducted in late May) plummeted to 304. This is someone who has delivered numbers nearly identical to those of Victor Robles.

Laureano isn't going to win any batting titles with an aggressive approach that has yielded a 4.7 percent strikeout and 25.4 percent walk rate. However, he hits the ball hard enough to avoid becoming a liability in the category. Statcast credits him with a .261 expected average (xBA) that at least supports his ability to sustain his .255 clip (h/t Baseball Savant).

Because of his outrageous arm in center field, Laser Ramon has a secure spot in a solid Oakland lineup. With only 18 players reaching double-digit steals, his power-speed combo is alluring in any five-by-five mixed league.

               

Dominic Smith, 1B/OF, New York Mets: 2% Rostered

Dominic Smith has started nine of the past 13 games for the New York Mets (one was played under American League rules against the New York Yankees). He's batting .337/.430/.547 in 100 plate appearances.

Although obtained in a small sample size, Smith has a higher weighted runs created plus (164 wRC+) than Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo and teammate Pete Alonso. He's also younger than Alonso, who supplanted him as the club's current and future first baseman.

Smith, who turned 24 on Saturday, struggled in his first two MLB go-arounds. The once highly touted prospect hit .210 in 105 games dispersed over the past two years. He fell down the totem pole before showing up to camp in better shape and excelling during spring training.

Back in March, per Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News, Smith credited his turnaround to treating his sleep apnea during the offseason.

"I have more energy now," Smith said. "I come to the park feeling good."

As of Saturday, his contact rate has jumped five percent from last season and his walk rate has skyrocketed from 2.7 to 13.0 percent. His hot hand has prompted the Mets to frequently keep him in the lineup—recently as their cleanup hitter—in left field.

Although every batted ball will be an adventure as he maneuvers an unfamiliar position, Smith is worth a speculative add for as long as he's playing. While his batting average is sure to drop once a .403 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) regresses, he still has the makings of a post-hype success story.

               

All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To the delight of fantasy baseball managers, MLB teams are listening to the game's marketing slogan and letting the kids play.

Early in the preseason, several top prospects looked poised to start 2019 in the minors. Like Ronald Acuna Jr. last season, they would "work on their defense" in the minors for a few weeks before suddenly morphing into polished players once their clubs gained an extra year of service time. Some teams, however, unexpectedly skirted those formalities.

The Chicago White Sox bought out Eloy Jimenez's arbitration years with a six-year contract before he made a major league appearance. With no financial incentive to delay his debut, the prized slugger made the Opening Day starting lineup.

Injuries to Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier cleared a role for Pete Alonso, who crushed his way on to the New York Mets with a sizzling spring. Perhaps most surprising of all, the San Diego Padres showed they mean business by welcoming shortstop Fernando Tatis and pitcher Chris Paddack to the majors.

Those four neophytes would have made excellent sleeper picks if drafting weeks ago. For those procrastinators assembling rosters after the season commenced, good luck getting any of them at a reasonable rate.

Anyone who wants Jimenez, Alonso, Paddack or Tatis in a late draft likely must reach a round or three. It should also be far too late to snatch any of them off the waiver wire, so they no longer qualify as sleepers.

After ranking the top rookies for 2019 re-draft leagues—the list would look much different for dynasty formats—let's instead highlight two rookie hitters trending in the opposite direction. Whether starting on the bench or in the minors, these exciting prospects could fall through the cracks.

While the other pitcher is on the rise, he may still merely require a bench flier.

                       

Top Fantasy Baseball Rookies (2019 Re-Draft)

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, TOR

2. Eloy Jimenez, OF, CHW

3. Victor Robles, OF, WAS

4. Pete Alonso, 1B, NYM

5. Chris Paddack, SP, SD

6. Garrett Hampson, 2B, COL

7. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, SD

8. Nick Senzel, 2B/3B, CIN

9. Kyle Tucker, OF, HOU

10. Kyle Wright, SP, ATL

11. Forrest Whitley, SP, HOU

12. Austin Hays, OF, BAL

13. Jesus Luzardo, SP, OAK

14. Alex Verdugo, OF, LAD

15. Luis Urias, 2B/SS, SD

                

Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros

Nothing thrills the fantasy community more than an incoming prospect with boundless potential. That joy, however, quickly evaporates if he's not immediately awesome.

Last season, everyone giddily awaited Kyle Tucker's debut. They had good reason for excitement, as the outfielder batted .332/.400/.590 in Triple-A.

Promoted in July, he proceeded to go 9-for-64 without a home run in a minuscule sample size. Just like that, 2019 drafters treated MLB.com's No. 8 prospect as yesterday's news.

While Tucker begins the season in the minors, his path back to the majors is far from perilous.

Josh Reddick is a solid starter, but not someone who demands job immunity on a World Series contender. He also hasn't played 135 or more games in any of the past three seasons.

Carlos Correa missed Opening Day with a neck injury. Although he's slated to play on Sunday, a prolonged absence could open up a spot for Tucker.

Michael Brantley played just 101 games in 2016 and 2017 combined, so expect Tucker to work his way back to Houston this season. Don't discount an elite talent with five-category upside because of 72 poor plate appearances.

                  

Garrett Hampson, 2B, Colorado Rockies

Just a few days ago, Garrett Hampson would have joined the rookies from the introduction who carry too much hype to ascertain at a fair cost. Although a recent development may jeopardize this buying opportunity, his price may still drop in light of Ryan McMahon's starts at second base for the Colorado Rockies.

Hampson earned an extended look and fantasy adoration by tallying four home runs and seven steals in spring training. But so did McMahon, who went 25-for-59 with nine doubles and three long balls.

While Hampson also made the Opening Day roster, the 24-year-old middle infielder didn't start until the season's third game. Just like that, an immensely popular sleeper could fall by the wayside.

There's too much upside to give up so soon. A career .315/.389/.457 hitter in three minor league seasons, Hampson swiped 123 of 146 tries. Give him playing time in Coors Field, and he will make a major dent.

"We have a lot of good players, so there is no way I'm bitter," Hampson told the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders on Friday. "I'm not freaking out or worrying about anything. I know my time will come."

The following day, he started at second with McMahon handling first-base duties. It appears his time is now:

1B Daniel Murphy has a fracture left index finger. He will see a specialist on Monday and said he expects to be on the 10-day injured list.

— Nick Groke (@nickgroke) March 31, 2019

If Daniel Murphy is sidelined, Hampson and McMahon should both receive regular reps. Perhaps they both can lock down starting roles after Murphy's return if the Rockies realize Ian Desmond is a sunk cost no longer worth salvaging.

                

Kyle Wright, SP, Atlanta Braves

Injuries to Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman opened up spots in the Atlanta Braves' rotation. Despite allowing 10 runs in 12.2 spring frames, Kyle Wright impressed enough to lock down a chance.

Although a poor final outing derailed his strong spring, the 23-year-old righty also compiled 18 strikeouts. The No. 5 pick in 2017 posted a 3.46 ERA in the minors last season with a 54.5 ground-ball rate in 20 Double-A turns, per FanGraphs.

The Vanderbilt alum brings a polished four-pitch repertoire to the table, and he even reached triple digits on the radar gun earlier in March:

#Braves RHP Kyle Wright's first inning: 0 H, 1 BB, 2 K, 18 pitches, 9 strikes. Fastball sat mostly between 94-96. Topped out at 100 on his second pitch of the game but walked that batter on five pitches. Got more under control as inning went on. Both K's came on breaking stuff.

— Sam Dykstra (@SamDykstraMiLB) March 11, 2019

It's also possible, however, that Wright's big-league stay is short. Gausman and Foltynewicz may both rejoin the squad in early April. Starting with Sunday's season debut over the Philadelphia Phillies, Wright must quickly prove his merit to outlast Max Fried and Bryse Wilson.

Wright is a worthy dart throw in the final rounds. Drafters could enjoy a promising breakout arm, but there's no harm in dropping him otherwise. Such roster flexibility is ideal to pounce on early-season breakouts.

Drafting early offers a major advantage for informed fantasy baseball players. Just ask anyone who locked down Domingo Santana weeks or months ago.

In January, the Seattle Mariners outfielder held an average draft position (ADP) of 254 in National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) drafts. That jumped 21 spots in February before climbing all the way to 192 in March.

While that latest going rate is still fair for a slugger who compiled 30 home runs and 15 steals in 2017, anyone drafting this weekend will have to pay a larger tariff. The rising sleeper led supporters to early confirmation bias by going deep twice in Tokyo to start the season.

Those who drafted weeks ago could have cheaply invested in a bounce-back campaign. In leagues that waited until the last minute, he could now fall off the board by the 150th pick.

If writing this article a week or two ago, Santana still could have qualified for the "Breakout Candidates" portion of the sleepers listed below. These are the players whom FanGraphs' Paul Sporer would call "wide-awake sleepers." While popular picks to progress in 2019, they all have a consensus ADP beyond the top 150, per FantasyPros. 

The next group all carry a consensus ADP outside the top 300, making them bench targets in mixed leagues with 30-men rosters. In shallow leagues such as Yahoo Sports' standard game, they could open 2019 on the waiver wire.

While drafters must secure a steady foundation in the early rounds, these cheap upside picks can win leagues. Just ask anyone who stole Blake Snell, Trevor Bauer or Eugenio Suarez last year. 

       

Breakout Candidates

Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians

Ketel Marte, 2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

Garrett Hampson, 2B/SS, Colorado Rockies

Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics

Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins

Tyler Glasnow, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays

Joe Musgrove, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Tyler Skaggs, SP, Los Angeles Angels

Jose Alvarado, RP, Tampa Bay Rays

Trevor May, RP, Minnesota Twins

     

Deeper Finds

Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Washington Nationals

Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Detroit Tigers

Leonys Martin, OF, Cleveland Indians

Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals

Derek Holland, SP, San Francisco Giants

Trevor Richards, SP, Miami Marlins

Matt Strahm, SP/RP, San Diego Padres

Joe Jimenez, RP, Detroit Tigers

     

Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians

Opportunity is often half the battle. While some sleepers (Garrett Hampson, Matt Strahm, Trevor May) only need a chance to morph into major fantasy commodities, Jake Bauers is here because of his role.

The Cleveland Indians acquired the 23-year-old to replace Michael Brantley in their outfield, and they'll need immediate production to retain their AL Central crown. Roster Resource projects Bauers to bat fifth in a lineup headlined by Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor (once he returns from a calf injury).

Lindor and Ramirez plated 129 and 110 runs, respectively, last season. Projected cleanup hitter Carlos Santana is more patient than incumbent Edwin Encarnacion, so the walk artist could cede RBI opportunities to his new teammate.

Bauers burst out of the gate to slug .491 through his first 47 big league games, only to bat .153 with three homers in August and September. He discussed his roller-coaster arrival with Matthew Florjancic of WKYC.

"Coming in, getting called up and having that immediate success was great in terms of establishing myself and establishing, 'Hey, I can do this. I belong here,'" Bauers said. "It kind of gave me a confidence boost, and then, it quickly turned the other way and I got humbled a little bit."

Nobody truly knows which version of Bauers will surface in 2019, but he's a starter batting in the heart of a top-heavy lineup who notched 16 homers and steals apiece through the minors and majors last season.

Even with a mediocre batting average, he can deliver as a corner infielder or fourth outfielder with 20-plus homers, double-digit steals, and a lofty RBI tally.

      

Joe Musgrove, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Jameson Taillon is gaining traction as a popular—but increasingly pricey—option after the top-tier aces. It wouldn't be shocking, however, if Joe Musgrove emerged as the Pittsburgh Pirates' ace.

Despite posting a 4.06 ERA in 19 starts, the righty showed skill gains foreshadowing a breakout. Chief among them, he issued just 23 walks in 115.1 innings, giving him a lower walk percentage (4.7) than Taillon and all but a dozen starters with at least 100 frames.

That pinpoint control could lead to great things if he ups his strikeouts from last year's 100. An 11.4 percent swinging-strike rate suggests he can do just that. Zack Godley collected 185 strikeouts in 178.1 innings with the identical proportion of swing and misses.

For all the talk of Taillon finding success with his new slider, his teammate also deployed his own more often down the stretch. Per Brooks Baseball, his slider usage percentages increased in June, July and August. Although Musgrove fizzled in September (5.40 ERA), he also posted a 1.01 WHIP and 3.50 fielding independent pitching (FIP) after the All-Star break. 

Musgrove throws strikes and induces whiffs. He'll also work roughly half of his starts inside the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. It doesn't get much better than that from a cheap starter.

The late-round pick should at least deliver value as a matchup play. Just don't let the low strikeout rate fool you; he's also an upside play who could make a leap similar to Taillon's 2018 breakout.

      

Jorge Soler, OF, Kansas City Royals

Spring stats can often lead drafters into an unwarranted tizzy. Yet when a player coming off a significant injury proves he's healthy and locks down a starting job, it's wise to take notice.

While Jorge Soler wasn't dominating in fantasy leagues using standard scoring, he sported a 123 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) rating prior to fracturing his foot in June. He offered nine long balls in 61 games with a 10.9 walk percentage. Per Baseball Savant, he achieved an average exit velocity of at least 95 mph on 41.0 percent of his batted balls.

A 331 consensus ADP on FantasyPros suggests most drafters already forgot about his immense talent when healthy. He has done his best to refresh their memory by belting four doubles and four homers in 17 spring contests. 

According to MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost said Soler is "going to play every day somewhere." Given the desolate nature of their lineup, he could also earn favorable placement in the batting order.

Yost's declaration is likely unattainable, as Soler has never played more than 101 major league games in a season. They haven't decided if he will patrol the outfield or serve as the designated hitter, but the second option could help his chances of avoiding another lengthy injury absence.

Given an assurance of playing time after succeeding in limited work last season, health may be the only obstruction to Soler submitting 20-25 homers. Although expectations have significantly dropped since his torrid 2014 arrival, he's still an intriguing end-of-draft flier.

      

Note: Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted

The Indian Premier League returns on Saturday for its 2019 season, and with its return comes the IPL Fantasy League.

It's free to enter, and players can sign up here.

The IPL Fantasy Tournament runs throughout the season, and there are also Daily Challenges, in which players can create teams for each round of matches.

Here's a look at the rules for the 2019 IPL Fantasy Tournament, as well as tips and player recommendations:

              

Selection Rules

Entrants have 100 credits to spend on their team, which will be comprised of 11 IPL players.

Each team must consist of:

• At least one wicketkeeper (maximum two)
• At least three batsmen (maximum five)
• At least one all-rounder (maximum three)
• At least three bowlers (maximum five)
• At least one uncapped Indian player
• Maximum of four overseas players
• No more than seven players from one IPL franchise

                 

Users can make up to five free trades before each round's deadline. Any additional "Premium Trades" will incur a cost of 10 points each.

                      

Points Breakdown

Batsmen will receive:

• 0.5 points per run
• 0.5 points per boundary bonus
• 1 point per six scored
• 4 points for a half-century
• 8 points for a century
• -2 points if dismissed for a duck

                   

Bowlers will receive:

• 10 points per wicket, excluding run-outs
• 4 points for taking four wickets in a single match
• 8 points for taking five wickets in a single match
• 4 points per maiden over

                     

Fielders will receive:

• 4 points per catch
• 6 points per stump/run-out
  
• 4 points per throw leading to a run-out
• 2 points per catch leading to a run-out

                      

Users may nominate a captain and a vice-captain ahead of each round. The former receives double points, while the latter receives 1.5 times points.

All players earn two points per appearance in their side's starting XI.

Further information on scoring points can be found here.

         

Tips

When it comes to picking your team initially and then making trades during the season, you'll want to know which players perform consistently year to year and who's hot right now.

The IPL's official website has you covered there, and its extensive stats section will be one of your best resources, whether you want to know who is scoring the most runs or delve into more in-depth metrics like strike rates.

You'll also need to strike the right balance between star players and bargain buys.

To keep your 11-man team from going over your 100-credit budget, you essentially need to average a cost of nine credits per player.

Many of the biggest names, like Royal Challengers Bangalore batsman Virat Kohli, can cost 10 credits or more. Kohli himself will set you back 11.5.

Lastly, the IPL runs from March 23 to May 5, with at least one fixture every day in that time. As such, keeping a close eye on your Round Status, which will tell you when one round ends and another begins, will prevent you from missing the valuable trade windows between each round.

                            

Players to Target

Sunil Narine, Kolkata Knight Riders

Cost: 10.5

Where else to start but Kolkata Knight Riders' Sunil Narine, who has been the Fantasy League's MVP in each of the last two seasons.

The all-rounder topped the pile in 2017 with 298 points, while last year he scored 379.5.

The IPL veteran, who will be competing in his eighth season, has become a potent scorer with bat and ball in recent years, which allows him to rack up points on both fronts.

In 2018, he scored 357 runs and grabbed 17 wickets. If he can produce a similar season in 2019, he'll likely be in contention to top the points standings for a third year running.

       

Rishabh Pant, Delhi Capitals

Cost: 9.5

The Delhi Capitals' Rishabh Pant was the second-highest scoring batsman in the IPL last year.

Only the Sunrisers Hyderabad's Kane Williamson plundered more than his 684, and the New Zealander played three more innings.

Despite scoring fewer runs than Williamson, Pant scored higher in terms of fantasy points having recorded more fours and sixes and scored a century.

He also made four catches and two stumps, making him a multi-varied threat like Narine.

At 9.5 credits, he's also relatively inexpensive considering only Narine and Shane Watson scored more points than him last year.  

Anyone seeking fantasy baseball advice for a dynasty league must first conduct a thorough assessment for league and team context.

Few dynasty leagues are built the same, and managers will take different routes in hopes of reaching the same title destination. Some like to hoard young talent in hopes of patiently building a superteam down the road. Others will ride the undervalued veterans to immediate success.

These rankings—available in full here—take the author's more balanced approach into mind. It's possible to win now without an AARP roster while simultaneously targeting younger players with the present and future in mind.

But don't just draft or make transactions straight from those rankings without first considering your circumstances. Nelson Cruz is going to help an immediate contender more than a rebuilding squad, who should be highly motivated to pursue an elite prospect such as Jo Adell or Royce Lewis.

The scoring, of course, also affects each player's value. This order is based on rotisserie leagues using standard five-by-five categories. Also, keep in mind that prospects may have less value in a shallower league with a smaller (or no) farm system.

With all of those disclaimers out of the way, let's pinpoint a pair of both MLB players and prospects to seek out in a trade or start-up draft.

      

Dynasty Rankings

1. Mike Trout, OF, LAA

2. Mookie Betts, OF, BOS

3. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, ATL

4. Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE

5. Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, CLE

6. Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL

7. Bryce Harper, OF, PHI

8. Manny Machado, 3B/SS, SD

9. Christian Yelich, OF, MIL

10. Alex Bregman, 3B/SS, HOU

11. Juan Soto, OF, WAS

12. Aaron Judge, OF, NYY

13. Trea Turner, SS, WAS

14. Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU

15. Andrew Benintendi, OF, BOS

16. Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, CHC

17. Carlos Correa, SS, HOU

18. Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

19. J.D. Martinez, OF, BOS

20. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, TOR

21. Trevor Story, SS, COL

22. Javier Baez, 2B/SS/3B, CHC

23. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, NYY

24. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, LAA (Note: Rank is contingent on hitter and pitcher eligibility)

25. Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS

26. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD

27. Chris Sale, SP, BOS

28. Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM

29. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC

30. Blake Snell, SP, TB

31. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, STL

32. Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL

33. Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS

34. Gerrit Cole, SP, HOU

35. Rhys Hoskins, 1B/OF, PHI

36. Max Scherzer, SP, WAS

37. Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, NYY

38. Walker Buehler, SP, LAD

39. Eloy Jimenez, OF, CHW

40. Aaron Nola, SP, PHI

41. Luis Severino, SP, NYY

42. Corey Seager, SS, LAD

43. Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL

44. Eugenio Suarez, 3B, CIN

45. Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM

46. Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS

47. Trevor Bauer, SP, CLE

48. Corey Kluber, SP, CLE

49. Victor Robles, OF, WAS

50. J.T. Realmuto, C, PHI

     

Major League Targets

Michael Conforto, OF, New York Mets

Overall Rank: No. 51

Possessing a No. 109 consensus ADP on FantasyPros, Michael Conforto makes a compelling mid-draft target in 2019 leagues. Perhaps dynasty gamers can also lock into a long-term cornerstone at a bargain.

New York Mets fans will fondly remember the glory days of early 2017, when analysts suggested Conforto was the Big Apple's top young outfielder over Aaron Judge. Of course, they didn't know the New York Yankees slugger would end the season with a rookie-record 52 homers. 

They also couldn't envision Conforto suffering a dislocated shoulder that ended his breakout campaign while hindering his initial availability for 2018. (Unless they're a cynical Mets fan like this writer, in which case they would think it seemed like the normal thing to happen.)

Before Conforto's 2017 ended prematurely, he had already deposited 27 homers in 109 games with a 147 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which ranked 13th among batters with at least 400 plate appearances.

Although his wRC+ dropped to 120 last season, that still made him 20 percent better than the average major league hitter despite batting .216 before the All-Star break.

He looked far more like his old self down the stretch, mounting a .273/.356/.539 slash line with 17 long balls in 68 second-half games. Now that he's fully healthy, the 26-year-old should repair last year's .243 average by veering closer to 2017's 41.6 hard-hit percentage.

Even if he doesn't ascend into an upper-echelon star, Conforto will be a steady bet for 30-35 homers on a yearly basis.

             

Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Overall Rank: No. 100

Like Conforto, Luis Castillo could prove difficult to obtain if rostered by an informed owner.

Some disgruntled shareholders might only see last year's highly underwhelming 4.30 ERA. Others might still see a hard-thrower with elite stuff who rebounded from early setbacks.

One of last year's trendiest breakout picks, Castillo quickly crushed those hopes by allowing 25 runs (all earned) through his first six starts.

He was unusable for half the season before turning the corner in July:

• Through June: 17 GS, 82.2 IP, 5.85 ERA, 85 K, 33 BB
• July-September: 14 GS, 82.0 IP, 2.63 ERA, 80 K, 16 BB

While he may not maintain the summer's elite command, a 61.4 first-pitch strike rate suggests he can at least avoid the earlier portion's sky-high walk rate.

He should also have no trouble continuing to strike out more than a batter per inning; his 13.5 swinging-strike percentage placed eighth among all qualified pitchers in 2018. 

Castillo remains a potential ace who should at least pitch closer to his 3.85 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) in 2019. It might especially be worth buying low if he gets off to another sluggish start. 

     

Prospect Targets

Nick Senzel, 3B, CIN

Overall Rank: No. 84

Nick Senzel was supposed to be in the bigs by now.

A polished prospect selected second overall in 2016's amateur draft, the third baseman seemed set for a quick minor league stay by hitting .321/.391/.514 between High-A and Double-A.

He may have at least received an opportunity to break camp last spring if not for Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett blossoming at third and second base, respectively.

Senzel nevertheless looked poised to give Cincinnati a tough decision when wrecking Triple-A pitching to a .310/.378/.509 slash line. Yet vertigo derailed his progress in May, and his season ended in June with a torn tendon in his right index finger.

Investors might be losing patience with the 23-year-old, who remains blocked by Suarez and Gennett. Now could be the perfect time to get Senzel at a discount.

MLB.com's sixth-ranked prospect, who tried to pick up shortstop to avoid the positional logjam last season, has taken reps in center field this spring. Per C. Trent Rosecrans of Baseball America, Senzel said he is having an easier time adjusting to this new spot.

"I picked up center better than I picked up short," he said. "It made me feel a little more comfortable—(because I can) just go be athletic and go out there and try to use my speed and first step and track down balls."

The Reds roster a bunch of outfielders (Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Jesse Winker, Scott Schebler), but none of them are well suited to handle center field. That could finally clear up a spot for Senzel, who could shift to second base when Gennett becomes a free agent next offseason.

     

Austin Hays, OF, Baltimore Orioles

Overall Rank: No. 242

This time last spring, few prospects garnered more buzz than Austin Hays. Fresh off hitting .329 with 32 homers in the minors, he looked poised to assume a starting role for the Baltimore Orioles.

He instead submitted a .266 on-base percentage in Double-A. The sudden decline removed him from fantasy radars, but that was before he clobbered three doubles, a triple and five home runs in 13 spring training games.

The 23-year-old looks fully recovered from an ankle injury that required season-ending surgery. Hays also, according to the Baltimore Sun's Jon Meoli, lost around 15-20 pounds by eliminating sugars and carbohydrates from his diet. 

"It was a lot of weight just kind of blasting into the ankle," Hays said in regards to the change from last year. "I just feel light on my feet. I feel quick and fast."

Despite a stellar spring, the Orioles optioned Hays to Triple-A. Given their bleak roster, however, it's only a matter of time before he gets promoted.

Hays won't draw many walks or pile up steals, but he brandishes immense raw power with the ability to hit for a high average. He's the quintessential post-hype target to secure in dynasty formats before everyone purchases a ticket back on the bandwagon.

      

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

The weather is getting warmer, pitchers and catchers have reported, and Bryce Harper finally signed with a team. The MLB offseason is almost in the rearview mirror and, as a result, fantasy drafts are coming up fast. 

What's in a name? A rose by any other name would smell as sweet, right? Maybe, but winning your 2019 MLB league with a Shakespeare-inspired team name like Machado About Nothing would be even sweeter. 

Take a look below for creative, funny and, yes, "punny" fantasy baseball team names inspired by your favorite players, favorite teams and the most relevant pop-culture references that definitely won't be stale in five months. 

Now all you have to think about is the draft. 

     

Player Puns

Machado About Nothing

Acuna Matata

A to the Rizzo

Come Sale Away

Vlad to the Bone 

Mookie Monster

Rhys's Pieces

Bryce Bryce Baby

A Puig Of Their Own

Puigs in a Blanket

That'll Do Puig, That'll Do

Hate Us Cuz Yoenis

deGromogorgen

Bryce Krispie Treats

Bryce Is Right

Stanton Room Only

Shohei The Meaning Of Being Lonely

If You Give a Mouse a Mookie

Weird Flexen, But OK

If you want to use a Manny Machado or Harper inspired fantasy baseball team name, you'll have to make sure you pick a better one than your friends, who inevitably have the same idea. 

Machado About Nothing is a no-brainer if you're the literary type, and there's a nice bit of irony to it as well, considering that, when he made headlines for agreeing to the biggest deal in North American sports with his 10-year, $300 million San Diego Padres contract, it was quite a bit of ado about something. 

Harper, meanwhile, has inspired his fair share of fantasy team names; it's hard to find an original take. But the new Philly is almost sure to be one of the most popular sources of inspiration this season.

For a truly original team name and one that Stranger Things fans especially will love, deGromogorgen might be your best bet. 

     

Team Puns

Bloody Sox

Angels in the Outfield

We Were Giants

The Cardinals Way

My Blue Jays Heaven

Friendly Confines

Wrigley Blue Ivy 

Citi Slickers

Team-inspired fantasy baseball names can stick with you through thick and thin.

You can use them year after year if your team is a league powerhouse; if your favorite player leaves for sunnier climes or your team fails to land the year's biggest free agent, your team name doesn't have to make you cringe every time you look at it. 

These are the classics; oldies but goodies, some, and new plays on changing stadium names. 

But maybe stay away from Guaranteed Rate Field-inspired names...unless you're a merciless Chicago Cubs fan. 

     

Pop Culture Puns

Dr. Strangeglove

Game of Strike Zones

108 Stitches

Man of Steal

Fielder of Dreams

Lil Sebastian's Favorite Team

Lovable Losers

WAR Machine

I Am Groot

Guardians of the American/National League

Hodor's Hodors

Far from the Shallow Now

A Star Is Born

No one said you have to name your fantasy team after a player or a team. Sometimes, it's more fun to see how many obscure pop culture references your friends will (or won't) understand.

You can change with the tides, taking inspiration from the movies, TV shows, songs and more that are popular this year. Not to mention the memes.

Go wild; if your friends and co-workers don't get your references, it just means you're cooler than them. 

Constructing a winning fantasy baseball squad requires landing late-round and free-agent gems while setting the right lineups and working the trade market. Before worrying about those essential steps, drafters must first nail the early rounds.

It's not as easy as it seems. Just ask anyone who selected Joey Votto, Gary Sanchez or Yu Darvish near the top last year. Even the studs combust more than fantasy players want to believe.

Every winner starts with a strong and stable foundation. How does one go about optimizing the opening rounds? Practice with as many mock drafts as possible to pinpoint a preferred draft strategy.

To get a sense of my general draft approach, let's look at a 12-team mock draft I conducted using FantasyPros' Draft Wizard. I picked against the site's consensus average draft position (ADP) using Yahoo Sports' standard roster spots for a five-by-five rotisserie league. I randomly drew the 10th pick, one of the trickiest spots to navigate in a player pool with no universal locks beyond Mike Trout and Mookie Betts.

Before diving into an ideal draft approach, here are my top-400 rankings, updated as of Monday. 

      

Mock Draft Results

1.10: Ronald Acuna, OF, ATL

2.15: Manny Machado, SS/3B, SD

3.34: Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE

4.39: Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS

5.58: Lorenzo Cain, OF, MIL

6.63: Daniel Murphy, 1B/2B, COL

7.82: Zack Wheeler, SP, NYM

8.87: Nelson Cruz, DH, MIN

9.106: Matt Olson, 1B, OAK

10.111: Jose Leclerc, RP, TEX

11.130: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PHI

12.135: Yu Darvish, SP, CHC 

        

Draft Strategy

Seek Early Stability

There are plenty of opportunities to take chances on upside. Don't do it too early, though.

The beginning rounds are not the time to make boom-or-bust gambits. Take reliable producers, and then shoot for the stars in the middle to late turns. 

Ronald Acuna Jr. admittedly does not fit this advice, but let's make an exception for a 21-year-old superstar who batted .293/.366/.552 with 26 homers and 16 steals in 111 games last season. Alas, I would have celebrated if one of the bankable four-category studs (J.D. Martinez or Nolan Arenado) or Max Scherzer fell to the 10th slot.

Manny Machado, meanwhile, has compiled at least 33 homers in 156 games during each of the last four seasons. A .259 average from 2017 stands out as a clear outlier for the career .282 hitter, so he's still a stable top-15 selection despite signing with the San Diego Padres.

Instead of making a trendy pick in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., just take Anthony Rendon. He may not feel as exciting, but the Washington Nationals third baseman batted .311/.376/.550 with 23 homers in 101 games after returning from an oblique injury. Drafters would be ecstatic if the hotshot rookie delivered those numbers, so why not take the Texan's track record and established role?

Lorenzo Cain is a relatively boring fifth-round pick, but he's an effective one who has batted .300 with at least 10 homers and 25 steals in consecutive years. He should keep batting ahead of Christian Yelich atop the Milwaukee Brewers' lineup.

Daniel Murphy could win another batting title with help from Coors Field, and seriously, what does everyone have against Nelson Cruz? The designated hitter is one of the game's best bets to provide 35-40 homers for a significant discount. 

A steady foundation makes it much easier to gamble on low-risk, high-reward fliers in the final rounds.

         

Grab an Ace

Common convention has preached against spending significant draft capital on starting pitching. It's time to revisit this mindset.

Only 32 starters worked at least 180 innings last year, and just 13 reached 200. Elite workhorses thus deserve more credit as increasingly scarce commodities. 

The extra injury and performance risk has steered drafters away from pitchers in the early rounds. That seems to go hand-in-hand with the earlier point about seeking stability.

However, FanGraphs' Ariel Cohen determined that top-tier aces have returned more value than starters taken at any other point of the draft. 

"The key is that the riskiness of a front-line starter is now no greater than that of a superstar hitter," he wrote. "With fewer 200 IP/200 K pitchers these days, the top pitchers are indeed superstars, and may be treated just as the hitters would."

The talent pool dries out in a hurry, especially with Luis Severino (shoulder) out until May and Clayton Kershaw unlikely to pitch on Opening Day.

Anyone who passes on the top-12 aces will suddenly feel compelled to reach for a second-tier upside arm (Jameson Taillon, Mike Clevinger, Jack Flaherty) or hope Stephen Strasburg or James Paxton somehow stays healthy.

Just pay market price for an ace. This doesn't mean it's imperative to snag Scherzer, Jacob deGrom or Chris Sale in the opening round. Getting the latter two in the early second, however, isn't a terrible idea. (They went ninth and 11th, respectively, in this mock.)

For those who draw an early pick, target Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in the late second or early third. From the 10th slot, I had my choice of a different pair of teammates in Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer. 

Either one makes a fine staff anchor, but Carrasco offers more stability after posting a stellar ERA (3.29 and 3.38) and strikeout tally (226 and 231) in each of the last two seasons. After solidifying one headliner, wait a bit before dipping back into the waters.

     

Pay (A Bit) For Saves

Along with securing one top-flight starter, get at least one trustworthy closer with a definitive ninth-inning job.

Those types of relievers are also tougher to find than ever. Only 20 recorded at least 20 saves in 2018. Just 11 reached 30. In 2015, 21 players tallied 30 or more saves.

Just like with aces, this doesn't mean it's imperative to lunge for Edwin Diaz or Blake Treinen. Target the second tier of studs available near or after the top-100 picks.

In this mock, that man was Jose Leclerc. Virtually unhittable in 2018, the righty notched a 1.56 ERA with a .123 opposing batting average and 85 strikeouts in 57.2 innings. He didn't allow a run after July 25:

Jose Leclerc last 21 games of 2018:
21.0 IP, 0 ER
32 strikeouts, 6 walks
Opponents batted .075
Opponents slugged .119

— Jeremy Frank (@MLBRandomStats) March 9, 2019

As a result, the Texas Rangers have named Leclerc their closer and signed him to a four-year extension. He's not too expensive for someone with the skills to make the same seismic leap to stardom as Diaz did last season.

Felipe Vazquez and Brad Hand are also superb closer targets, but both went in the eighth round of this simulation. That's a tad too steep, especially when everyone—as usual—forgot about Cruz. I often end up with Leclerc or Kirby Yates, who went the pick before I snagged Texas' ninth-inning stopper.

After grabbing one high-quality reliever, wait a bit for cheaper speculative grabs. Matt Barnes, Trevor May and Pedro Strop could each transfer elite strikeout rates to the final frame. Even guys such as Seranthony Dominguez and A.J. Minter could deliver value by snatching 10-15 saves in a committee.